Russia: Russia: Post-2012 Climate Post-2012 Climate

Policy IssuesPolicy Issues

Dr. George SafonovDr. George SafonovDirector, Center for Environmental Director, Center for Environmental

EconomicsEconomicsState University – Higher School of State University – Higher School of

Economics Economics under the Government of Russian under the Government of Russian

FederationFederation

Post-Kyoto concernsPost-Kyoto concerns Fast economic growth and slowly growing Fast economic growth and slowly growing

carbon emissions in Russiacarbon emissions in Russia Lack of experience in carbon emission Lack of experience in carbon emission

controlcontrol Low priority of climate in domestic policy Low priority of climate in domestic policy

making, but recognition that this is a making, but recognition that this is a significant issue of international policysignificant issue of international policy

Political need for maintaining work within Political need for maintaining work within UNUN

Unclear structure of the post-Kyoto Unclear structure of the post-Kyoto international deal by now (role of US, international deal by now (role of US, G77&China, etc.)G77&China, etc.)

GHG emission forecasts in GHG emission forecasts in RussiaRussia

0,0

500,0

1000,0

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2000,0

2500,0

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2006 2010 2020 2030

Basic Scen. Innovation Scen. Energy-based Scen.

1990 baseline level of GHG emissions

CO2 emission forecasts based on Russian Energy Strategy - 2020

CO2 emission forecasts based on recent macroeconomic forecasts by Ministry of Economic Development

Challenge: now there are NO scenarios with stable or declining GHG emissions in Russia at all

Likely position of Russia at Likely position of Russia at COP15 (2009)COP15 (2009)

-25-40% by 2020 is not acceptable for Russia-25-40% by 2020 is not acceptable for Russia -10-15% cap is negotiable, -10-15% cap is negotiable, this is reachable level, this is reachable level,

regarding Kyoto surplus and existing potential for emission regarding Kyoto surplus and existing potential for emission reductionreduction

No active involvement in negotiations of capsNo active involvement in negotiations of caps Waiting for the US and G77&China to take Waiting for the US and G77&China to take

commitmentscommitments Flexible mechanisms are welcome, otherwise Flexible mechanisms are welcome, otherwise

the Kyoto surplus is not capitalizedthe Kyoto surplus is not capitalized

Climate policy Climate policy instrumentsinstruments

JI is in place, GIS is considered, no ETS yetJI is in place, GIS is considered, no ETS yet Higher priority of policies and measures Higher priority of policies and measures

approach, approach, such as targeted programs and regulations are adopted, e.g. such as targeted programs and regulations are adopted, e.g. energy efficiency standards, forestry programs, corporate energy efficiency standards, forestry programs, corporate programs (Gazprom), etc.programs (Gazprom), etc.

Ministry of Economic Development Ministry of Economic Development welcomes business proposals about ETS, welcomes business proposals about ETS, but is not intended to limit GHG emissions itself at the but is not intended to limit GHG emissions itself at the moment moment

Big Russian business is considering ETS as Big Russian business is considering ETS as an interesting tool for capitalizing its an interesting tool for capitalizing its potential in emission reductionpotential in emission reduction

Strategic document – Strategic document – Concept for long-term socio-economic Concept for long-term socio-economic

developmentdevelopment

Adopted by government in Oct. 2008Adopted by government in Oct. 2008 General goals are: General goals are:

To reach the world leading country level of To reach the world leading country level of social and economic development with social and economic development with attractive way of living.attractive way of living.

To be among 5 leading countries by GDP in To be among 5 leading countries by GDP in the worldthe world

Environmental quality is one of the Environmental quality is one of the priorities for strategic policy makingpriorities for strategic policy making

Policy indicators, Policy indicators, related to carbon emission related to carbon emission

regulationregulation1.1. Reduction of impacts on the environmentReduction of impacts on the environment

BAT, modern recycling, use of alternative energy, stimulation of BAT, modern recycling, use of alternative energy, stimulation of GHG emission reduction, 3-7 times lower pollution-intensity by GHG emission reduction, 3-7 times lower pollution-intensity by industriesindustries

2.2. Environmental safety and comfort Environmental safety and comfort 5-fold less cities with high/very high pollution, 4-fold less 5-fold less cities with high/very high pollution, 4-fold less

population living in poor environment, etc.population living in poor environment, etc.

3.3. Environmental business Environmental business Emission markets, certificates for renewable energy, energy Emission markets, certificates for renewable energy, energy

efficiency, efficiency, 5-fold increase of env.goods and services sector5-fold increase of env.goods and services sector

4.4. Protection of natural environment (adaptation?)Protection of natural environment (adaptation?) Other indicators: Other indicators:

2-2,5 times less env. impacts by 20202-2,5 times less env. impacts by 2020 env. costs may rise up to 1-1,5% of GDP by 2020env. costs may rise up to 1-1,5% of GDP by 2020 -30-50% of GHG emissions by 2050-30-50% of GHG emissions by 2050 40-45% less energy intensity of GDP by 202040-45% less energy intensity of GDP by 2020

Thanks for your Thanks for your attention!attention!

Dr. George V. SafonovDr. George V. SafonovDirector, Center for Environmental Economics, Director, Center for Environmental Economics, State University – Higher School of EconomicsState University – Higher School of Economics

gsafonov@mail.ruTel. +7 903 7791161Tel. +7 903 7791161