rohit talwar aviation futures - atag conference - april 29th 2014

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Aviation Futures - Driving Forces, Global Challenges and Potential Disruptions Rohit Talwar - CEO Fast Future ATAG Global Sustainable Aviation Summit Geneva April 29 th 2014 [email protected] www.fastfuture.com

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Page 1: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Aviation Futures - Driving Forces, Global

Challenges and Potential Disruptions

Rohit Talwar - CEO – Fast Future

ATAG Global Sustainable Aviation Summit

Geneva – April 29th 2014

[email protected] www.fastfuture.com

Page 2: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Contents

• Presentation p. 3

• About Fast Future p. 54

• Image Sources p. 63

• Background Notes p. 68

Page 3: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Business-Wide Forces

Shorter,

faster

business

cycles

Talent

shortages

Disruptive

innovation

Rapid

spread of

science and

technology

advances

Page 4: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Can we Change our DNA?

Play by the

Rules of the

Game

Create a

New Game

Page 5: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014
Page 6: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Our Research suggests airports need to see themselves an

as ecosystem - An integrated portfolio of models

Conceptual

Model

Infrastructure

Model

Revenue

Model

Customer

Engagement

Model

Service

Delivery

Model

Financing

Model

Page 7: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

‘Future Proofed’ Organisations

Work on 3 Horizons in Parallel

1-12 Months

Operational

Excellence

4-10 Years

Creating the

Future

1-3 Years

Drive for

Innovation

Efficiency, Growth

Page 8: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

The Future is Being Created Now...

Page 9: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Economic and Political Uncertainty

and Turbulence are the ‘New Normal’

Page 10: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Continued Global Shifts Of

Influence, Wealth and

Power to Emerging Markets

Page 11: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Socio-Demographic Shifts are

Reshaping Society

Free education is a game changer

Page 12: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Sustainability Issues Will Play a

Bigger Role in Decision Making

Page 13: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014
Page 14: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Urban Futures – Chaordic Nightmare...

Page 15: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

...or Resource-Efficient Utopia

Page 16: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014
Page 17: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Citizens Have an Expanded Role e.g.

Crowd Funded Bridge - Rotterdam

Page 18: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Automation is Accelerating…

....and eliminating jobs

Page 19: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014
Page 20: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Disruptive Innovation is the Goal

e.g. Qualcomm $10M Tricorder X-Prize

Page 21: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Core TechnologiesUsed by Pioneers Now Pioneered by 2015 Pioneered by 2025

Personal Technology

Mobile phones

3G / 4G smartphones

Augmented reality

Gesture recognition

Intelligent software assistants

Mind control headsets

3D displays (Glasses free)

Intelligent interfaces

Flexible screens

Digital currency

5G phones

Biologically embedded electronics

Eyewear embedded screens

Intelligent brain-computer interfaces

Streamlining the Passenger Journey

Biometrics –voice / facial / handprint

recognition

Quick-response (QR) codes

RFID

Interactive displays

Near field communications (NFC)

Temporary airports

Biometric signature – heartbeat pattern

Body language recognition

Robotics and automated services

Virtual airports

NFC integrated into all travel documents

and passports

Use of human genomic profiles

Enhancing the Passenger Experience

Social media

Passenger-polling systems

Hybrid platforms (i.e. Google Wave)

Interactive surfaces

Virtual worlds

Vertical farming (basic)

Next generation cinematic experiences:

6D and beyond

Real-time language translation

Reality mining

Wearable displays

Immersive web

3D printing

Biomimetic Design

Haptics technology

Touchable holograms

Vertical farming (advanced)

Information and Communications Technology (ICT) Infrastructure

Wireless broadband

Cloud computing

Telepresence

Big Data

Machine learning

Ambient / Embedded intelligence – the

‘Internet of Things’

Grid computing

MANETS (Mobile Ad-hoc NETworks)

Swarm intelligence

Intelligent web

Semantic web

Machine vision

Optical computers

Collective intelligence

Page 22: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Our Technologies are Evolving From

the Desktop...

Page 23: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

...to Portable and Mobile ...

Page 24: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

...to Wearable...

Page 25: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

...to Embedded...

Page 26: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

... to Grown and Grafted...

Page 27: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

…and totally Connected via

‘The Internet of Everything’

“What happens when the smartest thing in the room is the room itself?”

Madeleine Albright

Page 28: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

An Immersive Multi-Sensory Internet

is Emerging

Page 29: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Speech / gesture / image recognition, integrated analytics, knowledge management, image / video / voice mining, client self-service, intelligent documents, expertise systems, collaboration, secure

email, virtual assistants, intelligent agents and collective intelligence

Artificial Intelligence is Going

Mainstream

Page 30: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Collective and Collaborative

Page 31: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Data:

Death or

Glory

Page 32: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

‘Magic’ and Science are Blurring

Mapping and

Uploading the

Human Brain

Cognitive,

Genetic,

Physical and

Electronic

Enhancement of

the Human Body

The biological era is emerging

Page 33: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

The Biological Era is Here

Page 34: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Science is Opening up New Horizons

Page 35: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

‘Big Science’ is the Battleground

Page 36: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

New Ideas are Reshaping Industries

Page 37: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Rapid Execution e.g. Superfast Construction

Ark Hotel - Dongting Lake - China

Page 38: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Whole System Change for Driverless

Page 39: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Embracing New Paradigms –

e.g. Hyperloop

Page 40: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Virtual Collaboration

Novel and Adaptive Thinking Social Intelligence

Trans Disciplinarity

New Media Literacy

Computational Thinking

Design MindsetCross Cultural Competency

Sense MakingCognitive Load Management

Page 41: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Assets: ‘Usership’ vs. Ownership

Page 42: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Innovation: e.g. Kickstarter.com

Page 43: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Revenue: E.g. Auctions

£3088 £8791.50 £81

Page 44: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

In-Flight Upgrade Auctions

Page 45: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Pay by the Pound

Page 46: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Menu PricingEconomy, Classic, Classic Plus

Refunds, Flexibility, Seat Assignment,

Baggage, IFE, FFP Credit, Food and Beverage

Page 47: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

From Classes and Segments to

Choices on the Service Spectrum• Experience

• Service

• Seat

• Food and Beverages

• Boarding

• Entertainment

• Language

• FFP Miles

• Luggage

• Lounge

• Offers

• Transport

• +++

Page 48: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

‘Agony and Ecstasy’ Based Search

Page 49: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Flight Personalisation –

SeatExpert / SeatGuru

Page 50: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Reverse Auction - Back Bid

Page 51: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Transparency and Price Guarantees

Page 52: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Management -

Tackling Complexity

• Customer Interface

• Process

• Organisation

• Information /

Systems

• Regulatory

• Human

Page 53: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Conclusions –

Total Sustainability

• Foresight / Curiosity

• Sense making

• Accelerated learning

• Tolerance of

uncertainty

• Scenario thinking

• Coping with

complexity

• Networking

Page 54: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

About Fast Future

Page 55: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Fast Future –

Core Services

• Live Events - Speeches, briefings and workshops for executive management

and boards of governments, investment funds, development agencies ,

companies, airlines, airports, hotels, venues, CVB’s and associations

• Future Insights - Customised research on emerging trends, future scenarios,

technologies and new markets

• Immersion - ‘Deep dives’ on future trends, market developments, emerging

issues and technology advances

• Strategy - Development of strategies and business plans

• Innovation - Creation of business models and innovation plans

• Engagement - Consultancy and workshop facilitation

Page 56: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Fast Future • Research, consulting, speaking, leadership

• 5-20 year horizon - focus on ideas, developments, people,

trends and forces shaping the future

• Clients

– ING, ABN Amro, Laing O’Rourke

– Marks and Spencer

– Airports - Aeroports de Paris / Schiphol Group

– Vancouver Airport Services

– Industry Associations – ICCA, ASAE, PCMA, MPI

– Corporates - GE, Nokia, Pepsi, IBM, Intel, Orange,

O2, Siemens, Samsung, GSK, SAPE&Y, KPMG,

Amadeus, Sabre, Travelport, Travelex, ING,

Santander, Barclays, Citibank, DeutscheBank

– Governments - Dubai, Finland, Nigeria, Singapore,

UK, US

– Convention Bureaus – Seoul, Sydney, London, San

Francisco, Toronto, Abu Dhabi, Durban, Athens,

Slovenia, Copenhagen

– Convention Centres – Melbourne,

Adelaide, Qatar, QEIICC

– Hotels - Accor Group, Preferred,

– Intercontinental

– PCO’s - Congrex, Kenes

Page 57: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Our ServicesBespoke research; Identification & Analysis of Future Trends, Drivers & Shocks

Accelerated Scenario Planning, Timelining & Future Mapping

Identification of Opportunities for Innovation and Strategic InvestmentStrategy Creation &

Development of Implementation Roadmaps

Design & Facilitation of Innovation, Incubation & Venturing Programmes

Expert Consultations & Futures Think Tanks

Personal Futuring for Leaders and Leadership Teams

Public Speaking, In-Company Briefings, Seminars and Workshops

Page 58: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Example Projects• Public and private client research e.g. :

– Reinventing the Airport Ecosystem

– Development of Market Scenarios, emerging trends and strategies for key clients

– Government and OECD Scenario Projects – e.g. Migration 2030, Future of Narcotics, Chemical Sector, Family 2030

– Scenarios for the global economy for 2030 and the implications for migration

– Designing Your Future (Published August 2008) – book written for the American Society of Association Executives & The

Center for Association Leadership

– Global Economies – e.g. The Future of China – the Path to 2020

– The Shape of Jobs to Come – Emerging Science and Technology Sectors and Careers

– Winning in India and China

– The Future of Human Resources

– Exploiting the Future Potential of Social Media in UK Small to Medium Enterprises

– Convention 2020 – the Future of Business Events

– Future Convention Cities Initiative – Maximising Long-term Economic Impact of Events

– One Step Beyond – Future trends and challenges for the events industry

– Hotels 2020: Beyond Segmentation – Future Hotel Strategies

– The Future of Travel and Tourism in the Middle East – a Vision to 2020

– Future of Travel and Tourism Investment in Saudi Arabia

Page 59: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Hotels 2020 – Objectives

• Identify key drivers of change for

the globally branded hotel sector

over the next decade

• Examine the implications for:

Hotel strategy

Brand portfolio

Business models

Customer targeting

Innovation

Page 60: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

• Global strategic foresight study to help the meetings industry prepare for

the decade ahead - Industry-wide sponsors

• Multiple outputs Nov 2009 – December 2011

• Current studies on future strategies for venues and destinations

Convention 2020

Page 61: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Rohit Talwar• Global futurist and founder of Fast Future Research.

• Award winning speaker on future insights and strategic

innovation – addressing leadership audiences in 40 countries on

5 continents

• Author of Designing Your Future

• Profiled by UK’s Independent Newspaper as one of the Top 10

Global Future Thinkers

• Led futures research, scenario planning and strategic

consultancy projects for clients in telecommunications,

technology, pharmaceuticals, banking, travel and tourism,

environment, food and government sectors

• Clients include 3M, BBC, BT, BAe, Bayer, Chloride, DTC De

Beers, DHL, EADS, Electrolux, E&Y, GE, Hoover, Hyundai, IBM,

ING, Intel, KPMG, M&S, Nakheel, Nokia, Nomura, Novartis,

OECD, Orange, Panasonic, Pfizer, PwC, Samsung, Shell,

Siemens, Symbian, Yell , numerous international associations

and governments agencies in the US, UK, Finland, Dubai,

Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Singapore.

• To receive Fast Future’s newsletters please email

[email protected]

Page 62: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

• 50 key trends

• 100 emerging trends

• 10 major patterns of change

• Key challenges and choices for

leaders

• Strategic decision making framework

• Scenarios for 2012

• Key futures tools and techniques

• Published August 2008

• Price £49.95 / €54.95/ $69.95

• Email invoice request to

[email protected]

Designing Your FutureKey Trends, Challenges and Choices

Page 63: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Image Sources

Page 64: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Image Sources p.1

Page:1. Left, right:

http://twistedsifter.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/multiple-exposure-airplane-take-off-hannover-airport-ho-yeol-ryu.jpghttp://siliconrepublic.com/fs/img/big%20data%20650%20shutterstock_104929805.jpg

3. Clockwise:http://leadingchange21.files.wordpress.com/2010/02/fast-pace-spedometer1.jpghttp://netshare.typepad.com/.a/6a00e54efb5ca08834010536c7d88e970b-320wihttp://www.healthtrust.org/dis/images/leftImage.pnghttp://images.sciencedaily.com/2009/07/090727140349-large.jpg

4. http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-EJhAZaiyA8E/TfRRHfKzDMI/AAAAAAAAAGo/JmTQLz1z0xc/s320/6a00d8341c65c453ef010536d4981b970c-800wi.jpg5. http://www.iata.org/publications/ceo-brief/oct-2013/PublishingImages/commercial-airline-profitability.png6. http://www.amadeus.com/airlineit/resources/reinventing_the_airport_ecosystem/img/amadeus-reinventing-the-airport-ecosystem-2012-en-infographic.jpg7. From left to right:

http://www.kleinfelderinsurance.com/img/commercial_insurance.jpghttp://www.blogcdn.com/www.autoblog.com/media/2012/03/autonomous-car.jpghttp://www.diseno-art.com/images/Audi_Quattroflex_1.jpg

8. http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/wwfuture/624_351/images/live/p0/0x/b6/p00xb6yp.jpg9. Left, right:

http://img.timeinc.net/time/magazine/archive/covers/2009/1101091207_400.jpghttp://tctechcrunch2011.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/bitcoin.png%3Fw%3D640

10. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/61/Map_of_emerging_markets.JPG11. Clockwise:

http://inclusionparadox.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/Multi-generational_Latino.jpghttp://batonrouge.myhomecareblog.com/files/2011/07/active_seniors4.jpg

Page 65: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Image Sources p.2

12. http://www.wallpaperex.com/wallpapers/green_environmental_issues_mac_wallpapers_hd_634101_jpeg-wide.jpg13. http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Y_VW1n5Z54A/TBf0sjq-etI/AAAAAAAACXM/J_wOQ9kRtug/s1600/MEGACITIES_2310.gif14. http://cdn.theatlanticcities.com/img/upload/2013/05/06/shutterstock_132797276/largest.jpg15. http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v303/wreckless13/Zeitgeist/TVP2010A/aircraft.jpg16. http://infrastructureintel.files.wordpress.com/2013/06/infrastructurespending20301.png17. http://inhabitat.com/rotterdams-wooden-luchtsingel-footbridge-is-a-fantastic-piece-of-crowdfunding-architecture/18. http://infocult.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/employee-of-the-month.jpg19. http://www.careercapitalist.com/.a/6a00d8345275cf69e201a3fca52fe1970b-450wi20. http://www.qualcommtricorderxprize.org/22. http://wp.streetwise.co/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/10_DesktopComputer.jpeg23. Clockwise:

http://quietfurybooks.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/original-cell-phone.jpghttp://blogs.cio.com/sites/cio.com/files/u7727/Smartphones.jpghttp://images.thenews.com.pk/updates_pics/apple-unviels-ipad-air_10-22-2013_123439_l.jpg

24. Clockwise:http://cdn2.ubergizmo.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Google_Glass_features_in_flux.jpeghttp://cdn-static.cnet.co.uk/i/c/blg/cat/mobiles/samsung-gear-myvouchercodes.jpeghttp://2.bp.blogspot.com/-StC2ZrWjsfE/T-PV9BO5xsI/AAAAAAAACII/8-DlVgXSrUY/s1600/fuelband3.jpg

26. http://www.mondolithic.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/You-Are-Only-Coming-Through-In-Waves.jpg27. http://smartdesignworldwide.com/thinking/wp-content/uploads/internetofthings_480x324_final.jpg28. http://www.telecom-cloud.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/Immersive-Media-Paradigm.jpg29. http://overthemoonscifi.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/brain-mind.jpeg

Page 66: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Image Sources p.3

30. http://michalryjak.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/applying-collaborative-innovation-to-design-thinking.jpg31. http://www.plumvoice.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/deeplearning.gif32. Top, bottom:

http://www.newsyaps.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/digital-brain.jpghttp://www.pakalertpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/Transhuman-Symbolism-in-Prometheus.png

33. http://scienceline.org/wp-content/uploads/2007/01/genes.jpg34. Clockwise:

http://www.midwich.com/common/userfiles/midwich/cube-cubeX.pnghttp://www.printedelectronicsworld.com/images/v5/articles/820x615/main3149.jpghttp://www.rumormillnews.com/pix5/nbic8.jpghttp://crnano.org/srg-iii-pov-animation2.gif

35. http://cdn.ientry.com/sites/webpronews/article_pics/avatar2045.jpg36. http://blog.ocad.ca/wordpress/envr4c03-fw2011-01/files/2011/09/vertical-farm-seatle-01.jpg37. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2083883/Ark-Hotel-construction-Chinese-built-30-storey-hotel-scratch-15-days.html38. http://www.instablogsimages.com/1/2011/10/03/bmw_autonomous_car_dtcci.jpg39. http://s3files.core77.com/blog/images/2013/05/high-speed-tube-01.jpg40. http://www.iftf.org/uploads/media/IFTF_FutureWorkSkillsSummary_01.gif41. Left, right:

http://3008docklands.com.au/article/neighbourhood/1490http://www.answers.com/topic/cloud-computing

42. Top, bottom:http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/828858/kickstarter-project-goal-800.jpeghttp://www.theverge.com/2011/12/20/2644358/kickstarter-success-product-development-revolution

44. http://d13z1xw8270sfc.cloudfront.net/origin/187940/china_southern_airlines_boeing_787-81b_dreamliner_b-2727_ai148_34925_43.jpg45. http://images.dailytech.com/nimage/612353-samoa-air.jpg

Page 67: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Image Sources p.4

46. http://a57.foxnews.com/global.fncstatic.com/static/managed/img/660/371/frontier.jpg?ve=1&tl=147. http://img.planespotters.net/photo/139000/original/A6-EDI-Emirates-Airbus-A380-800_PlanespottersNet_139568.jpg48. Top, bottom:

http://www.apex-foundation.org/wp-content/uploads/hipmunk-same-price-better-flight.pnghttp://www.bossstart.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Hipmunk.jpg

49. http://www.cntraveler.com/dam/blogs/perrinpost/photos/uncategorized/2008/02/11/seatexpertcom.png50. http://www.frugaltravelguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/backbid.png51. http://www.tecnohotelnews.com/2012/05/puede-cambiar-tingo-el-modelo-de-comercializacion-de-los-hoteles52. http://infolific.com/images/fun/metaphor-for-complexity.gif53. http://startingyourbiz.files.wordpress.com/2012/07/man-taking-leap-of-faith1.jpg

Page 68: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Background Notes

Page 69: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

The Ark Hotel

• Builders in China put up the Ark Hotel - a 30-storey 183,000-square-foot

hotel in 15 days / 360 hours. None of the workers suffered any injuries

during the construction process.

• The hotel was built on Dongting lake in the Hunan Province, by Broad

Group, a Chinese construction company which specialises in sustainable

architecture. Tests suggest that the building should be able to withstand a

magnitude 9 earthquake. The China Academy of Building Research claims

the hotel is five times more quake-resistant than conventional buildings.

• All the materials were prefabricated and sections were built to specification

off-site, so there was very little wastage during the construction process.

Source: Daily Mail, 09/01/2012: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2083883/Ark-Hotel-construction-Chinese-built-30-storey-hotel-scratch-15-days.html

Page 70: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

The Ark Hotel

• Reportedly, the builders took just 46 hours to finish the main structural

components and another 90 hours to finish the building enclosure.

• The structure is soundproofed and thermal-insulated. There is air quality

monitoring in every room.

• The pervious record of the same firm is was a smaller 15-story building

constructed in just six days.

Source: Daily Mail, 09/01/2012: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2083883/Ark-Hotel-construction-Chinese-built-30-storey-hotel-scratch-15-days.html

Page 71: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Land Airbus - China

• Inhabitat (2013) reports that TBS China has unveiled the Land Airbus – a

giant car-swallowing bus that could potentially hit the streets of China.

• The vehicle is longer than previous versions, it can bend around corners,

and it travels along rails to enable smaller vehicles to pass underneath.

• The innovative urban transportation solution has a high-tech interior that is

entered via a glass elevator that drops down at air lift stations. While

passengers are getting on and off the vehicle, there is no hold up in traffic –

cars just keep going under the Land Airbus.

• TBS China claims that, compared to Metro, the new public transportation

vehicle would cost less, have a shorter construction period and almost

match passenger capacity.

Source: Inhabitat, 09/15/13: http://inhabitat.com/land-airbus-straddling-bus-as-the-future-of-public-transportation-in-the-city/

Page 72: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Hyperloop - The Future of Travel

• Hyperloop is a conceptual system that could transport passengers in pods

at near-supersonic speed – the vision of billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk.

• This transport concept could provide a viable alternative to short-haul travel,

high-speed rail and travelling by car.

• Hyperloop could reduce the journey time between Los Angeles and San

Francisco to just 30 minutes, compared to 75 minutes by plane and 5.5

hours by car.

• The concept is based on pods travelling through a low-pressure tube that

would be suspended above the ground.

Source: Future Travel Experience, 15/08/2013: http://www.futuretravelexperience.com/2013/08/hyperloop-the-future-of-travel-or-pure-science-fiction/

Page 73: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Hyperloop - The Future of Travel

• Pods would have a compressor on the front to pass the air to the rear and

some of the air would be used to create a cushion underneath the pod on

which it could ride. Electric induction motors at the beginning, middle and

end points of the tube would be used to accelerate and decelerate the pods.

• Musk believes the whole system could run on solar power, ticket prices

should be as low as $20.

• The Hyperloop could reduce travel times greatly and provide excellent

passenger experience. However, one of the biggest challenges is that much

of the technology that is needed for Hyperloop to become a reality doesn’t

yet exist.

Source: Future Travel Experience, 15/08/2013: http://www.futuretravelexperience.com/2013/08/hyperloop-the-future-of-travel-or-pure-science-fiction/

Page 74: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Hyperloop - The Future of Travel

• Development costs for the project are estimated at $6Bn - ten-times less than

the cost of the high-speed rail link between San Francisco and LA. Much more

than that would be needed for developing and testing new technologies.

• Also, the preliminary concept envisages a system of tubes and capsules that

would travel directly above the California highway between LA and San

Francisco.

• It is not clear how long will it take to convince the government and the public

that a building a futuristic transport system directly above a highway is a

sensible and safe idea.

Source: Future Travel Experience, 15/08/2013: http://www.futuretravelexperience.com/2013/08/hyperloop-the-future-of-travel-or-pure-science-fiction/

Page 75: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Frontier Airlines – A La Carte Pricing Model

• In December 2013 Frontier Airlines became the first U.S. airline to unveil a

new “menu-pricing” fare structure, in which passengers can choose from

among three different pricing levels: Classic Plus, Classic, and Economy.

• Classic Plus ticket – costs about $55 more than a Classic ticket on a New

York-Los Angeles one-way flight; it’s fully refundable, and includes priority

boarding, advanced seat assignments, two free checked bags, free DirecTV, a

150-percent frequent flier mileage credit, a snack and a "premium" beverage.

• Classic ticket – costs about $25 more than the Economy ticket, gets

passengers advanced seat assignments, two free checked bags, free DirecTV,

and a 125-percent frequent flier mileage credit. Ticket change fees are $50,

down from the normal $100.

Source: BudgetTravel.com, 22/12/13: http://www.budgettravel.com/blog/frontier-debuts-new-a-la-carte-pricing-model,10316/

Page 76: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Frontier Airlines – A La Carte Pricing Model

• Economy – no free perks included in this category, or increased mileage

earnings. Frontier charges economy passengers $15 for the first checked

bag, and $25 for the second. Snacks on long flights are $3.

• Air Canada has had a similar price structure for years. some U.S airlines

are rumored to be thinking about moving in this direction, including

American Airlines.

• Menu pricing has proven to be a money-maker for Air Canada and is very

popular among passengers.

Source: BudgetTravel.com, 22/12/13: http://www.budgettravel.com/blog/frontier-debuts-new-a-la-carte-pricing-model,10316/

Page 77: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Various Airline Pricing Schemes

• ‘’Pay-by-the-pound’’ model is only one of several weird, possibly

unwelcomed ways that flights might be priced down the line.

• Before Samoa Air announced plans to introduce the model, Ryanair was

speculating with a “fat tax” on overweight passengers.

• Samoa Air CEO Chris Langton seems to agree that ‘’pay-as-you-weigh”

structure “may provide significant benefits to airlines, passengers and

society at large”.

• Samoa Air flies very small planes (12-seaters), and its clientele tends to

be on the heavy side. Passengers account for far larger percentage of the

total mass than fliers do on the big planes flown by mainstream carriers.

Source: TIME, 08/04/2013: http://business.time.com/2013/04/08/air-travel-by-the-pound-and-other-odd-airline-pricing-schemes/

Page 78: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Various Airline Pricing Schemes

• For the vast majority of airlines with hundreds of fliers in per flight

weighing each passenger with baggage would be a logistical nightmare.

Airlines could also face boycotts and charges of discrimination.

• Therefore instead of weight-based pricing, passengers are more likely to

encounter more and more “debundling” of airfares.

• A study by IdeaWorks highlights three airline pricing models that aim to

boost ancillary revenues.

• One model is pure a la carte sales practised by low-fare carriers like Spirit

Airlines, in which pretty much everything other than basic transportation

costs extra and is priced individually.

Source: TIME, 08/04/2013: http://business.time.com/2013/04/08/air-travel-by-the-pound-and-other-odd-airline-pricing-schemes/

Page 79: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Various Airline Pricing Schemes

• Other models present travellers with a range of pricing options that allow

customers to pick (and pay for) the flight and package of services that best

suit their needs. These fare structures have proven to be quite lucrative for

airlines –the average Spirit passenger pays $103 in ancillary fees per

round trip.

• Other pricing models:

• Variable pricing system – In this model passengers agree to pay based on

the cost of fuel at the time of takeoff. Customers would pay one price

when they book flights, and then later could be charged more if fuel prices

rise between the time of purchase and departure.

Source: TIME, 08/04/2013: http://business.time.com/2013/04/08/air-travel-by-the-pound-and-other-odd-airline-pricing-schemes/

Page 80: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Various Airline Pricing Schemes

• Personalised pricing model – in this model airfares that show up in web

searches are determined partly on the individual’s travel and purchase

history, as well as factors like one’s marital status and nationality.

• Travel advocates argue that such a pricing scheme amounts to “profiling”

and that it would particularly discriminate against business travellers and

others that have limited flexibility with flight times.

• The world’s biggest airlines are among those supporting Resolution 787,

the proposed initiative that would allow such “personalized” pricing.

Source: TIME, 08/04/2013: http://business.time.com/2013/04/08/air-travel-by-the-pound-and-other-odd-airline-pricing-schemes/

Page 81: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

The World’s Top Innovative Companies in Travel

• 1. AIRBNB

• The Fast Company rates Airbnb as the most innovative travel company for

making the most of its hosts. By the summer of 2014, Airbnb is expected

to usurp the InterContinental Hotels Group and Hilton Worldwide as the

world's largest hotel chain--without owning a single hotel.

• The startup allows users to rent out their spare rooms or vacant homes to

strangers. It surpassed 10 million stays on its platform in 2013 and

doubled its listings to 550,000 in 192 countries. The company also tripled

revenue to an estimated $250 million.

Source: Fast Company, 2014: http://www.fastcompany.com/3026370/most-innovative-companies-2014/the-worlds-top-10-most-innovative-companies-in-travel

Page 82: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Luxury Travel Trends

• Travellers engage in at least one of the following four activities while at an airport -

eating (and drinking), shopping, working or relaxing.

• A network of business-class lounges, duty-free shops and food courts have been

developed to help travellers to better spend their time. Airlines are now seeking to

distinguish their brands further by offering addition services designed to meet the

demands and desires of their business- and first-class customers.

• Luxury consumers’ desire to cram more value, information, entertainment and

choice into each moment is growing exponentially. Travel time is a multi-tasking

opportunity and airlines that stand out are the ones that allow their customers to go

beyond the four aforementioned activities and experience something new.

Source: Telegraph, 23/06/2013: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/luxury/travel/717/luxury-travel-trends-aviation-innovations.html

Page 83: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Luxury Travel Trends

• Some airports, airlines and travel brands are servicing the growing need

for immersive experiences while in transit.

• 1) Virgin Atlantic – in February 2013 the airline opened the Gallery in the

Air, enabling Upper Class passengers on the carrier’s New York to London

routes to purchase original artworks by Ben Eine while on board. A

selection of the British artist’s works were displayed at clubhouses in JFK,

Newark and Heathrow airports, while passengers could view a virtual

gallery tour of ten one-off pieces during their flight. The artworks were

priced at £2,500 to £15,000, and could be purchased by placing a 25 per

cent deposit with Virgin Atlantic cabin attendants.

Source: Telegraph, 23/06/2013: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/luxury/travel/717/luxury-travel-trends-aviation-innovations.html

Page 84: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Luxury Travel Trends

• 2) UA Cinemas opened an IMAX theatre in Hong Kong International airport in late 2012.

Travellers with long layovers can watch IMAX movies in 2D or 3D. The IMAX theatre has

the largest cinema screen in Hong Kong.

• 3) The Museum Space at the Charles de Gaulle airport in Paris is designed to showcase

French artistic and cultural heritage. The museum space was opened in January 2013

and offers free access to passengers. Exhibitions in the Museum Space change every

six months.

• 4) British Airways completed ‘UnGrounded’, an 11-hour innovation lab that took place

during a transatlantic flight from San Francisco to London in March 2013. 100

participants chosen by the BA advisory board were tasked with designing a platform that

addressed the misalignment of emerging science and technology talent and

development opportunities. When the flight landed, participants presented their ideas at

the annual Decide Now Act Summit.

Source: Telegraph, 23/06/2013: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/luxury/travel/717/luxury-travel-trends-aviation-innovations.html

Page 85: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Luxury Travel Trends

• 5) In May 2013 Quantas collaborated with publishing house Hachette on a

collection of bespoke books entitled ‘Stories for Every Journey. Each book is

designed to last for the duration of one of the airline’s routes and features a unique

cover, as well as a foreword and a personal note from the Qantas CEO. The books

are available for free to Qantas Platinum Fliers on a variety of routes.

• 6) The Mexican government launched ‘Mayan Parade’ on 21 December 2012, an

exhibition in airports across Europe and North and South America to celebrate

Mayan culture at the end of the Mayan calendar. Artists from Mexico, the US, and

Brazil were invited to decorate fibreglass statues of the Mayan emperor Pakal.

Each sculpture features a QR code linking to augmented reality content on the

exhibition.

Source: Telegraph, 23/06/2013: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/luxury/travel/717/luxury-travel-trends-aviation-innovations.html

Page 86: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Luxury Travel Trends

• 7) During 2013 SXSW conference and festival, American Airlines

announced their ‘Napkin Pitch Contest’ onboard flights to Austin, Texas –

where the festival takes place. Passengers were invited to outline an

entrepreneurial venture on the airline’s branded napkins and submit it to

their lounge at the Austin Convention Center or the Startup America

Lounge at the Austin Hilton.

• Apanel of business and innovation experts awarded winners with bundles

of American Airlines air miles.

• The Telegraph suggests that travellers increasingly seek unique status

boosters from their travel experiences – not only at their destination but

before and while getting there.

Source: Telegraph, 23/06/2013: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/luxury/travel/717/luxury-travel-trends-aviation-innovations.html

Page 87: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Nextpedition – Surprise Vacation Planning

• Nextpedition was developed by American Express, primarily targeting

twentysomethigs, and creates trips based on a person’s travel profile without the

person knowing where she/ he is going until the last minute.

• A short survey is used to find a person’s travel sign. Then three of the top travel

signs that suit are person are revealed, one of these can be chosen. The next step

is to request a consultation plus connecting the Nextpedition Facebook app to a

profile. A specialist plans the trip without revealing any details. Just before the trip,

the traveller receives the necessary documents plus a digital handheld travel

console which reveals the itinerary.

• Domestic trips start at $1,000; Europe trips start at $2,500; 7-day minimum;

booking must be done at least 30 days in advance.

Source: Travel+Leisure, 04/05/2011: http://www.travelandleisure.com/travel-blog/carry-on/2011/4/5/nextpedition-surprise-vacation-planning

Page 88: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Reinventing the Travel Space

• These companies are reinventing the travel space:

• Room 77:

• Based on a concept that if customers can chose a seat on a plane, they

should also be able to chose their room. Room 77 offers the chance to see

what individual rooms within a hotel look like, and how to book that room.

The database includes more than 560,000 rooms.

• BusinessTravel.com:

• Aims to capture the business of corporate travel for small business with 20

employers or less. There are over 40 million of these enterprises in the US

alone.

Source: Eye for Travel, 30/09/2011: http://www.eyefortravel.com/distribution-strategies/innovation-travel-meet-6-new-companies-who-are-reinventing-travel-space

Page 89: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Reinventing the Travel Space

• The hotel search facility enables travellers to find a business hotel with all

the necessary requirements.

• Gogobot:

• Gogobot has already gained many national and international awards. The

ethos of Gogobot is that when travellers plan a trip, they should get the

advice and tips from the extended network of friends, family and colleagues,

and from people who travel like them.

• Hipmunk:

• A brand new style of flight meta-search that aims to, in their own words, “take

the agony out of travel planning.” It tells things that other meta-search sites

don’t.

Source: Eye for Travel, 30/09/2011: http://www.eyefortravel.com/distribution-strategies/innovation-travel-meet-6-new-companies-who-are-reinventing-travel-space

Page 90: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Reinventing the Travel Space

• like which will be “dark flights” for plane sleepaholics. It then shows in a

clearer than clear capacity- the cheapest, the quickest, the shortest stopover,

and more.’

• HotelTonight:

• This is an app for iPhone and Android, which gives consumers the

opportunity to book a same-day hotel whilst on the move, direct through their

mobile phones. The business model is to use distressed hotel inventory to fill

last minute rooms with last minute guests. Deals can knock off up to 70% of

the usual hotel price.

Source: Eye for Travel, 30/09/2011: http://www.eyefortravel.com/distribution-strategies/innovation-travel-meet-6-new-companies-who-are-reinventing-travel-space

Page 91: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Reinventing the Travel Space

• Backbid:

• Allows travellers with flexible hotel reservations to post to Backbid and let

other hoteliers in the same area offer them a cheaper rate or more incentives

to move over the booking to them.

• HotelTonight was the winner of the 2011 EyeforTravel North American

Innovation Award, held as part of TDS North America. Hipmunk was the

runner up.

Source: Eye for Travel, 30/09/2011: http://www.eyefortravel.com/distribution-strategies/innovation-travel-meet-6-new-companies-who-are-reinventing-travel-space

Page 92: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

TINGO

• Tingo is part of Trip Advisor and focuses on hotels.

• With Tingo, consumers book the hotel whenever they want, and the service

automatically re-books in the future at a lower price if the rate drops. No

extra work's involved from user's side. Users get notified about lower price,

rebooking and the difference refunded.

• Price transparency is expected to become the norm, coming also to airlines

and other parts of travel ecosystem.

Source: Mashable, 07/12/12: http://mashable.com/2012/12/07/innovation-index-travel/

Page 93: Rohit Talwar   Aviation Futures - ATAG Conference - April 29th 2014

Additional Sources• Genetic profiling - https://www.23andme.com/

• X Prize - Breakthrough innovation projects - http://www.xprize.org/

• Google brain uploading - http://digitaljournal.com/article/352787

• Brain mapping projects - http://www.technologyreview.com/news/513011/why-obamas-brain-

mapping-project-matters/

• Global Future 2045 (immortality) http://2045.com/

• Human enhancement - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_enhancement

• Wearable technology – Google Project Glass - http://www.google.com/glass/start/

• Emotiv Epoc Brain-Computer Interface - http://www.emotiv.com/

• AI Essay Grading Software - http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/05/science/new-test-for-

computers-grading-essays-at-college-level.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

• Crypto currencies –

– http://www.abc.net.au/technology/articles/2013/09/25/3855973.htm

– http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency

– http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cryptocurrencies

• Autonomous cars -

– http://www.engineering.com/DesignerEdge/DesignerEdgeArticles/ArticleID/6357/Tesla-

Working-on-Autonomous-Car.aspx

– http://www.popsci.com/cars/article/2013-09/google-self-driving-car