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Mohammed Salem Awad Aden Regional Director YEMENIA Date of Issue: 30 Nov 2014

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Page 1: Ryanair presentation

Mohammed Salem Awad

Aden Regional Director

YEMENIA

Date of Issue: 30 Nov 2014

Page 2: Ryanair presentation

“Excellence is never an accident. It is always the result of high intention, sincere effort, and intelligent execution; it represents the wise choice of many alternatives -choice, not chance, determines your destiny.”

― Aristotle

Aristotle

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• RYANAIR• Data Base.• Forecasting Approach • Mathematical Model • Forecasting Accuracy • Signal Tracking Analysis• Passengers Evaluation

• Model Vs Actual• Measuring The Error

• RYANAIR ON SPOT • Passenger Forecasting

2015 – graph• Passenger Forecasting

2015 – Table• Contact

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Ryanair is Europe’s only ultra-low cost carrier (ULCC), operating more than 1,600 daily flights (over 500,000 per year) from 57 bases, across 1,600 low fare routes, connecting 180 destinations in 29 countries and operating a fleet of 303 new Boeing 737-800 aircraft.Ryanair has recently announced firm orders for a further 175 new Boeing aircraft, which will be delivered between 2014 and 2018. Ryanair currently has a team of more than 9,000 highly skilled professionals, will carry over 81.5 million passengers this year and has an outstanding 29-year safety record.

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Golden Rule -4 < Signal Tracking < + 4

And Coefficient of Determination > 80 %

Defining the Max/Min S. T. in the control band.

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Golden Rule -4 < Signal Tracking < + 4

And Coefficient of Determination > 80 %

We will use the concept of

Forecasting by Objectives

to develop a fair matrix decision, so forecasting by objective ; can be either by:

- Classical Method by Evaluation R2

- Setting Signal Tracking S. T. (36 ) to Zero

- Defining the Max/Min S. T. in the control band.

- Targeting the final results of the annual long term forecast.

- Reflecting the impact of the most recent monthly data.

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Rotational Vs Displacement

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(R) Coefficient of Determination Vs Signal Tracking

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Golden Rule -4 < Signal Tracking < + 4

And R Coefficient of Determination > 80 %

Max/Min S. T. in the control Range.

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For 36 data set only two reading that exceeds 5 % errors.

All the remaining reading for 3 years data base are below 5 % errors !!!!!!!!

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ON

TAR

GET

2015

PASSENGERS FORECASTING

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Welcome in the Club :

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Contact :

[email protected]/airports_forecasting

Date of Issue: 30 Nov 2014