s3.amazonaws.coms3.amazonaws.com/kcmcontent/2015/01.15/kcm-01-15.pdf · nar 12/2014 pending home...
TRANSCRIPT
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EXISTING Home Sales
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NAR 12/2014
EXISTING Home Sales
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90
95
100
105
110
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
100 = Historically Healthy Level
NAR 12/2014
PENDING Home Sales
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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
PENDING Home Sales
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102.7
101.5101.2
105.3
104
104.8
Sep Oct Nov
2013 2014
NAR 12/2014
PENDING Home Sales
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5.4
5.35.33
5.92
5.65.66
NAR Freddie Mac MBA
2014 2015
2014 Home Sales & 2015 Projections (Existing & New Construction in millions)
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HOME PRICES
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13.2%12.9%
12.4%
10.8%
9.3%
8.1%
6.7%
5.6%
4.8%4.5%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
S&P Case Shiller 12/2014
Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGES
Case Shiller
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3.7%3.2%
2015 2016
Home Price Expectation Survey 2014 4Q
Projected Home Appreciation
*Mean Percentage
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4.6
4.95.0
5.2
5.7
5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5
5.3
5.1 5.1
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Months Inventory of
HOMES FOR SALE
NAR 12/2014
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3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4
4.2
4.4
4.6
Freddie Mac 12/2014
Freddie Mac
Actual Rates January 2013 – December 2014
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgages
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4.1
4.3
4.5
4.7
Where Are They
GOING?
2015 Projections
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Where Have They
Been?
2014
Mortgage Rates Freddie Mac 30 Year Fixed Rate
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Quarter Fannie
Mae
Freddie
Mac MBA NAR
Average of all four
2015 1Q 4.0% 4.1% 4.4% 4.2% 4.25%
2015 2Q 4.1% 4.3% 4.6% 4.5% 4.38%
2015 3Q 4.2% 4.5% 5.0% 4.9% 4.65%
2015 4Q 4.3% 4.7% 5.1% 5.4% 4.88%
Mortgage Rate Projections
12/2014
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5.25 $ 2,208 $ 2,154 $ 2,098 $ 2,044 $ 1,988
5.00 $ 2,148 $ 2,094 $ 2,040 $ 1,986 $ 1,932
4.75 $ 2,086 $ 2,034 $ 1,982 $ 1,930 $ 1,878
4.50 $ 2,026 $ 1,976 $ 1,926 $ 1,874 $ 1,824
4.25 $ 1,968 $ 1,919 $ 1,869 $ 1,820 $ 1,771
4.00 $ 1,910 $ 1,862 $ 1,814 $ 1,766 $ 1,719
3.75 $ 1,852 $ 1,806 $ 1,760 $ 1,714 $ 1,667
$ 400,000 $ 390,000 $ 380,000 $ 370,000 $ 360,000
-2.5% -5% -7.5% -10%
RA
TE
Principal and Interest Payments rounded to the nearest dollar amount.
Buyer’s Purchasing Power
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MILLENNIALS
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“By the end of 2015
millennials will become
the largest home-buying
age group…As this
generation matures, they
will become a home-buying
force to be reckoned with."
Dr. Stan Humphries, Zillow Chief Economist
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“Households headed
by millennials will see
significant growth as a
reflection of economic
gains…Next year's
addition of 2.75 million jobs
and increased household
formation will be the two key
factors driving first-time buyer sales.”
Realtor.com
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“Employers have started
hiring…wages may rise
for many, according
to a recent forecast
from the Hay Group,
which predicts the average
salary will rise 5.4% this year.”
Rachel Emma Silverman in the Wall Street Journal
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…according to the First-Time Buyer Mortgage
Share Index by AEI’s International Center on
Housing Risk
% of all buyers were
first time buyers
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“Household
formations in 2014
through September
are already at
their highest rate
since 2005.”
Neil Dutta, Head of Economics at
Renaissance Macro Research
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$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
$550
$600
$650
$700
$750
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Median Asking
RENT since 1988
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“Landlords have
ramped up rents by
the fastest pace in
six years, with
national vacancy
rates the lowest in
two decades.”
Ruth Mantell, Economics Reporter at MarketWatch
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“Another increase
in total rent paid
similar to that
seen this year
isn't out of the
question. In fact,
it's probable."
Zillow Chief Economist Stan Humphries
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30.8% More
Affordable
-19.8% Less
Affordable
More or Less Affordable?
Buy a Home
Rent a Home
…in the third quarter than it was in the pre-bubble years (1985 -1999)
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15.3%17.4%
29.9%
Homebuyers should expect tospend on mortgage
Likely first-time, 23-to-34-year-oldbuyers should expect to pay
Renters should expect to pay
Percentage
of Income…
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38%
62%
Renters Homeowners
Comfortable is defined as having
extra money to go beyond each
payday and spend money on
things they want
Who is More ‘COMFORTABLE’ Financially?
Freddie Mac 12/2014
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“With a 30-year fixed
rate mortgage, you'll
have the certainty and
stability of knowing
what your mortgage payment will
be for the next 30 years – unlike
rents, which will continue to rise
over the next three decades.”
Christina Boyle, SVP at Freddie Mac
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LATINO FAMILIES
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“Demand for housing units
increases as new immigrants
enter the economy and form
households, accelerating the
current housing recovery and
fueling growth in this sector
of the economy.”
Projected annual increase in spending
on residential construction
Impact of Immigration Reform
$68B Bipartisan Policy Center
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4.6
4.95.0
5.2
5.7
5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5
5.3
5.1 5.1
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Months Inventory of
HOMES FOR SALE
NAR 12/2014
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The Second Time
HOMEBUYER
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Date Mortgage Interest Rate* P&I**
Today $300,000 4% $1,432.25
2015 4Q $312,000 5% $1,674.88
*Average Commitment Rate per Freddie Mac **Principal and Interest Payment
$242.63 Difference in Monthly Payment
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Date Mortgage Interest Rate* P&I**
Today $500,000 4% $2,387.08
2015 4Q $520,000 5% $2,791.47
*Average Commitment Rate per Freddie Mac **Principal and Interest Payment
$404.39 Difference in Monthly Payment
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Date Mortgage Interest Rate* P&I**
Today $700,000 4% $3,341.91
2015 4Q $728,000 5% $3,908.06
*Average Commitment Rate per Freddie Mac **Principal and Interest Payment
$566.15 Difference in Monthly Payment
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Date Mortgage Interest Rate* P&I**
Today $1M 4% $4,774.15
2015 4Q $1.04M 5% $5,582.94
*Average Commitment Rate per Freddie Mac **Principal and Interest Payment
$808.79 Difference in Monthly Payment
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July 2013 August September October November December January
2014
February March April May June July August September October
Foot Traffic (indicator of future sales)
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S&P Case Shiller 12/2014
Year-Over-Year
PRICE CHANGES
Case
Shiller
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S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
S&P Case Shiller 12/2014
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4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Months Inventory of
HOMES FOR SALE
NAR 12/2014
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4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Months Inventory of
HOMES FOR SALE
NAR 12/2014
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-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
% -24% -20.8 -16.8 -14% -13% -7.6% -5% -6.2% 1.8% 0.9% 5.0% 1.6% 7.3% 5.3% 3.2% 6.5% 6% 5.5% 5.8% 4.5% 6% 5.2% 5%
Year-over-Year
Inventory Levels
NAR 12/2014
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Jan2012
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan2013
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan2014
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Percentage of
Distressed Property
Sales
35%
9%
14%
January 2012 - Today
NAR 12/2014
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KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
Slide Slide Title Link
5-9, 43 Existing & Pending Home
Sales, Foot Traffic http://www.realtor.org
10 2014 vs. 2015 Home Sales
Projections
http://www.realtor.org
http://www.freddimac.org
http://www.mba.org
12, 44, 45 Case Shiller Year-over-
Year http://us.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller
13 Projected Home
Appreciation https://www.pulsenomics.com/Q3_2014_HPE_Survey.php
14, 36, 46,
47, 48, 49
Months Inventory, Year-
over-Year Inventory, %
Distressed Property Sales
http://www.realtor.org
16 30-Year Fixed Rate http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
17 Mortgage Rate Projections
– Freddie Mac http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/ehforecast.html
18 Mortgage Rate Projections
http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_121814.pdf
http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/pdf/December_2014_public_outlook.pdfhttp://www.mortgagebank
ers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/90111_.pdf
http://www.realtor.org
22 Stan Humphries Quote http://zillow.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=28775&item=137108
23 Realtor.com Quote http://news.move.com/2014-12-04-Realtor-com-2015-Housing-Forecast-Stage-Set-for-the-Return-Of-First-Time-
Home-Buyers
Resources
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KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
Slide Slide Title Link
24 Wall Street Journal Quote http://www.wsj.com/articles/new-year-new-job-read-this-first-1420157881
25 Housing Risk Study http://www.housingrisk.org/aeis-international-center-on-housing-risk-announces-first-release-of-first-time-buyer-
mortgage-share-index-fbmsi/#more-1403
26 Neil Dutta Quote http://www.mhmarketingsalesmanagement.com/blogs/daily-business-news/tag/renaissance-macro-research/
27 Median Asking Rent Graph http://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/histtabs.html
28 MarketWatch Quote http://www.marketwatch.com/story/rents-rise-at-hottest-pace-in-six-years-2014-12-17?sf6404505=1
29 Stan Humphries Quote http://zillow.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=28775&item=137119
30, 31 More or Less Affordable,
% of Income http://zillow.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=28775&item=137110
32 Who is more comfortable? http://www.freddiemac.com/multifamily/pdf/mf_renter_profile.pdf
33 Christina Boyle Quote http://www.freddiemac.com/news/blog/christina_boyle/20140428_homeownership_myths.html
35 Impact of Immigration
Reform http://bipartisanpolicy.org/library/report/immigration-reform-implications-growth-budgets-and-housing
Resources
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“Create content that
is meant to help
your customers,
not sell to them.” Marketo
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LATINO FAMILIES
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Successful lead-generation campaigns exchange
useful, relevant and compelling content
for permission to contact a qualified individual.
Content Marketing Institute
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BUYERS’ GUIDE
Winter Edition
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SELLERS’ GUIDE
Winter Edition
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Rainmaker Content
Copyblogger
1. Solves real audience problems
2. Reflects the character, passion, &
knowledge of an authoritative person
3. Finds a fresh approach to the topic
4. Is interesting and easy to read
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