russia's claims in the arctic
TRANSCRIPT
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Matt Mackowiak
POL 321, Russia and the New States
Dr. Bilocerkowycz
4 November, 2015
On Thinning Ice: Russia’s Claims in the Arctic
Summary Outline
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I. One of Russia’s latest territorial claims is the vast and unforgiving Arctic. Highly
valuable for more than just natural resources, the region will bring a whole new set of
benefits to Russia, and will also open up the door to future dispute and controversy.
II. What is Russia doing in the Arctic?
A. Increased activity in the Arctic Council
B. Territorial claims
1. Claimed Sea of Okhotsk
2. Submitted claim to UN for Arctic Ocean
C. Build-up of fleet/infrastructure in Arctic
D. Military involvement and expansion
1. Russia opening more military bases
2. Map of bases
III. Why is the Arctic so important to Russia?
A. Oil and natural gas resources
B. Shipping lanes will open when ice melts
C. Putin needs to change the subject from Ukraine
1. Putin losing in Ukraine
2. Sparking arctic crisis may distract enough from Ukraine
IV. How is the international community reacting to Russia’s actions in the Arctic?
A. Russia chastised, called aggressive
1. U.S. rushing arctic modernization
2. Nordic countries uniting to strengthen hand in Arctic
B. Caused escalation
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C. UN analyzing legality of Russian North Pole claim
1. Law of the Sea Convention
2. Russia conducting more research for claim
V. What are the implications Russia’s involvement in the Arctic have on the future?
A. Russian aggression and expansion could bring about new Cold War
B. If Russia gets its way in 2035
1. One possible scenario
2. Doubtful of being actual plan
VI. Russia’s claims in the Arctic have caused much disturbance in the international
community. For Russia, the Arctic is a promising region for natural resources,
exploration, and military development, but for the rest of the world, Russian
expansion in the Arctic represents a rising threat to international security.
Russian politics have taken the spotlight on almost every major news outlet in the world
for the last few years. Whether it be Ukraine, Syria or the Far East, Russia has been heavily
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involved in several international affairs. All over the world, people have been fascinated with
Russia’s aggressive territorial expansion. One of Russia’s latest territorial claims is the vast and
unforgiving Arctic. Highly valuable for more than just natural resources, the region will bring a
whole new set of benefits to Russia, and will also open up the door to future disputes and
controversy.
What is Russia doing in the Arctic?
As global warming causes the polar ice caps to melt, it becomes easier for states to stake
claims on the resource-rich floor of the Arctic Ocean. Russia has drastically increased its activity
in the Arctic Council within the last few years, emerging as a self-proclaimed leader. The Arctic
Council consists of 8 members that are united in an intergovernmental forum that discusses
various issues in the Arctic. Such issues include search and rescue, oil spill response and
fisheries.1 The Council and Russia’s leadership within it is just one example of increasing
Russian expansion in the Far North.
In addition to the growing influence of Russia within the Arctic Council, Russia has
made significant territorial claims in the Arctic. In Eastern Russia, the Sea of Okhotsk has long
been in a strategic location for the extraction of oil and natural gas. In 2014, Russia submitted a
proposal to the United Nations for ownership of the sea that was later accepted by the body. The
acceptance of the proposal ceded 52,000 square kilometers of the sea to Russia, allowing for
Russia to control the entire body of water from the Russian coast to the Kuril Island chain, which
Japan claims as well as Russia.2 This area is a rich belt of oil reserves which Russia will be able
to use to its advantage. Besides the legal annexation of the Sea of Okhotsk, Russia also recently
claimed territory in the Arctic on an even grander scale. In the Arctic Ocean, north of Russia, 1 Heather A. Conley and Caroline Rohloff, New Ice Curtain: Russia’s Strategic Reach to the Arctic (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2015), VII.2 John R. Haines, “Ali Baba’s Cave: The Sea of Okhotsk’s Contentious Triangle,” Foreign Policy Research Institute (2014): 590, accessed October 28, 2015, doi: 10.1016/j.orbis.2014.08.009.
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President Vladimir Putin submitted another proposal to the United Nations for the waters around
the North Pole, which, if accepted, would cede 1.2 million square miles of ocean to the Russian
Federation. Though the proposal will not be approved until at least 2016, a diver secured a
Russian flag to the ocean floor near the North Pole in 2007 as a symbolic gesture of Russia’s
claim of the seabed.3
Industrial development has been another key factor for the Russian government in the
Arctic. Russia has been busy in recent years with the construction of a fleet of “icebreakers” and
other infrastructural developments. For instance, the Russian government currently owns and
operates a fleet of over 40 icebreakers in the Arctic, some of which are nuclear-powered.4 Russia
is the only country in the world with such equipment; Even the United States has not moved
toward nuclear-powered ships in the Arctic. A nuclear icebreaker is a ship that “is powered by a
nuclear reactor and designed to clear paths through the ice for other ships to follow,”5 and they
are much more efficient than conventional ships, which gives Russia a distinct advantage as the
only state operating in the Arctic with such technology. This superiority is only forecasted to
increase, as Russia is currently in the process of constructing supposedly the largest icebreaker
ship in history, which will be completed by the year 2017.6
Perhaps the most important of all Russian developments in the Arctic is increased
militarization of the region. “Russia considers the Arctic a strategic priority and views its
maritime territorial claims here through a military lens, not simply an economic one”.7 The
Arctic Ocean is increasingly becoming a major asset for Russia in order to increase its military
3 “Russia Files Bid at UN for Vast Arctic Territory,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, last modified August 4, 2015, http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-un-arctic-territory/27169109.html.4 Milosz Reterski, “Breaking the Ice,” Foreign Affairs, last modified December 11, 2014, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2014-12-11/breaking-ice.5 Ibid.6 Ibid.7 Ibid.
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prowess. There has been much activity in this regard, as Russia is opening more military bases in
the Arctic, and re-opening some Cold-War Era bases. One such base that is being re-opened is
Alakurtti, which is only 50 kilometers from the Finnish border. With the re-opening of this base,
about 3,000 Russian troops will occupy the area,8 and Alakurtti is not the only area in the Arctic
in which the Russian military has an increasing presence.
9
The above map shows all military bases that are either occupied or will be occupied by
Russian forces. It is important to note that many of these bases, due to the geography of the
Arctic, are very close to those of neighboring states, causing a potential threat to the security of
these states. Other militaristic actions that Russia has carried out in the Arctic include training
operations, the construction of drone bases near the Bering Strait, and increased presence of both
8 Heather A. Conley and Caroline Rohloff, New Ice Curtain: Russia’s Strategic Reach to the Arctic (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2015), 11.9 Jeremy Bender and Mike Nudelman, “This map shows Russia’s dominant militarization of the Arctic,” Business Insider, last modified August 7, 2015, http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-russias-militarization-of-arctic-2015-8
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aircraft and the Navy throughout the north.10 Russia’s militarization of the Arctic has been one of
the most obvious developments in the region, but Russia’s claims in the Arctic go far beyond
simply showcasing its power and military might. There are several reasons Russia has upped its
game.
Why is the Arctic so important to Russia?
The development and militarization of the Arctic holds many strategic advantages for
Russia. As previously eluded to, the annexation of the Sea of Okhotsk and the Arctic Ocean will
yield massive payoff for Russia in the form of oil and natural gas reserves. Though the price of
oil is falling and Russia’s economy is getting weaker because of this, the sheer volume of
resources in the Arctic is sure to benefit the Russian economy in the long run. In northwestern
Russia, the Arctic is suspected to provide the Federation with three billion barrels of oil just in
proven deposits alone, not to mention the potential reserves, which are predicted to yield at least
67.7 billion barrels.11 As far as natural gas is concerned, proven reserves in the Arctic could
equal 7.7 trillion cubic meters (tcm), and unexplored reserves another 88.3tcm.12 These quantities
would allow Russia an enormous amount of revenue, despite having lost buyers in Europe due to
the Ukrainian Crisis. The melting of Arctic ice will also allow new shipping lanes to be opened.
Coupled with new-found oil and gas reserves, Russia could use these shipping lanes to export
fossil fuels in a much shorter time, showing why control of the region is economically important
for Russia.
Another reason that Russia is interested in the Arctic could also be because Putin greatly
needs to change the subject from what is currently happening in Ukraine, which has shifted
international public opinion against him. Putin is losing in Ukraine. The separatist forces he 10 Heather A. Conley and Caroline Rohloff, New Ice Curtain: Russia’s Strategic Reach to the Arctic (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2015), 19-20.11 Ibid, 24. 12 Ibid, 25.
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backs have been responsible for numerous human rights violations and this has alienated Russia
from the international community. Since public opinion of him is low outside of Russia, sparking
international crisis in the Arctic may distract the people from the issues in Eastern Europe.13 The
West will focus on Putin’s northern territory grabs, which are in closer proximity to players such
as the United States. This will also distract the domestic Russian public from the Ukraine
quagmire. The Arctic is therefore a failsafe for Putin to gain domestic popularity and
international great power legitimacy once again. Once he is able to do so, it will be easier for
Russia to gain more traction as a respected and legitimate world power. All of this activity,
however, does not come without a price.
How is the international community reacting to Russia’s actions in the Arctic?
With all of Russia’s developments and expansion into the vast and empty north, some
states have recognized the gravity of the situation and have spoken out in opposition. Russia has
been chastised by more than a few states, called aggressive and been blamed for military
escalation among the members of the Arctic Council. To begin, the United States is currently
ensuring greater access to Arctic resources for itself and rushing the construction of icebreakers
to rival those of Russia.14 For example, a heavy icebreaker currently under construction by the
United States is now scheduled to be finished by the year 2020 instead of 2022 as it was formerly
slated. This underlines the expedience of Arctic exploration and expansion, as Russia’s claims
have prompted other nations of the Arctic to work faster to improve their Arctic presence.
The U.S. is not the only state in which this is taking place, however. As
foreignpolicy.com states, “Nordic countries have moved to strengthen their own hand in the
13Brian Whitmore, “Why Putin is Losing,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, last modified August 10, 2015, http://www.rferl.org/content/why-putin-is-losing/27181633.html.14 Mike Eckel, “White House Proposes to Expand Access to Arctic,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, last modified September 2, 2015, http://www.rferl.org/content/white-house-proposes-expand-access-to-arctic/27221758.html.
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north.”15 Like the U.S., the countries of Scandinavia have recently undergone a process of reform
toward Arctic expansion. The Nordic countries have also pledged closer defense ties with one
another. Because of the Russian militarization of the Arctic, these countries have begun to
recognize a decrease in international security. In fact, the Russian militarization of the Arctic and
re-opening of USSR-era bases, especially Alakurtti, has been called the biggest challenge to
European security in history, according to European Union policy makers.16 As a result, in March
of 2015, Norway increased its spending for northern defense capabilities by $1 billion, and in the
same month the Canadian government authorized a $3.4 billion project that would fund the
construction of five Arctic offshore patrol ships and better northern military capabilities.17 Both
of these acts show further concern on the part of the international community, demonstrating
international pushback from individual states. Further, Russia’s aggression in the Arctic has
caused distress that Russia has become the world’s newest enemy. After several incidents in the
summer of 2015 involving Russian military planes being intercepted in Eastern Europe, two
high-ranking officials from the Pentagon called Russia “the most significant existential threat to
the U.S.”18 Obviously, no one in the international community is overly thrilled that Russia has
taken up new expansion policies in the Far-North.
On a somewhat larger scale, Russia’s moves have prompted reaction from the United
Nations to test the legality of said actions. As mentioned, the UN has yet to make a decision on
Russia’s proposal for vast amounts of territory in the Arctic Ocean. According to the 1982
United Nations Law of the Sea Convention, any state may claim an “exclusive economic zone
15 Reid Standish, “U.S. Assumes Arctic Council Leadership Amid Increasing Tension in the Far-North,” Foreign Policy, last modified April 24, 2015, http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/04/24/u-s-assumes-arctic-council-leadership-amid-increasing-tension-in-the-far-north/?wp_login_redirect=016 Ibid. 17 Ibid. 18 Morgan Chalfant, “Russia Claims North Pole for Itself, Plants Titanium Flag on Floor of Arctic Ocean,” Washington Free Beacon, last modified August 5, 2015, http://freebeacon.com/national-security/russia-claims-north-pole-for-itself-plants-titanium-russian-flag-on-floor-of-arctic-ocean/.
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over a continental shelf abutting its shores.”19 A state claiming the waters adjacent to its coastline
as its territory, therefore, is perfectly legal. However, in Russia’s case, the situation is more
complicated. The Law of the Sea Convention legalizes Russia’s current territory in the Arctic
Ocean, but Russia’s bid, if accepted, would increase Russia’s sea territory to about 463,000
square miles.20 Russia has provided the United Nations with more research than in the previous
proposal it made in 2002 for the same territory. Back then, the UN rejected the claim, but with
more evidence to back up its case, Russia may be able to have the proposal accepted. This is
important, because it shows that Russia is interested in doing whatever possible to obtain the sea
territory legally, a far cry from Russia’s illegal annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula. At
least this time, Putin’s actions are legitimate. The legality of Russia’s attempted Arctic
annexation is not without controversy, however. The United Nations could very well reject the
proposal for the second time due to Russia’s actions in Syria. It remains uncertain what the fate
of the Arctic sea territory will be before 2016. Though the international community has offered
pushback to the Russian actions in the Arctic, further pushback will undoubtedly cause more
serious effects to the international community in the future.
What are the implications of Russia’s involvement in the Arctic on the future?
Much is being said about Russia’s increased aggression in various parts of the
globe as of late, and the Arctic Front is no exception. Russia’s militarization and expansion in the
Arctic has the real potential to bring about a new Cold War. As discussed previously, Russia’s
actions have ushered in a new era of escalation among the states party to the Arctic Council.
Besides the fact that the United States, Canada, and Scandinavian nations have stepped up
19 Ibid. 20 Ibid.
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security in the north, these nations are already considering how soon Arctic militaries may see
action.
For example, the U.S. Navy is not yet considered an absolutely necessary presence in
Alaska, but many American military officials feel that the near future will see an even stronger
rise in military tension in the Arctic, and that it is necessary that the United States catch up to
Russia’s level of Arctic development. “Government officials say the United States is lagging
behind other nations, chief among them Russia, in preparing for the new environmental,
economic and geopolitical realities facing the region.”21 Though tensions have not yet built up to
a frightening level, the pattern of hurried escalation seen currently between the United States and
Russia in the Arctic is reminiscent of Cold War politics. The geopolitical uncertainty in the
region pits both powers against each other in a race to expand, militarize, and modernize the
Arctic. The race has created a distrust, an ominous cloud that looms over the Arctic Ocean that is
likely to burst in a few years. How large this rupture will be, however, is difficult to forecast.
Based on the amount of recent military operations carried out by Russia, a military
conflict in the Arctic is not unlikely. As previously outlined, Russia’s militarization of the area is
one of the main ways Putin is putting the Arctic to use. Some operations have given the West,
especially the United States, reason to be concerned for security. For example, on September 17,
2014, the anniversary of the Soviet Union’s invasion of Poland, both American and Canadian air
forces scrambled jets to intercept Russian aircraft, six near the Alaskan coast, and 2 long-range
bombers over the Beaufort Sea near the Canadian coast.22 In November of 2014, an increased
presence of Russian submarines was discovered by NATO in the North Atlantic, the exact
21 Steven Lee Myers, “U.S. is Playing Catch-up with Russia in Scramble for the Arctic,” New York Times, last modified August 29, 2015, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/30/world/united-states-russia-arctic-exploration.html?_r=1. 22 Heather A. Conley and Caroline Rohloff, New Ice Curtain: Russia’s Strategic Reach to the Arctic (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2015), 82.
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location Russian subs based out of the Kola Peninsula frequented during the Cold War.23 Above
all, in 2014 Russia conducted the largest military exercise in its history in the Vostok region of
Siberia, involving over 100,000 troops.24 These, along with several other events have obviously
alarmed other arctic states. If this rate of militarization continues and the United States pushes to
match the Russians in the Arctic, a replay of the mid-twentieth century is the only logical
outcome. Therefore, a new Cold War is a very real possibility in the future should the arms
escalation in the Arctic continue.
Another possible future outcome of Russia’s Arctic claims is further territory annexation
by the Federation. Recently, a series of maps from July 2012 resurfaced in a Moscow-based
newspaper. The maps were detailed predictions of Russian territorial grabs that would result in a
very different-looking world by the year 2035. The maps involved not only Ukraine and Eastern
Europe, but also territories in the Arctic.25 Though doubtful to be a serious Russian foreign
policy plan, the maps do hold some water considering Russia’s latest territorial grabs. The plans
detail how control of eastern Ukraine and then northern Europe and the Arctic region will lead to
a disintegration of the European Union, and Russian dominance in Europe. It is also mentioned
that Russia would then move on to claim the area known as New Russia, along the northern
Black Sea coastline. The significance of this plan is that much of it has actually come to fruition
within the last two years. Crimea and Eastern Ukraine are under Russian control as well as the
Sea of Okhotsk and, if the UN approves, much of the Arctic Ocean. 2035 is still a long way off,
but if Russia continues its expansionist policies in the Arctic, the world map as described in the
Moscow newspaper may become a reality.
Conclusion23 Ibid. 24 Ibid, 19. 25 Frank Jacobs, “What Russia Could Look Like in 2035, if Putin Gets His Wish,” Foreign Policy, last modified June 4, 2014, http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/06/04/what-russia-could-look-like-in-2035-if-putin-gets-his-wish/.
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Russia’s claims in the Arctic have caused much disturbance in the international
community. For Russia, the Arctic is a promising region for natural resources, exploration, and
military development, but for the rest of the world, Russian expansion in the Arctic represents a
rising threat to international security. Whatever Russia’s ultimate goals are in the Arctic, the
future most definitely holds some form of conflict, whether hot or cold. Allies within the Arctic
Council may very well end up on opposite sides of a Cold War to rival that of the mid-twentieth
century. Only time will truly tell how Russia is able to use the vast Arctic in years to come.
Critical Bibliography
Bender, Jeremy, and Mike Nudelman. "This Map Shows Russia's Dominant Militarization of the
Arctic." Business Insider. Business Insider, Inc, 07 Aug. 2015. Web. 15 Oct. 2015.
I thought this source was a great visual of Russian military positions in the Arctic, which
is why I used it. Though it was Business Insider and not a site that was more dedicated to
foreign policy, I still found the map to be very informative and detailed.
Chalfant, Morgan. "Russia Claims North Pole for Itself, Plants Titanium Russian Flag on Floor
of Arctic Ocean." Washington Free Beacon. Washington Free Beacon, 5 Aug. 2015.
Web. 15 Oct. 2015.
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This article was informative and actually proved to be of better use to me than I originally
thought it would. Besides discussing the Russian flag that was sent to the bottom of the
Arctic Ocean, I felt that the source did well in explaining the dilemma between the UN
and Russia as far as Russia’s most recent territorial claim in the Arctic.
Conley, Heather A., and Caroline Rohloff. New Ice Curtain: Russia's Strategic Reach to the
Arctic. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2015. Center for Strategic & International
Studies. CSIS Europe, Aug. 2015. Web. 15 Oct. 2015.
This was my go-to source for almost any information that I required. It was extremely
well-researched, and very extensive. It was over a hundred pages, so it took a while for
me to page through the whole thing, but I managed to know the source inside-out by the
end of my research.
Eckel, Mike. "White House Proposes To Expand Access To Arctic."
RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty. RFE/Reuters, 2 Sept. 2015. Web. 15 Oct. 2015.
This article was especially helpful in researching what activity the United States was
involved in at the same time as Russia in the Arctic. It was great to get another
perspective of the issue. I used this source mostly when describing the international
pushback from other states.
Haines, John R. "‘Ali Baba's Cave’: The Sea of Okhotsk's Contentious Triangle." Orbis 58.4
(2014): 584-603. Web.
This journal was very long but filled with extremely detailed research about the Sea of
Okhotsk and the “Peanut Hole” of previously unclaimed water within it. The source came
in handy when researching Russia’s claim of the Sea of Okhotsk.
Jacobs, Fank. "What Russia Could Look Like in 2035, If Putin Gets His Wish."
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Foreignpolicy.com. Foreign Policy, 4 June 2014. Web. 15 Oct. 2015.
I found this to be a very fun article to read. I was amused by the seemingly extreme view
of the maps. This source proved to be a lot more useful than I originally thought,
however, and I was able to gather much information about one possible future scenario as
a result of Russia’s presence in the Arctic.
Myers, Steven Lee. "U.S. Is Playing Catch-Up With Russia in Scramble for the Arctic." The
New
York Times. The New York Times, 29 Aug. 2015. Web. 15 Oct. 2015.
This article was another one that was useful in the juxtaposition between the United
States and Russia. It offered concrete examples of the U.S. expansion into the Arctic as a
direct response of Russia’s activity. I used this source when describing international
pushback.
Nuttall, Mark, and T. V. Callaghan. The Arctic: Environment, People, Policy. Singapore:
Harwood Academic, 2000. Print.
This book, though not specifically cited in the paper, provided great background
information on the Arctic. I thoroughly enjoyed reading it, because it taught me of the
day-to-day issues on an individual level in the region and explained general foreign
policy in regards to the Arctic.
Reterski, Milosz. "Breaking the Ice." Foreign Affairs. Council on Foreign Relations, 12 Dec.
2014. Web. 15 Oct. 2015.
This was one of my favorite sources to use. Foreign Affairs never ceases to amaze me in
regards to how well-researched the stories are. This source was especially helpful in
researching Russian icebreaker numbers and capabilities. I cited this source when
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explaining Russia’s plans for nuclear-powered and record-breaking quantities of
icebreakers.
"Russia Files UN Bid For Arctic Territory." RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty. RFE/RL, 4 Aug.
2015. Web. 15 Oct. 2015.
I found Radio Free Europe to be generally a good source for the topic based solely on the
fact that there were many articles on the same topic to be found. I used this particular
article to get more details on Russia’s newest bid to the UN to acquire new territory in the
Arctic Ocean.
Standish, Reid. "U.S. Assumes Arctic Council Leadership Amid Increasing Tension in the Far
North." Foreign Policy. Passport, 24 Apr. 2015. Web. 15 Oct. 2015.
This article dealt mostly with the members of the Arctic Council and was useful when
trying to find information about the politics of the Council, especially as of late. I thought
it was well-written.
Whitmore, Brian. "Why Putin Is Losing." RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty. RFE/RL, 10 Aug.
2015. Web. 15 Oct. 2015.
This was one of my most-used sources, mostly because it included information on a
much broader scale than just the Arctic, but which was still relevant for my topic. I used
it when researching how the Ukrainian Conflict played a role in Russia’s militarization of
the Arctic.
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