Title of Presentation

Passengers Forecasting Mohammed Salem Awad

Aden Regional Director

YEMENIA

RYANAIR ON SPOT Date of Issue: 30 Nov 201412/2/2014 7:33 PM 2007 Microsoft Corporation. All rights reserved. Microsoft, Windows, Windows Vista and other product names are or may be registered trademarks and/or trademarks in the U.S. and/or other countries.The information herein is for informational purposes only and represents the current view of Microsoft Corporation as of the date of this presentation. Because Microsoft must respond to changing market conditions, it should not be interpreted to be a commitment on the part of Microsoft, and Microsoft cannot guarantee the accuracy of any information provided after the date of this presentation. MICROSOFT MAKES NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESS, IMPLIED OR STATUTORY, AS TO THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRESENTATION.

1Excellence is never an accident. It is always the result of high intention, sincere effort, and intelligent execution; it represents the wise choice of many alternatives - choice, not chance, determines your destiny.

Aristotle

Aristotle12/2/2014 7:33 PM 2007 Microsoft Corporation. All rights reserved. Microsoft, Windows, Windows Vista and other product names are or may be registered trademarks and/or trademarks in the U.S. and/or other countries.The information herein is for informational purposes only and represents the current view of Microsoft Corporation as of the date of this presentation. Because Microsoft must respond to changing market conditions, it should not be interpreted to be a commitment on the part of Microsoft, and Microsoft cannot guarantee the accuracy of any information provided after the date of this presentation. MICROSOFT MAKES NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESS, IMPLIED OR STATUTORY, AS TO THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRESENTATION.

2OutlineRYANAIRData Base.Forecasting Approach Mathematical Model Forecasting Accuracy Signal Tracking AnalysisPassengers Evaluation Model Vs Actual Measuring The ErrorRYANAIR ON SPOT Passenger Forecasting 2015 graphPassenger Forecasting 2015 TableContactRYANAIR Ryanair is Europes only ultra-low cost carrier (ULCC), operating more than 1,600 daily flights (over 500,000 per year) from 57 bases, across 1,600 low fare routes, connecting 180 destinations in 29 countries and operating a fleet of 303 new Boeing 737-800 aircraft.Ryanair has recently announced firm orders for a further 175 new Boeing aircraft, which will be delivered between 2014 and 2018. Ryanair currently has a team of more than 9,000 highly skilled professionals, will carry over 81.5 million passengers this year and has an outstanding 29-year safety record.

12/2/2014 7:41 PM 2007 Microsoft Corporation. All rights reserved. Microsoft, Windows, Windows Vista and other product names are or may be registered trademarks and/or trademarks in the U.S. and/or other countries.The information herein is for informational purposes only and represents the current view of Microsoft Corporation as of the date of this presentation. Because Microsoft must respond to changing market conditions, it should not be interpreted to be a commitment on the part of Microsoft, and Microsoft cannot guarantee the accuracy of any information provided after the date of this presentation. MICROSOFT MAKES NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESS, IMPLIED OR STATUTORY, AS TO THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRESENTATION.

4Data Base

Forecasting ApproachGolden Rule -4 < Signal Tracking < + 4 And Coefficient of Determination > 80 %

Defining the Max/Min S. T. in the control band.Forecasting ApproachGolden Rule -4 < Signal Tracking < + 4 And Coefficient of Determination > 80 %

We will use the concept of Forecasting by Objectives to develop a fair matrix decision, so forecasting by objective ; can be either by:

- Classical Method by Evaluation R2 Setting Signal Tracking S. T. (36 ) to Zero Defining the Max/Min S. T. in the control band. Targeting the final results of the annual long term forecast. Reflecting the impact of the most recent monthly data.

Mathematical Model Rotational Vs Displacement

Forecasting Accuracy Coefficient of Determination Vs Signal TrackingSignal Tracking AnalysisGolden Rule -4 < Signal Tracking < + 4 And R Coefficient of Determination > 80 %

Max/Min S. T. in the control Range.Passengers Evaluation - RYANAIR

Evaluation ( Measuring The Errors)

Evaluation ( Measuring The Errors)

For 36 data set only two reading that exceeds 5 % errors.All the remaining reading for 3 years data base are below 5 % errors !!!!!!!!

13RYANAIR ON SPOT 2015Passengers forecasting

ON TARGETForecasting 2015 RYANAIR

Passengers FORECASTING 2015

Welcome in the Club :

Contact : Mohammed Salem Awad Consultant Email:smartdecision2002@yahoo.comwww.slideshare.net/airports_forecastingTel: 00967736255814 P.O. Box: 6002KahormaksarAdenYemen

Date of Issue: 30 Nov 2014