7/28/2019 Roulette Model

1/8

38 Options 38

1 2 3 Insurance Policy 63%

4 5 6 Average #REF!

7 8 9

10 11 12

13 14 15 Option VaR Coverage Probability

16 17 18 1 24 24 63.16%

19 20 21 2 12 24 63.16%22 23 24 3 8 24 63.16%

25 26 27 4 6 24 63.16%

28 29 30 5 5 24 63.16%

31 32 33 6 4 24 63.16%

34 35 36

37

7/28/2019 Roulette Model

2/8

Bin Range Count Probability

38 5 3.3%

1 6 4.0%

2 3 2.0%

3 5 3.3%

Return Net Simulation 4 6 4.0%

35 12 #REF! 5 7 4.7%

17 6 #REF! 6 5 3.3%11 4 #REF! 7 2 1.3%

8 3 #REF! 8 5 3.3%

6 2 #REF! 9 6 4.0%

5 2 #REF! 10 4 2.7%

11 5 3.3%

12 3 2.0%

13 2 1.3%

14 5 3.3%

15 5 3.3%

16 2 1.3%

17 1 0.7%

18 2 1.3%19 4 2.7%

20 2 1.3%

21 4 2.7%

22 3 2.0%

23 6 4.0%

24 7 4.7%

25 7 4.7%

26 1 0.7%

27 4 2.7%

28 4 2.7%

29 4 2.7%

30 3 2.0%

31 2 1.3%

32 2 1.3%

33 3 2.0%

34 4 2.7%

35 3 2.0%

36 2 1.3%

37 6 4.0%

150 100%

7/28/2019 Roulette Model

3/8

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

7/28/2019 Roulette Model

4/8

9 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38

7/28/2019 Roulette Model

5/8

Number Single Two Three Four Five Six

14 12 #REF! 4 #REF!

37

4

4

6

385

5

6

8

9

18

19

20

24

29

1

27

8

23

12

6

17

30

19

25

3812

35

28

15

38

25

36

24

1

10

24

21

38

3

37

3

21

15

31

7/28/2019 Roulette Model

6/8

28

36

23

33

16

27

94

6

19

5

37

6

2

5

34

29

2

3

1

32

26

14

9

22

3

19

1523

5

23

13

1

25

18

2

34

27

9

33

11

24

21

20

11

10

5

7/28/2019 Roulette Model

7/8

38

15

29

14

24

10

2528

32

8

12

30

8

11

22

4

4

11

11

14

29

9

37

34

15

13

7

2521

27

22

25

35

28

5

37

23

35

30

33

16

24

7

31

9

1

24

7/28/2019 Roulette Model

8/8

1

34

10

25

23

8

373

4

14