Date Name of Meeting 1

Climate Change and its Potential Impacts of

on Human Health

Don WuebblesDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences

University of Illinois

The Union, Chicago March 2, 2018

S P E C I A L R E P O R T

Fourth National Climate Assessment ● Volume I

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Climate affects regional well-being (health effects, food

availability, ecosystems, etc.)

Climate helps to determine the quantity and quality of water

available for human use.

Climate determines the severity of heat and cold waves,

severe precipitation, floods, droughts, and major storms.

Sea level rise can change the landscape of our planet.

Why Care about climate change?

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USGCRP Climate Science Special Report

Volume 1 of the 4th National Climate Assessment– CSSR is an authoritative assessment of the science of

climate change, with a focus on the United States• 477 pages

• 32 Lead Authors and 19 Contributing Authors (federal, national lab, academic, and industry scientists)

– Overseen by a federal Science Steering Committee

– Extensively reviewed (including public, National Academy of Sciences, and U.S. agencies)

• 3 Review editors that were not authors

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science2017.globalchange.govNCA Volume II on impacts expected to be published in Dec. 2018

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The Science: The Bottom Line

Our climate is changing, It is happening now; It is happening extremely rapidly; Severe weather is becoming more intense; Sea levels are rising; It is largely happening because of human

activities and associated pollution; The climate will continue to change over the

coming decades.

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There are

Many

Observed

Indicators

of a

Changing

Climate Tropospheric T

N.H.

Snow

Cover

Land surface air T

Sea surface T

Ocean heat content Specific humidity

Arctic sea ice extent

Glacier mass balance

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Global Annually-AveragedTemperature Record (NOAA, through 2016)

Relative to observations for 1901-1960

Globally, annually-averaged temperature has increased by 1.8 °F from 1901-2016

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Conditions today appear to be unusual in the context of the last 2,000 years …

Updated from Mann et al., 2008 PNAS

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Fig

. S

PM

.1b

Temperature trends (change in °F) for the period 1986-2015 relative to 1901-1960

Fig

. S

PM

.2

Our Climate Continues to Change Rapidly

The global long-term warming trend is continuing.

2016 was the warmest year on record, 2015 is 2nd and far surpassed 2014, which is 3rd.

Sixteen of the last 17 years are the warmest years on record for the globe.

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Observed U.S. Temperature Change

1991-2012 compared to the 1901-1960

1986–2015 relative to 1901–1960

Over contiguous United States, annually-averaged temperature has increased by 1.8 °F from 1895-2016

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We are seeing changing trends in extreme weather and climate events

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NOAA AnalysesIncreasing Effects of Severe Weather on U.S.

Economy: Total of $1.1 trillion since 1980Every U.S. region has been affected by this growing trend. Billion-dollar weather

and climate disasters

frequency: 1980-2016

(accounts for

inflation)

203 weather and climate disasters reached or exceeded $1 billion during this period (CPI-adjusted)

Similar trend globally

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Certain Types of Extreme Events Show Important Trends Globally and in United States Heat waves are generally increasing in number and intensity;

Cold waves are decreasing.

More precipitation coming as larger events.

Increasing risk of floods in some regions (NE, MW).

Increasing intensity of droughts in some regions (SW, SE).

Incidence of large wildfires has increased (West, Alaska)

Increasing intensity of Atlantic hurricanes.

Tornado activity more variable – increase in outbreaks.

Hail may be coming more intense also but more uncertain.

These trends are expected to continue.

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Many lines of evidence demonstrate that human activities,especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are primarilyresponsible for the observed climate changes.

For the period extending over the last century, there are nocredible alternative explanations supported by the extent ofthe observational evidence. Solar output changes and natural variability can only contribute

marginally to the observed changes in climate over this timeperiod.

No natural cycles are found in the observational record that canexplain the observed changes in climate.

What is Causing Observed Changes in Climate

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It is extremely likely

that human activities,

especially emissions of

greenhouse gases, are

the dominant cause of

the observed warming

since the mid-20th

century.

Contributions to radiative forcing on climate since 1750

Human Activities Driving Climate Change

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Climate will Continue to Change Globally climate is expected to continue to change over this century

and beyond. The magnitude of climate change depends primarily on the additional

amount of greenhouse gases emitted globally, and on the sensitivity of Earth’s climate to those emissions.

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Fig

. T

S.1

5

Global Temperature and Other Changes in Climate Depend

on Future Emissions

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Projected U.S. Temperature

Change

1991-2012 compared to the 1901-1960

Relative to 1976–2005

Projected changes in average annual temperatures (°F)

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Projected Changes: Number of Days with T>90°F and T<32°F for 2036-2065 (relative to 1976-

2005) for a High Emissions Scenario

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Extreme Precipitation

Event Frequency for events of 2-day

duration and 5-year return

(for high and intermediate

scenarios)

2050 higher emissions

2085 higher emissions

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A projected increase in precipitation rates, tropical cyclone intensity, and the number of very intense tropical cyclones – but in not the overallnumber of storms.

Increasing Trends for Intense Hurricanes

Sept. 7, 2017

Sea level rise will increase the frequency and extent of extreme flooding associated with coastal storms.

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The CHANGING OCEAN

WIDESPREADOBSERVED IMPACTS

Sea Level Rise Now Highest Rate in at least 2800 years

Sea levels have risen 7-8 inches since 1900 1-4 feet of additional sea level rise by 2100 Acidification of the Oceans Changing ocean circulation

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Impacts are already apparent in every region and in important sectors including health,

water, agriculture, energy, and more.

© Sco

tt Olso

n/G

etty Images

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Increasing Stress on Human HealthClimate change threatens human health and well-being in many ways, e.g., more extreme weather events and wildfire, decreased air quality, and diseases transmitted by insects, food, and water.

Projected changes in Tick Habitat

Wildfire smoke haswidespread health effects

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Climate change affects human healthTwo main ways:

Changing the severity or frequency of health problems already affected by climate orweather factors

Creating unprecedented or unanticipated health problems / threats in places where they have not previously occurred.

Climate and Health Assessment, 2016

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How does Climate

Change Affect Respiratory

Health?

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You probably already know….

Heat events are the most lethal extreme weather events

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Heat Waves are Projected to Increase

Chicago 1995-type heat wave projected to become routine by end of century – as many as 3 per year by 2100

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080

Num

ber

of H

eat W

aves

per

Dec

ade

Lower Emissions

Higher Emissions

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Epidemiology of heat waves Risk factors for hyperthermia:

• Age

• Underlying medical conditions /mental illness

• Income and poverty status

• Homelessness

• Social isolation

• Lack of access to health care and cooling facilities

• Neighborhood features: land use/ land cover, crime rate, housing type, urban heat island

Individual

Community

Characteristics

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Vector-borne DiseasesChanges in Lyme Disease Case

Report Distribution• Changes in geographic and seasonal distributions of vectors and associated diseases:

• Lyme Disease (earlier tick activity and northward range expansion)

• West Nile Virus (geographic distribution of mosquito, abundance and infection prevalence)

• Emergence/re-emergence of new vector-borne pathogens

• Difficult to model:

• Complex transmission cycles

• Social and environmental driversCDC, 2015

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Spread of Vector and Waterborne Diseases

• Malaria• Dengue Fever• Zika• Cholera• Typhoid fever• Hantavirus• Diptheria• Lyme Disease

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You already know….

High pollen counts cause asthma and allergy attacks

http://q13fox.com/2016/03/30/heres-everything-you-need-to-know-about-allergy-season-in-western-washington/

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Ragweed Pollen Season Lengthens

Data for 1995 to 2011

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Major outdoor and indoor air pollutants can seriously affect respiratory health

You already know . . .

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Climate Change Affects Air Quality• Increase in exposure to

ozone and associated health impacts

• Increase in frequency and severity of wildfires

• Increase in exposure to aeroallergens

• Impacts on indoor air are not as well studied

Fann et al., 2015: Assumes constant emissions

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You probably know….

Extreme events such as floods can cause drownings and other injuries

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3097091/12-missing-flooding-Texas-sweeps-away-vacation-home.html

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Projected Changes in Extremes

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Extreme Weather Events and Health• Increase in frequency and intensity

of extreme events:

– Death, injury, illness

– Exacerbation of underlying conditions

– Pregnancy outcomes

– Mental health impacts

– Pre/post health impacts

• Disruption of essential infrastructure affects access to healthcare and emergency response

• Increase in exposure to coastal flooding

Smith and Katz, 2013

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RCP8.5

CO2eq = 1313 ppm

Fig

. S

PM

.8RCP2.6

CO2eq = 475 ppm

We have a choice

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What should we do?There are only three options:

• Mitigation, meaning measures to reduce the pace &

magnitude of the changes in global climate being

caused by human activities.

• Adaptation, meaning measures to reduce the adverse

impacts on human well-being resulting from the changes

in climate that do occur.

• Suffering the adverse impacts and societal disruption

that are not avoided by either mitigation or adaptation.

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Concerning the three options…

• Right now we are doing some of each.

• What’s up for grabs is the future mix.

• Minimizing the amount of suffering in that mix can only be achieved by doing a lot of mitigation and a lot of adaptation.

– Mitigation alone inadequate; climate is already changing & can’t be stopped quickly.

– Adaptation alone inadequate; adaptation gets costlier & less effective as climate change grows.

– We need enough mitigation to avoid the unmanageable, enough adaptation to manage the unavoidable.

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Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions conveys substantial, immediate and long-

term health benefits• Reducing global greenhouse gas emissions could prevent approximately 0.5

million premature deaths due to air pollution in 2030, 1.3 million in 2050, and 2.2 million in 2100

• The economic value of these health benefits was estimated to be greater than the cost of reducing greenhouse gases

West et al., 2013

Co-benefits of avoided premature mortality from PM2.5 and ozone in 2030, 2050, and 2100 (deaths per year per 1000 km2)

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A Sense of Hope

Our future depends on how we act to limit climate change.

Adaptation is not a choice – our choice is whether to adapt proactively or respond to the consequences.

Adaptation requires a paradigm shift, focusing on managing risks.

We can draw on our long history of responding to changing conditions in facing the challenges of climate change.

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The Lancet

May 2009

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Thank You

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Food Safety, Nutrition, and Distribution

• Increased exposure to pathogens and toxins in foods associated with rising temperatures and weather extremes

• Greater chemical contamination in the food chain:

• Increase pesticide use

• Increase veterinary drug use

• Lower nutritional value of food due to rising carbon dioxide levels

• Disruption of food distribution system due to extreme weather events

Climate and Health Assessment, 2016

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Intersection of Social Determinants of Health and Vulnerability

Climate and Health Assessment, 2016

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The right-hand side of the figure shows a stylized epidemic curve, with indications of approximately when cases are detected, confirmed in a laboratory, and when interventions (public health responses) are implemented. The left-hand side shows the opportunity for disease prevention when moving from an approach of surveillance and response to prediction and prevention using environmental information