STOCK ESTIMATE OF FILIPINOS OVERSEAS

Commission on Filipinos Overseas As of May 24, 2014

PHILIPPINE MIGRATION STATISTICS

“The Philippines has developed a sophisticated set of statistics about its citizens abroad, at least before migrants leave and when migrants are in host countries.” - Institute for Migration and Development, 2008

COMMISSION ON FILIPINOS OVERSEAS

The Commission on Filipinos Overseas is a government agency mandated to promote and uphold the interests of overseas Filipinos and preserve and strengthen ties their ties with the Motherland.

- Batas Pambansa 79

COMMISSION ON FILIPINOS OVERSEAS

Programs and Services

EMIGRANTS’ DATA FROM THE CFO

Statistics on Registered Filipino Emigrants and Filipino Spouses and Other Partners of Foreign Nationals

ADDITIONAL TYPES OF DATA FROM THE CFO

•Statistics on Au Pair participants•Statistics on EVP (Exchange Visitors Program) Participants •Statistics on the ATN Cases handled by the CFO•Information on the amount of donations by overseas Filipinos and organizations

LEGAL BASIS FOR CFO’S STOCK ESTIMATE OF FILIPINOS OVERSEAS

• Legal basis for the computation of stock estimate – Foreign Service Circular No. 08-03 (when CFO was still under DFA)

• “For the purpose of refining the national estimates of the stock of overseas Filipinos, all diplomatic posts are requested to submit their respective estimates on the no. of overseas Filipinos in their respective jurisdictions every semester “

Historical background of CFO’s Stock Estimate

• Since 1995, CFO has been preparing the stock estimate when CFO was still an attached agency of the Department of Foreign Affairs

• CFO has been computing the stock estimate annually for 17 years

Definition of CFO’s STOCK ESTIMATE OF FILIPINOS OVERSEAS

Stock Estimate is the aggregate of all Philippine-born Filipinos residing or working overseas

Sample of STOCK ESTIMATE OF FILIPINOS OVERSEAS

SOURCES OF DATA

• Emigrant registration data from CFO• OFW Deployment Data from POEA• Reports from Philippine Embassies and

Consulates– Census of host country – From the number of passports issued– Reports on inter-marriages– Assistance-to-Nationals cases– Head Count

GENERAL MIGRANT CATEGORIES

• Permanent migrants - Filipino immigrants, legal permanent residents abroad, spouses of foreign nationals, naturalized citizens of their host country or dual citizens.

• Temporary Migrants - land-based and sea-based Filipino workers, intra-company transferees, students, trainees, entrepreneurs, businessmen, traders and others whose stay abroad is six month or more.

• Irregular Migrants - Filipinos who are not properly documented, without valid residence or work permits, or who may be overstaying workers or tourists in a foreign country for six months or more

GENERAL MIGRANT CATEGORIES

Temporary Migrants Temporary Migrants 4.3M 4.3M (45%)(45%)

Permanent MigrantsPermanent Migrants 4.4M 4.4M (47%)(47%)

Irregular MigrantsIrregular Migrants 0.70M 0.70M (8%)(8%)

Total: 9.4 million (as of December 2012 )

GENERAL MIGRANT CATEGORIES

Year Permanent Temporary Irregular Total2001 2,736,528 3,049,622 1,625,936 7,412,0862002 2,807,356 3,167,978 1,607,170 7,582,5042003 2,865,412 3,385,001 1,512,765 7,763,1782004 3,204,326 2,899,620 1,039,191 7,143,1372005 3,407,967 2,943,151 626,389 6,977,5072006 3,568,388 3,093,921 621,713 7,284,0222007 3,693,015 3,413,079 648,169 7,754,2632008 3,907,842 3,626,259 653,609 8,187,7102009 4,056,940 3,864,068 658,370 8,579,3782010 4,423,680 4,324,388 704,916 9,452,984

TOP 10 DESTINATION COUNTRIES

US (33%) Saudi Arabia (16%) Canada (7%)

UAE (7%) Australia (4%) Malaysia (4%) Japan (3%)

UK (2%) Hong Kong (2%) Kuwait (2%)

METHODOLOGY

where:

• Ap is the overseas Filipino population at time P• Bt is the stock of Filipinos abroad as of time T• Ct..p is the total outflow of migrant Filipinos to the

Philippines since time T until time P• Dt..p is the total return flow of migrant Filipinos to

the Philippines since time T until time P

Ap = Bt + Ct..p – Dt..p

METHODOLOGY

Ap = Bt + Ct..p – Dt..p

Country X for 2010 = Permanent (2009 stock + 2010 CFO data) +

Temporary (2009 stock + difference between 2010 and 2001 POEA data) +

Irregular (data from the diplomatic post)

METHODOLOGY

Norway 2010 = Permanent (16,818 + 302) +

Temporary (3513 + 50) + Irregular (0)

COUNTRY PERMANENT TEMPORARY IRREGULAR TOTALNORWAY 17,120 3,563 0 20,683

WHAT ARE THE OTHER AGENCIES THAT GENERATE STOCK ESTIMATE?

CHALLENGES AND ISSUES IN COMPUTING THE STOCK ESTIMATE

1) Lack of comprehensive and accurate data on returning migrants2) The possibility of double counting of migrants3) Difficulty of capturing Filipino migrants who changed status while outside the Philippines or who migrated to another country4) Death of migrants is not factored in, in the statistical formula5) Reliability of base data of stock estimate6) Nonexistence of detailed disaggregated data on stock estimate by sex, age, profession, etc.

CHALLENGES AND ISSUES IN COMPUTING THE STOCK ESTIMATE

7) Not strictly following the statistical formula for all countries due to data limitation 8) Absence of a single internationally accepted legal definition of international migrant and its categories8) Difficulty in harmonizing different migration datasets produced by different agencies due to their individual mandates. DFA has their own version of overseas Filipinos and NSO has their own Survey on Overseas Filipinos

LIMITATIONS/RESERVATIONS RE CURRENT STOCK ESTIMATES

1) Reliability of the base data2) Possible double counting of migrants (esp. temporary migrants)3) No comprehensive data on returning migrants4) Death of migrants not factored in5) Filipinos overseas changing status6) Different methodology of diplomatic posts in computing the stock7) CFO Stock, usually not the same figure with the DFA Stock and the NSO-Survey on overseas Filipinos 8) Stock does not have demographic information on overseas Filipinos (no gender, group age, or type of work disagreggation)9) Using formula vs the actual estimate of the Philippine diplomatic posts

RECOMMENDATIONS

1) Factor in computation, number of death and returning migrants2) Coming up of a more reliable statistical formula3) Systematic computation of stock by diplomatic posts4) Harmonized data on stock from different government agencies5) Approval of proposed operational framework on counting stock

FINAL OVER-ALL RECOMMENDATION

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LAW “PHILIPPINE STATISTICAL ACT” IN 2013 AND THE CREATION OF THE PHILIPPINE STATISTICAL AUTHORITY WITH ITS INTER-AGENCY COMMITTEE INCLUDING COMMITTEE ON MIGRATION, ALL THESE HARMONIZATION AND AGREEMENTS ON DEFINITIONS OF MIGRATION TERMS SHOULD BE ON TOP OF THE AGENDA OF THE ABOVE-MENTIONED COMMITTEE.

Office of the President of the Philippines Commission on Filipinos Overseas

OVERSEAS OVERSEAS FILIPINOSFILIPINOS

OVERSEAS OVERSEAS FILIPINOSFILIPINOS

A. PermanentA. Permanent B. TemporaryB. Temporary

1. ImmigrantsD.14, D.15

1. ImmigrantsD.14, D.15

2. Immigrant Workers

2. Immigrant Workers

3. Dual Citizens 3. Dual Citizens

1. EmploymentD.11, D.12

(excluding dependents)

1. EmploymentD.11, D.12

(excluding dependents)

2. Non-Employment2. Non-Employment

a. OFWs D.11

a. OFWs D.11

a. Personal(Own Expense)a. Personal

(Own Expense)

b. Business(Corporate/

Government Expenses)

b. Business(Corporate/

Government Expenses)1. Education-

Related/TrainingsD.9, D.10

1. Education-Related/Trainings

D.9, D.10

2. Health-Related B.4

2. Health-Related B.4

3. Religion-Related

(e.g., pilgrims)B.4

3. Religion-Related

(e.g., pilgrims)B.4

4. Tourism/Recreation/ExcursionB.3, B.4

4. Tourism/Recreation/ExcursionB.3, B.4

7. Others (e.g.., asylum seekers)

D.16, E.17, D.13

7. Others (e.g.., asylum seekers)

D.16, E.17, D.13

1. Education/Trainings/Conf./Meetings

D.9, D.10

1. Education/Trainings/Conf./Meetings

D.9, D.10

2. Marketing-/Investment-Related

B.5

2. Marketing-/Investment-Related

B.5

3. Official Missions(e.g., bilateral negotiations)

B.5

3. Official Missions(e.g., bilateral negotiations)

B.5

4. Diplomatic/Consular/Military and their

accompanying household C.6, C.7

4. Diplomatic/Consular/Military and their

accompanying household C.6, C.75. Visits to

Friends/RelativesB.4

5. Visits toFriends/Relatives

B.4

Data Partly Available

Data Available

b. Intra-Company Transferees

D.11

b. Intra-Company Transferees

D.11

c. International Civil Servants

D.12

c. International Civil Servants

D.12

Data Not Available

Note: Codes (e.g., B.3) inside the boxes refer to relevant classifications contained under Annex 2 of document entitled “Strategies for Developing Statistics on the International Migration of Workers”

Legend

*

*

*

*The concept of Resident and Non-Resident

OFWs is in line with international standards like the System of National Accounts (SNA) and the Balance of Payment (BOP).

4. Irregulars 4. Irregulars

6. Dependents of OFWs

D.11, D.12

6. Dependents of OFWs

D.11, D.12

Proposed Operational

Framework for Counting Overseas

Filipinos

d. Irregulars d. Irregulars

8. Irregulars

8. Irregulars

5. Irregulars5. Irregulars