rv 2015: if you build it, will it flood? climate change vulnerabilities and strategies by james...

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Jim Allison Manager of Planning

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Jim  Allison  Manager  of  Planning  

The  Capitol  Corridor  Service  

Mar2nez,  CA:  Rail  and  the  Larger  Picture…  � Twenty-­‐two  (22)  round  trip  passenger  trains  through  Martinez  �  Capitol  Corridor  (15  RTs);  San  Joaquin  (5  RTs);  Amtrak  Long  Distance  (2  RTs)    

� Union  Pacific  Railroad  freight  rail  operations  between  Port  of  Oakland  &  Roseville  Yard  &  beyond  go  through  Martinez  

Adapta2on  keeps  the  wheels  on,  but  how  do  WE  adapt?  

Example  Hotspot:  Mar2nez  Sta2on  

Objec2ves  �  Show  vulnerabilities  of  Capitol  Corridor  and  freight  rail  physical  assets  to  specific  climate  change  and  sea  level  rise  scenarios.  � Detailed  assessment  by  hotspots  along  the  route  

� Martinez  CA  hotspot  to  illustrate  adaptation  challenges  in  a  governance  setting  � How  can  we  build  the  foundation  for  smart  collaborative  resilience  and  adaptation  projects?  

Physical  Assets  •  Flooded  tracks  and  stations  •  Ballast  damage  and  erosion  •  Damaged  electrical  and  communication  lines  

Service  and  O&M  •  Disruption  to  train  service    •  Increased  maintenance  costs  

Impacts  on  Capitol  Corridor  

•  Railroad  tracks  

•  Railroad  bridges  

•  Signal  system  

•  Martinez  station  

Assets  

•  Existing  conditions  •  Physical  characteristics  •  Functional  characteristics  •  Governance/Management  •  Information  availability  •  Consequences  

Vulnerability  Metrics  

Assessing  Vulnerability  

Climate  Change  Impacts  

•  More  frequent  flooding  •  Flooding  lasts  longer  

Storm  Events  

•  Frequent  or  permanent  inundation  

•  Increased  shoreline  erosion  and  wave  over-­‐topping  of  shoreline  protection  (e.g.  levees)  

•  Elevated  groundwater  levels  and  salinity  

Sea  Level  Rise  

Components  of  Total  Water  Level  Wave  

Wind  

Barometric  pressure  

Tide  difference  

Sea  level  rise  

Extreme Tide Level/Storm Surge (in) Sea

Level Rise (in)

Water Level above MHHW

(in) 1-yr 2-yr 5-yr 10-yr 25-yr 50-yr 100-

yr

+0 0 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 +6 6 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 +12 12 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 +18 18 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 +24 24 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 +30 30 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 +36 36 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 +42 42 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 +48 48 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 +54 54 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 +60 60 72 78 84 90 96 102 108

 MHHW:  Mean  Higher  High  Water  –  the  average  of  the  higher  high  2de  water  level  each  day  observed  over  a  Tidal  Datum  Epoch  (19  years)  

Permanent  Inunda2on  

Temporary  Flooding  

2030  

2050  

2080  

2100  

Considering  the  Risks  

Current  water  levels;  0  ft  sea  level  rise  

•  1  ft  sea  level  rise;  •  0  ft  slr  +  1-­‐yr  extreme  water  level  (100%  chance  of  occurring  in  a  year)  

•  2  ft  sea  level  rise;  •  1  ft  slr  +  1-­‐yr  extreme  water  level  •  0  ft  slr  +  5-­‐yr  extreme  water  level  (20%  chance  occurring  each  year)  

•  3  ft  sea  level  rise;  •  2  ft  slr  +  1-­‐yr  extreme  water  level      •  1  ft  slr  +  5-­‐yr  extreme  water  level  

•  0  ft  slr  +  25-­‐yr  extreme  water  level  (4%  chance  occurring  each  year)  

•  4  ft  sea  level  rise;  •  3  ft  slr  +  1-­‐yr  extreme  water  level    •  2  ft  slr  +  5-­‐yr  extreme  water  level  

•  1  ft  slr  +  25-­‐yr  extreme  water  level    •  0  ft  slr  +  100-­‐yr  extreme  water  level  

(1%  chance  occurring  each  year)    

•  5  ft  sea  level  rise;  •  4  ft  slr  +  1-­‐yr  extreme  water  level    •  3  ft  slr  +  5-­‐yr  extreme  water  level  

•  2  ft  slr  +  25-­‐yr  extreme  water  level    •  1  ft  slr  +  100-­‐yr  extreme  water  level  

Rail  Poten2al  Consequences  �  Flooding  of  bridges  or  of  tracks  will  interrupt  train  operations.  

� Permanent  or  frequent  inundation  of  ballast  and  roadbed  will  damage  the  integrity  of  the  track  structure.  

�  Flooding  of  signal  cabinets  and  lights  can  cause  problems  for  the  signal  system  and  result  in  service  interruptions  and  delays  throughout  the  system.  

�  Flooding  of  roads  near  the  station  will  cause  problems  for  passengers  and  other  personnel  trying  to  access  the  station  and  boarding  platform.  

Neighboring  Property  Poten2al  Consequences  � We  don’t  know  them,  what  they  do,  what  they  want  � Risks,  vulnerability,  and  resiliency  differ  by  asset  � Do  we  want  to  team  up  with  our  neighbor?  � How  do  we  equitably  pay  for  the  adaptation?  �  Is  one  adaptation  appropriate  across  asset  types?  � What  about  the  other  neighbors  around  that  should  participate  in  the  sense  of  fairness?  

Parks  and  Recreation  

Refineries  

Long  Linear  Asset  Exposed  �  Linear  asset  in  many  situations  

�  Rail  at  the  water’s  edge  �  Rail  in  the  marsh  �  Rail  in  &  amongst  urban  area  

� Neighbors  all  around  with  different  motivations  for  adaptation  solutions  and  financial  capacity  

�  Information  followed  by  governance  structure  is  the  largest  gap  

Governance  Collabora2on  � Consider  route  options  with  future  sea  level  rise  and  flooding  risks  in  mind.  

� Need  to  develop  local  and  regional  partnerships  to  approach  adaptation  projects  collaboratively.  

How  WE  adapt  ma]ers  

Thank  you  Jim  Allison  Manager  of  Planning  Capitol  Corridor  Joint  Powers  Authority  

�  [email protected]  �  510-­‐464-­‐6994  

http://www.adaptingtorisingtides.org/