sa demographics discussion paper august 2010

7/29/2019 SA Demographics Discussion Paper August 2010

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City of Cape Town Demographics Scenario Discussion Paper Updated 27th

August 2010Strategy and PlanningStrategic Information and GIS

1

City of Cape Town

DISCUSSION PAPER

DEMOGRAPHICS SCENARIO

August 2010

Disclaimer/Caveat:

PLEASE NOTE THE STATUS OF THE DOCUMENT:

This document is an internal discussion document and has been prepared as a background document andinformant to a number of strategies and processes currently underway in the City of Cape Town. Theseinclude a Strategic Framework for a City Development Strategy, the draft Spatial Development Frameworkand others.

The document has not been formally approved by Council or any of its political structures.

Should there be an expert who would like to refine or improve it, the City would welcome such submissionsor comments.

These can be sent to:Carol WrightManager: Strategic InformationStrategy and Planning [email protected]
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]


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City of Cape Town

DISCUSSION PAPER

27th

August 2010

DEMOGRAPHICS SCENARIO

1. Introduction

Information on Cape Towns population and how the citys demographic profile may change in thefuture is an important yet highly challenging trend to establish and understand.

Demographics concern human populations - their sizes, compositions, distributions, densities,growth, and other characteristics, as well as the causes and consequences of changes in thesefactors. Demography is the basis of all planning activities and developmental processes, and hasimportant implications for policymakers in both the public and private sectors (Institute for Futures

Research (IFR), 2009).

Reliable demographic analysis depends on good and current data. This has been and continues tobe one of the major challenges for Cities in South Africa. Detailed and comprehensive city leveldata is only available via the national census processes which have defined timeframes, with thelast census being 2001 and the next planned for 2011 (data expected to be available in 2013).

In the absence of complete, recent population data for Cape Town, the approach used for thisdiscussion paper in the preparation time and data sources available, is to present detailed nationalpopulation projection data and trends produced by the Institute for Futures Research (Haldenwang,2010; IFR, 2009; 2010;) as a context and informant for a section on Cape Towns population andpopulation projections.

Current and available Cape Town population and trend information, although limited, is thenreported drawing on the Citys reports (2008, 2009, 2010) using Statistics South Africa (STATSSA), data, including the trends analysis completed for the City by Dorrington (2000, 2005).Additional supporting information is drawn from recent population reports produced by theProvincial Government of the Western Cape (2009) and the South African Cities Network (SACN,2006).

The discussion paper concludes with high-level implications of the demographics information andan indication of possible actions in the short term to address the Citys demographics informationneeds.

Note related to the use of demographic data and projections:Dorrington (2005) and other demographers warn users of demographic projections that projectionsare not predictions but rather vehicles forbetter understanding the way the population may changein future. This warning is particularly relevant to projections of regional populations within SouthAfrica today where the needed city-level information on fertility, mortality and migration and theprevalence and future patterns of HIV and AIDS (taking into account possible interventions) is mostchallenging and usually not available or comprehensive.


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2. Demographic Trends for South Africa 1985 - 2030

The Institute for Futures Research recently produced new population projections for South Africacovering the period 1985 - 2040 by using the Spectrum Policy Modelling System of The FuturesGroup International. (Spectrum is a useful computer programme to determine the demographicimpact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic since it consists of two models, viz, DemProj, a demographicmodel that produces population projections in the absence of AIDS, and AIM, an AIDS impact

model that projects the impact of the epidemic. Data about the base-year population by age, sexand population group were derived from the ASSA2003 model of the Actuarial Society of SouthAfrica. (IFR, 2010). STATS SA also uses Spectrum).

2.1 Summary of Overall Trends - South Africa(Source: Data and text - Haldenwang, 2010; IFR, 2010)

2.1.1 Key Population Size Trends

The total SA population will continue to grow in absolute numbers over the next 20 years, butsignificantly slower than over the past 25 years and significantly slower than in the absence ofAIDS

Over the past 20 years South Africas population has grown rapidly: 1990 - 36.1 million, 2010 -49.1 million (ie, by 13 million) as a result of high fertility and in-migration rates. However,although the population is projected to continue growing in absolute numbers over the next 20years, reaching 52.2m by 2030, the growth will be significantly slower than over the past twodecades (refer figure below)

(Source: Haldenwang, Institute for Futures Research, 2010)

In the early 2030s, the population is projected to start declining in absolute size, mainly as aresult of significantly lower fertility rates and the impact of the AIDS epidemic. In the absence ofAIDS, the South African population would currently (2010) total 53,8m instead of 49.1m.

The general trend of increasing numbers and proportions of black Africans versus decliningnumbers and proportions of whites will continue.

KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng will remain the most populous provinces in South Africa, followedby Limpopo, the Eastern and the Western Cape.


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2.1.2. Population growth rate trends

The annual population growth rate of the total SA population is declining, but will remainpositive until 2030

Although the South African population is projected to continue to increase in size, at least until2030, the annual population growth rate has been declining since the early 1990s, and isprojected to continue declining, starting to turn negative by around 2030 (refer figure below). Inthe absence of HIV and AIDS, the population growth rate is projected to be significantly higher,but nevertheless also declining. AIDS thus slows down population growth in South Africa.


All four population groups will experience declining population growth rates, with whites alreadyexperiencing negative growth

The declining population growth rates reflect declining fertility rates and the impact of HIV andAIDS, especially in the case of black Africans. Whites have been experiencing negativepopulation growth rates since the 1990s as a result of extremely low fertility rates (rates wellbelow the replacement level of 2.1) and relatively high emigration rates.

All provinces will experience declining population growth rates, with Limpopo and the WesternCape currently growing the fastest and the Free State already experiencing negative growth

2.1.3 Fertility trends

Total fertility rates (TFRs) have, and will continue to decline over the next 20 years

TFR is the number of children a woman is expected to have during her reproductive years. TheTFRs have been declining among all four population groups in South Africa since the 1950s,

reflecting the impact of education, urbanisation, rising income levels and contraceptive use. It isexpected that TFRs will continue to decline over the next three decades, although at asignificantly slower rate.


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Whites and Asians experience already below replacement level TFRs. Blacks will continue tohave the highest TFR, although declining and projected to reach replacement level after 2030,around 2040 (refer figure below)

(Source: Haldenwang,Institute for Futures Research, 2010)

All provinces are projected to experience declining TFRs, with the highest TFRs currently inLimpopo and the Eastern Cape and the lowest TFRs in Gauteng and Western Cape.

2.1.4 Mortality trends

Declining trend in mortality rates of the 1950-1990 period has been reversed and mortalityrates will continue to increase among black Africans and coloureds due to AIDS, and due topopulation ageing among whites and Asians (refer to figure below)

(Source: Haldenwang,Institute for Futures Research, 2010)


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As in the rest of the world, mortality has been declining, reflecting improved living and healthconditions, as well as better access to water sources and sanitation facilities. However, sincethe 1990s, crude death rates (CDRs) the number of deaths per 1 000 of the population - havebeen increasing among all four population groups. In the case of black Africans (and to a lesserdegree also coloureds) this is as a result of the direct impact of the AIDS epidemic whichcauses an excess of deaths, and in the case of whites and Asians due to the impact ofpopulation ageing.

All provinces will experience increasing mortality

AIDS has reversed the declining trend in child mortality experienced since the 1950s,especially among black Africans during 1990-2000

Between now and 2030, child mortality rates are expected to decline in all provinces

2.1.5 Life expectancy trends

Worldwide life expectancy at birth (the average number of years a new-born infant would live ifprevailing patterns of mortality at the time of birth were to stay throughout the childs life) hasbeen increasing due to declining death rates, reflecting success in combating mortality andmorbidity.

However, in South Africa this trend has been reversed since the 1990s, especially among blackAfricans and coloureds as a direct result of AIDS. In the case of black Africans, the epidemic isprojected to result in 24.7 years of life lost, on average, by 2030. In the absence of AIDS, lifeexpectancy at birth among black Africans is projected to reach 74.2 years by 2030, instead of51.5 years. Whites and Asians will continue to have the highest life expectancy

From 2020 onwards, life expectancy amongst all population groups and provinces is expected

to slowly resume its increasing trend of the 1950 -1995 period

Although the difference in life expectancy between males and females is declining due tosevere impact of AIDS on women, females will continue to experience higher life expectancythan males (refer to figure below)



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2.1.6 Age structure/ageing trends

Although still in the early stages, population ageing in SA is a demographic reality

The age structure of a population is extremely important for planning purposes. In demographicterms, the South African population has moved from being a very young population (with 40%children


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2. 2 Key Demographic Trends South Africa 2010 2030

Continued population growth until 2030

Declining growth rates

Declining fertility rates

Increasing mortality rates

Slowly increasing life expectancy at birthPopulation ageing

Changing age structures

Increasing median ages

Rising dependency ratios

The HIV and AIDS epidemic is projected to continue to have a significant impact on thedemography of South Africa

Key demographic indicators for the South African population for the period 2010 - 2040 aresummarised in the table below.(Note: the figures may differ from those quoted above due to the differing outer projection year ie 2040. The projection model was run

using 1985-2040 as the study period.)

Key demographic indicators for the South African population, 2010 - 2040

Indicator 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Population size(m)

50 725 52 015 52 971 53 565 53 809 53 741 53 288

Racialcomposition% Asian/ 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3

% Black African 79.5 79.7 79.9 80.2 80.5 80.8 81.0

% Coloured 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.4

% White 9.0 8.7 8.4 8.1 7.8 7.6 7.3

Sex ratio(males/100females)

98.0 99.4 100.6 101.6 102.4 103.3 104.0

Annual populationgrowth rate (%)

0.60 0.39 0.29 0.17 0.07 -0.03 -0.15

Total fertility rate 2.38 2.31 2.23 2.15 2.15 2.07 1.98

Crude mortalityrate

15.1 16.1 16.4 16.7 17.1 17.4 17.7

Life expectancyat birth (years):Total

50.8 50.4 50.8 51.4 51.8 52.4 52.8

Male 51.4 51.5 51.9 52.4 53.0 53.5 54.1

Female 50.2 49.2 49.7 50.2 50.7 51.1 51.6

Age composition:%


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3. Key Demographic Trends - Cape Town 2030

The City monitors the estimated population of Cape Town between the census years using datafrom various surveys conducted by Statistics South Africa. These include Labour Force Surveys,General Household Surveys and the 2007 Community Survey. Whilst these surveys do providesome data, they have limitations as they are based on samples and also do not include the full

range of demographic data needed for the Citys planning. The absence of city level data continuesto be a challenge.

3.1 Cape Town Estimated Population and composition 1996 2007

In line with South Africas population growth trends, the Cape Towns population has alsoincreased over the past decades, with the population estimates from the 2007 Community Surveyindicating that the citys population had grown by 20, 9% since 2001 and 36.4 % since 1996. In2007 the citys population was estimated to be close to 3.5 m people. (City of Cape Town, 2008)

The table below also indicates that the number of Black Africans showed the largest increase(89.4%) since 1996 followed by 64.6% for Asians. The number of Whites increased by 24.3% andColoureds by 24.1%.

(Source: Community Survey 2007, STATS SA)

The current estimated population figures (2009) for Cape Town by ethic group indicates that the47% of the population are Coloureds, 38% Black Africans, 15% White and less than 1% Asian.These are percentages are showing similar trends in distributions to the 2007 data.

YearBlack

African Coloured Asian White Total

June2009

Number 1,395,670 1,720,293 14,656 541,407 3,672,026

38.01% 46.85% 0.40% 14.74% 100.00%

(Source: Labour Force Survey Q2 2009(a), STATS SA)

The increase in Cape Towns population over a period of time and the more rapid growth in since2001 can also be noted from the graph below, which also provides a break down of population bygender. The continuing trend from 1996 is that there are more females than males (ProvincialGovernment of the Western Cape (PGWC), 2009).


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Cape Town metro population

0

300000

600000

900000

1200000

1500000

1800000

2100000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Female Male

(Source: PGWC, 2009)

3.2 Age Distribution

The age distribution of the Cape Town population indicates that the percentage of the population inthe potentially economically active group (aged 15 to 64 years) has increased since 1996 whilethat of the youth (aged 0 to 14 years) has decreased. The percentage of aged (65 years and older)remained constant from 1996 to 2001 and then increased in 2007.


3.3 Migration

Migration is an important demographic process in shaping the age structure and distribution of thepopulation.

The 2007 Community Survey indicates that a total of 190,256 people moved into Cape Town afterOctober 2001 from all provinces other than the Western Cape as well as from outside of SouthAfrica. This includes 30,964 who were born after October 2001 and whose place of birth was notthe Western Cape. From the data available it is not possible to determine the number of peoplewho moved into Cape Town from other areas of the Western Cape. The largest percentage came

from the Eastern Cape (44.9%), followed by those who came from outside of South Africa (19.5%)and from Gauteng (17.3%) (refer table below)


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The number of people moving into Cape Town from other provinces in South Africa declined fromthe period October 1996/September 2001 to October 2001/February 2007. During both periods thelargest number came from the Eastern Cape followed by Gauteng. The number of people in theperiod October 2001/February 2007 excludes those born after October 2001 and those who inmigrated from other Countries or regions.


The 2009 STATS SA mid year estimates indicate that for the period 20062011, it is estimated thatGauteng and Western Cape are estimated to experience a net inflow of migrants of approximately364 400 and 94 600 respectively (STATS SA, 2009, 2010)


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3.4 Cape Town Population Projections 1996-2031

In 1999 and 2005, the City commissioned projections of the population of Cape Town to assist withits planning processes. Factors taken into account when determining the projected population werebirth rate, death rate, migration and the incidence of HIV.

As migration was the most uncertain variable three options were calculated based on high,

medium and low migration rates. The 1999 projection was based on the 1996 population censusand the 2005 update was based on the 2001 population census but only projected the populationto 2021.

The figure below presents population trends information from 1996 to 2031 including currentinformation and the 1999 and 2005 high and medium population growth projections.

Figure: Cape Town Population Trends and Projections 1996 -2031

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200

3,400

3,600

3,800

4,000

4,200

4,400

4,600

4,800

5,000

5,200

5,400

Jun-96

Jun-97

Jun-98

Jun-99

Jun-00

Jun-01

Jun-02

Jun-03

Jun-04

Jun-05

Jun-06

Jun-07

Jun-08

Jun-09

Jun-10

Jun-11

Jun-12

Jun-13

Jun-14

Jun-15

Jun-16

Jun-17

Jun-18

Jun-19

Jun-20

Jun-21

Jun-22

Jun-23

Jun-24

Jun-25

Jun-26

Jun-27

Jun-28

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Jun-30

Jun-31

Jun-32

T

housands

Dorri ngton 1 999 - High Dorring to n 1999 - Medium Dorri ngton 2 005 - High Dorring to n 2005 - Medium Popu la ti on

(Sources: Dorrington 200, 2005; STATS SA 1996, 2001. 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 )

The current data from Statistics South Africa (2009; 2010) shows that the population is currentlyincreasing faster that that projected in the 2005 projection study and the estimated population isalready higher than that projected at the 2005 high migration rate. The current populationestimates are in line with the medium migration projection from the 1999 projections.

Based on the information available, the population projection done in 1999 gives the best estimateof the population of Cape Town to 2031.

The table below from the Dorrington 2000 report is a comparison of projections of the Cape Townpopulation predicated on High, Medium and Low assumptions of the input variables of fertility,

mortality, migration and the prevalence patterns as well as the future spread of HIV/AIDS.


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It is interesting to note that the total population of the Cape Town is expected to grow by almost60% over the 35 year projection period.

The medium projection is highlighted in bold as the possible best estimate of the populationestimates for Cape Town for the period 2011-2031

High/medium/low projections: Cape Town population (Dorrington, 1999)

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

HIGH 3 186 938 3 646 156 4 008 402 4 292 446 4 538 385 4 769 669 4 976 987

MEDIUM 3 154 238 3 547 055 3 820 847 3 997 718 4 119 504 4 208 444 4 255 857

LOW 3 121 532 3 447 946 3 633 286 3 702 990 3 700 595 3 647 071 3 534 371(Dorrington, 2000)

The table below reflects estimated growth of the different population groups within Cape Town in

terms of Medium case assumptions.

By the end of 2031, the Black population is expected to just exceed the Coloured population. Eachof these groups will constitute approximately 40% of the total Cape Town population.

Table: Medium projections: Cape Town Population Groups (Dorrington, 1999)

PopulationGroup

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

AsianNum 47,252 57,742 67,388 75,546 82,334 88,383 93,541

% 1.50% 1.63% 1.76% 1.89% 2.00% 2.10% 2.20%

BlackNum 984,452 1,225,695 1,387,606 1,496,267 1,581,397 1,653,399 1,703,802

% 31.21% 34.56% 36.32% 37.43% 38.39% 39.29% 40.03%

Coloured Num 1,454,346 1,572,766 1,655,042 1,697,148 1,711,661 1,712,078 1,698,536% 46.11% 44.34% 43.32% 42.45% 41.55% 40.68% 39.91%

WhiteNum 668,188 690,851 710,811 728,756 744,113 754,584 759,977

% 21.18% 19.48% 18.60% 18.23% 18.06% 17.93% 17.86%

TOTALNum 3,154,238 3,547,054 3,820,847 3,997,717 4,119,505 4,208,444 4,255,856

% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

(Dorrington, 2000)

3.4.1 High-level review of use of Dorrington Population Projections 2000 or 2005.

As noted above, based on the trends information available and in the absence of any updatedprojections or detailed demographic analysis, the Dorrington 1999 population projection (2000report) gives the best estimate of the population of Cape Town to 2031.

The explanation for this suggestion is based on the following:

Currently, the projection in the Dorrington 2000 report is the only projection the City has that goesto 2031. (The 2005 report only projected estimated population to 2021)

A review of the base population, fertility, mortality and migration assumptions used in theDorrington 2000 and 2005 models, indicates that the main assumption variations between the twomodels are the use of an updated the ASSA2003 model for HIV mortality in 2005 and different

migration assumptions, in 2000, the 1991-1996 rate was used and in 2005 the 1996 2001 rate.


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The observation that in 2008, the population estimate for Cape Town was already closest to thehigh migration projection from Dorrington 2005 and with a seemingly steep up-ward trend (refer tograph above), suggests that the population of Cape Town is increasing at a higher rate than thatprojected in the 2005 Dorrington model.

The reasons for this increase will be varied, complex and interacting, however a main reason couldbe the different migration patterns experienced since 2001 namely in-migration from a range ofdestinations international, continental, regional and national.

In addition, based on the estimated population for Cape Town from the Statistics South Africa data(General Household Surveys and Labour Force Surveys in particular) as well as the populationestimate from the Citys Urban Growth Monitoring System, the estimated population is at presentclosest to the medium migration projection from Dorrington 2000.

This supports the suggestion that without access to any updated or refined population projectionsfor Cape Town, the medium Dorrington 1999 population is used as the possible best estimate ofthe population estimates for Cape Town for the period 2011-2031.

The above suggestion has also been used in the chapter on Drivers of Urban Growth in the draftSpatial Development Framework, which is in line with the corporate approach of encouraging theuse of a consistent set of demographic figures by City Departments as inputs to strategic andoperational planning processes.

3. 5 Cape Towns population trends in relation to other large Citys in South Africa.

Using the 1996 Census, 2001 Census and 2007 Community Survey data population growth ratesfor the three largest South African urban and economic centres Johannesburg, Cape Town andeThekweni (Durban), are as follows:

Municipality Growth1996-2001

1996-2007

2001-2007

Cape Town 12.84% 36.44% 20.91%

Johannesburg 22.32% 47.46% 20.55%

eThekweni 12.32% 26.06% 12.23%

MunicipalityPopulation

1996 2001 2007

Cape Town 2,563,095 2,892,243 3,497,097

Johannesburg 2,636,770 3,225,309 3,888,180

eThekweni 2,751,193 3,090,122 3,468,086(Sources: STATS SA, 1996. 2001, 2007)

Over the period since the last Census in 2001, Cape Town has experienced a similar growth toJohannesburg during the period 2001-2007, with a higher comparative growth rate of 20.91% anda significantly higher growth in relation to eThekweni (Durban). Johannesburg remains the city withthe highest population.

This trend is supported by the South African Cities , State of Cities Report 2006 which highlightsthat the populations of the nine major cities in South Africa have grown considerably since the mid-1990s at an average annual rate of 1,92%.

The report also highlights that Cape Towns population growth rate hasbeen consistently higherthan the total population growth ratefor the country. This is partially confirmed by the inter-


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provincial migration analyses presented by Statistics SA (2009), which indicates that Gauteng,Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal had a positive net migration rate during the period20012006.

The Statistics SA estimates suggest that the major metropolitan areas in these three provinceshave experienced a positive net in migration. The slowdown in city and national growth rates canprobably be ascribed to reduced fertility levels over the last decade and the impact of recent Aidsdeaths. The explanation for this counter-intuitive finding lies in relative urban growth outside thenine major cities. Secondary cities and other towns experienced relatively high population growth

compared to the major cities and rural areas, confirming a trend identified in the 2004 State of theCities Report. (SACN State of Cities report 2006 (pages 3-2 3-5)

3.6 Key Demographic Trends Cape Town Overall Trends 2010 - 2030

The overall trend is that Cape Towns population has grown and will continue to growsignificantly each year, both from natural births (although at a slower rate, with fertilitylevels declining) as well as in-migration.

Average household sizes have been slowly decreasing from 3.92 in 1996 to 3.72 in 2001,with the current average of 3.55 (General Household Survey, 2008), likely to continue todecline into the future.

One of the largest unknown variables is the nature and extent of migration, both internaland trans-national.

Whilst current migration data is very difficult to access, migration researchers agree that thevarious types of migration flows as a broad trend and driver are likely to remain andpossibly increase in Southern Africa into the future. According to the IFR (2009), theprimary flows of international migrants are and will continue to be from less developed tomore developed countries and between less developed countries. Africa will be a largesource of migrants resulting in a continued brain drain.

Cape Town will continue to experience a lot of internal and external migration

The number of refugees and displaced persons is likely to increase possibly adding toCape Towns in migration into the future.

HIV and AIDS also influence the growth of population and recent trends indicate a lowermortality rate than originally predicted.

The female population exceeds and will continue to exceed the male population

Although still in the early stages, population ageing in South Africa is a demographic reality

4. Initial possible implications for City Planning

The future population although ageing, will have increasing proportions of persons ofworking age the so-called window of opportunity, which should be taken into account infuture strategies.

There needs to be substantial investments in health and education, and a stable andeffective government to support the stimulation of economic growth and achieve thebenefits of demographic dividends ie where a relatively large share of the population is

in work and boosting income and savings - producing more than they are consuming


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There will be a need for skills development and retention strategies to support andencourage the economically active population and the older population to play an optimalrole in Cape Towns economic development.

There will be a need to simultaneously address the needs of a young, vulnerablepopulation, including orphans and vulnerable children and an aging population

Multiple social structures and different population groups will have different needs and

services

A focus on improved child and maternal health would have multiple benefits.

A growing population will place pressure on:- land requirements- housing- health services- freshwater resources- scarce natural resources and energy requirements- food security

- bio-habitats- greenhouse emissionswhich will require particular attention and planning (IFR, 2009)

There will be a slowdown in meeting the primary target of the Millennium DevelopmentGoals (MDG), viz, to reduce the proportion of populations living in poverty and inhumaneconditions by 2015.

5. ConclusionThe discussion paper suggests complex and dynamic population and demographic trends for CapeTown into the future.

Information derived from the next Census in 2011 will be critical as it will assist with providing abetter understanding of the way the population in Cape Town is changing, including fertility,mortality, migration and HIV and AIDS patterns.

However, as the Census 2011 data will only be available in 2013, there is an urgent need fordetailed and updated demographic data for Cape Town. Initial discussions have been held with thePGWC Department of Social Development to explore a possible joint project to update Cape Townprojections. PGWC has the capacity for demographic modelling.

The key positives around this collaborative work are that PGWC uses a similar approach to theCity with regard to demographic data i.e. as far as possible using official data from STATS SA

and other official sources and that resources would be shared, there would be little financial cost tothe City and skills would be mutually developed. Another option is to commission a specialistorganisation or individual to assist with the update (e.g. the IFR, Dorrington and others).

Prepared by:Strategy and Planning DirectorateStrategic Development Information and GISStrategic Information Branch

Contact Person:

Carol WrightEmail: [email protected]


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References:

1. City of Cape Town, 2008: Demographic and Socio-economic Trends for Cape Town 1996-2007, Author K Small

2. Haldenwang, B, 2010: Key Demographic Trends for South Africa to 2030. Institute for FuturesResearch.

3. Dorrington, R. E. 2000: Projection of the Population of the Cape Metropolitan Area 1996-20314. Dorrington, R. E. 2005 Projection of the Population of the City of Cape Town 2001 2021

5. Institute for Futures Research 2009: Business Futures A Roux (ed)6. Institute for Futures Research 2010: Key Demographic Trends for South Africa to 2040.

Strategy Insights, Social Compiled by B Haldenwang, Vol 15 No 2 June7. Provincial Government of the Western Cape (PGWC) (2009): Population Projections in the

district municipalities of the Western Cape Province, 1996 2016 Compiled by N ZinyakatiraDirectorate Research and Population Development, Department of Social Development

8. South African Cities Network 2006: State of Cities Report9. Statistics South Africa (STATS SA) 1996 and 2001: Census 1996; Census 200110. STATS SA 2007: Community Survey11. STATS SA 2008: General Household Survey12. STATS SA 2009(a): Labour Force Survey Quarter 213. STATS SA 2009: Statistical Release P0302 Mid Year Population Estimates June 200914. STATS SA 2010: Statistical Release P0302 Mid Year Population Estimates June 2010

sa demographics discussion paper august 2010

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