• S-Sit and organize materials for the lesson… Get your journal and a sharpened pencil.

• E-Examine and follow teacher’s directions… On your next blank page, write today’s date at the top. Title this page ~ Probability

• T-Take the challenge! Write the CQ in journal below the title:

Challenge Question: What operation do you use to solve compound probability if you see the word “and” in the word problem? What

about if you see the word “or”?

Warm-Up: What do you remember about probability from 5th and 6th grade?

Make a list of everything you remember in your journal now!

MARCH 12, 20154/2/2015

REVIEW OF REVIEW OF PROBABILITYPROBABILITY

PROBABILITY Probability is a measure of how likely

an event is to occur.

For example – Today there is a 60% chance of rain.The odds of winning the lottery are a

million to one.What are some examples you can

think of?

PRESENTATION

PROBABILITY Probabilities are written as:

Fractions from 0 to 1

Decimals from 0 to 1

Percents from 0% to 100%

PRESENTATION

PROBABILITY If an event is certain to happen, then

the probability of the event is 1 or 100%.

If an event will NEVER happen, then the probability of the event is 0 or 0%.

If an event is just as likely to happen as to not happen, then the probability of the event is ½, 0.5 or 50%.

PRESENTATION

PROBABILITYImpossible Unlikely Equal Chances Likely Certain

0 0.5 1

0% 50% 100%

½

PRESENTATION

When a meteorologist states that the chance of rain is 50%, the meteorologist is saying that it is equally likely to rain or not to rain.

If the chance of rain rises to 80%, it is more likely to rain.

If the chance drops to 20%, then it may rain, but it probably will not rain.

PROBABILITY

PRESENTATION

PROBABILITY What are some events that will never

happen and have a probability of 0%?

What are some events that are certain to happen and have a probability of 100%?

What are some events that have equal chances of happening and have a probability of 50%?

PRESENTATION

PROBABILITY The probability of an event is written:

P(event) = number of ways event can occur

total number of outcomes

PRESENTATION

PROBABILITYP(event) = number of ways event can

occur total number of outcomes

An outcome is a possible result of a probability experiment

When rolling a number cube, the possible outcomes are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6

PRESENTATION

PROBABILITYP(event) = number of ways event can

occur total number of outcomes

An event is a specific result of a probability experiment

When rolling a number cube, the event of rolling an even number is 3 (you could roll a 2, 4 or 6).

PRESENTATION

PROBABILITYP(event) = number of ways event can occur

total number of outcomes

What is the probability of getting heads when flipping a coin?

P(heads) = number of ways = 1 head on a coin = 1 total outcomes = 2 sides to a coin = 2

P(heads)= ½ = 0.5 = 50%

PRESENTATION

1. What is the probability that the spinner will stop on part A?

2. What is the probability that the spinner will stop on

(a) An even number?(b) An odd number?

3. What is the probability that the spinner will stop in the area marked A?

ABC D

3 12

AC B

TRY THESE:

LEARNING TOGETHER

PROBABILITY WORD PROBLEM: Lawrence is the captain of his track team.

The team is deciding on a color and all eight members wrote their choice down on equal size cards. If Lawrence picks one card at random, what is the probability that he will pick blue?

Number of blues = 3Total cards = 8

yellow

red

blue blue

blue

green black

black

3/8 or 0.375 or 37.5%

LEARNING TOGETHER

Donald is rolling a number cube labeled 1 to 6. What is the probability of the following?

a.) an odd number odd numbers – 1, 3, 5 total numbers – 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

b.) a number greater than 5 numbers greater – 6 total numbers – 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

LET’S WORK THESE TOGETHER

3/6 = ½ = 0.5 = 50%

1/6 = 0.166 = 16.6%

LEARNING TOGETHER

1. What is the probability of spinning a number greater than 1?

2. What is the probability that a spinner with five congruent sections numbered 1-5 will stop on an even number?

3. What is the probability of rolling a multiple of 2 with one toss of a number cube?

TRY THESE:21

3 4

LEARNING TOGETHER

REVIEW OF REVIEW OF TOTAL POSSIBLE TOTAL POSSIBLE

OUTCOMESOUTCOMES

TREE DIAGRAM – TOTAL POSSIBLE OUTCOMES

Make a tree diagram to represent the following situation:

I have 3 different colored marbles in a bucket (red, yellow, and blue) and a number cube (dice). If I draw

out one marble from the bucket and roll the dice once, what are all the possible outcomes?

Red

Yellow

Blue

123456123456

123456

How many total possible outcomes?

PRESENTATION

Make an area model to represent the following situation:

I have 3 different colored marbles in a bucket (red, yellow, and blue) and a number cube (dice). If I draw out one marble from the

bucket and roll the dice once, what are all the possible outcomes?

AREA MODEL – TOTAL POSSIBLE OUTCOMES

1 2 3 4 5 6

Red R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6

Yellow

Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6

Blue B1 B2 B3 B4 B5 B6

PRESENTATION

REVIEW OF HOW REVIEW OF HOW TO CALCULATE TO CALCULATE

PROBABILITY OF PROBABILITY OF COMPOUND COMPOUND

EVENTSEVENTS

“AND” VS. “OR” I have 3 different colored marbles in a bucket

(red, yellow, and blue) and a number cube (dice). If I draw out one marble from the bucket and roll the dice once:

1. What is the probability of drawing a yellow and rolling an even?

2. What is the probability of drawing a yellow or rolling an even?

PRESENTATION

With replacement ~ the object is replaced before the next object is drawn (the total stays the same for both probabilities) Ex. You have a bucket with 10 marbles (5 blue, 3

red and 2 green). What is the probability of drawing a blue, replacing it, and then drawing a green?

Without replacement ~ the object is not replaced before the next object is drawn (the total is different for both probabilities) Ex. You have a bucket with 10 marbles (5 blue, 3

red and 2 green). What is the probability of drawing a blue, setting it aside, and then drawing a green?

“WITH REPLACEMENT” VS. “WITHOUT REPLACEMENT”

PRESENTATION

Adam has a bag containing four yellow gumdrops and one red gumdrop. he will eat one of the gumdrops, and a few minutes later, he will eat a second gumdrop.a) Draw the tree diagram for the experiment.b) What is the probability that Adam will eat a yellow gumdrop first and a green gumdrop second?c) What is the probability that Adam will eat two yellow gumdrops?d) What is the probability that Adam will eat two gumdrops with the same color? e) What is the probability that Adam will eat two gumdrops of different colors?

“WITH REPLACEMENT” VS. “WITHOUT REPLACEMENT”

LEARNING TOGETHER

How long do I have? 45 mins What do I do? By yourself, complete the Unit

5 Common Assessment

ASSESSMENT

ASSESSMENT

ASSESSMENT

ASSESSMENT

ASSESSMENT

ASSESSMENT

ASSESSMENT

WRAP-UP

W- Write homework assignment in planner (Unit 5 Common Assessment due on Tuesday, April 9th)R- Return materials and organize suppliesA-Assess how well you worked in a group or individually

Did I/we maintain operating standards?Did I/we work toward learning goals?Did I/we complete tasks?

P- Praise one another for high quality work: Tickets for a “P” performance overall