robert kwiatkowski - director cee markets business development department march, 2008 wse equity...
TRANSCRIPT
Robert Kwiatkowski - DirectorCEE Markets Business Development DepartmentMarch, 2008
WSE WSE EQUITY MARKET OVERVIEWEQUITY MARKET OVERVIEW
POLAND – THE LARGEST ECONOMY IN CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
Poland – high growth potential
GDP in 2007
34%
38%
16%
13%
Austria
Poland
Czech Republic
Hungary
Population in 2007 (%, mln)
12%
57%
15%
15%
Poland
Austria
Hungary
Czech Republic
( 38 mln)
( 8 mln)
( 10 mln)
GDP growth in 2007
6,5%5,8%
3,3%
1,4%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Poland CzechRepublic
Austria Hungary
Surce: Eurostat
Surce: Polish Central Statistical OfficeHigh quarterly growth continues
GDP QUARTERLY GROWTH 2005-2007
2,4
6,4
3,24,3
4,45,5
6,06,3 6,6
6,47,2
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
I q.05
II q.05
III q.05
IV q.05
I q06
II q06
III q06
IV q06
I q.07
II q.07
III q.07
%
Source: Polish Central Statistical Office
Sound base for future growth of Polish economy
QUARTERLY GROWTH OF INVESTMENTS AND CONSUMPTION 2005-2007
10,1
15,918 16,6
26,2
20,8 19,8
5,22,51,6 5,16,95,15,62,5
4,85,41,4
6,4
3,9
9
1,2
05
1015202530
I q.05
II q.05
III q.05
IV q.05
I q 06 II q06
III q06
IV q06
I q.07
II q.07
III q.07
%
Individual consumption Investments GDP
3,2 4,4
5,5 6,0 6,3 6,6 6,46,4
2,4 4,3
7,2
12,1
22,4
1,5
9,3
6,5
11,710,1
14,6
12,8
6,1
9,3
3,8
1,1 0,9
11,611,4
10,8
17,516,6
15
23,7
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
I q. 0
5
II q.
05
III q
. 05
IV q
. 05
I q 0
6
II q
06
III q
06
IV q
06
I q. 0
7
II q.
07
III q
. 07
% GDPExportImport
QUARTERLY GROWTH OF FOREIGN TRADE
Declaining contribution of foreign trade balance to GDP
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND RETAILED SALES DYNAMICS
15,4
13,0
11,3
12,6
8,1
5,6
10,4
8,9
5,4
10,8
8,5
6,4
10,8
16,316,9
17,7
13,6 13,414,3
15,016,1
12,2
16,3
15,1
8,1
15,9
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
14,0
16,0
18,0
20,0Ja
n-07
Feb
-07
Mar
-07
Apr
-07
May
-07
Jun-
07
Jul-0
7
Aug
-07
Sep
-07
Oct
-07
Nov
-07
Dec
-07
Jan-
08
%
Industrial production
Retail salls
Strong trend of production and retailed sales continues
INFLATION AND INTEREST RATE IN POLAND
Surce: Polish Central Statistical Office
0
5
10
15
20
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
%
Inflation rateReference rate
Increasing inflationary pressure
CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES
Strenghtening Polish currency after entering EU
Surce: European Central Bank
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0Ja
n-03
Apr
-03
Jul-0
3
Oct
-03
Jan-
04
Apr
-04
Jul-0
4
Oct
-04
Jan-
05
Apr
-05
Jul-0
5
Oct
-05
Jan-
06
Apr
-06
Jul-0
6
Oct
-06
Jan-
07
Apr
-07
Jul-0
7
Oct
-07
EU
R/P
LN
, US
D/P
LN
EUR/PLN
USD/PLN
Jan-
08
EUROPEAN LABOUR FORCE RATING*
• Rating based on 15 factors relating to:
1. Labour supply
2. Human capital
3. Employee relations
4. Inflationary pressures
5. Labour flexibility
• Rating provides assessment of HR based investment risk for foreign companies investing in another country
Poland ranked 1st among 31 European countries
* By Federation of European Employers
Rank Country Rating
1 Poland +6
2 Denmark +2
3 Slovenia +2
4 Switzerland +2
5 United Kingdom +2
INDICES PERFORMANCE IN 2003 -2008
Strong index WIG20 performance starting from 2005
50
100
150
200
250
300
350Ja
n-0
3
Ma
y-0
3
Se
p-0
3
Ja
n-0
4
Ma
y-0
4
Se
p-0
4
Ja
n-0
5
Ma
y-0
5
Se
p-0
5
Ja
n-0
6
Ma
y-0
6
Se
p-0
6
Ja
n-0
7
Ma
y-0
7
Se
p-0
7
Ja
n-0
8
WIG20
NASDAQ
DJIAFTSE 100
WSE Main List(regulated market)
Non-regulated market
GPWWSE
WSE MARKETS
28Powielanie bądź publikowanie niniejszego opracowania lub jakiejkolwiek jego części lub rozpowszechnianie w inny sposób informacji zawartych w niniejszym opracowaniu wymaga uprzedniej pisemnej zgody GPW w Warszawie SA
PUBLIC OFFER
PROSPECTUS MEMORANDUM
• Financial requirements • Financial statements together with auditor’s opinions for at least past three consecutive financial years• 6-9 months lasting procedure
PRIVATE PLACEMENT
INFORMATION DOCUMENT
ACCESS TO THE WSE
• No financial requirements • Market accessible for start-ups• App. 3 months lasting procedure
13
WSE INDEX FAMILY
14
2007 - NEW COMPANIES
105 IPOs, including 24 in NewConnect market and 12 foreign companies
Record high value of offerings: above PLN 18.3 bn (EUR 5.05.bn) (Main market and NewConnect market)
Immoeast – the largest ever public offering at WSE worth PLN 10.7 bn (EUR 3 bn)
Silvano Fashion Group – first Estonian company listed at WSE; additionally at WSE their IPOs had first companies from Italy, Spain, Cyprus and Sweden
LC Corp – the largest ever public offering of a private company (PLN 1.06 bn)
Kernel Holding – the second Ukrainian company at WSE; the offering worth above PLN 500 M
UniCredit – a company with the highest capitalisation at WSE – approx. PLN 270 bn, i.e. almost the same value as the value of all foreign companies listed at WSE (approx. PLN 300 bn)
15
2008 - NEW COMPANIES ON WSE MAIN LIST
Company Date of debut
Issue price or reference price) (in PLN)
Closing price on the day of debut (PLN)
Value of IPO (PLN)
Atlas Estates 12.02.08 14,32 16,00 0,00
Optopol Technology 19,.02.08 20,00 26,81 66 000 000,00
ZM Herman 28.02.08 1,80 1,91 1 905 249,60
Skyline Investment 18.03.08 9,00 18 000 000,00
16
Company Date of debut Value of new issue
(PLN) Cost (PLN) (%)
1 Alumast 2008-01-03 2 434 600,00 130 700,00 5,37
2 Polman 2008-01-10 2 985 680,00 240 026,00 8,04
3Grupa Pactor-Potempa
Inkasso S.A. 2008-01-18 2 550 000,00 83 000,00 3,25
4Euro Consulting &
Management S.A. 2008-01-24 9 767 230,00 734 097,93 7,52
5 Rodan Systems 2008-01-28 4 725 182,00 196 302,49 4,15
6Organic Farma
Zdrowia 2008-01-30 10 712 135,20 541 398,38 5,05
7 Blue Tax Group 2008-02-06 4 000 000,00 440 000,00 11,00
8 VENO 2008-02-07 0,00
9 EPIGON 2008-02-13 0,00
10KRYNICKI
RECYKLING 2008-02-14 4 000 046,60 246 891,00 6,17
11 MAXIPIZZA 2008-02-21 0,00
12 ATON-HT 2008-02-29 8 850 000,00 377 500,00 4,26
13 EUROIMPLANT 2008-03-18 11 100 016,00 806 000,00 7,26
TOTAL 62 258 218,80
2008 - NEW COMPANIES ON NEWCONNECT
17
WSE PREFORMANCE – 2007 vs 2006
2007 2006 Change Mar 27, 2008
WIG 20 index 3,456 3,286 5.2% 2,873
WIG Index 55,649 50,412 10.4% 46,397
No. of listed companies 351 284 23.6% 353
No. Of IPOs 81 38 113.2% 4
Market capitalisation (domestic companies) (PLNbn) 509.9 437.7 16.5% 414.2
Market capitalisation (total)(PLNbn) 1,080.2 635.9 69.9% 887.5
Value of traded shares (PLNbn) 479.5 320.3 49.7% 83.2
18
INTERNATIONAL COMPANIES LISTED ON WSE (1)COMPANY COUNTRY OF ORIGIN SECTOR
BANK AUSTRIA CREDITANSTALT AG (2003) AUSTRIA BANKING
BMP AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT (2004) GERMANY NEW TECHNOLOGY/IT
MOL (2004) HUNGARY CHEMICAL
AMREST HOLDING NV. (2005) NETHERLANDS OTHER SERVICES (Pizza Hut, KFC Restaurants)
SKYEUROPE AG(2005) AUSTRIA OTHER SERVICES (airlines)
ASTARTA (August 2006) UKRAINE / NETHERLANDS AGRICULTURE/FOOD
ASSECO SLOVAKIA (October 2006) SLOVAKIA NEW TECHNOLOGY/IT
CEZ (October 2006) CZECH REPUBLIC OTHER SERVICES (energy production)
CINEMA CITY (December 2006) NETHERLANDS MEDIA
CENTRAL EUROPEAN DISTRIBUTION CORPORATION (December 2006)
USA TRADE/WHOLESALE/RETAIL
PEGAS NONWOVENS (December 2006) CZECH REPUBLIC CHEMICAL
19
INTERNATIONAL COMPANIES LISTED ON WSE (2)
COMPANY COUNTRY OF ORIGIN SECTORWARIMPEX (January 2007) AUSTRIA CONSTRUCTION
IMMOEAST (May 2007) AUSTRIA FINANCE OTHER
ACE (June 2007) SPAIN/LUXEMBOURG METAL
ORCO PROPERTY GROUP (June 2007) LUXEMBOURG CONSTRUCTION
AS SILVANO FASHION GROUP (July 2007) ESTONIA LIGHT INDUSTRY
OLYMPIC ENTERTAINMENT GROUP (September 2007)
ESTONIA OTHER SERVICES (casino operator)
Plaza Center N.V. (October 2007) NETHERLANDS DEVELOPERS /SHOPPING AND ENTERTAINMENT CENTERS/
ASBIS (October 2007) /MOVE FROM AIM/ CYPRUS IT /COMPUTER EQUIPMENT DISTRIBUTOR/
RONSON (November 2007) ISRAEL / NETHERLANDS DEVELOPERS
KERNEL (November 2007) UKRAINE/LUXEMBOURG FOOD
REINHOLD POLSKA (December 2007) SWEDEN DEVELOPERS
UNICREDIT (December 2007) ITALY BANKING
20
INTERNATIONAL COMPANIES LISTED ON WSE (3)
COMPANY COUNTRY OF ORIGIN SECTORATLAS ESTATES (February 2008) CHANNEL ISLANDS DEVELOPERS
21
IN THE PIPELINE COMPANY DATE OF PROSPECTUS
APPROVAL BY KNFCYFROWY POLSAT January 2008
GAMET /FSA in Luxembourg/ November 2007
HARDEX January 2008
HARPER HYGIENICS January 2008
HOOPLA.PL September 2007
K2 INTERNET January 2008
KROSGLASS December 2007
POWER MEDIA February 2008
PRO-BUD December 2007
UNIBEP February 2008
VOBIS February 2008
WOJTAS February 2008
22
WSE SECTOR INDICATORS, as of March 27, 2008 (1)
Name
Number of
companies
Market value (PLN m.)
Share in market P/BV P/E
Industry
1 Food 21 15 023.38 1.65 3.21 15.5
2 Light Industry 12 2 178.80 0.24 1.78 63
3 Wood & Paper 8 5 879.42 0.65 2.32 12.9
4 Chemicals 20 16 680.57 1.84 1.88 10.1
5 Oil & Gas 6 80 300.16 8.84 1.37 10.1
6 Building materials 15 7 535.90 0.83 2.79 24.8
7 Construction 30 20 900.93 2.30 4.04 34.7
8 Electroengineering 26 9 806.69 1.08 1.90 11
9 Metals 19 31 139.71 3.43 2.22 6.8
10 Industry - others 4 532.77 0.06 1.39 190.9
23
Name Number of
companies Market value
(PLN m.)Share in
market P/BV P/E
Finance
11 Banking 17 468 644.55 51.58 1.79 10.1
12 Insurance 1 1 055.25 0.12 4.08 13.1
13 Developers 17 26 193.27 2.88 1.84 8.3
14 Finance - others 24 22 210.23 2.44 0.70 8.8
Services
15 Retails 23 15 544.93 1.71 4.57 26.8
16 Wholesale 28 12 725.83 1.40 2.36 19.4
17 IT 32 11 368.72 1.25 1.84 18.1
18 Telecom 7 33 923.84 3.73 1.68 16.3
19 Media 14 14 381.13 1.58 3.53 26.9
20 Energetics 5 104 172.37 11.47 4.29 18.1
21Hotels &
Restaurants 7 6 133.07 0.68 2.17 20.7
22 Services - others 14 2 181.46 0.24 2.26 x
WSE SECTOR INDICATORS, as of March 27, 2008 (2)
24
WSE MAIN LIST COMPANIES – SECTORS AND SHARE IN MARKET CAP
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Number of companies Share in market value %
25
LARGEST COMPANIES IN THE REGION
LISTED ON THE WSE
Company SectorMarket value
(PLNm) P/BV P/E
1 UNICREDIT banking 206 481,36 1,38 9,2
2 CEZ energetics 100 142,85 4,34 17,9
3 BACA banking 96 975,24 1,74 7,9
4 PEKAO banking 43 247,27 2,97 20
5 PKOBP banking 39 080,00 3,28 13,5
6 TPSA telecom 30 414,14 1,71 13,4
7 MOL oil&gas 29 941,41 2,67 8,3
8 PGNIG oil&gas 26 845,00 1,26 21,5
9 KGHM metal industry 19 100,00 2,02 4,8
10 IMMOEAST other financial 16 518,06 0,58 7,1
11 PKNORLEN oil&gas 15 264,94 0,77 6,6
12 LOTOS oil&gas 3 582,69 0,62 4,7
26
CEE Markets Business Development Department Warsaw Stock Exchange
4 Książęca Str., 00-498 Warsaw Poland
Robert Kwiatkowski,
Tel: +48 22 537 70 98, [email protected],