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Three Questions about Strategy
Joshua RovnerDepartment of Strategy and Policy
U.S. Naval War College
February 2012
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Why Theory Matters
Theory simplifies the complex.
Theory provides a gateway to critical analysis.
Theory helps distinguish good analogies frombad ones.
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Why These Theorists Matter
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1.What is war?
2.What is strategy?
3.What is victory?
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Passion Chance
Politics
What is War?
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Absolute War and Real War
Absolute War
1. A single event divorced from politics
2. Simultaneous all-out force from both
sides; a pure test of strength3. A complete and decisive victory
Real War
1. Governed by politics
2. Inhibited by fog, friction, and
chance
3. Means are partial or total, ends are
limited or unlimited; result is never
final
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What is War?
war is not merely an act of policy
but a true political instrument, a
continuation of political
intercourse, carried on with other
means. p.87
War is a clash between major
interests, which is resolved by
bloodshed p.149
act of force to compel our enemy
to do our will. p.75
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an act of force
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Why Violence Matters
1. It creates fog.
2. It creates friction.
3. It arouses passion.
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to compel our enemy
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Brute Force and Coercion
war is not merely an act of policy but a true
political instrument, a continuation of political
intercourse, carried on with other means.
-On War, p. 87
The power to hurt is bargaining power. To
exploit it is diplomacy vicious diplomacy, but
diplomacy.
-Thomas Schelling
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to do our will.
Unlimited objective: to
overthrow the enemy--to render
him politically helpless or militarily
impotent, thus forcing him to sign
whatever peace we please;
Or limited objective: merely to
occupy some of his frontier-districtsso that we can annex them or use
them for bargaining at the peace
negotiations.
p. 69
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What is War?
War is a matter of vital
importance to the State; the
province of life or death; the
road to survival or ruin.
p.63
as water has no constantform, there are in war no
constant conditions.
p. 101
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Five Fundamental Factors
1. Moral influence
2. Weather3. Terrain
4. Command
5. Doctrine
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Moral Influence
that which causes
the people to be in
harmony with theirleaders, so that they
will accompany them
in life and unto death
without fear of mortal
peril.
p. 64.
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Weather and Terrain
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Command
the generalsqualities of wisdom,
sincerity, humanity,
courage, and
strictness.
p. 65
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Doctrine
organization, control, assignment of
appropriate ranks to officers, regulation of
supply routes, and the provision of principal
items used by the army.
p. 65
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What is Strategy?
(Strategy) is the use of an
engagement for the purpose of
the war.
Strategic theory must therefore
study the engagement in terms
of its possible results and of
the moral and psychologicalforces that largely determine
its course.
p. 177.
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Is Strategy an Illusion?
Fog
FrictionChance
Passion
Interaction
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How do you win?
1. Find a genius.
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2. If you cant find a genius, find the center of gravity
and concentrate force against it.
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3. Obey the principle of continuity but do not cross the
culminating point of victory.
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4. Maintain civilian control
If war is part of policy, policy will
determine its character. . . .Policy,
of course, will not extend its
influence to operational details.Political considerations do not
determine the posting of guards
or the employment of patrols.
But they are the more influential
in the planning of war, of the
campaign, and often even of the
battle.
p. 606
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What is Strategy
to win one hundred
victories in one
hundred battles is notthe acme of skill. To
subdue the enemy
without fighting is theacme of skill.
p. 77
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How do you win?
Sunzis hierarchy
1. Attack the enemys strategy
2. Attack the enemys alliances
3. Attack the enemys army
4. Attack the enemys cities
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How do you win?
Intelligence
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Net Assessment
Know the enemy andknow yourself; in a
hundred battles you will
never be in peril.
p. 84
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Deception
All warfare is based on deception.
Therefore, when capable, feign
incapacity; when active, inactivity.
When near, make it appear that you
are far away; when far away, that
you are near
Pretend inferiority and encourage
his arrogance.
pp. 66-67.
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Manuever When he concentrates, prepareagainst him; where he is strong,
avoid him.
Keep him under a strain andwear him down
Attack where he is unprepared;
sally out when he does not
expect you.
pp. 67-69
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5. Do not inhibit the generals
He whose
generals are able
and not interferedwith by the
sovereign will be
victorious.
p. 83.
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What is Victory?
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The Culminating Point of Victory
Once the expenditure of effort exceeds
the value of the political object, the
object must be renounced and peace
must follow.
p. 92
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In War the Result is Never Final
. . . even the ultimate outcome of a war is not
always to be regarded as final. The defeated
state often considers the outcome merely as a
transitory evil, for which a remedy may still be
found in political conditions at some later
date.
p. 80
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Criteria for Success
1.Political goals achieved
2.at a reasonable cost
3.with plans for adurable settlement in
place.
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What is Victory?
Your aim must be to
take All-under-Heaven
intact. Thus your troopsare not worn out and
your gains will be
complete.
p. 79
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Spectrum of Victory
Carthage Sunzi
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Bloodless Victory?
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Bloodless Victory?
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Parting Questions
1. How do you know when you have won?
2. How do you consolidate victory?
3. How do you convince the enemy that the
result of the war is final?
4. How do you create a durable peace?