rohit talwar - hr 2020 - aesc - november 17th 2011
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Rohit Talwar's presentation on the future of HR to the 15th Annual AESC Conference on London.TRANSCRIPT
HR 2020 People Leadership in Turbulent Times and the Impact on
Senior Executive Recruitment and Representation
15th Annual AESC Conference - London
November 17th 2011
Rohit Talwar CEO - Fast Future Research
www.fastfuture.com [email protected] Twitter @fastfuture
Contents
Presentation p. 3
About Fast Future p. 62
Image Sources p. 70
Driving Future Growth
Business
Trends
HR 2020 Core
Skills
Organisations Need to Work on
3 Horizons in Parallel
1-12 Months
Operational
Excellence
1-3 Years
Drive for
Growth
3-10 Years
Creating
the Future
Growth is not Guaranteed…
…Thinking is Back in Fashion
Transformational Change?
It’s Only Just Begun
The World in 2015
Demographic Destinies 2 billion more people in 40 years –
Demographics is Driving Economics
1998
448 691
729
5231
4157
739
1030
344
585
Source : United Nations 2010 2050
Life Redefined –
Lifespans are Increasing
Under 50’s have 90%
chance of living to 100.
Aubrey de Grey suggests
we could live to 500 or 1000
What are the health,
housing, consumption and
resource implications?
What kind of opportunities
will be created?
BCG’S 2011 Global Challengers
and Emeriti: Origin Countries 33
20
14
8 6
5 4
3 3 2 2
1 1 1 1 1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Source: Boston Consulting Group, January 2011
Service is the ‘Killer App’
Tackling Complexity
• Process
• Organisation
• Information /
Systems
• Regulatory
• Human
Think Like the Customer
e.g. Open Innovation
New Business Thinking
e.g. Ultra-Quick Construction
New Business Models - Auctions
£3088 £8791.50 £81
Access vs. Ownership
Telephony • Voice
• Messaging
• SIM card
• Phonebook
• Ring Tones
• Security
Connectivity • Cellular
• Up to 14 bands
• WLAN/BT
• GPS
• NFC
• FM
Data/
Enterprise • 100Mbps
• IMS
• Browsing
• VPN
• PIM
• Ecommerce
• Payments
Software • Protocols
• Middleware
• Applications
• User Interface
• Minimize fragmentation
Multimedia • Camera 8-16M
• Camcorder
• 24M Color Display
• Memory (160GB)
• Multiformat A/V • HD Video/TV out
• Games
(50-100M Tps)
• DRM
TMT – Convergence and Immersion
Next Generation Interfaces
Haptics / Holograms / Interactive Surfaces
Focus on Growth Industries
Rising Infrastructure Spending
• CIBC projects up to $35 trillion in public works by 2030 (1)
• Annual spend:
– North America $180Bn
– Europe $205Bn
– Asia $400Bn
– Africa $10Bn
Green Buildings - $600Bn by 2015
Airport Expansion by 2020
China from ~150 to 244
India from ~100 to 150
Opening Up Education
Green Transport Revolution
Extending the Experience
The Slide@T3
Changi Airport - Singapore
Virtual Grocery Shopping –
Tesco South Korea
3D Printing
$1Tn+
The Evolving HR Agenda
Barriers to HR Effectiveness over
the next decade
Lack of
business and
strategic
understanding
in the HR
function
46%
Failure to
attract,
develop, retain
and reward
suitable talent
at all levels
46%
Emphasis on
cost cutting
over people
development
43%
Corporate
culture not
valuing
talent
development
39%
Maximising HR's Contribution -
Critical Roles
61%
44%
37% 35% 34% 31%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Becoming a strategic partner,
coach and mentor and developing HR
as a source of competitive advantage
Acquiring, developing and retaining talent
Managing change and cultural
transformation
Individualisation and personalisation of
HR services to meet the differing needs
of leaders, managers and
employees
Addressing the demographic
challenges of a global and multi-
generational workforce
Becoming a learning organization
Strategic Priorities for HR
Aligning HR / talent and
business strategies 73%
Nurturing engagement /
commitment 58%
Developing clear HR
strategy 51% Developing global model
for people & skills 49%
Leadership and Management
Development
Managing, motivating /
integrating a multi
generational workforce 58%
Build management /
leadership capability to
manage an increasingly
global /diverse workforce 57%
Help management and
leadership to work in a
flat structure 49%
Supporting Employees
Maximising individual talent, competence,
commitment, and contribution 56%
Building and sustaining employee
trust and engagement
Helping employees find a sense of
purpose and meaning in their work
43%
39%
Performance Management -
Maximising Employee Contribution
Supporting lifelong learning -
continuous re-skilling 61%
Implementing real-time learning /
development solutions 49%
Improving training / delivery
effectiveness 40%
Operational Delivery Priorities
Consistent / Auditable
Process & Policy Execution
Supporting self-organising and
self-directed teams
Cost control Managing business risks
50% 48%
41% 41%
Organisation Design and Culture
Facilitating alignment between
strategy and organizational
design, culture, values and
ethics 65%
Developing organizational
capacity to respond quickly /
adapt to change 60%
Redesigning organizational
structures to ensure flexibility /
responsiveness 48%
Ensuring HR policies can support
boundaryless org models 42%
HR Technology Priorities
Enabling the workforce to stay
‘connected’ in remote locations
Enabling ‘self-service’ by
managers and employees
Providing up to date employee-
centred information
Using social media based communications
internally to drive engagement / retention
52% 47%
40% 38%
Outsourcing HR – Prime Candidates
Education, training &
development 55%
Compensation & benefits
administration 51%
Employee administration 46%
Management of the HR Function
Anticipating key
trends and
developments that
could impact HR and
talent related issues
in the organisation
Building a deep
understanding of
business in general
and of their own
organisation in
particular
Developing HR as an
effective partner,
coach and mentor to
the business
58% 50% 50%
Where are the Opportunities?
• Networks
• Development
• Representation
• Business Models
How can Leaders Respond?
Lead or Follow?
Make Time and Space for Change
Be Sticky and Magnetic
Create Tolerance of Uncertainty
Encourage Experimentation
Broad Scans and Deep Dives
Embrace Networks and
Associations
Encourage Curiosity
Conclusions – Future Leaders
• Forward Looking
• Experimental
• Tolerant of Uncertainty
About Fast Future
Fast Future –
Core Services
• Live Events - Speeches, briefings and workshops for executive management and boards of governments, investment funds, development agencies , companies, airlines, airports, hotels, venues, CVB’s and associations
• Future Insights - Customised research on emerging trends, future scenarios, technologies and new markets
• Immersion - ‘Deep dives’ on future trends, market developments, emerging issues and technology advances
• Strategy - Development of strategies and business plans
• Innovation - Creation of business models and innovation plans
• Engagement - Consultancy and workshop facilitation
Fast Future • Research, consulting, speaking, leadership
• 5-20 year horizon - focus on ideas, developments, people,
trends and forces shaping the future
• Clients
– ING, ABN Amro, Laing O’Rourke
– Marks and Spencer
– Airports - Aeroports de Paris / Schiphol Group
– Vancouver Airport Services
– Industry Associations – ICCA, ASAE, PCMA, MPI
– Corporates - GE, Nokia, Pepsi, IBM, Intel, Orange,
O2, Siemens, Samsung, GSK, SAPE&Y, KPMG,
Amadeus, Sabre, Travelport, Travelex, ING,
Santander, Barclays, Citibank, DeutscheBank
– Governments - Dubai, Finland, Nigeria, Singapore,
UK, US
– Convention Bureaus – Seoul, Sydney, London, San
Francisco, Toronto, Abu Dhabi, Durban, Athens,
Slovenia, Copenhagen
– Convention Centres – Melbourne,
Adelaide, Qatar, QEIICC
– Hotels - Accor Group, Preferred,
– Intercontinental
– PCO’s - Congrex, Kenes
Rohit Talwar • Global futurist and founder of Fast Future Research.
• Award winning speaker on future insights and strategic
innovation – addressing leadership audiences in 40 countries on
5 continents
• Author of Designing Your Future
• Profiled by UK’s Independent Newspaper as one of the Top 10
Global Future Thinkers
• Led futures research, scenario planning and strategic
consultancy projects for clients in telecommunications,
technology, pharmaceuticals, banking, travel and tourism,
environment, food and government sectors
• Clients include 3M, BBC, BT, BAe, Bayer, Chloride, DTC De
Beers, DHL, EADS, Electrolux, E&Y, GE, Hoover, Hyundai, IBM,
ING, Intel, KPMG, M&S, Nakheel, Nokia, Nomura, Novartis,
OECD, Orange, Panasonic, Pfizer, PwC, Samsung, Shell,
Siemens, Symbian, Yell , numerous international associations
and governments agencies in the US, UK, Finland, Dubai,
Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Singapore.
• To receive Fast Future’s newsletters please email
• 50 key trends
• 100 emerging trends
• 10 major patterns of change
• Key challenges and choices for leaders
• Strategic decision making framework
• Scenarios for 2012
• Key futures tools and techniques
• Published August 2008
• Price £49.95 / €54.95/ $69.95
• Email invoice request to [email protected]
Designing Your Future Key Trends, Challenges and Choices
Our Services Bespoke research; Identification &
Analysis of Future Trends, Drivers &
Shocks
Accelerated Scenario
Planning, Timelining &
Future Mapping
Identification of
Opportunities for
Innovation and Strategic
Investment Strategy Creation &
Development of
Implementation
Roadmaps
Design & Facilitation of
Innovation, Incubation
& Venturing
Programmes
Expert Consultations &
Futures Think Tanks
Personal Futuring for
Leaders and Leadership
Teams
Public Speaking, In-
Company Briefings,
Seminars and
Workshops
Example Projects
• Public and private client research e.g. :
– Development of Market Scenarios, emerging trends and strategies for key clients
– Government and OECD Scenario Projects – e.g. Migration 2030, Future of Narcotics, Chemical Sector, Family 2030
– Scenarios for the global economy for 2030 and the implications for migration
– Designing Your Future (Published August 2008) – book written for the American Society of Association Executives & The Center for Association Leadership
– Global Economies – e.g. The Future of China – the Path to 2020
– The Shape of Jobs to Come – Emerging Science and Technology Sectors and Careers
– Winning in India and China
– The Future of Human Resources
– Exploiting the Future Potential of Social Media in UK Small to Medium Enterprises
– Convention 2020 – the Future of Business Events
– Future Convention Cities Initiative – Maximising Long-term Economic Impact of Events
– One Step Beyond – Future trends and challenges for the events industry
– Hotels 2020: Beyond Segmentation – Future Hotel Strategies
– The Future of Travel and Tourism in the Middle East – a Vision to 2020
– Future of Travel and Tourism Investment in Saudi Arabia
– Aviation and Airports e.g. Aviation 2030
Example Clients
Image Sources p.1 Page
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Image Sources p.3
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