S11 - 1

Military Threat

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Military Threat

• 2001 – A minor insurrection has occurred in Serbia with small rather ineffectual irregular forces challenging the government. After three months, regular forces have succeeded in crushing this opposition. A group of 30 to 40 managed to escape the cordon surrounding their forces, and fled into remote mountainess terrain just inside the Macedonian border.

• Macedonian forces are aware of their presence.

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Military Threat (cont)

• Belgrade, after 48 hours issues an ultimatum demanding the return of the rebel group from Macedonian territory with a warning that failure to do so will force them to enter Macedonia and forcibly retrieve them. The FRY forces build up continues at a rapid pace inside of their border.

• The rebel group, through their spokesman, request permission to move their 38 members farther from the border. By now, Macedonian forces have them surrounded.

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Military Threat (cont)

• The US and NATO both issue inconsistent warnings to Belgrade not to violate the territorial integrity of Macedonia. In private, diplomatic discussions by the government with US and NATO powers, it is clear that while these countries are sympathetic to Macedonia’s plight, they have not formulated a definitive policy or action plan should Macedonia be invaded.

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Military Threat (cont)

• The rebel group managed to dispatch a representative to Skopje to request political asylum for himself and 38 other members of the rebel group.

• The Belgrade government in pursuit of the rebel group has moved ground forces to the border, and the political leadership has demanded that the opposition rebels be expelled from Macedonian territory immediately.