Roadmapping an emerging industry with bibliometrics and

patent analysis: A case of OLED industry in China

Xin Li1, Yuan Zhou2, Lan Xue2, Lucheng Huang1

1School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China

2School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China

Abstract: In recent years, emerging technologies have been attracting increasing attention

worldwide, due to the emergence and development of these emerging technologies may have a

profound influence on the global industrial and economic structure. How to identify and grasp the

opportunity to develop emerging technologies is an important issue for companies and

governments, and how to strategize and plan the growth of the emerging technologies-based

industry is a strategic concern for all nations to develop their emerging industries, which will

ultimately contribute to their international competitiveness and sustainable development when

facing the wave of revolutionary industrial changes.

In response to these questions, therefore, this paper attempts to develop a framework for

identifying the opportunity to develop emerging technologies, and strategizing and planning the

future development of these emerging technologies-based industry in emerging countries like

China, based on an understanding of the existing science and technology trajectory and the

identification of the future macro-level trends in the policy, market, and industry dynamics. The

framework is conducted by integrating bibliometrics, patent analysis, and technology

roadmapping. In the framework, bibliometrics is applied to analyze the existing science research

position of the emerging technologies, patent analysis is used to analyze the technology

application position of the emerging technologies, and both of these two methods are applied to

identify the national competitive advantage in these science and technology domains. The

adoption of the bibliometric method and patent analysis, which use quantitative literature data and

patent data to visualize the science and technology status, can significantly reduce the bias due to

using experts’ opinions that are based on intuitive knowledge when planning and roadmapping the

future development of emerging technologies from science to market activities. Besides, the

leading experts who are identified by bibliometrics and patent analysis can be asked to participate

in the technology roadmapping workshops and ensuing roadmap development.

The Organic Light Emitting Diode (OLED) industry in China is selected as a case study. This

study will contribute to the roadmapping methodology, and will be of interest to OLED industry

researchers.

Keywords: Technology roadmapping; Bibliometrics; Patents analysis; Emerging technologies;

Organic Light Emitting Diode.

1. Introduction

In recent years, as science and technology continuously advance, emerging technologies are

blossoming. And emerging technologies have been attracting increasing attention worldwide, due

to the emergence and development of these emerging technologies may have a profound influence

on the global industrial and economic structure, leading to a new wave of industrial revolution [1].

In these circumstances, how to identify and grasp the opportunity to develop emerging

technologies is an important issue for companies and governments, and how to strategize and plan

the growth of the emerging technologies-based industry is a strategic concern for all nations to

develop their emerging industries, which will ultimately contribute to their international

competitiveness and sustainable development when facing the wave of revolutionary industrial

changes. And the new wave of industrial revolution brings an important “window of opportunity”

for emerging countries to catch up in the global innovation race [2].

Existing studies have explored various methodologies for mapping or forecasting the

trajectories of emerging technologies; however, few studies attempt to extend this study to an

industrial-level, which involves more complex macro-factors such as policy, market, industry

competitions and the dynamics in-between. Furthermore, there is limited research on emerging

industrial pathways that can bridge the unconnected front-end and back-end studies: analyzing the

past trajectories (front-end), and fore-sighting the future innovation pathways (back-end) – this

calls for a systematic approach that integrates these two components, which can reinforce each

other, for planning the development of new industries. Specifically, emerging countries have their

idiosyncrasies when strategizing the innovation pathways of emerging industries –rapid economic

growth and demand vs. vague global competitive position, limited innovation infrastructure,

low-cost alternative technologies – therefore the macro-level analysis is crucial to better plan the

future pathways.

In response to these questions and gaps, therefore, this paper attempts to develop a

framework for identifying the opportunity to develop emerging technologies, and strategizing and

planning the future development of these emerging technologies-based industry in emerging

countries like China, based on an understanding of the existing science and technology trajectory

and the identification of the future macro-level trends in the policy, market, and industry dynamics.

The framework is conducted by integrating bibliometrics, patent analysis, and technology

roadmapping (TRM). In the framework, bibliometrics is applied to analyze the existing science

research position of the emerging technologies, patent analysis is used to analyze the technology

application position of the emerging technologies, and both of these two methods are applied to

identify the leading experts, national competitive advantage in these science and technology

domains; technology roadmapping is utilized for strategizing and planning the future development

of the emerging technologies-based industry. The adoption of the bibliometric method and patent

analysis, which use quantitative literature data and patent data to visualize the science and

technology status, can significantly reduce the bias due to using experts’ opinions that are based

on intuitive knowledge when planning and roadmapping the future development of emerging

technologies from science to market activities. The leading experts who are identified by

bibliometrics and patent analysis can be asked to participate in the workshop and ensuing roadmap

development. This is of prime importance for constructing the roadmap of emerging

technologies-based industry. It takes the Organic Light Emitting Diode (OLED) industry in China

as a case study, against the background of the rapid development of China’s OLED industry.

The rest of this paper is organized as follows. Section 2 presents the literature review. Section

3 provides the methodology. Section 4 analyzes the case study. Finally, section 5 concludes and

discusses the paper.

2. Literature review

2.1 TRM for emerging industry

The emergence of emerging industries is an important phenomenon that remains relatively

neglected by researchers [3]. McGahan et al. pointed out that, in the study of industrial life cycle,

current studies on industrial evolution mostly focus on the later stage, fewer studies on the earlier

stage, namely, the emergence of the industry [4]. Forbes and Kirsch pointed out that there are two

reasons: one is that emerging industry is hard to identify in the beginning, only when it has

developed to a certain scale can catch the attention of researchers; the other is that for lack of

historical data, it is hard for scholars to study it [3]. Therefore, advancing the study of emerging

industries will require researchers to develop new methodologies and theories, to make more

extensive use of qualitative and historical data [3].

TRM is a flexible method to strategize and planning the future development trend of

emerging technologies, which has been widely used within enterprises, industries and nations to

support strategic and long-term planning [5-7]. It is also an effective tool for mapping the

emergence of emerging industries, for it provides a structural framework for exploring into the

evolution of complex systems, enabling the evolution history and future development to be

displayed in the roadmap [8]. Therefore, it can improve our understanding of emerging industries’

dynamics and characteristics, provide insightful guidance on strategic decision-making and

corporate practice. TRM has been applied to map the mergence of China’s solar cell industry [9],

China’s wind energy equipment manufacturing industry [10], and the U.S. automotive industry

[11].

Although TRM has been applied in many areas, it also suffers from several shortcomings,

including the fact that, during the implementation process, what kind of experts should be invited

to participate in TRM workshop, which technological solutions should be selected and the current

situation usually depends on experts’ intuitive knowledge [2]. We believe that some of these

shortcomings of TRM might be assuaged by the use of bibliometrics and patents analysis in the

TRM process.

2.2 Biblimetrics and patents analysis for emerging technologies

Bibliometrics is the measurement of literature data to explore, organize and analyze large

amounts of historical data in order to help researchers to identify the “hidden patterns” that may

assist their decision-making process [12]. It is an effective method to detect the taxonomic

structure of a research domain [13-14] and analyze emerging technologies. By use of life cycle

method, Martino [15] divided the stage of innovation into five stages, namely, basic research,

applied research, development, application and social impacts. And each stage can be analyzed by

the relevant literature data: the basic research stage can be measured by science citation index

papers, the applied research stage can be measured by engineering index papers, the development

stage can be measured by patents data, the application stage can be measured by newspaper

abstracts daily, and social impact stage can be measured by business and popular press data. Based

on Martino’s research, some scholars make use of bibliometric methods to analyze the technology

life cycle position and forecast emerging technologies [2, 12].

Patent information contains enormous and rich technical items, and it is a useful indication

for the technological development strategies or global strategies of individual enterprises in

response to intensifying competition [16]. Patent analysis is an objective method to identify the

trends of technological development by analyzing patent information [17]. And it has been widely

applied by enterprises or governments to avoid unnecessary investment and gain the seeds for

technological development [18]. Many patent analysis methods have been developed [19-24].

Patent analysis has also been applied to forecasting emerging technologies [12, 17, 18, 25]. Patent

map is the visualized expression of the patent analysis results to identify current status of patent

development and understand patent information easily and effectively [17]. And it is produced by

gathering, processing, and analyzing patent documents of a target technology domain. One of

patent maps is ThemeScape map which can be created by Thomson innovation [26]. This paper

will apply ThemeScape map to mapping the development of the emerging technologies.

Some scholars point out that bibliometrics and patents analysis can be a key component for

constructing a reliable roadmap [2], and the combination of roadmapping with bibliometrics has to

be addressed well in advance of the implementation of a roadmapping process [2, 27]. Robinson et

al. present a framework with bibliometric analysis and workshops to forecast innovation pathways

for new and emerging science and technologies [28]. Li et al. propose a framework by combining

bibliometrics with TRM workshops to predict the future development of emerging technologies or

strategize and plan the future development of new technology-based industries [2].

In this paper, bibliometrics is applied to analyze the existing science research position of the

emerging technologies, patent analysis is used to analyze the technology application position of

the emerging technologies, and both of these two methods are applied to identify the leading

experts, national competitive advantage in these science and technology domains. The adoption of

the bibliometric method and patent analysis, which use quantitative literature data and patents data

to visualize the science and technology status, can significantly reduce the bias due to using

experts’ opinions that are based on intuitive knowledge when constructing the roadmap of

emerging technologies-based industry. The leading experts who are identified by bibliometrics and

patent analysis can be asked to participate in the workshop and ensuing roadmap development.

This is also of prime importance for constructing the roadmap of emerging technologies-based

industry.

3. Methodology

The industrial landscape is becoming increasingly complex and dynamic, with innovative

technologies stimulating the emergence of new applications, business models and industries [8].

The emergence of emerging industry has four paths, namely, (1) the industrialization of emerging

technologies; (2) the differentiation of original industry; (3) the development of one relevant

industry leading to the emergence of another industry; (4) industry integration. Among them, the

emerging industry coming from the industrialization of emerging technologies is named as

emerging technologies-based industry, or science and technology-based industry. Phaal et al. [8]

studied more than 25 science and technology-based industries’ historical evolution and pointed out

that the emergence of science and technology-based industry has undergone four stages, which are

science dominated emergence, technology dominated emergence, application dominated

emergence and market dominated emergence respectively. These findings provide theoretical

guidelines for studying the growth of emerging technologies from science to application and the

market.

In order to cope with the complexity and dynamicity of the growth of emerging technologies,

strategic roadmapping frameworks have been widely applied to strategize and plan the emergence

and development of those emerging technologies-based industry – at least 1,500 public domain

roadmaps have been developed during the last 15 years [29]. There are there are three essential

questions in the strategic roadmapping [5, 30, 31]: (1) Where are we now? (2) Where do we want

to go? (3) How can we get there?. As for asking these three questions to construct strategic

roadmapping, many existing TRMs are mostly reliant on experts’ opinions that are based on

intuitive knowledge. And in the TRM process, what kinds of experts should be invited to

participate in the workshop and ensuing roadmap development is also one of puzzle problems for

TRM organizers, which is the key issue to improve the reliability and effectiveness of the TRM.

Bibliometric method and patent analysis, which use quantitative literature data and patents data,

can analyze the research hot points, technology frontiers, technology opportunities, technology

development trend, and leading technology experts in the science and technology fields. And they

also can visualize the national competitive advantage in the science and technology domains. So

the analysis results of bibliometric method and patent analysis can provide references for experts

to make decisions, when they construct strategic roadmapping. And the leading technology experts

who are identified by bibliometrics and patent analysis can be asked to participate in the TRM

workshops and ensuing roadmap development. Therefore, the introduction of the bibliometric

method and patent analysis into the application of TRM can significantly reduce the bias due to

using experts’ opinions that are based on intuitive knowledge when constructing TRM, which can

in turn improve the reliability and validity of the TRM.

In the approaches or processes are employed to construct strategic roadmaps, bibliometrics,

patent analysis and the “fast-start TRM workshop” [2, 31-32] are three recognized ones. This

paper will develop a framework based on the combination of these three methods to strategize and

plan the future development of emerging technologies-based industries, when attempting to fully

utilize their advantages and make this framework more valid and reliable. In the framework,

bibliometrics and patent analysis for analyzing the existing position of science and technology,

and TRM workshops for strategizing the future development path from technology to application

and the market involving various stakeholders, including technological experts, industrial experts,

policy makers, and business managers. This framework tends to better address the emergence of

technology, application, market, industrial settings, and the dynamical relationships between them.

The analysis methods used in this paper and the industrial emergence stages are shown in Fig. 1.

And the framework for analyzing the future development of emerging technology-based industry

based on bibliometrics, patent analysis and TRM workshops is shown in Fig. 2.

Bibliometrics Patents analysis TRM workshops

Science

dominated emergence

Technology

dominated emergence

Application

dominated emergence

Market

dominated emergence

Fig.1. Analysis methods and industrial emergence stages

In response to the three questions of strategic roadmapping, we design a 3-step process in the

framework that integrates bibliometrics, patent analysis and TRM workshops. For emerging

technologies-based industry that is in the embryonic and nurturing stage, the first question lays

greater emphasis on R&D aspects, so we can use the bibliometric method and patent analysis to

analyze the existing R&D situation. In addition, the latter two questions rely on our understanding

of complex market and industrial settings, as well as the dynamics for developing the emerging

technologies, which call for the brainstorming and consensus of industrial experts, policy makers

and academics. TRM workshops can provide a valid, reliable process for formulating effective

planning and strategizing. The process of the framework is depicted as follows (Fig.2).

Step 1: Analyze the existing R&D situation of the emerging technology

In this step, we search for specific keywords related to the emerging technology among the

academic papers and patents database. The bibliometric method and patent analysis are used to

analyze the publications related to the emerging technology. The analysis of the information of

these publications and the changes in the frequency of publications over time can increase our

understanding of the R&D activity. The research hot points, technology opportunities, and

technology development trend in the field of the emerging technology can be visualized. And the

leading experts in the field of the emerging technology can also be identified. These leading

experts can be asked to participate in the TRM workshops and ensuing roadmap development.

Therefore, the first step in our framework will help us to understand the past and existing

R&D situation of the emerging technology in a global sense, and to elucidate the national

competitive advantage of China – is China still lagging behind or is it already among the leaders?

The results of the bibliometric method and patent analysis can support the planning and decision

making of experts who participate in the TRM workshops. And therefore, the introduction of the

bibliometric method and patent analysis into the application of TRM can significantly reduce the

bias arising from using experts’ opinions which are based on intuitive knowledge.

Step 2: Identify the key external factors that may shape the growth of emerging

technologies-based industry

In order to strategize and planning the future development of the emerging

technologies-based industry, we may need to take into account the macro-level influential factors

such as market trends, government policies, industrial competition, etc [8]. The fast-start

workshop approach is used in this step. The industrial experts, policy makers, and business

managers are invited to participate in the TRM workshop. Based on industrial historical

documents and experts’ experience, the macro-level settings and possible future events (as

opportunities, enablers, or barriers from market, policy and industry dynamics) may shape the

growth of emerging technologies-based industry can be identified in this workshop.

Step 3: Roadmapping the future development of emerging technologies-based industry

In this step, we need to analyze what are the opportunities and resources that can help us to

overcome the barriers to get our TRM goals, and what are the threats and weaknesses that prevent

us from getting our TRM goals [2]. Therefore, some of leading experts who are identified by

bibliometric method and patent analysis, industrial experts, and business managers are invited to

participate in this workshop to analyze how can we get our TRM goals. Combining with the

results of step 2, the future development roadmap of the emerging technologies-based industry

from technology, production, industry dynamics, market and policy can be drawn in this step.

The Organic Light Emitting Diode (OLED) industry in China is taken as a case study to show

the implementation process of this framework. And the case study is discussed in the following

section.

系统

Academic

publications

Patents

Bibliometrics

Patents analysis

Step 2: Identify the key external factors that

may shape the growth of emerging

technologies-based industry

Industry

dynamics

Policy

Market

Historical

documents

+Experts’knowledge

Step 3: Roadmapping the future development

of emerging technologies-based industry

Experts’knowlege

Technology

Production

Market

Policy

5 year Time10 year

Industry

dynamics

15 year

R&D positions

Industrial factors

Production patterns

Market demands

Policy environment

Data Analysis Results TRM Questions

TRM workshop

TRM

workshop

Where are

we now?

Where do we

want to go?

How can we

get there?

Methods

3. The leading experts

in the technology

domains

Step 1: Analyze the existing R&D position

of the emerging technology

5. The future

development

roadmap of the

emerging

technologies-based

industry

4. The key events

in the macro-level

settings: market,

policy and

industry dynamics

2. The national

competitive

advantage in the

technology

domains

1. The technology hot

points and technology

trends in the technology

domains

Fig. 2. The framework for analyzing the future development of emerging technology-based

industry based on bibliometrics, patent analysis and TRM workshops

4. Case study

4.1 Background: The OLED industry in China

Organic Light-emitting Diodes (OLED) refers to the technology that

organic semiconductor materials emit light under the influence of electric field. OLED display has

more advantages than numerous other display technologies. The features of the OLED display are:

(1) self-illuminating; (2) low energy-consumption; (3) limitless viewing angle; (4) fast response;

(5) easy to use for a large area; (6) flexible; and (7) has a simple manufacturing process [33]. The

OLED display is considered might eventually replace liquid crystal displays (LCDs) in the future

and has the potential to become the next mainstream display technology [34].

China started to undertake the R&D of OLED materials, components and the mass

production process in 1990s. China’s research on OLED technology started from universities’

laboratories, mainly in Tsinghua University, Shanghai University, and other universities or

research institutions. Shanghai University embarked on research on OLED in 1990, and set up the

Shanghai Spaceflight SU OLED Technology Co., Ltd. in 2001 to be engaged in the pilot-scale

production of OLED. Tsinghua University set up the OLED project team in 1996 to embark on

research in this technology field.

Since 2001, some Chinese companies have ventured into developing OLED productions, and

the industrialization of OLED technology gradually taking shape. In 2001, Beijing Visionox

Technology Co., Ltd. was set up. It set up the first pilot line of OLED in Chinese Mainland, which

started with small-lot production of OLED [35]. With its products going into the field of

instrument and meter, the company became the first company of Chinese Mainland engaged in

production and marketing of its independently developed OLED productions. From 2005, China’s

OLED industry has been developing fast and a large number of companies kept going into the

industry, resulting in the rapid development of Active Matrix Organic Light-emitting Diodes

(AMOLED) technology in recent years. In 2010, the first AMOLED pilot line was completed and

put into production in Kunshan. Until now, China has formed a whole industrial chain of OLED

development and material production, and AMOLED industrial bases have been established in

Kunshan, Chengdu, Foshan, Xiamen and other cities. China already has a number of AMOLED

production lines, including the G5.5 line of BOE Technology Group CO LTD, G4.5 line of

Sichuan CCO Display Technology CO LTD, G4.5 line of Beijing Visionox Technology CO LTD,

etc [35]. Among them, the G5.5 line of BOE Technology Group CO LTD was put into production

in November 2013.

Although China has made rapid development in OLED industry in the past decade, it lags far

behind in many respects when compared with developed countries, especially in OLED equipment

manufacturing, core technology and some key raw materials.

OLED industry is a science and technology-based industry. OLED technology has become

one of the key high-tech fields that involve international competition. At present, some developed

countries have given full attention to the OLED industry, for instance, the government of Japan

and South Korea have given tremendous support to their domestic OLED industry. Global display

technology giants like Samsung SDI CO LTD, LG Display CO LTD and Sony CORP have

attached great importance to the OLED technology and its future applications and have invested a

huge of money in the R&D field of OLED, with hoping to uphold their leadership position in the

global OLED industry [35]. Faced with intensive global competition in the OLED industry, if

China’s OLED industry wishes to maintain its healthy, sustainable development, China needs to

master the core technology of the industry in the global innovation race.

Therefore, it is first necessary to analyze the R&D status and future development trends

related to global OLED technology and the R&D status of China in the OLED technology field in

order to provide a foundation for understanding the future development of China’s OLED

industry.

4.2 An analysis of OLED technology based on biblimetrics

This paper applies the bibliometric method to analyze global and China’s basic science

research status in the field of OLED technology. The number of papers, research organization

co-occurrence, research hot point and international cooperation analyses related to OLED

technology based on the bibliometric method will be discussed in the following section.

4.2.1 Data collection

This paper uses the term “(organic* light-emitting* diode*) or (organic*

electroluminescence* display*) or (organic* light-emitting* devices*) or oled or oleds or pleds or

pled or (organic* light* emitting* diode*) or (organic* light* emitting* devices*) or (organic*

light-emitting* display*) or (organic* light* emitting* display*)” as the query to search published

papers on the Web of Science (SCI-EXPANDED) database. The document types are article,

proceedings paper, letter and review respectively. The search was done on May 30th

, 2014. 18,666

published papers were retrieved from the database from 1980 to 2013. The annual number of SCI

papers related to OLED is shown in Fig.3.

Fig. 3. Annual number of SCI papers related to OLED

4.2.2 Data analysis

4.2.2.1 Paper number analysis

In order to analyze the 18,666 SCI papers related to OLED, we imported these papers data

into the Thomson Data Analyzer (TDA). After cleaning the imported papers data, the OLED

technology trend report was produced by the Thomson Data Analyzer automatically. The date of

the report creation is June 5th, 2014. The annual numbers of people active and technological terms

related to OLED are shown in Fig.4 and Fig.5 respectively, with the SCI paper numbers related to

OLED by country/region and year in Fig.6. The percentage of SCI paper numbers related to

OLED by country/region is shown in Fig.7.

As can be seen on Fig.4, since 2005, many new researchers have studied OLED. Likewise,

Fig.5 indicates that large numbers of new technology terms appeared after 2005. This shows that

the basic research field of OLED has been very active in the last ten years.

As can be seen from Fig.6, from 1999 to 2013, the number of China’s annual SCI papers on

OLED increased constantly and since 2005, has outstripped that of developed countries such as

the Japan, South Korea, and USA. Besides, from the SCI papers publication time, we can see that

China started to research OLED around 1995, later than the U.S. and Japan, but almost the same

time as other developed countries. The total number of China’s SCI papers had reached 4,295 by

the end of 2013, accounting for 23% of global numbers (Fig. 7).

Fig. 4. Annual number of people active related to OLED

Fig. 5. Annual number of technology terms related to OLED

Fig. 6. SCI paper numbers related to OLED by country/region and year

Fig. 7. The percent of SCI paper numbers related to OLED by country/region

4.2.2.2 Research organization co-occurrence analysis

In this paper, we use Ucinet software to analyze the global research organization

co-occurrence of OLED. The steps are as follows. Firstly, we imported the 18,666 published

papers into TDA software, and cleaned the data of the organizations which the authors belong to in

each paper. Due to there are a large number of organizations which study OLED, so we selected

top 100 organizations to ensure that co-occurrence network can be clearly shown. Then, an

organization co-occurrence matrix was constructed based on the top 100 organizations cleared

data. Then, it was imported into Ucinet software. Finally, the results are shown in Fig.8, and the

centrality degree of organization co-occurrence network of OLED.

Fig. 8. The organization co-occurrence network related to OLED

In Fig. 8, the nodes represent the research organizations with their names on the right, and the

size of the node represents the total cooperation frequency of the organization with the others. The

links between the different nodes represent the cooperation existing between the organizations,

and the thickness of the link represents the cooperation frequency between the two organizations.

As can be seen from Fig. 8, the larger-size nodes are: Chinese Acad Sci (Chinese Academy of

Sciences), Natl Taiwan Univ (National Taiwan University), Natl Tsing Hua Univ (National Tsing

Hua University) and Jilin Univ (Jilin University), which means that these four organizations have

cooperated with others more often than the rest research organizations, and they are leading

research organizations in the basic research field of OLED. The links from the node (Chinese

Acad Sci) to many different nodes show that the Chinese Academy of Sciences engages in

considerable cooperative researches with many other international research organizations.

As can be seen from Fig.8 and Table 1, besides the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the

Jilin University, there are many Chinese research organizations, such as City Univ Hong Kong

(City University of Hong Kong), S China Univ Technol (South China University of Technology),

Wuhan Univ (Wuhan University), Fudan Univ (Fudan University) and Tsinghua Univ (Tsinghua

University), indicating that these organizations have also engaged in the study of OLED

technology and have carried out much frequent international cooperation in the study of OLED

technology.

Table 1 The centrality degree of organization co-occurrence network with regard to OLED

No. Organization name Country/Region Normalized

centrality degree

1 Chinese Acad Sci China 4.033

2 Natl Taiwan Univ Taiwan 2.049

3 Natl Tsing Hua Univ Taiwan 1.96

4 Jilin Univ China 1.856

5 Acad Sinica Taiwan 1.792

6 Sungk yunkwan Univ South Korea 1.575

7 Hongik Univ South Korea 1.527

8 Natl Chiao Tung Univ Taiwan 1.478

9 City Univ Hong Kong China 1.269

10 Seoul Natl Univ South Korea 1.165

11 Hong Kong Baptist Univ China 1.028

12 Korea Adv Inst Sci & Technol South Korea 0.996

13 S China Univ Technol China 0.98

14 Korea Inst Sci & Technol South Korea 0.924

15 Hong Kong Univ Sci & Technol China 0.86

16 Ind Technol Res Inst Taiwan 0.844

17 Dan kook Univ South Korea 0.828

18 Princeton Univ USA 0.82

19 Wuhan Univ China 0.787

20 Fudan Univ China 0.779

The top ten research organizations related to OLED are shown in Table 2, which shows that

the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Jilin University have published the larger number of SCI

papers with regard to OLED, and that both of them started to research OLED in 1990s, almost as

early as the earliest organizations in the world. These show that China has a strong basic research

capability in the field of OLED technology.

As can be seen from Table 2, we can identify the leading research organizations and who are

the leading experts in the basic research field of OLED technology in the world. Such as, Ma,

Dongge engaged in the study of OLED technology at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, who have

published 170 SCI papers with regard to OLED. He was invited to participate in our workshop as

a technology expert.

Table 2 The top ten research organizations with regard to OLED

Number of Organization name Country Top People Year Range Percentage of

Records （Region） Records in Last 3 Years

973 Chinese Acad Sci China Ma, Dongge(170); 1996-2013 33% of 973

Wang, Lixiang(71)

603 Jilin Univ China Liu, S.Y.(92) 1996-2013 40% of 603

Ma, Yuguang(90)

391 Natl Taiwan Univ Taiwan Wong, KenTsung (54); 2000-2013 34% of 391

Wu, Chung-Chih(53)

361 Hongik Univ South Korea Kim, Y.K.(209); 1999-2013 35% of 361

Yoon, S.S.(121)

299 Natl Chiao Tung Univ Taiwan Chen, Chin Hsin(75); 1994-2013 21% of 299

Hsu, Chain Shu(21)

287 S China Univ Technol China Cao, Yong(179); 2001-2013 36% of 287

Peng, Junbiao(53)

283 Sungk yunk wan Univ South Korea Yoon, S.S.(128); 1999-2013 49% of 283

Lee, K.H.(124)

278 Dankook Univ South Korea Lee, J.Y.(201); 2000-2013 49% of 278

Yook, K.S.(89)

275 Seoul Natl Univ South Korea Kim, J.J.(76); 1997-2013 32% of 275

Lee, C.H.(36)

262 Natl Tsing Hua Univ Taiwan Chi, Yun(60); 1999-2013 39% of 262

Jou, Jwo-Huei(59)

4.2.2.3 Research hot point analysis

In general, the word with higher frequency indicates that this word attracts more attention.

And this word can be regarded as the research hot point in the field [36].

In order to find out the global research hot points of OLED, we selected 5,543 SCI papers

from the 18,666 SCI papers with the period 2011 to 2013. We imported the 5,543 SCI papers into

TDA software, and cleaned the data of the keywords which belong to in each paper. And the

global top ten frequency keywords with regard to OLED are shown in Fig. 9.

In order to find out the China’s research hot points of OLED, we selected 1,595 SCI papers

from the 4,295 SCI papers with the period 2011 to 2013. The same steps as for the global research

hot point were implemented. And the China’s top ten frequency keywords with regard to OLED

are shown in Fig. 10.

As can be seen from Figs. 9-10, China’s research hot points for OLED are almost coincide

with those of the global ones.

Fig. 9. The top ten frequency keywords related to global OLED from 2011 to 2013

Fig. 10. The top ten frequency keywords related to China’s OLED from 2011 to 2013

4.2.2.4 International cooperation analysis

International cooperation research is of great significance for improving the level of scientific

research and innovation capability. In order to analyze the status of China’s international

cooperation research in the field of OLED, We use Ucinet software to analyze the international

cooperation research network. The steps are as follows. Firstly, we imported the 18,666 published

papers into TDA, and cleaned the data of the country/region which the authors belong to in each

paper. The country/region cooperation matrix is constructed by using TDA. Then, the

country/region cooperation matrix was imported into Ucinet software. Finally, the The

international cooperation network related to OLED was drawn by the use of Ucinet software. The

results were shown in Fig.11.

Fig. 11. The international cooperation network related to OLED

In Fig. 11, the nodes represent countries/regions with their names on the right. The size of the

node represents the total number of countries that cooperate with it. The link between the different

nodes indicates the cooperation relations between the countries/regions, and the thickness of the

link represents the frequency of the cooperation between the two countries /regions.

As can be seen on Fig.11, the top five countries regarding cooperation frequency are USA

(1025), China (733), Germany (719), UK (563) and Japan (416) respectively. China has

cooperated with many countries to research on OLED, particularly USA, Japan, South Korea and

Germany. Besides, these four countries also have frequent cooperation with other

countries/regions. This shows that China has engaged in the highest level of international

cooperation with regard to research into OLED technology.

4.2.3 Overall result analysis

From the results of the annual paper number, people active and technological terms related to

OLED technology based on bibliometrics, it is clear that the research on this field has been very

active in recent years. Since 2005, China has produced more annual SCI papers than developed

countries such as the Japan, South Korea, and USA. The Chinese Academy of Sciences and

Jilin University have published the larger number of SCI papers, and both of them started to

research OLED almost as early as the earliest organizations in the world; the Chinese Academy of

Sciences has engaged in cooperative research with the highest number of international research

institutions. China’s research hot points for OLED are similar to the global ones; and China has

engaged in a higher level of international collaboration research in this field.

These results mean that China has a strong basic research capability in the field of OLED

technology and been at the international forefront with regard to research into OLED technology,

which has provided a solid base for it to develop its OLED technology-based PV industry in the

future.

4.3 An analysis of OLED technology based on patents data

In order to analyze the distribution and applicants of China’s patents related to OLED, this

paper applies the patent analysis method to analyze the patent data in the field of OLED

technology. The number of patents and patent map analyses related to OLED based on the patent

analysis method will be discussed in the following section.

4.3.1 Data collection

This paper uses the term “(organic* light-emitting* diode*) or (organic*

electroluminescence* display*) or (organic* light-emitting* devices*) or oled or oleds or pleds or

pled or (organic* light* emitting* diode*) or (organic* light* emitting* devices*) or (organic*

light-emitting* display*) or (organic* light* emitting* display*)” as the query to search applied

patents on the Derwent Innovations Index database. 21,619 applied patents were retrieved from

the database from 1984 to 2013.

4.3.2 Data analysis

4.3.2.1 Patent number analysis

In order to understand the development trend of OLED technology patents and the major

patent applicants, we made the statistics of the 21,619 patents. We especially analyzed the patents

of USA, Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan. And the annual applied patents number of USA,

Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan is shown in Fig.12. The percent of applied patents numbers

related to OLED by country/region in the world is shown in Fig.13.

Fig. 12. Annual applied patents number of USA, Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan

As can be seen from Fig. 12, Japan and USA have applied for OLED patents since 1980s,

while South Korea and China since 2000. Since 2006, South Korea has produced more annual

OLED patents than other countries such as the Japan, China and USA. Although the applied

patents number slightly decreased in 2007 and 2008, South Korea still have the most applied

patents number until 2013. From 1999 to 2013, the number of China’s applied patents on OLED

increased constantly and since 2012, has outstripped that of developed countries such as the Japan

and USA.

Fig. 13. The percent of applied patents numbers related to OLED by country/region

As can be seen from Fig. 13, the applied patents on OLED in the world are mainly distributed

in South Korea, USA, Japan and China. South Korea has the most applied patents on OLED,

accounting for the world’s 37.78%, USA, Japan and China accounting for 19.85%, 16.71% and

8.19% respectively.

4.3.2.2 Patent map analysis

In order to understand the layout of the global OLED technology research and development,

we produced a patent map for the global OLED technology based on the 21,619 patents data with

the help of Thomson Innovation. The results are shown in Fig. 14.

As can be seen on Fig.14, the R&D hotspots of global OLED technology lie in the solid-state

devices and related processing techniques, electroluminescent light source, luminescent materials

and control circuit of display devices.

Fig. 14. Patent map for the global OLED technology

In order to understand China’s R&D hotspots in the field of OLED technology, we conducted

a secondary retrieval in the global OLED patent map with the use of “CN” in the priority

“country/region” word. And the result is shown in Fig.14. As can be seen on Fig.14, the R&D

hotspots of China’s OLED technology focus on organic luminescent materials, electroluminescent

light source and control circuit of solid-state devices.

Fig. 15. Patent Map for the global OLED technology and China’s focus (Red color showing

China’s patents)

In order to know who mainly applied for the OLED technology patents in China, which may

can better serve the TRM workshop, we use TDA to analyze patent assignees of the OLED

technology. The steps are as follows. Firstly, we carried out a secondary retrieval among the

21,619 patents on OLED, and the 1,786 China’s applied patents are searched. Then, we imported

the 1,786 China’s applied patents into TDA software, and cleaned the data of the patent assignees.

Finally, some of the results are shown in Table 3.

As can be seen from Table 3, we can find that BOE TECHNOLOGY GROUP CO LTD,

SICHUAN CCO DISPLAY TECHNOLOGY CO LTD, TSINGHUA UNIV, KUNSHAN INST

TECHNOLOGY NEW PANEL DISPLA and BEIJING VISIONOX TECHNOLOGY CO LTD

have applied larger number of patents with regard to OLED in China. And we can identify who

are the leading experts in the application field of OLED technology in these top five organizations.

Such as, QI, Xiao-jing engaged in the study of OLED technology at BOE TECHNOLOGY

GROUP CO LTD, who have applied 35 patents with regard to OLED. QIU, Yong is the major

patent applicant in TSINGHUA UNIV、KUNSHAN INST TECHNOLOGY NEW PANEL

DISPLA、BEIJING VISIONOX TECHNOLOGY CO LTD, who have applied more than 48

patents with regard to OLED. This is of prime importance information for us to construct TRM

workshops. Therefore, LI, Fengming who is one key technology experts of QI, Xiao-jing research

team was invited to participate in our workshop as a technology expert. LI, Yan and LIU, Song

who are key technology experts of QIU, Yong research team were also invited to participate in our

workshop as technology experts. And YANG, Shujuan who is the business manager in BEIJING

VISIONOX TECHNOLOGY CO LTD was invited to participate in our workshop as a business

expert.

Table 3 The top five patent assignees with regard to OLED in China

Number of Organization name Top People Year Range Percentage of

Records Records in Last 3 Years

251 BOE TECHNOLOGY GROUP CO LTD QI, Xiao-jing(35) 2008-2013 97% of 251

JIN, Xi-zhe(23)

119 SICHUAN CCO DISPLAY GAO, Xin-wei(28) 2009-2013 81% of 119

TECHNOLOGY CO LTD XIANG, Xin(17)

52 TSINGHUA UNIV QIU, Yong (47) 2004-2013 42% of 52

WU, Kong-wu(11)

48 KUNSHAN INST TECHNOLOGY QIU, Yong (48) 2007-2013 69% of 48

NEW PANEL DISPLA HUANG, Xiu-qi(33)

47 BEIJING VISIONOX TECHNOLOGY QIU, Yong (41) 2004-2013 62% of 47

CO LTD DUAN, Lian(12)

4.3.3 Overall result analysis

From the results of the patent data analysis, applied patents related on OLED in the world are

mainly distributed in South Korea, USA, Japan, China, Taiwan and Germany. It indicates that

these countries/regions have relatively strong R&D capability in the field of OLED. The number

of China’s applied patents on OLED increased constantly in recent years, and since 2012, has

outstripped that of developed countries such as the Japan and USA. It shows that China in the

research on this field has been very active in recent years, and the R&D hotspots of China’s OLED

technology focus on organic luminescent materials, electroluminescent light source and control

circuit of solid-state devices. The prime importance information for us to construct TRM

workshops is that we can identify who are the leading experts in the field of OLED technology in

China.

4.4 Macro-environment analysis of future development of OLED industry

According to the results of bibliometrics and patent analysis in the section 4.2 and 4.3, China

have relatively strong R&D capability in the field of OLED, and China’s basic research has been

at the international forefront in the research field of OLED, which have provided a solid base for it

to develop its OLED industry in the future. Therefore, based on these results, we will apply TRM

workshops to strategize and plan the future development of the OLED industry in China.

In order to identify the key external factors that may shape the future development of OLED

industry in China, the fast-start strategic roadmapping method was applied, and TRM workshop I

was designed (Table 4). The process of the TRM workshop is depicted as follows:

(1) Design: determine the dimensions and procedure of this TRM workshop. In this step, the

experts from Ministry of Science and Technology who are familiar with TRM methods and the

development history and status quo of OLED industry in China was invited to participate in our

workshop, and joint us to design the TRM workshop. According to experts’ opinions and our

practical experience, we finally decided to roadmapping the future development of OLED industry

in China from policy, market, industry dynamics, product and technology perspectives with the

timeframe from 2013 to 2030, and analyze key events and influence factors may shape the future

development of OLED industry from policy, market and industry dynamics perspectives.

(2) Discussion: analyze and discuss the opportunities and challenges for the future

development of OLED industry from policy, market and industry dynamics. In this part of the

workshop, we encouraged the experts to brainstorm and elicit possible future events from policy,

market and industry dynamics perspectives. Firstly, the experts discussed about the future market

demands and possible application areas of OLED technology. Then, the opportunities and

challenges of the future development of OLED industry from industry dynamics perspective were

discussed. Finally, policies and regulations which might be formulated by Chinese government to

promote or influence the future development of OLED industry were discussed. We wrote down

any major events and factors which may affect the future development of OLED industry in

China.

(3) Review: identify the key external factors that may shape the future development of

OLED industry in China from policy, market and industry dynamics. In this step, we compiled the

insights that had been produced and validated by the experts’ discussion. We counted those key

events (or factors) that are highly likely to occur. Highly uncertain events were excluded, although

these may cause disruptions that alter the path of the OLED industry. We summarized the output

of this workshop in Table 5. As mentioned above, only the key events (as opportunities or

challenges) remain on the list. Based on this, the authors further explored and planned the future

development of the OLED industry in China through a second workshop.

In Table 5, about the market dimension, most experts agreed that OLED technology has been

extensively applied to smart phones, smart watches, tablet PCs, instruments, vehicle-mounted

displays, etc., which is also the main application market for OLED technology in the future; In the

area of TV, especially the large-sized TV, it will be one of main market for OLED technology in

the future; In terms of the smart portable devices (such as portable TV or laptops which can be put

into the pockets), it will be the most attractive market for OLED technology. As for industrial

competition pressure, OLED display industry is mainly stressed from TFT-LCD industry and the

breakthroughs of emerging LED technologies for now and a long time in the future. From the

policy perspective, the R&D policy, demand side policy and energy conservation policies will

stimulate the future development of OLED industry in China. Especially, the R&D policy is

important for future development of Chinese OLED industry, such as increasing R&D capital of

OLED technology, and establishing OLED industrial fund to encouraging the R&D cooperation

among universities, research institutions and enterprises. Additionally, industrial laws, regulations

and criteria will facilitate the healthy development of Chinese OLED industry.

Table 4 The design of TRM workshop I

Stages Objectives and analysis Workshop experts

1 To determine the dimensions and

procedure of the TRM workshop

Experts from Ministry of Science and

Technology

2 To analyze and discuss the opportunities

and challenges for the future

development of OLED industry from

policy, market and industry dynamics

Experts from BEIJING VISIONOX

TECHNOLOGY CO LTD, BOE

TECHNOLOGY GROUP CO LTD,

Ministry of Science and Technology,

and Tsinghua University

3 To identify the key external factors that

may shape the future development of

OLED industry in China from policy,

market and industry dynamics

Experts from BEIJING VISIONOX

TECHNOLOGY CO LTD, BOE

TECHNOLOGY GROUP CO LTD,

Ministry of Science and Technology,

and Tsinghua University

Table 5 Dimensions and key events of macro-level settings

Dimensions Key events Time

Policy Supportive policies of energy conservation 2020~2030

Policy R&D policies, such as increasing R&D capital of OLED technology,

establishing OLED industrial fund

2014~2025

Policy Formulation of OLED industrial laws, regulations, and industrial

criteria

2015~2030

Policy Demand side policies, such as government procurement,

demonstration projects

2014~2025

Market Tablet PCs, TV 2014~2030

Market Smart phones, smart watches, tablet PCs, instruments,

vehicle-mounted displays

2014~2030

Market Smart portable devices (such as portable TV or laptops which can be

put into the pockets)

2020~2030

Market Military and aerospace display areas 2015~2030

Industry

dynamics

Competitive pressure from TFT-LCD industry 2014~2025

Industry

dynamics

Limitations of current LCD technology and breakthroughs of

emerging LED technology

2015~2030

Industry

dynamics

Development and configuration of smart display devices 2020~2030

Industry

dynamics

Application and development of emerging display technologies 2020~2030

4.5 TRM for the future development of OLED industry in China

Based on the key external factors that may shape the future development of OLED industry

in China were identified from the last workshop, this workshop mainly determines the future

development paths of OLED technology, and finally roadmapping the future development of

OLED industry in China. So in this step, we also used the fast-start strategic roadmapping method,

and designed the TRM workshop II (Table 6). The process of this TRM workshop is depicted as

follows:

(1) Design: determine the tasks and process of this TRM workshop. In this step, YANG,

Shujuan who is the business manager in BEIJING VISIONOX TECHNOLOGY CO LTD was

invited to participate in this workshop, and joint us to design this TRM workshop. And for this

workshop, the leading experts in China who identified by bibliometrics and patent analysis were

invited to participate in this workshop, including Ma, Dongge from Chinese Academy of Sciences,

LI, Yan and LIU, Song who are key technology experts of QIU, Yong research team from

BEIJING VISIONOX TECHNOLOGY CO LTD, and LI, fengming from BOE TECHNOLOGY

GROUP CO LTD.

(2) Discussion: analyze and determine the future development paths of OLED technology. In

this step, firstly, we prepared the results of bibliometrics and patent analysis, and the output of last

workshop for the experts, in order to provide them with a solid basis for in-depth discussion. Then,

we encouraged the experts to brainstorm and to focus on the production and technology

perspective to define the future development paths when considering the impact factors and

dynamics. We summarized the experts’ consensus judgments in Table 7.

(3) Review: Roadmapping the future development of future development of OLED industry

in China from policy, market, industry dynamics, production, and technology. Combining with the

results of last workshop, the future development roadmap of the OLED industry in China from

policy, market, Industry dynamics, production and technology perspectives is shown in Fig.16.

In Fig.16, for the technology dimension, experts considered that the research and develop of

China’s OLED technology will focus on OLED backboard technology, OLED display pixel

technology and OLED film forming technology, while prepare for flexible OLED display

technology as well as the development and application of new OLED materials in particular. In

terms of production dimension, we will still need to focus on middle and small size OLED

displays with improving the performance and efficiency of the OLED production; and we need to

prepare for the flexible wearable OLED production which will be a very attractive production in

the future. Additionally, the large-scale commercialized application of big-sized OLED displays

will promote the development of OLED display industry.

As mentioned earlier, Fig. 16 briefly roadmap the future development of OLED industry in

China. On this roadmap, the impacts of events with high uncertainty are not depicted. During the

process of TRM workshops, it is experts’ consensus that: (1) The large-scale application of

big-sized OLED displays and R&D policies will promote the development of OLED display

industry in China, and with the rapid development of OLED technology, the large-scale

commercialized production will be probably realized around 2020. (2) The large-scale

commercialized application of flexible wearable OLED production will be probably realized

around 2025. Such information may provide a useful reference for government’s OLED policies

and enterprises’ investment strategies.

Table 6 The design of TRM workshop II

Stages Objectives and analysis Workshop experts

1 To determine the tasks and process of this

TRM workshop

Experts from BEIJING VISIONOX

TECHNOLOGY CO LTD

2 To determine future development paths of

OLED from technology and production

Experts from BEIJING VISIONOX

TECHNOLOGY CO LTD, BOE

TECHNOLOGY GROUP CO LTD,

Chinese Academy of Sciences and

Tsinghua University

3 Roadmapping the future development of

future development of OLED industry in

China from policy, market, industry

dynamics, production, and technology

Experts from BEIJING VISIONOX

TECHNOLOGY CO LTD, BOE

TECHNOLOGY GROUP CO LTD,

Chinese Academy of Sciences and

Tsinghua University

Table 7 Dimensions and development paths of OLED technology

Dimensions Development paths Time

Production The commercialized application of large-sized OLED displays 2015~2025

Production The large-scale commercialized application of large-sized OLED 2020~2030

displays

Production Middle and small size OLED displays 2014~2030

Production Flexible wearable OLED devices 2017~2030

Technology OLED backboard technology 2014~2030

Technology OLED display pixel technology 2014~2030

Technology OLED film forming technology 2014~2030

Technology Flexible OLED display technology 2015~2030

Technology Development and application of new OLED materials 2020~2030

Technology

Production

Market

OLED film forming technology

Flexible OLED display technology

Development and application of new OLED materials

Flexible wearable OLED devices

OLED backboard technology

Policy

Industry

dynamics

Competitive pressure from TFT-LCD industry

Application and development of emerging technologies

Development and configuration of smart display devices

Limitations of current LCD technology and breakthroughs of emerging LED technology

Smart phones, smart watches, tablet PCs, instruments, vehicle-mounted displays

Tablet PCs, TV

Formulation of OLED industrial laws, regulations, and

industrial criteria

Demand side policies, such as government procurement, demonstration projects

R&D policies, such as increasing R&D capital, establishing OLED industrial fund

Supportive policies of energy conservation

2014-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030

OLED display pixel technology

Middle and small size OLED displays

The large-scale commercialized application of large-sized

OLED displays

The commercialized application of large-sized OLED displays

Military and aerospace display areas

Smart portable devices

Fig.16. The future development roadmap of the OLED industry in China

5. Discussion and Conclusions

This paper attempts to present a framework that combining bibliometrics, patent analysis and

TRM workshops method, in order to strategize and plan the future development of emerging

technologies-based industries. In the framework, bibliometrics and patent analysis for analyzing

the existing position of science and technology, and TRM workshops for strategizing the future

development path from technology to application and the market involving various stakeholders,

including technological experts, industrial experts, policy makers, and business managers. Besides,

the leading experts who are identified by bibliometrics and patent analysis are asked to participate

in the TRM workshops and ensuing roadmap development. The OLED industry in China was

employed as a case study, through which the proposed framework has been proven to be valid and

flexible. This paper will contribute to the roadmapping methodology, and will be of interest to

OLED industry researchers.

Some key findings and contributions are listed as follows:

(1) The framework provides a tool for roadmapping and planning the future development of

emerging technology-based industry, with understanding of the existing science and technology

trajectory and the identification of the future macro-level trends in the policy, market, and industry

dynamics.

(2) According to the findings of bibliometrics and patent analysis, China have relatively

strong R&D capability in the field of OLED, and China’s basic research has been at the

international forefront in the research field of OLED, which have provided a solid base for it to

develop its OLED industry in the future.

(3) A roadmap for the future development of the OLED industry in China was developed in

this paper, which may provide a useful reference for government’s OLED policies and enterprises’

investment strategies.

The limitations of this paper are as follows: (1) The framework presented in this paper is

applied to explore a future-oriented analysis supported by bibliometrics and patent analysis, rather

than to forecast the specific development trend of emerging technologies-based industry. We

didn’t take highly uncertainty events which may alter the development path of emerging

technologies-based industry into consideration. It is an interesting research direction that

combining scenario analysis, business data analysis, bibliometrics, patent analysis, and TRM to

analyze future development trend of emerging technologies-based industry. This is also a potential

direction for future-oriented analysis. (2) As for the roadmap, due to the finiteness of experts and

availability of data resource, in-depth enterprises’ interviews and business data analysis remain to

be done to improve the reliability and validity of it.

Acknowledgements

This paper is supported by the National Social Science Foundation of China (Grant 11&ZD140),

National Science Foundation of China (Grant 71203117), and Ministry of Education Social

Science Youth Foundation of China (14YJC630071).

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