s10 288 sii presentation october 2010
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TRANSCRIPT
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1Towards Recovery
Towards Recovery
An Amárach Research PresentationOctober 2010
© Amárach Research
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2Towards Recovery
1. Reality Check
from here to there
2. It‟s Psychological
beyond negativity
3. This Time Is Different
innovation nation
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3Towards Recovery
1. Reality Check
from here to there
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4Towards Recovery
Towards Recovery
Online survey of SII Members
October 2010
(previously February 2010,
& September 2009)
Current experiences in Ireland
& future expectations
165 responses –
all sizes and sectors
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5Towards Recovery
Are We There Yet?
19%
52%
27%
2%
13%
48%
34%
5%
13%
42%38%
7%
Bad and getting worse
Bad but stabilising Bad but showing signs of
improvement
Over the worst and improving strongly
Current Perceptions of the Irish Market
Sept '09 Feb '10 Oct '10
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6Towards Recovery
Hard to Call
32%
38%
30%
34%
27%
39%
Higher than previous year Same as previous year Lower than previous year
Irish Sales Outlook for 2010
2010 Outlook in February 2010 2010 Outlook in October 2010
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7Towards Recovery
Still Hopeful
67%
28%
5%
50%
39%
11%
Higher than previous year Same as previous year Lower than previous year
Irish Sales Outlook for 2011
2011 Outlook in February 2010 2011 Outlook in October 2010
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8Towards Recovery
Driving Sales
30%29%
10%8%
3%
20%
33%32%
10% 10%
4%
11%
32% 32%
11%
3% 4%
18%
Lower Prices Better Value, Same Prices
New Products Volume Discounts
Advertising & Promotion
Other (e.g.: trade shows
etc)
What Sales Approach is Currently Successful?
Sept '09 Feb '10 Oct '10
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9Towards Recovery
Pricing Pressures
5%
15%
21%
36%
24%
Increased Significantly
Increased Slightly
Remained the Same
Fallen Slightly Fallen Significantly
Trend In Your Prices (Over the Past 18 Months)
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10Towards Recovery
Are We There Yet?
5%
11%
21%
29%28%
Already over the worst
By end of 2010 By middle of 2011
By end of 2011 After 2011
When Will The Worst Be Over In Irish Market?
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11Towards Recovery
Staffing Up
24%26%
22% 23%26%
32%34%
27%
32% 31%
All Irish Owned Foreign Owned Mainly Irish Sales Mainly Foreign Sales
Expect To Hire More Sales Staff in the Year Ahead? % Yes
Feb '10 Oct '10
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12Towards Recovery
Future Possibilities
Still a tough, deflationary sales
environment for many
But there is a positive
momentum expected to
continue through next year
Prepared to staff up for growth
Key challenge will be to gain
pricing power again: depends
on consumer psychology...
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13Towards Recovery
2. It‟s Psychological
beyond negativity
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14Towards Recovery
DABDA did it
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15Towards Recovery
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The Emotional Future
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17Towards Recovery Source: CSO, ESRI, Amárach calculations
Unemployment drives confidence ...
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18Towards Recovery
Gaining Confidence
Correlation Confidence
Supermarkets 0.882
Household Durables 0.868
DIY 0.864
Furniture 0.857
ALL RETAIL 0.844
Pharmacies 0.844
Newsagents 0.822
Bars 0.788
Clothing & Footwear 0.739
Motor Trade 0.728
Electrical Goods 0.720
Department Stores 0.659
Petrol Stations 0.632
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19Towards Recovery
Over the Worst
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20Towards Recovery
Weakening Trend
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21Towards Recovery
Back to DABDA
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22Towards Recovery
Who do you trust?
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23Towards Recovery
Price, Price, Price
Choice of Supermarket:
No. 1: Convenience (61%)
No. 2: Price (31%)
No. 3: Quality (21%)
Choice of Supermarket:
No. 1: Price (70%)
No. 2: Convenience (55%)
No. 3: Quality (12%)
Take advantage of special offers and coupons:
2007: 30% 2010: 53%
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24Towards Recovery
The Big Switch
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25Towards Recovery
The Price Trap
“Price is what you pay, value is what you get”.
Warren Buffett
Price is „additive‟ – higher/lower: one dimensional
Value is „multiplicative‟ – many dimensions
30% of purchase influences are „rational‟.
70% of purchase influences are „emotional‟.
In the absence of Trust then
Price becomes the focus...
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26Towards Recovery
The Prize
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27Towards Recovery
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Towards Recovery
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29Towards Recovery
New insights from Evolutionary Psychology point to a greater importance for parenting and
the family in life satisfaction than assumed in late 20th century
„Old Maslow‟
„New Maslow‟
Forget Maslow
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30Towards Recovery
In the Mood
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Towards Recovery
3. Innovation 2.0
this time is different
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32Towards Recovery
“The fundamental drivers of growth are
stronger than they have been at any
point in human history. These include
the increasing number of highly
educated and capable people in the
world, the breathtaking speed of
technological breakthroughs,
globalization, the inclusion of „the next
billion‟ into the world economy, and
relative political stability.”
Hans-Paul Buerkner
Boston Consulting Group
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33Towards Recovery
New Influences
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34Towards Recovery
This Time Is Different
Innovation 1.0 Innovation 2.0
Ready, Aim, Fire Fire, Ready, Aim
New Is Better Better Is Better
Nice To Have Necessary To Have
Features & Benefits Feelings & Experiences
Be Cool Be Human
Bells & Whistles Keep It Simple
Personal Autonomy Family Integrity
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Towards Recovery
We need a new story: one that explains how Irish businesses will deliver growth and success in the years ahead.
This time is different: even if economy is going „backwards‟, demography & technology are moving forward.
Loyalty: you can‟t afford to take it for granted any more.
Get emotional: multiply your value
And remember: all recessions end in recovery – and so will this one.
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36Towards Recovery [email protected]