Facing the Future

Kennedys Partners Retreat

December 2nd 2011

Rohit Talwar CEO - Fast Future Research

www.fastfuture.com rohit@fastfuture.com Twitter @fastfuture

Contents

Presentation p 3

About Fast Future p 50

Image Sources p 58

Driving Future Growth

Macro

Trends

Business /

IT Trends

Growth

Markets

Organisations Need to Work on

3 Horizons in Parallel

1-12 Months

Operational

Excellence

1-3 Years

Drive for

Growth

3-10 Years

Creating

the Future

Growth is not Guaranteed…

…Thinking is Back in Fashion

Transformational Change?

It’s Only Just Begun

The World in 2020

Demographic Destinies 2 billion more people in 40 years –

Demographics is Driving Economics

1998

448 691

729

5231

4157

739

1030

344

585

Source : United Nations 2010 2050

Life Redefined –

Lifespans are Increasing

Under 50’s have 90%

chance of living to 100.

Aubrey de Grey suggests

we could live to 500 or 1000

What are the health,

housing, consumption and

resource implications?

What kind of opportunities

will be created?

BCG’S 2011 Global Challengers

and Emeriti: Origin Countries 33

20

14

8 6

5 4

3 3 2 2

1 1 1 1 1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Source: Boston Consulting Group, January 2011

Service is the ‘Killer App’

Tackling Complexity

• Process

• Organisation

• Information /

Systems

• Regulatory

• Human

Complex Systems

Chaordic Systems

Mess

Think Like the Customer

e.g. Open Innovation

New Business Thinking

e.g. Ultra-Quick Construction

New Business Models - Auctions

£3088 £8791.50 £81

Access vs. Ownership

Telephony • Voice

• Messaging

• SIM card

• Phonebook

• Ring Tones

• Security

Connectivity • Cellular

• Up to 14 bands

• WLAN/BT

• GPS

• NFC

• FM

Data/

Enterprise • 100Mbps

• Email

• IMS

• Browsing

• VPN

• PIM

• Ecommerce

• Payments

Software • Protocols

• Middleware

• Applications

• User Interface

• Minimize fragmentation

Multimedia • Camera 8-16M

• Camcorder

• 24M Color Display

• Memory (160GB)

• Multiformat A/V • HD Video/TV out

• Games

(50-100M Tps)

• DRM

TMT – Convergence and Immersion

Next Generation Interfaces

Haptics / Holograms / Interactive Surfaces

Focus on Growth Industries

Rising Infrastructure Spending

• CIBC projects up to $35 trillion in public works by 2030 (1)

• Annual spend:

– North America $180Bn

– Europe $205Bn

– Asia $400Bn

– Africa $10Bn

Green Buildings - $600Bn by 2015

Airport Expansion by 2020

China from ~150 to 244

India from ~100 to 150

Opening Up Education

Green Transport Revolution

Reinventing Retail

Smart Grid - $500Bn+

Industrial Biotech - $650Bn+ by 2020

Source: Economist, June 2010

NBIC Convergence

Extending the Experience

The Slide@T3

Changi Airport - Singapore

Virtual Grocery Shopping –

Tesco South Korea

Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation

3D Printing

$1Tn+

What Client Strategies are

Emerging?

Where are the Opportunities?

• Networks

• Development

• Innovation

• Business Models

How can Leaders Respond?

Lead or Follow?

Make Time and Space for Change

Be Sticky and Magnetic

Create Tolerance of Uncertainty

Encourage Experimentation

Broad Scans and Deep Dives

Embrace Networks and

Associations

Encourage Curiosity

Conclusions – Winners

• Forward Looking

• Experimental

• Tolerant of Uncertainty

About Fast Future

Fast Future –

Core Services

• Live Events - Speeches, briefings and workshops for executive management and boards of governments, investment funds, development agencies , companies, airlines, airports, hotels, venues, CVB’s and associations

• Future Insights - Customised research on emerging trends, future scenarios, technologies and new markets

• Immersion - ‘Deep dives’ on future trends, market developments, emerging issues and technology advances

• Strategy - Development of strategies and business plans

• Innovation - Creation of business models and innovation plans

• Engagement - Consultancy and workshop facilitation

Fast Future • Research, consulting, speaking, leadership

• 5-20 year horizon - focus on ideas, developments, people,

trends and forces shaping the future

• Clients

– ING, ABN Amro, Laing O’Rourke

– Marks and Spencer

– Airports - Aeroports de Paris / Schiphol Group

– Vancouver Airport Services

– Industry Associations – ICCA, ASAE, PCMA, MPI

– Corporates - GE, Nokia, Pepsi, IBM, Intel, Orange,

O2, Siemens, Samsung, GSK, SAPE&Y, KPMG,

Amadeus, Sabre, Travelport, Travelex, ING,

Santander, Barclays, Citibank, DeutscheBank

– Governments - Dubai, Finland, Nigeria, Singapore,

UK, US

– Convention Bureaus – Seoul, Sydney, London, San

Francisco, Toronto, Abu Dhabi, Durban, Athens,

Slovenia, Copenhagen

– Convention Centres – Melbourne,

Adelaide, Qatar, QEIICC

– Hotels - Accor Group, Preferred,

– Intercontinental

– PCO’s - Congrex, Kenes

Rohit Talwar • Global futurist and founder of Fast Future Research.

• Award winning speaker on future insights and strategic

innovation – addressing leadership audiences in 40 countries on

5 continents

• Author of Designing Your Future

• Profiled by UK’s Independent Newspaper as one of the Top 10

Global Future Thinkers

• Led futures research, scenario planning and strategic

consultancy projects for clients in telecommunications,

technology, pharmaceuticals, banking, travel and tourism,

environment, food and government sectors

• Clients include 3M, BBC, BT, BAe, Bayer, Chloride, DTC De

Beers, DHL, EADS, Electrolux, E&Y, GE, Hoover, Hyundai, IBM,

ING, Intel, KPMG, M&S, Nakheel, Nokia, Nomura, Novartis,

OECD, Orange, Panasonic, Pfizer, PwC, Samsung, Shell,

Siemens, Symbian, Yell , numerous international associations

and governments agencies in the US, UK, Finland, Dubai,

Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Singapore.

• To receive Fast Future’s newsletters please email

rohit@fastfuture.com

• 50 key trends

• 100 emerging trends

• 10 major patterns of change

• Key challenges and choices for leaders

• Strategic decision making framework

• Scenarios for 2012

• Key futures tools and techniques

• Published August 2008

• Price £49.95 / €54.95/ $69.95

• Email invoice request to rohit@fastfuture.com

Designing Your Future Key Trends, Challenges and Choices

Our Services Bespoke research; Identification &

Analysis of Future Trends, Drivers &

Shocks

Accelerated Scenario

Planning, Timelining &

Future Mapping

Identification of

Opportunities for

Innovation and Strategic

Investment Strategy Creation &

Development of

Implementation

Roadmaps

Design & Facilitation of

Innovation, Incubation

& Venturing

Programmes

Expert Consultations &

Futures Think Tanks

Personal Futuring for

Leaders and Leadership

Teams

Public Speaking, In-

Company Briefings,

Seminars and

Workshops

Example Projects

• Public and private client research e.g. :

– Development of Market Scenarios, emerging trends and strategies for key clients

– Government and OECD Scenario Projects – e.g. Migration 2030, Future of Narcotics, Chemical Sector, Family 2030

– Scenarios for the global economy for 2030 and the implications for migration

– Designing Your Future (Published August 2008) – book written for the American Society of Association Executives & The Center for Association Leadership

– Global Economies – e.g. The Future of China – the Path to 2020

– The Shape of Jobs to Come – Emerging Science and Technology Sectors and Careers

– Winning in India and China

– The Future of Human Resources

– Exploiting the Future Potential of Social Media in UK Small to Medium Enterprises

– Convention 2020 – the Future of Business Events

– Future Convention Cities Initiative – Maximising Long-term Economic Impact of Events

– One Step Beyond – Future trends and challenges for the events industry

– Hotels 2020: Beyond Segmentation – Future Hotel Strategies

– The Future of Travel and Tourism in the Middle East – a Vision to 2020

– Future of Travel and Tourism Investment in Saudi Arabia

– Aviation and Airports e.g. Aviation 2030

Example Clients

Image Sources p1 Page

1. http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01016/BUSH-BINOCULARS_1016553i.jpg

3. http://www.wadefinancial.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/5-Big-Questions.jpg

4. Left to Right

http://www.guy-sports.com/fun_pictures/truck_art_pepsis_lg.jpg

http://www.automotive-insight.net/aston-martin-cars/pics/aston%20martin.jpg

http://www.kgwings.com/hawkeye/hawkeye05.jpg

5. http://www.piperreport.com/archives/Images/Medicare%20PFFS%20Plans.jpg

6. http://www.einstein.yu.edu/iphs/images/think_tank.jpg

7. http://creativeclass.typepad.com/thecreativityexchange/images/2007/12/01/global.jpg

8. Clockwise

http://www.etftrends.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/1_fullsize.jpg

http://blog.engglib2.upd.edu.ph/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/newsweek4.jpg

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4b3799e6-5e04-11df-8153-00144feab49a.html#axzz1LCUOTVNv

http://batonrouge.myhomecareblog.com/files/2011/07/active_seniors4.jpg

http://www.imperial-consultants.co.uk/files/biopharmaceuticals.jpg

http://www.nanotechnologyinvesting.us/images/nanotechnology-480.jpg

http://cdn.lightgalleries.net/4bd5ec0d18599/images/Cocoon_05-2.jpg

http://takemetoyourleader.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/010101.jpg

http://www.lostateminor.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/vertical_farming_1.jpg

12. http://www.tensator.com/blog/post/2011/01/31/London-Luton-Airport-Introduces-Two-New-Staff-Members-Holly-and-

Graham.aspx

13. http://freshpeel.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/Future_of_Work.jpg

14. http://encefalus.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/complexity.gif

15. http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2292/2338002596_4c08dc0b07.jpg

Image Sources p2

16. http://www.petervaldivia.com/technology/networks/image/internet-world.jpg

17. http://howardlindzon.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/global-financial-system2.jpg

19. http://images.gizmag.com/gallery_lrg/arkhotelchangsha.png

21. http://www.greensharecar.com.au/

22. http://www.reghardware.com/2010/08/11/video_rim_blackberry_torch_9800/

23. Clockwise

http://www.dexigner.com/news/22673

http://www.livetradingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/hp_3d_laptop.jpg

http://blog.core-ed.net/derekarchives/NokiaFanPhone.jpg

24. Left to Right

http://www.tuvie.com/wp-content/uploads/your-life-in-2020-frog-design1.jpg

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LYLNQSJkOcM/TMOyFH7Hv3I/AAAAAAAAACE/ISxznCcG6gw/s1600/SkinputImg1.jpg

http://www.flickr.com/photos/lukedebruijn/3991431571/

25. Left to Right

http://teamaltman.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/industry-and-data.jpg

http://picturesofcar.blogspot.com/2009/07/future-concept-car-pictures.html

http://www.technologylodging.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/food-biotechnology.jpg

26. http://www.ljlindhurst.com/images/highway.jpg

27. http://www.surfersvillage.com/gal/pictures/1215airplanes.jpg

28. http://www.patelsmith.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/11/village-classroom-1.jpg

29. Left to Right

http://www.topcarpictures.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/2009-brabus-tesla-roadster.jpg

http://solar.calfinder.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/electric-car-station.jpg

30. http:///karmatrendz.wordpress.com/2009/03/29/michelin-amazing-retail-store-interior-by-eventscape

Image Sources p3 31. http://smartgrid.epri.com/App_Themes/Default/Images/smart_grid_network_image.gif

32. http://www.celsias.com/media/uploads/admin/biofuel_1.jpg

33. http://hplusmagazine.com/sites/default/files/images/articles/jan10/nano-info1.jpg

34, Left to Right

http://www.instablogsimages.com/images/2007/10/09/design-concept-of-vertical-farming_5810.jpg

http://www.globalairportcities.com/images/stories/news2011/September/6dcinema.jpg

35. http://www.fastcodesign.com/1662241/wheeeeeee-slides-made-for-adults-in-dire-need-of-fun-video

36. http://trendshq.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/South-Korea-Virtual-Supermarket-on-Subway.jpg

37. Left to Right

http://protomag.com/statics/SU_06_jgrow_rtms_3697_a_sq.jpg

http://www.shockmd.com/wp-content/tms12.jpg

38. Left to Right

http://www.psfk.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/pic-rapid-prototyping-and-jewelry.png

http://www.fastcompany.com/1781551/prototype-of-worlds-first-3-d-printed-car-unveiled

http://www.treehugger.com/files/2010/10/on-demand-3d-printing-cut-waste-increase-efficiency.php

39. http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_9SlYS77Pdxg/SeqgR0hQBMI/AAAAAAAACDk/PLTRR4KWo-o/s400/entrepreneur2.gif

40. http://www.visualphotos.com/photo/2x4524045/businesswoman_on_ladder_looking_through_binoculars_bld005521.jpg

42. http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-

EJhAZaiyA8E/TfRRHfKzDMI/AAAAAAAAAGo/JmTQLz1z0xc/s320/6a00d8341c65c453ef010536d4981b970c-800wi.jpg

43. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/bigphotos/images/090305-daylight-saving-time-facts-history_big.jpg

44. http://www.ripleys.com/assets/img/upload/bions/magnet_man.jpg

45. Left to Right

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_MuWNJtJ8XS4/RwrvXTT4e4I/AAAAAAAABJc/pMnDJx06ZQA/s400/DuaneMichels.Uncertainty88.j

pg

http://embunpagi2009.files.wordpress.com/2009/02/seedling1.jpg

Image Sources p4

46. Left to Right

http://www.codeproject.com/KB/grid/DrawingRadarDisplayWithCS/Radar1.jpg

http://www.realmscuba.com/Logos/Dive%20Course/group%20underwater.jpg

47. Outside In

http://www.masternewmedia.org/images/social_network_id469214_size440.jpg

http://i36.tinypic.com/vrxzll.jpg

48. http://www.insidefurniture.com/.a/6a00d834519a9e69e2010536a3c860970b-800wi

49. http://www.oytun.co.uk/wp-content/themes/mimbo2/images//innovation.jpg