The Future – What Leaders Should Know

Rohit Talwar - CEO – Fast Future

CANSO Global ATM Summit

Dublin - June 29th 2014rohit@fastfuture.com www.fastfuture.com

Contents

• Presentation p. 4

• About Fast Future p. 46

• Image Sources p. 58

• Background Notes p. 63

What we do Foresight Research

Helping you explore and understand the roadmap of economic,

business, scientific, technological, social, political and environmental

trends, forces, developments and ideas shaping the future of the sector

Consulting

Helping you create future strategies, business models and innovations

to help respond to and create disruptive change

Speaking and Moderating

Delivering keynote speeches offering inspiring insights into a changing

world and how others are responding to the future

Future Leadership Programs and Events

Designing high impact leadership development programs, workshops

and events that encourage new thinking, bring the future to life and

enable you to develop an action agenda

Business Design and Innovation

Facilitating development of innovative, future proofed designs for

products, services, processes and customer experiences

Can we Change our DNA?

Play by the

Rules of the

Game

Create a

New Game

Our Research suggests airports need to see themselves an

as ecosystem - An integrated portfolio of models

Conceptual

Model

Infrastructure

ModelRevenue

Model

Customer

Engagement

Model

Service

Delivery

Model

Financing

Model

‘Future Proofed’ Organisations

Work on 3 Horizons in Parallel

4-10+ Years

Creating

the Future

1-3 Years

Search for

Growth

1-12 Months

Operational

Excellence

Future Strategic Challenges

Economic and Political Uncertainty and

Turbulence are the ‘New Normal’

Continued Global Shifts Of

Influence, Wealth and

Power to Emerging Markets

Intense Competition

Strategy, ICT, Insight, Ideas, Responsiveness, Innovation, Financing,

Structure, Business Models, New Entrants and Talent

Disruptive

Innovation is

the Holy Grail

Crowdsourcing Innovation

Socio-Demographic Shifts are

Reshaping Society

Free education is a game changer

Risk and Sustainability Issues Will Play a

Bigger Role in Decision Making

Growing Cities – New Rules

Automation is Accelerating…

....and eliminating jobs

Robots are Entering the Workforce

New Organization and Collaboration Models

Embracing the Transformative Role of IT

Customer

Centric

‘Hive Mind’

Talent:

Develop and

Leverage

Staff

Innovate to

Differentiate

Re-engineer

Processes

Technology Timeline

Our Technologies are Evolving From

the Desktop...

...to Portable and Mobile ...

...to Wearable...

...to Embedded...

... to Grown and Grafted...

…and totally Connected via

‘The Internet of Everything’

“What happens when the smartest thing in the room is the room itself?”

Madeleine Albright

An Immersive Multi-Sensory Internet

is Emerging

Speech / gesture / image recognition, integrated analytics, knowledge management, image / video / voice mining, client self-service, intelligent documents, expertise systems, collaboration, secure

email, virtual assistants, intelligent agents and collective intelligence

AI is

Here

Collective and Collaborative

‘Magic’ and Science are Blurring

Mapping and

Uploading the

Human Brain

Cognitive,

Genetic, Physical

and Electronic

Enhancement of

the Human Body

The biological era is emerging

Science is Creating New Sectors

‘Big Science’ is the Battleground

Barbarians at the Gate

New Ideas are Reshaping Industries

Rapid Execution e.g. Superfast Construction

Ark Hotel - Dongting Lake - China

New Paradigms

Challenge Old

Orthodoxies

e.g. Hyperloop

Virtual CollaborationNovel and Adaptive Thinking Social Intelligence

Trans DisciplinarityNew Media Literacy

Computational Thinking

Design MindsetCross Cultural Competency Sense MakingCognitive Load Management

Assets: ‘Usership’ vs. Ownership

Innovation: e.g. Kickstarter.com

Alternative Revenue Models E.g. Auctions

$5190 (£3088)

$14,770(£8791.50)

$136(£81)

Mindset - 3 Horizon Thinking

• 12 Months

• 1-3 Years

• 4-10 Years

Management -

Tackling Complexity• Customer Interface

• Process

• Organisation

• Information / Systems

• Regulatory

• Human

…or be Consumed by them

Conclusion - Step into Our Fears…

About Fast Future

• 50 key trends

• 100 emerging trends

• 10 major patterns of change

• Key challenges and choices for

leaders

• Strategic decision making framework

• Future Scenarios

• Key futures tools and techniques

Designing Your Future -

Key Trends, Challenges and Choices

Reinventing the Airport Ecosystem

• Drivers of change

• Science and technology advances

• Customer expectations

• Innovation priorities

• Strategies and business models

• Surveys to test ideas and scenarios on a

global audience

• Models for managing tomorrows airport

ecosystem

• http://www.amadeus.com/airlineit/resour

ces/reinventing_the_airport_ecosystem/i

ndex.html?OADS=78

ILTA Legal Technology

Future Horizons Project

• Key business and legal trends and forces

• Timeline of emerging technologies and IT developments

with high potential legal impact

• Explores IT’s transformative role in future legal business

models and service differentiation

• Defines strategic business and IT imperatives

• 6 sponsors - combined desk research, interviews with

managing partners, CIO’s, vendors, futurists and

technologists, global surveys on the business applications

of IT and emerging technologies

• http://www.iltanet.org/Downloads/LTFH-Report.pdf

• 200 emerging technology developments

http://www.iltanet.org/Downloads/TechTimelineAppendixLTFH.pdf

Futurium - Science and Technology

Transformations Shaping the World of 2050

• European Commission project

• Examined 87 potential

developments and trends

• Clustered into 11 overarching future

societal themes

• Content identified through a

combination of crowdsourcing via

the Futurium web platform,

suggestions from the EC, and ideas

proposed by our team

• http://ec.europa.eu/digital-

agenda/futurium/

Futurium

ACCA / IMA – 100 Drivers of Change

• Identifies 100 drivers of change

impacting business and the

accounting profession

• Outlines future scenarios for the

accounting function

• Highlights strategic imperatives for

business and the accounting function

• ‘5 minutes on’ executive summary

• Report:

www.accaglobal.co.uk/en/research-

insights/accountancy-futures/drivers-

change.html

Hotels 2020• Identifying key drivers of change for the

globally branded hotel sector over the

next decade

• Examining the implications for:

Hotel strategy

Brand portfolio

Business models

Customer targeting

Innovation

http://www.amadeus.com/hotelit/

beyond-segmentation.html

• Global strategic foresight study to help the meetings industry prepare for

the decade ahead - Industry-wide sponsors

• Future strategies for venues, destinations and agencies

Convention 2020

Rohit Talwar• Global futurist and founder of Fast Future Research.

• Award winning speaker on future insights and strategic innovation –

addressing leadership audiences in 40 countries on 5 continents

• Author of Designing Your Future

• Profiled by UK’s Independent Newspaper as one of the Top 10 Global

Future Thinkers

• Led futures research, scenario planning and strategic consultancy projects

for clients in telecommunications, technology, pharmaceuticals, banking,

travel and tourism, environment, food and government sectors

• Clients include 3M, BBC, BT, BAe, Bayer, Chloride, DTC De Beers, DHL,

EADS, Electrolux, E&Y, GE, Hoover, Hyundai, IBM, ING, Intel, KPMG,

M&S, Nakheel, Nokia, Nomura, Novartis, OECD, Orange, Panasonic,

Pfizer, PwC, Samsung, Shell, Siemens, Symbian, Yell , numerous

international associations and governments agencies in the US, UK,

Finland, Dubai, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Singapore.

• To receive Fast Future’s newsletters please email rohit@fastfuture.com

Videos of Rohit Exploring the Future

The World in 2025 - Driving Forces, Global Challenges and Potential

Disruptions (35 mins) http://vimeo.com/93302584

Anticipating 2025 - Driving forces, global challenges and potential

disruptions (30 mins): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kwcLQCIfxpY

A World in Transition (60 mins):

http://www.colliers.com/en-gb/uk/insights/multimedia

Future of Travel (22 mins)

http://www.travelmole.tv/watch_vdo.php?id=14300

Parallel Revolutions Impacting Global Labor: Bloomberg TV Interview (4

mins): http://www.bloomberg.com/video/parallel-revolutions-impacting-

global-labor-talway-T0tJZRX6TpGIxjKShTzv~w.html

Useful Sources• Genetic profiling - https://www.23andme.com/

• X Prize - Breakthrough innovation projects - http://www.xprize.org/

• Google brain uploading - http://digitaljournal.com/article/352787

• Brain mapping projects - http://www.technologyreview.com/news/513011/why-obamas-brain-mapping-project-matters/

• Global Future 2045 (immortality) http://2045.com/

• Human enhancement - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_enhancement

• Wearable technology – Google Project Glass - http://www.google.com/glass/start/

• Emotiv Epoc Brain-Computer Interface - http://www.emotiv.com/

• AI Essay Grading Software - http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/05/science/new-test-for-computers-grading-essays-at-college-

level.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

• Digital / Crypto currencies –

– http://www.abc.net.au/technology/articles/2013/09/25/3855973.htm

– http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency

– http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cryptocurrencies

• Autonomous cars -

– http://www.engineering.com/DesignerEdge/DesignerEdgeArticles/ArticleID/6357/Tesla-Working-on-Autonomous-Car.aspx

– http://www.popsci.com/cars/article/2013-09/google-self-driving-car

Contact Information

Email rohit@fastfuture.com

Phone +44 (0)7973 405145

Web http://www.fastfuture.com

Twitter http://twitter.com/fastfuture

Blog http://widerhorizons.wordpress.com

LinkedIn http://www.linkedin.com/in/talwar

Past presentations http://www.slideshare.net/fastrohit

Newsletter signup http://fastfuture.com/?page_id=13

Our current charitable campaigns:

Charlotte Talwar's fundraising project to build a new toilet block for Sunrise School Ghana

http://www.gofundme.com/7gaxho

Street Kids International - Helping Street-Active Youth In Ghana Start Businesses

https://www.globalgiving.co.uk/projects/help-street-active-youth-in-ghana-start-businesses

Image Sources

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34. http://cdn.ientry.com/sites/webpronews/article_pics/avatar2045.jpg35. http://www.daz3d.com/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136e95/f/r/frost-giants-8.jpg36. http://blog.ocad.ca/wordpress/envr4c03-fw2011-01/files/2011/09/vertical-farm-seatle-01.jpg37. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2083883/Ark-Hotel-construction-Chinese-built-30-storey-hotel-scratch-15-days.html38. http://s3files.core77.com/blog/images/2013/05/high-speed-tube-01.jpg39. http://www.iftf.org/uploads/media/IFTF_FutureWorkSkillsSummary_01.gif40. Left, right:

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Background Notes

Technology Transforming Air Traffic Management

• For years air traffic control has been dependant on the skill and ability of the person doing the

controlling. It is only relatively recently that that expertise has become increasingly married to better

and better technological tools.

• Technology isn’t replacing the need for air traffic controllers, but it is changing the nature of their

job. From a mainly manual operation, controlling is now much more about making planned

decisions supported by technological tools.

• iFacts is a software developed by NATS that allows them to handle more traffic comfortably and

safely. iFACTS enables controllers to look up to 18 minutes into the future, with this ‘look-ahead’

capability enabling them to test the viability of various options available for manoeuvring aircraft, as

well as providing more time to make decisions.

Source: NATS Blog, 26/07/13: http://nats.aero/blog/2013/07/how-technology-is-transforming-air-traffic-management/

iFACTS

• iFACTS is a software that takes some of the complex manual calculations out of air traffic control.

• It is based on Trajectory Prediction and Medium Term Conflict Detection, provides decision-making

support and helps controllers manage their routine workload, increasing the amount of traffic they

can handle.

• iFACTS uses data from both aircraft and Nats itself to calculate flight paths, ascent and descent

details. The software can also identify potential collisions, working around 18 minutes ahead of real

time, and spot any unexpected behaviour by individual aircraft, highlighting potentially dangerous

situations in the sky.

Source: BBC, 5/02/13: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-21195765

iFACTS

• From an operational point of view, iFACTS enhances safety and through early detection of conflicts

between flights and helps reduce aircraft fuel burn and emissions by giving more precise routes.

• In 2012 it delivered an average 15% increase in airspace capacity in the UK, with some airspace

sectors growing as high as 40% without increasing the number of operational staff or redesigning

the air routes.

• NATS was given an award from the Royal Institute for Navigation in recognition of what iFACTS

has helped us achieve –

Source: NATS Blog, 26/07/13: http://nats.aero/blog/2013/07/how-technology-is-transforming-air-traffic-management/

NASA's vision for aeronautics

http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/new_global_aviation_graphic_v2.jpg

NASA’s Vision for Transforming Global Aviation

• NASA’s new vision embraces a future where global trends combine with emerging technologies to

transform flight around the world into something unimagined today.

• NASA's contributions to aviation are expected to be even more relevant as ongoing research leads

to new aircraft, improved mobility and safety, less strain on the environment, and an all-around

better experience in the sky.

• In crafting the new vision, NASA planners began by trying to understand what trends are taking

place around the world that might relate to aviation, concentrating on economics, technology and

the environment.

Source: NASA, 14/08/13: http://www.nasa.gov/aero/strategic_vision/#.U60uH_ldXQg

NASA’s Vision for Transforming Global Aviation

• One key trend is the rapid economic growth in the Asia Pacific region. The growth of the middle

class and cities will lead to many people willing to fly like everyone else in the world and to buy

more of the goods that come from around the globe.

• Other trends include the quickening pace at which revolutionary technology is invented and then

widely adopted, as well as the ongoing environmental concerns related to the climate and

availability of energy sources.

• Informed by these emerging global trends, NASA identified three "mega-drivers" that are expected

to shape the future look of aviation within the next 20 to 40 years.

Source: NASA, 14/08/13: http://www.nasa.gov/aero/strategic_vision/#.U60uH_ldXQg

NASA’s Vision for Transforming Global Aviation

• The first mega-driver relates to the expected growth in demand for all air services across the

planet. How must aviation change so it can fly enough to meet the worldwide demand every day,

routinely and safely?

• The second mega-driver deals with global climate issues, resources and energy. How can

aviation's impact on the environment be lessened? And are plentiful but significantly less expensive

sources of energy available?

• The third mega-driver involves incorporating new technology into aviation. How can the aviation

community best take advantage of the incredible advances being made in areas not usually tied to

aeronautics, such as power storage and robotics?

Source: NASA, 14/08/13: http://www.nasa.gov/aero/strategic_vision/#.U60uH_ldXQg

NASA’s Vision for Transforming Global Aviation

• Thrusters Ahead:

• Six areas of research to prioritize:

• Safe, efficient growth in global operations that will enable full deployment of the Next Generation

Air Transportation System in the United States by 2035 and develop technologies to substantially

reduce aircraft safety risks.

• Innovation in commercial supersonic aircraft that will provide data for a low level sonic boom

standard that could lead to permission for supersonic flight over land.

• Ultra-efficient commercial vehicles that will pioneer technologies for big leaps in efficiency and

environmental performance.

Source: NASA, 14/08/13: http://www.nasa.gov/aero/strategic_vision/#.U60uH_ldXQg

NASA’s Vision for Transforming Global Aviation

• Transition to low-carbon propulsion that gives industry more information about drop-in alternative

fuels (i.e., can be used in existing aircraft without changing systems), and pioneer low-carbon

propulsion technology.

• Real-time, system-wide safety assurance in which tools are developed for use in creating a

prototype of an integrated safety monitoring and assurance system that can detect, predict and

prevent safety problems in real time.

• Assured autonomy for aviation transformation that will enable the utilization of higher levels of

automation and autonomy across the aviation system.

Source: NASA, 14/08/13: http://www.nasa.gov/aero/strategic_vision/#.U60uH_ldXQg

Boeing's Advanced Vehicle Concept

• The concept centers around the familiar blended wing body design like the X-48.

• What makes this design different is the placement of the Pratt & Whitney geared turbofan engines

on the top of the plane's back end, flanked by two vertical tails to shield people on the ground from

engine noise.

• The design also uses other technologies to reduce noise and drag, and long-span wings to improve

fuel efficiency.

Source: Space.com: 19/07/12: http://www.space.com/14438-photos-future-airplanes-nasa-21st-century-aircraft.html

http://www.space.com/14438-photos-future-airplanes-nasa-21st-century-aircraft.html

The concept proposes a box

wing design, which is now

feasible thanks to modern

lightweight composite

(nonmetallic) materials, landing

gear technologies and other

advancements.

Lockheed Martin's Advanced Vehicle Concept

Source: Space.com: 19/07/12: http://www.space.com/14438-photos-future-airplanes-nasa-21st-century-aircraft.html

Northrop Grumman's

concept is based on

the extremely

aerodynamic "flying

wing" design. The four

Rolls Royce engines

are embedded in the

upper surface of the

wing to achieve

maximum noise

shielding.

Northrop Grumman's concept

Source: Space.com: 19/07/12: http://www.space.com/14438-photos-future-airplanes-nasa-21st-century-aircraft.html

This is a computer-generated image showing a possible future "flying wing" aircraft, very

efficiently and quietly in flight over populated areas. Developed by Northrop Grumman, it would most likely carry cargo at first and then also carry passengers.

Source: Space.com: 19/07/12: http://www.space.com/14438-photos-future-airplanes-nasa-21st-century-aircraft.html

Future Subsonic Aircraft – D8

• D8 is designed for efficiency and has a very wide fuselage to provide extra lift and low-swept wings

to reduce drag and weight. It is being developed by MIT, a subscale model was tested in MIT’s

wind tunnel in 2012.

• The model has a very wide fuselage for extra lift, low-swept wings for reduced drag and weight,

and engines above the fuselage for noise shielding.

Source: Space.com: 19/07/12: http://www.space.com/14438-photos-future-airplanes-nasa-21st-century-aircraft.html

http://www.space.com/14438-photos-future-airplanes-nasa-21st-century-aircraft.html

This future aircraft design concept

for supersonic flight was

developed by Lockheed Martin.

The team used simulation tools to

show it was possible to achieve

over-land flight by dramatically

lowering the level of sonic booms

through the use of an "inverted-V"

engine-under wing configuration.

Green Supersonic Machine

Source: Space.com: 19/07/12: http://www.space.com/14438-photos-future-airplanes-nasa-21st-century-aircraft.html

Icon-II" future aircraft design concept for supersonic flight over land developed by The Boeing Company.

Source: Space.com: 19/07/12: http://www.space.com/14438-photos-future-airplanes-nasa-21st-century-aircraft.html

Solar Impulse 2

• Solar Impulse 2 is is designed to stay aloft for several days straight in order to allow its pilots to

take it across the Pacific. To manage that feat, its designers have built a giant glider with a

wingspan greater than a 747's but weighing only as much as about a dozen of the jet's wheels.

• Every horizontal surface on the aircraft is covered with solar panels, and over a quarter of its

weight is accounted for by batteries that will keep its propellers turning overnight.

• The first flight only took two hours, and it took Solar Impulse 2 to an altitude of 1.6 km (about a

mile) and a maximum speed of 55 km/hour (35mph). Future flights will be longer and undoubtedly

build up to round-the-clock test flights. The flights will be based out of Payerne, Switzerland, near

the city of Lausanne on Lake Geneva

Source: ArsTechnica, 06/06/14: http://arstechnica.com/science/2014/06/around-the-world-solar-aircraft-takes-maiden-voyage/

http://arstechnica.com/science/2014/06/around-the-world-solar-aircraft-takes-maiden-voyage /

The Future of Unmanned Flight

• Thee Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International (AUVSI) says that unmanned

aircraft systems (UAS) will create $82 billion in economic impact over the 10-year span from 2015

to 2025.

• Some avionics companies have already created Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) control, guidance

and navigation micro-avionics systems that can fit into often small, lighter-than 5-pound systems.

• The use of UAS has already expanded beyond Border Patrol and military drone strikes. For

example, researchers at the University of Virginia employ UAV sensors that can comb the air for

pathogen spores and even detect concentrations for substances like anthrax via in-flight micro-

chemical lab processes.

Source: Aviation Today, 22/04/14: http://www.aviationtoday.com/av/issue/cover/The-Future-of-Unmanned-Flight_81910.html#.U61Sm_ldXQg

The Future of Unmanned Flight

• Brad Hayden, the former Vice President of marketing at Aspen Avionics and now Director of

Robotic Skies says ‘’ “In my mind, the future of flight is really going to be rooted in the integration of

the emerging commercial drone market and the current aviation support infrastructure’’.

• Developments in GPS, camera and accelerometer products, driven by smart phone market growth,

mean the technology is ready to cash-in on those AUVSI numbers, but the FAA has not released

safety standards and requirements for UAS.’’

• Regulation is clearly holding back the commercialization of UAS. Projections suggest that industry

sales from 2014 onward will total to $89 billion by 2023, yet the U.S. has not even entered that

market commercially.

Source: Aviation Today, 22/04/14: http://www.aviationtoday.com/av/issue/cover/The-Future-of-Unmanned-Flight_81910.html#.U61Sm_ldXQg

The Future of Air Traffic Management

• ‘’For the last 80 years, the world’s air traffic controllers have been safely guiding our flights through

the skies using some fairly familiar tools – radar, radios and little strips of paper to keep track of the

flights. The job is a complex and stressful one. It requires the controller to think in three dimensions

of space and keep track of aircraft carrying hundreds of people, moving very fast and often in

crowded airspace. But over the last few years, there has been a steady evolution in the way we

think about air traffic control. And it is allowing more capacity into the airspace, with even safer

operations and reduced fuel use.’’ Paul Steele, Executive Director, Air Transport Action Group

Source: ATAG (2012), Revolutionizing Air Traffic Management, Practical steps to accelerate airspace efficiency in your region:

file:///C:/Users/Iva/Downloads/Revolutionising%20ATM_FINAL_WEB%20RES.pdf

The Future of Air Traffic Management

• Since the aviation industry started in the 1930s, the introduction of any new technology or

operational procedure has been undertaken in a very systematic way and often quite slowly with

safety being the primary consideration.

• The industry is now flying jets produced in the 21century along routes that were in some cases

defined by the placement of radar stations in the 1940s and 50s which is leading to capacity

constraints and inefficient aircraft operations.

• Around the world, technology, collaboration and innovative new concepts are leading to a shift

away from air traffic ‘control’ to air traffic ‘management’. The aircraft – and the people that fly them

– are being given more decision-making authority over the speed and exact route of their flight than

before.

Source: ATAG (2012), Revolutionizing Air Traffic Management, Practical steps to accelerate airspace efficiency in your region:

file:///C:/Users/Iva/Downloads/Revolutionising%20ATM_FINAL_WEB%20RES.pdf

The Future of Air Traffic Management

• Improving aviation efficiency is no longer an option but an environmental and business necessity.

• Air traffic management (ATM) plays an important role in helping the aviation industry reduce carbon emissions

and save fuel which accounts for over one third of the operational costs for the world’s airlines.

• And while new aircraft are becoming ever quieter than their predecessors, new techniques in air traffic

management are also allowing for less of a noise impact on the communities around airports.

• Air traffic management and planning are not areas in which the industry can act alone. With issues of airspace

sovereignty and military restricted airspace, not to mention the fact that most air navigation service providers

are state-owned, governments must also play a key role in this evolution.

Source: ATAG (2012), Revolutionizing Air Traffic Management, Practical steps to accelerate airspace efficiency in your region:

file:///C:/Users/Iva/Downloads/Revolutionising%20ATM_FINAL_WEB%20RES.pdf

The Future of Air Traffic Management

• Much of the real change can only occur when the institutional arrangements that govern air traffic

control are reformed. Current governance restrictions and regulatory capabilities are holding back

the ability for air navigation service providers to respond to change.

• CANSO estimates that the current air traffic system is operating at 92% to 94% efficiency, on an

average global basis (with some significant regional variations). They have set a goal to reach 95%

to 98% efficiency by 2050.

• While it appears we are close to the goal now, it must be remembered that each year’s growth in

air traffic can add to the inefficiency, thus making efficiency gains harder to reach.

Source: ATAG (2012), Revolutionizing Air Traffic Management, Practical steps to accelerate airspace efficiency in your region:

file:///C:/Users/Iva/Downloads/Revolutionising%20ATM_FINAL_WEB%20RES.pdf

Airways New Zealand – Collaborative Flow Management

• Airways New Zealand has been using Collaborative Flow Management (CFM) to manage aircraft

arrivals at its key international airports. CFM in New Zealand uses ground delays to manage

terminal area congestion at the destination airport, similar to the US and Europe.

• By using the flow management process, aircraft do not leave the departure airport until they have

been given an exact time of arrival at the destination airport, therefore allowing flight at the

optimum speed and no need to hold before landing.

• The difference is that in New Zealand the calculated arrival times are used throughout the flight.

These times are transmitted to aircraft operating companies between two and three hours prior to

departure.

Source: ATAG (2012), Revolutionizing Air Traffic Management, Practical steps to accelerate airspace efficiency in your region:

file:///C:/Users/Iva/Downloads/Revolutionising%20ATM_FINAL_WEB%20RES.pdf

Airways New Zealand – Collaborative Flow Management

• The Controlled Time Of Takeoff and Controlled Time of Arrival are established through an online

‘reservation’ system based on the latest flight plan information as modelled by the ATM system and

the declared capacity for the destination airport, as determined by the ANSP.

• The airline operations team can manipulate their fleet times to prioritise or optimise the

management of their network but cannot manipulate other flights without mutual agreement

between the operating companies and approval of the CFM coordinator.

• The optimised departure times are provided to aircrew by their flight operations team using cockpit

communications system or pre-departure messages no later than 25 minutes prior to departure but

these can be modified and updated prior to take-off. Once the flights are airborne, the aircrew is

required to conform as closely as possible to the filed flight plan.

Source: ATAG (2012), Revolutionizing Air Traffic Management, Practical steps to accelerate airspace efficiency in your region:

file:///C:/Users/Iva/Downloads/Revolutionising%20ATM_FINAL_WEB%20RES.pdf

Airways New Zealand – Collaborative Flow Management

• If it were a country, the aviation sector alone would be the 19th largest economy in the world,

around the same size as Switzerland. The jobs the sector provides are 3.5 times more productive

than average jobs in the economy.

• Aviation also helps drive high-tech manufacturing, high-value produce and service industries such

as tourism – are areas that will continue to provide the stimulus for economic development around

the world.

• Oxford Economics forecast that by 2030, over 82 million jobs and $6.9 trillion in economic activity

would be supported by air transport, based on current growth rates.

Source: ATAG (2012), Revolutionizing Air Traffic Management, Practical steps to accelerate airspace efficiency in your region:

file:///C:/Users/Iva/Downloads/Revolutionising%20ATM_FINAL_WEB%20RES.pdf

Airways New Zealand – Collaborative Flow Management

• It is expected that by 2030 the number of flights will almost double to 48.7 million, up from 26

million in 2012. Passengers will also be travelling further. In 2010, over 4.8 trillion passenger

kilometres were flown by airlines (one passenger flying one kilometre is a ‘passenger kilometre’).

By 2030, forecasts suggest that 13.5 trillion passenger kilometres will be flown but the airspace is

not getting bigger.

• In Europe and North America, congestion has already been causing constraints to growth for a

number of years. One of the causes is the need to keep aircraft at sufficiently safe distances from

one another due to the lack of accuracy of legacy air navigation technology.

• The system is very safe, but it is not as efficient as it could be.

Source: ATAG (2012), Revolutionizing Air Traffic Management, Practical steps to accelerate airspace efficiency in your region:

file:///C:/Users/Iva/Downloads/Revolutionising%20ATM_FINAL_WEB%20RES.pdf

Airways New Zealand – Collaborative Flow Management

• Unlike the improvement projects in the United States or Europe, in Asia there is no overarching

legislative framework. However, there is a clear vision emerging for a Seamless Asian Sky.

• This foresees not a single sky as in Europe, but a system of information exchange and coordination

between air navigation service providers, which would allow for far greater efficiency.

• Capacity planning on the ground is also a crucial part of the system. Runways and airport

congestion can lead to delays in the air as well as on the ground and sufficient planning for new

infrastructure is vital. China is leading the way, with 82 airports scheduled for construction between

2011 and 2015 alone.

Source: ATAG (2012), Revolutionizing Air Traffic Management, Practical steps to accelerate airspace efficiency in your region:

file:///C:/Users/Iva/Downloads/Revolutionising%20ATM_FINAL_WEB%20RES.pdf

Airways New Zealand – Collaborative Flow Management

• Incentives to reduce CO2 emissions and fuel consumption have led to a series of aggressive cross

industry targets:

1) To improve fleet fuel efficiency by 1.5% per annum between 2009 and 2020.

2) To stabilise net CO2emissions from aviation from 2020 through carbon neutral growth

3) To reduce net CO2emissions from aviation by half by 2050, as compared with 2005.

Source: ATAG (2012), Revolutionizing Air Traffic Management, Practical steps to accelerate airspace efficiency in your region:

file:///C:/Users/Iva/Downloads/Revolutionising%20ATM_FINAL_WEB%20RES.pdf

Expected savings per year if air traffic management systems and technology on

board aircraft were optimised

Source: ATAG (2012), Revolutionizing Air Traffic Management, Practical steps to accelerate airspace efficiency in your region:

file:///C:/Users/Iva/Downloads/Revolutionising%20ATM_FINAL_WEB%20RES.pdf

Automatic Dependant Surveillance Broadcast

• ADS-B is a satellite-based technology enabling aircraft to be accurately tracked twice every second by air traffic

controllers, and other pilots, without the need for conventional radar.

• ADS-B increase safety and efficiency particularly in non-radar airspace. Air traffic controllers will be able to

provide pilots with radar-like separations resulting in more aircraft being able to use preferred flight routes. The

technology also offers improved access to flight levels with more efficient diversions around bad weather and

restricted areas.

• ADS-B has been strongly supported by the aviation industry. It is environmentally friendly and will help airlines

save fuel.

• ADS-B in Australia – Australia has a network of 61 ADS-B ground stations across Australia which provides

continent-wide air traffic control surveillance. Over the next three years Airservices will install a further 15 ADS-B

ground stations to provide additional surveillance coverage at lower altitudes and extend higher level coverage

offshore.

Source: Airservices, 28/05/14: http://newsroom.airservicesaustralia.com/releases/new-air-traffic-control-technology-improving-safety

ADS-B – Security Threats

• Computer scientist Andrei Costin gave a talk at the Black Hat security conference in Las Vegas in

2012 suggesting that ADS-B, which is replacing old radar systems, can be hacked.

• Planes cannot be forced from the sky or dangerously redirected. But the researcher says the

system can be tricked into seeing aircraft that are not actually there. Messages sent using the

system are not encrypted or authenticated, meaning anyone with the basic technology and know-

how could identify a plane and see its location.

• The traditional radars work by sending a signal that triggers an aircraft's responder to send back its

position. The new system uses the global satellite navigation system to continuously broadcast the

locations of planes. The information is sent to other aircraft and ground stations; the ground station

sends the location to air traffic controllers.

Source: CNN, 26/07/12: http://edition.cnn.com/2012/07/26/tech/web/air-traffic-control-security/

ADS-B – Security Threats

• The new system will open up this flight information to a new player: the general public.

• According to Costin, the chance of these security holes being exploited for terrorism is unlikely, but

he says they still have the potential to be used by pranksters, paparazzi and military intelligence

organizations interested in tracking private aircraft or confusing air traffic control systems on the

ground.

• In a statement, the Federal Aviation Administration said it already has a process in place for

addressing potential threats to the system, and it does conduct ongoing assessments of

vulnerabilities.

Source: CNN, 26/07/12: http://edition.cnn.com/2012/07/26/tech/web/air-traffic-control-security/

NextGen

• NextGen is a multi-year, multi-billion-dollar tracking system that incorporates satellite navigation technology

similar to what's now available in cars and on smartphones.

• It is intended to replace the traditional radar-based national air traffic control system developed after World War

II. The FAA hopes to complete the new system by 2025.

• By tracking the position and speed of aircraft more precisely than radar, the system will safely allow less time

and space between takeoffs and landings, minimizing chain-reaction type delays, and increasing the number of

movements at any given airport.

• The accompanying reduction in fuel consumption by reducing the time planes spend circling at airports or idling

on taxiways could save money and reduce countless tons of harmful emissions.

• However, the cost of the system is astronomical, with estimates ranging from $40 to $160 billion (in the US).

Source: Nj.com, 11/03/14:

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2014/03/cuts_to_nextgen_air_traffic_control_system_are_subject_of_hearing.html

Air Traffic Flow Management

• Balancing airport and airspace capacity and demand with ATFM (air traffic flow management)

provides a wide range of benefits such as reducing airborne holding, fuel burn and emissions and

ensures equitable use of resources.

• Airbus ProSky’s ATFM solution, Harmony, enables stakeholders to strategically, pre-tactically and

tactically balance demand with available capacity for improved performance and common

situational awareness in all phases of flight. Harmony includes collaborative decision making

(CDM) capabilities for stakeholders to proactively manage operations to utilise available capacity

through data sharing and advanced slot substitution capabilities.

Source: Air Traffic Technology International 2014: file:///C:/Users/Iva/Downloads/pages.pdf

Performance-Based Navigation

• Airbus ProSky offers turnkey solutions for deployment of performance-based navigation (PBN)

solutions for aircraft operators, airports and aviation authorities worldwide.

• PBN is helping the aviation industry save fuel, participate in eco-efficient developments, reduce

aircraft noise and operate in all weather conditions, even at the most complex airports worldwide.

Source: Air Traffic Technology International 2014: file:///C:/Users/Iva/Downloads/pages.pdf

Exact landing interference simulation environment

• ELISE is a software solution based on advanced technologies that model all objects in close

proximity to airports in order to analyse the impact to instrument landing system (ILS) antenna

signals.

• It can accurately predict and analyse disturbances caused by objects, allowing for improved airport

safety. It can be used for existing operational analysis, as well as to study the impact of proposed

temporary or permanent structures near the airport.

• Operational benefits of ELISE also include increased runway capacity in low visibility conditions

and airside land usage.

Source: Air Traffic Technology International 2014: file:///C:/Users/Iva/Downloads/pages.pdf

Airport CDM

• Airports are the nodes of the air transport network; consequently, they face the highest traffic

density of the entire system. The runway, taxiway and apron areas of high-traffic airports worldwide

are regarded as the main bottlenecks in the ATM system.

• Airport CDM (A-CDM) improves the overall efficiency, predictability and punctuality of airport

operations and improves overall network efficiency by improving ATFM departure compliance. By

including all stakeholders in the process through information sharing and active control based on

local and network constraints, A-CDM contributes to reduced buffer times for resource planning

and reduced flight times due to enhanced predictability by expanding the quality of information on

which decisions are made. A-CDM supports the best use of the available capacity and critical

airport resources.

Source: Air Traffic Technology International 2014: file:///C:/Users/Iva/Downloads/pages.pdf

Unmanned Aircraft

• Civil and military unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) currently face airspace restrictions.

• How do unmanned aircraft vehicles (UAV) gain safe, secure and efficient integration into non-segregated

airspace and aerodromes?

• A necessary safety aspect is the introduction of UAS into ‘high reliability’ ATC systems which include ground-

based ATC, policies and designs of airspace, collision avoidance ground/airborne equipment, and aircrew see-

and-avoid.

• A very useful recent document is the FAA’s framework for integrating UAS into future ATC. s. The Concept

excludes any integration of small UAVs that operate by ‘visual line of sight’ of the UAS ground control staff into

civil (manned) transport traffic. The thrust of the main UAS Concept is ensuring that UAS operations are

‘lookalike’ versions of civil IFR-based operations as far as technically possible. t UAVs must comply with

existing, adapted and/or new operating rules or procedures; not require new classes or types of airspace; file

and fly IFR flight plans; and comply with ATC separation minima in controlled airspace.

Source: Air Traffic Technology International 2014: file:///C:/Users/Iva/Downloads/pages.pdf

Critical Issues in Air Traffic Control

• To move towards harmonised airspace and away from the present fragmented nature of ATC

provision, CANSO is working towards achieving seamless airspace globally. In the future it should

not matter where an aircraft is; it should operate to harmonised procedures and adopt the optimum

route in terms of time and efficiency.

• The biggest hurdle towards this is the States themselves and their desire to retain full control of

everything in their airspace.

• Moving beyond sovereignty - Jeff Poole, CANSO’s director general, says that although

governments have sovereignty over their air space, they need to recognize that they don’t need to

manage it themselves strictly in accordance with their national boundaries.

Source: Air Traffic Technology International 2014: file:///C:/Users/Iva/Downloads/pages.pdf

Critical Issues in Air Traffic Control

• The one thing they can do is work together so that national geographical boundaries don’t remain boundaries in

the sky and barriers to progress. Aircrafts should be able to fly freely across a region’s airspace.

• Although some progress is being made, the biggest issues remain at governmental and regulatory levels.

• CANSO has been working through ICAO on a global air traffic navigation plan. Part of it are agreements on

technology and operational upgrades that can be made at the national and regional level by governments.

• Operational and technical issues lead to safety which is the industry number one priority although safety should

not be taken as an excuse by people who don’t want to embrace change.

Source: Air Traffic Technology International 2014: file:///C:/Users/Iva/Downloads/pages.pdf

Critical Issues in Air Traffic Control

• To improve safety, ANSPs have increasingly focused on safety-management systems. CANSO has

been taking a lead role in offering guidance to support the implementation of new systems that are

consistent with regional regulatory frameworks.

• An increase in the use of performance-based navigation is expected, which will enables aircraft to

fly more precisely defined paths without relying, as they have in the past, on ground-based

navigation systems.

Source: Air Traffic Technology International 2014: file:///C:/Users/Iva/Downloads/pages.pdf

Express Skyways

• What if the skies were stitched into one seamless blanket?

• Airbus vision - Aircraft could navigate more directly and thus more quickly, efficiently and safely

from Point A to Point B through optimal gate-to-gate flight paths or express flyways.

• Huge efficiencies would come from flying less track miles through optimal "gate-to-gate" flight

paths.

• On an Airbus test flight from Brussels to Stockholm, a 20-minute gain meant fuel savings of 725

kg., in turn reducing CO2 emissions by 2,283 kg.

• A generation of intelligent aircraft could use 4D navigation capability to self-select the most efficient

route, making optimum use of prevailing weather, atmospheric conditions and each other.

Source: Airbus: http://www.airbus.com/innovation/future-by-airbus/smarter-skies/aircraft-in-free-flight-and-formation-along-express-skyways/

Express Skyways

• Trailing planes can effectively "surf" on the energy coming from the wing tip vortices of the preceding aircraft.

This reduces drag, which increases fuel efficiency and minimises engine emissions.

• Airbus already is looking into cooperative flight scheduling and conducting research into aircraft stability and

control. In parallel, a new breed of sensors able to detect the wake of the previous aircraft and rapid state

changes must be developed.

• Avionic technologies already make this possible in principle. Lightweight remote sensing equipment such as

LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) and Infrared cameras allow aircraft to detect the wake vortex – which is the

turbulence produced by an aircraft in flight – of those ahead.

• For aircraft to autonomously keep station, they will need to communicate with each other. High-speed, real-time

computation, communication and coordination would take inputs from all sources in the air and on the ground.

High bandwidth telecommunications would cope with the increase in data being transferred around the network.

Source: Airbus: http://www.airbus.com/innovation/future-by-airbus/smarter-skies/aircraft-in-free-flight-and-formation-along-express-skyways/

A New Way to Fly

• In the past, air travel has mainly focussed on getting people to their destination in the safest and

fastest way possible. In the future, however, travelling could be an entirely different experience –

integrating different stages of the journey or possibly changing how passengers pay, and making

the excursion so enjoyable that passengers may want a trip to last even longer.

• Perhaps taking a plane could become as simple as taking public transportation – using the same

style of boarding platforms as for a metro or underground city train.

• In another scenario, passengers could be pre-seated in cabin pods before the plane actually

arrives, ready for integration on the aircraft, saving time and making processing much simpler.

Source: Airbus: http://www.airbus.com/innovation/future-by-airbus/a-whole-new-way-to-fly/

A New Way to Fly

In the future, instead of

operating dozens of separate

flights, perhaps airlines could

have giant aircraft carriers.

Smaller aircraft could dock on

them for most of the journey –

perhaps using vertical take-off

and landing techniques – then

be deployed on more localised

shuttle service at either end of the trip.

Source: Airbus: http://www.airbus.com/innovation/future-by-airbus/a-whole-new-way-to-fly/

SESAR

• The Single European Sky ATM Research program aims at developing air traffic management

system capable of ensuring the safety and flow of air transport worldwide over the next 30 years. It

is composed of three phases:

• Definition phase – expected to prepare the ATM master plan for defining the content, the

development and deployment plans of the next generation of ATM systems.

• Development phase – expected to produce a new generation of technological systems

• Deployment phase – expected to seek to build the new infrastructure at a wide scale both in

Europe and in partner countries. This will be carried out under the responsibility of the industry

without further public funding.

Source: European Commission: http://ec.europa.eu/transport/modes/air/sesar/index_en.htm

http://ec.europa.eu/transport/modes/air/sesar/index_en.htm

Satellite Innovation: Micro-

Satellites and Nano-satellites• According to Euroconsult, most small satellites are built for government clients

including the academic world. “Over three quarters of the 352 small satellites

launched and to be launched are requested by the civilian and military agencies

of various governments around the world,” says Villain. “When small satellites

built by academic institutions are added, the total grows to 91 percent with only 9

percent left for commercial companies.”

• As to where demand is coming from, in 2011 the United States is the dominant

force in this sector, with a 30 percent share due to high-demand from NASA and

the Department of Defence (DoD). Europe enjoys a 25 percent share, while Asia

follows suit with 22 percent thanks to activity in China and Japan. Russia has a

13 percent share of the market, while the Middle East and Africa (MENA) tops 9

percent and the rest of the world follows with 5 percent.

Source: http://www.satellitetoday.com/via/features/The-Bright-Future-of-Small-Satellite-Technology_37150.html

Satellite Innovation: Micro-

Satellites and Nano-satellites

• There are certain applications that seem commonly well suited to small satellites:

in-orbit technology demonstration and testing; Earth observation; and space

science. Together, these three examples dominate 80 percent of the application

environment, portraying a clear indication of an increasing number of countries

entering space.

• Traditionally, satellite manufacturing has been the domain of a handful of large

aerospace companies from technologically advanced countries and regions such

as the United States and Europe. Small satellites, however, are bringing about

major changes to this world order, as an increasing number of developing

countries are entering the space sector

Source: http://www.satellitetoday.com/via/features/The-Bright-Future-of-Small-Satellite-Technology_37150.html

Satellite Innovation: Micro-

Satellites and Nano-satellites

• growth area is that of very small satellites — nanosats and cubesats. While the

capability of these satellites is still generally below what is needed for most

operational missions, they can be implemented at an extremely low-cost and are

becoming widespread for educational missions

• More satellite mission types are being developed to provide support to valuable

applications, opening opportunities for instrument builders, subsystem suppliers

and other supply chain elements.

• Launch costs, debris creation and competition from hosted payloads

applications, are costs to be considered across the whole satellite value chain.

Cost-effective launches remain important, as small satellites are still penalised in

comparison to larger platforms when it comes to launch costs per kilogram of

mass.

Source: http://www.satellitetoday.com/via/features/The-Bright-Future-of-Small-Satellite-Technology_37150.html

Satellite Innovation: Micro-

Satellites and Nano-satellites

• There is a trend in imaging missions is the ever increasing demand for very high

resolution data which is in demand

• There is also a trend of small satellites moving into other areas which have been

the domain of larger satellites until recently, for example, radar missions can now

be supported through small satellite solutions such as the SSTL NovaSAR

(synthetic aperture radar) system.

• Smaller and cheaper satellites continued to be pioneered, reducing entry costs

and allowing the public to be engaged in the production and use of satellites.

Examples include the N-Prize for a citizen team developing a nano-satellite

(nothing has yet been achieved), PhoneSat and SkyCube

Source: http://www.satellitetoday.com/via/features/The-Bright-Future-of-Small-Satellite-Technology_37150.html

PhoneSat

http://www.wired.com/wiredenterprise/wp-content/uploads//2012/08/android-phonestat.jpg

PhoneSat• Project by NASA’s Ames Research Center in Silicon Valley

• Aims to lower the cost of building space satellites to the point where anyone with

space ambitions could launch a satellite

• PhoneSat 1.0

– costs about $3,500 to build.

– It’s a coffee-cup-sized cube designed to withstand cosmic radiation,

– contains an HTC Nexus One phone running the Android operating system, an

external radio beacon, external batteries, and a circuit that will reboot the phone

if it stops transmitting data — all off-the-shelf commercial parts.

– anyone can write software for it from home

• PhoneSats 2.0, will use newer Samsung Nexus S phone (launch June 2013)

Source: http://www.satellitetoday.com/via/features/The-Bright-Future-of-Small-Satellite-Technology_37150.html

SkyCube

http://www.dzgn.co/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/DZGN-SkyCube-by-Southern-Stars-1.jpg

SkyCube

• Made by Southern Stars, makers of astronomy apps for iOS and Android.

• The plan is to launch a cube satellite from a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket in 2013.

• Backers of the project will be able to broadcast their own messages from the satellite, as well as

request photos from the satellite using mobile apps. The project has raised nearly $70,000 of its

$82,500 goal in August 2012

Source: http://www.satellitetoday.com/via/features/The-Bright-Future-of-Small-Satellite-Technology_37150.html

Satellite Innovation• Growth in ubiquitous geo-positioning i.e., the integration of GPS into all aspects

of geospatial technology.

• “beyond fusion”, “participatory sensing” and “visual analytics” as the underlying

techniques that optimize human use of spatial data

• NGA seeks experts in a visiting scientists program to advance knowledge with

regard to large and complex geospatial data sets, spatial statistics, data

mining and quantitative methods regarding human geography

• Pleiades Direct Tasking – is satellite software which provides companies with the

ability to control a satellite by Astrium

• Apps to provide satellite information for individual soldiers is becoming available

• The earth observation community could be seen to have ‘data overload’ -

Customers could seek to collect useable information rather than more

information, making advances in ground processing and product line may

become far more important than the satellites.

Source: http://www.innovative-analytics.com/PDF/IAT_DoC_Alternative_Futures_Commercial_Satellite_Imagery.pdf

Satellite Innovation• 3D imaging

There are a number of software packages which produce accurate point clouds for

3D analysis from imagery collected in flight missions by aeroplanes, helicopters,

UAVs, satellite imagery or terrestrial photography collected by mobile mapping

vehicles. Satellite imagining is especially useful for large scale images of the earth.

• KA-SAT and ViaSat-1

High-throughput satellites that seek to provide broadband Internet access to homes

and small offices at rates and speeds comparable to terrestrial alternatives. Ka-

band

satellites can dramatically lower the cost per bit of delivering a satellite service.

• Intelsat and SES , the mitigation of Galaxy-15

Collaboration between two leading satellite operators to prevent a perfect storm of

radio frequency interference over the US domestic arc.

Source: http://beta.geospatialworld.net/Paper/Cover-Stories/ArticleView.aspx?aid=30259 and http://www.sspi.org/?Industry_Innovators

Satellite Innovation• Inmarsat 4 Spacecraft

Inmarsat as the creative innovator and EADS Astrium as systems engineer and

project manager for the complex, multi-year effort to develop and launch the

Inmarsat-4 system of spacecraft

• Cisco Systems Internet Router in Space

Cisco Systems developed and placed into operation a hosted satellite payload

offering the ability to route IP traffic on the satellite, which eliminates the need to send

the data to and from an extra ground station to implement the circuit-switched

function.

• NASA Innovations in Space Communications and Robotic Operations Related

to the Deep Space Network, Mars Exploration and the Hubble Space Telescope

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration deep space communications and

robotics in support of Mars exploration programs and the reconditioned Hubble Space

Telescope. Source: http://www.sspi.org/?Industry_Innovators

Satellite Innovation: ion

propulsion units

• Expectation that satellites will be launched not with chemical thrusters to

manoeuvre them in space but with ion propulsion units.

• This means lighter satellites which allows That weight saving can either be given

over to more payload (transponders in the case of telecommunications

satellites), or allow the satellite to squeeze on to a smaller, cheaper rocket.

• Boeing has agreed to build four "all electric" telecommunications spacecraft for

Asian and Mexican operators.

SKYLON• SKYLON is an unpiloted, reusable spaceplane intended to provide reliable,

responsive and cost effective access to space pioneered by Reaction Engines

• The vehicle will be capable of transporting 15 tonnes of cargo into space.

• Because SKYLON is reusable (unlike current single-use space launchers) it can be

purchased by companies and nations that want space access in a manner similar to

current civil aircraft. As with aircraft, purchasing a vehicle will provide a much more

cost effective option than trying to develop an independent launcher system.

• The space industry is on a trajectory to reach $1bn per day in revenues within

the next few years – SKYLON sees itself as positioned to have the

• SKYLON will provide aircraft-like access to space to enable:

oOperation from runway to orbit and back

oOrder of magnitude reduction in cost vs. existing technology

o400 x improved reliability

oResponsive access to spaceSource: http://www.reactionengines.co.uk/space_skylon.html and http://www.theengineer.co.uk/sectors/aerospace/in-depth/skylon-and-sabre-your-questions-

answered/1014164.article

SKYLON

• SKYLON uses SABRE's combined air-breathing and rocket cycles that enables a

vehicle that can take off from a runway, fly direct to earth orbit and return for a

runway landing, just like an aircraft.

• SABRE engines can be configured specifically for space access, operating as a jet

in the atmosphere to accelerate up to a speed of Mach 5.5 and then transitioning to

rocket mode to accelerate beyond the atmosphere to orbital velocity, Mach 25.

• The SABRE engine is still around 6 years away from ground testing

• As the latitude of the spaceport will impact the mass that can be lifted to a given

orbit high volume cargo flights are likely to be launched at an equatorial spaceport

in a remote location.

Source: http://www.reactionengines.co.uk/space_skylon.html and http://www.theengineer.co.uk/sectors/aerospace/in-depth/skylon-and-sabre-your-questions-

answered/1014164.article

SKYLON• SKYLON will pursue multiple space launch markets including:

Telecoms: The delivery of payloads to low Earth orbit (LEO) which have an upper

stage attached to propel them to Geo-stationary orbit (GSO) for telecoms and other

markets which require GSO satellite launches. Once used it would be possible to

collect the upper stage for reuse on a future mission.

Multiple Small Satellites: SKYLON can launch multiple small satellites in a single

launch by installing a small payload carrier rack in the payload bay.

Personnel and Cargo: A specialised compartment can be installed in SKYLON

payload bay to carry people and cargo into space.

Space Station Supplies: SKYLON can link to space stations using a specially

designed interface allowing passengers and supplies to be delivered.

Orbital Infrastructure: SKYLON would be able to launch elements on in-orbit

infrastructure such as modules for future space stations, for space telescopes, for

planetary missions and for large satellites.

Source: http://www.reactionengines.co.uk/space_skylon.html

Crowdsourcing Drone Designs

• DARPA together with Space and Naval Warfare Systems Command ran a competition that

allowed the public (on a global scale) to come together in teams to design a small spy drone that

can fly for at least two hours.

• The Pentagon and its contractors are usually building big drones. Such drones are too costly and

too complicated to be used effectively by troops on the ground.

• The project was launched in April 2011. The requirements for the new drone design are: fitting in

a rucksack, taking off and landing vertically, being able to perch and stare (into a building).

Source:Popular Mechanics, http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/military/planes-uavs/darpas-uav-crowd-sourcing-contest#slide-4 (accessed 26/10/12)

Crowdsourcing Drone Designs

• More than 140 teams and 3,500 registered citizen scientists took part in the UAVForge challenge1.

• Independent governmental panels selected 10 finalists.

• The winning team will receive a $100,000 prize, a subcontract with a manufacturer to produce a

limited number of systems, and an invitation to demonstrate the winning UAV design solution1.

• Sharoharon Weinberger states in Popular Mechanics that UAVForge Challenge blends two things that

DARPA has championed in recent years – the use of open competitions and increasing reliance on the

power of social networks2.

Source:1UAV Forge: http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/military/planes-uavs/darpas-uav-crowd-sourcing-contest#slide-4 (accessed 26/10/12)2 Popular Mechanics, http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/military/planes-uavs/darpas-uav-crowd-sourcing-contest#slide-4 (accessed 26/10/12)

Drones Recognizing Arm Signals

• MIT researchers are devising a system that would allow robotic aircraft to

understand human arm gestures. The project is divided into 2 parts: 1) getting

the system to identify body poses within digital images; 2) identifying specific

gestures within a series of movements.

• First, videos for the study were recorded where different people demonstrated a

total of 24 gestures used commonly on aircraft carrier runways. The system

analyzes the person’s body pose in each frame. It then cross-references that

pose with each of the 24 possible gestures, and uses an algorithm to calculate

which gesture is most likely being made. The estimation process is then applied

to the string of poses that make up the whole sequence, and then to several

successive sequences. The accuracy rate of 76% is currently being improved.

Source: Gizmag, 14/03/2012:http://www.gizmag.com/drone-deck-crew-gesture-recognition/21832/(accessed 26/10/12)

Flying Gas Stations

• U.S. military flight tests have shown that drones could handle midair

refuelling by themselves, without human pilots. Tests were performed by

DARPA which recently flew two modified RQ-4 Global Hawk drones in close

proximity to simulate midair refuelling. The Hawks flew in formation with less

than 100 feet separating the refuelling "probe" on one and refuelling

"receiver" on the other during a two-and-a-half hour flight test.

• Neither Global Hawk drone needed human guidance during the final flight

test at the high altitude of 44,800 feet (8 miles). The drones also maintained

their tight formation despite turns and wind gusts of up to 23 mph.

• These finding raise the possibility of automated "flying gas stations" topping

off robotic aircraft in future battlefields.

Source: Yahoo, 07/10/12: http://in.news.yahoo.com/drones-could-soon-refuel-themselves-mid-air-091251644.html (accessed 26/10/12)

Flying Gas Stations

• DARPA’s Autonomous High-Altitude Refuelling (AHR) program ended in September 2012. Analysis of

final results reveal that 3 out of 5 aerial refuelling attempts were successful.

• The positive results would allow the U.S. military to extend the duration and range of its drone swarms.

• The U.S. military is also exploring other refuelling ideas for drones. For example, lasers could do

midair recharging for smaller, battery-powered drones, such as the Stalker drone flown by U.S. Special

Forces.

Source: Yahoo, 07/10/12: http://in.news.yahoo.com/drones-could-soon-refuel-themselves-mid-air-091251644.html (accessed 26/10/12)