sadc agricultural information management system: crop and rangeland monitoring activities for early...
TRANSCRIPT
SADC Agricultural Information Management System:
Crop and Rangeland Monitoring Activities for Early Warning for Food
Security
Blessing Siwela,Agricultural Information Officer, SADC FANR
Outline• Background to SADC Region
• About SADC FANR, Agricultural Information Management System (AIMS)
• Crop and Rangeland Monitoring approach
• Data / information gathering mechanisms
• Use of Earth Observation data for season crop and rangeland monitoring
• Main indicators of crop condition used
• Information Dissemination approaches
• Challenges
• Upcoming developments
15 Member States 220+ million people. Varied climate regions. Mostly uni-modal rainfall systems (bi-modal in
the north). Varied cropping systems. Cereal cropping dominant (Maize, sorghum,
millet, wheat) Cassava and tubers important in the north. Rain fed agriculture – irrigation only significant in
South Africa and Zimbabwe. Main Livestock types include cattle, goats, sheep Prone to floods and droughts. Other main challenges include bush fires,
deforestation.
SADC Region - BackgroundSouthern African Development Community
Agricultural Information Management System (AIMS)
• The Agricultural Information Management System (AIMS) programme is meant to provide planners and policy makers easy access to information necessary for revitalizing agricultural and natural resources growth, enhancing food security and promoting rural development.
• Activities include: – development of networks for timely collection of
information for early warning, – vulnerability assessments, – food security assessments,– establishment of a Food, Agriculture and Natural
Resources’ integrated database on food security and natural resources
AIMS: Operational Activities
• Supporting agro-meteorologists in the use of satellite imagery products and GIS for crop and rangeland for food security.
• Monitoring crops, vegetation and weather developments during the crop growing period using satellite images and GIS techniques.
• Collection of information on agriculture (crop and livestock performance) from national contacts
• Preparing and disseminating reports on the status of the main crop growing season, and the food security situation in SADC countries
AIMS: Operational Activities
Countries
Website
Bulletins
Country Windows
Image Review / analysis
USGS/ FEWSNET
VITO
AMESD
SADC Archive
E-mail / internet
• Acquisition and distribution of remote sensing datasets used for crop and rangeland monitoring
Crop and Rangeland Monitoring approach
Identify the key cropland and rangeland areas for monitoring
Collection of information from National Early Warning Systems
Climate / weather outlooks, Rainfall performance Crop stages, crop and pasture condition Hydrological information
Complement the information with remote sensing data Use convergence of evidence to analyse and arrive at
conclusions on the state of crops and rangeland Identify “hot spots” for close monitoring Prepare regular reports and distribute widely
Crop and Rangeland Monitoring approach
• key cropland and rangeland areas for monitoring identified through analysis of
– historical yield and production information– livelihood analysis profiles
FEWSNETFAO
Crop and Rangeland Monitoring approach
• Collection of information from National Early Warning Systems
– Climate / weather outlooks, Rainfall performance
– Farming inputs (machinery, fertilisers, seeds, etc)
– Crop stages, crop and pasture condition
– Livestock numbers and health
– Hydrological information
– Crop production estimates
NEWU
Crop and Rangeland Monitoring approach
• Collection of information from National Early Warning Systems - How?
– Bulletins are received from early warning systems via e-mail [10-day agrometeorological updates, monthly food security reports]
– Questionnaires (hardcopy and electronic) send out to contact points
– Information exchange by e-mail, telephone
– Online forms for data collection are being introduced
Available Remote Sensing Data • Available satellite-based data used for regular monitoring:
– vegetation products (NDVI from SPOT VEGETATION, NOAA AVHRR, MSG)
– rainfall monitoring (CPC RFE 2.0, TAMSAT RFE)• These products are analyzed and further processed into
application specific products for flood and drought monitoring• Other datasets
• MODIS NDVI• Vgt4Africa datasets (NDVI, DMP, NDWI, SWB, etc)• LANDSAT• ASTER
• RFE is used to drive a number of applications used for agricultural season monitoring
• These include– Rainfall performance– Water Requirements Satisfaction Index (WRSI)– Onset of Rains– Soil Moisture Index– Quelea birds breeding forecasts
Applications of CPC RFE data
Monitoring Rainfall Activity• CPC Rainfall Estimate (RFE 2.0) data, which combines satellite images with rain gauge observations.• RFE images from USGS / FEWSNET
January 2008 rainfall estimates
Mozambique, 2008
Zambia, 2008
Jan 1-10 Jan 11-20 Jan 21-31
Monitoring Rainfall Activity•Time-series graphs•Comparison with reference data (e.g. Averages)•>>Image differencing•>>Percentage maps
Time series rainfall analysis
Percentage cumulative rainfall received
Crop Condition Monitoring
• The Water Requirements Satisfaction Index (WRSI) is a crop specific water balance approach that models the effect of seasonal rainfall availability on potential crop yields.
• WRSI indicates the extent (in percent) to which the water requirements of the crop has been satisfied in a cumulative way at any stage of the crop growing season.
• Two approaches are used in the SADC region – using satellite-based, distributed approach, and a ground-based point-specific approach
• The model is being used in several SADC countries to monitor crop water use with a view to yield forecasting and estimation. SADC RRSU is providing training
• Operational model run at USGS but modern modelling software now publicly available from FAO (AgrometShell) and USGS (GeoSpatial WRSI).
Crop Water Balance Modeling
Water Requirements Satisfaction Index
(WRSI)
WRSI=100*AET/WR
Regression models
Yield Estimation
Water Requirements Satisfaction Index
Malawi WRSI yield modelling
Water Requirements Satisfaction Index
• WRSI yield models are used operationally to provide early estimates of yield and production
• Higher correlations with yield in the southern parts of the country
• Lower correlations in the northern districts could be related to poor distribution of rainfall stations
Main maize production areas [FEWSNET]
WRSI / Yield R-Sq values
Swaziland WRSI yield modelling
Water Requirements Satisfaction Index
• Swaziland yield models and their reliability• Correlations with WRSI high in the main maize growing areas • Poor correlations in Lowveld
Main maize production areas [FEWSNET]
WRSI / Yield R-Sq values
Monitoring of Pests :Quelea birds breeding forecasts
• Forecasting suitable breeding conditions for the red-billed quelea birds
• Based on daily rainfall (currently NOAA CPC estimates) and ancillary information on quelea birds
• Updated weekly• Threats to small grain
crops• Developed by Natural
Resources Institute of the University of Greenwich, www.nri.org
http://www.sadc.int/fanr/aims/rrsu/quel/index.htm
Available NDVI datasets
Type Resolution Frequency Source
NOAA AVHRR 1.1km, 8km 10 days USGS/FEWSNET
SPOT VGT 1.1km 10 days VITO
MODIS 250m, 500m 16 days USGS
METEOSAT-8 3km BMS Receiver
Vegetation Monitoring
Available NDVI datasetsGAC 8km
Source: USGS / FEWSNET
1982-current
21-31 January 2006
S-10 NDVI (MVC) from FAO ARTEMIS (via FTP)
SADC-wide coverage
EumetCast distribution via MSG receivers, http://www.vgt4africa.org
Vegetation Monitoring
NDVI time-series analysis
Time series analysis done for visualizing seasonal trends in the major agricultural areas
Comparison with average and other seasons
Vegetation Monitoring
NDVI trend series smoothing (Reed et al, 1999)
February 11-20 2000
February 21-29 2000
March 1-10 2000
Weighted least squares approach to NDVI smoothing
5-dekad overlapping moving windows used
Vegetation Monitoring
2003 drought in parts of southern Africa
VGT S-10 NDVI used in SADC report to show extent of drought
SPOT VGT
Vegetation Monitoring
NDVI Based Indicators
Vegetation Productivity Indicator (VPI)references current the
NDVI value to its historical probability
Developed at Cranfield University
20% 40% 60% 80%
Vegetation Monitoring
Information Products
• A number of bulletins are produced to meet information requirements, including:– Regular agro-meteorological updates at 10-day and
monthly intervals– Ad-hoc “Significant Weather Developments” (SWD)
bulletins which aim to “ provide timely highlights of developing weather patterns and their potential impacts to human lives and property”
– Other special bulletins to address current or issues e.g. Rainfall forecast interpretation; flood / drought alert
• E-mail distribution• Websites:
• www.sadc.int/fanr/aims• www.sadc.int/geonetwork/
Information Products• AIMS online data visualisation tools
– Crop production [national and provincial]
Information Products• AIMS online data visualisation tools
– Livestock health and numbers
Information Products• AIMS online data visualisation tools
– Populations vulnerable to food security
Information Products – Country Profiles
• AIMS online data visualisation tools– Country profiles
Information Products – Country Profiles
• AIMS online data visualisation tools– Country profiles
Agromet Up-dates
Agric Areas
Crops
Rainfall
Models
Agric Activities
Crops
Dry January conditions suggest a pre-mature cessation of short rains (Vuli) in the bi-modal rainfall areas of Tanzania.
2008-2009 Agriculture SeasonJan 1 – Feb 10, 2009 Rainfall,
Percentage of average
2009 rainfall has been below average in eastern Zimbabwe, and central and southern Mozambique, dry spells in these areas have resulted in moisture stress.
Good crop conditions reported in South African high maize production areas.
Consistent high rainfall totals in southern Angola and northern Namibia resulted in abnormally high river levels in the Cuvelai and Zambezi basin, causing extensive flooding. The flooding led to loss of lives, displacements of people and cattle, and also destroyed crops.
Significant Weather DevelopmentsForecast Cyclone Tracks
A tropical disturbance has formed in the Mozambique Channel. The chance of the disturbance devel-oping into a cyclone is currently fair. Due to the disturbance, heavy rains may be expected in central Mozambique, Malawi, eastern Zambia and northeastern Zimbabwe.
The Significant Weather Developments bulletin is intended to provide timely highlights of developing weather patterns that might pose a threat to human lives and property. While efforts have been made to ensure accuracy of this report, country specific requirements should be addressed to the National Meteorological Services. The RRSU and FEWSNET produce a situational Regional Flood Watch during the rainy season. The SADC Regional Remote Sensing Unit P.O. Box 4046, Harare, Zimbabwe. Email: [email protected] Fax: 263-4-795283
Release date: 4 February 2002 : 1200 UTC
Infrared images showing progression of disturbance in Mozambique Channel
Cloud bands associated with the tropical disturbance, coupled with mois-ture influxes into the southern fringes of the rain-bearing Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) may bring heavy rains to central Mozambique, Malawi, eastern Zambia and northeastern Zimbabwe.
Heavy Rainfall Prospects
A tropical disturbance has developed in the Mozambique Channel. Satellite infrared images (see figures below) show a region of convection develop-
ing from off the central coast of Mo-zambique into the Channel. Winds are estimated at between 37 and 46 km/hr. The potential for the development
of a significant cyclone are currently fair.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
A tropical disturbance or zone of disturbed weather is an area of low pressure relative to the surrounding region. Its associated cloud masses are usually not well organized as compared to an actual cyclone.
Terminology Note
The Regional Remote Sensing Unit will keep you updated on any significant development regarding the tropical disturbance.
0900 UTC 03 Feb. 2002
1200 UTC 03 Feb. 2002
0600 UTC 03 Feb. 2002
NO
AA
Clim
ate Pred
iction Ce
nter. 1600 UTC 03 Feb. 2002
Major River Basins
Examples from SWD bulletins
Online Data Management Tools• SADC GeoNetwork, www.sadc.int/geonetwork/
• A web based open-source metadata catalogue application
• ISO19115/19139 Geographic Metadata standards
• GeoNetwork integrates
– Search functions
– Administrative functions
– Data sharing - distribution and publication
• Developed by UN's FAO, WFP and UNEP to promote data sharing
Current main challenges• Lack of resources for monitoring of agriculture by
extension officers
• Ground rainfall observation networks and Data management
– Awareness among decision makers on importance of these networks
– Training of meteorological officers
– Maintenance
• Reliability of rainfall estimates
• Identification of cropped areas
• Crop area estimation for food security analysis
• Availability software for analysis of early warning remote sensing and GIS datasets
Identified Areas of Need / Concern
Agricultural Production Information
Rainfall amount and patterns
Crop Area Measurement Yield Estimate Crop Cycles
Disaster Monitoring Drought / Flood Bush Fires Cyclones Pest and Diseases
Natural Resources Management Water bodies monitoring Soil types and Fertility Wetland statusLand Management Information Deforestation / afforestation Alien Species Invasion Grazing Capacity Seasonal biomass monitoring Classification of potential land
uses Demarcation of crop and
range land
Upcoming Initiatives
• Collaboration with African Monitoring of the Environment for Sustainable Development (AMESD) on preparation of agro-meteorological reports
– Theme: Agricultural and Environment Resource Management
– Access to EO datasets– Information management aimed at
improving decision making
Contacts
For more information on the AIMS programme, contact
– Blessing Siwela, [email protected]– Bentry Chaura, [email protected]
Website: www.sadc.int/fanr/aims
Thank You