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1 Exploiting U.S. Long ng- g - Term Advantages to Restore ploiting U.S. Lon ng g erm Advantages to Resto Te T U.S. Global Power Projection Capability Robert Martinage e Senior Fellow

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Page 1: Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow 1Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow. 2 Introduction Antecedents of a “Third” Offset Strategy Why Not “Business As Usual”? Enduring U.S

1

Exploiting U.S. Longng-g-Term Advantages to Restore ploiting U.S. Lonngg erm Advantages to RestoTeTU.S. Global Power Projection Capability

Robert Martinage e –– Senior Fellow

Page 2: Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow 1Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow. 2 Introduction Antecedents of a “Third” Offset Strategy Why Not “Business As Usual”? Enduring U.S

2

Introduction

Antecedents of a “Third” Offset Strategy

Why Not “Business As Usual”?

Enduring U.S. Advantages

Implementing a New Offset Strategy: The GSS Concept

Conclusions

Agenda

Page 3: Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow 1Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow. 2 Introduction Antecedents of a “Third” Offset Strategy Why Not “Business As Usual”? Enduring U.S

3

Introduction

• DoDD faces a period of fiscal austerity of unknown duration• Nevertheless, numerous national security challenges cannot Nevertheless,

be ignored:–– Resurgent Russia–

Resurgent RussiaRR–– China seeks hegemony in East Asia–

China seeks hegemony in East AsiaCC–– North Korea as belligerent as ever–

North Korea as belligerent as everNN–– Iran expanding its missile arsenal, pursuing nuclear weapons–

Iran expanding its missile arsenal, pursuing nuclear weaponsII–– Radical Islamic threat in Iraq, Afghanistan, Africa, Central Asia–

Radical Islamic threat in Iraq, Afghanistan, Africa, Central AsiaRR– Adversaries deploying A2/AD systems specifically designed to threaten – Adversaries deploying A2/AD systems specificaAdversaries deploying A2/AD systems specificaAA

traditional U.S. methods of power projection

An offset strategy is needed to address growing scale and complexity of security challenges in a fiscally constrained ty challenges in aty challenges in a

environment

Page 4: Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow 1Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow. 2 Introduction Antecedents of a “Third” Offset Strategy Why Not “Business As Usual”? Enduring U.S

4

IntroductionAntecedents of a “Third” Offset StrategyWhy Not “Business As Usual”?Enduring U.S. AdvantagesImplementing a New Offset Strategy: The GSS ConceptConclusions

Outline

Page 5: Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow 1Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow. 2 Introduction Antecedents of a “Third” Offset Strategy Why Not “Business As Usual”? Enduring U.S

5

Historical Antecedents

Past DoD Efforts to Offset Numerical Inferiority:• 1950s – President Eisenhower’s “New Look” defense policy

emphasizes large numbers of nuclear weapons, long-range bombers, and missiles.

• 1970s – Secretary of Defense Harold Brown and Under Secretary William Perry direct DoD to develop stealth, precision strike weapons, and improved C4ISR.

President Eisenhower John Foster Dulles Harold Brown

55555555555555555555555555555

M-65 Atomic Canon“Atomic Annie”

HB1001“Have Blue”

1950s 1970s

Page 6: Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow 1Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow. 2 Introduction Antecedents of a “Third” Offset Strategy Why Not “Business As Usual”? Enduring U.S

6

Eisenhower’s “New Look”• Eisenhower determined to deter the USSRisenhower determined to deter

without bankrupting America.– Soviet conventional forces greatly outnumbered U.S. forces– Soviets could probe periphery and start proxy wars to exhaust U.S., as in Korea

1950–53 • Emphasized nuclear weapons, bomber forces, and missile forces as Emphasized nuclear weapons, bom

backstop to conventional forces:– Accelerated fielding of the hydrogen bomb – B-47 and B-52 bombers with KC-135 tankers– Atlas, Titan, and Minuteman ICBMs– George Washington SSBN with Polaris SLBMs– U-2 and Corona satellite for strategic reconnaissance– BMEWS, Nike, airborne alerts, dispersal, and silos for survivability

•, , , p ,

Air Force budget increased to 47% of ,

f DoDD spending;Air Force budget increased to 47% oof oDDoDArmy and Marine Corps budgets shrank

U-2 Dragon Lady

Atlas

• EiEiw

6666666666666666666666666666666

B-47

Page 7: Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow 1Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow. 2 Introduction Antecedents of a “Third” Offset Strategy Why Not “Business As Usual”? Enduring U.S

7

Eisenhower’s “New Look”

• Nation needs a a balanced strategy y to Nation needs aa alanced strategyba y o toconfront full range of anticipated threats.

• Global air warfare capability y provides valuable e strategic Global air warfare capabfreedom of maneuver.

• Threats of off asymmetric punishment nt can be an effective Threats oof symmetric punisasinstrument of deterrence.

• Covert operations s can provide an affordable option for Covert operations an provide acaachieving national objectives.

• Alliances matter – they complicate enemy planning and impose costs on competitorsrsrs.

U-2 Dragon Lady

Atlas

• NN

77777777777777777777777777777

B-47

N i d l dbN

The Key Lessons

Page 8: Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow 1Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow. 2 Introduction Antecedents of a “Third” Offset Strategy Why Not “Business As Usual”? Enduring U.S

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Brown / Perry Offset Strategy:Stealth, C4ISR and Precision Strike

• SecDefef Harold Brown and USD William Perry devised technologicalcDeef Harold Brown and USD William Perry devised technologicH“offset strategy” to counter 1970s Soviet conventional buildup.

•• Core thrusts were e ISR, PGMs, stealth hh aaircraft, antitt -titi-armor • Core thrusts wereCweapons, space

erecece-

SR, PGMs sISIeree ee--based ISR /

stealthMs, s/ / comms

a craft, anrci tti-athh asss / navigation

– Genesis of F-117, B-2, JSTARS, AWACS, GPS, ATACMS, BAT

•• Capabilities became integral to 1980s s AirLandd Battle concept•• Key Lessons:

– Technology multiplied combat effectiveness– Shifted competition into areas of U.S. advantage– “High-low” mix to meet scale of global presence requirement– Institutional commitment to “offset strategy” persisted

from Carter to Reagan administration

Assault Breaker

ATACMS

E-8 JSTARS

Missile with Bus

PAVE Mover

Surface Launcher Fusion Center Targets

Terminally Guided Sub-Munitions

•• SecS• SecS“of“

8888888888888888888888888888

Page 9: Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow 1Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow. 2 Introduction Antecedents of a “Third” Offset Strategy Why Not “Business As Usual”? Enduring U.S

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Toward a Third Offset Strategy

• New offset strategy should d exploit enduring U.S. advantages s in New offset strategy shoulddunmanned operations, long

dng-

ploit expxexg-range

nduring it ee and low

ring w-

U.S. advantageUng w-observable air unmannedunmanned op

operations, perationperations, ld opd op

s undersea lonlonnngnggg- angeangeaararar e e nd lownd lowanan wwww- bservable air bservable airoboboons, lns, l

a warfare, and complex systems engineering in operatioperationsorder to

s, s, nderseanderseaunun a a arfare, and complex systems engineerinarffaare, anare,are d compld co eex systems engineeex syex swwonsonssso o project power despite adversary A2/AD capabilities

gerineses.

• NNNew w strategy should also:– Reduce dependence on forward bases and space-based capabilities– Foster novel concepts of operation that leverage mix of new and legacy

capabilities– Increase emphasis on deterrence by denial and punishment rather than the

threat to restore the status quo• Premium on survivable forward presence and global responsiveness• Hold targets at risk within A2/AD umbrella and outside immediate combat zone

– Impose long-term costs upon rivals– Leverage alliances to gain positional advantage and share burdens

• NNuu

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Page 10: Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow 1Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow. 2 Introduction Antecedents of a “Third” Offset Strategy Why Not “Business As Usual”? Enduring U.S

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Antecedents of a “Third” Offset StrategyWhy Not “Business As Usual”?Enduring U.S. AdvantagesImplementing a New Offset Strategy: The GSS ConceptConclusions

Outline

Page 11: Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow 1Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow. 2 Introduction Antecedents of a “Third” Offset Strategy Why Not “Business As Usual”? Enduring U.S

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Power Projection: The Capacity Challenge

• 2014 QDR RR argues that U.S. will have sufficient military capacity to defeat 014 QDRR rgues that U.S. will have sufficient military capacity to defeat arone aggressor and “deny the objectives of, or impose unacceptable costs ne aggressor and deny the objectives of, one aggreessor and deny the objectives of, oessoon, another aggressor in another region.”

• US will ll likely lack the capacity to fight and win two major theater wars in US will kely lack the capaclikoverlapping timeframes

apacs s –

cipac– if

y to fight and win two major theaterityciffifif we don’t project power differently.

• As the e 2014 National Defense Panel Review w notes:– “A global war-fighting capability [is] the sine qua non of a superpower and

thus essential to the credibility of America’s overall national security strategy.”– “U.S. military must have the capability and capacity to deter or stop

aggression in multiple theaters – not just one – even when engaged in a large-scale war.”

• 202020ooo

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Page 12: Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow 1Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow. 2 Introduction Antecedents of a “Third” Offset Strategy Why Not “Business As Usual”? Enduring U.S

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Power Projection:The Capability Challenge

• Traditional approach to power projection:– Build up combat power and logistical support.– Maximize airpower sortie generation from close-in land- and sea-bases.– Employ heavy mechanized ground forces.

• Problems with the traditional approach:– Requires political access to forward bases and littoral waters.– Depends on unimpeded use of ports and airfields.– Strategically unresponsive – requires months to prepare.– Difficult to implement in multiple theaters simultaneously.– Entails growing operational risk…

Page 13: Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow 1Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow. 2 Introduction Antecedents of a “Third” Offset Strategy Why Not “Business As Usual”? Enduring U.S

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Operational Risks with the Traditional Approach

Kinetic ASAT

DFDF-FFFFFF-FFFF 21

Kilo, Song g -g Class SSN

Hongng-gggggg-6 Bomber

DFDF-FFFFF-FFFF 15

DFDF-FFFFFFFF-FFFF 15 variant

DFDF-FFFFFFFFF-FFFFF 11A

DFDF-FFFFFF-FFFF 15

DFDF-FFFFFFF-FFFF 11A

DFDF-FFFFFFF-FFFF 21D

SASA-A-N-N-NNNNNNNNN-20

Sovremenny Destroyer

SASA-A---22

S300

HQHQ-QQQQ-9

HYHY-YYYYYYY-YYYYYY 2

CC-CCCCCC-704/NASRHYHYHY-

HHYYYYYYY-YYY 2HHYYYYYYYYYYY--YYYYYYYY 3A

DHDH-HHHHHHHH-10

Sovremennyyyyy DestroyD30 days at 650 nm

75 days at 1,760 nmKilo, Songgg - lass SSCC18 days at 930 nm

D tD1 day at 130 nm

Laser ASAT

Modern Modern Fighters

1 day at 130 nmFast Attack Craft

Overer-Ovethe

-veerrrr-hee-thhee-

Horizon onH zoorizRadarSea Mines Antint -ti Satellite Anntti-- atelliteSaS

Capabilities

Antit -ti Ship

O

Anntti- hipShSBallistic Missiles

Landnd-d AttackLanndd- ttackAtABallistic Missiles

Landnd-d Attack / LanAnti

nndntt -

ttacAtAAndd-Atii Ship

22HHYY 2HAAAAAA

RAAAA

R Anntttii- phiphShShSCruise Missiles

Advanced AdvancIADS

Spacece-e based SpacISR/

- asedbabaccee/R//Comms

sedms/

eds//Nav

Strategic Strategigggggg cdepth/breadth

Honngg Bomber6 6

Maritime Strike MaritimeAircraft

Advanced Submarines

Naval Surface Forces

GG-G-RAMM attacks on basesGG AMM attacks on baseARARCBRN attacks on bases

Long Range Long RaAAMs

Counter-r PGM Counteeer- GPGPdefenses

Laser ASATDirected Directed DirectedEnergy

“Armed Merchant Armed Me“ACruisers”

• Close-in ports and airbases vulnerable to attack

• Surface ships and carriers easier to detect, track, and attack at range

• Non-stealthy aircraft vulnerable to modern IADS

• Space no longer a sanctuary ys at 1 760 nm75 day

Shang Class SSN

Cl i

1313131313131313133313131331313131131313313131131313133313

Page 14: Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow 1Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow. 2 Introduction Antecedents of a “Third” Offset Strategy Why Not “Business As Usual”? Enduring U.S

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Strategic Risks with the Traditional Approach

• Crisis Instability:– Strong incentive for enemy to preemptively attack forward U.S. bases, forces, and

on-orbit satellites• Cost Imposition on the United States:

– Defending regional hubs is very costly and cheaply countered•

g g y y p yWaning deterrent credibility and Allied confidencece:– Enemies may increasingly perceive the likely cost of U.S. intervention as high– Allies may begin to question credibility of U.S. security commitments

• Cr–

14

Mobile TELs

ALCMsLeakersLeakers

SLCMs

Leakers

Page 15: Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow 1Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow. 2 Introduction Antecedents of a “Third” Offset Strategy Why Not “Business As Usual”? Enduring U.S

15

Antecedents of a “Third” Offset StrategyWhy Not “Business As Usual”?Enduring U.S. AdvantagesImplementing a New Offset Strategy: The GSS ConceptConclusions

Outline

Page 16: Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow 1Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow. 2 Introduction Antecedents of a “Third” Offset Strategy Why Not “Business As Usual”? Enduring U.S

16

Leverage Key Enduring Sources of U.S. Advantage

– Unmanned operations– Extended-range air operations– Low-observable air operations– Undersea warfare– Complex systems engineering and integration

Page 17: Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow 1Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow. 2 Introduction Antecedents of a “Third” Offset Strategy Why Not “Business As Usual”? Enduring U.S

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Unmanned Operations

• U.S. is a world leader in unmanned systems development and U.S. is a world leader in unmanned systems development aoperation, as well as artificial intelligence and autonomy.– We have maintained large numbers of UAS, employed them in combat, and

trained operators two decades.

• Unmanned systems can provide e responsive, persistent coverage Unmanned systems can providee esponsive, persistenreneeded to find and attack mobile targets over wide

t covetene e areas

• Unmanned systems offer g

er er much lower lifefefe-ee-cycle costs s s relative to Unmanned systemmanned aircraft

• Current ntnt and planned joint UAS fleet primarily consists of shortrt-t- and Currentmedium

t m-

d planned joint UASnd nanm-range aircraft, and

S fleet prUASd d consists

rimarily consists of shot prs s almost entirely of non

shoonon-

rtt- nd aaorrshonn-stealthy mediummediummmmmm-rr

aircraft.

Medium RangeMediumMQ

iumQ-

RangRumQQ 1B/CMMQMQQQ

MQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQ

Q-/C/CB/B/QQQQQQQQQQQ- BBBB11

QQ 8BMMMMMQMMQMQMQ-

BBBB8B8B88QQQQQQQQQQQQQQQ--888QQQQQ 9AMQMQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQ--- AA99A99

UCLASSUUCRQUCUC

QRQ-SSSSSSSASASCLACCLA

QQQQQQQQQQQQ-170

Long RangeLong RaRQg Ra

RQ-ngeang Ra

QQ 4BRRRQRQMQ

QQQQMQMQQ-

BBBBBBQQQQQQQQQQQQ----4B4B44QQQQQQQ----4C

Joint UAS Fleet, FY17Unbalanced Range

Nonon-nnnn----------StealthyNoonn tealthytSPredatorPredatorPPredatorPredPredReaperReaperReaper

Fire ScoutFire ScoutFire ScoutGlobal HawkGlobal HawGlobal Haw

Triton

Semim -mii-----Stealthyemmmi tealthStSUCLASSUUUCLRQUCUCLRQRQ-

SSSSASASCLACLACLACLQQQQQQQQQ-170

Joint UAS Fleet, FY17Unbalanced Stealth

Predator Ground Control Station

Avionics specialists prepare a Global Hawk

MQ-9 takeoff

Page 18: Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow 1Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow. 2 Introduction Antecedents of a “Third” Offset Strategy Why Not “Business As Usual”? Enduring U.S

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Extended-Range Air Operations• U.S. has unmatched capability for highgh-h-tempoU.S. has unmatched

global ISR / strike.– Over seventy years of experience developing, building, maintaining,

and using heavy bombers in combat.– Aerial refueling is a key enabler for manned operations, and will have

an even more profound effect on unmanned operations.

•p

Bombers have the long g combat radius s to pp

o o enable rapid, global Bombers have the lresponse to short

he lrt-

ongg ombat radiucoohe lt-notice aggression

s diuson.

– Crew fatigue limits their ability to sustain long-range operations for extended periods.

•p

Current and planned joint air portfolio is heavily weighted Current and planned joint airtowards manned and short

t airrt-

portfolio is heavily weighted r airt-range fighter / attack aircraft.

Short RangeShort RangeUSAF/USNUSAF/USNUSAF/USN

Fighter/Attack

Long Rangeng RaB

g Ra-

ngang RaBBBBBBBBBBB-1B-

1BBBBBB 1BBBBBBBB-2

B-2222BBBBBBBBBB 22

BBBBBBBBBB-52

Joint Aviation Inventory, 2014 – 2023:Unbalanced Range

B-52 landing gear test

B-2 Spirit, KC-135 tanker

A B-1B Lancer drops cluster munitions

Joint Aviation Inventory, 2014 – 2023:Unbalanced Manned/Unmanned Mix

MannedMannedUSAF/USNUSAF/USNUSAF/USN

Fighter/AttackFighter/AttackFighter/AttackLong Range StrikeLong Range StrikeLong Range Strike

Manned ISR Aircraft

UnmannedUnmaMQ

nmaMQMQ-

nnednmaQQQQQQQQQ-1, MQ

edMQMQ-

dQQQQQQQQQQ-9, RQRQ-QQQQQQQQQ----4, MQMQ-QQQQQQQQ---4, MQMQ-QQQQQQQQ--8, UCLASS

Page 19: Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow 1Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow. 2 Introduction Antecedents of a “Third” Offset Strategy Why Not “Business As Usual”? Enduring U.S

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Low-Observable Air Operations

• U.S. has significant qualitative lead in design, manufacture, U.S. has significant qualitative and operation of LO aircraft. – Stealth aircraft employed in Desert Storm (1991), Kosovo (1999),

Afghanistan (2001), Iraq (2003), Libya (2011), and Syria (2014).

• Stealth enables precision attacks in n denied airspacece.• Current ntt and planned joint air portfolio is s heavily weighted Currennt

towards nd plt nan

nond pl

-anned joint air pa pl

stealthy aircraftoir p

.• FFF-FF 35 and FFF-FF 22 are more stealthy than fourthth-h generation FF- 5 and 353 FF- 2 are more stealt222

fighters but have the same thy than fourtthh- eneration gegealt

e disadvantages resulting from g te s but a e t e saffighters bfighfigh but have the sameut hut their short combat radius

ddemeee usus.

Nonon-nnnnn-------StealthyNoonn tealthytSUSAF/USNUSAF/USNUUSSAF/USNSAF/SAF

Fighter/Attack, igighterB

ghghterB-

//Attr/r/hterhterBBBBBBB-1, B

//AttB-

ackacktata/Att/AttBBBBBBB-52

Semim -mii---StealthymmmiF

mi-

ealtetetSF 35F-

553535FFFF---333FFF-22

StealthyStealtBealt

-hythealt

BBB-2

Joint Aviation Inventory, 2014 – 2023:Unbalanced Stealth

F-117 Nighthawk drops a guided bomb

B-2 Spirit

Night vision aerial refueling

Page 20: Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow 1Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow. 2 Introduction Antecedents of a “Third” Offset Strategy Why Not “Business As Usual”? Enduring U.S

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Undersea Warfare

• USN submarine force was victorious in WW2 and has USN submarine force was victorious in WW2 and haconducted constant SSN/SSBN patrols since 1958.– USN used TLAMs in combat many times since 1991.

• SSNs permit operations in A2/AD environments and are SSNs permit operations in difficult, costly, and time

s in meme-

A2/AD environments aAin ee-consuming to counter.

• Current and planned overall Navy force structure is Current and planned overall Navy force structure is weighted towards surface forces, not submarine forces.– In FY28, SSNs drop to 41 boats and SSGNs retire

• Undersea payload capacity in 2028 will be e 38% of 2014 capacity

– Fewer than 12 SSBNs from FY30 to FY42

SurfaceSurfaceCVNCVNCVN

CG/DDGCG/DDGCG/DDGFFG/LCSFFG/LCSFFG/LCS

Amphibious ShipsAmphibious Shipsmphibious ShCombat Logistics Ships

SubsurfaceubsurfacSSNSSNSSN

SSBN

Navy Force Structure, 2030

“Wet training” aboard SUBTRFAC

Dry dock bow repair

PCU Virginia (SSN 774)

Page 21: Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow 1Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow. 2 Introduction Antecedents of a “Third” Offset Strategy Why Not “Business As Usual”? Enduring U.S

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Complex Systems Engineering

• Military and defense industry have designed, built, and Military and defense industry have designed, buoperated very complex weapons systems and operated very coperated very carchitectures.

• To exploit this advantage, the U.S. should link To exploit this advantage, the U.S. should link heterogeneous, geographically distributed platforms into a heterogeneous, gheterogeneous, geogglobal surveillance

gegeogcece-

raphically distriraphically distriggeogeogee-strike network.

Page 22: Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow 1Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow. 2 Introduction Antecedents of a “Third” Offset Strategy Why Not “Business As Usual”? Enduring U.S

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Antecedents of a “Third” Offset StrategyWhy Not “Business As Usual”?Enduring U.S. AdvantagesImplementing a New Offset Strategy: The GSS ConceptConclusions

Outline

Page 23: Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow 1Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow. 2 Introduction Antecedents of a “Third” Offset Strategy Why Not “Business As Usual”? Enduring U.S

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The Joint Global Surveillance Strike (GSS) Network

• Leverage enduring advantages in the five capability areas to verage enduring advantages in the five capability areaevcreate a joint global surveillance strike (GSS) network.

• Attributes of the GSS:–– Balanced: Tailored attributes for different roles and environments–– Resilient: Less dependent on close-in bases, reduced sensitivity to air

defense threat, tolerant of disruption in space capability–– Responsive: Able to generate surveillance-strike presence within hours

of decision to do so–– Scalable: Can be expanded to influence events in multiple locations

around the world concurrently

• With “highgh-h-low” mix of elements, GSS network could be costst-With higghheffective in

ow mh- oolon both

mix o mh low

ix oww-

f elements, GSS netwoofx oww-medium and medium

twomm-

rk could be corwomm-high threat effective ineffective innn n othothbobobob hh

environments.

• LLeeLe

Page 24: Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow 1Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow. 2 Introduction Antecedents of a “Third” Offset Strategy Why Not “Business As Usual”? Enduring U.S

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Exploiting Advantages in Unmanned Operations

• Employ UAS to maintain persistent ISRSR-R-strike orbits and mploy UAS to maintain pershedge against loss of space

pers-

istent ISSRR- trike orbits and tssiersbased ISR, navigation, timing, and

communications• Develop p automated aerial refueling g for UAS:

– Refuelable UAS offer extended mission endurance with low life-cycle cost, and are an affordable way to provide scalable, persistent coverage over multiple areas at once.

• Rebalance UAS fleet et with acquisition of three new survivable, Rebalalong

balangng-

nce UAS fleeet wabalagg-range systems:

1. Stealthy HALE ISR UAS2. Stealthy, refuelable land-based UCAS3. Stealthy, refuelable sea-based UCAS

• Acquire UUVs and payload modules to o expand limited SSN Acquire Ucapacity

• EEE

Page 25: Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow 1Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow. 2 Introduction Antecedents of a “Third” Offset Strategy Why Not “Business As Usual”? Enduring U.S

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Exploiting Advantages in Long-Range / LO Air Operations

• Harness synergy between low passive radar signatures and advance electronic c c attack.

• Focus R&D on enhanced d d IR signature e management.• Future joint long-range ISR and strike fleet should be

increasingly unmanned and survivablelele.• D

g yDDevelop and field stealthy HALE UAS, stealthy landnd-d- and seaea-D velop and field stevbased UCAS, and

tealld std LRS

tealRS-

ealS-B

y HALE UASthyltalBB to sustain

S, stealthy lanUASn n U.S. advantage

nnde e in

nd seea-- naadd-n nnnn global, babas

lowasasww-

UCAS, andUCAS, andd d RRLRLRRSRSSS-BBB BBB o sustaino sustaintotod dsedsedsww-observable air operations.

•p

Missions to include:– Wide-area surveillance– Electronic attack– High-volume precision strike and HDBT defeat– Persistent surveillance-attack– Mining and ASuW

a

Page 26: Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow 1Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow. 2 Introduction Antecedents of a “Third” Offset Strategy Why Not “Business As Usual”? Enduring U.S

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Exploiting Advantages in Undersea Operations

• SSNs and SSGNs to provide covert ISR coverage and SOF support in peacetime, as well as ASW, W,W ASuWWWWW, counteree -rr--sensor, support in peaand counter

peaee -

cetime, as well as ASWW, Aapearr--land attacks in wartime.

• Navy should expand undersea strike capacity, including ability to conduct electronic attack, counteree -rrr--sensor, and ability to counter

to ee -

conduct electrocto rr--air operations.

• To mitigate decline in SSN/SSGN force structure:– Procure Virginia Payload Module– Field family of UUVs for littoral operations– Develop towed and seabed payload modules– Develop wider array of undersea

weapons

sup

Towed Payload Module

Virginia Payload Module

Upward falling Seabed payload modules

Page 27: Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow 1Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow. 2 Introduction Antecedents of a “Third” Offset Strategy Why Not “Business As Usual”? Enduring U.S

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Exploiting Advantages in Complex Systems Engineering

• GSS should link the nodes within a resilient and protected C3 architecture.

• Develop advanced battle management system to fuse and Develop advanced battle management system to fuse ancorrelate ISR data, as well as to allocate ISR and strike resources quickly and efficiently.

• Initially rely on legacy C3 paths and core GSS platforms, and Initially rely on legacy C3 paths and core GSS platforms, aover time, add more nodes and communications paths.

a

Page 28: Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow 1Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow. 2 Introduction Antecedents of a “Third” Offset Strategy Why Not “Business As Usual”? Enduring U.S

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Selected GSS Network Elements –Restore Balance Across Threat Spectrum

MannedUnmanned

Responsiveness

Threat Level

B-2

LRS-B

SSN

SSGN

B-1

B-52

Tankers

P-8AWACS

JSTARS

Army SOF

CG

DDG

CVN

F-35

F-22

Army A2/AD Networks

F-15

F-16 F-18

E-2D

LCS

MQ-X

UUV

Payload Modules

Global Hawk Triton

N-UCASRQ-170

MQ-1

MQ-9

MQ-8

Army / USMC Ground Forces

New HALEISR UAS

Page 29: Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow 1Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow. 2 Introduction Antecedents of a “Third” Offset Strategy Why Not “Business As Usual”? Enduring U.S

29

GSS Implementation Actions• What should we do to make GSS a reality?

– Accelerate development and potentially expand procurement of LRS-B

– Develop and field stealthy HALE UAS

– Develop and field stealthy, refuelable, carrier- and land-based UCAS

– Automated aerial refueling (especially for UAS/UCAS)

– Counter-space capability to deter attacks on US satellites

– GPS alternatives such as HALE UAS “pseudolites,” advanced IMUs, and miniaturized atomic clocks

• W–

Page 30: Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow 1Robert Martinage e – Senior Fellow. 2 Introduction Antecedents of a “Third” Offset Strategy Why Not “Business As Usual”? Enduring U.S

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GSS Implementation Actions, cont’d

• What else should we develop and field?– Multi-mission, long-endurance UUVs

– Undersea strike: Virginia Payload Module, seabed payload pods, towed payloads, improved TLAM, multi-mission missiles, sub-launched conventional ballistic missile

– Expanded undersea sensor networks

– Improved naval mines and long-range ASW weapons

– EM rail guns and directed energy weapons

– New counter-sensor weapons

– Expeditionary ground-based A2/AD, including air defense missiles, coastal defense, mines, UUVs

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Potential Funding Offsets

• Shed excess bases, rein in personnel costs.• Pursue burden sharing with allies• Refocus current programs (e.g., UCLASS, F/A/A-A-XX, Refoc

MQefoc

-us cufoc

X)• Restore balance:

–– Scalelel -e-back force structure and modernization programs – ScalS lee- ack force structure and modernization progrababoptimized for power projection in permissive (low

aograww-optimized for power projection ioptio immized for power projection imizmiz

medium threat) environments

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Antecedents of a “Third” Offset StrategyWhy Not “Business As Usual”?Enduring U.S. AdvantagesImplementing a New Offset Strategy: The GSS ConceptConclusions

Outline

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Restoring U.S. Global Power ProjectionWith a New Offset Strategy

• Adversaries are developing their own ISRSRSR-RR-strike networksks———with an Adversaries are developing theemphasis on missile systems

g themsms—

own ISSRR trike networktst ks with an weirhe————to challenge conventional U.S. power emphasis on

projection

• To “offset,” ” DoDD should leverage its “core competencies” in To offset, oDDoD hould levshunmanned systems, long

levngng-

erage its core velevgg--range and low

ore ww-

competencies in core ww--observable airpower, unmanned systems, lonngg ange and lowara ww bservable airobo

undersea warfare, and complex systems engineering

• Global Surveillancece-e-Strike (GSS) network with a “highgh-h-low” mix of Global Surveillanccee trike (GSS) network with a higStS ghh ow mix of oloelements could provide balanced, resilient, globally responsive, elements could provide balanced, rescalable power projection capacity

• If deterrence fails, GSS network could deny the aggressor’s war If deterrence fails, GSS network could deny the aggressor s war aims, inflict asymmetric punishment, and roll back his A2/AD aims, inflicnetwork

• GSS force could reach IOC in the midid-d-tooto-oo-late 2020s if focused R&D GSS force could reach IOC in the miidd totooo te 2020s alabegins now and the government stays the course

• AAAee

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Questions?