russia remains in 6th in gdp out to 2050 · 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014...
TRANSCRIPT
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Russia remains in 6th in GDP out to 2050 GDP in PPP terms, 2011 US$ trillions
2050 GDP Ranking GDP at PPP
China 53.856
US 37.998
India 34.704
Brazil 8.825
Japan 8.065
Russia 8.013
Mexico 7.409
Indonesia 6.346
Germany 5.822
France 5.714
Source: Price Waterhouse Coopers.
2011 GDP Ranking GDP at PPP
US 15.094
China 11.347
India 4.531
Japan 4.381
Germany 3.221
Russia 3.031
Brazil 2.305
France 2.303
UK 2.287
Italy 1.979
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Russia improving business climate from 112 finish in 2012 Rank in Ease of Doing Business Index (total 185 countries), 2013
Economy Ease of Doing
Business
Starting a Business
Registering Property
Getting Credit
Protecting Investors
Paying Taxes
Enforcing Contracts
Resolving Insolvency
Singapore 1 3 28 3 2 5 12 4
United States 4 20 25 3 6 64 11 17
China 96 158 48 73 98 120 19 78
Russia 92 88 17 109 115 56 10 55
Brazil 116 123 107 109 80 159 121 135
India 134 179 92 28 34 158 186 121
Source: The World Bank.
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Unemployment rate lower in Russia than U.S.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
Percent
China
Russia United States
Source: International Monetary Fund.
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Russia is recovering from the hard hit in the recent financial crisis GDP Growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Percent
Source: International Monetary Fund.
Brazil
Russia
China
India
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Russia surpassed US in 2012 in military expenditures
0
1
2
3
4
5
Indonesia Brazil China India United States Russia
Percent of GDP
Source: The World Bank.
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Exports of oil from Russia have increased since 2009 Value of oil exports
10
15
20
25
30
1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
US$ billions
Sources: International Monetary Fund, Central Bank.
Forecast
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Russia maintains low government gross debt
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Percent of GDP
Source: The World Bank.
Russia
Developing Asia
Advanced economies
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Foreign direct investment surged into Russia since 2004
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
US$ billion
Source: UNCTAD.
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Russia’s service sector grows as agriculture shrinks
Agriculture 6.6
Industry 35.7
Services 57.7
2001 Agriculture
3.9
Industry 36.0
Services 60.1
2012
Source: The World Bank.
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Russia GDP annual growth rate Percent change in gross domestic product
4
3.4
5 4.8 4.8
4.3
3
2.1
0.8 1
1.3
2
0.8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2011 2012 2013 2014
Percent
Source: Federal State Statistics Service.
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19 35 57 82
167
324
514
674 678
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD
Open store count
Subway restaurant growth
Source: Subway.
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Subway stores city growth
10 13 20 35 57 82
167
324
514
674 678
3 4 7 16 25 31 37 51 76
118 119 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014YTD
Stores Open - End of Year Cities Count
Source: Subway.
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Subway, Russia shareholder’s return Annual % cash return on investment
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
2011 2012 2013
Year of Return
Source: Subway.
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Credit Suisse – leading franchise in Russia
Source: .
Moscow
Kazakhstan
Russia
Norway
Sweden
Finland
Latvia
Lithuania
Belarus
Ukraine
Georgia
Azerbaijan
Industry wide recognition
• Credit Suisse continues to be recognised as the market leader in
arranging debt and equity financing on international capital markets
for major Russian corporations
(1) 2005–2014 YTD.
(2) 2005–2014 YTD.
Long standing presence in Russia
Full capabilities on the ground in Moscow • Longstanding, continuous presence in Russia since 1991
• Demonstrated consistent market leadership across all products:
– US$30.9bn of equity capital raised through 28 offerings(1)
– US$18.3bn of public debt raised through 50 offerings(2); consistent
leader in the Eurobond underwriting for Russian issuers
– Adviser on over 35 completed Russian M&A transactions, with
vast experience across all sectors
• Over 200 employees – a full range of investment banking, asset
management and private banking
• Over 20 Russia-focused bankers across Moscow and London
• Sector focused responsibilities
• On-the-ground sector expertise and execution capability
• Leading Russian Equities platform:
– 5 Moscow-based sales and trading specialists and a further 5 in
London
– 8 Moscow-based equity research analysts covering 50 stocks
Equity Capital Markets
November 2012
US$ 1,830,000,000
Joint Bookrunner
IPO
Debt Capital Markets
April 2012
US$ 400,000,000
Joint Bookrunner
8.500% Reg S / 144a
offering due April 2017
CHF525,000,000
2.177% bonds due February 2018
CHF150,000,000
2.730% bonds due February 2021
Joint Bookrunner
January 2013
US$ 1,000,000,000
3.914% semi-annual Reg S /
144 A offering due January
2018 Joint Bookrunner January 2013
US$500m
IPO
Joint Global Coordinator
and Bookrunner February 2013
US$1,330,000,000 Acquisition of a 50% stake
in Euroset
December 2012
Financial Advisor to MegaFon
Mergers & Acquisitions
Undisclosed
Creation of gas production
Joint Venture
August 2012
Lead Financial Advisor to
Rosneft
Advising Sheremetyevo on
the merger with Terminal D
April 2012
Joint Financial Advisor
US$1,200,000,000 US$3,650,000,000
Acquisition of 10.7% stake in MegaFon from Altimo and 26.1% stake in Telecominvest from TeliaSonera by AF Telecom
April 2012 Advisor to AF Telecom
AF Telecom
Holding
to
Financial Advisor
Sale of 50.0% equity stake
in
October 2012
US$26.8bn
Existing locations in Russia
Estonia
Best Investment Bank
Deal of the year: Russia’s
US$5.5bn eurobond
Best IPO in EMEA: Rusal
Best Global Bank
Best Emerging Markets
Investment Bank
Best Investment Bank in
Russia
Best IPO in CEE: Nomos Bank
Best structured finance deal in CEE:
Metalloinvest
Best CHF bond: VTB Bank’s CHF300mn
issuance
Best Global Emerging
Markets M&A House
Best Global Emerging
Markets M&A House 2012 2011 2011 2010 2010
Acquisition of a 49% stake in Iera
Sole Financial Advisor to Rosneft
July 2013
US$2,900,000,000
Undisclosed
Creation of mobile joint venture
December 2013
Financial Advisor to
Rostelecom
IPO
Active bookrunner
May 2013
US$229,000,000
IPO
Active bookrunner
June 2013
US$80,000,000
Follow-on
Sole bookrunner
September 2013
US$288,000,000
Follow-on
Lead Left bookrunner
November 2013
US$95,000,000
February 2014
US$ 974,000,000
Joint Global Coordinator
and Joint Bookrunner
IPO
April 2013
US$1,000,000,000
Joint Global Coordinator
7-year Reg S / 144a offering
January 2014
CHF 325,000,000
Joint Bookrunner
5.125% 10.25NC5.25 Tier 2 Notes due 2024
February 2014
US$ 1,000,000,000
Joint Bookrunner
5.500% Reg S / 144A Tier 2 Eurobond due 2024
December 2013
US$ 1,000,000,000
Joint Solicitation Agent
PerpNC 5.5 7.875% Upper Tier 2 Loan Participation Notes
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Russia at a glance
Note: (1) As per World Bank definition – those with per capita consumption levels of $10/day or higher Source: World Bank, IMF, Rosstat , Federal Customs Service.
Population 143.4 mln (#9 globally)
Total area 17.1 mln km2 (#1 globally)
GDP (2013) $2,098 mln (#8 globally)
Debt/GDP (2013) 11.2%
Export structure (2013)
Metals 7.8%
Energy products
70.6%
Chemicals 5.8%
Other 15.8%
Inflation (2013) 6.5%
Life expectancy 70 years
Middle class1 60%
GDP per capita $14,604
GDP breakdown (2013)
$526.4bn in 2013 Other 28.4%
Manufacturing 14.8%
Wholesale/retail trade 18.2%
Construction and real estate 19.3%
Mineral resources and mining
10.8% (incl. oil&gas 9.3%)
Transportation and telecommunications
8.5%
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Russia macro environment
Source: Euromonitor, Global Insight.
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000
18,000
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014E
(US$)
23.0 20.2
4.4 3.9 3.3 3.2 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
0
10
20
30
(US$ in trillions)
GDP per capita dynamics Expected economy size in 2020
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Russia macro environment (cont’d)
Source: Euromonitor, Global Insight.
1.3 3.3 4.1 4.2 4.2
5.6 6.6 6.6 7.2 7.4 8.1 8.7 8.8
10.5 10.8
24.2 26.5
39.9
IndiaUkraine
ChinaSouth Africa
BelarusRomania
GlobalKazakhstan
BrazilHungary
PolandRussia
CroatiaCzech Republic
SlovakiaEurozone
UKUSA35.8
25.4
10.0 9.8 9.4 8.1 7.4 7.2 6.8 6.1 5.8 4.1 3.8 3.0 2.5
0.9
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
USA U
K
Slo
vaki
a
Cze
ch R
ep
ub
lic
Cro
atia
Po
lan
d
Ru
ssia
Hu
nga
ry
Bra
zil
Kaz
akh
stan
Ro
man
ia
Sou
th A
fric
a
Be
laru
s
Ukr
ain
e
Ch
ina
Ind
ia
(US$ in thousands) (US$ in thousands) Consumer spend per capita in 2013 Disposable income per capita in 2013
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1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
0
700
1,400
2,100
2,800
RTS Index Dynamics
Source: FactSet.
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Russia at a glance
Russia
Population
143 million
9th largest
Consumer market in
the world
Consumer spending by
2025
US$3 trillion
2020
Europe’s largest and
world’s fourth-biggest
consumer market
Western companies sell
6-12 times
more per capita on average in
Russia than in China and India
73.8 million users
Largest online population in
Europe
Biggest mobile phone market in
Europe
230 million phones
Doing business relatively easier
92nd in World Bank’s Doing Business Rankings
2014 and is actually now the top-ranked
BRIC
Russia joins WTO
Intends Open Government
Partnership membership
Largest labor force
(75 million workers)
World’s 7th
Nominal GDP in 2013
US$2.1trillion
1.2%
Real GDP growth
in 2013
Government debt fallen
from 70% of GDP to
9% of GDP over
the last 10 years
Unemployment
rate of 5.4%
Record low for the
last two decades
Source: Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development; Russia's statistical agency; World Bank’s Doing Business Rankings 2014; Russia attractiveness survey 2013, Ernst & Young.
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Russia’s competitive advantages and areas for improvement
Source: Russia attractiveness survey (total respondents: 206), 2013, Ernst & Young.
-
Russia's strengths and challenges
33%
Political, legislative
and administrative
environment
38%
Government initiatives
on sustainable
development
56%
Human resources,
labor skills
51%
Research, innovation
45%
Entrepreneurial
environment
70%
Domestic market
64%
Telecom infrastructure
61%
Natural resources
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Business environment in Russia
Summary of new government initiatives to improve business environment
• Penalties for corruption raised significantly
• IP protection enhanced
• Entry into WTO despite extremely drawn-out acceptance process
• More spending on social infrastructure (health, education)
• Clear definition of the problems to be solved in the near future:
o Diversification away from oil
o Independence of courts, guarantee of property rights
o Attracting global business, investment and technologies
• Strategy of Russia innovative development
• Easing financial regulation
• Investment climate improvement
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
S&P Russian Federation BMI
GVA
Russian private equity market opportunities
Source: S&P Russian Federation BMI, Rosstat
VIYM INVESTMENT ACTIVITY
Hospitality real estate with mixed-use components
Growth Capital: consumer goods & services,
industrials & materials, B2B services, IT & internet,
healthcare services
Gross Value Added vs. Stock Index structure, 2013
Stock market provides LIMITED ACCESS to all the sectors of Russia’s economy
Private Equity opens ACCESS to diversified market opportunities
Source: EBRD
Source: EBRD
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0.86 1.15 1.15 1.30 1.35 0.72 0.87 3.19
5.59 5.88 7.07 5.88 7.21 7.31 8.53 8.74 12.82
20.21
69.74
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Global Cities
The best time to buy ● Selecting the right niches
Source: Rosstat; VIYM data
Year-on-Year growth rates of selected
consumer sectors vs. Russia’s GDP
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Equipment rental
Chocolate production
Paper tissue
Fast food
Healthcare
Russia's GDP (nominal)
Growth Capital Hospitality Real Estate Maturity levels of hospitality markets
Source: HVS
Russia /
CIS Cities
Asia-Pacific
Cities
hotel rooms per 1000 residents
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35 40
42 44
50
56
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F
Selected regional case studies • Growth capital
Source: Euromonitor
3
4
7
16
24
0 10 20 30
Russia
World
CEE
EU
USA
Tissue Consumption
per Capita in Russia (kg)
56 63 65
71
102
154
174
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F
370 400
440 484
532 586
644
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F2015F2016F
Tissue consumption in Russia (000 t) STG revenue dynamics (US$ million)
STG at a glance
• Top-3 producers of base paper
and tissue products in Russia
• Base paper: 15% market share
• Tissue products: 7% market share
• Own tissue base paper production
• Proprietary well-established
distribution system
Family Doctor at a glance
• Middle class medical company
in Russia
• 3 outpatient clinics across
Moscow
• Home care medical services in
Moscow and in the Moscow
region
• The client base >200,000
patients
8 10
14
19
26
36
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F
Source: Businesstat
Source: Euromonitor
Total volume of healthcare market in
Russia (US$ billion) Family Doctor revenue dynamics (US$ million)
Russia’s healthcare market
structure
8%
30%
70%
0% 50% 100%
Other
Private
State
Source: Businesstat
Source: STG data Source: Family Doctor data
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Selected regional case studies • Hospitality RE
Four Seasons Lion Palace St. Petersburg is the first in Russia and the
latest in a string of heritage hotels from Four Seasons Hotels & Resorts (including 2013 World’s Best
winners in Budapest, Istanbul, and Florence), and the brand’s most ambitious project
Top Europe Hotel Opening in 2013
Select International Awards:
St. Petersburg is one of
the fastest growing hotel
markets in Europe by RevPAR
of 5-8%* in 2013 (in EUR, JLL)
* depending on a hotel segment
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Challenges vs
Opportunities
Developing retail business in Russia
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28
About company
Founded in 2008
1st store opened in April, 2009
Turnover
2013 – 237mln USD
2014 – 350 mln USD
9 stores (+4 to be opened)
Internet store
1 200 000 square feet
30 000 SKU
More than 1600 employees
Moscow
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Unique format of Hoff stores
One-stop-shopping format. Everything for home furnishing under one roof
Home furnishing ideas and solutions. Unique merchandizing concept
Wide range in low middle – upper middle segment of the market
Variety of modern styles. Hoff is a specialist in contemporary living.
Value-for-money. Wide range of high quality products for affordable prices.
Leading international brands
High level service
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Major retail trends in Russia
Competition
Consumer preferences
Revenues of Top-30 retailers in Russia were 14% of the total turnover in 2012, compared to 12% in 2011, while the share of grocery retailers has increased from 9% to 10% respectively
There is a shortage of quality retail and warehouse premises
Expansion of global e-commerce retail players onto the Russian market
Consumers are becoming more and more focused on retailers’ promises: 83% are frustrated by failure to deliver on a promise
E-commerce market continues to increase by 25-30% annually
Price and quality are still the most important factors for consumers, and the main drivers for growth in private label sales, up to 29% annually
Consumers are becoming more global and mobile: the volume of cross-border shopping is growing by about 50% per year, and has now surpassed 15 billion USD
Source: Infoline, research by Accenture, news resources
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Russia now has a leading position in the European retail
market
55% 55% 53% 51% 52% 52% 53% 54% 55% 56% 45% 45% 47% 49%
48% 48%
47% 46% 45% 44%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F
Food Non-food
8.7
22.6
13.9 10.9
14.6
21.4 19.1
16.5
Russian retail turnover, 2006-2015, trillion RUR
25.2 23.8
Thanks to enormous growth, as well as the sheer size of the economy, Russia in 2012 became the leader in retail turnover in Europe
Ministry for Economic Development (MED) forecasts ~5-6% CAGR of retail turnover in comparable prices
Russia 509.5
France 418.2
Germany 410.1
UK 377.6
Italy 253.1
TOP-5 countries by retail turnover in 2012, bln EURO
2011 2012 2013 2014
MED forecast 5% (1 year prior period in
comparable prices) 6.1% 5.2% 5.2%
Fact 16% 12% ?
+26%
+14%
+6%
Source: GFK, Federal Statistics Agency, MED forecast 2013-2015
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Retail sales productivity in Russia is much lower than in
Europe
TOP-5 European countries and Russia by retail sales productivity (turnover per sq.m. of sales area (€/sq.m.) in
2012
Per capita sales area (sq.m. pe 1,000 people) and sales productivity (€/sq.m.) in Russia is 1.5 times lower compared to leading European countries
Earnings in Russia are also two times lower
TOP-100 Russian retailers increased their productivity, €/sq.m.
TOP-100 Russian retailer productivity, €/sq.m.
sq.m. per
1,000 people 1260
€/sq.m. ,7832
population 4.9 Mincome
$/year 31,459
Norway
sq.m. per
1,000 people 1250
€/sq.m. 6,246
population 9.5 Mincome
$/year 25739
Finland
sq.m. per
1,000 people 1,43
€/sq.m. 7,406
population 0.5 M
income
$/year 40
Luxemburg sq.m. per
1,000 people 1,21
€/sq.m. 6,411
population 9.5 M
income
$/year 26,242
Sweden
sq.m. per
1,000 people 1,51
€/sq.m. 6,936
population 7.9 M
income
$/year 30,06
Switzerland
sq.m. per
1,000 people 660
€/sq.m. 4,771
population 142.8 M
income
$/year 9,899
Russia
4,504 4,807 5,207 5,319
2009 2010 2011 2012Sales productivity
9% 9%
6% 7%
Inflation
6%
Source: GFK GeoMarketing, OECD Better Life Index
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Modern Russian Consumer – who is it?
Sources: Romir, FOM, Federal Statistics Agency, National Bureau of Credit Histories, GFK.
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New challenges and “old” actions
Decline of customer demand
Currency risk
Different purchasing power in Moscow and regions
Strengthening completion (price wars)
Increase of interest rate
Lack of professional trade space
Aggressive promo
Product matrix adjustment downwards
Fix all expenses in rubles
Decrease import range in favor
of local assortment
Differentiated product matrix
Exclusive range
Direct purchasing
Improve stock turnover and stock/AP
ratio with suppliers
Own big box construction
E-Commerce development
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Best time to optimize expenses and increase efficiency Best time for expansion
Best time to increase brand awareness
Best time to get new customers Long term benefits vs. short term negatives
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Opportunities
Every crises has a winner
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Thank you! Contacts:
Michael Kuchment
Mob. +7 985 764 49 53
http://ru.linkedin.com/in/mkuchmentwww.facebook.com/mkuchment
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About me
Source: .