10/28/13 Road Court Advantage: The Curious Case of Paul Millsap's Perimeter Shooting

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Leave a c o mmentB y Jac o b Eis enb erg

Oc to b er 26, 20 13 at 5 :45 P M

Road Court Advantage: The Curious Case of PaulMillsap’s Perimeter Shooting

It ’ s no s ec re t that P au l M il ls ap is o ne o f the league ’ s mo s t

und errated b ig men. The to p ic has b een d is c us s ed at

length b y b lo ggers fo r years and , ye t , the lac k o f c red it he

c o n t inues to rec e ive is b o rd erl ine c riminal.

H o w und errated is M il ls ap exac t ly? In every s eas o n s inc e

20 10 -20 11, he ’ s ranked amo ng the league ’ s b es t 30 in

e f f ic ienc y. M il ls ap ’ s 31.5 c umu lat ive Es t imated Wins

Ad d ed fo r the Jaz z s inc e 20 10 ranks h im ahead o f rival

p o wer fo rward s C hris B o s h, Kevin G arne t t and D avid Wes t (and o n p ar w ith D irk N o w itz ki) o ver the

s ame t ime p erio d .

Regard les s o f h is c o ns is tenc y, M il ls ap d id n ’ t rec e ive o verwhe lming in te res t in f ree agenc y and end ed

up s ign ing w ith the H awks fo r two years and $19 mil l io n . H e w il l b e earn ing les s mo ney in 20 13-20 14

than e ithe r M ehmet Okur o r S tep hen Jac ks o n.

So me p und its rec o gn iz e h is talen t , b u t , fo r whatever reas o n, exc lud e h im f ro m the d is c us s io n o f the

b es t b igs in the league. P erhap s th is c an b e at t rib u ted to M il ls ap ’ s s eemingly unaes the t ic p lay ing s ty le .

H e b ru is es in the p ain t , o verp o wers fo r reb o und s , and f in is hes s t ro ng at the rim. Wh ile b as ke tb al l

p u ris ts d ro o l o ver h is e f fo rt o n the c o urt , i t ’ s no t q u ite as p re t ty to watc h as a S tep hen C urry p u l l- up

th ree.

N o ne o f th is is news , o f c o urs e .

B u t here ’ s s o meth ing in te res t ing:

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10/28/13 Road Court Advantage: The Curious Case of Paul Millsap's Perimeter Shooting

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Ab o ve is M il ls ap ’ s s ho t c hart f ro m las t s eas o n w ith the Jaz z (c o urtes y o f H o ts ho tc harts .c o m). As yo u

c an s ee, he ge ts mo s t o f h is p ro d uc t io n f ro m ins id e the p ain t . Wh ile he has s o me to uc h f ro m

mid range, he is far mo re e f fec t ive w ith f ines s e s ho ts w ith in f ive fee t o f the rim.

M il ls ap has mad e s t rid es f ro m b eh ind the arc . Onc e c o ns id ered an o f fens ive f lo o r c lo gger fo r h is lac k

o f range, he has , in general, tu rned in to a p re t ty d ec en t s t re tc h fo rward . Las t year, M il ls ap at temp ted a

c areer- h igh 39 3-p o in te rs and c o nverted 13 o f them, go o d fo r 33%. Wh ile that p erc en tage is no th ing

to w rite ho me ab o ut, i t has mad e h im c o ns id erab ly mo re d ynamic and e f fec t ive o n the c o urt .

H ere ’ s s o me p ro o f:

In 20 11-20 12, M il ls ap ’ s mo s t e f fec t ive th ree-man p airing amo ng al l h is Jaz z teammates c ame when he

s hared the c o urt w ith fe l lo w b igs A l Je f fe rs o n and D erric k Favo rs (v ia b as ke tb al l- re fe renc e.c o m).

What d o es th is mean?

Well, fo r s tarte rs , i t means that M il ls ap is no lo nger the o ne-d imens io nal b ru is e r h is rep u tat io n

s ugges ts . Je f fe rs o n and Favo rs o c c up ied the p ain t wh i le M il ls ap extend ed h is game o u t to the

p erimete r. In the s e ld o m 113 minu tes o f c o urt t ime to ge ther, the t rio o u ts c o red o p p o nents b y 33.4

p o in ts p er 10 0 p o s s es s io ns . That ’ s s imp ly unheard o f te rri to ry. Las t s eas o n, the t rio s hared the c o urt

fo r even les s t ime (85 .8 minu tes ) b u t s t i l l p ro ved to b e e f fec t ive (+ 5 p o in ts p er 10 0 p o s s es s io ns ).

B u t the re ’ s mo re to M il ls ap ’ s p erimete r s ho o t ing. Lo o k at th is :

Th is is M il ls ap ’ s s ho t c hart at ho me las t s eas o n. Wh ile h is o f fens e in the p ain t s tayed at an e l i te leve l,

s o meth ing mo re o b vio us s tand s o u t : h is 3-p o in t s ho o t ing b ec ame a no n- fac to r. M il ls ap mad e jus t o ne

o f h is n ine at temp ted 3-p o in te rs at ho me las t s eas o n. Wh ile th is c o u ld b e a c al l fo r c o nc ern , i t migh t

als o b e a w ind o w in to a revo lu t io nary way to lo o k at matc hup s and l ineup p airings fo r N B A c o ac hes

6 0 0 16 19 25 7 5

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10/28/13 Road Court Advantage: The Curious Case of Paul Millsap's Perimeter Shooting

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go ing fo rward .

Le t ’ s c o n tras t h is s ho o t ing at ho me w ith h is p ro d uc t io n o n the ro ad :

M il ls ap , away f ro m ho me, to o k 30 s ho ts f ro m the p erimete r and mad e 12 o f them. H e mad e th ree mo re

s ho ts f ro m d eep o n the ro ad than he even at temp ted at ho me.

Ob vio us ly, i t ’ s a s mall s amp le s iz e to d raw f ro m. B u t res t as s ured : th is is no t an ano maly. Over the p as t

th ree s eas o ns , s inc e M il ls ap has exp and ed h is s ho o t ing to uc h, he has s ho t o n ly 22.6% fro m th ree at

ho me (7 - fo r-31) and 35 .5 % fro m th ree o n the ro ad (22- fo r-62).

Th ink ab o u t that fo r a mo ment. M il ls ap is an en t ire ly d if fe ren t o f fens ive p layer o n the ro ad than he is at

ho me. Fo r s tarte rs , jus t the fac t that he has taken tw ic e as many th rees o n the ro ad s ho ws that he is

s ign if ic an t ly mo re c o n f id en t w ith h is s ho t away f ro m ho me. H is 3-p o in t p erc en tage o n the ro ad o ver

the p as t th ree s eas o ns lo o ks nearly id en t ic al to G ary N eal, M arc o B e l l ine l l i o r JR Smith ’ s p erc en tages

f ro m las t s eas o n. (A ls o , we l l ahead o f Ko b e B ryan t , C hris P au l o r Luo l D eng’ s .)

M eanwh ile , at ho me, M il ls ap ’ s 3-p o in t s ho o t ing is mo re c o mp arab le to Rajo n Ro nd o o r M ic hae l Kid d -

G ilc h ris t .

When I to ld M il ls ap ab o u t h is d is p ari ty, he was no t exac t ly s u rp ris ed :

“Fo r me, i t ’ s always b een the c as e that I l ike p lay ing o n the ro ad ,” M il ls ap s aid . “Yo u and yo ur

teammates jus t have an ext ra c h ip o n yo ur s ho u ld er s o that wo rks we l l fo r me, p ers o nal ly. I b e l ieve I

s ho t mo re in rhythm o n the ro ad las t s eas o n.”

It ’ s fas c inat ing to th ink ab o u t. Why d o n ’ t c o ac hes

p lac e mo re imp o rtanc e o n the analyt ic s b eh ind

ho me- ro ad s p l i ts to make l ineup c hanges

ac c o rd ingly? Af te r al l , the s hared s en t iment aro und

the en t ire H awks ’ lo c ker ro o m is that p lay ing o n the

ro ad is a to tal ly d if fe ren t an imal to p lay ing at ho me.

“I d o n ’ t kno w what i t is b u t I fee l l ike I’m mo re fo c us ed o n the ro ad to o ,” ad mit ted Jo hn Jenkins .

“There ’ s s o meth ing ab o u t b e ing in that new enviro nment. I jus t lo c k in b e t te r I gues s .”

Wh ile s uc c es s o n the b as ke tb al l c o urt is n ’ t c o ns id ered to b e as mental ly d ep end ent as s uc c es s in a

s p o rt l ike b as eb al l, s ho o t ing e f fec t ive ly o b vio us ly req u ires a lo t o f c o n f id enc e. As M il ls ap has p ro ven

o ver the las t th ree s eas o ns , c o n f id enc e c an f luc tuate b as ed o n where yo u are p lay ing.

Ve te ran f ree agen t Ro yal Ivey s ays that the re is s o meth ing b ene f ic ial ab o u t p lay ing away f ro m famil iar

s u rro und ings :

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Sc hayes : Why P res eas o n Trip s , N ear

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10/28/13 Road Court Advantage: The Curious Case of Paul Millsap's Perimeter Shooting

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“Yo u ge t s o us ed to p lay ing at ho me that i t b ec o mes yo ur c o mfo rt z o ne,” Ivey exp lained . “On the ro ad ,

there ’ s a d if fe ren t mental ap p ro ac h to the game. Yo u go t the c ro wd up agains t yo u in a d if fe ren t

enviro nment and yo u have to b e al l lo c ked in . P lay ing o n the ro ad req u ires a b it o f a h igher fo c us .”

So , go ing fo rward w ith the s eas o n, is i t p o s s ib le that we s ee M il ls ap p lay mo re at the s mall fo rward

p o s it io n o n the ro ad ?

C o ac h M ike B ud enho lz e r wo n ’ t d is c o un t anyth ing at th is p o in t :

“P au l’ s ve rs at i l i ty is o ne o f the main reas o ns we ’ re exc ited he ’ s a p art o f the p ro gram,” B ud enho lz e r

s aid . “I th ink h is ab i l i ty to guard th rees and fo urs is huge. In t ime, s t re tc h ing h im o u t as a th ree is

s o meth ing we may c o ns id er b u t , fo r righ t no w, we ’ re go ing to us e h im as a b ig. S t i l l , we want to b e

f lex ib le and o p en go ing fo rward .”

With the f ro n t l ine d ep th o n the H awks ’ ro s te r, i t may b e b ene f ic ial to exp eriment w ith l ineup s featu ring

M il ls ap and H o rfo rd and a th ird b ig man. A f te r al l , M il ls ap and H o rfo rd are far f ro m p ro to typ ic al b igs

and have p ro ven to b e e f fec t ive c o n trib u to rs away f ro m the rim.

D eM arre C arro l l, M il ls ap ’ s teammate fo r the p as t two s eas o ns in U tah and c urren t teammate in A t lan ta

th inks that i t ’ s fo o l is h to at tac h M il ls ap to a s p ec if ic p o s it io n :

“P au l’ s a guy yo u jus t have to le t go o u t the re and p lay. H e ’ s s uc h a hard wo rker and e f fec t ive p layer

that yo u c an ’ t real ly p u t a numb er o n h im.”

It ’ s un fair to p u t a p o s it io n o n M il ls ap , es p ec ial ly o n the ro ad . If he c o n t inues to evo lve h is o u ts id e

to uc h, M il ls ap w il l c reate o p p o rtun it ies to s p ac e the f lo o r fo r a d ive rs e o f fens ive at tac k in A t lan ta.

“I’ ve s p en t the p as t few years exp and ing my game and t ry ing to b ec o me mo re ve rs at i le ,” M il ls ap

c o nc lud ed . “C o ac h is go ing to as k me a lo t to s p ac e the f lo o r and to s ho o t a b it . H o p efu l ly I c an

d e l ive r.”

Jac o b Eis enb erg is a jun io r at Emo ry U n ive rs ity and wo rks as a c red en t ialed rep o rte r at A t lan ta H awks

games . C hec k o u t h is web s ite here and b e s u re to fo l lo w h im o n tw it te r @ eis enb erg43.

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Eve n in g N e ws : Te ams s c are d o f f b y me d ia

b l i t z Co l l in s wo u ld b rin g ; 7 6 e rs b ac kp e dal

o n N o e l c o mme n t s

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10/28/13 Road Court Advantage: The Curious Case of Paul Millsap's Perimeter Shooting

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D raf t ing a Fan tas y Team? We C an H e lp

Th i s i s a “ fa re we l l ” c o l u m n . M y two

s e as o n s a t S h e r i d an H o o p s h a ve b e e n a

lo t o f fu n , an d i t h a s a [ . . . ]

Fo l l o w o n Twi tte r

M arks : Ou t o f Ans wers , Ive rs o n F inal ly

H anging Them U p

P H ILAD ELP H IA —N e ws th a t A l l e n Ive rs o n

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o ffi c i a l l y h i s [ . . . ]

SH B lo g: G riz z l ies waive Fab M e lo ;

Od o m no t b e ing d rug tes ted ; 7 6ers

no t p aying Ro yc e Wh ite

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N BA D e p th Ch art 2 0 13 -2 0 14

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t h e y N e e d is a Te am

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10/28/13 Road Court Advantage: The Curious Case of Paul Millsap's Perimeter Shooting

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