russian foreign policy strategy in the eurasian rimland. · 2013. 5. 5. · reintegration ca and...
TRANSCRIPT
Salzburg, Reform Group Conference 27.08.2012
Jacopo Pepe, PhD Candidate, Berlin Centre for Caspian
Region Studies
The New Geopolitics of
Eurasian Railways and
Russian Foreign Policy
toward Central Asia
Outline
Historical Background
Relevance
Key Questions
Key Facts on Transport/Logistics in
Eurasia/CA
RZD Strategy and Russia Transport
(Foreign) Strategy
Historical Background
What is new for Russia in the
geopolitical and geoeconomic power
constellation of XXI Century Eurasia?
A bit of eurasian history….
Russia as late comer in Eurasia
power play:
since 1555-57 expansion toward north-eastern Eurasia
Only since the XVIII century projects power to the South
as late as in the XIX Century conquest Central Asia (step by step)
As it happens:
a) major eurasian powers in relative decline (Quing-China, Savafid Iran, Moghul India, Ottoman Empire) confrontation with external Power GB
b) Contintental Trade was broken up and disappeared
Russia: long time no part of eurasian history
Russian Expansion 1
Source: The Dalton School, http://blogs.dalton.org/rome/map-resources/
Russian Expansion 2
Source: The Dalton School, http://blogs.dalton.org/rome/map-resources/
After End of SU Russia confronted with two processes, taking place at the same time:
a) Slowly trade reintegration of the CA-Region in the eurasian southern, south-western and south-eastern region
b) confronting simultaneously: rise up of assertive new-old powers (China, India, Iran, Turkey plus US/EU)
Relevance
No analysis of potential gains and geoeconomic/geopolitical implication of regional and transcontinental conventional transport infrastructure ongoing projects for reintegration CA and Russia in Eurasia (beyond energy/pipeline politics)
Necessity of modifying classical analysis of Eurasian Geopolitics, of the relations RU with CA, embeeding empirical evidence and historical analysis
Aim of the Project:
a) Theory Framework Modification/Renaming Classical Geopolitcs Mackinder/Spykman
b) Analysing strategies and interests in russian FP toward CA with a new focus on:
- Transport Strategy and Development (non-energetic infrastructure)
- Role of transport infrastructure for military strategy (planned not started yet)
Key Questions (draft, modification possible)
Which geoeconomic and geopolitical factors are affecting the
eurasian transport revolution? Are there conflicting or converging interests between Russia and
main central Asian states in developing ITC on rail?
Is (rail) transport becoming a factor in shaping Russian foreign strategy toward Central Asia? Is a “transport diplomacy“ (parallel to energy diplomacy) taking shape in russian foreign policy?
If yes, has Russia been using RZD/Rail Infrastructure/Logistics as a power tool toward central Asia?
If not, why?
Key Facts on Transport&Logistics in
Eurasia/Central Asia
Chinese rapid industrialisation of the north-western regions. Boom in expansion of inland rail network
Steady, rising rentability of overland transportation to Middle East/Europe
Overloaded Chinese Ports Capacity
Steady Rise of CA- China Trade Turnover 2007:15 times higher than 1990s)
Steady Rise Europe - Asia Trade Turnover (UN-ESCAP: 2010 17,7 Mio. TEU; 2015 26 Mio. TEU)
Slowly CA reintegration in inter-asian trade (Iran, Turkey, China, India (?) )
Transcontinental Transportation
Links: Re-linking CA Constraints …
Physical barriers (rail secotor):
- Different Rail Gouge Systems 1520 mm/ 1435 mm (break of gouge at Boarder Crossing Points)
- the obsolescence and shortages of rail cars, containers and locomotives
- poorly developed logistics
- high transportation costs
Non Physical Barriers:
-Slow custom procedures
-Boarder crossing delays
and Potentials of continental trade routes…
Time-Savings
Relief of congestioned southeastern asian ports
Minimalising security risks
Possible tarif-competitivness on the North-South Route
Rising turnover of eurasian overland trade According to ADB:
-2000: less than 0,3 %
-2008: 1% of total Europe-Asia trade flows overland
-2011: 1,5 -2%
-2013-15: to reach 5-8% of total Europe-Asia trade turnover
Transcontinental and regional overland transport Routes: no alternative but complementary to Maritime Routes
Potentials of continental trade routes for CA: as most relevant regional and continental transit countries being not yet full exploited
…and Russia : existing infrastructure: modernization needs, not yet full exploited
Schematic Map of Eurasian
Transcontinental Corridors Source: Emerson/Vinokurov,2009
Chinese Rail Network (Stand:2011)
Iranian Rail Network
Development (Stand:2011)
Turkish Railway Network
Development Stand:2011
GR-
AZ
Iran
Istanbul-
Ankara Ankara-
Sivas-
Kars
Marmara
Project
Central Asia: Dynamics of cargo fright volumes
and ITC-Development (Source:
Transshipment of Container at
Dostyk Boarder Crossing Point (TEU) Source: Kazatransservice
Time Saving on the Route China-
Kasachstan-Europe (Source:RZD)
Regional Rail Infrastructure.
Existing, planned and in building Source: Kazlogistics,2011
Kasachstan: the main player
Usan-Gyzlagaya-Gorgan Rail
Line (Source: ENR.com)
Ongoing Realisation of Logistic
Centres (Source: MinTransport Kazakhstan)
CHINA-KYRGYZSTAN-UZBEKISTAN
RAILWAY…. (Source:Kyrgyzstan Rail Company)
…….in the eurasian railsystem
(concurrent routes)
Multilateral Initiatives
ADB/CAREC- Corridors: Second Eurasian Land Bridge
EVRASEC-Corridors- Eurasian LandBridge
TRACECA-EU
UNECE/UNESCAP-EATL-Transeurasian/Trans-Asian Rail- and Roadway
IDB /ECO
Most relevant and implemented ADB/CAREC Corridors (since 1997)
CAREC Corridors (Source: CAREC Institute)
Road and Railway Progress of
CAREC-Corridors
Source: CAREC, 2010: Transport and Trade Facilitation Progress Report 2010
And Russia? RZD Strategy and
Russia Transport (Foreign) Strategy
Shifting part of Asian‐Pacific transit container freight flows from trans‐ocean routes to the Trans‐Siberian Main Line (competition with central and south eurasian rail lines)
Creating integrated rail infrastructure for the East –West and North –South International Transport Corridors
a)Reconstrucitng of Transkorean rail-line (ongoing)
b)Construction of Kosice-Vienna 15200 mm Gouge Rail
c)Backing Iran-Turkmenistan-Kasachstan Railway (only partly over RF Territory)
d)Backing Iran-Azerbajian-Russia Railway
Improving cooperation and interaction with partners to implement logistics and intermodal schemes for container transportation
Concentration in rising competitiveness and modernization of own infrastructure, expanding on the east-western axis (Eastern Siberia-China)
RZD: ITC-Ongoing Projects (Source: RZD)
RZD acting as an economic actor, but aware of geopolitical consequences of transport transformations in Eurasia
Until recently, the rail asset has not been considered an instrument of russian foreign strategy.
This has been changing. RZD, Transport Ministry, Presidential Administration and Foreign Ministry are acting more closely.
“Transport Diplomacy” is emrging
Coordination of transport strategies in the 1520 space (RAIL Commission of CSI-States
Since 2012: (Eurasian) Custom Union (Belarus,Kasachstan, Russia)
Central Role of Rail Transport, New unifed rail transport code approved
Completing Rail Reform ( privatisation plans to rise financial means starting from 2013)
Thank you for your attention !