s16 219 illicit trade presentation
TRANSCRIPT
Illicit Trading
A Presentation Prepared For:
NFRN Ireland
September 2016
GON/SR
S16-219
2
Methodology
Profile of Sample
Main Findings
– Section l - General Policy
– Section ll – Illicit Trade
Summary & Conclusions
Table of Contents
3
A number of questions were placed on the Amárach Research
September omnibus. The omnibus survey is a syndicated survey
whereby clients can include questions within the survey.
A total sample of 1,000 was achieved with quotas set on gender,
age, social class and region to achieve a sample aligned with
national population. Due to the high proliferation of the internet
among the Irish population, the Amárach Research omnibus is
completed fully online.
Interviewing fieldwork dates were September 12th – 16th..
A. Research Methodology
4
B. Sample Profile
49
17
46
28
51
22
54
26
19
2816
1826
Male
Female
Under 25
55+
25-34
35-44
ABC1 F50+
C2DE F50-
% % %
Dublin
Munster
Conn/Ulster
ROL
Sex Social Class Region
%
Age
45-55
(Base: All Irish adults 16+)
Quotas were set to ensure that the sample attained is aligned to the Irish population, any sampling error is
corrected with minor data weighting.
SECTION 1:
General Policy
6
Reimbursing Employers for Jury Duty
(Base: All Respondents 1,000)
Gender
Male
Female
Age
Under 25
25-34
35-44
45-54
55+
70
62
56
50
58
77
84
Region
Dublin
ROL
Munster
Conn/Ulster
Social Class
ABC1
C2DE
59
67
71
66
71
61
%
%
Almost two thirds (66%) of respondents are in favour of the Government introducing a scheme to
reimburse employers for wages paid to staff while undertaking Jury Duty. Males, those in the older age
cohorts of 45 and over and those in the ABC1 social class are most in favour.
Somewhat Supportive
Very Supportive
Neither/Nor
Somewhat Opposed
Very Opposed
Q – Would you support/oppose the Government introducing a scheme to reimburse employers for loss of wages paid to staff who undertake
Jury Duty, as is the case in the UK?
39
27
16
8
55
%
Don’t know
66%
13%
Demographics for supportive
7
25
26
11
16
20
2
Increasing the Price of Unhealthy Products
(Base: All Respondents 1,000)
Demographics for supportive
Gender
Male
Female
Age
Under 25
25-34
35-44
45-54
55+
53
49
48
46
50
53
57
Region
Dublin
ROL
Munster
Conn/Ulster
Social Class
ABC1
C2DE
48
53
53
50
56
47
% %
Half of respondents (51%) are in favour of increasing the price of products that are deemed unhealthy,
while just over one third (36%) are opposed to the idea. Those aged 55 and over and those in the ABC1
social class are most in favour.
Q – Would you support/oppose Government proposals to increase the price of products deemed unhealthy –i.e. sugar tax?
%
Somewhat Supportive
Very Supportive
Neither/Nor
Somewhat Opposed
Very Opposed
Don’t know
51%
36%
8
Widening the Remit of the Office of the
Ombudsman to include Small Businesses
(Base: All Respondents 1,000)
Gender
Male
Female
Age
Under 25
25-34
35-44
45-54
55+
65
49
36
42
50
69
80
Region
Dublin
ROL
Munster
Conn/Ulster
Social Class
ABC1
C2DE
57
59
58
51
62
52
% %
Over half (57%) support the widening of the remit of the office of the Ombudsman to include small
businesses. However, almost one quarter (23%) neither support nor oppose the idea. Males, those aged
45 and above and those in the ABC1 social class are most in favour.
Q – Would you support/oppose the widening of the remit of the office of the Ombudsman to include small businesses?
%
Somewhat Supportive
Very Supportive
Neither/Nor
Somewhat OpposedVery Opposed
28
29
23
52
12Don’t know
Demographics for supportive
57%
7%
9
Small Business Rate Relief Scheme
(Base: All Respondents 1,000)
Gender
Male
Female
Age
Under 25
25-34
35-44
45-54
55+
65
57
50
51
66
65
71
Region
Dublin
ROL
Munster
Conn/Ulster
Social Class
ABC1
C2DE
55
57
68
66
62
60
% %
The majority, 6 in 10 (61%) support the introduction of a ‘Small Business Rate Relief’ scheme. Those living
in the Munster and Connaught/Ulster regions, Males and those aged 35 and above are most in favour
Q – Would you support/oppose the introduction of a ‘Small Business Rate Relief’ scheme, similar to that being used in NI which would see
large out of town retailers paying higher rates to the council as a means of supporting independent retailers in town centres ?
%
Somewhat Supportive
Very Supportive
Neither/Nor
Somewhat Opposed
Very Opposed
31
30
18
11
65Don’t know
Demographics for supportive
61%
17%
10
Minimum Unit Pricing for Alcohol
(Base: All Respondents 1,000)
Gender
Male
Female
Age
Under 25
25-34
35-44
45-54
55+
33
39
37
30
35
36
41
Region
Dublin
ROL
Munster
Conn/Ulster
Social Class
ABC1
C2DE
33
37
42
30
38
34
% %
A greater percentage of respondents oppose the introduction of a minimum unit price for alcohol than
support it (45% vs 36%). Females are more likely than males to support this.
Q – Would you support/oppose the introduction of a minimum unit price for alcohol to prevent large supermarkets from selling large quantities
of alcohol below cost price?
%
Somewhat Supportive
Very Supportive
Neither/Nor
Somewhat Opposed
Very Opposed
18
18
16
18
27
3Don’t know
Demographics for supportive
36%
45%
11
Reduction of Retail Licences and Inspections for
Businesses
(Base: All Respondents 1,000)
Gender
Male
Female
Age
Under 25
25-34
35-44
45-54
55+
45
30
24
32
42
39
46
Region
Dublin
ROL
Munster
Conn/Ulster
Social Class
ABC1
C2DE
36
37
44
31
41
34
% %
Almost 4 in 10 (38%) would support progressing plans to reduce the number of retail licences and
accompanying inspections that businesses are requested to hold. However one third (34%) neither
support nor oppose the idea. Q – Would you support/oppose progressing plans to reduce or amalgamate the number of retail licences and accompanying inspections that
businesses are requested to hold?
%
Somewhat Supportive
Very Supportive
Neither/Nor
Somewhat Opposed
Very Opposed
16
22
34
11
5
12Don’t know
Demographics for supportive
38%
16%
SECTION 2:
Illicit Trade
13
Troubling Aspects of the Black Market in
Cigarettes
(Base: All Respondents 1,000)
Increased criminality was mentioned most often as a troubling aspect of the black market in cigarettes.
This, alongside ease of access to tobacco for minors were the most troubling aspects.
Q – What aspects of the black market in cigarettes do you find most troubling?
22
14
22
8
9
16
8
68
56
53
33
29
28
27
3
Most Troubling Total Mentions
Increased criminality
Funding illegal activities
Ease of access to tobacco for minors
Paramilitary links to illicit tobacco trade
Loss of jobs in the legitimate retail sector
Loss of Government revenue
Undermining of Government health policies
Other – quality of the contents of the
cigarettes and health implications
14
Troubling Aspects of the Black Market in
Cigarettes – Demographics – Total Mentions
(Base: All Respondents 1,000)
Of all the age groups, those under 25 were most likely to find the ease of access to tobacco for minors a
troubling aspect of the black market.
Q – What aspects of the black market in cigarettes do you find most troubling?
TO
TA
L
Gender Age RegionSocial
Class
Ma
le
Fe
ma
le
Un
de
r
25
25
-34
35
-44
45
-54
55
+
Du
b
RO
L
Mu
nste
r
Co
nn
/
Uls
ter
AB
C1
C2D
E
% % % % % % % % % % % % % %
Increased criminality 68 68 69 64 66 68 73 70 66 69 69 70 68 69
Funding illegal activities 56 58 54 53 62 50 58 56 51 58 56 61 57 55
Ease of access to tobacco for
minors53 41 65 65 55 55 52 42 49 53 58 52 48 57
Paramilitary links to illicit
tobacco trade33 39 28 26 26 36 34 43 32 35 33 33 36 31
Loss of jobs in the legitimate
retail sector29 29 30 35 27 29 31 27 32 28 30 28 27 31
Loss of Government revenue 28 35 22 24 28 30 22 34 33 26 26 29 33 24
Undermining of government
health policies 27 26 28 31 30 28 21 24 31 29 23 23 27 26
15
Consequences of the Forthcoming Budget
(Base: All Respondents 1,000)
Respondents feel that increasing the price of cigarettes will most likely increase the amount of cigarettes
carried back home from travels abroad and increase smuggling from abroad. People were less likely to
think it will have a positive impact on reducing the number of people smoking. Q – In relation to the forthcoming budget, please indicate whether you think an increase in the price of cigarettes will cause the
following to happen-
An increase in bringing back more packs from
their travels abroad
An increase in packs smuggled from abroad
People will turn to the black market where they
can access cheaper cigarettes
It will lead to job losses in the legitimate retail
sector
It will reduce the number of people
smoking
12
10
13
35
59
80
80
75
40
22
Don’t know
8
10
12
24
19
Yes, will do of courseNo
16
Consequences of the Forthcoming Budget –
Demographics
(Base: All Respondents 1,000)
Those aged over 55 are most likely to agree that increasing the unit price of cigarettes will lead to an
increase in cigarettes coming from abroad through smuggling or with people returning from holidays.
Q – In relation to the forthcoming budget, please indicate whether you think an increase in the price of cigarettes will cause the following to
happen-
TO
TA
L
Gender Age RegionSocial
Class
Ma
le
Fe
ma
le
Und
er
25
25
-34
35
-44
45
-54
55
+
Dub
RO
L
Mu
nste
r
Co
nn
/
Uls
ter
AB
C1
C2D
E
% % % % % % % % % % % % % %
An increase in bringing back more
packs from their travels abroad80 79 81 78 77 75 83 87 81 79 83 76 84 77
An increase in packs smuggled from
abroad80 80 79 67 76 77 87 88 76 84 81 76 80 79
People will turn to the black market
where they can access cheaper
cigarettes
75 78 72 59 72 76 88 79 73 78 76 73 73 76
It will lead to job losses in the
legitimate retail sector 40 43 38 33 39 33 49 47 40 42 42 37 40 41
It will reduce the number of people
smoking22 25 19 23 27 25 15 19 24 20 22 22 25 19
17
Influence of a Price Increase on Cigarettes and
Black Market Shopping
(Base: All of those who are smokers – 235)
For approximately one quarter (26%) of smokers, the least amount of an increase in price, 10 cent, would
be the tipping point. A small change in price would make these 26% consider moving to the black market.
Q – What scale of increase on the price of cigarettes in the forthcoming budget would be the tipping point to make you seriously consider
looking to source cigarettes from the black market?
26
10
7
4
18
36
10 cent or greater
%
20 cent or greater
30 cent or greater
40 cent or greater
No amount, I will never buy black market cigarettes
50 cent or greater
18
Influence of a Price Increase of Cigarettes and
Black Market Shopping - Demographics
Those aged 55 and over are most likely to state that they would never buy black market cigarettes
regardless of any price increases.
Q – What scale of increase on the price of cigarettes in the forthcoming budget would be the tipping point to make you seriously consider
looking to source cigarettes from the black market?
TO
TA
L
Gender Age RegionSocial
Class
Ma
le
Fe
ma
le
Und
er
25
25
-34
35
-44
45
-54
55
+
Dub
RO
L
Mu
nste
r
Co
nn
/
Uls
ter
AB
C1
C2D
E
% % % % % % % % % % % % % %
10 cent or greater 26 28 23 35 29 22 27 17 30 25 20 30 31 23
20 cent or greater 10 10 10 8 7 11 11 14 9 8 13 11 9 11
30 cent or greater 7 5 8 11 7 6 9 0 8 5 7 6 6 7
40 cent or greater 4 3 6 4 7 4 2 2 7 5 3 0 2 5
50 cent or greater 18 19 16 12 20 26 18 8 18 20 13 19 13 20
No amount, I will never buy black
market cigarettes36 35 36 31 29 31 34 58 29 36 43 34 39 34
(Base: All of those who are smokers – 235)
19
Under 18’s Access to Cigarettes through the
Black Market
(Base: All Respondents 1,000)
Three quarters feel that it is easy for minors to access cigarettes through the black market, with less than
10 % feeling that it is difficult for them to do so.
Q – How easy do you believe it is for minors under the age of 18 to access cigarettes and other tobacco products through the black market?
%
Somewhat Easy
Very Easy
Neither/Nor
Somewhat DifficultVery Difficult
42
33
9
618Don’t know
75%
7%
Demographics for Easy
Gender
Male
Female
Age
Under 25
25-34
35-44
45-54
55+
76
75
78
71
75
73
79
Region
Dublin
ROL
Munster
Conn/Ulster
Social Class
ABC1
C2DE
76
77
74
72
76
75
% %
20
Under 18’s Access to Cigarettes through
Legitimate Retailers
(Base: All Respondents 1,000)
One third (33%) feel that it is difficult for minors to access cigarettes through legitimate retailors. In
contrast to the previous slide where only 7% felt that it is difficult for minors to access cigarettes through
the black market.
Q – How easy do you believe it is for minors under the age of 18 to access cigarettes and other tobacco products through legitimate retailers?
%
16
35
10
24
9
5
51%
33%
Demographics for Easy
Gender
Male
Female
Age
Under 25
25-34
35-44
45-54
55+
50
52
61
49
52
47
48
Region
Dublin
ROL
Munster
Conn/Ulster
Social Class
ABC1
C2DE
49
56
50
48
54
49
% %
Somewhat Easy
Very Easy
Neither/Nor
Somewhat Difficult
Very Difficult
Don’t know
21
51%
49%
Government Policies
(Base: All Respondents 1,000)
2
1
2
1 -The Government has gone too far in its
efforts to reduce tobacco consumption and is
now fuelling the black market trade in
cigarettes through it’s policies of high prices
%
There was a relatively even split between the two options presented to respondents, with a slightly greater
level of agreement that the increase in the price of cigarettes by the Government is increasing black
market trade. Those from the ABC1 social class are more likely to agree that the Government should
continue to raise the price of cigarettes, whereas the opposite is true for those in the C2DE social class.
2 -The Government should continue its
efforts to reduce tobacco consumption
through policies of high prices
1
Gender
Male
Female
Age
Under 25
25-34
35-44
45-54
55+
52
50
45
49
51
58
52
48
50
55
51
49
42
48
Region
Dublin
ROL
Munster
Conn/Ulster
Social Class
ABC1
C2DE
50
47
53
53
43
57
50
53
47
47
57
43
% %
22
Positive Effects on the Black Market Cigarette
Trade – Most Effective
(Base: All Respondents 1,000)
Respondents feel that introducing stronger penalties for those found guilty of committing offences related
to the black market trade in cigarettes would have the most positive effect on the black market trade.
Q – Please rank the following means you believe would have the most positive effect on the black market cigarette trade on the island of
Ireland
Introducing stronger penalties for those found guilty of
offences
Increasing police and customs resources (such as introducing
additional scanners at Irish ports)
Reducing the level of excise duty imposed on cigarettes
Completely banning the sale of tobacco products at markets
and fairs
Criminalising consumers of illicit cigarettes
Avoiding de-branding of tobacco products through plain
packaging or larger health warnings which make it harder for
consumers to tell whether cigarettes are from the black market
42
16
14
12
8
7
17
26
13
19
13
11
16
21
12
18
20
13
%1st Most
effective 2nd 3rd
Total mentions
85
79
70
73
69
65
23
Positive Effects on the Black Market –
Demographics – Most Effective
(Base: All Respondents – 1,000)
Those aged 45 and over are most likely to agree that introducing stronger penalties for those found guilty
of offences will have a positive effect on the black market trade in cigarettes in Ireland.
Q – Please rank the following means you believe would have the most positive effect on the black market cigarette trade the island of Ireland
TO
TA
L
Gender Age RegionSocial
Class
Ma
le
Fe
ma
le
Und
er
25
25
-34
35
-44
45
-54
55
+
Dub
RO
L
Mu
nste
r
Co
nn
/
Uls
ter
AB
C1
C2D
E
% % % % % % % % % % % % % %
Introducing stronger penalties for those found guilty of offences 42 44 41 29 36 44 50 50 40 47 43 38 42 42
Increasing police and customs resources (such as additional scanners at Irish ports)
16 16 17 25 22 9 15 12 18 15 16 17 18 15
Reducing the level of excise duty imposed on cigarettes 14 12 16 13 13 14 14 14 15 12 13 14 11 16
Completely banning the sale of tobacco products at markets and fairs 12 13 12 12 14 14 10 11 13 10 14 13 13 12
Criminalising consumers of illicit cigarettes 8 10 6 10 7 9 8 6 10 9 7 6 9 7
Avoiding de-branding of tobacco products through plain packaging on larger health warnings which make it harder for consumers to tell whether cigarettes are from the black market
7 6 8 10 8 10 3 6 5 7 7 12 7 8
24
Of all the statements where respondents were asked whether they would support or oppose,
respondents were most in favour of the introduction of a Government scheme to reimburse
employers for loss of wages paid to staff undertaking Jury Duty.
While half of respondents (51%) support the introduction of an increase in the price of products
deemed unhealthy, there was high levels of opposition at 36%.
While the majority of respondents (57%) support the widening of the remit of the office of the
Ombudsman to include small businesses, almost one quarter (23%) neither support nor oppose the
idea. Level of support for the idea increases with age.
6 in 10 (61%) respondents support the introduction of a ‘Small Business Rate Relief’ scheme. Those
living outside Leinster are most in favour.
Level of opposition is greater than support for the introduction of a minimum of unit pricing for
alcohol. Females are more in support of this than males.
Almost 4 in 10 (38%) support the reduction of retail licences and inspections that businesses are
requested to hold. However, one third (34%) neither support nor oppose the idea. Munster
residents, Males and those over 55 are most in favour.
The most troubling aspects of the black market trade in cigarettes are the increased criminality and
ease of access to tobacco for minors, while funding illegal activities was also mentioned as one of
the top three most troubling aspects overall.
Summary & Conclusions
25
Respondents are most likely to agree that the implications of increasing the price of cigarettes in the
forthcoming budget will result in an increase in cigarettes coming from abroad either through
smuggling or from people coming back from holidays.
Respondents felt that an increase in price would be more likely to fuel the black market trade than
reduce the amount of people smoking.
One quarter (26%) stated that the smallest increase of 10 cent or greater would make them consider
the black market. Those aged under 25 were most likely to be influenced by an increase of 10 cent.
Three quarters feel that it is easy for under 18’s to access cigarettes through the black market.
Respondents feel that it is more difficult for under 18’s to access cigarettes through legitimate
retailers.
There was a relatively even split in agreement as to whether increases in the price of cigarettes is
fuelling the black market, or whether it is needed to reduce tobacco consumption.
Respondents feel that introducing stronger penalties for those found guilty of offences would be most
effective in reducing black market trade in cigarettes.
Criminalising consumers and de-branding of packaging are seen as the least effective measures on
reducing black market activity.
Summary & Conclusions
