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Sabana REIT Sabana REIT October 2013

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Page 1: Sabana FINAL v2.ppt - sharesinvestcoach.com · ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV ... SABANA SHARIAH COMP INDUSTRIAL REIT 1.11 765.6 8.15 35.6 1.02 ... Sabana_FINAL v2.ppt [Compatibility Mode]

Sabana REITSabana REITOctober 2013

Page 2: Sabana FINAL v2.ppt - sharesinvestcoach.com · ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV ... SABANA SHARIAH COMP INDUSTRIAL REIT 1.11 765.6 8.15 35.6 1.02 ... Sabana_FINAL v2.ppt [Compatibility Mode]

Disclaimer

Please note that the information is provided for you by way of information only. All the information, report and analysis were and should be taken as having been prepared for the purpose of general circulation and that none were made with regard to any specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any particular person who may receive the information, report or analysis (including yourself). Any recommendation or advice that maybe expressed in or inferred from such information, reports or analysis therefore does not take into account and may not be suitable for your investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. You understand that you buy and/or sell and/or take any position in/or on the market, in any of the stocks, shares, products or instruments etc. based on your own decision(s). This is regardless of whether the information is analysed or not, regardless of the details or information related to price levels, support/resistance levels and any information based on technical or fundamental analysis. You understand and accept that nothing told or provided to you whether directly or indirectly is to be a basis for your decision(s) in relation to the market or your trades or transaction(s). Please see a registered trading representative or financial adviser for formal advise.

Page 3: Sabana FINAL v2.ppt - sharesinvestcoach.com · ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV ... SABANA SHARIAH COMP INDUSTRIAL REIT 1.11 765.6 8.15 35.6 1.02 ... Sabana_FINAL v2.ppt [Compatibility Mode]

Contents

1. Company Profile

2. Industrial Analysis

3. Valuation

4. Debt and Risk

Page 4: Sabana FINAL v2.ppt - sharesinvestcoach.com · ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV ... SABANA SHARIAH COMP INDUSTRIAL REIT 1.11 765.6 8.15 35.6 1.02 ... Sabana_FINAL v2.ppt [Compatibility Mode]
Page 5: Sabana FINAL v2.ppt - sharesinvestcoach.com · ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV ... SABANA SHARIAH COMP INDUSTRIAL REIT 1.11 765.6 8.15 35.6 1.02 ... Sabana_FINAL v2.ppt [Compatibility Mode]

Company Profile

�World's first REIT under Shari'ah Compliant

�Currently 100% Occupancy Rate

�Looking at acquisition (508 Chai Chee Lane)

�S&P BBB- rating

�2Q13 yield 8.3% y-o-y, DPU 0.024

Source: Company

Page 6: Sabana FINAL v2.ppt - sharesinvestcoach.com · ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV ... SABANA SHARIAH COMP INDUSTRIAL REIT 1.11 765.6 8.15 35.6 1.02 ... Sabana_FINAL v2.ppt [Compatibility Mode]
Page 7: Sabana FINAL v2.ppt - sharesinvestcoach.com · ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV ... SABANA SHARIAH COMP INDUSTRIAL REIT 1.11 765.6 8.15 35.6 1.02 ... Sabana_FINAL v2.ppt [Compatibility Mode]

Industrial

Source: Company

Page 8: Sabana FINAL v2.ppt - sharesinvestcoach.com · ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV ... SABANA SHARIAH COMP INDUSTRIAL REIT 1.11 765.6 8.15 35.6 1.02 ... Sabana_FINAL v2.ppt [Compatibility Mode]

Industrial

Source: Company

Page 9: Sabana FINAL v2.ppt - sharesinvestcoach.com · ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV ... SABANA SHARIAH COMP INDUSTRIAL REIT 1.11 765.6 8.15 35.6 1.02 ... Sabana_FINAL v2.ppt [Compatibility Mode]

Industrial

Source: Company

Page 10: Sabana FINAL v2.ppt - sharesinvestcoach.com · ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV ... SABANA SHARIAH COMP INDUSTRIAL REIT 1.11 765.6 8.15 35.6 1.02 ... Sabana_FINAL v2.ppt [Compatibility Mode]

Industrial

Source: Company

Page 11: Sabana FINAL v2.ppt - sharesinvestcoach.com · ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV ... SABANA SHARIAH COMP INDUSTRIAL REIT 1.11 765.6 8.15 35.6 1.02 ... Sabana_FINAL v2.ppt [Compatibility Mode]

Lease Expiry Profile

Source: Company

� Pressure is still on for the four master lease expiring in Nov 2013, downward pressure on DPU if not renewed

Page 12: Sabana FINAL v2.ppt - sharesinvestcoach.com · ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV ... SABANA SHARIAH COMP INDUSTRIAL REIT 1.11 765.6 8.15 35.6 1.02 ... Sabana_FINAL v2.ppt [Compatibility Mode]
Page 13: Sabana FINAL v2.ppt - sharesinvestcoach.com · ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV ... SABANA SHARIAH COMP INDUSTRIAL REIT 1.11 765.6 8.15 35.6 1.02 ... Sabana_FINAL v2.ppt [Compatibility Mode]

Valuation

Year 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Net Property Income ($’000)

76,937 87,324 92,882 94,740 96,635

Net financing costs ($’000)

-17,057 -17,897 -18,949 -20,212 -21,474

Operating Fees ($’000)

-9,199 -8,392 -8,804 -8,941 -9,081

Income available for distribution ($’000)

54,041 61,198 63,238 63,761 63,804

DPU (SGD Cents) 8.44 9.96 9.20 9.22 9.22

Fair Value $1.18

Forecasted Dividend Yield 8.07%

Cost of Equity 8.6%

Terminal Growth 1.0%

Page 14: Sabana FINAL v2.ppt - sharesinvestcoach.com · ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV ... SABANA SHARIAH COMP INDUSTRIAL REIT 1.11 765.6 8.15 35.6 1.02 ... Sabana_FINAL v2.ppt [Compatibility Mode]

Peer Comparison

Company NameLast Price @ 11/10/13

Market Cap (S$ Mil)

Annualized Div. Yield

Gearing (%)

Price to Book Ratio

AIMS AMP CAPITAL INDUSTRIAL 1.50 789.9 6.67 27.3 0.86

ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV TRT 2.30 5522.0 6.17 27.0 1.17

CACHE LOGISTICS TRUST 1.19 918.7 7.54 24.4 1.21CAMBRIDGE INDUSTRIAL

TRUST 0.68 838.1 7.29 34.6 1.01MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL

TRUST 1.36 2256.3 7.17 33.3 1.23MAPLETREE LOGISTICS

TRUST 1.08 2622.2 6.70 32.4 1.17SOILBUILD BUSINESS SPACE

REIT 0.74 594.6 7.89 30.1 0.93

SABANA SHARIAH COMP INDUSTRIAL REIT 1.11 765.6 8.15 35.6 1.02

Sector Average 1788.4 7.20 30.6 1.07

*Source: Data From Bloomberg and HSBC, Soilbuild dividend yield estimated

Page 15: Sabana FINAL v2.ppt - sharesinvestcoach.com · ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV ... SABANA SHARIAH COMP INDUSTRIAL REIT 1.11 765.6 8.15 35.6 1.02 ... Sabana_FINAL v2.ppt [Compatibility Mode]

Sensitivity Analysis

-30.0%

-25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0% 7.5% 8.0%

% Change in Fair Value

All-In Financing Cost (%)

Sensitivity Analysis: Financing Cost

Page 16: Sabana FINAL v2.ppt - sharesinvestcoach.com · ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV ... SABANA SHARIAH COMP INDUSTRIAL REIT 1.11 765.6 8.15 35.6 1.02 ... Sabana_FINAL v2.ppt [Compatibility Mode]

Sensitivity Analysis

-25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0%

% Change in Fair Value

Singapore Government 10-Year Bond Yields

Sensitivity Analysis: Risk-Free Rate

Page 17: Sabana FINAL v2.ppt - sharesinvestcoach.com · ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV ... SABANA SHARIAH COMP INDUSTRIAL REIT 1.11 765.6 8.15 35.6 1.02 ... Sabana_FINAL v2.ppt [Compatibility Mode]
Page 18: Sabana FINAL v2.ppt - sharesinvestcoach.com · ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV ... SABANA SHARIAH COMP INDUSTRIAL REIT 1.11 765.6 8.15 35.6 1.02 ... Sabana_FINAL v2.ppt [Compatibility Mode]

Debt Profile

Debt Debt Amount Maturities

Commodity Murabaha Facilities A, B

252.6 mil (refinanced by E,F )

2013

Commodity Murabaha Facilities C

100 mil 2014

Commodity Murabaha Facilities D

12 mil (Fully repaid)

2013

Commodity Murabaha Facilities E,F

252.6 mil 2015, 2017

Convertible Sukuk 80 mil @ 4.5% per annum

24 Sep 2017

Source: Company

Page 19: Sabana FINAL v2.ppt - sharesinvestcoach.com · ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV ... SABANA SHARIAH COMP INDUSTRIAL REIT 1.11 765.6 8.15 35.6 1.02 ... Sabana_FINAL v2.ppt [Compatibility Mode]

Debt Analysis

Source: Company

As at 30 Sep 2013

Borrowings S$ 455.3 Mil

Outstanding term loans S$ 352.8 Mil

Outstanding Revolving Credit Facilities S$ 30.0 Mil

Convertible Sukuk due 2017 S$ 72.5 Mil

Aggregate Leverage 37.5%

Average all in financial Cost 4.0%

Weighted average debt tenor 2.1 years

Interest cover 5.0X

� No pressure on falling behind interest obligation but the short tenor of the debt tenor will increase financial cost given rising interest rate environment

Page 20: Sabana FINAL v2.ppt - sharesinvestcoach.com · ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV ... SABANA SHARIAH COMP INDUSTRIAL REIT 1.11 765.6 8.15 35.6 1.02 ... Sabana_FINAL v2.ppt [Compatibility Mode]

Risk Analysis

�DPU Pressure� Changing from Master tenant to Mulit-tenant profile as well as a

flattish industrial rental outlook (increase supply) will put pressure on stability of its occupancy and distributable income

�High Debt Leverage � At around 35% and management is still indicative of further

acquisition means that there is still pressure for further dilutive rights issue

�Rising Financial Cost� Rising interest rate will affect cost of capital

Page 21: Sabana FINAL v2.ppt - sharesinvestcoach.com · ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV ... SABANA SHARIAH COMP INDUSTRIAL REIT 1.11 765.6 8.15 35.6 1.02 ... Sabana_FINAL v2.ppt [Compatibility Mode]

Shari’ah compliant

Source: Company

Page 22: Sabana FINAL v2.ppt - sharesinvestcoach.com · ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV ... SABANA SHARIAH COMP INDUSTRIAL REIT 1.11 765.6 8.15 35.6 1.02 ... Sabana_FINAL v2.ppt [Compatibility Mode]
Page 23: Sabana FINAL v2.ppt - sharesinvestcoach.com · ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV ... SABANA SHARIAH COMP INDUSTRIAL REIT 1.11 765.6 8.15 35.6 1.02 ... Sabana_FINAL v2.ppt [Compatibility Mode]
Page 24: Sabana FINAL v2.ppt - sharesinvestcoach.com · ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV ... SABANA SHARIAH COMP INDUSTRIAL REIT 1.11 765.6 8.15 35.6 1.02 ... Sabana_FINAL v2.ppt [Compatibility Mode]

Appendix: Valuation

Table 1: 2013 Q4 Revenue Estimate

Base line (Q2 Revenue) S$ 21.6 mn

Lease renewal loss at 93% occupancy2 (0.1)

Additional revenue from new property3 1.2

Net 22.7

2 Four properties subject to lease renewal. Assume 93% occupancy, effectively impacting Q4 performance.3 Chai Chee property revenue at S$1.925/ psf

Revenue 2013 Q3 – S$21.6 mn (flat with Q2)2013 Q4 – S$22.7 mn (see table 1 on the right)FY2014 – S$92.9 mn (see table 2 on the right)FY2015 – S$94.7 mn (revenue growth of 2%)FY2016 – S$96.6 mn (revenue growth of 2%)

Operating expenses

Assume constant % of Revenue

Interest rate

Assume +0.3% year on year

DPU/ Dividend Yield %1

FY2013 – 8.96 cents/ 8.1%FY2014 – 9.20 cents/ 8.4%FY2015 – 9.22 cents/ 8.4%FY2016 – 9.17 cents/ 8.4%

1 At price of S$1.075

Table 2: 2014 Q1-4 Revenue Estimate

Base line (Q2 Revenue) S$ 21.6 mn

Lease renewal loss at 93% occupancy2 (0.2)

Additional revenue from new property3 1.9

Net for each Quarter 23.2

Net for FY 92.9