running the television race: fall 2012 television programming carly damman media intern “running...
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Running the Television Race:Fall 2012 Television Programming
Carly DammanMedia Intern
“Running is the greatest metaphor for advertising, because you get out of it what
you put into it”
26.2 Miles: Running for the GOLD
Scoping out the Competition Success of Networks Y2Y
Disqualified Cut Shows
Qualifiers New Shows
Starting Line Fall 2012 Broadcast Line-up
5 Miles Predictions
10 Miles Cable Network Highlights
15 Miles Traditional TV Sources
20 Miles Rise of Online TV
25 Miles DVR Trends
Finish Line Ad Spending
Water Breaks Quiz Questions
Scoping Out the Competition: Success of Networks Year to Year
Success of Networks Year to Year:Who will finish on top?
#42010/2011: 7,917,0002011/2012: 7,689,000
% Change: -3%
Source: Marc Berman’s data, P2+
#52010/2011: 1,760,0002011/2012: 1,485,000
% Change: -16%
#12010/2011: 10, 456,000 2011/2012: 10, 348,000
% Change: -1%
#32010/2011: 6,785,0002011/2012: 7,814,000
% Change: +15%
#22010/2011: 8,708,0002011/2012: 7,908,000
% Change: -9%
Disqualified: Cut Shows
Cut Shows:Runners Who Didn’t Qualify
Charlie’s AngelsGCB
Man Up!Extreme Makeover: Home Edition
MissingPan Am
The RiverWork It.
Final Season:Cougar Town- TBS
Desperate Housewives
The Secret CircleRingerH8R
Final Season:One Tree Hill
A Gifted Man CSI: Miami
How To Be A Gentleman NYC 22
Rob!Are You There, Chelsea?
Awake Fear FactorFree Agents Harry’s Law
Prime Suspect The Playboy Club
The FirmBest Friends Forever
BentThe Marriage RefMinute to Win It
Who Do You Think You Are?Fear Factor
The Sing-OffFinal Season:
Chuck
Alcatraz Allen Gregory Breaking In The Finder
I Hate My Teenage DaughterTerra Nova
Final Season:House
Qualifiers: New Shows
New Shows:Newly Qualified Runners
NashvilleThe Neighbors
666 Park Avenue
Last Resort
ArrowBeauty and the BeastEmily Owens, M.D.
ElementaryVegas
PartnersMade In Jersey
GoOnThe New NormalAnimal PracticeGuys with Kids
RevolutionChicago Fire
Ben&KateThe Mindy
ProjectMob Doctor
*= Mid-Season
Mid-Season:Do No Harm*
Infamous*Hannibal*
1600 Penn*Save Me*
Next Caller*
Mid-Season:Friend Me*
The Job*The Golden Boy*
Mid-Season:How to Live with Parents for
the Rest of Your Life*Zero Hour*
The Family Tools*Red Widow*Mistresses*
Malibu Country*
Mid-Season:The Following*The Goodwin
Games*
Mid-Season:The Carrie Diaries*
Cult*
Starting Line: Fall 2012 Broadcast Line-up
Monday
Time 8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30
HIMYM Partners 2 Broke Girls*
Mike & Molly
Hawaii Five-O
The Voice Revolution
Bones The Mob Doctor
Dancing with the Stars Castle
90210* Gossip Girl*
*Red= New Show *=new time slot
Water Break:What All-Stars will be on DWTS this season?
Tuesday
Time 8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30
NCIS NCIS: Los Angeles Vegas
The Voice Go On The New
Normal
Parenthood
Raising Hope*
Ben and Kate
New Girl
The Mindy Project
Dancing with the Stars The Results
Show*
Happy Endings
*
Don’t Trust
the B-*
Private Practice
Hart of Dixie* Emily Owens, M.D.
*Red= New Show *=new time slot
Wednesday
Time 8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30
Survivor: Phillippines
Criminal Minds CSI
Animal Practice
Guys with Kids
Law & Order: SVU* Chicago Fire
The X Factor
The Middle
The Neighbors
Modern Family
Suburgatory
Nashville
Arrow Supernatural*
*Red= New Show *=new time slot
Thursday
Time 8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30
The Big Bang
Theory
Two and a Half Men*
Person of Interest
Elementary
30 Rock* Up All Night*
The Offic
e
Parks and Recreatio
n
Rock Center with Brian Williams*
The X Factor Results Glee*
Last Resort Grey’s Anatomy Scandal
The Vampire Diaries Beauty and the Beast
*Red= New Show *=new time slot
Friday
Time 8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30
CSI:NY* Made in Jersey
Blue Bloods
Whitney* Community*
Grimm Dateline NBC
Touch* Fringe
Shark Tank/Last
Man Standing*
Malibu Country
Primetime: What Would
You Do?
20/20
America’s Next Top Model*
Nikita*
*Red= New Show *=new time slot
Cast of Community after shift to Fridays!
Saturday
Time 8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30
Crimetime Saturday (encores) 48 Hours Mystery
Encore Programming
Fox Sports Saturday
Saturday Night College Football
*Red= New Show *=new time slot
Time 8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30
The Amazing Race The Good Wife The Mentalist*
Football Night in America
NBC Sunday Night Football
The Simpsons
Bob’s Burgers
Family Guy
American Dad
Once Upon a Time Revenge* 666 Park Avenue
Sunday
*Red= New Show *=new time slot
5 Miles: Predicting the Top Finishers
Predicting the Top Finishers:The Star Athletes
Ad Age’s PicksWinners:
Nashville (ABC) Partners (CBS) The Following (Fox)
Losers: Mob Doctor (Fox) The Family Tools (ABC) Save Me (NBC)
My PicksWinners:
Revolution (NBC) Vegas (CBS) 666 Park Avenue (ABC)
Losers: Made In Jersey (CBS) Animal Practice (NBC) Emily Owens, M.D. (The
CW)
Predicting the Top Finishers:TV Guide’s Watchlist
½ a million registered users
Captures the shows receiving the most buzz so far
10 Miles: Cable Network Highlights
Cable Network Highlights:Cable vs. Broadcast Viewing
Source: CAB analysis of Nielsen Npower C3 Ratings; 9/19/11-2/19/12 v. 9/20/10-2/20/11
Cable Network Highlights:Cable vs. Broadcast Reach
Is cable leveling off? While cable penetration (wired
and unwired) currently stands at approximately 90% of TV households, no individual cable network cumes to anything near that by the end of an average week.
Out of the top 20 cable networks, eight have experienced declines season-to-date with double-digit drops at ESPN, TNT, MTV and Nickelodeon.
However, smaller networks are reporting gains, showing an increase in original programming and cable network fragmentation
Source: TVB TV Basics
Cable Network Highlights:Wired Cable HH’s vs. Total TV HH’s
July 2000 July 2011
July 2012
% HH’s Wired Cable
70.3% 60.5% 59.7%
% Total TV HH’s 98.2% 98.9% 97.1%
Source: TVB TV Basics
Cable Network Highlights:Where Do I Start?!
Cable Network Highlights:Top 5 Cable Networks
#1 cable network for an unprecedented 6
straight years
Top cable network for men in primetime
#1 network among males 25-54
#5 in primetime deliveries of A18-34
#2 network in primetime deliveries of A18-49 and #3 in
A18-34
Water Break:How many years of TV will the average American watch in his/her Lifetime?
A. 7 yearsB. 9 yearsC. 14 yearsD. 18 years
15 Miles:Traditional TV Sources
Traditional TV Sources:Americans still spend most of their time watching traditional TV
Source: Nielsen Cross-Platform Report Q4 2011
Traditional TV Sources:Most Americans use wired cable but not seeing growth
Source: Nielsen Cross-Platform Report Q4 2011, TVB.org
2012Total HH’s with TV: 97.1%
Total HH’s with Cable: 59.7%
Total HH’s with Satellite: 31.2%
Total HH’s with OTA (Telco): 9.7%
20 Miles:Rise of Online TV
Rise of Online TV:Decline of Traditional TV, growth of non-traditional
Source: Nielsen Cross-Platform Report Q4 2011
Rise of Online TV:HH’s viewing TV online continue to increase
Water Break:Top Online Video Destination?
Source: Nielsen State of the Media Report
Rise of Online TV:What sites are being used most often?
Source: Techcrunch.com Q1 2012
25 Miles:DVR Trends
DVR Trends:The Influence of DVR
Source: CAB Timeshifting in 2012 Report
DVR Trends: Top 10 DVRed Broadcast Shows
Based on 2011-2012 Season
Source: Nielsen’s Npower; Prime=M-Sa 8-11p & Su 7pm. Base= DVR HHs;2/1-2/26/12; Broadcast 6; A18-49 total U.S. Live+7rank (greater or equal to 2 t/c).
Finish Line:Ad Spending
Ad Spending:Advertising & Audiences-Primetime by Genre
Source: Nielsen; Nielsen State of the Media
Ad Spending:Advertisers still spend more on Network vs. Cable
Source: Kantar Media
($000) Spot TV Network TV
Syndication
Cable TV TV Grand Total
Jan-Mar ’11
3,611,789 6,395,979 1,111,649 5,370,933 16,490,352
Jan-Mar ’12
3,705,508 6,988,367 1,286,401 5,770,588 17,750,866
Change (%)
2.6 9.3 15.7 7.4 7.6
Ad Spending:Ad Dollars go to TV
Source: Nielsen, Ad*Views (2011)
You Made it to the Finish!
Now go sit on the couch and watch some TV!
Appendix:Ownership Guide
29 television stationsCBS Television Studios
CBS Entertainment CBS News CBS Sports
CBS Television Stations CBS Television Studios
CBS Studios International CBS Television Distribution
The CWShowtime
CBS College Sports Network CBS Television NetworkSmithsonian Networks
Comcast SportsNet Comcast Network
The Weather Channel (25% stake) A&E (16% stake)
The History Channel (16% stake) The Biography Channel (16% stake)
Lifetime (16% stake) The Crime and Investigation Channel (16%
stake) Pittsburgh Cable News Channel (30%
stake) FEARnet (31% stake)
PBS KIDS Sprout (40% stake) TV One (34% stake)
Houston Regional Sports Network (23% stake)
SportsNet New York (8% stake)
NBCUniversal24 television stations
NBC television network Telemundo
USA Network SyFy
CNBC MSNBC Bravo
Oxygen Chiller
CNBC World E!
The Golf Channel Sleuthmun2
Universal HDVERSUS StyleG4
Appendix:Ownership Guide
Fox Deportes Big Ten Network
National Geographic U.S. Nat Geo Adventure
Nat Geo Music Nat Geo Wild
Fox International Channels Utilisima
Fox Crime NEXT
FOX History & Entertainment The Voyage Channel
STAR World STAR Movies
NGC Network International NGC Network Latin America
27 television stationsFOX Broadcasting Company (FOX
Network, MyNetworkTV)FOX News
FOX Business FOX News Radio Network FOX News Talk Channel
FSN (12 regional sports networks) FX
SPEED FUEL TV
Fox College Sports Fox Movie Channel Fox Soccer Channel
Fox Soccer Plus Fox Pan American Sports
Appendix:Ownership Guide
LAPTV Movie City City Mix
City Family City Stars City Vibe
The Film Zone Cinecanal
Elite Sports Limited BabyTV
STAR India STAR Taiwan
ESPN STAR Sports Shine Limited
Space Infinito
I-SatFashion TV
HTV Much Music
Pogo Mondo TV
Tabi CNN Español
One television stationThe Warner Brothers Television
Group Warner Horizon Television CW Network (50% stake)
TBS TNT
Cartoon NetworktruTV
Turner Classic Movies Boomerang
CNN HLN
CNN International HBO
Cinemax
Appendix:Ownership Guide
23 television stationsThe Food Network (30% stake)
WGN America CLTV Chicagoland
Tribune Entertainment
Appendix:Ownership Guide
Viacom Media Networks160 cable channels
MTVVH1 CMT Logo
Nickelodeon Comedy Central
TV Land Spike TV
Tr3sBET
CENTRIC
Appendix:Ownership Guide
8 television stations The ABC television network
ESPNDisney Channels Worldwide
ABC Family SOAPnet Networks A&E (42% stake)
Lifetime Television (42% stake) The History Channel (42%
stake) Lifetime Movie Network (42%
stake) The Biography Channel (42%
stake) History International (42% stake) Lifetime Real Women
(42% stake) Live Well Network (42% stake)
Appendix:Ownership Guide