routing in 2016, ietf 98
TRANSCRIPT
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Routing in 2016
Geoff HustonChief Scientist, APNIC
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Through the Routing Lens
ThereareveryfewwaystoassembleasingleviewoftheentireInternet
ThelensofroutingisoneofthewaysinwhichinformationrelatingtotheentirereachableInternetisboughttogether
Evenso,itsnotaperfectlens…
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1994: Introduction of CIDR
2001: The Great Internet Boom and Bust
2005: Broadband to the Masses
2009: The GFC hits the Internet
2011: Address Exhaustion
Routing the InternetThis is a view pulled together from each of the routing peers of Route-Views
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2015-2016 in detail
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2015-2016 in detail
average growth trend
Route Views Peers
RIS Peers
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Routing Indicators for IPv4
Routing prefixes – growing by some 54,000 prefixes per year
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Routing Indicators for IPv4
AS Numbers– growing by some 3,450 prefixes per year
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Routing Indicators for IPv4More Specifics are still taking up one half of the routing table
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Routing Indicators for IPv4
But the average size of a routing advertisement is getting smaller
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Routing Indicators for IPv4
Address Exhaustion is now visible in the extent of advertised address space
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Routing Indicators for IPv4The “shape” of inter-AS interconnection appears to be relatively steady, as the Average AS Path length has been steady through the year
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AS Adjacencies (Route-Views)
6,202AS6939HURRICANE- Hurricane Electric, Inc.,US5,069AS174COGENT-174- Cogent Communications,US4,767AS3356LEVEL3- Level 3 Communications, Inc.,US2,632AS3549LVLT-3549- Level 3 Communications, Inc.,US2,397 AS7018 ATT-INTERNET4- AT&TServices, Inc., US1,959AS209CENTURYLINK-US-LEGACY-QWEST- Qwest,US1,953AS57463NETIX,BG1,691AS37100SEACOM-AS,MU1,620AS34224 NETERRA-AS,BG
19,700outof57,064ASNshave1or2ASAdjacencies(72%)
3,062ASNshave10ormoreadjacencies
22ASNshave>1,000adjacencies
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What happened in 2016 in V4?
RoutingBusinessasusual– despiteIPv4addressexhaustion!
• Fromthelookofthegrowthplots,itsbusinessasusual,despitetheincreasingpressuresonIPv4addressavailability
• ThenumberofentriesintheIPv4default-freezoneisnowheadingto700,000bytheendof2017
• Thepaceofgrowthoftheroutingtableisstillrelativelyconstantat~54,000newentriesand3,400newAS’speryear• IPv4addressexhaustionisnotchangingthis!
• Instead,weareadvertisingshorterprefixesintotheroutingsystem
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How can the IPv4 network continue to grow when we are running out of IPv4 addresses?
WearenowrecyclingoldaddressesbackintotheroutingsystemSomeoftheseaddressesaretransferredinwaysthatarerecordedintheregistrysystem,whileothersarebeing“leased”withoutanyclearregistrationentrythatdescribesthelessee
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IPv4 Advertised Address “Age”
80% of all new addresses announced in 2010 were allocated or assigned within the past 12 months
2% of all new addresses announced in 2010 were >= 20 years ‘old’ (legacy)
2010
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IPv4 Advertised Address “Age”
24 % of all new addresses announced in 2016 were allocated or assigned within the past 12 months
39 % of all new addresses announced in 2016 were >= 20 years ‘old’(legacy)
2016
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IPv4: Advertised vs Unadvertised Addresses
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IPv4: Unadvertised Addresses
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IPv4:Assigned vs Recovered
Growth in Advertised Addresses
Change in the Unadvertised Address Pool
RIR Allocations
“recovery”
“draw down”
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IPv4 in 2016
Theequivalentof1.8/8swasaddedtotheroutingtableacross2016• Approximately1.3/8swereassignedbyRIRsin2015• 0.7/8’sassignedbyAfrinic• 0.2/8swereassignedbyAPNIC,RIPENCC(Last/8allocations)
• 0.1/8swereassignedbyARIN,LACNIC
• Andanetof0.5/8’swererecoveredfromtheUnadvertisedPool
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The Route-Views view of IPv6
World IPv6 Day
IANA IPv4 Exhaustion
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2015-2016 in detail
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Routing Indicators for IPv6
Routing prefixes – growing by some 6,000 prefixes per year
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Routing Indicators for IPv6
AS Numbers– growing by some 1,700 prefixes per year (which is half the V4 growth)
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Routing Indicators for IPv6
More Specifics now take up more than one third of the routing table
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Routing Indicators for IPv6
The average size of a routing advertisement is getting smaller
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Routing Indicators for IPv6
Advertised Address span is growing at a linear rate
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Routing Indicators for IPv6The “shape” of inter-AS interconnection in IPv6 appears to be steady, as the Average AS Path length has been held steady
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AS Adjacencies (Route Views)
9,105outof13,197ASNshave1or2ASAdjacencies(69%)917ASNshave10ormoreadjacencies4ASNshave>1,000adjacencies
3,276AS6939HURRICANE- HurricaneElectric,Inc.,US1,607AS174COGENT-174- CogentCommunications,US1,310AS3356LEVEL3- Level3Communications,Inc.,US1,112AS37100SEACOM-AS,MU
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IPv6 in 2015
• OverallIPv6InternetgrowthintermsofBGPissteadyatsome6,000routeentriesp.a.
ThisisgrowthofBGProuteobjectsis1/9ofthegrowthrateoftheIPv4network– ascomparedtotheASgrowthratewhichis1/2oftheIPv4ASnumbergrowthrate
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What to expect
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BGP Size Projections
FortheInternetthisisatimeofextremeuncertainty• RegistryIPv4addressrunout• Uncertaintyovertheimpactsofmarket-mediatedmovementsofIPv4ontheroutingtable
• UncertaintyoverthetimingofIPv6takeup leadstoamixedresponsetoIPv6sofar,andnoclearindicatoroftriggerpointsforchangeforthoseremainingIPv4-onlynetworks
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V4 - Daily Growth Rates
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V4 - Daily Growth Rates
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V4 - Relative Daily Growth Rates
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V4 - Relative Daily Growth Rates
GrowthintheV4networkappearstobeconstantatalongtermaverageof120additionalroutesperday,orsome45,000additionalroutesperyear
GiventhattheV4addresssupplyhasrunoutthisimpliesfurtherreductionsinaddresssizeinroutes,whichinturnimpliesevergreaterrelianceonNATs
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IPv4 BGP Table Size Predictions
Jan2013 441,0002014 488,0002015 530,0002016 586,000 580,0002017 646,000 628,000 620,0002018 700,000 675,000 670,0002019 754,000 722,000 710,0002020 808,000 768,000 760,0002021 862,000 815,0002022 916,000
Jan2016PREDICTION
Jan2015PREDICTION
Jan2017PREDICTION
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V6 - Daily Growth Rates
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V6 - Relative Growth Rates
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V6 - Relative Growth RatesGrowthintheV6networkappearstobeincreasing,butinrelativetermsthisisslowingdown.
Earlyadopters,whohavetendedtobetheV4transitproviders,havealreadyreceivedIPv6allocationandareroutingthem.ThetrailingedgeofIPv6adoptionaregenerallycomposedofstubedgenetworksinIPv4.ManyofthesenetworksappearnottohavemadeanyvisiblemovesinIPv6asyet.
Ifweseeachangeinthispicturethegrowthtrendwilllikelybeexponential.Butitsnotclearwhensuchatippingpointwilloccur
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IPv6 BGP Table Size predictions
Jan2014 16,1002015 21,2002016 27,0002017 35,0002018 50,000 43,0002019 65,000 51,0002020 86,000 59,0002021 113,000 67,0002022150,000 75,000
ExponentialModelLinearModel
Range of potential outcomes
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BGP Table Growth
Nothinginthesefiguressuggeststhatthereiscauseforurgentalarm-- atpresent
• TheoveralleBGP growthratesforIPv4areholdingatamodestlevel,andtheIPv6table,althoughitisgrowingatafasterrelativerate,isstillsmallinsizeinabsoluteterms
• Aslongaswearepreparedtolivewithinthetechnicalconstraintsofthecurrentroutingparadigm,theInternet’suseofBGPwillcontinuetobeviableforsometimeyet
• Nothingismeltingintermsofthesizeoftheroutingtableasyet
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BGP Updates
• WhataboutthelevelofupdatesinBGP?• Let’slookattheupdateloadfromasingleeBGPfeedinaDFZcontext
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IPv4 Announcements and Withdrawals
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IPv4 Convergence Performance
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Updates in IPv4 BGP
Thenumberofupdatesperinstabilityeventhasbeenrelativelyconstant
Whichisgood,butwhyisthishappening?
LikelycontributorstothisoutcomearethedampingeffectofwidespreaduseoftheMRAIintervalbyeBGPspeakers,andthetopologyfactors,asseenintherelativelyconstantV4ASPathLength
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V6 Announcements and Withdrawals
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V6 Convergence Performance
High noise components in IPv6
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V6 Updated prefixes per day
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V6 Updates per event
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Updates in IPv6
BGPRouteUpdatesareveryunequallydistributedacrosstheprefixset– theyappeartoaffectaverysmallnumberofprefixeswhichstandoutwellabovetheaverage
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Updates in IPv6
Thebusiest50IPv6prefixesaccountedfor1/2ofallBGPIPv6prefixupdates
http://bgpupdates.potaroo.net/instability/v6-bgpupd.html
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Compared to IPv4
IPv6 IPv4
http://bgpupdates.potaroo.net/instability/bgpupd.htmlhttp://bgpupdates.potaroo.net/instability/v6-bgpupd.html
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Updates in IPv6 BGP
IPv6routingbehaviour issimilartoIPv4behaviour:
Mostannouncedprefixesarestableallofthetime
Andasmoreprefixesareannounced,mostoftheseannouncedprefixesarehighlystable.
Butforasmallnumberofprefixesweobservehighlyunstablebehaviours thatdominateIPv6BGPupdateswhichappeartobemoreunstable(relatively)thanIPv4
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Today’s State of Routing
“MostlyHarmless”
Thelevelsofgrowthofthetables,andthelevelsofgrowthofupdatesinBGPdonotposeanyimmediateconcerns
Thetrendsarepredictableandsteady,sonetworkoperatorscanplanwellinadvanceforthecapacityofroutingequipmenttomeettheirfutureneeds
But:
Theadvancedlevelsofinstabilitybyasmallnumberofnetworksarealwaysannoying!Howcanwepreventthesehighlyunstableprefixes?
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That’s it!