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Powering sustainable growth GFSI Geneva, June 06, 2014 RobecoSAM Smart Energy Dr. Thiemo Lang | Senior Portfolio Manager

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Page 1: RobecoSAM Smart Energyvoxia.ch/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/GFSI2014_Pr... · Renewable Energies 61 15% 1.22 • Upstream equipment suppliers • Clean utilities: wind, solar, geothermal,

Powering sustainable growth GFSI Geneva, June 06, 2014

RobecoSAM Smart Energy

Dr. Thiemo Lang | Senior Portfolio Manager

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Investment Case: More Energy, less CO2

Security & Reliability

Climate Change

Scarcity of Fossil Fuels

RobecoSAM Smart Energy invests in the changes of energy supply and demand

World Energy Consumption (quadrillion Btu) Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011

World energy consumption growing 50% by 2035

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Global trend: power generation

The electricity generation sector is one of the most emission intensive, and the share of clean energy sources in the generation mix is poised to increase

Share of wind & solar power in the global

electricity mix Sources: IEA –World Energy Outlook 2011; RobecoSAM estimates

• Costs for solar and wind technologies have decreased significantly in recent years, providing a new driver for growth

• Security of supply concerns push states to consider non import dependent energy sources

• Regulations providing support

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RobecoSAM Smart Energy

Smart energy: technology, multi

applications, system integration

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Investment universe

5

ClusterEligible no.

of Stocks

% of

Marketcap in

STR Universe

Beta vs.

MSCI World

(STR)

Investment Areas

Natural Gas 42 31% 0.98• Engineering, procurement & construction

• Exploration & production

• Gas utilities

Renewable

Energies61 15% 1.22

• Upstream equipment suppliers

• Clean utilities: wind, solar, geothermal, hydro

Distributed

Energy Systems37 16% 0.96

• Electrical Infrastructure (operators, suppliers,

smart grid)

• Energy storage

Energy

Efficiency98 38% 1.05

• Buildings: facility management (LEDs), insulation

• Industrial processes: automation, electric motors

• Natural gas & electric vehicles, public transport

• Power management

Total 238 100% 1.04

Ex-ante Beta; Barra Aegis Global Equity model (31.12.2013)

Definition of the RobecoSAM Strategic Theme Reference (STR): market cap-adjusted reflection of the universe

• Comparison Jan 2013: Nat. Gas 70, Ren. Energies 76, Distr. Energy Syst. 42, Energy Efficiency 71

• No more utilities with residual coal exposure. Natural Gas E&P sector: more “pure play characteristics”.

• New subsectors: Natural Gas: EPC; Energy Efficiency: Semiconductor Power Management

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Solar power: diversification of demand and shift away from Europe

6

Annual solar PV installations 2011 – 2015E (in GW) Source: RobecoSAM Research and industry sources

Diversification of demand and shift from Europe

• The increased geographic diversification reduces the risk of boom and bust cycles and should lead to more stable and less cyclical growth of the sector going forward.

• Lower installed system cost have lead to increasing portions of regions reaching grid parity (self sustained markets).

• A key requirement for FIT-independent demand will be lower-cost storage solutions and more capital at a lower cost – for example via MLPs, REITs, and solar ABS, as well as third party financing models such as solar leasing (already gaining traction in the US).

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Lithium-Ion batteries: the Tesla Factor

• The planned Tesla Gigafactory ($5bn investments) alone would double the current worldwide Li-ion battery production!

• When will other car manufacturers follow?

• Investments over the whole value chain look promising (materials, other cell producers, …)

Lithium-ion battery market (GWh) Source: IIT Takeshita

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LED lighting: strong expansion over the next decade

LED lighting: lighting market penetration and estimated market size Source: RobecoSAM Research, industry sources, McKinsey 2012 report

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2011 2016 2020

LED lighting (in EUR Bln)

Non-LED lighting (in EUR Bln)

LED penetration

Strong growth over the next decade

• Energy efficiency: Lighting consumes c. 20% of electricity globally.

• Cost savings: replacing inefficient incandescent bulbs with LED lighting reduces electricity use by up

to 90%

• The sector of LED lighting to show growth rates in excess of 30% p.a. over the next 3-4 years.

• The LED lighting penetration is expected to exceed 40% over the next 5 years and 70% over the

next 10 years

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9

LED lighting: business case street lights

City Street Lighting

• Up to 40% of a city’s energy bill goes into street lighting. Costly to manage, often faulty.

• LED lamps: cut of energy and operations costs by 50%+.

LED Smart Street Lights

• Networked LEDs: remote management (no photocells necessary), faster outage response, reducing

packback period.

• Ability to dim street lights, controlling runtime (additional 10-20% energy savings).

• Dynamic lighting: smart traffic management systems, presence detection…

Example: LED replacement

50K Lights, energy costs

$0.07/kWh, life span 20

years, $400/LED fixtures

-> Reduction of packback

period to 6 years

Source: Silver Spring Networks

ROI networked LEDs

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Semiconductor power management: a fast growing large market

• Power Management Integrated Circuits (PMIC) are a sub-segment of the Semiconductor market.

• Power management is a critical element of every electronic system, from mobile devices, refrigerators, PCs to infrastructure systems.

• PMICs include power transistors, integrated circuits, power amplifiers, and customized chips, that used to manage power requirements.

• Several long-term trends support continued strong growth in demand for PMIC: growth in demand for portable devices (smartphones, laptops), proliferation of data centers and increasing penetration of renewable energy. 10

Power management IC market Source: Transparency Market Research

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2018E

In U

SD

Bln

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11

Home automation: on the right side of history?

• Acquisition of Nest Labs ($3.2bn) by Google has drawn attention to the sector

• Control of lights, climate, security, electronics, pool, shades, ...

• Remote access through mobile phone or tablet.

The connected home Source: Control4

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLzA9RXycpU&feature=player_detailpag

e

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H2: bridging the gap from generation to storage to use

• Power-to-gas: where and when it is needed

• Natural gas grid: massive seasonal storage capacity

• Companies now close to EBITDA break-even

• First applications at onsite generation, telecom backup power systems, warehouse forklifts, …

Power-to-Gas Source: Hydrogenics

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Cluster Current focus Currently less attractive

Natural Gas • LNG engineering & construction • Selected Pipeline operators,

distribution & power generators

• Exploration & production companies (negative FCF)

Renewable Energies

• Upstream solar poly-Si suppliers • Project developers • Selected wind farm operators

• Solar cells and module manufacturers (low barriers of entry)

• Brazilian hydropower (regulatory issues)

Distributed Energy Systems

• Energy storage for consumer electronics, (plug-in) electric vehicles, stationary solutions

• Infrastructure contractors • Selected smart grid suppliers

• Grid operators (interest rate sensitivity)

Energy Efficiency

• LED whole value chain • Industrial automation / processing • Semiconductor power management

• Natural gas vehicles (capital requirements, cost curve)

Current portfolio positioning Investment preferences as of May 2014

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Portfolio characteristics - Cluster weights

14

Source: Bloomberg (31.03.2014)

• Cyclical growth: a) Exposure into energy storage, Buildings (LEDs) and industrial processes maintained

b) Further diversification with solar, wind, EPC, power management, transportation

• Exposure to utilities reduced significantly (gas utilities, grid operators, renewable power producers)

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

Dec-12

Mar-13

Jun-13

Sep-13

Dec-13

Mar-14

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Exposure by Clusters (vs. STR, excluding cash)

Exposure by Regions (vs. STR and MSCI World, Company Domicile, excluding cash)

Exposure by Market Capitalization (vs. STR and MSCI World)

The data stated above may differ from data on the monthly factsheets due to different sources.

Portfolio exposures

15

RobecoSAM Smart Energy STR (Strategic Theme Reference) MSCI World Index

RobecoSAM Smart Energy Fund (31.03.2014, B-Shares, net, EUR)

37.3%

23.7%

20.3%

18.6%

37.9%

30.8%

15.4%

15.5%

0% 20% 40% 60%

Energyefficiency

Natural Gas

DistributedEnergy Systems

RenewableEnergy

26.9%

50.8%

22.3%

48.2%

40.5%

11.2%

88.7%

11.7%

0.0%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Large Caps (>USD 10bn)

Mid Caps (USD2-10bn)

Small Caps (<USD 2bn)

42.8%

30.5%

26.7%

49.1%

24.8%

26.1%

58.9%

27.8%

13.1%

0% 20% 40% 60%

Americas

Europe

Pacific Rim

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Performance attribution

• Positive contributions: solar companies SunEdison & Wacker Chemie, wind turbines Vestas & Gamesa,

semi power mgt. Dialog Semi, LED chip producer Epistar, battery manufacturers Saft Groupe & Enersys, …

• Negative contributions: wind farm operator Electrawinds, natural gas utilities Osaka Gas & Toho Gas,

semi/LED equipment manufacturer Ultratech, natural gas engines company Westport, …

Stock selection (1Y rolling, till end of March 2014) Source: Bloomberg performance attribution

Avg % Wgt Tot Rtn CTR CTR (LCL) CTR (Crncy) Start % Wgt End % Wgt

SUNEDISON INC 2.72 118.07 2.73 2.94 -0.21 1.04

VESTAS WIND SYSTEMS A/S 1.93 99.24 2.25 2.26 0.00 3.21

GAMESA CORP TECNOLOGICA SA 1.88 83.26 1.61 1.61 0.00 0.98

WACKER CHEMIE AG 2.30 50.38 1.58 1.58 0.00 0.53

DIALOG SEMICONDUCTOR PLC 1.58 69.46 1.07 1.07 0.00 2.83

EPISTAR CORP 3.10 24.67 1.05 1.37 -0.32 2.51 3.88

GT ADVANCED TECHNOLOGIES INC 0.24 72.13 0.91 0.93 -0.02 0.24

FIRST SOLAR INC 1.16 5.72 0.84 0.91 -0.07 4.79

ENERSYS 2.11 36.29 0.78 0.94 -0.16 2.50

SAFT GROUPE SA 2.04 31.18 0.73 0.73 0.00 1.31 1.66

Avg % Wgt Tot Rtn CTR CTR (LCL) CTR (Crncy) Start % Wgt End % Wgt

ELECTRAWINDS SE 0.36 -86.62 -0.77 -0.77 0.00 0.72

OSAKA GAS CO LTD 2.50 -17.93 -0.51 0.08 -0.59 6.15 0.36

ULTRATECH INC 1.26 -38.86 -0.51 -0.42 -0.09 0.47

WESTPORT INNOVATIONS INC 0.47 -45.68 -0.50 -0.47 -0.03 0.03

POLYPORE INTERNATIONAL INC 0.88 -20.33 -0.49 -0.47 -0.02 0.83

KBR INC 1.91 -29.26 -0.49 -0.34 -0.14 1.25

ENERGY DEVELOPMENT CORP 0.79 -20.79 -0.47 -0.23 -0.24 2.03

YOUNGTEK ELECTRONICS CORP 1.45 -16.81 -0.45 -0.31 -0.14 2.75

TOHO GAS CO LTD 1.04 -22.09 -0.43 -0.23 -0.20 1.30

BROOKFIELD RENEWABLE ENERGY 1.26 -10.91 -0.40 -0.20 -0.20 3.29

Bottom 10 Contribution to Return

Top 10 Contribution to Return

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* Company Domicile

The data stated above may differ from data on the monthly factsheets due to different sources.

Portfolio top 10 holdings

17

RobecoSAM Smart Energy Fund (31.03.2014, B-Shares, net, EUR)

Company Country * Cluster Current Weight

First Solar Inc USA Renewable Energy 4.80%

Epistar Corp Taiwan Energy Efficiency 3.90%

Samsung SDI Co Ltd South Korea Distributed Energy Systems 3.32%

APA Group Australia Natural Gas 3.26%

Vestas Wind Systems A/S Denmark Renewable Energy 3.21%

Sempra Energy USA Natural Gas 3.16%

Dialog Semiconductor PLC Germany Energy Efficiency 2.83%

ABB Ltd Switzerland Energy Efficiency 2.64%

Linde AG Germany Energy Efficiency 2.64%

OSRAM Licht AG Germany Energy Efficiency 2.64%

Total 32.41%

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The data stated above may differ from data on the monthly factsheets due to different sources.

Key Data

Portfolio characteristics - Data

18

RobecoSAM Smart Energy Fund (31.03.2014, B-Shares, net, EUR)

Inception Date September 23, 2003

Total Fund Volume in EUR (in m) 208

Number of Holdings 66

RobecoSAM Smart Energy Fund Strategic Theme Reference MSCI World

Average Market Cap USD (m) 13'018 15'295 91'211

Price Earnings Ratio forward (E) 21.71 19.29 14.90

Dividend Yield 1year 1.49 1.71 2.48

Long-Term Earnings Growth (E) 14.16% 13.73% 11.58%

PEG Ratio 1.53x 1.40x 1.29x

Ex-ante Beta vs. MSCI 1.10 1.05 1.00

Ex-ante Volatility 15.71% 14.35% 13.11%

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-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

09.03 11.04 01.06 03.07 05.08 07.09 09.10 11.11 01.13 03.14

RobecoSAM Smart Energy Fund MSCI World TRN

Performance versus MSCI World - since inception

Past performance is no indication of future results. The values and returns indicated here do not consider the fees and costs which may be charged when subscribing, redeeming and/or switching units.

Performance & Risk Characteristics

Portfolio performance

19

RobecoSAM Smart Energy Fund (31.03.2014, B-Shares, EUR)

Absolute Risk (since inception) 24.14%

Absolute Risk MSCI World TRN (since inception) 12.40%

Tracking Error (since inception) 17.04%

Information Ratio -0.02

Sharpe Ratio (since inception) 0.16

Beta versus MSCI World TRN 1.45

Jensen's Alpha -2.15%

YTDlast

month

last 3

months

last 6

months

last 12

months

last 2

years

p.a.

last 3

years

p.a.

last 5

years

p.a.

since

inception

p.a. *

RobecoSAM Smart Energy Fund 7.16% 1.14% 7.16% 10.34% 6.90% 3.64% -2.72% 11.03% 5.64%

MSCI World TRN 1.24% 0.36% 1.24% 7.41% 10.93% 13.42% 11.29% 17.39% 5.93%

Excess Return 5.91% 0.78% 5.91% 2.93% -4.03% -9.78% -14.02% -6.36% -0.29%

*23.09.2003

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Conclusions

• Renewable energy sector: massive cost reductions leading to self-sustained markets

• Distributed storage (stationary or mobile): from vision to reality

• The intelligent use of energy through innovation / networking overlay:

• LEDs

• Semiconductor power management

• Virtual servers

• Home automation

• Smart grid

• H2: the old-new kid on the block, serving as a bridge to store electricity in the natural gas grid, or to use it as a transportation fuel

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RobecoSAM Smart Energy

Legal structure: Investment fund under Luxemburg law (SICAV Part I)

Umbrella fund: Part of the Julius Baer Multipartner

Investment Advisor: RobecoSAM AG

Custodian bank: State Street Bank Luxembourg SA

Reference currency: EUR

Currency tranches: EUR, USD, CHF, SGD

Management fee: B-Shares: 1.5% p.a. (accumulation) C-Shares: 0.8% p.a. (accumulation)

Security numbers: B-Shares: LU0175571735 (ISIN) / 1666.258 (Valor) C-Shares: LU0199356550 (ISIN) / 1930.473 (Valor)

Contact: Tel: +41 44 653 10 10

[email protected], www.robecosam.com

The European SRI Transparency logo signifies that RobecoSAM commits to provide accurate, adequate and timely information to enable stakeholders, in particular consumers, to understand the Socially Responsible Investment (SRI) policies and practices relating to the fund. Detailed information about the European SRI Transparency Guidelines can be found at: www.eurosif.org, and information of the SRI policies and practices of the RobecoSAM Smart Energy Fund can be found at: www.robecosam.com. The Transparency Guidelines are managed by Eurosif, an independent organisation. The European SRI Transparency Logo reflects the fund manager’s commitment as detailed above and should not be taken as an endorsement of any particular company, organisation or individual.

Key Data

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Disclaimer

Important legal information:

The details given on these pages do not constitute an offer. They are given for information purposes only. No liability is assumed for the correctness and accuracy of the details given. The value of the units and the return they generate can go down as well as up. They are affected by market volatility and by fluctuations in exchange rates. Past performance is no indication of future results. The values and returns indicated here do not consider the fees and costs which may be charged when subscribing, redeeming and/or switching units. The breakdown into sectors, countries and currencies as well as possibly indicated benchmarks is liable to change at any time in line with the investment policy determined in the Prospectus. The translation into action of fund recommendations contained in these documents shall always lie in the sole responsibility of the intermediary or investor. Investments should only be made after a thorough reading of the current Prospectus and/or the Fund Regulations, the current Key Investor Information Document (KIID) and articles of association, the latest annual and semi-annual reports and after advice has been obtained from an independent finance and tax specialist. The documents mentioned can be obtained free of charge by calling the local RobecoSAM office, on www.robecosam.com or from any address indicated below. The range of RobecoSAM investment funds with domicile in Luxembourg (SICAV) is registered for public offering in Luxembourg, Switzerland, Germany, Austria, France, Holland, Sweden, Spain, Belgium, Ireland, United Kingdom, Singapore* and Italy. However, due to the different registration proceedings in the various countries, no guarantee can be given that each fund or share category is or will be registered in every jurisdiction and at the same time. For an up to date registration list, please refer to www.robecosam.com. Please note that in any jurisdiction where a fund or share category is not registered for public offering, they may, subject to the applicable local regulation, only be sold in the course of private placement or institutional investments. Particularly, the RobecoSAM funds are not registered and, therefore, may not be offered for sale or be sold in the United States of America and their dependencies. In a case of private placement this pages are destined exclusively for internal use by the intermediary appointed by RobecoSAM and/or the institutional investor and shall not be passed over to third parties. Particularly, this document shall under no circumstances be used as material for public offering or any other kind of promoting to the public of the RobecoSAM funds or their share categories. Switzerland: Representative is Swiss & Global Asset Management Ltd., Hardstrasse 201, Postfach, CH-8037 Zurich. Paying Agent: Bank Julius Bär & Co. AG, Bahnhofstrasse 36, Postfach, CH-8010 Zurich. Germany: Information Agent is Swiss & Global Asset Management Kapital AG, Taunusanlage 15, D-60325 Frankfurt am Main. Paying Agent is DekaBank, Deutsche Girozentrale, Hahnstrasse 55, D-60528 Frankfurt am Main. Austria: Paying Agent is Erste Bank der österreichischen Sparkassen AG, Graben 21, A-1010 Vienna. Spain: RobecoSAM investment funds are registered in the Registry of Foreign Collective Investment Institutions Commercialized in Spain of the CNMV: Julius Baer Multipartner (No. 421). For a list of registered distributors in Spain, please refer to www.cnmv.es. Copyright © 2014 RobecoSAM - all rights reserved.

*restricted recognition for institutional investors in Singapore

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