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Robert Kwiatkowski - Director CEE Markets Business Development Department March, 2008 WSE WSE EQUITY MARKET OVERVIEW EQUITY MARKET OVERVIEW

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Page 1: Robert Kwiatkowski - Director CEE Markets Business Development Department March, 2008 WSE EQUITY MARKET OVERVIEW

Robert Kwiatkowski - DirectorCEE Markets Business Development DepartmentMarch, 2008

WSE WSE EQUITY MARKET OVERVIEWEQUITY MARKET OVERVIEW

Page 2: Robert Kwiatkowski - Director CEE Markets Business Development Department March, 2008 WSE EQUITY MARKET OVERVIEW

POLAND – THE LARGEST ECONOMY IN CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

Poland – high growth potential

GDP in 2007

34%

38%

16%

13%

Austria

Poland

Czech Republic

Hungary

Population in 2007 (%, mln)

12%

57%

15%

15%

Poland

Austria

Hungary

Czech Republic

( 38 mln)

( 8 mln)

( 10 mln)

GDP growth in 2007

6,5%5,8%

3,3%

1,4%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Poland CzechRepublic

Austria Hungary

Surce: Eurostat

Page 3: Robert Kwiatkowski - Director CEE Markets Business Development Department March, 2008 WSE EQUITY MARKET OVERVIEW

Surce: Polish Central Statistical OfficeHigh quarterly growth continues

GDP QUARTERLY GROWTH 2005-2007

2,4

6,4

3,24,3

4,45,5

6,06,3 6,6

6,47,2

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

10,0

I q.05

II q.05

III q.05

IV q.05

I q06

II q06

III q06

IV q06

I q.07

II q.07

III q.07

%

Page 4: Robert Kwiatkowski - Director CEE Markets Business Development Department March, 2008 WSE EQUITY MARKET OVERVIEW

Source: Polish Central Statistical Office

Sound base for future growth of Polish economy

QUARTERLY GROWTH OF INVESTMENTS AND CONSUMPTION 2005-2007

10,1

15,918 16,6

26,2

20,8 19,8

5,22,51,6 5,16,95,15,62,5

4,85,41,4

6,4

3,9

9

1,2

05

1015202530

I q.05

II q.05

III q.05

IV q.05

I q 06 II q06

III q06

IV q06

I q.07

II q.07

III q.07

%

Individual consumption Investments GDP

Page 5: Robert Kwiatkowski - Director CEE Markets Business Development Department March, 2008 WSE EQUITY MARKET OVERVIEW

3,2 4,4

5,5 6,0 6,3 6,6 6,46,4

2,4 4,3

7,2

12,1

22,4

1,5

9,3

6,5

11,710,1

14,6

12,8

6,1

9,3

3,8

1,1 0,9

11,611,4

10,8

17,516,6

15

23,7

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

I q. 0

5

II q.

05

III q

. 05

IV q

. 05

I q 0

6

II q

06

III q

06

IV q

06

I q. 0

7

II q.

07

III q

. 07

% GDPExportImport

QUARTERLY GROWTH OF FOREIGN TRADE

Declaining contribution of foreign trade balance to GDP

Page 6: Robert Kwiatkowski - Director CEE Markets Business Development Department March, 2008 WSE EQUITY MARKET OVERVIEW

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND RETAILED SALES DYNAMICS

15,4

13,0

11,3

12,6

8,1

5,6

10,4

8,9

5,4

10,8

8,5

6,4

10,8

16,316,9

17,7

13,6 13,414,3

15,016,1

12,2

16,3

15,1

8,1

15,9

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

10,0

12,0

14,0

16,0

18,0

20,0Ja

n-07

Feb

-07

Mar

-07

Apr

-07

May

-07

Jun-

07

Jul-0

7

Aug

-07

Sep

-07

Oct

-07

Nov

-07

Dec

-07

Jan-

08

%

Industrial production

Retail salls

Strong trend of production and retailed sales continues

Page 7: Robert Kwiatkowski - Director CEE Markets Business Development Department March, 2008 WSE EQUITY MARKET OVERVIEW

INFLATION AND INTEREST RATE IN POLAND

Surce: Polish Central Statistical Office

0

5

10

15

20

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

%

Inflation rateReference rate

Increasing inflationary pressure

Page 8: Robert Kwiatkowski - Director CEE Markets Business Development Department March, 2008 WSE EQUITY MARKET OVERVIEW

CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES

Strenghtening Polish currency after entering EU

Surce: European Central Bank

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

5,0Ja

n-03

Apr

-03

Jul-0

3

Oct

-03

Jan-

04

Apr

-04

Jul-0

4

Oct

-04

Jan-

05

Apr

-05

Jul-0

5

Oct

-05

Jan-

06

Apr

-06

Jul-0

6

Oct

-06

Jan-

07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7

Oct

-07

EU

R/P

LN

, US

D/P

LN

EUR/PLN

USD/PLN

Jan-

08

Page 9: Robert Kwiatkowski - Director CEE Markets Business Development Department March, 2008 WSE EQUITY MARKET OVERVIEW

EUROPEAN LABOUR FORCE RATING*

• Rating based on 15 factors relating to:

1. Labour supply

2. Human capital

3. Employee relations

4. Inflationary pressures

5. Labour flexibility

• Rating provides assessment of HR based investment risk for foreign companies investing in another country

Poland ranked 1st among 31 European countries

* By Federation of European Employers

Rank Country Rating

1 Poland +6

2 Denmark +2

3 Slovenia +2

4 Switzerland +2

5 United Kingdom +2

Page 10: Robert Kwiatkowski - Director CEE Markets Business Development Department March, 2008 WSE EQUITY MARKET OVERVIEW

INDICES PERFORMANCE IN 2003 -2008

Strong index WIG20 performance starting from 2005

50

100

150

200

250

300

350Ja

n-0

3

Ma

y-0

3

Se

p-0

3

Ja

n-0

4

Ma

y-0

4

Se

p-0

4

Ja

n-0

5

Ma

y-0

5

Se

p-0

5

Ja

n-0

6

Ma

y-0

6

Se

p-0

6

Ja

n-0

7

Ma

y-0

7

Se

p-0

7

Ja

n-0

8

WIG20

NASDAQ

DJIAFTSE 100

Page 11: Robert Kwiatkowski - Director CEE Markets Business Development Department March, 2008 WSE EQUITY MARKET OVERVIEW

WSE Main List(regulated market)

Non-regulated market

GPWWSE

WSE MARKETS

28Powielanie bądź publikowanie niniejszego opracowania lub jakiejkolwiek jego części lub rozpowszechnianie w inny sposób informacji zawartych w niniejszym opracowaniu wymaga uprzedniej pisemnej zgody GPW w Warszawie SA

Page 12: Robert Kwiatkowski - Director CEE Markets Business Development Department March, 2008 WSE EQUITY MARKET OVERVIEW

PUBLIC OFFER

PROSPECTUS MEMORANDUM

• Financial requirements • Financial statements together with auditor’s opinions for at least past three consecutive financial years• 6-9 months lasting procedure

PRIVATE PLACEMENT

INFORMATION DOCUMENT

ACCESS TO THE WSE

• No financial requirements • Market accessible for start-ups• App. 3 months lasting procedure

Page 13: Robert Kwiatkowski - Director CEE Markets Business Development Department March, 2008 WSE EQUITY MARKET OVERVIEW

13

WSE INDEX FAMILY

Page 14: Robert Kwiatkowski - Director CEE Markets Business Development Department March, 2008 WSE EQUITY MARKET OVERVIEW

14

2007 - NEW COMPANIES

105 IPOs, including 24 in NewConnect market and 12 foreign companies

Record high value of offerings: above PLN 18.3 bn (EUR 5.05.bn) (Main market and NewConnect market)

Immoeast – the largest ever public offering at WSE worth PLN 10.7 bn (EUR 3 bn)

Silvano Fashion Group – first Estonian company listed at WSE; additionally at WSE their IPOs had first companies from Italy, Spain, Cyprus and Sweden

LC Corp – the largest ever public offering of a private company (PLN 1.06 bn)

Kernel Holding – the second Ukrainian company at WSE; the offering worth above PLN 500 M

UniCredit – a company with the highest capitalisation at WSE – approx. PLN 270 bn, i.e. almost the same value as the value of all foreign companies listed at WSE (approx. PLN 300 bn)

Page 15: Robert Kwiatkowski - Director CEE Markets Business Development Department March, 2008 WSE EQUITY MARKET OVERVIEW

15

2008 - NEW COMPANIES ON WSE MAIN LIST

Company Date of debut

Issue price or reference price) (in PLN)

Closing price on the day of debut (PLN)

Value of IPO (PLN)

Atlas Estates 12.02.08 14,32 16,00 0,00

Optopol Technology 19,.02.08 20,00 26,81 66 000 000,00

ZM Herman 28.02.08 1,80 1,91 1 905 249,60

Skyline Investment 18.03.08 9,00   18 000 000,00

Page 16: Robert Kwiatkowski - Director CEE Markets Business Development Department March, 2008 WSE EQUITY MARKET OVERVIEW

16

  Company Date of debut Value of new issue

(PLN) Cost (PLN) (%)

1 Alumast 2008-01-03 2 434 600,00 130 700,00 5,37

2 Polman 2008-01-10 2 985 680,00 240 026,00 8,04

3Grupa Pactor-Potempa

Inkasso S.A. 2008-01-18 2 550 000,00 83 000,00 3,25

4Euro Consulting &

Management S.A. 2008-01-24 9 767 230,00 734 097,93 7,52

5 Rodan Systems 2008-01-28 4 725 182,00 196 302,49 4,15

6Organic Farma

Zdrowia 2008-01-30 10 712 135,20 541 398,38 5,05

7 Blue Tax Group 2008-02-06 4 000 000,00 440 000,00 11,00

8 VENO 2008-02-07 0,00

9 EPIGON 2008-02-13 0,00

10KRYNICKI

RECYKLING 2008-02-14 4 000 046,60 246 891,00 6,17

11 MAXIPIZZA 2008-02-21 0,00

12 ATON-HT 2008-02-29 8 850 000,00 377 500,00 4,26

13 EUROIMPLANT 2008-03-18 11 100 016,00 806 000,00 7,26

TOTAL 62 258 218,80

2008 - NEW COMPANIES ON NEWCONNECT

Page 17: Robert Kwiatkowski - Director CEE Markets Business Development Department March, 2008 WSE EQUITY MARKET OVERVIEW

17

WSE PREFORMANCE – 2007 vs 2006

  2007 2006 Change Mar 27, 2008

WIG 20 index 3,456 3,286 5.2% 2,873

WIG Index 55,649 50,412 10.4% 46,397

No. of listed companies 351 284 23.6% 353

No. Of IPOs 81 38 113.2% 4

Market capitalisation (domestic companies) (PLNbn) 509.9 437.7 16.5% 414.2

Market capitalisation (total)(PLNbn) 1,080.2 635.9 69.9% 887.5

Value of traded shares (PLNbn) 479.5 320.3 49.7% 83.2

Page 18: Robert Kwiatkowski - Director CEE Markets Business Development Department March, 2008 WSE EQUITY MARKET OVERVIEW

18

INTERNATIONAL COMPANIES LISTED ON WSE (1)COMPANY COUNTRY OF ORIGIN SECTOR

BANK AUSTRIA CREDITANSTALT AG (2003) AUSTRIA BANKING

BMP AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT (2004) GERMANY NEW TECHNOLOGY/IT

MOL (2004) HUNGARY CHEMICAL

AMREST HOLDING NV. (2005) NETHERLANDS OTHER SERVICES (Pizza Hut, KFC Restaurants)

SKYEUROPE AG(2005) AUSTRIA OTHER SERVICES (airlines)

ASTARTA (August 2006) UKRAINE / NETHERLANDS AGRICULTURE/FOOD

ASSECO SLOVAKIA (October 2006) SLOVAKIA NEW TECHNOLOGY/IT

CEZ (October 2006) CZECH REPUBLIC OTHER SERVICES (energy production)

CINEMA CITY (December 2006) NETHERLANDS MEDIA

CENTRAL EUROPEAN DISTRIBUTION CORPORATION (December 2006)

USA TRADE/WHOLESALE/RETAIL

PEGAS NONWOVENS (December 2006) CZECH REPUBLIC CHEMICAL

Page 19: Robert Kwiatkowski - Director CEE Markets Business Development Department March, 2008 WSE EQUITY MARKET OVERVIEW

19

INTERNATIONAL COMPANIES LISTED ON WSE (2)

COMPANY COUNTRY OF ORIGIN SECTORWARIMPEX (January 2007) AUSTRIA CONSTRUCTION

IMMOEAST (May 2007) AUSTRIA FINANCE OTHER

ACE (June 2007) SPAIN/LUXEMBOURG METAL

ORCO PROPERTY GROUP (June 2007) LUXEMBOURG CONSTRUCTION

AS SILVANO FASHION GROUP (July 2007) ESTONIA LIGHT INDUSTRY

OLYMPIC ENTERTAINMENT GROUP (September 2007)

ESTONIA OTHER SERVICES (casino operator)

Plaza Center N.V. (October 2007) NETHERLANDS DEVELOPERS /SHOPPING AND ENTERTAINMENT CENTERS/

ASBIS (October 2007) /MOVE FROM AIM/ CYPRUS IT /COMPUTER EQUIPMENT DISTRIBUTOR/

RONSON (November 2007) ISRAEL / NETHERLANDS DEVELOPERS

KERNEL (November 2007) UKRAINE/LUXEMBOURG FOOD

REINHOLD POLSKA (December 2007) SWEDEN DEVELOPERS

UNICREDIT (December 2007) ITALY BANKING

Page 20: Robert Kwiatkowski - Director CEE Markets Business Development Department March, 2008 WSE EQUITY MARKET OVERVIEW

20

INTERNATIONAL COMPANIES LISTED ON WSE (3)

COMPANY COUNTRY OF ORIGIN SECTORATLAS ESTATES (February 2008) CHANNEL ISLANDS DEVELOPERS

Page 21: Robert Kwiatkowski - Director CEE Markets Business Development Department March, 2008 WSE EQUITY MARKET OVERVIEW

21

IN THE PIPELINE COMPANY DATE OF PROSPECTUS

APPROVAL BY KNFCYFROWY POLSAT January 2008

GAMET /FSA in Luxembourg/ November 2007

HARDEX January 2008

HARPER HYGIENICS January 2008

HOOPLA.PL September 2007

K2 INTERNET January 2008

KROSGLASS December 2007

POWER MEDIA February 2008

PRO-BUD December 2007

UNIBEP February 2008

VOBIS February 2008

WOJTAS February 2008

Page 22: Robert Kwiatkowski - Director CEE Markets Business Development Department March, 2008 WSE EQUITY MARKET OVERVIEW

22

WSE SECTOR INDICATORS, as of March 27, 2008 (1)

  Name

Number of

companies

Market value (PLN m.)

Share in market P/BV P/E

Industry

1 Food 21 15 023.38 1.65 3.21 15.5

2 Light Industry 12 2 178.80 0.24 1.78 63

3 Wood & Paper 8 5 879.42 0.65 2.32 12.9

4 Chemicals 20 16 680.57 1.84 1.88 10.1

5 Oil & Gas 6 80 300.16 8.84 1.37 10.1

6 Building materials 15 7 535.90 0.83 2.79 24.8

7 Construction 30 20 900.93 2.30 4.04 34.7

8 Electroengineering 26 9 806.69 1.08 1.90 11

9 Metals 19 31 139.71 3.43 2.22 6.8

10 Industry - others 4 532.77 0.06 1.39 190.9

Page 23: Robert Kwiatkowski - Director CEE Markets Business Development Department March, 2008 WSE EQUITY MARKET OVERVIEW

23

  Name Number of

companies Market value

(PLN m.)Share in

market P/BV P/E

Finance

11 Banking 17 468 644.55 51.58 1.79 10.1

12 Insurance 1 1 055.25 0.12 4.08 13.1

13 Developers 17 26 193.27 2.88 1.84 8.3

14 Finance - others 24 22 210.23 2.44 0.70 8.8

Services

15 Retails 23 15 544.93 1.71 4.57 26.8

16 Wholesale 28 12 725.83 1.40 2.36 19.4

17 IT 32 11 368.72 1.25 1.84 18.1

18 Telecom 7 33 923.84 3.73 1.68 16.3

19 Media 14 14 381.13 1.58 3.53 26.9

20 Energetics 5 104 172.37 11.47 4.29 18.1

21Hotels &

Restaurants 7 6 133.07 0.68 2.17 20.7

22 Services - others 14 2 181.46 0.24 2.26 x

WSE SECTOR INDICATORS, as of March 27, 2008 (2)

Page 24: Robert Kwiatkowski - Director CEE Markets Business Development Department March, 2008 WSE EQUITY MARKET OVERVIEW

24

WSE MAIN LIST COMPANIES – SECTORS AND SHARE IN MARKET CAP

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Number of companies Share in market value %

Page 25: Robert Kwiatkowski - Director CEE Markets Business Development Department March, 2008 WSE EQUITY MARKET OVERVIEW

25

LARGEST COMPANIES IN THE REGION

LISTED ON THE WSE

  Company SectorMarket value

(PLNm) P/BV P/E

1 UNICREDIT banking 206 481,36 1,38 9,2

2 CEZ energetics 100 142,85 4,34 17,9

3 BACA banking 96 975,24 1,74 7,9

4 PEKAO banking 43 247,27 2,97 20

5 PKOBP banking 39 080,00 3,28 13,5

6 TPSA telecom 30 414,14 1,71 13,4

7 MOL oil&gas 29 941,41 2,67 8,3

8 PGNIG oil&gas 26 845,00 1,26 21,5

9 KGHM metal industry 19 100,00 2,02 4,8

10 IMMOEAST other financial 16 518,06 0,58 7,1

11 PKNORLEN oil&gas 15 264,94 0,77 6,6

12 LOTOS oil&gas 3 582,69 0,62 4,7

Page 26: Robert Kwiatkowski - Director CEE Markets Business Development Department March, 2008 WSE EQUITY MARKET OVERVIEW

26

CEE Markets Business Development Department Warsaw Stock Exchange

4 Książęca Str., 00-498 Warsaw Poland

Robert Kwiatkowski,

Tel: +48 22 537 70 98, [email protected],