russian market of tractors

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Demo-Version

Russia: Tractors

Market

Analysis and Forecast to 2017

August 2012

Marketing Research

http://www.russianmarketreport.com/

from 21 IndexBox Marketing © 2012 www.indexbox.ru

Market Research Russian Market of Leather Goods (Leather Bags, Briefcases, Wallets,

Gloves) Market. July 2012 (Demo-version)

Brief Overview

The report on the Russian tractors market contains:

Analysis and forecasts of market dynamics;

Analysis of domestic production, market share of the main market players;

Analysis of exports and imports;

Analysis of factors, influencing the market development;

Analysis of end-users;

Assessment and forecast of market development;

Financial and economic profiles of the leading companies in the industry.

Methodology:

Expert interviews with top managers of the largest players on the market;

Analysis of information, received from the main market participants;

An analysis of statistical information:

o Federal Service of State Statistics (Rosstat);

o The Federal Customs Service (FTS);

o The Ministry of Economic Development;

o The Federal Tax Service;

o Industry associations.

The report considers information on the following commodity groups:

Wheeled Tractors;

Tractors on crawlers.

The report will allow you to:

1. Identify key indicators of the market, build your own business forecasts, based on

market data;

2. Evaluate the growth potential and threats in the market.

Key figures presented in the report on the Russian tractors market:

Volumes of production, exports and imports;

Indicators of market development;

Consumption patterns.

The report contains the consensus market forecast based on the average value of the

forecasts of market participants. As market experts are considered: manufacturers,

importers, wholesale distributors, high-volume consumers, professional associations and

unions, and trade publications. The experts, participating in the survey, are provided with

special conditions on the purchase of the reports.





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verify all secondary information used in the report.

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the economy. Cross-analysis of related industries enables our clients to get a

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Research Design

The purpose of the study is to analyze the state of the Russian tractors market and build a

forecast of the industry in the medium term.

Geography of the research: Russia

Methodology

1. Analysis of secondary market data:

Secondary data refers to data from the Internet (industry portals, competitors’ sites,

shopping sites, articles and reviews, reference materials), specialized publications, state and

private media companies, marketing agencies, commercial databases, “IndexBox

Marketing” own research.

2. Analysis of Materials from Market Participants (price lists, brochures, etc.):

Data collection from market participants is needed to analyze the specifics of the market

and the parties involved in it, their pricing and assortment policy. Data on market

participants is gathered during the analysis of secondary information, and also by sending

requests for price lists and other presentation materials.

3. Expert Interviews with Market Participants

The analysis of secondary information is completed by expert interviews with

representatives of market participant companies – manufacturers and trading companies.

Our approach to the estimation

The consensus market forecast is the average value of the forecasts of market participants

(experts).

Experts

As market experts are considered: manufacturers, importers, wholesale distributors, high-

volume consumers, professional associations and unions, and trade publications. Expert

opinions are collected during telephone interviews conducted by IndexBox on a regular

basis (the standard is every six months, but can be more often, based on a special request

or under conditions of high volatility in the market). IndexBox has created an extensive

database of experts within key industries. The experts, participating in the survey, are

provided with special conditions on the purchase of the reports.





Accuracy of forecasts

The accuracy of forecasts is verified by experts in the given industry, based on the historical

period (3 years). In accordance with this accuracy, each expert weighs out the forecasts to

create the overall average forecast

Indicators

1. Consumption: Consumption is the main index estimated by our experts and features

the dynamics of consumption in real terms in the short to medium term. Experts give

an estimate of the potential volume of consumption in accordance with their

expectations and production plans (for manufacturers).

2. Internal production: It is based on the projected volume of consumption and production

capacity in any given industry, assessing, of course, and factoring in the dynamics of

domestic production.

3. Imports and Exports: Takes into account the retrospective dynamics of export-import

operations, strengths and weaknesses of the domestic production, changes in

legislation, the macroeconomic situation in the countries of the supplier (beneficiary) of

a product, an assessment of the dynamics of imports and exports.





Table of Contents 1. Executive Summary

2. Research Design

3. Tractors description

4. Characteristics of the Russian tractor market

4.1. Volume and dynamics of the Russian tractor market in 2005 - 2011. Forecast

for 2012 - 2017

4.2. Structure of the tractor market: production, exports, imports, consumption

5. Characteristics of the domestic production of tractors in 2005 - 2012

5.1. Volume and dynamics of wheeled tractors in 2005 - April 2012

5.2. Volume and dynamics of production of crawler tractors in 2005 - April 2012

5.3. The main manufacturers of wheeled tractors and their corresponding market

shares

5.3.1. LLC "Trading house" MTZ-ElAZ "

5.3.2. OJSC "PO" Elabuga Autoworks "

5.3.3. JSC "Mechanical plant Buzuluksky" Orenburg region.

5.3.4. JSC "SAREX"

5.3.5. CJSC "Petersburg tractor factory"

5.3.6. Company "Vladimir Motor and Tractor Plant"

5.3.7. LLC "John Deere Rus"

5.3.8. LLC "CNH-KAMAZ-Industry"

5.3.9. JSC "Agrotechmash"

5.3.10. JSC "Rostselmash"

5.4. The main manufacturers of crawler tractors and their corresponding market

shares

5.4.1. Company "Chelyabinsk Tractor Plant-Uraltrac"

5.4.2. "Promtractor"

5.4.3. JSC "TC Volgograd Tractor Plant"

5.4.4. JSC "Abakan experimental mechanical plant"

5.4.5. JSC "Krasnoyarsk plant forestry machinery"

5.4.6. LLC "OTZ"

5.4.7 JSC "Firm Lestehkom"

6. Characteristics of the prices of tractors

6.1. Dynamics of manufacturers’ prices of wheeled tractors

6.2. Dynamics of manufacturers’ prices of crawler tractors

7. Characteristics of the imports of tractors in the Russian market

7.1. Volume, dynamics and structure of the imports of tractors

7.2. Manufacturing countries, leading suppliers of tractors into Russia

7.3. Foreign manufacturers of tractors, imported into Russia

7.4. Russian companies, recipients of imported tractors

7.5. Recipient regions of the Russian imrpots of tractors

8. Characteristics of the Russian exports of tractors





8.1. Volume and dynamics of the exports of tractors

8.2. Countries of origin of the Russian exports of tractors

8.3. Recipient countries of the Russian exports of tractors

8.4. Manufacturing companies, supplying tractors for exports

8.5. Regions of Russia, supplying tractors for exports

9. Factors, influencing the development of the tractor market in Russia

9.1. Construction activity

9.2. Development of the agricultural sector

9.3. Government programs

10. Characteristics of the consumption of tractors in Russia

10.1. Dynamics and consumption of tractors in 2005 - 2011. Forecast up to 2017

10.2. Balance between production and consumption of tractors in 2005 - 2017

11. Forecast for the development of tractors market in Russia

11.1. Background of the Russian economy

11.2. Development scenarios for the tractor market in Russia

Appendix 1- Profiles of the main manufacturers of tractors in Russia





List of Tables

Table 1. Production of tractors on the wheel in 2005 - April 2012, in units

Table 2. Production of crawler tractors in 2005 - April 2012, in units

Table 3. Average manufacturers’ prices of wheeled tractors in Russia in January 2010 - April

2012

Table 4. Average manufacturers’ prices of caterpillar tractors in Russia in January 2010 -

April 2012

Table 5. Volume of the major manufacturing companies of wheeled tractors

Table 6. Volume of the major manufacturing companies of caterpillar tractors

Table 7. Structure of the imports of tractors in Russia by country of origin in 2011, in units

Table 8. Structure of the imports of tractors in Russia by country of origin in 2011, in

millions of USD

Table 9. Structure of the imports of tractors by manufacturing companies in 2011, in units

Table 10. Structure of the imports of tractors by manufacturing companies in 2011, in

millions of USD

Table 11. Structure of the imports of tractors in Russia by recipient companies in 2011, in

units

Table 12. Structure of the imports of tractors in Russia by recipient companies in 2011, in

millions of USD

Table 13. Structure of the imports of tractors in Russia by recipient regions in 2011, in units

Table 14. Structure of the imports of tractors in Russia by recipient regions in 2011, in USD

Table 15. Structure of the Russian exports of tractors by recipient countries in 2011, in units

Table 16. Structure of the Russian exports of tractors by recipient countries in 2011, in

thousands of USD

Table 17. Structure of the Russian exports of tractors by recipient countries in 2011, in units

Table 18. Structure of the Russian exports of tractors by recipient countries in 2011, in

thousands of USD

Table 19. Structure of the Russian exports of tractors by manufacturing companies in 2011,

in units

Table 20. Structure of the Russian exports of tractors by manufacturing companies in 2011,

in thousands of USD

Table 21. Structure of the Russian exports of tractors by region of origin in 2011, in units

Table 22. Structure of the Russian exports of tractors by region of origin in 2011, in

thousands of USD

Table 23. Profitability of production and the dynamics of net financial results of

organizations by kinds of economic activity in 2008 - January 2012





List of Figures

Fig. 1. Volume of supply of tractors in 2005 - 2011

Fig. 2. Forecast for the supply of tractors in Russia in 2012 - 2017

Fig. 3. Structure of the tractor market by descent in value terms in 2011

Fig. 4. Production of tractors on the wheel in 2011 - April 2012, in units

Fig. 5. Production of wheeled tractors in January 2010 - April 2012, in % over the same

period of the previous year

Fig. 6. Production of tractors on the wheel running in the 2005 - 2011, in units

Fig. 7. Production of crawler tractors in 2011 - April 2012, Ea.

Fig. 8. Production of crawler tractors in January 2010 - April 2012, in %, over the same

period of the previous year

Fig. 9. Production of tractors on caterpillar tracks in 2005 - 2011, in units

Fig. 10. Indices of average manufacturers’ prices of wheeled tractors in Russia in January -

December 2011

Fig. 11. Indices of average manufacturers’ prices of wheeled tractors in Russia in January -

April 2012

Fig. 12. Dynamics of average manufacturers’ prices of wheeled tractors in Russia in January

2011 - April 2012, deviation in % over the same period of the previous year

Fig. 13. Indices of average manufacturers’ prices of tractors on tracks in Russia in January -

December 2011

Fig. 14. Indices of average manufacturers’ prices of of tractors on tracks in Russia in

January - April 2012

Fig. 15. Dynamics of average manufacturers’ prices of caterpillar tractors in the Russian

Federation in January 2011 - April 2012, deviation in % over the same period of the

previous year

Fig. 16. Share of the market leaders in the wheeled tractors sector in 2011, total output in

value terms

Fig. 17. Share of the market leaders in the caterpillar tractors sector in 2011, total output in

value terms

Fig. 18. Dynamics of the imports of tractors in Russia in 2011, in units

Fig. 19. Dynamics of import of tractors in Russia in 2011, in millions of USD

Fig. 20. Structure of imports of tractors in Russia by countries of origin in 2011 in physical

terms

Fig. 21. Structure of imports of tractors in Russia by countries of origin in 2011 in value

terms

Fig. 22. Structure of imports of tractors in the Russian Federation by manufacturing

companies in 2011 in physical terms

Fig. 23. Structure of imports of tractors in the Russian Federation by manufacturing

companies in 2011 in value terms

Fig. 24. Structure of imports of tractors in Russia by recipient companies in 2011 in physical

terms





Fig. 25. Structure of imports of tractors in Russia by recipient companies in 2011 in value

terms

Fig. 26. Structure of imports of tractors in Russia by recipient regions in 2011 in physical

terms

Fig. 27. Structure of imports of tractors in Russia by recipient regions in 2011 in value

terms

Fig. 28. Dynamics of the Russian exports of tractors in 2011, in units

Fig. 29. Dynamics of Russian exports of tractors in 2011, in thousands of USD

Fig. 30. Structure of Russian exports tractors by countries of origin in 2011, in physical

terms

Fig. 31. Structure of Russian exports tractors by countries of origin in 2011, in value terms

Fig. 32. Structure of Russian exports of tractors by recipient countries in 2011, in physical

terms

Fig. 33. Structure of Russian exports of tractors by recipient countries in 2011, in value

terms

Fig. 34. Structure of Russian exports of tractors by manufacturing companies in 2011, in

physical terms

Fig. 35. Structure of Russian exports of tractors by manufacturing companies in 2011, in

value terms

Fig. 36. Structure of Russian exports of tractors by region of origin in 2011, in physical

terms

Fig. 37. Structure of Russian exports of tractors by region of origin in 2011, in value terms

Fig. 38. Quarterly changes in Russia's GDP in 2007 - 2011 in the prices of 2008, in trillions

of RUR, with the exception of the seasonal factor

Fig. 39. Dynamics of Russia's GDP in 2005 - 2011, in 2008 prices, in billions of RUR

Fig. 40. Total volume of construction of buildings introduced in Russia in 2005 – 2011, in

millions of cubic meters

Fig. 41. Structure imposed by buildings in 2005 - 2011, in square meters

Fig. 42. Total volume of construction of residential buildings, commissioned in Russia in

2005 – 2011, in millions of cubic meters

Fig. 43. Total construction volume of non-residential buildings, commissioned in Russia in

2005 – 2011, in millions of cubic meters

Fig. 44. Volume of commissioning of multi-family housing in 2005 - 2011, in thousands of

square meters

Fig. 45. Volume of commissioning of individual houses in 2005 - 2011, in thousands of

meters

Fig. 46. Number of months, needed to be worked in order for a Russian citizen to one

square meter of housing in the primary market

Fig. 47. Dynamics of production in certain sectors of the economy in 2008 - 2011, in 2008

prices

Fig. 48. Dynamics of investment in fixed capital at constant prices (volume index) in 2005-

2011. Percentage of the previous year

Fig. 49. Investments in fixed capital by sources of financing in the Russian Federation in

2007 - 2011





Fig. 50. Baseline scenario for development of the market of tractors in 2012 - 2017, in

thousands of units

Fig. 51. Conservative scenario for the development of the tractors market in 2012 - 2017, in

thousands of units

Fig. 52. Pessimistic scenario for the development of the tractors market in 2012 - 2017, in

thousands of units





Executive Summary

…

The upward trend in the production of tractors, that had been established in recent years

(growth rates in 2006 - …%, in 2007 - …%, in 2008 - …%) was replaced by a decline in

2009 - when production decreased with …%. In 2010, the decline leveled off, and in 2011

there was a strong recovery, equal to …% in real terms.

Based on the development of end-users of tractors and the Russian government's initiatives

in this area, a further growth in the industry can be anticipated.

…

Key figures and

conclusions

about the market





4. Characteristics of the Russian

tractor market

...

4.1. Volume and dynamics of the Russian tractor market in

2005 - 2012. Forecast for 2012 – 2017

...

As a result of the crisis of 2009, the market of tractors decreased by …%, compared to

2008, and further growth resumed in 2010 - …%. The consumption of tractors was …

thousand units. The volume of supply in the Russian tractor market in 2011 amounted to …

thousand units, which was …% higher than in 2010.

Characteristics of the market

- Volume and dynamics

- Structure of passenger traffic





Source: Data (“Rosstat”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 1. Volume of supply of tractors in 2005 - 2011 and forecast for 2012 – 2017

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011





5. Characteristics of the domestic

production of tractors in 2005 - 2010

…

5.1 Volume and dynamics of the production of tractors in 2005 –

2010

The upward trend in the production of tractors, that had been established in recent years

(growth rates in 2006 - …%, in 2007 - …%, in 2008 - …%) was replaced by a decline in

2009 - when production decreased with …%. In 2010, the decline leveled off, and in 2011

there was a strong recovery, equal to …% in real terms.

Source: Data (“Rosstat”, expert survey), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 5. Production of wheeled tractors in 2011 - April 2012, in units

114%

177%

90%

40%

70%

100%

130%

160%

190%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

янв фев мар апр май июн июл авг сен окт ноя дек





Table 2. Production of wheeled tractors in 2005 – April 2012, in units

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

In units In units In units In units In units In units In units

In %, to

the analog. period of 2010

In units

In %, to

the analog. period of 2010

January … … … … … … … …% … …%

February … … … … … … … …% … …%

January – February … … … … … … … …% … …%

March … … … … … … … …% … …%

January-March … … … … … … … …% … …%

April … … … … … … … …% … …%

January-April … … … … … … … …% … …%

May … … … … … … … …%

January-May … … … … … … … …%

June … … … … … … … …%

January-June … … … … … … … …%

July … … … … … … … …%

January-July … … … … … … … …%

August … … … … … … … …%

January-August … … … … … … … …%

September … … … … … … … …%

January-September … … … … … … … …%

October … … … … … … … …%

January-October … … … … … … … …%

November … … … … … … … …%

January-November … … … … … … … …%

December … … … … … … … …%





2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Total production of wheeled tractors, in units

… … … … … … …

In %, to the previous year …% …% …% …% …% …% …%






6. Characteristics of the prices of tractors 6.1 Dynamics of manufacturers’ prices of wheeled tractors

The manufacturers’ prices of wheeled tractors increased during 2011, relative to the same periods in 2010. The maximum price in 2011

was recorded in December - … RUR for 1 unit. The prices in 2012 exceeded the record prices in 2011 - in March 2012, the manufacturers’

price for 1 wheeled tractor was … RUR.

Table 3. Average manufacturers’ prices of wheeled tractors in Russia in January 2010 - April 2012

2010 2011 2012

RUR /unit

In %, to the

analogical

period of the

previous year

In %, to

the December of the previous

year

In %, to the

previous month

RUR /unit

In %, to the analog

ical period of the

previous

year

In %, to

the December of the previous

year

In %, to the

previous month

RUR /unit

In %, to the

analogical

period of the

previous year

In %, to the

December of the

previous

year

In %, to the

previous

month

January … …% …% …% … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

February … …% …% …% … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

March … …% …% …% … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

April … …% …% …% … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

May … …% …% …% … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

June … …% …% …% … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

July … …% …% …% … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

August … …% …% …% … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

September … …% …% …% … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

October … …% …% …% … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

November … …% …% …% … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

December … …% …% …% … …% …% …% … …% …% …%






7. Characteristics of imports of leather

goods to the Russian market 7.1 Volume, dynamics and structure of the imports of

tractors

In 2011, Russia imported … thousand. tractors. The volume fluctuated throughout the year

with peaks in June, October and December. The maximum level of imports was observed in

December (… thousand tractors).

Source: Data (“FTS”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 1 Dynamics of the imports of tractors in the Russian Federation in 2011, in

units

…

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

янв фев мар апр май июн июл авг сен окт ноя дек





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