roman presentation - bh pedigree, genetics and performance conference, sept 2011

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2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY

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Page 1: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY

Page 2: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY

1

Page 3: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

Discussion Outline

• Introduction

• Speed in the Thoroughbred

• The classification of aptitudinal type

• The expression of aptitudinal type

• Aptitudinal type and the American classic horse

• Q & A

22011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference

September 2011, Lexington, KY

Page 4: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

Expressions of speed:

• Speed over a distance

(e.g., 8f in 1:35.0)

• Average speed

(e.g., 55.58 feet-per-second)

• Fractional speed and pace

(e.g., :22.0, :46.1, 1:10.3, 1:35.0)

(e.g., :24.0, :47.3, 1:11.1, 1:35.0)

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY

Speed in the Thoroughbred

3

Page 5: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY

4

What is stamina?

Merriam-Webster dictionary: “the ability to sustain a

prolonged stressful effort or activity”

Prolonged and stressful are relative terms

Routes are more prolonged than sprints (distance)

Sprints are more stressful than routes (pace)

Speed in the Thoroughbred

Page 6: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

Observations on stamina:

• Speed over the distance or winning at a long

distance?

• The opposite side of the “class” coin from speed

• Speed or stamina is always sacrificed for the other

• Stamina’s importance is determined by culture

• Danny Perlsweig, trainer of champion Lord Avie,

once noted that a horse can get any distance if you

give it enough time

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY

Speed in the Thoroughbred

5

Page 7: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY

DISTANCE (FURLONGS) RECORD HOLDER RECORD TIME PREDICTED TIME SPEED (FPS)6.00 Twin Sparks 1:06.49 1:06.38 59.567.00 Rich Cream/Time to Explode 1:19.40 1:19.28 58.198.00 Dr. Fager/Najran 1:32.20 1:32.18 57.278.50 Hoedown’s Day 1:38.40 1:38.63 57.019.00 Simply Majestic 1:45.00 1:45.08 56.57

10.00 Spectacular Bid 1:57.80 1:57.98 56.0312.00 Secretariat 2:24.00 2:23.78 55.00

Correlation Coefficient = 0.99998

Record Time = 12.90 x Distance - 11.02

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Tim

e (

seco

nd

s)

Distance (furlongs)

North American Dirt Records (2010)

The Genetic “Frontier of Speed”

Speed in the Thoroughbred (2010)

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Page 8: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

• It is a visualization of the current state of Thoroughbred speed

• No single horse can hold all records because of variation in

aptitudinal type

• Record holders are part of the same gene pool but differ in such

things as biomechanical properties and/or cardiovascular

characteristics

• The line represents the current evolutionary limit of speed

• Records will continue to be broken and linearity will be retained

while the “Frontier of Speed” shifts

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY 7

Speed in the ThoroughbredThe significance of time-distance linearity

Page 9: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

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Tim

e (

seco

nd

s)

Distance (furlongs)

North American Dirt Records (1976)

Record Time = 12.82 x Distance – 9.95

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY

DISTANCE (FURLONGS) RECORD HOLDER RECORD TIME PREDICTED TIME SPEED (FPS)6.00 Grey Papa 1:07.20 1.06.95 58.937.00 Triple Bend 1:19.80 1:19.77 57.898.00 Dr. Fager 1:32.20 1:32.59 57.278.50 Swaps 1:39.00 1:39.00 56.679.00 Secretariat 1:45.40 1:45.41 56.36

10.00 Noor/Quack 1:58.20 1:58.22 55.8412.00 Secretariat 2:24.00 2:23.86 55.00

Correlation Coefficient = 0.99997

The Genetic “Frontier of Speed”

Speed in the Thoroughbred (1976)

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Page 10: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY

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Record Time = 12.90 x Distance - 11.02

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Tim

e (

seco

nd

s)

Distance (furlongs)

North American Dirt Records (2010)

Correlation Coefficient = 0.99998

0.00

20.00

40.00

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120.00

140.00

160.00

5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 11.00 12.00 13.00

Tim

e (

seco

nd

s)

Distance (furlongs)

North American Dirt Records (1976)

Record Time = 12.82 x Distance – 9.95

Correlation Coefficient = 0.99997

Page 11: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY

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79.40

81.40

83.40

85.40

87.40

89.40

91.40

93.40

95.40

97.40

7.00 7.10 7.20 7.30 7.40 7.50 7.60 7.70 7.80 7.90 8.00 8.10 8.20 8.30 8.40 8.50

Tim

e (

seco

nd

s)

Distance (furlongs)

The Evolving Genetic Frontier of Speed

2010

1976

Page 12: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

Measuring Aptitudinal Type Using Dosage

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY

What contemporary Dosage methodology is not:

• A breeding theory

• A handicapping system

• A betting scheme for the Kentucky Derby

Dosage is a methodology applied to large populations of Thoroughbreds for classifying pedigrees by aptitudinal type and, as a research tool, correlating that type with real-world track performance.

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Page 13: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

Lt. Col. J. J. Vuillier – France, early 20th century (Les Croisements Rationnels dans la Race Pure)

• Observed over 10-20 year time frames that very few stallions (“chefs-de-race") appear with great frequency in extended Thoroughbred pedigrees of Europe’s best runners

• Applied a diminishing influence in successively remote generations

• Found over time a constant percentage of inheritance from each chef-de-race

• The percentages "fixed" the breed and those percentages represented the goal of proposed matings

• Theory used in the breeding program of H. H. Aga Khan

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY

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A Brief History of Dosage

Page 14: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

Dr. Franco Varola – Italy, mid-20th century (Typology of the Race Horse; Functional Development of the Thoroughbred)

• Shifted the emphasis from a quantitative (Vuillier) analysis to a qualitative (aptitudinal) analysis using an expanded list of chefs-de-race in which all generations are treated equally

• Grouped sires by aptitudes defining qualities of “essence or character” passed on at stud

• Focused on the “type” of horse resulting from the combined influence of his chefs-de-race where “type” is best understood in terms of structural and physiological differences between, for example, Sea-Bird II and Tudor Minstrel.

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY

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A Brief History of Dosage

Page 15: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY

Contemporary Dosage Methodology (Dosage: Pedigree and Performance):

• Retains the concept of relatively few defining ancestors

• Fuses the quantitative and qualitative aspects of Vuillier and Varola.

• Emphasizes the influence of inherited prepotent speed

• Makes the analysis more accessible by limiting it to four generations

• Includes statistical methods to facilitate interpretation and to observe patterns

There are five aptitudinal groups aligning with positions on the speed spectrum:

Speed “Stamina”

Speed at shorter distances Speed at longer distances

BRILLIANT INTERMEDIATE CLASSIC SOLID PROFESSIONAL2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0

A Brief History of Dosage

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Page 16: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY

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A Brief History of DosageContemporary Dosage Methodology

Every chef-de-race is assigned a predictable aptitudinal type based on the real-world performance of his descendants

The contribution to type of a chef-de-race declines with each succeeding remote generation

The result is a Dosage Profile (DP) in the format:

B Points - I Points - C Points - S Points - P Points (e.g, Zenyatta, DP 6-3-14-1-0)

The Dosage Index (DI) is the speed/stamina ratio (e.g., Zenyatta, DI 2.00)

The Center of Distribution (CD) is the point along the speed spectrum corresponding to the combined influence of all chefs-de-race in the pedigree (e.g., Zenyatta, CD 0.58)

For both the DI and CD, the higher the number the greater the shift to speed.

Speed “Stamina”

Speed at shorter distances Speed at longer distances

BRILLIANT INTERMEDIATE CLASSIC SOLID PROFESSIONAL2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0

Page 17: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY

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Sire Pedigree/Racing Career vs Stud Performance

SLEWPY’S PEDIGREE: KINGMAMBO’S PEDIGREE:

By Seattle Slew By Mr. Prospector

Triple Crown winner; Classic sire Sprinter; Sire of sprinter/milers

Out of Rare Bouquet Out of Miesque

Dam of SWs at 8 1/2f, 9f and 10f Two-time BC Mile winner

SLEWPY’S RACE RECORD: KINGMAMBO’S RACE RECORD:

At 2: 1st Young America S (G1); 8 1/2f At 3: 1st Poule d’Essai des Poulains (Fr-1), 8f

At 3: 1st Meadowlands Cup (G1); 10f At 3: 1st Prix Du Moulin de Longchamp (Fr-1); 8f

At 3: 1st Paterson H (G2); 9f At 3: 1st St. James Palace S (Eng-1); 8f

SWs BY SLEWPY: SWs BY KINGMAMBO:

66% stakes wins under a mile 5% stakes wins under a mile

AWD 7.07f AWD 8.95f

Page 18: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

SIRE AWD AS RUNNER (F) AWD AS SIRE (F) DIFFERENCE (F)MARQUETRY 9.07 6.65 -2.42LOST CODE 8.91 7.06 -1.85THEATRICAL 11.00 9.23 -1.77IN EXCESS 8.94 7.63 -1.31SLEW O' GOLD 9.88 8.64 -1.24CRYPTOCLEARANCE 9.38 8.29 -1.09TABASCO CAT 9.40 8.32 -1.08AWESOME AGAIN 9.50 8.44 -1.06GULCH 7.00 8.01 1.01CITY ZIP 6.13 7.35 1.22DISTORTED HUMOR 7.10 8.39 1.29CHIEF'S CROWN 8.20 9.60 1.40MORE THAN READY 5.92 7.55 1.63

Track Performance vs Stud Performance for Some Prominent Sires(5+ Stakes Wins as a Runner and 30+ Progeny Stakes Wins)

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY

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Page 19: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY

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CATEGORY AWD ADI ACDALL RACES 8.10 3.25 0.71BY SURFACE:DIRT 7.76 3.56 0.77SYNTHETIC 7.85 2.76 0.69TURF 8.83 2.57 0.58

BY GENERAL DISTANCE:<8F 6.27 4.01 0.848 TO 10F 8.68 2.94 0.67>10F 11.78 2.11 0.46

BY AGE:2YO 7.22 3.65 0.793YO 8.16 3.22 0.72OLDER 8.27 3.14 0.69

BY SEX:MALE 8.21 3.23 0.71FEMALE 7.94 3.23 0.71

BY GRADE:G1 9.08 2.80 0.64G2 8.57 2.97 0.67G3 8.24 3.09 0.70UNGRADED 7.63 3.50 0.75

Summary Dosage Data (1983-2010)

Page 20: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY

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CATEGORY ADI ACDALL RACES 3.25 0.71BY SPECIFIC DISTANCE:

5.50F 4.05 0.826.00F 4.29 0.876.50F 3.78 0.827.00F 3.76 0.828.00F 3.01 0.698.32F 3.31 0.738.50F 3.06 0.699.00F 2.87 0.649.50F 2.52 0.57

10.00F 2.51 0.5711.00F 2.11 0.4812.00F 2.04 0.43

Summary Dosage Data (1983-2010)

Page 21: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY

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DI= -0.36xDistance + 6.13

Correlation Coefficient = 0.95

0.00

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4.00

5.00

5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 11.00 12.00 13.00

Avera

ge D

I

Distance (furlongs)

Average DI vs Distance

North American Open Stakes, 1983-2010

Page 22: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

CD = -0.07xDistance + 1.28

Correlation Coefficient = 0.97

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 11.00 12.00 13.00

Avera

ge C

D

Distance (furlongs)

Average CD vs Distance

North American Open Stakes, 1983-2010

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY

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Page 23: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY

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-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 18.00 20.00 22.00

Avera

ge C

D

Distance (furlongs)

Avg. CD vs Distance(North America, Europe, Australia, Hong Kong, Japan & South Africa

Linear (Australia)

Linear (Europe)

Linear (Hong Kong)

Linear (Japan)

Linear (North America

(Dirt))

Australia

Europe

Hong Kong

Japan

North America (Dirt)

North America (Turf)

South Africa

The Universality of Dosage

Page 24: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY

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Generic Aptitudinal Types

Distance: Sprint Route

Page 25: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

Generic Aptitudinal Types

Distance: Sprint Route

Surface: Dirt Turf Dirt Turf

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY

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Page 26: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

Generic Aptitudinal Types

Distance: Sprint Route

Surface: Dirt Turf Dirt Turf

Maturity: Early Late Early Late Early Late Early Late

SDE SDL STE STL RDE RDL RTE RTL

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY

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Page 27: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY

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DP PATTERN SYMBOL ACD %SPR %TURF %2YODOMINANT APTITUDE P>B,I,S,C -0.56 14.7% 55.3% 7.6%CLASSIC (C) PTS C>20 0.46 13.5% 50.8% 8.1%"DOWN-THE-LADDER" B>I>C>S>P 1.11 45.7% 18.6% 15.2%"TRIPLE ZERO" I=0,S=0,P=0 0.94 35.9% 32.2% 16.5%

"WING" BREEDING B,P>I,C,S 0.18 26.7% 41.7% 7.5%

ALL PATTERNS 0.71 31.3% 31.2% 13.0%

Extreme DP PatternsDosage Profile patterns for the highest and lowest percentage of:

sprint SWs (%SPR),

turf SWs (%TURF) and

juvenile SWs (%2YO)

They represent the extremes of aptitudinal type in the distance,

surface and maturity sub-categories

Page 28: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY

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Dosage and Aptitudinal TypeAPTITUDINAL TYPE TRAITS ACD

%SPR↑ 1.11EARLY-DEVELOPING DIRT SPRINTERS (SDE) %T↓ 1.11 Avg CD = 1.05

%2YO↑ 0.94%SPR↑ 1.11

LATE-DEVELOPING DIRT SPRINTERS (SDL) %T↓ 1.11 Avg CD = 1.02%2YO↓ 0.18%SPR↑ 1.11

EARLY-DEVELOPING TURF SPRINTERS (STE) %T↑ -0.56 Avg CD = 0.83%2YO↑ 0.94%SPR↑ 1.11

LATE-DEVELOPING TURF SPRINTERS (STL) %T↑ -0.56 Avg CD = 0.66%2YO↓ 0.18%SPR↓ 0.46

EARLY-DEVELOPING DIRT ROUTERS (RDE) %T↓ 1.11 Avg CD = 0.75%2YO↑ 0.94%SPR↓ 0.46

LATE-DEVELOPING DIRT ROUTERS (RDL) %T↓ 1.11 Avg CD = 0.65%2YO↓ 0.18%SPR↓ 0.46

EARLY-DEVELOPING TURF ROUTERS (RTE) %T↑ -0.56 Avg CD = 0.53%2YO↑ 0.94%SPR↓ 0.46

LATE-DEVELOPING TURF ROUTERS (RTL) %T↑ -0.56 Avg CD = 0.32%2YO↓ 0.18

Page 29: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY

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Northern Prospect 7688% SPR, 4% TURF, 27% 2YO

Mr. Prospector 70 (BC)

Raise a Native 61 (B)Native Dancer 50 (IC)

Raise You 46

Gold Digger 62Nashua 52 (IC)

Sequence 46

Sleek Dancer 68

Northern Dancer 61 (BC)Nearctic 54

Natalma 57

Victorine 62My Babu 45 (B)

Pandora 47

Fortunate Bid 71

Lucky Debonair 6264% SPR, 5% TURF, 9% 2YO

Vertex 54The Rhymer 38

Kanace 45

Fresh As Fresh 57Count Fleet 40 (C)

Airy 45

Biddy Big 66

Palestinian 46Dolly Whisk 36

Gemma

Spoony 52Devil Diver 39

Bimlette 44

Fortunate Prospect, dkb/br.h., 1981DP 12-2-10-0-0, DI 3.80, CD 1.08Won sprint stakes at 2, 3, 4 and 5

A model SDE type

Page 30: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY

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His Majesty 68 (C)2% SPR, 63% TURF, 4% 2YO

Ribot 52 (CP)

Tenerani 44Bellini 37

Tofanella 31

Romanella 43El Greco 34

Barbara Burrini 37

Flower Bowl 52

Alibhai 38 (C)Hyperion 30 (BC)

Teresina 20

Flower Bed 46Beau Pere 27

Boudoir 38

Aletta Maria 85

Diesis 8011% SPR, 89% TURF, 0% 2YO

Sharpen Up 69 (BC)Atan 61

Rocchetta 61

Doubly Sure 71Reliance 62 (SP)

Soft Angels 63

Pharlette 80

Pharly 74Lyphard 69 (C)

Comely 66

Gantlette 74Run The Gantlet 68 (P)

Her Honor 54

Cetewayo, b.h., 1994DP 3-0-29-1-7, DI 0.78, CD -0.23

Won turf marathon stakes at 4, 5, 6 and 8A model RTL type

Page 31: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY

CATEGORY ADI ACD PTSKENTUCKY DERBY WINNERS, 1983-2011 (29) 2.84 0.66 26.34HORSE OF THE YEAR, 1983-2010 (28) 2.83 0.77 24.93 LEADING EARNERS, 1983-2010 (28) 2.70 0.66 28.00 PERFORMANCE HORSES (85) 2.82 0.70 26.39LEADING SIRES, 1983-2010 (28) 3.13 0.79 39.50 LEADING BROODMARE SIRES, 1983-2010 (28) 2.64 0.60 43.79 KENTUCKY BROODMARES OF THE YEAR, 1983-2010 (28) 3.50 0.64 36.96 BREEDING HORSES (84) 3.05 0.67 39.69

TOTAL ELITE (169) 2.92 0.68 33.02

OPEN STAKES WINNERS, 1983-2010 (25,926) 3.25 0.71 23.82

Dosage Figures for ElitePerformance and Breeding Thoroughbreds Since 1983

Elite breeding horses have about 50% more total points in their Dosage Profile

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Page 32: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5

Dis

trib

uti

on

DI Range

DI Distribution Among Open SWs Since 1983

DI<2.00 DI>4.00

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY

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Page 33: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

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Dis

trib

uti

on

DI Range

DI Distribution Among Steeplechase Champions Since 1948

DI<2.00 DI>4.00

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY

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Page 34: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

0.0

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80.0

90.0

100.0

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Dis

trib

uti

on

DI Range

DI Distribution Among Open SWs and Steeplechase Champions Since 1948

Open SWs

Steeplechase Champions

DI<2.00 DI>4.00

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY

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Page 35: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110

Avera

ge D

I an

d A

bera

ge D

ista

nce

Number of Races

Moving Average of DI and Distance for Juvenile Races

Throughout the Year (1983-2010)

Distance

DI

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY

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Page 36: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY

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DI = 0.032 x Year - 61.66

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

DI of

Derb

y W

inn

er

Year

DI vs Year for Kentucky Derby Winners

CD = 0.012 x Year - 22.95

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

CD

of

Derb

y W

inn

er

Year

CD vs Year for Kentucky Derby Winners

Page 37: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

Dual Qualifiers

Strict Definition (for the purpose of statistical analysis):

A three-year-old with a DI of 4.00 or less which was

weighted within 10 pounds of the EFH highweight or

was named champion in another country at two.

Conceptual Definition (expressing aptitudinal type):

A three-year-old notionally bred to stay a classic distance

and which demonstrated extraordinary ability as a two-

year-old (i.e., a pedigree for distance; inherent high

class; early maturity).

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY

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Page 38: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY

YEARS DERBY PREAKNESS BELMONT ALL TC RACES

2010-2019DQ WINNERS 50.0% 100.0% 0.0% 50.0%

IV 1.77 3.00 0.00 1.85

2000-2009DQ WINNERS 11.1% 42.9% 60.0% 33.3%

IV 0.61 1.87 3.20 1.72

1990-1999DQ WINNERS 55.6% 66.7% 60.0% 60.7%

IV 2.17 3.47 3.00 2.77

1980-1989DQ WINNERS 80.0% 20.0% 50.0% 50.0%

IV 4.15 1.45 3.71 3.08

1973-1979DQ WINNERS 100.0% 71.4% 57.1% 76.2%

IV 5.05 2.67 2.81 3.34

1973-2011DQ WINNERS 59.5% 50.0% 54.5% 54.8%

IV 2.80 2.46 3.09 2.73

Dual Qualifiers in Triple Crown Races Since 1973

37

Page 39: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY

Dual Qualifiers in Triple Crown Races Since 1973

TC RACE DQs $BET $WON $PROFIT ROIDERBY 135 270.00 367.20 97.20 36%PREAKNESS 67 134.00 130.60 -3.40 -3%BELMONT 64 128.00 256.90 128.90 101%ALL SINCE 1973 266 532.00 754.70 222.70 42%

38

Page 40: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY

Dual Qualifiers in Triple Crown Races Since 1973

TC RACE DQs $BET $WON $PROFIT ROIDERBY 135 270.00 367.20 97.20 36%PREAKNESS 67 134.00 130.60 -3.40 -3%BELMONT 64 128.00 256.90 128.90 101%ALL SINCE 1973 266 532.00 754.70 222.70 42%

ALL SINCE 1990 152 304.00 435.50 131.50 43%

39

Page 41: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY

DUAL QUALIFIERS IN THE DERBY1973-1989 1990-2011

Races 17 20DQ Wins 15 7%DQ Wins 88.2% 35.0%DQ Starters 54 83All Starters 267 378%DQ Starters 20.2% 22.0%IV 4.37 1.59

40

Page 42: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY

DUAL QUALIFIERS IN THE DERBY1973-1989 1990-2011

Races 17 20DQ Wins 15 7%DQ Wins 88.2% 35.0%DQ Starters 54 83All Starters 267 378%DQ Starters 20.2% 22.0%IV 4.37 1.59

DUAL QUALIFIERS IN THE PREAKNESS & BELMONT1973-1989 1990-2011

Races 34 33DQ Wins 16 19%DQ Wins 47.1% 57.6%DQ Starters 53 72All Starters 308 350%DQ Starters 17.2% 20.6%IV 2.74 2.80

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Page 43: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

“Conceptual Dual Qualifiers” As Juveniles

• Winning Colors – was 2-for-2, handily defeating eventual

champion Epitome in first start; maintained form as early three-

year-old.

• Sunday Silence – broke maiden by 6 in 1:09.2 then lost by a head to

the Derby winter book favorite; also maintained form at three.

• Grindstone – broke maiden in June with best juvenile speed figure

until October and was injured in stakes debut; returned to form at

three.

• Funny Cide – competing in state-bred races, earned 4th best juvenile

Beyer speed figure; reproduced form in open company early at

three.

• Smarty Jones – also competing in state-bred races, earned highest

juvenile Beyer speed figure and remained undefeated through the

Preakness.

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY

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Page 44: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

General Aptitudinal Type of Derby WinnersSince 1981

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY

43

DI<2 DI>=2 DI<2 and 4th or Better in Final Prep

% Wins 42 58 42

IV 1.5 0.8 1.8

% ROI -3 -46 +20

Page 45: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY

DI<3 DI=3+Mean 110.2 106.8Observations 10 11P(T<=t) two-tail 0.05

t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances

44

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117

DI

BSF

Kentucky Derby Winner DI vs BSF (1991-2011)

Page 46: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

-80 -75 -70 -65 -60 -55 -50 -45 -40

DI

PF

Kentucky Derby Winner DI vs PF (1995-2011)

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY

45

DI<3 DI=3+Mean -64.9 -54.3Observations 8 9P(T<=t) two-tail 0.03

t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances

Page 47: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY

46

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

CD

Year

Derby Winner CD by Year

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

116

118

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

BSF

Year

Derby Winner BSF by Year

Page 48: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY

47

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Avera

ge D

I

Finish Position

Kentucky Derby Average DI by Order of Finish (1946-

2011)

t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances

Finish 1-3 Finish 10+Mean DI 2.57 3.05

Observations 196 439

P(T<=t) two-tail 0.03

Page 49: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY

48

Final Comments

• Aptitudinal type correlates universally with general

performance type as defined by distance, racing surface

and age.

Page 50: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY

49

Final Comments

• Aptitudinal type correlates universally with general

performance type as defined by distance, racing surface

and age.

• Aptitudinal type can be measured using Dosage, a

pedigree classification method based on the speed

inherited from aptitudinally prepotent sires relatively

close up in a Thoroughbred pedigree.

Page 51: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY

50

Final Comments

• Aptitudinal type correlates universally with general

performance type as defined by distance, racing surface

and age.

• Aptitudinal type can be measured using Dosage, a

pedigree classification method based on the speed

inherited from aptitudinally prepotent sires relatively

close up in a Thoroughbred pedigree.

• The aptitudinal type of contemporary American

classic horses is unique (early maturity, breeding for

distance and exceptional class from the start of their

racing career) and distinguishes them from the majority

of their peers.

Page 52: Roman Presentation - BH Pedigree, Genetics and Performance Conference, Sept 2011

2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY