Robust Strategies forSustainable Energy Supply

Klaus S. LacknerColumbia UniversityNovember 2005

The Central Role of EnergyMineralsWaterFoodEnvironment

Not about limiting access to energylow cost, plentiful, and clean energy for all

Energy, Wealth, Economic GrowthEIA Data 2002

Big UncertaintyRobust strategies for uncertain development pathsScope of world-wide industrialization Will oil and gas run out? Coal as backstopWill nuclear energy play a role? More electricityWill solar energy get cheap? Hydrogen, electricityWill energy efficiency play out? Potential surpriseDecentralization vs. Concentration Greenhouse gasesThe role of the smaller sources?

IPCC Model Simulations of CO2 Emissions

Constant growthWith population growthClosing the gap1% energy intensity reduction 1.5% energy intensity reduction 2.0% energy intensity reduction

Chart1

111111

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4.95303242448.137257743515.66575321035.76310853663.49550202272.1201291478

Constant Growth 1.6%

Plus Population Growth to 10 billion

Closing the Gap at 2%

Energy intensity drop 1%/yr

Energy Intensity drop 1.5%/yr

Energy Intensity drop 2% per year

Year

Fractional Change

Growth in Emissions

Sheet1

20000110.1611111

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2012121.2116705171.47797950380.28407395841.34834729831.64469601511.4587145081.37376558831.2937637085

2013131.23121316951.51985522190.29686024461.38252549911.70664077611.49859346771.40428317941.3159080768

2014141.25107101941.56209637830.31005564571.41756235681.76997867351.53874553631.43471682851.3377211042

2015151.27124915031.60471419330.32366711031.45347225061.83473676241.5791725661.46506706191.3592064237

2016161.29175272791.6477199770.33770157331.4902696021.90094198461.61987590541.49533392741.3803671917

2017171.31258700131.69112513150.35216595781.52796887641.96862117671.6608564241.52551702811.4012061303

2018181.33375730411.73494115470.36706717531.56658458692.0378010781.70211453721.55561555651.4217255694

2019191.35526905611.7791796430.38241212791.60613129692.10850833981.74365023061.58562832681.4419274846

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2084843.83435027256.23513906742.68752235896.976814386611.34518363124.89783516383.21810701842.1144469822

2085853.89619330186.34088194112.7496245667.117759419611.58383803594.95110534583.23688307812.1161763545

2086863.95903377786.4482413252.81278540117.261064075811.82639403045.00448152423.25546074592.1177068227

2087874.02288778826.55724482022.87701956157.406762811512.07290872575.05796381463.27384126452.1190417761

2088884.08777167976.66792044712.94234200967.55489068112.32344024935.11155242853.29202593232.1201845995

2089894.15370206316.78029665193.00876797767.705483347312.57804776235.1652476723.31001609992.1211386709

2090904.2206958176.89440231423.07631297227.85857709212.83679147675.21904994283.32781316832.1219073594

2091914.2887700927.01026675463.14499277958.014208826613.0997326735.27295972933.34541858532.1224940234

2092924.35794231567.12791974213.21482346998.172416102613.36693371775.32697760743.36283384352.122902008

2093934.42823019627.24739150153.28582140298.333237122813.63845808095.38110423963.38006047762.1231346436

2094944.4996517287.36871272173.35800323228.496710751813.91437035455.4353403723.39710006142.1231952439

2095954.57222519517.49191456323.43138591058.662876527414.19473627045.48968683293.41395420612.1230871042

2096964.64596917697.6170286663.50598669468.831774671414.47962271855.54414453053.43062455732.1228134996

2097974.72090255227.74408715833.58182315089.003446101314.76909776545.59871445093.44711279292.1223776835

2098984.79704450437.87312266413.65891315949.177932441815.06323067315.65339765623.4634206212.1217828866

2099994.8744145268.0041683123.73727492069.355276035715.3620919185.70819528213.47954977712.1210323146

21001004.95303242448.13725774353.8169269599.535519956415.66575321035.76310853663.49550202272.1201291478

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Todays Energy InfrastructureAll fossil energyplus a little hydro and nuclear energyplus a very little renewable energy

Energy is not running outPlenty of fossil carbonPlenty of nuclear energyPlenty of solar energy

Other options are niche player

Resource EstimatesH.H. Rogner, 1997

Carbon as Low Cost EnergyRogner 1997Lifting Cost

Fossil Fuels5000 Gigatons of cheap fuelUbiquitous, current consumption is 6Gt/yr85% of all commercial energyCoal, oil, gas, tar etc. are fungibleSASOL: gasoline from coal at $45/bblTarsands: Synthetic crude at less $20/bbl

Fungibility of SourcesAll hydrocarbons are interchangeableGasification, Fischer Tropsch ReactionsElectricity can make all carriersBut at a price need cheap electricityHeat can be turned into electricityLow efficiency but routinely doneElectricity can pump heatEfficient but needs cheap electricity

Prediction is difficult

Fossil FuelsEnergy in 2100 need not be more expensive than todayEnvironment Rather Than Resource LimitCarbon Capture and Storage - Untested Technology

21st Centurys Emissions???Atmo-sphere2000OceanPlantsCoalOil, Gas, Tars & ShalesMethane Hydrates pH < 0.339,000 Gt50,000Gt???Soil & Detritus1800constantScales of Potential Carbon SinksCarbon ResourcesCarbon Sources and Sinks

180ppmincrease inthe air30% ofthe Oceanacidified30% increase inSoil Carbon

50%increaseinbiomass

CO2 emissions need to stopLarge Reductions RequiredIndependent of CO2 level at stabilizationTime urgency is high up to ~800ppmAt 2 GtC per year, the per capita allowance of 10 billion people will be 3% of actual per capita emission in the United States

NON-SOLUTIONSEnergy efficiency improvementsEnergy reductionsGrowing TreesHydrogen10 billion people reducing world emission to a third of todays would have a per capita emission allowance of 3% of that in the US today

Todays Technology Fails To Deliver Sufficient Energy for 10 billion at US per capita ratesEnvironmental ProblemsPollution, CO2Oil and Gas ShortagesConcentration in the Middle EastHow much time do we have to make the change?

The hydrogen economy cannot run on electricityThere are no hydrogen wellsTar, coal, shale and biomass could support a hydrogen economy.Wind, photovoltaics and nuclear energy cannot.

A Triad of Large Scale Optionsbacked by a multitude of opportunitiesSolarCost reduction and mass-manufactureNuclearCost, waste, safety and securityFossil EnergyZero emission, carbon storage and interconvertibilityMarkets will drive efficiency, conservation and alternative energy

Connecting Sources to CarriersCarriers to ConsumersRefining

CarbonBioGasolineDieselCoalShaleTarOilNaturalGasJet FuelHeatElectricityEthanolMethanolDMEHydrogenSynthesisGasNuclearWind,HydroGeoSolarChemicals

Dividing The Fossil Carbon Pie900 Gt Ctotal550 ppmPast10yr

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Removing the Carbon Constraint5000 Gt CtotalPast

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Net Zero Carbon EconomyCapture of distributed emissions

Underground InjectionstatoilEnhanced Oil RecoveryDeep Coal Bed MethaneSaline AquifersStorage TimeSafetyCost

VOLUME

Rockville QuarryMg3Si2O5(OH)4 + 3CO2(g) 3MgCO3 + 2SiO2 +2H2O(l)+63kJ/mol CO2Backstop & Lid on Liability

Magnesium resources that far exceed world fossil fuel supplies

Peridotite and Serpentinite Ore Bodies

_941389122.bin

Capture at the plantFlue Gas Scrubbing (Amine Scrubbers)Oxygen Blown CombustionIntegrated Gasifier Combined Cycle with Carbon CaptureZero Emission Plants

Expand into steel making, cement production, boilers

CO2 N2

H2OSOx, NOx andother PollutantsCarbon AirZero Emission PrincipleSolid WastePower Plant

Carbon makes a better fuel cellC + O2 CO2no change in mole volumeentropy stays constantG = H

2H2 + O2 2H2Olarge reduction in mole volumeentropy decreases in reactantsmade up by heat transfer to surroundings G < H

The Conventional Power PlantHeatHeatElectricPowerCarbon FuelTurbineCarnot Limited

The Standard Fuel CellHeatElectricPowerChemical Conversion with small Heat lossNo heat returnCarbon FuelEnthalpy Limited

The Zero Emission Fuel CellHeat ReturnHeatElectricPowerMinimize Free Energy LossRaise Enthalpy(endothermic gasification)Carbon FuelFuel Cell ConversionFree energy limited

Gasification CyclesC + CO2 2COC + H2O CO + H2C + 2H2 CH4(CH4 + 2H2O CO2 + 4H2)C + O2 CO2

Boudouard Reaction

Steam Reforming

Boudouard Reaction

Hydrogenation

Decarbonizing Energy FuelsHydrogen EconomyHeating and transportation

Extraction of CO2 from AirBiomassChemical Extraction

Air Extraction can compensate for CO2 emissions anywhereArt Courtesy Stonehaven CCS, Montreal2NaOH + CO2 Na2CO3

Wind area that carries 22 tons of CO2 per yearWind area that carries 10 kW0.2 m 2for CO280 m 2for Wind EnergyHow much wind? (6m/sec)50 cents/ton of CO2 for contacting

EnviroMissions Tower

ProcessReactionsCapture DeviceTrona ProcessLimestone Precipitate DryerFluidized BedHydroxylation ReactorMembrane Device(1)(2)(3)(6)(5)(4)Membrane(1) 2NaOH + CO2 Na2CO3 + H2OHo = - 171.8 kJ/mol(2) Na2CO3 + Ca(OH)2 2NaOH + CaCO3Ho = 57.1 kJ/mol(3) CaCO3 CaO + CO2 Ho = 179.2 kJ/mol(4) CaO + H2O Ca(OH)2 Ho = - 64.5 kJ/mol(6) H2O (l) H2O (g) Ho = 41. kJ/mol(5) CH4 + 2O2 CO2 + 2H2O Ho = -890.5 kJ/molSource: Frank ZemanCO2AirDepleted Air

Hydrogen or Air Extraction Coal,Gas Fossil Fuel OilHydrogenGasolineConsumptionConsumptionDistributionDistributionCO2 TransportAir ExtractionCO2 Disposal

Hydrogen or Air Extraction Coal,Gas Fossil Fuel OilHydrogenGasolineConsumptionConsumptionDistributionDistributionCO2 TransportAir ExtractionCO2 Disposal Cost comparisons

EnergySourceEnergyConsumerH2OH2OO2O2Materially Closed Energy Cycles

Roles of Different Energy CarriersElectricity Carbon FuelsHydrogenCarsplanesheating

Certified Carbon AccountingcertificatescertificationPublic Institutionsand GovernmentCarbon BoardguidancePermits & Credits

If consumption were held constant, the amount of carbon consumed in the next century would be around 600 Gigatons. The brick labeled constant represents that amount. Unrestricted growth could easily multiply that number by a factor of four. The equivalent multiplier between the rate of emission in 1900 and the actual emissions over the 20th century has been between five and six.Even without further growth, carbon emissions would exceed the preindustrial carbon content of the atmosphere or all the biomass in the world. (The column labeled plants). Even the ocean could not take up the expected output of carbon without substantially changing its pH. This would have drastic environmental impacts.The total carbon in the ocean stored as carbonate ions is roughly 1800 Gt, cutting this number in half would change the pH by more than 0.3 through the entire ocean volume.On the other side of the ledger, there is plenty of carbon to feed the next centurys demand. Taking these two observations together, it is clear that carbon dioxide emissions will have to be eliminated. The various circles are drawn to scaleThe background is not large enough to capture all the methane hydratesThe yellow circle represents a fairly conservative estimate of how much hydrocarbons should be out there. Note this is much more than proven reserves. On the other hand, Alaska alone claims to have roughly have of this amount in coal, oil and gas.The red area represents potential output of carbon over the coming century. The inner circle labeled 1x represents current emission rates for 100 years. Each ring adds an equal amount. (Note the area is drown to scale consequently the radius increase is getting smaller).Increasing the output 5fold would be in keeping with the experience of the last century, but exceeds conventional estimates for the next 100 yearsThe little bubbles represent potential sinks. 180 ppm added to the air would roughly double pre-industrial CO2. Increasing biomass by 50% or soil carbon WORLDWIDE by 30% appears challenging. Injection 30% of the ocean with excess CO2 lowering the pH by 0.3 (doubling the H+ concentration) is also a major practical challenge)THIS GRAPH suggests that something serious needs to be done.For fossil carbon to remain an important energy resource, three new technologies need to be developed.Capture of carbon dioxide at a large scale concentrated source, e.g. a plant that produces hydrogen or electricity.Disposal of carbon dioxide. Capture of carbon dioxide from small and distributed sources like vehicles.Mineral resources to form solid carbonates exist in quantities that are far larger than the carbon resources the world has. For example magnesium silicates that could be used to neutralize carbonic acid exist in vast quantities. Individual mining sites are often measured in tens of Gigatons.Wind carries carbon dioxide and wind carries kinetic energy that is harnessed in wind energy farms. To obtain a comparison, we measure the cross section in the wind through which the per capita CO2 emission flows, and we measure the cross section through which the per capita energy consumption flows The carbon dioxide flux by this measure is 400 times more concentrated.If air capture can be implemented it provides a smooth path from fossil fuels without carbon management, over fossil fuels with carbon management to a future renewable energy economy that is based on liquid hydrocarbons as energy carriers, but that is materially closed just as much as the hydrogen economy is.As stated before the cost comparison is not against other routes of producing carbon dioxide (because they would not qualify as carbon recycle) but as a competitor to the hydrogen economy. Thus it is the energy penalty and cost of the carbon dioxide capture that must be compared to the cost of transporting and storing hydrogen.

For carbon dioxide emissions to be reduced by the methods discussed here, an economic incentive for sequestration must be generated. It is important that regulations consider active capture of carbon dioxide from the air as one of the options of addressing the climate change problem.

A system where the extractive industry will have to buy certificates of sequestrations or in lieu of these permits issued by a semi-independent carbon board, is best suited to let a new industry of carbon dioxide sequestration start up. Ultimately permits are essentially phased out in favor of certificates of sequestration which represent true reductions of carbon in the environment.

At $30 per ton of CO2 the carbon sequestration industry may grow into a $600 billion per year enterprise.