run fast... run smart... run lean 1 agricultural trends and trade policies introduction global...

15
“Run Fast ... Run Smart ... Run Lean“ 1 AGRICULTURAL TRENDS AND TRADE POLICIES Introduction Global trends in agriculture Trade policies and economic development WTO Public Forum Geneva, September 26th, 2006

Upload: caleb-malloy

Post on 10-Dec-2015

218 views

Category:

Documents


1 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Run Fast... Run Smart... Run Lean 1 AGRICULTURAL TRENDS AND TRADE POLICIES Introduction Global trends in agriculture Trade policies and economic development

“Run Fast ... Run Smart ... Run Lean“

1

AGRICULTURAL TRENDS AND TRADE POLICIES

Introduction

Global trends in agriculture

Trade policies and economic development

WTO Public Forum Geneva, September 26th, 2006

Page 2: Run Fast... Run Smart... Run Lean 1 AGRICULTURAL TRENDS AND TRADE POLICIES Introduction Global trends in agriculture Trade policies and economic development

John Deere Public Affairs Worlwide

2

“Run Fast ... Run Smart ... Run Lean“

INTRODUCTION – A global CompanyDeere & Company in brief:

Founded in 1837 in Illinois by John Deere, a blacksmith. Long history of integrity and commitment to its customers.

Main activities: Agricultural Equipment (world leader), Construction Equipment, Commercial and Consumer equipment, Engines, Financial services.

56 factories worldwide. Manufacturing operations on 4 continents.

Distribution network: 160+ countries.Net sales and Revenues: 21,931 USD millions in FY 2005 AG equipment: 10,567 USD millions (“We feed the world”) R&D: 677 USD millions Employees: 47,423 on 31 Oct 2005

Page 3: Run Fast... Run Smart... Run Lean 1 AGRICULTURAL TRENDS AND TRADE POLICIES Introduction Global trends in agriculture Trade policies and economic development

John Deere Public Affairs Worlwide

3

“Run Fast ... Run Smart ... Run Lean“

Deere facilities in the world

Mannheim, Germany

Richards Bay, South Africa

Nigel, South Africa

Pune, India

Jiamusi, China

Stadtlohn, GermanyGummersbach, Germany

Horst, NetherlandsEnschede, Netherlands

Bruchsal, Germany

Zweibruecken, Germany

Arc-les-Gray, France

Saran, France

Madrid, SpainSantiago, Chile

Catalao, Brazil

Horizontina, Brazil

Rosario, Argentina

Saltillo, MexicoMonterrey, Mexico

Torreon, Mexico

Valley City, NDFargo, ND

Minneapolis, MN

Dubuque, IAHoricon, WI

Waterloo, IA

Moline, IL

East Moline, IL

Welland, Ontario

Edmonton, Alberta

Davenport, IA

Des Moines, IA

Langley, British Columbia

Ottumwa, IA

Springfield, MO

Coffeyville, KS

Thibodaux, LA

Fuquay-Varina, NC

Greeneville, TN

Augusta, GA

Kernersville, NC

Joensuu, FinlandWoodstock, Ontario

Rock Valley, IAKlemme, IA

Tokoroa, New Zealand

*

Tianjin, China

Poznan, Poland

Orenburg, Russia

Page 4: Run Fast... Run Smart... Run Lean 1 AGRICULTURAL TRENDS AND TRADE POLICIES Introduction Global trends in agriculture Trade policies and economic development

John Deere Public Affairs Worlwide

4

“Run Fast ... Run Smart ... Run Lean“

Growing World Population

Source: FAO

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

Po

pu

lati

on

('0

00's

)

Developing Urban Developing Rural 

Industrialized Countries

Transition Countries

Population

Urban population growth fuels the demand for food in the future.

Page 5: Run Fast... Run Smart... Run Lean 1 AGRICULTURAL TRENDS AND TRADE POLICIES Introduction Global trends in agriculture Trade policies and economic development

John Deere Public Affairs Worlwide

5

“Run Fast ... Run Smart ... Run Lean“

Increased meat and dairy consumption

Total Meat Consumption

Developed

Developing

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1983 1993 2020Source: FAO

Income growth in developing nations is expected to shift diets from grains to meat and

dairy.

Page 6: Run Fast... Run Smart... Run Lean 1 AGRICULTURAL TRENDS AND TRADE POLICIES Introduction Global trends in agriculture Trade policies and economic development

John Deere Public Affairs Worlwide

6

“Run Fast ... Run Smart ... Run Lean“

Increased grain productionFeed Grain Consumption

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Poultry Pork BeefSource: Doane

Kilograms of grain to produce 1 kilogram of meat

Increase in feed grain consumed more than offsets the reduction in direct consumption from

shifting diets.

Page 7: Run Fast... Run Smart... Run Lean 1 AGRICULTURAL TRENDS AND TRADE POLICIES Introduction Global trends in agriculture Trade policies and economic development

John Deere Public Affairs Worlwide

7

“Run Fast ... Run Smart ... Run Lean“

Crops used for renewable energy

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80L

iter

s (B

illi

on

s)

Brazil Ethanol US Ethanol EU Ethanol Other Ethanol EU Biodiesel

Bio-Fuel

Rising fuel costs and governmental policies are driving increases in crops used for renewable

energy.

Page 8: Run Fast... Run Smart... Run Lean 1 AGRICULTURAL TRENDS AND TRADE POLICIES Introduction Global trends in agriculture Trade policies and economic development

John Deere Public Affairs Worlwide

8

“Run Fast ... Run Smart ... Run Lean“

Cropland Availability

Africa & Mid EastAfrica & Mid East

South America

South America

U.S. & CanadaU.S. &

CanadaRussia & CIS

Russia & CIS

EuropeEurope AustraliaAustralia MexicoMexicoChinaChinaIndiaIndia Rest of Asia

Rest of Asia

Land in use, 1997-99 (1.4B ha)

Available land with suitable moisture & soil chemistry (4.1B ha)

Source: FAO and IIASA

Brazil has the highest potential for near-term expansion. In Africa political instability and

high cost of replacing nutrients limit crop area expansion.

Asia faces significant land and water constraints.

Page 9: Run Fast... Run Smart... Run Lean 1 AGRICULTURAL TRENDS AND TRADE POLICIES Introduction Global trends in agriculture Trade policies and economic development

John Deere Public Affairs Worlwide

9

“Run Fast ... Run Smart ... Run Lean“

Exports

Trade - Key Commodities (metric tons)

20152004

Wheat, Corn, Soybeans, Beef, Pork, Poultry

EU25+

AR/BR

AU/NZ

US & Canada

Russia & CIS

90% of the world’s exports come from these five regions. The total amount of exports is

expected to increase by 35% by 2015.

Source: USDA

Page 10: Run Fast... Run Smart... Run Lean 1 AGRICULTURAL TRENDS AND TRADE POLICIES Introduction Global trends in agriculture Trade policies and economic development

John Deere Public Affairs Worlwide

10

“Run Fast ... Run Smart ... Run Lean“

Trade policies and AG economic development

World trade agenda in the AG sector

Feed the world:

• AG commodities should be accessible and price-affordable to consumers.

• Helping the poor to become wealthier.

• Integration of developing countries in the global economy.

Means for achieving that goal:

- More market orientation.- Less trade-distorting support measures.- More transparent public supports for taxpayers and consumers.

Page 11: Run Fast... Run Smart... Run Lean 1 AGRICULTURAL TRENDS AND TRADE POLICIES Introduction Global trends in agriculture Trade policies and economic development

John Deere Public Affairs Worlwide

11

“Run Fast ... Run Smart ... Run Lean“

Trade policies and AG economic development

- Lower costs of production in the developed and developing countries

Appropriate AG techniques, AG tools and equipment, private investments.

Access to the markets is one key issue to be tackled

- While we don’t oppose regional agreements we still need a multilateral agreement (Doha) for:

A) Locking the reforming of AG policies in the developed countries.

B) Reducing tarriffs in the advanced economies but also between developing countries.

Remark: Preferential access is certainly an issue for many of the poorest countries, but it’s not a sustainable system if it hampers their competitiveness.

Page 12: Run Fast... Run Smart... Run Lean 1 AGRICULTURAL TRENDS AND TRADE POLICIES Introduction Global trends in agriculture Trade policies and economic development

John Deere Public Affairs Worlwide

12

“Run Fast ... Run Smart ... Run Lean“

Tracks for reaching a multilateral agreement

We don’t have the solution but we have some suggestions:

- Better evaluation of a non-agreement.- New systemic approach.- Better sequencing between the EU and US.- The industry’s expectation is a balanced and ambitious DDA outcome, preferable to unilateral reforms

Page 13: Run Fast... Run Smart... Run Lean 1 AGRICULTURAL TRENDS AND TRADE POLICIES Introduction Global trends in agriculture Trade policies and economic development

John Deere Public Affairs Worlwide

13

“Run Fast ... Run Smart ... Run Lean“

Concerns for the future – WTO potential new roles

Non-tarriff barriers to be closely monitored:

•Pesticides •Seeds•GMOs (Panel against is a current example)•Health standards•VeterinaryOur proposal: call for more science-based approach in dispute resolution. Forsdtering International standards : plants (IPPC), animals (OIE), Processed Food (Codex Alimentarius). Need for cpaicity building in developing countries.

Page 14: Run Fast... Run Smart... Run Lean 1 AGRICULTURAL TRENDS AND TRADE POLICIES Introduction Global trends in agriculture Trade policies and economic development

John Deere Public Affairs Worlwide

14

“Run Fast ... Run Smart ... Run Lean“

Perspectives for the future

BIOFUELS & BIOMASS

•Demand and public policies could trigger the demand for AG commodities.

•More arable land (South America, Africa) will be put in use.

•New division of AG production.

•One question to be addressed: How to qualify public support for producing bioenergy? Green box? This kind of support should be allowed for

developing this sector but also disciplined.

•One related issue: indigenous plants. Example of myscantus.

Page 15: Run Fast... Run Smart... Run Lean 1 AGRICULTURAL TRENDS AND TRADE POLICIES Introduction Global trends in agriculture Trade policies and economic development

John Deere Public Affairs Worlwide

15

“Run Fast ... Run Smart ... Run Lean“

Conclusion

•AG development faces many challenges but there’s room for hope. Solutions will be found, through R&D, free trade, free flows of investments.

•Sanitary, phytosantiray regulations will be the next major barrier to expanded trade as economic barriers become reduced in relative importance.

•In the future WTO will require more scientists and technical experts (and not only lawyers and economists) for settling dispute cases.