rob byrne: energy transitions in low-income countries: learning to articulate solar home system...

Sussex Energy GroupSPRU - Science and Technology Policy Research

Energy transitions in low-income countries

Learning to articulate solar home system niches in Kenya and Tanzania

STEPS Symposium 2010Pathways to Sustainability: Agendas for a New Politics of Environment, Development and Social Justice

Institute of Development StudiesSeptember 24th 2010

Rob ByrneResearch Fellow

[email protected]


Background, purpose and argument of the presentation

• Based on DPhil, field research conducted July 2007 to July 2008

Not an assessment of PV as a solution to rural electrical service provision

Explanation of the different evolutions of the PV markets in Kenya and Tanzania

• This presentation focuses on only some of the activities in the evolution of the

Tanzanian photovoltaic (PV) market

• I will attempt to describe and analyse the development and growth of the PV niche,

from early donor-funded interventions based on experience in Kenya

• I argue that the model transferred from Kenya did not understand the Tanzanian

setting, which helps to explain its ‘failure’

• Subsequent learning in Tanzania resulted in greater articulation of the niche –

descriptively and connectively – and this helps to explain the recent ‘success’


Some general background

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1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$) GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2000 international $)

Source: World Bank African Development Indicators (2009)

• Some PV activity in Tanzania up to early 1990sA few PV suppliers in Dar es Salaam (e.g. BP)Some market for telecoms systems, railways, vaccine refrigerationVery few Solar Home Systems (SHSs) (perhaps a few hundred)


Strategic Niche Management – some definitions

Following Berkhout (2006), and Eames et al. (2006):

• Expectation: a socio-technical ‘target’ towards which actors can align themselves

and their activities

• Vision: specifies the means to achieve the socio-technical target or expectation

• First order learning: “how to improve the design, which features of the design are

acceptable for users, and about ways of creating a set of policy incentives which

accommodate adoption” (Hoogma et al. 2002:28).

• Second order learning: results from the testing of fundamental assumptions about

technology and context

• Networks of actors: broad networks considered important

• Institutions: the sociological understanding (norms, practices, policies, etc.)


Expectations, visions, and first and second order learning

Expectation 1

Expectation 2

Second-order learning

First-order learning

First-order learning

‘Starting’ point


Kenyan SHS market origins

• Karamugi Harambee School installation (1984)

Harold Burris and Mark Hankins (ex-Peace Corps in Kenya) did the installation

Headmaster and teachers wanted systems for their homes

• Burris marketed SHSs to HHs (wealthy ‘middle class’) around Mt. Kenya

• Hankins looked to training technicians and writing about SHSs in Kenya

• Hankins and Burris got USAID funding for PV projects in three schools (1985/86)

Installation and training, each dayo Practical work installing systems; classroom-based sessions on theory

Many of the electricians became sales technicians for Burris

Nairobi PV suppliers employed some and later ‘poached’ others

• After a regional workshop in Nairobi in 1992, Hankins (now as EAA) began a project

with Oswald Kasaizi (KARADEA, north west Tanzanian NGO)

This became the KARADEA Solar Training Facility (KSTF)


Transferring the model to Tanzania

• KSTF was Sida-funded (1993)

PV technician training courses (CSC and others funded) – installations and classroom

theory

About 200 technicians trained over ten-year period (East Africa)

KSTF tried to develop a market in Kagera region – no substantial success

• EAA implemented other community centre and PV training projects, e.g.

Government district officers awareness workshop (1996)

Simanjiro Animal Health Learning Centre (1996)

Wasso Hospital (1997)


Transferring the model to Tanzania

• Similar outcomes

Group of technicians with basic PV installation skills

Raised awareness of PV for rural electrification

Little or no market stimulation; technicians returned home buto No resourceso No PV supplierso No clear market demand

• But EAA was becoming established as a prominent PV actor in East Africa


TaTEDO’s PV activities

• TaTEDO (Tanzania Traditional Energy Development and Environment

Organisation) had a PV system installed by Burris (around 1996/7)

• PV project funded in late 1990s

PV Training courses in three regions (Hankins model), focussed on partner CBOs

First was in Dar es Salaam in May 2000, with stakeholder workshopo Tanzania Solar Energy Association (TASEA) created

Other courses recruited participants to TASEA

No market or project activity following courses, except among those already active in PV

Later courses focussed more on private sector actors (dealers and employees) and

business training, and PV for commercial activities

Helped to get training courses officially recognised (VETA)

• Worked with KSTF, TASEA, Burris, Umeme Jua (more below), and others

• TaTEDO becoming established PV actor in Tanzania


Free Energy Europe in Tanzania

• Karlijn Arkesteijn, an intern at TaTEDO during 2000, did market research for Free

Energy Europe (FEE)

European PV module manufacturer already selling in Kenya

Interested to sell in Tanzania

• Arkesteijn mapped the PV actors in three regions

Interactions with each other

Sought their views on how the market could be developed

• The research informed a proposal to the Dutch government to help fund a joint

venture in Tanzania (DGIS contributed about EUR 600,000)

Aligned FEE’s objective to sell in Tanzania with Dutch government objective to promote

sustainable energy services in developing countries

Umeme Jua created (2001) – FEE, TaTEDO and independent consultant


Umeme Jua’s market development activities

• Market studies using ‘EAA’ methodology

• Identified ‘entrepreneurial’ retail based dealers in urban centres of ‘promising’ regions

(where customers may have enough income)

• Built a network of dealers and associated technicians

Trained dealers in selling PV; and technicians local to the dealerso Initial training based on Hankins model (through TASEA, TaTEDO)o Later adapted to dealers’ and technicians’ needs (short, frequent, in-situ)

• Guaranteed supplies and offered terms depending on numbers sold

• Demonstrated PV systems in public places (e.g. markets), advertised on radio (local

stations found to be better than national)

• Referred interest to local dealers and technicians

• Experimented (unsuccessfully) with micro-finance

• Hire purchase very successful (Tunakopesha, later a competitor)


Donor-funded PV projects in Tanzania: instruments of energy policy

• UNDP-GEF project in Mwanza region (2004)

Initial design adjusted following consultation with TaTEDO, UJ and others

Strong similarity to UJ approach but with explicit policy lobbyingo Private sector capacity buildingo Raising awarenesso Enhancing affordabilityo Replication

• Sida-MEM project in three regions: Tanga, Morogoro and Iringa (2005)

Initial design adjusted following consultations (UNDP-GEF, UJ, etc.)

Strong similarity to UJ approach but, like UNDP-GEF, including a policy dimensiono Business development serviceso Networking support (TASEA)o Raising awarenesso Replication to other regions


Market outcomes and niche status

• Gradually (over 2 to 3 years), “the numbers began to get interesting” (van der

Vleuten 2008, former manager of FEE)

• In 2007, an estimated 285 kWp of modules were sold (could be anything from 5000

to 15,000 systems) – a 57% increase from the previous year

• Price per watt-peak fell from USD 12.07 (2006) to USD 9.85 (2007)

• In 2008, the PV market was estimated to be worth USD 2 million

Sida-MEM project estimated it to be higher (more than USD 2.8 million)

• Umeme Jua turned over USD 1 million in 2007-2008

• Highly interconnected niche (particularly through TASEA)

• Wide range of actors involved

• Growing links to other niches and regimes


Summary analysis

• Dominant overall expectation shifted subtly

From rural electrification using PV systems (development and business opportunities)

To PV market (development co-benefits)

• Adjusted main direction of learning

Instead of learning how to bring PV electrical services to the poor

It became how to maximise sales of PV modules

• Achieved by articulating the PV niche (descriptively and connectively)

Demonstrating PV to users, understanding user preferences, business practice and needs

Building broad networks of actors including connections to actors ‘outside’ the niche

• Articulating the niche helped to lower risks and the flow of information

• Rural electrification expectation persists – micro-finance experiments, etc.


Conclusions

• Huge effort to develop the market for PV in Tanzania

Not a simple story of private sector led development

Public sector funds helped to lower some of the riskso Facilitated experimentation and learning to develop business modelso Private sector replicated

The poor have not benefited directly, although effort continues

• PV is expensive but electrical services are in high demand

• What does this imply for other energy service technologies?

For example, is it realistic to expect that clean cooking technologies can be

diffused through private markets when direct burning of biomass is cheap and

simple?

rob byrne: energy transitions in low-income countries: learning to articulate solar home system...

Education

dar es salaam

free energy

initial design

pv niche

pv suppliers

uj approach

strong similarity

technical