rockin’ the rockies...pre 2014 –need more than the bakken, double down in the bakken, find a new...

Rockin’ the RockiesT R I S H A C U R T I S

P E T R O N E R D S , P R E S I D E N T A N D C O - F O U N D E R

T R I S H A @ P E T R O N E R D S . C O M

D U G D E N V E R

M AY 1 5 , 2 0 1 9

1PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645

What is a PetroNerd?

PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645 2

© PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645 3

About PetroNerds and Our Services• Boutique energy analytics and advisory firm based in

Denver, CO

• Personalized, data-driven advisory services

• Help our clients understand how the oil market impacts

their business

• Provide data and actionable insights needed, not reports

and projections that are never read

• HedgeAware – Interactive, cloud-based solution for

quickly assessing the hedging strategies and past

performance of U.S. oil and gas producers on a single,

easy to use platform

Forthcoming Report on Productivity

© PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645 4

http://www.petronerds.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/OIES-PetroNerds-Completion-Design-and-Productivity-2017.pdf

“Completion Design Changes and the Impact of US Shale Well Productivity”

http://www.petronerds.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/OIES-PetroNerds-Completion-Design-and-Productivity-2017.pdf

Oil Market


Oil Prices


Supply, Supply, Supply


Source: EIA

Saudi 9.8 mbd (from 11.1 plus mbd) Russia 11.5 mbd (from 11.7 mbd) US 11.9 mbd

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Jan

-06

No

v-0

6

Sep

-07

Jul-

08

May

-09

Mar

-10

Jan

-11

No

v-1

1

Sep

-12

Jul-

13

May

-14

Mar

-15

Jan

-16

No

v-1

6

Sep

-17

Jul-

18

Tho

usa

nd

Bar

rels

Per

Day

U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil

IEA Q4 2018 Oil Supply and Demand


$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

1/2/2015 1/2/2016 1/2/2017 1/2/2018

$ P

er B

arre

l

Europe Brent Spot Price FOB $/bbl Cushing OK WTI Spot Price FOB $/bbl

Source: EIA

Shale Model Inspiring Broader Changes


• Short-term, low cost, growth oriented

• Knowledge, Determination, Brute Force

• Nimble Service Sector

• Efficiency Gains

• Rapidly changing and evolving to increased understanding of the rocks

US Independents

• Investing in US Shale

• Exxon, Chevron, ConocoPhillips

• BP and other interested in moves by the majors in US shale – BP opening Denver office and purchased BHP’s shale assets.

• US shale now viewed as a positive, and necessary, diverse asset to any portfolio

Majors• Lessons learned from shale

• Shale’s short cycle, low cost, quick return nature is driving global projects to compete for cash – “break-even” has spread far beyond shale

• Operators are now comparing their global assets against US shale

• Operators now invest differently – Near term growth with less risk

Global Shifts

Source: PetroNerds

But Some Still Focused on Investment Shortfalls


Shale Market Dynamics


Generalist Investor has Left the Oil Sector -

Activists

Opportunity for Consolidation - What about PE and Small

Players?

Investor Pressure -Shareholder

Returns/Positive Free Cash Flow

BIG Shale Demand –Majors Pushing Permian

and Short Cycle

Bifurcation between Large Caps and Small/Mid Caps

Well Spacing/Inventory –

ROR vs. NPV

Depend on Size and Market Cap

PDC

EOG vs. PXD

It is about size – so roll up the small players

Share price pressure positive from M&A standpoint

Energy’s Weighting in the S&P 500 is Now Just 5 Percent


Information Technology

20%

Health Care16%

Financials14%

Consumer Discretionary

10%

Communications Services

10%

Industrials9%

Consumer Staples

7%

Energy5%

Utilities3%

Real Estate3%

Materials 3%

Source: Bloomberg, September 21, 2018

Source: The Balance, November 2018

Considering Market Pressure When Analyzing the Rockies

Rockies

Lots of Small and Mid Cap PlayersStrong Production Base, but Pipeline

Constraints, Regulatory Risk, and Unproven

S&P 500 Shrinkage – Loss of Generalist Investor

Permian Focus – Attention Challenge For the Rockies

Small and Mid Cap Pressure

Market Pressure

Muted Oil Prices Investor Pressure – Returns


Weight on the Rockies


S&P 500

CVXWTI FANG

EOGPXD

WLL

XOG

Evolution of Investor PressurePre 2014 – Need More than the Bakken, Double Down in the Bakken, Find a New Bakken

2014 Oil Price Correction – Pump and Produce, Lots of Sand and Lots of Water, High IPs, Give me Cash Flow

2015 to 2016 – PERMANIA, Prices are Sub $60 but Buy Anything and Everything, Dry Powder, No Production, at Any Cost!

- strict drilling and leasing requirements

2017 – Start Focusing on Cash Flow!

2018 – Investor pressure on returns continues to build, oil prices move up, but stock prices are muted, get free cash flow positive or at the very least free cash flow neutral

-want inventory and scale, but we might penalize if you do this

2019 – Oil went to $44 on Christmas eve! Show me that free cash flow, production growth, inventory, mergers, dividends, share buybacks, and all money returned shareholders above $50

-Favoring majors and short cycle


Weighing the Rockies

Positives Negatives


Last Quarter – Even EOG….


EOG – WTI and S&P


EOG CAPEX, Free Cash Flow, and Production


Source: HedgeAware, PetroNerds

EOG Completed Well Costs


2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q3 2018 2018 YearEnd Target

2018 YearEnd

2019 YearEnd Target

$15.4

$9.8

$8.5 $7.7 $7.5 $7.4 $7.5 $7.2 $7.2

$6 $6.1 $5.7 $4.7 $4.5 $4.4 $4.3 $4.6 $4.3

$9.8 $10 $8.8

$7.2

$5.1 $4.8 $4.6 $4.6

$ M

illio

ns

Delware Basin Wolfcamp (normalized to 7,000 ft lateral) Eagle Ford (normalized to 5,300 ft lateral) Bakken (normalized to 8,400 ft lateral)

Source: PetroNerds, EOG Investor Presentations

Chevron and Exxon – Permian Growth Forecasts – Favoring Short Cycle


Source: Chevron Investor Day Presentation, March 5, 2019 Source: ExxonMobil Investor Day Presentation, March 6, 2019

Exxon and Chevron both favoring short-cycle, stable growth. Both expect to grow their Permian Basin production to nearly 1 million boed each by 2024.

Occidental and Anadarko


Anadarko Spending $1.3 Billion in the DJ in 2019


Source: Bank of America 2018 Global Energy Conference, November 15, 2018


Are well spacing issues really going to kill the boom?

High Proppant Volumes

High Fluid Volumes

And Tight Spacing

Recipe for Poor Well

Performance?

Changes in Inventory –Changes in Spacing – EVOLVING


Source: Laredo, May Q1 2019 Earnings Source: Parsley Energy, May 2019, Q1 2019 Earnings

Chesapeake’s Tweaks on Spacing/Completions


EOG vs. PXD on Well Spacing


Schlumberger Has Concerns, Again….the well-established market consensus that the Permian can continue to provide 1.5 million barrels per day of annual production growth for the foreseeable future is starting to be called into question. ….we believe the main challenge in the Permian going forward is more likely to be reservoir and well performance as the rate of infield drilling continues to accelerate.

At present, our industry has yet to understand how reservoir conditions and well productivity change as we continue to pump billions of gallons of water and billions of pounds of sand into the ground each year.

In the Permian, the percentage of child wells in the Midland Wolfcamp basin has just reached 50% and we are already starting to see a similar reduction in unit well productivity to that already seen in the Eagle Ford suggesting that the Permian growth potential could be lower than earlier expected.

Schlumberger Q3 2018 Earnings Call, Paal Kibsgaard

Chase Mulvehill

….you talked about U.S. shale production and the challenges around that that you are starting to see. These challenges – is this something that can be solved through technology or is this just reservoir challenges that we have to deal with?

Paal Kibsgaard

No. I think it can absolutely be solved through technology….it requires a bit more of a reservoir focus on how the wells are drilled, how the wells are fracked, and we need a little bit more data to make sure that we do the right things here. But the measurements are available, the analysis and interpretation of the measurements are available and the remedies that we need to do to the frac fluids are also available. It’s just a matter of adopting these technologies. We have them all ready to go.


Measuring Performance on Proppant Volumes Pumped….?


Source: Schlumberger Investor Presentation, September 2018

Completion Design Modifications Continue


Source: PetroNerdsPre 2014 2018

Production andProductivity


Shale Play Type Curves


-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1 3 5 7 9 11131517192123252729313335373941434547

BA

RR

ELS

PER

DA

Y

MONTHS

Type Curve

2014 Type Curve 2015 Type Curve 2016 Type Curve

2017 Type Curve 2018 Type Curve 2019 Type Curve

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46

BA

RR

ELS

MONTHS

Cumulative Barrels

2014 Cum Barrels 2015 Cum Barrels 2016 Cum Barrels

2017 Cum Barrels 2018 Cum Barrels 2019 Cum Barrels

Oil Price Assumption

Cumulative Production at 12 Months = 134,000 barrels x $/Barrel

Cumulative Production at 24 Months = 170,000 x $/Barrel

$40 $5,353,745 $6,793,608 $50 $6,692,181 $8,492,009

$60 $8,030,617 $10,190,411

$65 $8,699,836 $11,039,612 $70 $9,369,054 $11,888,813 $75 $10,038,272 $12,738,014

Permian, DJ, Williston, Powder, and Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast Basins

Is Productivity Improving When Normalized for Lateral Length? In Most Cases, Yes.


Source: PetroNerds, DrillingInfo. Data points are quarterly averages.

Infrastructure constraints, pent up productivity

US Shale Oil Play Production by Basin


-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

1/1

/20

00

1/1

/20

01

1/1

/20

02

1/1

/20

03

1/1

/20

04

1/1

/20

05

1/1

/20

06

1/1

/20

07

1/1

/20

08

1/1

/20

09

1/1

/20

10

1/1

/20

11

1/1

/20

12

1/1

/20

13

1/1

/20

14

1/1

/20

15

1/1

/20

16

1/1

/20

17

1/1

/20

18

1/1

/20

19

Bar

rels

Per

Day

Shale Play Production

Permian Denver Julesburg Powder River

Williston Anadarko Eagle Ford Reservoir

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,0001

/1/2

00

0

1/1

/20

01

1/1

/20

02

1/1

/20

03

1/1

/20

04

1/1

/20

05

1/1

/20

06

1/1

/20

07

1/1

/20

08

1/1

/20

09

1/1

/20

10

1/1

/20

11

1/1

/20

12

1/1

/20

13

1/1

/20

14

1/1

/20

15

1/1

/20

16

1/1

/20

17

1/1

/20

18

1/1

/20

19

Bar

rels

Per

Day

Shale Play Production

Permian Denver Julesburg Powder River

Williston Anadarko Eagle Ford Reservoir

Permian – 3.9 mbdWilliston – 1.4 mbdEagle Ford – 1.2 mbdDJ – 516,000 bdAnadarko – 380,000 bdPowder – 142,000 bd

Source: PetroNerds, DrillingInfo

Williston – Continued Growth


Powder – Turner Focus, Future Niobrara


$270 to $300 Million CAPEX

40 Net Completions (double that of Bakken)

$505 to $525Million CAPEX

Source: Devon, Chesapeake, EOG, Q1 2019 Earnings

DJ Basin – “Well Positioned”


Source: Extraction, Q1 2019 Earnings

1. Q1 call – understand regulatory environment2. Low, repeatable well cost

Williston Basin Type Curve


-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48

BA

RR

ELS

PER

DA

Y

MONTHS

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Williston Basin Productivity



DJ Basin Type Curve


-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48

BA

RR

ELS

PER

DA

Y

MONTHS

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

DJ Basin Productivity



Permian Basin Well Productivity



-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48

BA

RR

ELS

PER

DA

Y

MONTHS

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Permian Basin Productivity



rockin’ the rockies...pre 2014 –need more than the bakken, double down in the bakken, find a new...

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