EXPLAINING THE BEHAVIOUR OF ROMANIAN HOUSEHOLD ELECTRICITY CONSUMERS ON A CHANGING MARKET

Abstract

The overall trend of developing a liberalized energy sector in the EU member states means that countries such as Romania needed to implement significant reforms in order to open up the industry to private investors and allow customers the freedom to choose their supplier. Documenting these changes is necessary in order to understand the current market context and its implications for electricity end users. Our aim is to assess the evolution of the Romanian energy sector over the last 15 years and to evaluate and explain the behaviour of household customers in the context of the liberalized electricity markets. The approach used in constructing the study was desk research. In order to meet the research objectives, we generate two sets of hypotheses to explain the low incidence of electricity supplier switching observed among Romanian consumers. We will seek to test these hypotheses as part of future research on the topic.

Key words: electricity industry, wholesale and retail market, household consumers, liberalization

JEL classification: M31, Q41

1. Introduction

The overall trend of developing a liberalized energy sector in the EU member states means that countries such as Romania, in which the entire electricity value chain was controlled by a state owned monopoly, needed to implement significant reforms in order to open up the industry to private investors and allow customers the freedom to choose their supplier. The documentation of these changes is necessary in order to understand the current market context and its implications for electricity end users.

Energy marketing is still a fresh field of study in Romania, given the fact that that very few retail customers seem to have an active behaviour on the market. However, public awareness of liberalization is likely to increase as a result of both planned information campaigns and the rising price pressure resulting from the elimination of regulated tariffs and the implementation of the renewable energy support mechanism. This will push both household and non-household consumers to take up a more active role on the current liberalized markets and will create the opportunity for marketers to develop new strategies as well as communication and promotional campaigns.

Providing overall assessments and forecasts regarding the energy sector has generally been a prerogative of large consultancies and other companies specialized in the analysis of the energy industry due to limited data availability and the complex nature of the research problem. If we also consider the fact that the Romanian energy sector has been going through an extensive reform over the last 15 years, it is understandable why research papers regarding its evolution and structure are scarce. Some of the most relevant work has focused on the liberalization of the electricity market and the privatization of certain state owned energy companies (Haar et al., 2011; Popovici, 2011). Atanasiu et al. (2008) have also provided assessments of the residential electricity consumption patterns in the context of Romania’s accession to the EU, while Bianco et al. (2010) have proposed methods for estimating and forecasting the electricity consumption of non-residential consumers in

Romania. Other research is focused on other issues such as renewable energy development (Patlitzianas et al., 2011).

The current dynamics of the industry mean that any analysis that looks at legislation, regulations and privatizations becomes outdated in a relatively short period of time. The fast pace of the reforms coupled with the creation of a liberalized electricity market for both household and non-household consumers creates an opportunity for further study, especially in the field of marketing and strategy. We believe that academic research should strive to bring significant contributions to understanding the implications of the development of the Romanian energy sector.

The aim of the current paper is to briefly assess the evolution of the Romanian energy sector over the last two decades, looking at the companies that have been active within the industry, some of the mergers, reorganizations, privatizations and liquidations which led to the current market structure as well as the evolution of the legislative framework that supported these changes. The paper also aims to provide an assessment of the freedom that the recent changes in legislation and industry structure are allowing electricity consumers and to explain the behaviour of household customers, given the new market context.

2. Method and objectives

The approach used in constructing the current study was desk research. First, we assessed the evolution of the legislative framework and the industry structure in the Romanian energy sector by reviewing various reports, laws and governmental decisions. Next, we used data from several reports of the National Authority for Energy Regulation (ANRE) to analyse the Romanian electricity markets and gauge the behaviour of household consumers. Finally, we performed a review of academic literature in the field of energy marketing in order to outline a series of hypotheses to explain the observed behaviour of the household customers.

The research has pursued the following objectives:1. Assess the evolution of the Romanian energy sector over the last 15 years, focusing on the main changes in legislation and industry structure.2. Assess and explain the behaviour of household customers in the context of the liberalized electricity markets.

The objectives listed above serve in guiding the research to fill some of the gaps observed during the preliminary review of academic literature concerned with the Romanian energy sector. The main contribution of this paper will be in the field of energy marketing, a research topic which we expect will become more popular as the liberalization and deregulation of electricity tariffs will begin to impact the behaviour of household customers.

3. The Romanian energy sector

The recent history of the Romanian energy sector starts with the reforms implemented during the transition to a market economy in the 1990s. Its complex nature arises from the existence of a historical monopoly which was dissolved through an ample reform process which continues to this date. Thus, in order to understand the role that household consumers play, it is imperative to provide an assessment of both the evolution and the current structure of the Romanian energy sector.

3.1. The value chain of the electricity industry

In order to gain a full understanding of the electricity industry, any assessment must not be limited to the electricity generation side, but should take into consideration the entire industry value chain. This consists of four main stages: generation (or production), transmis-sion, distribution and supply (see figure 1).

Figure no. 1 – The value chain of the electricity industry

Production refers to the use of power plants or generation units to convert various forms of energy (e.g. chemical energy in the case of fossil fuels, kinetic or solar in the case of some renewables etc.) into electricity. The structure of the mix of the various technolo-gies used for power generation within a country or a region (also called a “generation mix”) creates sustainability and security issues which have become the focus of multiple studies (Angelis-Dimakis et al., 2012; Evans et al., 2010; Máca et al., 2012). However, the current paper will not focus solely on this component, but will be assessing the full value chain of the Romanian electricity industry.

Transmission and distribution are two similar components. They differ primarily with regard to the voltage of the electricity network that they encompass. In Romania, transmis-sion covers electrical power lines with a nominal tension above 110 kV, while distribution covers those at or below this level (ANRE, 2012b). The two activities refer exclusively to the transportation of electricity and do not include its sale to the consumers. That is the pur-pose of the final component of the electricity value chain.

The supply of electricity is where the transactions with the end users take place. Cur-rently, each distribution company active in Romania also has a sister entity which acts as a supplier for consumers or other market players. However, the final two components of the value chain function separately, as will be seen in the following sections.

The strong relationship that exists between a country’s economic development and the demand for electricity at the national level is well known among many energy professionals and researchers (Breeze, 2005, 6). If this demand is to be satisfied, the continuous development of the entire value chain is necessary. In order for such a complex and strategically significant industry to function in a way that benefits both the economy and the society as a whole, the governing authority should provide a clear definition of the types of agents which may function within the sector and of the interactions that they may be engaged in.

3.2. Legislative framework

The energy legislation currently in effect in Romania is based on the principles and laws upon which all EU energy regulations are built. In order to understand how the in-dustry evolved to its current structure the paper will briefly discuss the most significant his -torical changes in Romanian energy legislation: liberalization and deregulation.

The liberalization process began between the years 1998 and 2000 with the adoption of several laws and governmental decisions that focused on three principal areas (ANRE, 2013d):

Breaking up the state run monopoly over the electricity sector and replacing it with sev -eral smaller companies, which are grouped based on the main components of the in-dustry’s value chain (generation, transmission, distribution and supply); some of these companies were later partially or completely privatized

Creating a legal framework that defines the principles and rules that allow various agents within the sector to sell and purchase electricity

Establishing a system and a set of rules that allow consumers to freely choose the com-pany that supplies them with electricity

Since June 2007, all Romanian end users are able to opt for the supplier of their choice based on price plans, energy mix or any other specific preference. The electricity market is split into two branches (wholesale and retail) and both are supervised by the subsidiaries of the state run transmission and system operator Transelectrica SA and are regulated by ANRE.

A more recent development in Romanian energy policy is the “deregulation” or elimin-ation of regulated electricity tariffs. Until recently, any retail consumers who had not switched suppliers would be sold electricity at a fixed tariff established by ANRE. Starting with September 2012 for companies and with July 2013 for households, this regulated price will be gradually phased out and replaced with a new tariff, which is calculated based on the average price at which suppliers acquire electricity on the wholesale market, to which a series of standard costs are added, plus a 2.5% margin over the acquisition price (ANRE, 2012d).

There are several purposes for deregulating sales prices in the Romanian energy sector, which reflect a series of advantages both for consumers and suppliers. End users will be-come more aware of the competitive market. They will also be able to assess the perform-ance of their electricity supplier with regard to prices and services and then compare it with that of other companies in the market. The sellers will also benefit from the deregulation process through a reduction of their financial risk, since tariffs will be calculated based on actual electricity acquisition prices, following the cost structure of the retailers. Finally, the gradual phase-in of competitive tariffs is meant to protect costumers from sudden price vari-ations which could arise from differences between regulated and competitive tariffs (ANRE, 2013b).

More recently, Romania has also implemented a renewable energy support scheme based on a tradable green certificate system. This regulation mostly affects the structure of the generation mix and has a limited impact on how the market functions. However, since the cost of the green certificates is included in the end users’ electricity bill, it does have a direct and increasingly significant impact on the retail market prices.

3.3. Market agents

The brief outline of the legislative framework provided in the section above will facil-itate a better understanding of the manner in which the Romanian electricity sector evolved starting from the industry wide monopoly of RENEL (Regia Autonomă de Electricitate) and continuing with several reorganizations, consolidations and privatizations which led to the structure seen today.

The starting point for this analysis was the “Milestones in the development of the Ro-manian electricity market” summary, included in the monthly electricity market monitoring reports of ANRE (ANRE, 2013d). Next, the laws and governmental decisions (generally noted as HG, as seen in figure 2) mentioned in these reports as well as other relevant legal

acts were analysed in order to generate a detailed image regarding the evolution of the mar-ket. The results of this research are illustrated in figure 2.

Sources: ANRE (2013c); Romanian Government (1998, 2000, 2001, 2002a, 2002b, 2002c)Figure no. 2 – The evolution of the Romanian electricity industry since 1998

Starting with the year 1998, the monopoly company RENEL, which covered all four components of the electricity value chain, was broken up into several entities. First, the dis-tribution and supply company Electrica SA was created, along with three large generation and transmission companies: Nuclearelectrica, RAAN and CONEL – the latter was broken up in 2000 into Hirdoelectrica and Termoelectrica. Next, the company Transelectrica was formed, which holds the role of single national Transmission and System Operator (TSO) and also acts as a supervisor and facilitator of wholesale energy transactions, similar to Spain’s Red Electrica (Red Eléctrica de España, 2013)

In 2001, Electrica SA was separated into eight distribution and supply subsidiaries, split according to Romania’s geographical regions. However, EU norms require that supply and distribution roles be separated, which led to a further separation of these companies based on the two services. Out of the eight original distribution companies, five were par-tially or fully privatized, while the other three are currently in a mixed private-public owner-ship (Electrica SA, 2012).

In 2002, several state companies took ownership of various assets of Termoelectrica SA. Out of these, Electrocentrale Bucharest became the owner of a large proportion of the combined heat and power plants (CET), which were transferred later in the same year to the municipalities where the units were situated (e.g. Ploieşti, Iaşi, Braşov etc.).

After several other restructurings, liquidations, privatizations, consolidations and changes in legislation, the generation and supply components have seen significant changes in structure. Hidroelectrica, Nuclearelectrica, Termoelectrica (a small portion of the former Termoelectrica SA), RAAN and part of the CETs are continuing their generation activity as state owned companies. However, there are several new entrants on the market, such as renewable energy generators, various oil and gas companies as well as some privatized entities.

With regard to supply, ANRE classifies market agents into three categories: default suppliers, exclusively wholesale suppliers and suppliers active on both markets (wholesale and retail). This component of the energy value chain encompasses a large number of mostly private companies. Investor interest for this type of activity can be explained by the relatively small initial investment, the less strict market entry regulations, the interest shown by large industrial end users for wholesale transactions, but also by the potential for obtain -ing large profits through the purchase and resale of electricity (taking the form of speculat-ive transactions).

The transmission and distribution components have seen far fewer changes since 2002. Thus, Transelectrica remains the single Romanian TSO and the eight former subsidiaries of Electrica SA (partially privatized) remain the only electricity distribution companies in Romania.

3.4. The structure and typology of the Romanian electricity markets

The sale of electricity in Romania takes place on two markets: wholesale and retail. The wholesale market is where commercial relationships develop among generators, suppli-ers, balancing parties, the TSO, as well as other intermediaries which are also classified as suppliers. The main purpose of transactions which take place on this market is resale. How-ever, there are some exceptions such as the acquisition of electricity to be used in genera-tion, transmission, distribution and supply processes, as well as for the consumption of large scale industrial end users.

Up until the first half of 2012, electricity could be sold either through one of the cent-ralized markets maintained by SC OPCOM SA – a subsidiary of Transelectrica SA, which has exclusive rights over the administration of the wholesale electricity market – or through transactions established directly between generators and suppliers (see figure 3).

Currently, in order to increase the level of transparency and to eliminate potential dis-criminatory transactions, all commercial relationships are established exclusively through the centralized markets administered by OPCOM: next day market (PZU), centralized bilat-eral contracts market, balancing market, intraday market and the newly established central-ized market with continuous double negotiation of bilateral electricity contracts (ANRE, 2013d).

Adapted from: ANRE (2013d, 4)Figure no. 3 – The structure of the Romanian wholesale electricity market up to 2012

The retail market is a system through which end users purchase electricity from suppli-ers with the exclusive purpose of consumption. Three types of suppliers are defined within the retail market: default, last option and standard. Default suppliers have appeared through the liberalization of the Romanian electricity market. Each of these is assigned to a geo-graphical area of the country and is required to not refuse service to customers with a con -tracted power of less than 100 kVA, which are located within their area of coverage if the customer has not yet entered the free market. There are five default suppliers, each being a sister entity for one of the eight distribution companies (see figure 2). Last option suppliers are designated by the regulating authority and are required to sell electricity to end users un-der certain exceptional circumstances (e.g.: if the previous supplier has become bankrupt) (ANRE, 2012b).

Adapted from: ANRE (2013d, 26)Figure no. 4 – The structure of the Romanian retail electricity market

As seen in figure 4, default suppliers can sell electricity both to “regulated” consumers and to competitively supplied consumers. It is also worth mentioning that, theoretically speaking, any supplier (default or standard) may be designated as a last option supplier so long as they meet the legal requirements.

Out of the two electricity markets, the wholesale market has the largest volume both in physical and monetary terms. However, due to the lower average price per unit of electricity

specific to wholesale transactions, the retail market is proportionally larger in monetary value than it is in physical terms (see figure 5).

Calculations and estimations based on: ANRE (2013c)Figure no. 5 – The distribution of 2012 electricity sales in Romania among the two markets

Finally, it may be surprising that the volume of electricity sold just on the retail market in 2012 was nearly twice as large as the internal consumption of electricity in Romania. One reason for this is likely to be the speculative acquisition and re-sale of electricity.

4. Household consumer behaviour in the context of the Romanian electricity markets

4.1. The behaviour of household consumers on the retail market

Household consumers (HC) are entities that acquire electricity for domestic consump-tion. If the energy is used for professional, commercial or industrial purposes, the end user is classified as non-household (Non-HC).

HCs are active exclusively on the retail market. At the end of 2012, Romania had ap-proximately 8,437,000 HCs and 555,000 Non-HCs. However, in terms of consumption, HCs represent only 26% of the retail market (a percentage which has remained relatively constant over the last few years) (ANRE, 2013a). Thus, from the perspective of a supplier, HCs have a much lower individual value compared to Non-HCs, given that, for example, 54.6% of the physical demand on the retail market originates from just 0.1% of actors (all of them are Non-HCs and are purchasing electricity at competitively established prices) (see figure 6).

Adapted from: ANRE (2013a)Figure no. 6 – Numerical and physical proportion of HCs on the retail electricity market in 2012

The most recent national statistics (referring to the year 2012) show that all HCs are active exclusively on the regulated component of the retail market, in spite of the fact that the liberalization of Romania’s electricity market in 2007 allows consumers to switch sup-pliers through the direct negotiation of a contract. We expect that the primary motives for this situation are financial risk, lack of information and low attractiveness of HCs.

Firstly, if HCs would opt out of the regulated tariff offered through the default sup-plier, their electricity bill would be calculated at the market price, which, up to the start of 2012, was higher than the regulated tariff (Voiculescu, 2012). After the progressive deregu-lation of electricity tariffs, the average cost for 1 MWh for a HC would be approximately 400 RON starting with January 2013 (ANRE, 2012c), while the average price on the com-petitive component of the retail market was approximately 300 RON in October 2012 (ANRE, 2013d). If such differences become a trend, it is possible that some consumers will be more interested in switching suppliers in the near future.

In the short term, the elimination of regulated tariffs will generate more volatility in the price paid by the end users. However, in the long term, this process should bring the final cost of electricity down to the lowest level considered feasible by suppliers and by the other players in the wholesale market (Ivan et al., 2013). Experience has shown that a significant and sudden rise in energy prices for household consumers can generate civil unrest and ample protests (Euronews, 2013). Thus, it will be imperative to insure a high level of trans-parency with regard to how tariffs are calculated and to provide ample information cam-paigns for consumers regarding the deregulation and liberalization processes.

Secondly, another significant obstacle for supplier switching is the lack of information regarding the procedures, advantages and disadvantages of opting for a new retailer. Very few journalistic enquiries and official documents exist on the topic. It is occasionally men-tioned in the mainstream media that the electricity market is now liberalized, sometimes fol-lowed by a very brief description of what this means, however, very few journalists are will-ing to tackle the subject more comprehensively, possibly due to the complexity of the elec-tricity sector or due to a low level of public interest in the subject.

However, it is highly likely that mass-media interest for the topic will increase over the following years, given the forecasted rise in household electricity bills (AGERPRES, 2013). This increase in journalistic interest should coincide with the information campaigns regard-

ing the liberalization and deregulation of the retail market, to which both ANRE and the electricity suppliers have committed themselves over the following years (ANRE, 2012a).

Finally, the current relevance of the HC within the electricity market remains low. Some suppliers cannot even consider accepting switching requests from HCs due to their own inability to regularly read all the meters and report the consumption to the distributor. Thus, the main options for HCs in the near future are likely to be the five existing default suppliers which, under these circumstances, would become direct competitors. However, it is probable that the focus of energy companies will remain on Non-HCs, given that they have an average consumption of more than 40 times that of a HC (see figure 6).

Over the next few years, the price pressure of electricity is expected to grow (due to deregulation and the renewable energy support scheme). This means that electricity bills will have an increased impact on HC budgets, thus pushing them to become proactive and seek supply schemes which are more adequate for their needs. A mass migration of HCs from one supplier to another would have a significant effect on the profit margins of the two companies, so it is expected that a more active competitive environment will develop on the retail market in the future.

4.2. Explaining household consumer behaviour on the liberalized market

The liberalization of the energy market is considered to be an opportunity for con-sumers to gain access to better prices through end user mobility and competition among sup-pliers. However, the data presented in figure 6 shows that Romanian household consumers had not opted to change their electricity provider by the end of 2012. The situation observed in Romania is not unique. There are examples which show that customers tend to have a low rate of supplier switching even in EU countries which have implemented liberalization one decade prior to Romania (Ek et al., 2008; Gamble et al., 2009).

In order to explain the observed behaviour of Romanian household consumers, we generated a series of hypotheses, which we will seek to test as part of future research on the topic. The resulting hypotheses can be classified into two categories: general (relevant to several EU countries) and specific (relevant to the particular context of the Romanian en-ergy sector).

The “general” hypotheses have resulted from the review of literature addressing the is-sue of low incidence of supplier switching. Previous research conducted on this topic in other countries has uncovered some of the obstacles that prevent the “liberal” behaviour of consumers.

H1.1: Loyalty to the incumbent electricity supplier significantly affects switching intention for household consumers.H1.2: Perceived information availability significantly affects switching intention for house-hold consumers.H1.3: Implementing a standardized tariff comparison system significantly increases perceived information availability.

Two of the obstacles mentioned by Gamble et al. (2009) manifest themselves during the decision making process of switching: loyalty to the incumbent supplier (a mostly emo-tional obstacle) and information availability (which determines the opportunity cost of the time spent searching for information). Limited availability of information, especially with regard to tariff comparison across suppliers is seen as a hindrance for the decision to switch (Salmela et al., 2006; von der Fehr et al., 2010). This last point suggests that a standardized

system for comparing prices and tariffs (such as the EUR/gr. or per ml. system implemented in the case of food retailers or the various systems used for comparing the total costs of bank loans) may be required in order to increase consumer confidence with regard to supplier switching.

The “specific” hypotheses were generated based on observations made while conduct-ing other research regarding the Romanian energy sector. The particular history and general customer experience regarding the Romanian utility and services markets mean that these is-sues are not relevant for all EU member states.

H2.1: The majority of Romanian household consumers are not aware of the possibility to switch electricity suppliers

While it is clear that HCs now legally have the freedom of choice, this by itself does not ensure that consumers understand or are even aware of it. Market liberalization is a rel-atively fresh concept in Romania, a country where all key public services were controlled by state owned monopolies (e.g.: gas, electricity, and telecommunications). Thus, the default state of mind is that utility suppliers are a given and are not subject to change.

H2.2: The majority of Romanian household consumers are not aware of the practical distinc-tion between electricity distribution and supply

The examples provided by other liberalized industries in Romania may suggest to the public that, in order to switch suppliers, the new supplier would need to develop their own distribution infrastructure in the end user’s area of residence. This is currently the case in the telecommunications industry, where the concept of infrastructure sharing or “line rental” as it is called in the UK, has not become a widespread practice. Therefore people who are not aware of the legal separation of distribution and supply may be unaware that a company which sells electricity in Bucharest may also provide their services in any other part of the country.

It should be noted that solving the consumer side issues illustrated by the four hypotheses does not guarantee that supplier side issues, such as limited availability of companies which are capable or willing to accept HCs, and the low negotiating power of HCs compared to Non-HCs, will not hinder the liberalization process. Understanding the scale and the implications of these issues may also serve as a topic for future research.

Conclusions

The current study has provided an assessment of the Romanian electricity sector, look-ing both at the major changes in the legislative framework and at the evolution of the in -dustry structure in terms of market agents and their roles. The paper also offers an insight into the role played by household consumers within the electricity market and provides a set of hypotheses to explain why these customers do not display an active behaviour given the liberalized market context.

We argue that the fast pace at which the restructuring and the liberalization of the Ro-manian energy sector were implemented means that household consumers have been left be-hind in the wake of the reforms, with a very limited understanding of the market in which they are currently expected to become active. It is likely that more recent developments, such as the gradual elimination of regulated tariffs and the additional costs generated by the

implementation of the green energy support schemes will provide sufficient motivation (through increased price pressure) for consumers to become better informed and more will-ing to consider supplier switching. The low level of awareness and understanding of the electricity market mechanics suggests that a comprehensive public information campaign, which includes mainstream media as a delivery channel, is necessary in order to generate any significant trends at the household consumer level.

Given the limited availability of high level historical and legislative assessments of the Romanian electricity sector, this study should prove to be useful for researchers and profes-sionals interested in gaining a basic understanding of the industry. The analysis regarding the role of household consumers in the electricity market and the resulting hypotheses rep-resent a starting point for regulatory authorities and academic researchers interested in un-derstanding the behaviour of domestic end users in the context of the current liberalized market.

Future research on the topic should focus on testing the proposed hypotheses regarding the behaviour of household electricity consumers. Another direction for future research should be to evaluate the role and behaviour of non-household consumers within the electricity retail market, given their much more significant share in total sales. The analysis of the non-household consumer component of the retail market will be of interest, considering the faster rate of tariff deregulation and the expected dissimilarity in supplier switching motivators compared to household consumers.

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