UNU-IAS Working Paper No. 162

Role of Land Use Planning Policies

For Urban Environmental Management:

Lessons from the City of Yokohama, Japan

Noriko Kono

March 2010

Role of Land Use Planning Policies

For Urban Environmental Management:

Lessons from the City of Yokohama, Japan

Abstract

Reducing transport sector emissions through changes in land use planning and modal shifts is one of the most important trends in environmental policy making in the present world. Numerous research projects have articulated the close relationship between gaseous emissions and land use planning, and many researchers have shown that land use and modal split variables can accurately predict gaseous emissions from the transport sector. Moreover, land use transportation models begun in 1960s are now thriving because of new needs for predicting the impact of global environmental challenges. This research aims to contribute to the mitigation of greenhouse gases (GHG) in urban areas by providing a model that can test the impacts of land use planning and modal shift policies. The research uses a modified version of a land use transportation model developed in Japan. The model uses microeconomic ideas and determines the trip and location changes for three main actors (households, service industry, and other industries). This paper explains the following parts of this study: 1) Land Use/Transportation Planning and Environmental Concerns; 2) Gaseous Emissions in the Cities of the Asia-Pacific; 3) Impact of Urban Gaseous Emissions on Biodiversity; 4) Case Study: the City of Yokohama; 5) Methods and Results; and 6) Conclusions. In particular, this paper analyzes the case study in terms of the qualitative information providing a base for modelling. The city of Yokohama, Japan, is used for the modelling because of its positive attitude towards urban planning, extensive spatial and transportation data, and competitive edge in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area (TMA). The data used include the most recent version of a TMA person trip survey and the corresponding socio-economic and demographic data from the same period of time. The research tested two policies selected from the qualitative data: public transit promotion, as Yokohama owns its subways and has cooperated with private railway companies; and car restraining policies, which were already introduced through the annual event, Car Free Day, a largely grass-roots initiative. The study illustrated that these policies can reduce GHGs by encouraging people to adopt more environmentally sustainable modes and relocating the actors to high dense neighbourhoods. The model results showed 1.3% and 13.0% reduction respectively in emissions resulting from the policy changes. The results of this study can be useful for cities of the Non-Annex I countries

1 in the

Asia-Pacific region, which are not required to address GHG mitigation presently. The study promotes local-level policy making in the developing world to establish a framework for GHG mitigation.

1 Non-Annex I countries: Countries which are not required to reduce emissions for the first Kyoto Protocol

period.

Table of Contents

1. Land Use/Transportation Planning and Environmental Concerns ............................. 1

2. Gaseous Emissions in the Cities of the Asia-Pacific ................................................. 3

3. Impact of Gaseous Emissions over Biodiversity ....................................................... 4

4. Case Study: the City of Yokohama ............................................................................ 5

4.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 5

4.2 Quantitative Data Collection ................................................................................... 6

4.3 Qualitative Data Collections ................................................................................... 8

4.4 Outline of Yokohama ............................................................................................... 8

4.4.1 Demographics and History ............................................................................... 8

4.4.2 Planning Department ...................................................................................... 12

4.4.3 Peoples’ Movement and Transportation .......................................................... 13

4.4.4 Environmental Condition ................................................................................ 14

4.4.5 Eco Model City for the Low Carbon Society ................................................. 18

4.4.6 Yokohama Climate Change Action Policy Co-Do 30 ..................................... 19

4.4.7 Graying of Population and Environmental Burden ........................................ 21

4.4.8 Two Policies Highlighted ................................................................................ 22

5. Methods and Results ................................................................................................ 22

5.1 Overview of the Model .......................................................................................... 22

5.2 Transportation Model ............................................................................................ 23

5.3 Economic Model ................................................................................................... 28

5.4 GHG Emissions Calibrations ................................................................................ 29

5.5 Change of GHG Emissions ................................................................................... 30

6. Conclusions .............................................................................................................. 31

1

1. Land Use/Transportation Planning and Environmental Concerns

Environmental concerns have played a central role in the history of urban planning. The roots

of modern urban planning began in the middle of the Industrial Revolution (Wolfe, 1981). It

was mainly a social movement to improve living standards of working class people, from

unhygienic and overcrowded conditions to livable and humanized ones. Therefore, academics

and practitioners in urban planning were destined to consider environmental and health issues

from the very beginning of modern planning history and it is natural that environmental

issues remain a current urban planning concern.

There have been a number of attempts in which environmental concerns have been integrated

in the field of urban planning in recent decades. For example, sustainable development has

become a key issue in urban planning after the release of the report Our Common Futures by

the United Nations World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED) in 1987.

Many urban planners discuss sustainability in relation to cities, regarding what form it should

take, what structures it requires, and what kind of institutions are appropriate for

implementation. The “three Es” of sustainable development, economic, ecology and equity,

are now often taken for granted in contemporary developments (Berke, Godshalk, and Kaiser,

2006).

Social scientists currently pursuing studies relevant to the future of society cannot avoid

accounting for climate change issues. In the field of urban planning, climate change is one of

the most important issues to consider when planning for and discussing cities. For example,

the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) has promoted the smart growth

concept for combating climate change since the 1990s. The European Environmental Agency

(EEA) proposed the compact city idea to address global environmental challenges in the

2000s.

Most of these policies from developed countries highlight the negative impacts of past

planning practices on the environment, such as reckless greenfield2 development and auto

dependency. They further reinforce the importance of planning more compact and

human-scaled developments, promoting public transit, and introducing urban designs

oriented towards pedestrian friendliness and non-motorized transport.

Simultaneously, climate change specialists realized the importance of urban planning and city

efforts to address climate change issues. For example, Cities and Climate Change by

Bulkeley and Betsill (2003) highlights the responsibility of cities to address climate change

2 Greenfield development: A type of development which expands to untouched or underdeveloped lands.

Antonym: brownfield development.

2

issues and fill the gaps the national or supra-national levels of discourse on climate change

discussions. Bulkeley and Betsill (2003) provide good examples of how city governance

advocates help cities solve global environmental problems. One of the most notable examples

is the Cities for Climate Protection (CCP) program started by the International Council for

Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI) in 1993. The CCP is based on Agenda 21, a set of

proposals for sustainable development for the furtherance of world-wide proposed at UN

Conference on Environment and Development in 1992, and it has been a useful tool for

assisting local governments to deal with climate change issues.

In CCP, a city develops a Local Action Plan through a multi-stakeholder process that

describes the policies and measures the local government will take to reduce greenhouse gas

emissions and achieve its emissions reduction target. Therefore, it is easy to include urban

planning policy measures in each local action plan. Typical policies implemented include

energy efficiency improvements to municipal buildings and water treatment facilities,

streetlight retrofits, and public transit improvements.

Similar to climate change caused by anthropogenic activities, biodiversity has been lost

tremendously all over the world after industrial revolution due to the mass and rapid invasion

of human activities to natural habitats. Urgent efforts to protect the species richness should be

planned through many different aspects. Here also, urban planning should play a central role

to preserve the habitats for flora and fauna. For example, instead of planning dispersed,

automobile dependent, suburban type development, planners can propose some brownfield

infill developments3 in the Central Business District (CBD)

4 areas which are dense, compact

and independent from automobile reach. By doing so, the variety of habitats in the greenfield

surrounding the urban area is preserved and human beings can avoid further assault to the

precious ecosystem.

To summarize, urban planning is a discipline that highlights relevant approaches to

environmental issues, and for which there is currently a large demand to solve global

environmental challenges such as climate change. Therefore, the work of urban planners and

urban specialists should reflect provisions for climate change issues. Local governance and

climate change specialists sense that cities are essential players in tackling climate change

issues to develop solutions for these problems. This research responds to cities' pressing need

for implementing effective local-level climate change policies.

3 Brownfield development: A type of infill development which is in abandoned or underused industrial and

commercial facilities. Antonym: greenfield development

4 CBD: Abbreviation of Central Business District. An activity centre of a city which contains retail and

commercial buildings as well as a business centre.

3

2. Gaseous Emissions in the Cities of the Asia-Pacific

This section discusses the present rapid and intense urbanization in the Asia-Pacific region

and the resultant serious environmental degradation. This condition provides the basis for the

relevancy of Yokohama’s case to the present world.

Asian urban population occupies a large portion of the entire world’s urban population. In the

1960s, the urban population of Asia accounted for 35% － about 350 million people － of the

estimated 1 billion world total (Figure 2.1). In 2020, the total global urban population is

estimated to reach 4.1 billion, accounting for 56% of the total world population. It is

predicted that 2.1 billion of that total will be composed of the Asian urban population, which

will make up 52% of the world’s urban population (UN Population Division, 2005).

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

1960 1980 2000 2020

Rest of the worldurban population

Asian urbanpopulation

65.2

59.6

52.5

48.1

34.8 40.447.5

51.9

(Million)

Figure 2. 1 Asian urban population trend

Source: United Nations DESA Population Divisions (UNPD), 2005

Urbanization enabled regions to increase economic living standards by offering people

alternative income earning activities apart from agricultural ones (World Bank, 2009), and

this in itself is a favourable phenomenon from both a social and economic point of view.

However, presently the cities in these countries are not only the places that contain a vast

amount of utility, provide higher wages, and produce goods and services, but also that emit

massive quantities of waste and pollutants which affect both the cities themselves and their

adjacent areas.

Dealing with GHG emissions from urban areas is one of the most controversial issues facing

present society, as the impact from this issue is at the global level. Figure 2.2 shows the world

GHG emissions by country in 2004. Four Asian countries, China, Japan, India, and South

Korea, ranked among the top 13 countries, accounting for more than 70% of total emissions

of the Asia-Pacific countries, and four countries produce more than 30% of the world’s total

emissions (The Energy Data and Modeling Center, 2007). With the rapid economic and urban

growth in China and India, the region will most likely continue to be the largest contributor to

the world’s GHG emissions.

4

Canada

2%

Others

29%

US

22%

Germany

3%

UK

2%

India

4%

China

18%

Russia

6%Japan

5%South Korea

2%

Italy

2%

Mexico

2%

France

2%

Australia

1%

Figure 2. 2 World CO2 emissions by country in 2004

Source: The Energy Data and Modeling Center, 2007

Researchers have pointed out that climate change affects Asia in many ways. Sari (2008)

asserts that climate change is strongly correlated with poverty and will severely affect poor

people in Asia. He points out that the series of events caused by climate change may delay the

attainment of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).

A publication by International Energy Agency (IEA), titled The Road from Kyoto - Current

CO2 and Transport Policies in the IEA, indicates that the carbon dioxide emissions from the

movement of people and goods grow at a faster pace than for other sectors (IEA, 2006). Data

on global CO2 emissions from fuel combustion shows that transport sector emissions have

increased in almost all countries since 1971 (IEA, 2006). Heywood (2006) argues that the

IEA estimate is an underestimate and that transport sector emissions could total one-fourth of

all GHG emissions.

3. Impact of Gaseous Emissions over Biodiversity

This section highlights the relationships between the gaseous pollutants and the loss of

biodiversity. Presently, increased attention to the interactions among atmospheric pollutions

and biodiversity has been witnessed in research. In particular, the effects that these pollutants

have on the loss of plant biodiversity are enormous, and air quality control as a co-benefit of

GHG mitigation is important to maintain richness in the earth’s species. For example, a team

of biologists investigated the impacts of SO2 on vascular plants in Finland (Zvereva, et al.,

2008). They proved the conventional wisdom that the pollutants decrease the species’

richness of vascular plants. They also found that there are some different trends depending on

Total: 26.5 billion

tons

5

the differences between the warmer climates and types of pollutants.

Italian researchers focused on the damage to epiphytic lichens caused by geothermal air

pollution to the country’s mountainous areas (Loppi, et al., 2006). The mercury

concentrations in lichen samples are often measured to monitor the release of airborne

pollutants from the industrial exploitation of geothermal resources in the Mt. Amiata area. By

measuring the accumulated mercury (Hg) in lichen thalli, the researchers can estimate mean

Hg and HgS concentrations in the air. They found that from the level of the growth of

epiphytic lichens, and concluded that HgS is responsible for the worsening biodiversity of

epiphytic lichens.

Phoenix et al. (2006) revealed the impact of atmospheric nitrogen deposition in the world on

biodiversity hotspots. They found that the average deposition rate across these areas was

50 % greater than the global terrestrial average in the mid-1990s. They also assert that by

2050, the average deposition rate could be doubled, with 33 out of 34 hot spots receiving

greater nitrogen deposition.

Having seen the obvious connections between the rampant air pollutants and loss of

biodiversity, urgent policies are needed to solve these issues world-wide. Researchers found

that controlling air pollutants has co-benefit effects for GHG mitigation (Castillo et al., 2007).

Eventually, it helps the preservation of richness of species.

In addition, it is also important to note that land use planning can protect the areas where a

variety of species live. Instead of planning communities that destroy greenfields, urban

planners need to consider the brownfield development, dense land use, and more

environmentally sustainable transport (EST) accommodating urban designs. In this context,

this research has a huge demand in the present world, when people are becoming extremely

conscious about protecting the species’ richness that has been lost as a result of the

industrialization and the motorization of the world.

4. Case Study: the City of Yokohama

4.1 Introduction

Yokohama is a popular place to live in Japan with its proximity to Tokyo, its cosmopolitan

image, and its abundance of nature. For example, Yokohama was ranked first in the “Most

Popular City for Living in Japan” Contest in 2007 by nearly 220,000 people (Seikatsu Guide,

2008). Furthermore, it has successfully revitalised its waterfront, the Minato Mirai 21 district,

which contains the nation’s most popular commercial facilities, parks and tourist spots.

The case study area was selected for three reasons:

6

1. History of urban planning and a positive approach

Yokohama is considered to have some of the most advanced urban planning in Japan. Its

long-term plans since 1965 have made steady progress and the city has attained some of its

major goals, such as establishing a new CBD for the local work force, creating an attractive

waterfront area, establishing easy access to the industrial areas, providing high quality

residential areas, and so on. The planning processes will be explained in more details in

section 4.4.1.

2. Ample data in transportation, economics, spaces and demography

Yokohama boasts of its extensive data collection derived from its continuous efforts to pursue

advanced-level city planning. The city is the first municipality in Japan which tried to

standardise all spatial data (land use, roads, buildings, open space, sewage, water provision,

waste management facilities etc.) into ArcGIS software by Environmental Systems Research

Institute, Inc. (ESRI). Additionally, the transportation data is rich because the national

government always has maintained an interest in planning for the Tokyo Metropolitan Area,

of which Yokohama is a part. The person trip (PT) data of Yokohama is detailed in zones,

modes, and trip types. The city level data is rich enough in detail to carry out complex

research on transportation analysis for the purposes of this dissertation.

Having outlined the reasons for selection of the city in this case study, this section provides

an overview and describes particular aspects of the city. Moreover, it leads to the effective

and reasonable modelling that is useful to policy making.

3. Competitive edge in the TMA area

The Tokyo Metropolitan Area (TMA) is the world’s largest urban agglomeration and the

municipality of Tokyo itself is one of the world’s five largest cities. To learn from the

experience of Tsukuba model, an ideal area should not only be a large city, but it should also

be adjacent to Tokyo. Yokohama is thus selected, as it is the second biggest municipality in

Japan.

4.2 Quantitative Data Collection

The quantitative data employed are all obtained from the following secondary sources: the

Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transportation (MLIT), the Ministry of Internal Affairs

and Communications (MIAC), the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) and

the city of Yokohama (COY). The two pieces of major data are:

MLIT Person trip (PT) data and origin destination (OD) survey data for the Tokyo

Metropolitan Area (TMA) in 1998 (the latest version as of 2009); and

7

Block-level economic data from the MIAC, the NIES and the COY

The Tokyo Metropolitan Area (TMA) person trip survey has been performed every 10 years

since 1968. The purpose of the PT survey is to understand people’s daily activities and the

data provide fundamental information for revising transportation planning and urban planning.

Although the 2008 survey was recently completed, the data will be released to the public later

in 2010. Therefore, as of 2009, the 1998 survey provides the most recent data.

This survey is administered in the 80 km radius of the centre of Tokyo (Table 4.1). It includes

the prefectures of Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama, Chiba, and the south of Ibaraki prefecture,

which together sum to a night time population of 34 million people. The collection rate of the

written survey distributed to each household in the census tract for this region is 71.5 percent.

Of the possible sample of 1,235,883 people in 1998, there are 883,044 respondents aged 5

years and older in this region. Thus, the sample rate for the region is 2.68 percent.

Table 4. 1 Results of the Person Trip Survey (Most recent version available as of 2009.10)

Population 5 year old

or older

Surveys

Sent

Respondent

s

Ibaraki Prefecture 1,544,760 1,469,103 51,933 42,828

Saitama Prefecture 6,893,102 6,548,796 242,340 189,487

Chiba Prefecture 5,006,952 4,774,137 168,853 140,533

Tokyo 11,850,311 11,369,346 388,518 258,873

Kanagawa (excluding

Yokohama/Kawasaki) 3,764,503 3,585,558 152,610 102,432

Yokohama 3,346,785 3,187,158 148,242 91,585

Kawasaki 1,207,985 1,146,832 52,037 33,292

Chiba Prefecture 856,977 815,775 31,251 24,014

All areas 34,471,375 32,896,705 1,235,769 883,044

Source: Committee for Transportation in Tokyo Metropolitan Area, 1998

The neighbourhood’s economic data is the finest level of data available in Japan. These data

include demographic information, such as population by gender, age and household types,

and socio-economic information, such as labour force size by industrial sector, average

income, and price of land.

8

4.3 Qualitative Data Collections

The qualitative data employed in this analysis is obtained via interviews with relevant

specialists, including government officials of the City of Yokohama, private consultants,

academics, members of research institutes and NGOs. Between 2008 and 2009, 14 individuals

were interviewed (Table 4.2). The results of these interviews are important, as they

determined the designated zones for the model, concrete geographical target areas for

development and conservation over the next 50 years, the land use policies relevant to the

model, and the policies towards adjacent municipalities.

Table 4. 2 List of interviewees

Date Organization Interviewee

June 11th

, 2008

October 15th

, 2008

Urban Management Office (Toshikeiei-

senryaku-shitu), COY

Urban Administrating Office, COY

(Toshi-seibikyoku)

Mr. Masato Nobutoki

Mr. Tomoyuki Suzuki

October 27th

, 2008

Urban Design Office, COY

(Toshi-design shitsu)

Mr. Yasuyuki Akimoto

Mr. Yu Katsura

October 29th

, 2008 Urban Administrating Office, COY

(Toshi seibikyoku)

Mr. Keisuke Matsui

Mr. Takashi Sasai

October 29th

, 2008 Institute for Behavioral Science (IBS) Mr. Jun Morio

November 12th

, 2008 Climate Mitigation Office, COY Ms. Miyuki Kuroda

December 6th

, 2008 Integrated Research and Development Co.,

LTD

Mr. Hirotake Takata

December 18th

, 2008 Tokyo University Professor Jun Hato

February 16th

, 2009 Global Carbon Project Dr. Shobhakar Dhakal

May 1st, 2009 ICLEI Japan Ms. Michie Kishigami

July 28th

, 2009 Minato Mirai 21 Corporation Mr. Hiroshi Kishida

Occasional meetings National Institute of Environmental Studies

(NIES)

Dr. Yoshiki Yamagata

Occasional meetings GOGA, Inc. Dr. Jinya Nakamura

4.4 Outline of Yokohama

4.4.1 Demographics and History

Yokohama became a bedroom community5 for Tokyo after World War II (WWII). In 1978,

the city surpassed Osaka to become the second largest in Japan after Tokyo. The population

during the economic boom (beginning in the 1960s) increased notably (Figure 4.1). Recently,

5 A bedroom community is a community where many commuters live. A suburb.

9

however, the population has been levelling off. According to the National Population Census,

in 2009, Yokohama had a population of 3.66 million.

Figure 4.1: Population of Yokohama (1965-2008)

Source: City of Yokohama 2009

Yokohama’s aging population is a concern, but it is not as serious of an issue as it is for other

areas of Japan. Figure 4.2 shows the trend in the greying of the population. The population of

65-year-olds and above has risen enormously in 35 years, while the population of

15-year-olds and under has remained almost constant. Compared to the “All Japan” figure,

overall, Yokohama has a younger population.

Figure 4.2 Percent of population of Yokohama by age (1965-2005)

Source: City of Yokohama 2009

10

Big cities like Yokohama have sub-municipal structures called wards. There are 18 wards in

the city of Yokohama (Table 4.3). The densest wards are the Minami-ward (15,564),

Nishi-ward (13,261), Konan-ward (11,157), and Kohoku-ward (10,340). The least dense

wards are Izumi (6,587), Sakae (6,725), Kanazawa (6,849), and Midori (6,900).

Table 4. 3 Density by Ward (2008)

Household Population Household Area Density

All Male Female Average person (km2) (person/km2)

All city 1,577,251 3,671,611 1,842,876 1,828,735 2.33 434.98 8441

Tsurumi 123,183 270,577 140,747 129,830 2.2 32.38 8356

Kanagawa 111,519 229,855 117,716 112,139 2.06 23.59 9744

Nishi 47,704 92,951 46,830 46,121 1.95 6.98 13317

Naka 76,310 146,412 77,161 69,251 1.92 20.62 7100

Minami 92,214 197,175 98,207 98,968 2.14 12.63 15612

Konan 89,470 221,738 110,501 111,237 2.48 19.86 11165

Hodogaya 90,125 206,009 103,140 102,869 2.29 21.81 9446

Asahi 100,350 249,140 123,210 125,930 2.48 32.78 7600

Isogo 71,574 163,761 80,953 82,808 2.29 19.02 8610

Kanazawa 87,024 210,298 103,990 106,308 2.42 30.68 6855

Kohoku 152,130 325,572 165,390 160,182 2.14 31.37 10378

Midori 71,084 175,942 87,477 88,465 2.48 25.42 6921

Aoba 120,129 302,633 149,896 152,737 2.52 35.06 8632

Tsuzuki 75,048 198,294 100,200 98,094 2.64 27.88 7112

Totsuka 109,333 273,506 136,248 137,258 2.5 35.7 7661

Sakae 50,677 125,248 61,676 63,572 2.47 18.55 6752

Izumi 59,488 155,629 76,669 78,960 2.62 23.56 6606

Seya 49,889 126,871 62,865 64,006 2.54 17.11 7415

Source: City of Yokohama, 2009

As Japan's second largest city, with a population of over 3.6 million, Yokohama is located to

the south of Tokyo CBD, and is the capital of Kanagawa Prefecture. In 1859, towards the

end of the Edo Period (1603-1867), during which Japan maintained a policy of national

isolation, the Port of Yokohama was one of the first to be opened to foreign trade.

Consequently, Yokohama quickly grew from a small fishing village into one of Japan's major

cities.

During WWII, Yokohama’s development slowed and went into a major decline. The

population decreased from 860,000 to 620,000 in 1939 due to the conscription of men and the

11

evacuation of women and children. Because Tokyo was severely damaged by the air raids at

the end of the war, the capital was the priority in the redevelopment process. Although

Yokohama was also severely damaged by the bombs, the old downtown looked as if it had

been recently bombed 10 years after the war (Tamura, 1983).

With the booming economy in the mid-1950s, developers constructed numerous residential

buildings for various social classes in the inner city. The city had only a small business centre

in the 1960s. Most professionals commuted to Tokyo since there were few job opportunities

in Yokohama except for manual labour work at waterfront industrial sites (Tamura, 1983).

Lacking an attractive business core and further hampered by a surge of unplanned residential

developments, Yokohama announced a redevelopment plan, composed of six major projects,

in 1965. This declaration included: 1). Revitalization of the CBD; 2). Reclamation of the

Kanazawa District; 3). Creation of Kohoku New Town; 4). Establishment of municipal

subways; 5). Establishment of the Urban Expressway system; and 6). Construction of

Yokohama Bay Bridge. This was the first attempt by a Japanese municipality to make a

concrete, long-term master plan for its own city. The planning of Minato Mirai 21, in order to

have a CBD independent of Tokyo, was announced at this time. The goal was to have a

working population of 190,000 in the area by 2010 (Table 4.4).

Table 4. 4 Basic Goal for MM21 Plan

・ Projected Population

Work force: 190,000

Residents: 10,000

・ Land Usage

Buildings

(offices, commercial, and residential sites) 87 ha

Roads and railways: 42 ha

Parks and greenery: 46 ha

Port facilities: 11 ha

Total: 186 ha

・ Development period

Fiscal 1983 to 2010

(Land Readjustment <including a 5-year reimbursement period>)

Source: Minato Mirai 21 Corporation, 2009

To summarize, urban conditions in Yokohama are characterized by densely populated

residential neighbourhoods. In particular, the old neighbourhood area has a density of more

than 8,000 people per square km. The residential neighbourhoods have been developed to

accommodate commuters to the Tokyo area, which were the majority in the past, and the city

is famous for having a larger night-time population than daytime one. Recently the city’s

efforts to revitalise the centre are slowly making progress, as seen by the industrial relocation

12

and Minato Mirai 21 projects.

4.4.2 Planning Department

Yokohama is famous for its innovative Planning Bureau which tries to avoid the vertical

decision making process of the Japanese urban planning framework (Tamura, 1983). The

planning Bureau was created in 1968 when other municipalities in Japan had no idea how to

integrate each city’s bureau. The bureau succeeded in creating the 1965 plan that announced

the 6 big projects aimed at revitalizing Yokohama. Adapted from Yokohama’s successful case,

presently, a Planning Bureau exists in almost every municipality in Japan. The Planning

Bureau is in charge of many of the integrated and urgent issues in the city. For example,

currently the bureau in Yokohama is not only dealing with the issue of urban planning, but

also with informatization, internationalization etc.

In 1968, engineers handled urban planning responsibilities and dealt with developing the

physical shape of the city while implementing policy. Presently, planning a city requires

addressing a wide range of issues including social welfare, crime prevention, and

environmental protection. Moreover, public participation in urban planning has become more

common among Yokohama citizens. In this context, the scope of the field of urban policy and

urban planning has changed dramatically over the years.

Table 4.5 shows the current bureaus that deal with urban planning in Yokohama. The

integration of urban policy making, including social policies, is handled by the Urban

Management Bureau. Coordination and implementation concerning urban improvements,

such as creating a master plan, is dealt with by the Urban Improvement Bureau. The

procedures for urban planning are covered by the Community Planning Coordination Bureau.

Table 4.5: Present bureaus in charge of urban planning policies

Name of the Bureau / Division Description

Urban Management Bureau

(Toshi keiei kyoku)

Integrative coordination of other bureaus and

major policy making

Community Planning

Coordination Bureau

(Machizukuri chousei kyoku)

Urban planning, building, construction and

housing policies

Planning Division

(Machizukuri chousei kyoku

Kikakuka)

Planning and coordination for core policies of

urban planning, building construction, and housing

policies

Urban Improvement Bureau

(Toshiseibi-kyoku)

Integrative planning, coordination, and

implementation concerning urban improvement

13

Planning Division

(Toshiseibi-kyoku Kikakuka)

Investigation, planning, and implementation of

urban improvement project

Basic principles for land use planning

Enforcement and amendment for Yokohama Urban

Master Plan

Source: Personal communications with Yokohama City officials, 2006

4.4.3 Peoples’ Movement and Transportation

Looking at the overall number of commuting trips that take place within the Tokyo

Metropolitan Area (TMA), the number of trips to the area of Tokyo’s 23 wards is still the

largest, making up 68.0% of the total TMA commuters’ destinations (Figure 4.3). However,

among the destinations for Yokohama residents, Tokyo accounts for less than half (47.9%),

while intra-city commuters account for 34.6% of the total. These travel patterns clearly show

that the urban planning goal for the past 50 years to develop business cores compatible and

with proximity to Tokyo has been partially achieved.

Figure 4.3 Destinations of Commuters in Yokohama and Tokyo Metropolitan Area

Source: Committee for Transportation in Tokyo Metropolitan Area (CTTMA) 2004

Although Tokyo is still the most likely destination for commuters in the TMA, the growth

rate in 1998 has increased the most in suburb to suburb trips with approximately 130 %

increase in trips to Tokyo and 150 % increase in travel between suburbs. This means that the

traditional radiated movement of Tokyo-surrounding areas has shifted to a circular movement

between Yokohama, Saitama, and Chiba as they have become important as business hubs.

These diagonal and circular trips are not only confined to business trips, but include private

trips as well (MLIT, 1998).

14

Figure 4.4 shows the change in the annual number of passengers for each public

transportation mode in the city. The private railways exceed other public transportation

throughout the period indicated with around 600 million passengers annually. The number of

JR and subway passengers has increased steadily, and in 2004, JR was the second largest

transportation mode, behind private railways. The subway, surpassing the city bus for the first

time, was the third largest transportation mode in Yokohama in 2004. In fact, the city buses

dropped to the fourth in 2004. The new transportation system, Kanazawa seaside line started

its operation in July 1989. It is an Automated Guideway Transit (AGT) which runs along the

seaside, and carries around 16 million people annually in 2004.

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Num

ber

of

pass

enge

rs (

thousa

nd)

subway

city bus

taxi (corporateand private)

JR

Private railway

Newtransportationsystem

Figure 4.4: The annual passengers of each transportation mode

Source: City of Yokohama

4.4.4 Environmental Condition

Figure 4.5 shows the SO2 concentration of ambient air in Yokohama. Similar to other cities in

Japan, the concentration peaked in 1967 (Kono, et al., 2004). The concentration decreased to

less than the annual average of 0.01 ppm in the 1980s, far less than the US Environmental

Protection Agency’s (USEPA) health based national air quality annual standard average of

0.03 ppm.

The sudden decrease in the late 1960s is explained by the increased interest in environmental

pollution from politicians and practitioners. It resulted in the enactment of the “Air Pollution

Control Law” in 1968. At the same time, the National Diet also engaged in discussion on

combating the industrial pollution (Kono, 2005).

15

USEPA standard

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

ppm

Figure 4.5: Annual average of SO2 concentration in Yokohama (Ambient air)

Source: City of Yokohama

Figure 4.6 and 4.7 show the representative air pollutants from the transport sector, NOx and

NO2 concentrations, both in roadside and in ambient air. NO2 concentrations were stagnant

during the 1980s and 1990s both in terms of ambient air and roadside air. In the 2000s,

however, emissions decreased to an annual average of less than 0.04 ppm, which is also

below the USEPA’s health based national air quality standard of 0.053 ppm.

0.000

0.050

0.100

0.150

0.200

0.250

1973

197

4

197

5

197

6

1977

1978

1979

1980

198

1

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

199

5

199

6

1997

1998

1999

200

0

200

1

200

2

2003

2004

ppm

ambient

roadside

Figure 4.6: Annual average of NOx concentration in Yokohama

Source: City of Yokohama

USEPA standard

0.000

0.010

0.020

0.030

0.040

0.050

0.060

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

ppm

ambient

roadside

Figure 4.7: Annual average of NO2 concentration in Yokohama

Source: City of Yokohama

16

Dust fall shown in Figure 4.8 peaked in 1966, and the accumulation has been steadily

decreasing. Presently, Ministry of Environment (MOE) does not set the standards for dust fall.

In the health science field, more than 10t / km2 /month is considered to be unfavourable for

human health. The level in Yokohama has decreased to less than 10 t /km2

/ month in

1973-1974 and the present level is around 4t / km2 / month. The SPM concentration shown in

Figure 4.9 has been decreasing gradually from the early 1980s, and in the 2000s, it is at the

level of approximately 0.05 mg/m3.

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

t/km

2/m

onth

Figure 4.8: Annual average of dust falls in Yokohama

Source: City of Yokohama

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

mg/

m3

ambient

roadside

Figure 4.9: Annual average of SPM concentration in Yokohama

Source: City of Yokohama

The GHG emissions trend in the city is shown in Table 4.6 and Figure 4.10. The total GHG

emissions in Yokohama was 21.5 million t CO2-equivalent in 2003, which was equivalent to

1.6% of that of the national level and the CO2 emissions were 18.8 million t CO2-equivalent

(Table 4.6). The sectoral emission rates show that the transport sector has the highest

emission with 24.7% of the total, followed by energy production sector (22.5%), households

(19.8%), and business sector (14.4%).

17

Table 4.6: CO2 emissions in amounts and rates in Yokohama

Unit 1,000 t

CO2-equivalent

Energy Industry Household Business Transport Waste Total

1990 3,310 3,440 3,110 1,880 4,190 610 16,530

2000 3,850 2,790 3,800 2,790 4,840 1,020 19,080

2001 3,760 2,560 3,780 2,740 4,860 950 18,660

2002 3,900 2,540 3,850 2,800 4,830 860 18,780

2003 4,220 2,560 3,710 2,710 4,640 940 18,770

Percentage %

Energy Industry Household Business Transport Waste Total

1990 20.0 20.8 18.8 11.4 25.3 3.7 100.0

2000 20.2 14.6 19.9 14.6 25.4 5.3 100.0

2001 20.2 13.7 20.3 14.7 26.0 5.1 100.0

2002 20.8 13.5 20.5 14.9 25.7 4.6 100.0

2003 22.5 13.6 19.8 14.4 24.7 5.0 100.0

Source: City of Yokohama

20.0 20.2 20.2 20.8 22.5

20.814.6 13.7 13.5 13.6

18.8

19.9 20.3 20.5 19.8

11.414.6 14.7 14.9 14.4

25.3 25.4 26.0 25.7 24.7

3.7 5.3 5.1 4.6 5.0

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1990 2000 2001 2002 2003

Waste

Transport

Business

Household

Industry

Energy

Figure 4.10: CO2 emission rate from each sector in Yokohama

Source: City of Yokohama

The proportions of CO2 emissions from energy, household, and waste sectors (22.5%, 19.8%

and 5.0%, respectively) were higher than those of the national levels (6.8%, 13.5% and 1.9%),

and those from the business and transport sectors were almost at the same level in 2003. On

(%)

18

the other hand, the emissions from the industrial sector were much lower (13.6 %) than the

national level (37.9%) due to the relatively small distribution of industrial areas in Yokohama.

GHG emissions per capita were 6.09 t CO2-equivalent, which was about 58% of that of the

national level (10.49 t CO2-equivalent). The reason for this lower per capita emission rate is

due to smaller industrial areas, lower vehicle ownership, less vehicle travel per capita, and the

relatively warmer climate in Yokohama compared to the national average (Kono and Hoshiko

2007).

4.4.5 Eco Model City for the Low Carbon Society

Eco Model City is a certification system that was developed by the central government in 2008

for establishing a low carbon society at the city government levels. Central government selects

cities which have targeted the ambitious goals of GHG emissions reduction and encourages

them to achieve their goals. As shown in Table 4.7, the city of Yokohama was successfully

chosen along with 12 other municipalities out of total 89 applicants through a rigorous

selection process based on five criteria: 1) the city’s ambitious reduction target; 2) innovative

ideas; 3) uniqueness and specialty; 4) feasibility; and 5) sustainability (Kuroda, personal

communication, 2008).

Table 4.7: The 13 Eco Model Cities and Eco Model Candidate Cities in Japan

・Eco Model Cities: six cities that fully satisfy the 5 selection criteria

Large cities: Yokohama, Kitakyushu

Regional central cities: Obihiro, Toyama

Small cities/towns: Shimokawa (Hokkaido), Minamata

・Eco Model Candidate Cities: seven cities that will resolve areas that do not

yet fulfil the criteria during the process of drawing up an action plan

Large cities: Kyoto, Sakai

Regional central cities: Iida, Toyota

Small cities/towns: Yusuhara (Kochi Prefecture), Miyakojima

Tokyo: Chiyoda Ward

Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport (MLIT), 2008

In this proposal, the City of Yokohama has set a target for a 30 % reduction of GHG emissions

per capita by 2025 and a 60% reduction by 2050. The city’s aggressive goals are bolstered by

its past achievements. For example, their waste management shows a 30% reduction from

2004-2006, which was achieved through strict waste separation and recycling. Moreover, the

proposal details feasible plans as to how the goals can be attained specifically in Yokohama. It

accounts for the city’s impressive number of intellectuals and technically skilled workers and

the city’s positive externalities. Also, the proposal points out the strong history of citizen

19

volunteerism in Yokohama, particularly in environmental areas. The proposal suggests that

this past involvement represents an attitude of Yokohama’s citizens and can thus be counted on

in current and future efforts towards creating a low carbon city (Kuroda, personal

communications, 2008).

In terms of land use and transportation, several proposals have been made, and all of which are

based on the Co-Do 30 announced in 2008 (the action codes geared towards 30% reduction in

GHG emissions by 2025). The main policies for transportation are to promote mobility by

walking, bicycling, and public transit, and to create new generation vehicles and promote city

planning that are suitable for a low carbon city (City of Yokohama, 2009).

Specifically, the transportation Co-Do emphasizes: 1) zero carbon emissions for municipal

buses and subways; 2) introduction of low polluting and energy efficient cars; 3) efficient

allocation for large logistics facilities; 4) the creation of bicycle networks; 5) installation of low

carbon transportation modes in urban areas attractive to the next generation; 6) mobility

management in existing residential areas and support for local transportation; 7) promotion of

congestion management for the suburban mega-marts; and 8) idling stops for inland vessels

(City of Yokohama, 2009).

The transportation Co-Do explains the importance of policies in dealing with GHG reduction,

and also articulates them in relation to geographic context. For example, in the CBD, where

traffic is congested and parking space limited, it states the need for creating bicycle route

networks and a bike-share system, with social experiments that include park-and-ride, and new

attractive forms of transit like Electric Vehicles (EVs), segways, and Intelligent Transportation

System (ITS). On the other hand, in suburban areas, where commuting distances are often

longer, it aims to promote mobility management by a voluntary shift from private vehicles to

public transit, regional transportation support, and car sharing (Kuroda, personal

communications, 2008).

4.4.6 Yokohama Climate Change Action Policy Co-Do 30

The Co-Do 30, the action codes geared towards a 30% reduction of GHG emissions by 2025,

was established in 2008. Co-Do is short for Carbon-Off and Do, and the sound of it means

“action” in Japanese (kodo). It puts forth the goals of drastic GHG reduction and articulates

the required actions to reach those goals. By setting up this Co-Do 30, the city government

expects to have bottom up implementation leadership from the community and private sectors,

rather than top-down from City Hall. Fig 4.11 shows the basic idea of the Co-Do 30 with the

mascot character.

20

Figure 4.11: The Mascot Character for Co-Do 30

Source: City of Yokohama

The code emphasizes seven main areas with various areas to be targeted for achieving a low

carbon city: life, business, building, transportation, energy, urban planning and open spaces,

and city hall (Table 4.8). The Co-Do that address transportation include: 1) developing

advanced transportation measures in the city center area; and 2) transportation and land use

planning that is good for public transit and can accommodate pedestrians and bikers.

Table 4.8: Seven Core Co-Dos in the City of Yokohama

1 Living Co-Do Enlightenment for Anti climate change actions

Supporting anti climate change activities

3R (reduce, reuse, recycle) at home

2 Business Co-Do GHG reduction actions at office

Subsidizing green business ideas

3R at office

3 Building Co-Do Enforcement of assessment and grading system

Subsidy for green buildings

4 Transportation

Co-Do

Advanced transportation modes and systems at CBDs

Promotion for walking, Non-Motorized Transport

(NMT)6, and public transit

5 Energy Co-Do Promotion for renewable

Carbon offset introduction

6 City and Green

Co-Do

Conservation of open spaces

Biomass promotion

Compact city idea promotion

6 NMT: Abbreviation for non motorized transport. Walking and Bicycling, and variants such as Small-Wheeled

Transport (skates, skateboards, push scooters and hand carts)

21

7 City Hall Co-Do Introduction of energy efficient facilities, and usage of

renewable

Leading the other offices

Note: Made from City of Yokohama

In the transportation and land use planning sectors, the code aims to establish car restraining

policies and road pricing in CBD areas. Moreover, one of its goals is the creation of an

eco-point system where transportation and commercial sectors can work together. Co-Do also

articulates plans to have designated bus lines, carpooling, and High-Occupancy Vehicle

(HOV) lanes7. These measures correspond to reducing travel activities (A) and changing

modal structure (S) of the ASIF framework proposed by International Energy Agency (2006).

Therefore, the policies can be evaluated from both long-term and summative standpoints.

4.4.7 Greying of Population and Environmental Burden

Currently, the trend of declining birthrates and graying of society prevails throughout Japan,

and Yokohama is no exception. Although Yokohama has been experiencing an increase in

population and a trend toward a young demographic, the city needs to continue to attract a new

population in order to secure future tax revenues. Therefore, some city officials argue that the

city needs policies that can attract populations from adjacent municipalities by increasing the

appeal of living in the city.

Along with the issue of the graying population, reconstructing the old municipal housing

dispersed in rural areas in Yokohama is also a matter of importance. This housing was

originally constructed for low-income people who faced difficulties obtaining housing in

Yokohama. The housing system has functioned since 1951 in accordance with the Public

Housing Act implemented by the national government, and the buildings were constructed all

over the city. Presently, the buildings have become obsolete in terms of their environmental,

security, and safety standards. The population residing in these buildings is getting older as

well. Because the provision of basic infrastructure and service to these areas is costly and not

environment-friendly, the city needs to renovate these buildings in accordance with more

modern and consolidated models, and relocate them to more convenient locations (Akimoto,

personal communications, 2008).

7 A high-occupancy vehicle lane (HOV lane) is a lane reserved for vehicles with a driver and one or more

passengers. It is also known as carpool lanes, commuter lanes, diamond lanes, express lanes, and transit lanes

22

4.4.8 Two Policies Highlighted

Yokohama, being a part of the greater Tokyo metropolitan area, possesses highly developed

urban areas and maintains fairly good environmental standards. The interviews revealed some

relevant urban planning policies related to the analysis.

For example, there was the emphasis on pedestrians and para-transit oriented cities, promotion

of the city owned public transit (city buses, city subways, and Light Rail Transit) and invitation

extended to the neighboring municipalities in anticipation of the trend of depopulation of the

country as a whole. In the context of these important pieces of information, policy levers need

to be carefully chosen for the analysis.

Concretely, there are two policies to be highlighted. These are:

Policies on public transit promotion;

Policies on pedestrian and NMT friendly urban designs to promote car restraining (car

free day);

The model considers applying these two policies and calibrates the changes in GHG emissions.

5. Methods and Results

5.1 Overview of the Model

The model employed in this study is a land use transportation model derived from Tsutsumi,

et al (2006) that can calculate the equilibrium of locations for the three main actors:

households, the service industry, and “other” industries. These actors perform in accordance

with an economic concept, Cobb-Douglas Production Function. Households make

commuting trips to the other industries and free trips to the service industry. Production in the

service industry is restricted to these household trips. The other industries make business trips

to the service sector. The two industrial sectors pay salaries to households, and each actor

pays land rent to the landowners. Households act to maximize their utility, and each industry

sector acts to maximize its profit. The price of land is determined by both the supply of and

demand for land.

The model divides two prefectures (Tokyo and Kanagawa) into 35 zones: Tokyo into six

zones and Kanagawa into 29 zones. Zone categorization was determined through interviews

with the urban and transportation planners of the City of Yokohama, Mr. Yasuyuki Akimoto

and Mr. Keita Matsui, and a person-trip survey specialist from a think tank, Mr. Jun Morio

(Table 4.2).

The study used a transportation model to calculate the necessary figures needed for the land

use transportation model to calculate utility of each zone. These figures include the

23

commuting time input for households and the business trip input for industries. The

transportation model can demonstrate the cost and time of travel for each of the types of trips

in each mode. It can also predict the probability of mode choice for each type of trip by

responding to changes in time and cost. The selections of the locations are determined by the

utility in each zone.

5.2 Transportation Model

The transportation model estimates the choice of four modes (trains, cars, buses and

walking/biking) through the logit model. The logit model can predict the probability of choice

among multiple choices stochastically using the Gumbel distribution for prediction. The logit

model imposes the restriction that the distribution of the random error terms is independent

and identical across the alternatives. It causes cross-elasticity between all pairs of alternatives

to be identical. The model used a multinomial logit model instead of a nested logit model,

which could be used to predict the multiple choices of modes, because this study puts more

emphasis on the emission calculations. The logit model for mode choice is expressed by

Figure 5.1.

Logit Model can be expressed as:

Pin: Probability of selecting i,

Vin: Utility of mode i (inverse of the travel costs of mode i)

n: Number of modes

Figure 5.1 Logit Model for the mode choices

The model demonstrates the present situation based on the most recent available transportation

data. The model indicates the mode choices of free trip makers, business trip makers, and

commuters in the designated zones in high accuracy rates. As Tsutsumi’s, et al (2006)

Computable Urban Economic Model of Tsukuba (CUET) and other similar models do,

indication of strong prediction is determined by a ±15% range in accuracy. Table 5.1 and 5.2

Choice of Destination

Choice of Mode

Cars Trains Buses Walking/Biking

24

illustrates individual’s choices in terms of different modes for each kind of each trip in

percentage.

Looking at each type of trip, the free trip estimation attained 90.06% accuracy and the

commuting trip attained 81.39%. On the other hand, the estimation of business trip accuracy is

relatively low (69.00%). This is mainly because the trips used in this calculation are limited to

occurring between two areas and each trend is person-specific. Considering more than 84% of

within-±15% accuracy has been attained in total, it was determined that it was viable for this

study to proceed to the subsequent step.

Table 5. 1 Accuracy (±15%) of the model in each trip mode in each trip type

(%)

Trip type

Trip mode Free trips

Business trips Commuting trips

Train 74.01% 51.49% 80.52%

Vehicle and

Motorcycle 85.30% 66.34% 85.33%

Bus 98.16% 94.93% 96.68%

Walking and Biking 94.61% 88.61% 71.04%

Total 90.06% 69.00% 81.39%

Table 5. 2 Total Number of people in each trip mode in each trip type

Trip

type

Trip mode

Free trips Business trips Commuting trips

Real Predicted Real Predicted Real Predicted

Train 804,545 595,456 266,398 137,165 3,765,905 3,032,463

Vehicle and

Motorcycle 1,927,530 1,644,147 590,948 392,041 3,737,742 3,189,571

Bus 324,693 318,717 23,227 22050 230,884 223,227

Walking and

Biking 4,266,898 4,037,124 287,052 254,356 1,446,489 1,027,577

Total 7,323,666 6,595,444 1,167,625 783,562 9,181,020 7,472,838

Real Value

total 17,672,311 Predicted total 14,873,894 Percentage 84.16%

Source: CTTMA 2004

Figures 5.2, 5.3, and 5.4 on the following page display the calibrated patterns of each trip in

each mode in colour variations. The columns list the 35 places of origins and the rows list the

25

35 places of destinations. There are 1,225 (35 X 35) patterns of travel for each trip in each

mode. The left side of the figure represents the model’s estimations. The right side shows the

actual values derived from the trip survey completed by potential travellers. If the colour

tones match right to left in each mode in each trip, the model was presumed to be successful

in demonstrating actual “real-world” occurrences.

Figure 5.2 shows both estimated and the actual values for free trips in trains, cars, buses, and

walking/biking. The free trips’ travel patterns are relatively site-specific compared to the

commuting trips. Therefore both estimated and the actual values contain a number of white

cells and hard to compare them.

26

Figure 5.2: Results of logit model for free trips taken by trains, cars/motorcycles, buses, and

walking/biking in 35 zones

Key:

Left: estimated; Right: actual value

Top: Trains; Second: cars; Second from the bottom: buses; Bottom: walking and biking.

Colour: Blue 0% of the mode; Yellow 50% of the mode; Red 100% of the mode

Figure 5.3 shows the business trip estimation and the actual choices in trains, cars, buses, and

walking/biking. Again, similar to the free trips, the business trips’ actual travel patterns are

also site-specific. Nonetheless the colour tones between the two diagrams of cars are

relatively matching.

27

Figure 5.3: Results of logit model for business trips taken by trains, cars/motorcycles, buses,

and walking/biking in 35 zones.

Key:

Left: estimated; Right: actual value

Top: Trains; Second: cars; Second from the bottom: buses; Bottom: walking and biking.

Colour: Blue 0% of the mode; Yellow 50% of the mode; Red 100% of the mode

Figure 5.4 represents commuting trip taken by trains, cars, buses, and walking/biking in both

estimated and actual values. Compared to the previous two trips, the colour tones of right and

left match well. For example, in the case of trains, both actual and estimated diagrams show

the yellowish tones surrounding blue diagonal lines. Moreover, the results of the estimated

car travel patterns are illustrated by yellow cells along with a yellow/orange diagonal line,

28

similar to the actual travel patterns.

Figure 5.4: Results of logit model for commuting trips taken by trains, cars/motorcycles,

buses, and walking/biking in 35 zones.

Key:

Left: estimated; Right: actual value

Top: Trains; Second: cars; Second from the bottom: buses; Bottom: walking and biking.

Colour: Blue 0% of the mode; Yellow 50% of the mode; Red 100% of the mode

5.3 Economic Model

The economic model was designed employing the concepts of microeconomics similar to the

Cobb-Douglas Production Function. In economics, the relationship between quantity of inputs

(workers) and quantity of outputs (products) is termed the production function. Charles Cobb,

a mathematician, and Paul Douglas, an economist, developed the following Cobb-Douglas

29

Production Function developed this Cobb-Douglas Production Function and it is widely used

to represent this relationship of this production-labour.

Q = ALαK

β (1)

where Q is output, A, α, and β are constants, and L and K are labour and capital.

When α+β=1, the production function exhibits constant returns to scale and it is linearly

homogeneous. In other words, doubling each input would result in a doubling of output.

Constant returns to scale are assumed for the activities of industries in this model. This

production function was used to express the activities of the three actors used in this model.

The changes in equilibrium take place in several steps. First, modal shifts occur in each

Origin-Destination pair as the cost of trips changes with each policy change. Second, the

utility of each zone changes as the new modal split is determined. Third, each sector selects a

new location and that results in a new equilibrium in the locations of the three sectors. In an

actual “real world” scenario, the cycle repeats; however, in this study, one cycle is selected to

calibrate the emissions.

5.4 GHG Emissions Calibrations

As discussed earlier, the GHG emissions calculation was attained accounting for two factors:

Modal split change and housing location change due to changes in the equilibrium. Modal

shifts would modify the emissions drastically if each person shifts to a lower emission mode,

such as from private vehicles to trains or buses; or from buses to trains. Moreover, switching

to a zero-emission mode such as walking and biking would similarly result in a substantial

reduction.

The annual emissions from a person using trains, cars, buses, or walking/biking are measured

respectively. The amount of GHG emissions, equivalent to CO2 emissions, necessary to move

a person is 18 grams by train and 173 grams by car (Mie prefecture 2009). Considering that

most workers are commuting to Tokyo’s CBD district, the average commuting radius of 30

km is used here. The average number of working days per year is set as 240 days, as used by

Tsutsumi, et al (2006) in their Computable Urban Economic Model of Tsukuba. Table 5.3

displays the total emissions issued from a person using each mode for each trip in t/CO2

equivalent.

30

Table 5.3 Average annual emissions issued from one person in each mode

CO2 emissions

by 1 km (gram)

Commuting trip

(t/CO2

equivalent)

Free trip

(t/CO2

equivalent)

Business trip

(t/CO2

equivalent)

Distance of

trips

60 km 17.5 km 17.5 km

Trains 18 0.259 0.070 0.070

Cars 173 2.491 0.668 0.668

Buses 29 0.830 0.221 0.221

Walking/Biking 0 0 0 0

Made from: CUET, Mie prefecture 2009, Yomiuri Online 2007.

Regarding the location equilibrium changes, the estimation of GHG emissions for each

building were used. Each zone’s build up characteristics are estimated through the block level

data. Then, each zone’s emissions are estimated before and after the policy changes. Table 5.4

shows the basic units for the different types of building.

Table 5.4 Basic unit for the GHG emissions in different types of building

Category for the emission

unit

Building Types

Basic unit for carbon emissions

(kgCO2/m2 year)

Single Detached (No car) 44.6

Apartment/Condos (No car) 38.9

Energy efficient

Condominiums

24.9

Office 70

Commercial 112

Manufacturing 228

Source: Takada and Horikawa 2007

5.5 Change of GHG Emissions

Through the calibrations of modal split changes and location changes, the study found that

the City of Yokohama can have even lower carbon level (reducing 88.8 thousand ton/year for

public transport promotion and 898.2 thousand ton/year for car free day), in addition to

already being a role model in terms of transport sector emissions.

31

6. Conclusions

Through a discussion of a case study, this paper demonstrates how the two important

elements of urban planning, land use and transportation planning play essential roles in

present environmental issues such as climate change and biodiversity. It examined the

proportional relationship between Asia’s rapid urbanization and rising GHG emissions and

interrelation between the loss of biodiversity and air pollutants.

The study used the city of Yokohama as a case study for analysis because of its recent

development and policy changes aimed at creating an environmentally friendly city. The

paper provided an overview of the background information, policies, and activities of the city.

Cognizant of the specialists’ interviews, the study selected two feasible policies on land use

and transportation planning. Representing the policy changes in transportation and economic

models, the study illustrated GHG emissions changes as they correlate to modal shift changes

and housing locations changes.

There are two major contributions of this study to research fields. First, this research provides

a new and innovative example of regional carbon management focused on reducing travel

demand and modal shifts, which are usually neglected in the existing literature. Regional

carbon management, the equivalent of GHG mitigation at the regional level, is an international

and aggressive concept. This research corresponds with the aims of similar projects, such as

Cities for Climate Protection by Local Governments for Sustainability (ICLEI) and Urban and

Regional Carbon Management (URCM) by Global Carbon Project (GCP).

Second, the study confirms that land use and modal shift policies significantly influence GHG

emissions from the transport sector. The model’s results indicate that through its policy

changes and corresponding changes in human behaviours, Yokohama will achieve lower

carbon emissions. Moreover, the qualitative data demonstrated the city’s struggle to tackle the

top-down decision-making system common in urban planning. As most fast growing

Asia-Pacific cities have a similar decision-making framework, they can surely relate to

Yokohama’s efforts to create a built-up environment directed at sustaining a low carbon

society. Therefore, other areas in developing Asia-Pacific countries can look to Yokohama as

a model and consider adopting its Yokohama’s land use and modal shift policies.

In conclusion, fast growing Asian megacities cannot follow the same path as those in the rest

of the world, which the normal Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC)8 represents. Given the

8 EKC = Environmental Kuznets Curve: It hypothesizes that the relationship between per capita income and the

use of natural resources; the emission of the wastes or pollutions has an inverted U-shape.

32

size and intensity of their urbanization, they must leapfrog to become low carbon cities where

public transit, non-motorized transport (NMT), and pedestrians are ideally accommodated as

those in affluent Asia are. Presently, anthropogenic GHG emissions are so severe on this

planet that the conventional paths of EKC should be avoided in the future. We should look to

new models, as used in Yokohama, for ways to achieve the goals of attaining low-carbon

cities.

33

References:

Charlotte Kendra Castillo, Deejay Cromwell Sanqui, May Ajero and Cornie Huizenga. (2007).

The Co-Benefits of Responding to Climate Change: Status in Asia Consultation Draft.

USEPA, Manila Observatory - MO, CAI-Asia.

City of Yokohama Statistics. (n.d.). Retrieved on July 22, 2009. From City of Yokohama

Homepage. Web site: http://www.city.yokohama.jp/front/welcome.html

City of Yokohama. (2006) Yokohamashi Seikatsu Guide (The guide for living in Yokohama).

Yokohama: City of Yokohama. (In Japanese).

City of Yokohama. (2008). Yokohama Toshi Kotsu Keikaku (Urban Transportation Planning

of the City of Yokohama). Yokohama: City of Yokohama. (In Japanese).

Committee for Transportation in Tokyo Metropolitan Area-CTTMA. (2004). Tokyo-ken

Person Trip chosa no tebiki (Guide for TMA person trip survey). Tokyo: Committee for

Transportation in Tokyo Metropolitan Area. (In Japanese).

Elena L. Zvereva, Eija Toivonen and Mikhail V. Kozlov. (2008). Changes in species richness

of vascular plants under the impact of air pollution: a global perspective. Global Ecology and

Biogeography. Volume 17 Issue 3, Pages 305-319.

GAMS homepage (2009) Retrieved on November 20, 2009. http://www.gams.com/

Gareth K. Phoenix, W. Kevin Hicks, Steve Cinderby, Johan C. I. Kuylenstierna, William D.

Stock, Frank J. Dentener, Ken E. Giller, Amy T. Austin, Rod D. B. Lefroy, Ben S. Gimeno,

Mike R. Ashmore, and Philip Ineson. (2006). Atmospheric nitrogen deposition in world

biodiversity hotspots: the need for a greater global perspective in assessing N deposition

impact. Global Change Biology. Volume 12 Issue 3, Pages 470 - 476.

International Energy Agency (IEA). 2006. The Road from Kyoto: Current CO2 and Transport

Policies in the IEA. Paris: IEA.

Kono, Noriko and Tomomi Hoshiko. (2007). Promoting Reduction in Travel Demand in

Transport Sector of Asian Cities: Case of Yokohama, Japan. In Air Pollution Control in the

Transportation Sector: Third Phase Research Report of the Urban Environmental

Management Project. Hayama: Institute for Global Environmental Studies (IGES).

34

Kono, Noriko and Yoshiki Yamagata. (2009). Mitigating Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the

Asia-Pacific Region through Land Use Planning. Paper presented at International Human

Dimension Program (IHDP) Open Meeting 2009. Presented on April 28, 2009 in Bonn,

Germany.

Kono, Noriko. (2010). Towards Low Carbon Cities through Land Use and Modal Shifts: A

Case of Yokohama. PhD diss., University of Hawaii at Manoa.

Kono, Noriko. (2009). Japanese Low Carbon Cities - a Role Model in the Asia-Pacific

Region? Indicators on Land Use and Transportation Planning of LCCs. Paper presented at

World Bank Workshop on Global City Indicator Program and Development of Greenhouse

Gas Index for Cities on June 22, 2009 in Tokyo, Japan.

Kono, Noriko, and Hidefumi Imura. (2005). Capacity Development for Cities through the

Environmental Asset Approach: Examples of its application in Japanese cities. In Working

paper for IGES. Hayama: IGES.

Kono, Noriko, Kiyomi Kawamoto, and Hidefumi Imura. (2004). Environmental Management

Capacity and International Environmental Cooperation: Case study on three industrial cities

in Japan (Kankyo-kanri-noryokushisan to kankyo-kokusai-kyoryoku: nihon no sandai

kogyotoshi o reini) Paper presented at Environmental Systems Committee Annual

Conference 2004. (In Japanese)

Loppi, Stefano, Luca Paoli, Carlo Gaggi. (2006). Diversity of Epiphytic lichens and Hg

contents of Xanthoria parientina Thalklli as Monitors of geothermal air pollution in the Mt.

Amiata Area (central Italy)

MDG in Asia and the Pacific. (n.d.). Retrieved on July 22, 2009. From Millennium

Development Goals in Asia and the Pacific. Web site: http://www.mdgasiapacific.org/

Metropolitan Statistics. (n.d.). Retrieved on July 22, 2009. From City of Yokohama

Homepage. Web site: http://www.city.yokohama.jp/me/stat/daitoshi/new/

Mie Prefecture Homepage (n.d.) Retrieved on November 20, 2009.

http://www.eco.pref.mie.jp/diary/details.asp?cd=2008100423&pno=3 (In Japanese)

Phillip R. Berke, Edward J. Kaiser; Donald Godschalk. (2006). Urban Land Use Planning.

Chicago: University of Illinois Press.

35

Rental Cycle Hama-Chari. (n.d.). Nice Yokohama homepage. Retrieved on July 22, 2009

from Nice Yokohama. Web site: http://niceyokohama.web.infoseek.co.jp/ (In Japanese)

Takagda, Shuichi and Takehiro, Horikawa. (2007). How to Promote Energy Efficiency in

Buildings (Shoene taisaku no kangaekata susumekata). Tokyo: Ohmu-sha. (in Japanese)

Tamura, Akira. (1983). Toshi Yokohama wo tsukuru (Making of the City of Yokohama).

Tokyo: Chuokoronsha. (In Japanese).

Tsutsumi, Morito, Kazuhiro Otoha, and Nao Shimizu. 2006. Computable Urban Economic

Model for Tsukuba-Tsuchiura-Ushiku Area. Tsukuba: University of Tsukuba. (In Japanese)

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) (2009) The Millennium

Development Goals Report 2008. New York: UNDESA.

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division. (2007).

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision. New York: United Nations.

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division. (2008).

World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision. New York: United Nations.

Urban Environmental Management Project, Institute for Global Environmental Studies-IGES.

(2005). Urban Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Asian Mega-Cities: Policies for

a sustainable future. Hayama: IGES.

Wescott, Clay and Doug Porter. (2002). Fiscal Decentralization and Citizen Participation in

East Asia. Conference Paper presented at the Citizen Participation in the Context of Fiscal

Decentralization: Best Practice in Municipal Management in Latin America and Asia. Manila:

Asia Development Bank.

Wolfe, Jeanne M. (1989). Theory, practice, explanation and action: the example of urban

planning. Remaking of Human Geography. Audrey Kobayashi and Suzanne MacKenzie.

Unwin Hyman: London, pp.62-77.

Zenkoku Sumitaitoshi Ranking (Ranking for the most popular cities to live in Japan) (n.d.).

Retrieved on July 22, 2009. From Seikatsu Guide Chiiki Joho. Web site:

http://www.seikatsu-guide.com/area/national_rank.html (In Japanese)

The United Nations University Institute of Advanced Studies (UNU-IAS) is a global think tank whose mission is “to advance knowledge and promote learning for policy-making to meet the challenges of sustainable development.” UNU-IAS undertakes research and postgraduate education to identify and address strategic issues of concern for all humankind, for governments, decision makers and, particularly, for developing countries.

The Institute convenes expertise from disciplines such as economics, law, social and natural sciences to better understand and contribute creative solutions to pressing global concerns, with research focused on the following areas:

• Biodiplomacy• Sustainable Development Governance• Science and Technology for Sustainable Societies • Education for Sustainable Development• Sustainable Urban Futures • Traditional Knowledge