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MDGs after 2015:

Francesca PerucciUnited Nations Statistics Division

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What have we learnt?

Address the missing elements of the MD

Add the economic productive component Better defined goals and targets at the

global and national level

Clear, well-defined measurementframework to localize the MDGs

Addressing inequality issues

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Some of the current criticisms of the MDGs:

The goals are too ambitious

The MDG framework overlooks inequality and specific populationgroups

Global targets versus national targets?

The targets under Goal 8 are not numerical and do not set any specificdeadlines

There is too much focus on health

Key elements of the MD are omitted (eg human rights) Some targets are poorly addressed (such as womens empowerment)

Some targets are poorly specified (slums)

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Are the indicators appropriate?

Vandemoorteles view: The misinterpretation ofthe MDGs as one-size-fits-all targets has set the

bar for sub-Saharan African countriesunrealistically high. Should different targets beset at the national level?

Too many indicators? Too few?

Monitoring requirements are a big burden tocountries.

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Monitoring progress: the adoption of

the MD was a defining moment for

the development community2000: Member States adopted the Millennium Declaration The road map describes how these commitments would be fulfilled

The United Nations Secretariat convenes the Inter-Agency and ExpertGroup on MDG Indicators (IAEG) to identify indicators to trackprogress

The resulting set of goals, targets and indicators constitutes theMillennium Development Goal framework.

2005: At the World Summit, world leaders committed to four

new targets, in addition to those contained in theMillennium Declaration

The IAEG identifies the additional indicators needed tomonitor progress on the new targets

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The MDGs as agreed framework

for development In the Follow-up to the outcome of the

Millennium Summit, the General Assemblyrequested the Secretary-General to report yearlyon progress achieved towards implementing theDeclaration.

This was done based on theMDG framework

8 Goals

18 Targets

48 Indicators

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Mapping the MDGs

Foster pro-poor policy reforms, resources re-allocation

Improve monitoring of indicators

8 goals few in numberOutput-based Renew support for ODA Centered on people easy to communicate

18 targets, 40+ indicators Time-bound and numerical targets for accountability

Will trigger action and foster alliances

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MDGs: the achievements

The momentum generated by the MDGs

Increased awareness of development issuesIncreased efforts by many donors to provide the

necessary development assistance

Successful targeted interventions (malaria,HIV/AIDS, measles)

Increased attention to the need forstrengthening statistical capacity

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MDGs: the shortcomings

Criticism of the MDGs

Perceived by many developing countries primarily as a top-downinitiative

Not all goals have clear numerical targets No consensus on how progress towards the targets should be measured

One-size fits all is inappropriate for countries at different levels ofdevelopment

Only a subset of development issues emerging from global conferences isincluded

Some elements of the MD are not included

Some goals are too ambitious

Little or no consideration given to their implications or feasibility at theregional or country level

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What baseline year?

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MDGs Monitoring and Reporting

* Global reporting:UN-DESA

UN/DESA, based oninputs prepared by the

various designated

agencies in the UN system

and the World Bank, IMF

and OECD, coordinates

the preparation of the

global report

* National reporting:UNCT

MDG National Reportsare prepared by UN

Country Teams

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* Global reporting:UN-DESA

The global report is used asa basis for the Secretary-Generals report to theGeneral Assembly

Objective provide a global

assessment of progress towardsthe achievement of MDGs

Target audience memberstates

* National reporting: UNCTMDG National Reports are

prepared by UN Country

TeamsObjective raise awareness:advocate; focus nationaldevelopment debate on specific

priorities; build national capacity

for monitoring/reporting onMDGs

Target audience nationalpolicy makers, civil society,development partners

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Selection of the indicators for MDG Monitoring

Consultations among the United Nations Secretariat, IMF,the World Bank and OECD led to the selection of more than

40 indicators for the monitoring of progress towards MDGs

Two subsequent inter-agency expert group meetings were

held to further revise the millennium development goalindicators in March and April 2002

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Selection of the indicators for MDG Monitoring

The two inter-agency expert group meetings on theMillennium Indicators:

reviewed the MDG Indicators framework

discussed data availability, conceptual issues, data accuracyand measurement problem at national level

discussed geographical coverage and consistency over timefor the calculation/estimation of regional and global figuresfor the two benchmark years (1990 and 2000)

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Selection of the indicators for MDG

Monitoring

The two inter-agency expert group meetings on the

Millennium Indicators produced the revised list of 48

Millennium Indicators. The list was adopted by allpartner agencies and the UN Secretariat for the

global monitoring towards the achievement of MDGs

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Millennium IndicatorsWhy is the Millennium Indicator Set an

important achievement?

It proved effective in building up consensus amongagencies and collaboration in data compilation

It represents a first significant step in the search forharmonization and rationalization of developmentindicators within the UN system

It is a goal/target-oriented list and so provides policy-

oriented statistics It provides a framework for coordination among and

within international organizations and betweeninternational organizations and countries, for statisticalcapacity-building

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Millennium IndicatorsFrom the Millennium Indicator Set to

country-relevant indicators

There is concern on:

The selection of the indicators and their relevance

to the targets

How to make MDG indicators relevant to and

applicable at the country levelThe availability and quality of data necessary for

the MDG indicators

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Millennium IndicatorsThe selection of the indicators and their relevance

to the targets: a few examples

Goal 3. Promotegender equality andempower women

Target 4. Eliminate

gender disparity inprimary and secondaryeducation, preferablyby 2005, andto all levels ofeducation no laterthan 2015

Ind. 11 - Share of women in wage employment

in the non-agricultural sector (ILO)

The target does not address the wholespectrum of the goal.

The indicator does not have a clear link withthe target.

The indicator is not completely adequate toaddress gender equality in the labourmarket. Other variables would need to be

considered, such as working conditions,the levels of remuneration and wagedifferentials, labour legislation and socialbenefits, full-time versus part-time jobs,the status in employment, the importanceof the informal sector/home-based work in

the country, etc.

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Millennium IndicatorsThe selection of the indicators and their relevance

to the targets: a few examples

Goal 8. Develop aglobal partnershipfor development

Target 16.

In cooperation withdeveloping countries,develop andimplement strategiesfor decent andproductive work foryouth

Ind. 45 - Unemployment rate of 15-to-24-

year-olds, each sex and total (ILO)

Unemployment is but one dimension of

the employment problems faced byyoung people. A large number ofyoung women and men in manycountries are underemployed eitherworking fewer hours than they wouldlike to, or working long hours for littleeconomic gain. Also, economicstagnation and declining opportunitiesin the formal sector have resulted in ashift to work in the informal sector orin unpaid house-based work.

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Millennium Indicators

The process of selection of MDG Indicators

had the main purpose of reaching a global

consensus on ways of measuring andassessing progress in achieving

development goals

MDG Indicators for national reportingshould be tailored to countries needs and

circumstances

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Millennium Indicators

MDG Indicators for national reporting shouldbe developed taking into account:

Gender perspectives Differences among socio-economic and/or

ethnic groups

Specific countrys circumstances in allspheres (such as health, education and theeconomy)

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Millennium IndicatorsHow to make MDG indicators relevant to and applicable at

the country level: a few examples

Goal 1. Eradicateextreme povertyand hunger

Target 1. Halve,

between 1990 and2015, the proportionof people whoseincome is less thanone dollar a day

Ind. 1- Proportion of population below$1(PPP) per day (World Bank)

At the country level it may be more relevantto consider the different dimensions of

poverty, including not only market-basedconsumption, but also the public

provision of goods and services, access toresources, aspects related to asatisfactory life, levels of education,health and mortality, etc.

This conceptualization may be moreinstrumental in understanding theconditions of social and economicdeprivation and its gender dimension and

be more informative for policy makers.

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Goal 1. Eradicateextreme povertyand hunger

Target 2. Halve,

between 1990 and2015, the proportionof people who sufferfrom hunger

Ind. 4 - Prevalence of underweight

children under five years of age

(UNICEF - WHO)

There are countries where child malnutritionconcerns only specific population

groups/geographical areas. The global

indicator therefore has no relevance

unless appropriately disaggregated. Other

specific aspects of child nutrition and

well-being may be considered.

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Goal 6. CombatHIV/AIDS, malariaand other diseases

Target 8. Have halted by

2015 and begun toreverse the incidenceof malaria and othermajor diseases

Ind. 21 - Prevalence and death rates

associated with malaria (WHO)

Ind. 22 - Proportion of population in

malaria risk areas using effectivemalaria prevention and treatment

measures (UNICEF - WHO)

Malaria represents a major disease when

considering its toll on the worlds

population or the population of specificregions and sub-regions. In most

countries, however, other aspects of

human health should be considered.

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Millennium IndicatorsThe availability and quality of data necessary

for the MDG indicators

Problems with data for MDG Indicators are related to:

Lack of international standards

Failure in adopting international standards at the nationallevel

Measurement problems

National programmes not fully developed in specific

statistical areasNew statistical areas, with recent methodological

development

Data availability for MDG Indicators: an

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Data availability for MDG Indicators: an

example

Goal 1 - Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

Number of countries with data for the MDG Indicators

43 43

61

70

20 0 1 0

51

0

20

40

60

80

100

Proportion of

population below

$1 (PPP) per day

(WB)

Poverty gap ratio

(WB)

Share of poorest

quintile in national

consumption (WB)

Prevalence of

underw eight

children under 5

(UNICEF)

Proportion of

undernourished

population (FAO)

Indicators

%ofcountrieswith

data

1 year only

2 or more

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Strengthening statistical capacity

The national reporting mechanismsMDGcountry reportscan help identify areas whereefforts to strengthen statistical capacity are most

needed

One important outcome of the preparation of theMDG National Reports will be improved nationalcapacity for national monitoring of MDGs

This will help raise awareness on the needto produce policy-oriented statistics,that is, statistics to address specific goals andtargets

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Conclusions

Keeping the global and national monitoringclose together will help

Identify and correct differences andinconsistencies in statistics and indicators as

presented at country level and in the globalreport/database

Incorporate inputs from countries in the globalpicture

Identify areas for improvement in statistics andchannel resources and interventions of

development partners towards them

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Millennium Indicators Database

millenniumindicators.un.org

United Nations Statistics Division

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In close collaboration with UnitedNations agencies and funds, theWorld Bank, IMF, and OECD, UNSDmaintains the database containingthe series related to the selectedindicators, as well as other

background series intended tosupplement the basic 48 Millenniumindicators for more in-depth analysis.

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The figures presented in the database arefrom international series compiled by thevarious agencies.

The availability of data necessary tocalculate the indicators depends on theavailability and quality of data in countries

When country data are not available or are

affected by serious quality problemsinternational agencies provide adjusteddata or estimates

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Coverage

1 year

only2 or more

years

GOAL 1 - Eradicate extreme poverty and

hunger

Proportion of population below $1 (PPP) per day(WB) 82 0

Poverty gap ratio (WB) 82 0

Share of poorest quintile in national consumption(WB) 116 1

Prevalence of underweight children under 5(UNICEF) 133 0

Proportion of undernourished population (FAO) 3 97

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Coverage

1 year

only2 or more

years

GOAL 2 - Achieve universal

primary education

Net enrolment ratio in primaryeducation (UNESCO) 33 118

Prop. pupils starting grade 1 whoreach grade 5 (UNESCO) 18 87

Literacy rates of 15-24 years old

(UNESCO) 0 136

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Coverage

1 year

only2 or more

years

GOAL 3 - Promote gender equality and

empower women

Girls to boys ratio, primary level enrolment(UNESCO) 11 200

Girls to boys ratio, secondary levelenrolment (UNESCO) 16 192

Girls to boys ratio, tertiary level enrolment(UNESCO) 23 151

Ratio of female over male literacy rates,

aged 15-24 (UNESCO) 0 136Share of women in wage employment/non-agriculture (ILO) 0 40

Women in parliamentary seats, per cent(IPU) 6 174

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Coverage

1 year

only2 or more

years

GOAL 4 - Reduce child mortality

Children under five mortality rate per1,000 live births (UNICEF) 2 191

Infant mortality rate (0-1 year) per1,000 live births (UNICEF) 2 191

Children 1 year old immunizedagainst measles % (UNICEF) 4 183

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Coverage

1 year

only2 or more

years

GOAL 5 - Improve maternal health

Maternal mortality ratio per 100,000live births (WHO) 183 0

Births attended by skilled health

personnel, per cent (UNICEF) 157 0

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Coverage

1 year only 2 or moreyearsGOAL 6 - Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria

and other diseasesHIV prevalence among pregnant women(UNAIDS) 104 0Condom use rate of the contraceptiveprevalence rate data being compiled

AIDS orphans, cumulative (UNAIDS) 73 0

Malaria notified cases per 100,000population (WHO) 109 0Malaria death rate per 100,000, all ages(WHO) 191 0

% pop.

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Coverage

1 year 2 or moreonly years

GOAL 7 - Ensure environmental sustainabilityForested land area as percentage of land area (FAOestimates) 0 198Ratio of protected areas to surface (UNSD calculatedfrom UNEP) 198 0Energy use (Kg oil equivalent) per $1000 (PPP) GDP

(WB) 0 121Carbon dioxide emissions (CO2), per capita(UNFCCC-CDIAC) 4 213Ozone-depleting CFCs consumption (UNEP-OzoneSecretariat) 0 151

Proportion of population using solid fuels (WHO) Data being compiled

% pop. with access to improved water sources,urban (UNICEF) 76 86% pop. with access to improved water sources, rural(UNICEF) 77 84% urban pop. with access to improved sanitation(UNICEF) 70 87Proportion of households with access to securetenure (Habitat) n.a n.a

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The database also contains the globaland regional figures that have been

used in the preparation of theSecretary-Generals report:Implementation of the United Nations

Millennium Declaration, A/57/270

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In order to help focus analysis andassessment of progress at the

country level, the Millenniumindicators and background dataseries are also organized andpresented by country in Millennium

country profiles

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Metadata are also an importantcomponent of the database. At thisstage, the information includesdefinitions and sources for each ofthe indicators presented.

More inputs from specialized

agencies, on methodologies andrelated problems, will be included inthe near future

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