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TRANSCRIPT
1
Roofing and Asphalt
Brian Chambers President, Roofing and Asphalt
Roofing and Asphalt Highlights
A leading brand within a $10 billion market expected to strengthen
A Roofing Components business that we are growing at attractive
margins
A track record of financial performance despite weaker market conditions
A strong market position expected to continue generating mid-teen
operating margins on average
2
Source: Owens Corning management estimates based upon Principia Partners (2014) Residential Roofing Study.
Source: Owens Corning management estimates based upon Principia Partners (2014) Residential Roofing Study, RS Means (2014). Regional materials and labor for residential roofing.
Average roof size of 30 squares.
$10 Billion Residential Roofing Market
U.S. Steep-Slope Roofing Market
$9
$16$18 $18
$21
$29
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
Asphalt Tile Metal Wood Composite Slate
Installed Cost of a Typical Roof
Asphalt Shingles
55% Metal 13%
Tile 4%
Other 3%
Components 20%
Slate 5%
In T
ho
usa
nd
s o
f D
olla
rs
Asphalt Shingles – the Product of Choice
Materials Represent
30-50% of Installed Cost
3
U.S. Asphalt Shingle Market
Recent Market Volumes have Lagged Expectations Source: Asphalt Roofing Manufacturers Association - Summary of Asphalt Roofing Industry Shipments, National Association of Realtors, and management estimates assuming market
volumes are flat in Q4 2015.
MM Sq.
136
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15E
New Construction Repair & Remodeling
145 155
120 108
122 118 111 107 107
143 154 161
173
129 135
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U.S. Asphalt Shingle Re-Roof Demand Drivers
Replacement age
Average replacement age increased driven by technological
advances
Major storms & other weather events
Weather events drive demand and create early replacement of roofs
Weather-related demand estimated based on NOAA data and
insurance claims information
Economic factors
Existing home sales, consumer income, and borrowing capacity
affect consumer decisions on timing of re-roof
Imp
ac
t
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Low
High
U.S. Asphalt Shingle Market
Expect Modest Growth with Weather-Driven Upside Potential Source: Asphalt Roofing Manufacturers Association - Summary of Asphalt Roofing Industry Shipments. Management estimates based on data provided by National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA), National Association of Realtors, EIA, Moody’s Analytics, Oxford Economics reports, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
MM Sq.
6
Total 136 143 145 154 161 173 155 129 135 120 108 122 118 111 107 107
30 31 32 34 37 39 35 26 17 11 11 11 14 17 18 19
71 75 81 86 87 95
77 75
73 71 63 61 59 58 60 60
32 34
30 27 28 21
35
25 23
21 28 31 34 30 23 23
3 3 2
7 8
18
8
3 22
17 6
19 11 6 6 5
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15E
New Construction Age Related/Economic Other Weather Events Major Storms
26% 35%
23%
29%
26%
33%
27% 23% 28%
18% 16% 16%
'07-'11 Avg
'12-'14 Avg
2015 Fcst
Seasonal Industry Shipment Profile
Historically, about 25% of full-year
manufacturer volumes shipped in Q1
In 2012–2014, heavy winter discounts
drove distributor channel stocking and
pulled disproportional volume into Q1
Healthier 2015 shipment pattern more in
line with seasonal contractor demand
Seasonal Demand Pattern Returning to Historical Norms
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2015 Forecast based on Asphalt Roofing Manufacturers Association data and management estimates assuming a flat full-year market.
Source: Asphalt Roofing Manufacturers Association - Summary of Asphalt Roofing Industry Shipments. 7
The Total Protection Roofing System
1
2
3
4
5
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7 Owens Corning® Hip & Ridge Shingles
VentSure® Exhaust Ventilation Products
Owens Corning® Shingles
Owens Corning® Starter Shingles
ProArmor® Synthetic
Underlayment Products
WeatherLock® Self-Sealing Ice
& Water Barrier Products
VentSure® Soffit in InFlow®
Intake Ventilation Products
Components Enhance Roof Performance and Deliver Strong Margins
8
Expanding Our Components Portfolio
Providing Total Roofing Solutions and Enabling Adjacent Growth
ProArmor ® Ice & Water Shield
9
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E
A Growing Business
Roofing Components Revenue Growing Double Digits
Components Revenue
10 Source: Owens Corning management estimates.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
2012 2013 2014 LTM
Averaging 16% EBIT Margins Since 2012
EBIT as % of Sales Sales – Millions of $
Roofing and Asphalt Financial Performance
11 LTM reflects actual results Q4 2014 - Q3 2015.
Source: Owens Corning SEC filings.
Asphalt Deflation
12
Rapid Decline in Oil Prices Delays Asphalt Return to Parity Source: Poten & Partners average flux price (Selling Prices Roofing Flux); U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) average WTI Spot Price FOB Cushing, OK.
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
Roofing Flux Selling Price / 90-Day Lagged WTI
Average
Product Line
National Footprint
Brand Preference
Material Science
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Roofing and Asphalt Sources of Differentiation
Leading Brand & Strong Market Position
Owens Corning is Well Positioned to Service Contractors & Builders with Partners in All Channels
Roofing Distribution
(1-Step)
Building Materials
Distribution
(2-Step)
Home Centers
Pro Chain
Lumberyard
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Unique High-Performance Products
Duration® Shingles
Differentiated Product in the Market 15
Creating Value Through Material Science
Chopped
Glass Mat
Asphalt
Laminate Shingle
Driving Cost Advantage, Product Quality, Supply Flexibility
Blending science
Oxidization capability
Refinery
relationships
Shingle composition improvement
Joint product innovation & testing
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Facility
Roofing
Components
Asphalt
Portland
Compton
Denver
Irving
Houston
Minneapolis
Kearny
Savannah Jacksonville
Oklahoma City
Summit
Atlanta
Medina
Brookville
Memphis
Brentwood
West Midwest
Southwest
Northeast
Southeast
Strong Manufacturing Network
A Flexible National Network to Serve Regional Demand
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Delivering Strong Returns
Expect modest mid-term shingle demand growth with upside potential
from weather-driven demand
Expanding our Components business with value-added products for our
distributors and contractors
Investing in key differentiators to maintain our strong market position
Confident in sustaining mid-teen operating margins on average
Strong Business Performance in an Improving Market 18
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Questions and Discussion
Brian Chambers President, Roofing and Asphalt