Safeguarding America’sAgricultural Statistics

A Century of Successful and Secure Procedures, 1905-2005

Rich AllenApril 2007U.S. Department of AgricultureNational Agricultural Statistics Service

Contents

Dedication i Acknowledgments iiIntroduction iii 1. The Event that Changed Statistical Reporting 1 The“DataLeak”of1905 ImmediateReactionstotheDataLeak

2. Evolution of Agricultural Statistics Reporting—A Timeline 4 DataSourcesandReleaseProceduresintheEarly1900s ModificationsFollowingEstablishmentoftheCropReportingBoard(CRB) ExpansionandDecentralizationfrom1910through1930 ImpactsoftheGreatDepressiononAgriculturalStatistics FoundingoftheStatisticalReportingService

3. Technology Changes and Advancements 11 ImpactsoftheModernEraofStatisticalTechniquesI ImpactsoftheModernEraofStatisticalTechniquesII FromPlasticRulerstoInteractiveTools EnteringtheElectronicEra

4. Governing Laws and Processes 18 LawsConcerningtheAgencyandtheCRB CreationoftheWorldAgriculturalOutlookBoard

5. Current Practices and Procedures 22 ShiftingfromDaytoNight ThePresentBoardConceptandTypesofBoards CreatingandAdheringtoaCalendar

6. The People Behind the Reports 27 GlimpsesofSecretariesandOtherReportSigners TheSpecialRolesoftheCRBandASBSecretary

7. Uncovering True Stories and Popular Culture 32 TheTrueStoryoftheSodaDeliveryman OtherSpecialSecurityInterpretations TheCRBinPrintandtheMovies

8. Our NASS Pledge and Mission 37 NASSEmployees—TheSecretofCRBSuccess CommemoratingaCenturyofSuccessfulandSecureProcedures TheFuture

Appendix A: Chairpersons of the CRB and the ASB 40Appendix B: Secretaries of the CRB and ASB 46Appendix C: News Releases 49Appendix D: Testimonials for ASB Commemoration 50Appendix E: Photographs from ASB Commemoration on July 12, 2005 53Appendix F: About the Author 58

References 60

DEDICATION

“Out of Adversity Often Come Great Solutions”-Unknown Author

ThispublicationisdedicatedtothethousandsofemployeesoftheUnitedStatesDepartmentofAgricul-ture’sNationalAgriculturalStatisticsService—and itspredecessororganizations—who in thepast100yearshavebuilt thepremiere statistical confidentialityprocedures in theworld. It is also intended tohonorthememoryofWilletMartinHayswhosetthoseproceduresinmotionwhentheresponsibilityfortheintegrityofofficialstatisticswasthrustuponhiminreactiontoabreachofpublictrustbyanotheremployee.

Thispresentationisintendedtobeillustrative,insteadofexhaustive,initsdetail.Manydifferentsourceswereconsultedfortheearliesthistoricaleventsinthissummary.Alistofsuggestedreferencesisincludedattheendofthisaccount.

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

ThispublicationhasbeenwrittentoserveasanoralhistoryofUSDA’sAgriculturalStatisticsBoardfrom1905to2005.However,sincenoonepersonwaspresentduringalltheeventsinthepastcentury,itwasnecessarytorelyonaseriesofformeraccountsofthehistoryoftheNationalAgriculturalStatisticsService(NASS)andtheAgriculturalStatisticsBoard(ASB).Themostprolificrecorderofthisearlierhistory,andaninspirationforthispublication,wasEmersonBrooks,USDA,whocreatedatleasttwoearliersumma-ries.

Throughapreliminaryreleaseofthispublication,manyofthespecificactionsweredescribedorverifiedbypastSecretariesandDeputySecretariesofAgriculture,AssistantSecretariesforEconomics,Chairper-sonsoftheASBandtheWorldAgriculturalOutlookBoard(WAOB),andSecretariesoftheASB.Theirhelpwasinvaluableincreatingascompleteastoryasyounowread.Sinceitisimpossibletofullyrecreatehistoryandtosortoutsmalldifferencesinrecordeddates,spellingsandactualactionsfromdifferentac-counts,theauthortakesresponsibilityforanyincorrectdetailsinthisaccount.Inaddition,hewillassumeresponsibilityforanymisspellingofnames,oruseoflessthanfavorednameforms,inthepublication.

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INTRODUCTION

Thispublicationcommemorates100yearsofprotectingUnitedStatesDepartmentofAgriculture(USDA)statisticalpublicationsfromimproperadvancednotificationtoanyoutsideindividuals. Itexplainstheunfortunateeventsof100yearsago,whichledtothecreationoftheCropReportingBoard(CRB),nowreferredtoas theAgriculturalStatisticsBoard(ASB). It traces theevolution fromonesmallgroupofpeopleprotectingthepre-releaseintegrityofspecificreportstoanagency-widewayoflifethatensurestheintegrityofalldatathattheorganizationhandles.

Thispresentationbeginsin1905,explainingthediscoveryofaninsidertradingschemeandthequickrem-ediesthatweretaken.Theorganizationalstructureandthedatasourcesin1905,aswellasmajorchangesinstatisticalproceduresandAgencyorganizationalstructureacrossthelast100years,aretracedalongwiththeirimpactsonASBprocedures.

SomeofthelightermomentsinASBhistory—andtheimpactofitssecurityproceduresuponunsuspectingparties—arecovered.Theexplanationssometimescorrectpopularfolklorethatresultedfromthetellingandretellingofstoriesovertime.EvolutionofnewphysicalandelectronicsecurityandreleaseproceduresdemonstratehowtheAgencyhasadaptedtonewtechnologiesoverthepast100years.

Mostofall,thisstorytellsaboutthepeoplewhohaveupheldandimprovedUSDA’sconfidentialityproce-dures.TheAgencyreceivedoneofitshighestcompliments,in1969,whenfollowersofconsumeractivistRalphNader(dubbed“Nader’sRaiders”)spentthesummerstudyingandinvestigatingtheoperationsandsecurityproceduresofmanyFederalGovernmentagenciesintheWashington,D.C.area.Atonepoint,aNaderpublicistcommentedthattheyfoundtheDepartmentofAgricultureprotectedsecretsbetterthananyotherorganizationtheystudied.

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Chapter 1

THE EVENT THAT CHANGED STATISTICAL REPORTINGThe “Data Leak” of 1905

The summary and release procedures fortheUSDABureauofStatistics’reportsintheear-ly 1900s produced separate summary tabulationsfor each data source available (up to six sources,in some cases). The indications from all sourceswerebroughttogetheronlyshortlybeforeareportwasscheduledforrelease.Threespecificindividu-als, ledby theChiefof theBureau, reviewed theindications, compared them to data from earliermonthsandyears,anddecidedonthestateandna-tionalfigurestopublish.Thisprocessneededtobefinishedinsufficienttimetoallowfortypingandsettingupthetelegramformatsthatweretransmit-ted across the country at the moment of release.It is also relevant that the release time for cottonreportsinthoseyearswasnoon,EasternTime,andthatthecommoditymarketsdiscontinuedtradingforanhourstartingatnoononreleasedays.The

originalproceduresallowedthe threepeoplewhohaddeterminedthefinalnumberstogoabouttheirbusiness,orevenleavethebuildingiftheywished,onceareport’scontentshadbeenset. In 1904 there were rumors about insidertrading.Ascametolightlater,oneofthethreeBu-reauofStatisticspeople,E.S.Holmes,Jr.,didhaveanoutsidepartner,aNewYorkcottontradernamedLouisVanRiper.Shortlyafteranestimatewasset,HolmeswouldmeetVanRiperandtellhimwhatcotton estimate was going to be published. VanRiperwouldtakewhatevermarketactionwouldbemostprofitablebasedontheadvanceinformation. Bureau Chief John Hyde did not believethatinsidertradingwaspossible.However,hean-nouncedanadditionalmeasuretodemonstratethe“integrity”ofthesystembydecreeingthatnoneofthethreememberswouldleavetheworkareauntil

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thereporthadbeenreleased. ThatdidnotdeterHolmesandhispartner.Theyworkedoutasignalsystemusingaparticularwindowblindtoindicatethelevelofthefiguretobepublished.Theyappar-entlyestimatedaprobablelevelforthenationalfig-ureandiftheactualtotalwasclosetotheirestimateHolmesraisedthewindowblindtothemiddleofthewindow.Ifthetotalwashigherorlower,Hol-mesadjustedtheblindbasedonthescaletheyhadcontrived. BureauChiefHydefelthehadtakencareofanypossibleopportunityfordatabeingleakedbuttheinsiderrumorspersisted.TheschemecametolightfollowingthecottonacreagereportissuedonJune2,1905.Thethreemembersmetandad-optedthestateandnationalfigurestobepublished.AfterHolmeshadsenthissignal,oneoftheotherpeople who had worked on the report asked forreconsideration. After further review, the figuresto be published were revised. At that point, theoutsidepartnerhadalreadyinterpretedtheoriginalsignalandproceededtoplacetrades. TheschemecametolightwhenVanRipercharged in a telegram that a “fraudulent” reporthadbeenreleased.Inexplainingwhyhethoughtthiswasafalsereport,heunwittinglyrevealedthathehad the informationaheadof time.Evidently,Holmes’outsidepartnerhadanoverabundanceofego,butnotagoodbalanceofcommonsense ingoingpublicwithhisstory.

Immediate Reactions to the Data Leak

In 1905 no insider trading prohibitionswere in place. Holmes was removed from officeandanumberofgrand jury indictmentswere is-sued. Since the specific grounds for prosecutionwerenotasclearastheyaretoday,ittookseveralyearstoprosecutehim.Holmesreceivedafineof$5,000andsomeotherpartiestotheschemewerealsofined. BureauChiefHyderesignedinfrustration.Hyde was an honorable person who had mademanyimprovementsintheUSDAcropestimatingproceduresafterhetookoverin1897.However,hehadsufferedthroughmultiplecriticismsandinves-tigations—includingahearingbeforetheHouseof

Representatives Committee on Agriculture aboutthe 1904 cotton crop, in which he persuasivelydemonstrated the rigor of the survey indicationsreceivedandtheaccuracyofthedatathathadbeenreleased.Hisresignationlettermentionedthathismedicaladvisorworriedabouttheimpactstressfulconditionshadalreadyhadonhishealth.

Assistant Secretary of Agriculture Willet M. Hays signs an official statistical report, in March 1910, as members of the Crop Reporting Board watch. Pictured (L to R) are Private Secretary to the Chief Statistician M.M. McKenna, Field Statistician John J. Darg, Chief Statistician Victor H. Olmsted, State Statistical Agent for Indiana Duncan, Assistant Sec-retary of Agriculture Willet M. Hays, and Associate Statistician Nat C. Murray. Photograph from Special Collections, National Agricultural Library.

SecretaryofAgricultureJames“TamaJim”Wilson,whohadearlierin1905persuadedWilletMartinHaystoleavetheUniversityofMinnesotaandjoinUSDAasanAssistantSecretaryofAgri-culture,assignedHaystotemporarilyheadupthestatisticalprogram.Hayswasknownforhisworkinteachingfieldstudiesofagriculturaleconomicsand farm management techniques. His work inMinnesota,beforejoiningUSDA,hadbeentoes-tablishasystemofagriculturalhighschools,whichwere associated with the university. His USDAwork in agricultural education was successful inputting projects in motion that eventually led tothe landmarkSmith-LeverAct in1915,which isstill providing research funding to the States to-day.

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Haysdidnotviewhimselfasanagriculturalstatistician,particularlynotoftheJohnHydecali-ber.Insteadofcontinuingthethree-member,fixedpanelapproachtosettingestimates,hedevelopedanapproachofidentifyingeightqualified individu-als(fourinWashingtonandfourStateAgents)whowouldbringstatisticalandagriculturalknowledgetothecropestimatingwork.Hisapproachwastohavefouroftheeightindividualsparticipateinset-tingtheestimatesforeachmajorreport.TheStateAgentswouldparticularly bringfirsthandknowl-edgeofcurrentcropandmarketconditions. Hays’ new concept was adopted immedi-atelyand,byAugust1905,reportswerelabeledasbeing releasedby the “CropEstimatingBoardoftheDepartmentofAgriculture,”insteadofthefor-mer,“issuedbytheBureauofStatistics.”ThefirstuseofthespecificCropReportingBoardtermap-pearedinNovemberof1905andbecamethestan-dard. Twospecialreportswere issuedinAugust1905.Thefirstwasarevision(correction)ofthecotton acreage thathadbeen releasedon June2.ThenewU.S.estimate,basedonathoroughreviewof all indications that were present in June, was

for a reduction inplanted acres compared to theoriginallypublished11.4percent. There is someevidencethatHolmeshadoriginallypushedforanevensmallerreductionthanthe11.4percent.Thesecondspecialreportwasacorrectiontothe1905tobacco acres by type estimate. In this instance,itappearsthattheoriginalestimatehadnotbeenmanipulatedbut three computational errorswereoverlooked in preparing the June summary dur-ingthetumultuousperiodafterHyderesignedandHaysassumedhisnewduties. The 1905 Yearbook of Agriculture con-tainedaseven-pagesynopsisoftheworkoftheBu-reauofStatistics. Thatwrite-upservedasabasic“scopeandmethods”documentandexpressedthebasicphilosophyofwhyimpartialstatisticalreportswereessentialtoagriculturalproducers.Itdidref-erencetheunfortunateJunereportandclosedwiththefollowingstrongsentiments: “…Theresponsibilityforthis‘leak’issharedbyeveryonewho,togetmoneywithoutwork,gam-blesinfarmproducts.Whenthisformofindustryceases,theseparasiteswhotemptDepartmentof-ficialswillhavetoworkfortheirbread.”

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Chapter 2

EVOLUTION OF AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS REPORTING—A TIMELINE

Data Sources and Release Procedures in the Early 1900s

TheDepartmentofAgriculturewasadif-ferent organization at the turn of the 20th cen-tury compared to the organization that existsnow—100yearslater.ThetwooriginalfunctionsoftheDepartmentweretocollectstatisticsandtodistributeseeds. Additional functionsevolvedbytheearly1900sbutaveryclose tie remainedbe-tweentheSecretaryofAgricultureandthestatisti-calestimates.TheexplanationoftherevisedCropReportingBoardproceduresincludedinthe1905Yearbook of Agriculture specified that the Boardwouldmeetonreportdays“…underthepersonalsupervisionoftheSecretaryortheAssistantSecre-tary.” TheearlieststatisticalworkoftheDepart-ment for domestic estimates had been based onregular(mostlymonthly)schedulescompletedandsent to Washington, D.C., by large numbers of

countycorrespondents.Paid,part-timeStateSta-tisticalAgentswereaddedin1887,eachofwhomdeveloped his own corps of correspondents. By1905StateAgentswerelocatedin43States.Thebackgroundsof theStateAgents further illustratethecloserelationshipoftheBureauofStatisticstothe Secretary ofAgriculture—and theU.S.Con-gress.TheGeorgiaStateAgentwasanex-governor.TheAlabamaAgentwasanex-ConfederateArmyGeneral and professor at Alabama A&M. TheMississippiAgentwasaprominentfarmerrecom-mendedbyboth senatorsand thegovernor. TheNorthCarolinaAgentwasaprofessorof agricul-tureattheStateCollege. Asystemoftownshipcorrespondentshadbeen added in 1896. Somewhere along the linesome paid, part-time special Field Agents werenamed who were responsible for evaluating the

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conditionsinmorethanoneState.JohnHydehaddevelopedthreeadditionaltypesofreporterswhileheheadedupthestatisticalwork:cottonginners,bankersandmerchants,listsofspecificgrowers.

SinceHydehadalreadyinstitutedalockeddoorpolicyforthedetailedreviewofthevariousin-dications,itappearsthatHays’contributionswerefirst todefine the rotationalBoard approach andsecondtobesurethecurtainsweredrawn,andanyadditional physical security measures employed,whiletheBoarddeliberateduptothereleasetime.

USDA officials retrieve the “Special A” envelopes containing summaries and recommendations sent from State and Field Agents to USDA headquarters in Washington, D.C.

Forreportssuchasthefirstacreagereportoftheyear,allsixdatasourcesmightbeemployed.QuestionnairescomingtoWashington,D.C.,fromeachdatasource(countycorrespondents,townshipcorrespondents, cotton ginners, specific growers,andbankers/merchants)weretabulatedseparatelyandtheindividualtabulationswerenotcomparedwithone anotheruntil thework areadoorswerelocked.TheStateandFieldAgentssenttheirsum-mariesandrecommendationsbysealedSpecial“A”envelopesor, if theywere locatedfar fromWash-ington,D.C.,bytelegraphusingaciphersystem.Thedocumentswerekeptsecureinadouble-lockedmailboxwhich servedasa safe.Thereports fromtheStateandFieldAgentswerenotremovedfromthemailboxandopeneduntilafterthedoorshadbeenlocked.Twosetsofkeyswererequiredtoun-locktheduallockstoensurethereportswerekeptsecure. Moststatisticalreportswerebasedonper-centagechangeopinions(foracreage)orconditionpercentagesinthecaseofevaluatingcropsduringthegrowingseason.Statisticiansusedthemostre-centcensusofagriculturedataasbenchmarks,andreportsthathadbeenissuedsincethelastcensusofagriculturewerere-evaluatedandrevisedifneededwhennewcensusdatabecameavailable.

If sources of information for a particularreport didnot closely agree,weightwas given tohistoricalperformanceofindicationsfromeachofthesources.

USDA officials unlock the safe/mailbox. Two sets of keys were required to unlock the dual locks to ensure the reports were kept secure.

USDA officer closes and seals the window blinds to maintain security.

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Evenintheearly1900s,duecarewastakentoinformallinterestedpartiesasuniformlyaspos-sible. Reports related to cottonwere releasedonthe3rdofthemonthatnoonduringthegrowingseason.Reportsonotherprincipalfarmcropsandlivestockwerereleasedonthe10thofthemonthat4p.m.Reportswerehandedtoallinterestedpar-tieswhoattendedandtotheWesternUnionTele-graph and the PostalTelegraph Cable companiesfor transmission to the press and to commodityexchanges. A short, mimeographed report con-tainingnarrativesanddatatables,whichincludedprevious estimates and final production figures,wassenttoamailinglistofpress,exchanges,andindividualsthatsameday.Aprintedcardwiththereportdetailswasmailedtoall77,000postofficesintheUnitedStatesforpublicdisplay.Detailsofallreportsreleasedduringamonthwereincludedinthe8-pagemonthly(exceptforFebruary)CropReporter,whichhadacirculationlistofmorethan100,000correspondentsandotherinterestedpar-ties.

From the Telegraph Room in the USDA South Building, the Crop Report is sent to all parts of the world.

Bureau of Statistics Chief Victor H. Olmsted (1910). Photograph from Special Collections, National Ag-ricultural Library.

changes were documented in the Crop Reporterannualreports. A new permanent Bureau of StatisticsChief,VictorH.Olmsted,wasappointedonJune16, 1906. In1907StateAgentswere located in45 different States and 17 traveling Field Agentswereinplace.Therewerecountycorrespondentsin2,800countiesreplyingdirectlytoWashington,D.C. By the end of 1907, the Crop ReportingBoard, for any specific report, consisted of theChiefof theBureauas theChairpersonand fourothermembersselectedfromallstatisticians,Agents(bothStateandField),andofficialsoftheBureau.Board members always did their own review be-forerecommendationswerecomparedamongthemembersoftheCRB.In1907,atotalof18meet-ingsoftheCRBwereheldwithparticipationbysixFieldAgentsandeightStateAgents. Olmsted took a leave of absence to assisttheCensusBureauwithaspecialpopulationcen-susprojectandC.C.ClarkservedasActingBureauChiefformuchof1908.Bytheendof1909,therewere 19 Field Agents, 44 State Agents, 135,000voluntary county reporters, 33,000 voluntarytownshipreporters,and25,000individualfarmercorrespondents.ThestandardCRBmake-uphadtheBureauChiefchairthemeetingswithpartici-pationby theAssistantChief, oneBureau expertstatistician,andtwoFieldorStateAgents.

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Modifications Following Establishment of the Crop Reporting Board (CRB)

The previous paragraphs illustrate thatmanyphysicalsecurityproceduresusedtodaywereinplaceintheearly1900s.TherewereslightshiftsintheproceduresforCropReportingBoardmake-upinthefirstfewyearsafter1905.Someofthose

There were some interesting references intheAnnualSummaryincludedinthe1911CropReporter.TospeeduptabulationoflargesurveysinWashington,D.C.,asystemofCropReportingDistricts(often8-10districtsperstate)wascreatedfor each State. After the proof of concept, dataweresummarizedbydistrictratherthanbycoun-ty,which greatly reduced the amountofdetailedweightingneeded togetState indications. Therewas alsomention that some2,582questionshadbeen asked of the correspondents in 1910, com-pared to 483 in 1905. However, the overall re-sponseratein1910was60.5percent,comparedto49.4percentin1905.

USDAalsoexpandedduringthisperiod;addition-alcommoditieswereincludedintraditionalreportsaswellasnewdataseries. In1913,NatMurray,whohadbeenservingasAssociateChiefofthestatisticsunit,wasaskedforrecommendationsforimprovingthestatisticalprocedures.Keyamonghisrecommendationswastoshiftfrompart-timetofull-timeemployeesserv-ingallStatesandtoprovidemoreprestigetotheroleofStateAgentsbycreatingStateStatisticalOf-fices.Bothrecommendationswereadopted,withtheStateStatisticalAgentpositionsnowbeingcov-eredunderCivilServiceprovisions.AnagentwasnamedformostStatesbutsingleofficeswerecre-atedtoservethesixNewEnglandStates,MarylandandDelaware,andUtahandNevada. Funding was received for agents’ salariesbutnotforrentingofficespace.TheStateStatisti-calOfficesduringthiserawerelocatedinthelivingspaceoftheStateAgents.Similarly,therewasnobudgetforhiringofficestaffsoagentsoftenreliedonfamilymembersforassistanceinaddressingandmailing inquiries. Theagents alsodid theirowneditingandsummarization. TheestablishmentoftheStateOfficesandfull-time State Agents in 1914 was particularlytimelysincethereweremanyincreasedrequestsforagriculturalstatisticsduringtheperiodofprepara-tionbefore theUnitedStates enteredWorldWarIin1917.Afterthewar,demandsforagriculturalstatistics again increased when the United StatesprovidedaidintheformoffoodshipmentstoEu-rope.Thenewstatisticalreportsincludedestimatesoftheproductionofseveralvegetables,cottonpro-duction forecasts during the growing season, fer-tilizerutilization, livestockinventories,andpricesandwagedata.Manyoftheseeffortsledtoongo-ingdata series thatwereretainedas standard fea-turesoftheBureau. Even with the tight budget constraints,therewasaconcertedefforttoutilizesimilarprac-ticesinallStates.Oneoftheimportantmechanismsformaking improvementswasa1917conferenceof Bureau employees. Many of the experiencedagentswerecalledupontodiscusstheirsuggestionsforhandlingvariousresponsibilities.

The CRB in March 1910. Pictured (L to R): Agricul-tural Statistician for Washington George K. Holmes, State Statistical Agent for Indiana Duncan, Chief of the Bureau Victor Olmsted, Statistical Field Agent for Bryantown, Md., John J. Darg, and Principal Statistician for Washington Nat C. Murray. Photo-graph from Special Collections, National Agricul-tural Library.

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Expansion and Decentralization from 1910 through 1930

Theerafrom1910to1920wasimportantas far as shaping the work and structure of agri-cultural statistics within USDA. State StatisticalOfficeswithfull-timeemployeeswereestablished.The unique State/Federal cooperative agreementsthathavebeensoimportantforprovidingefficient,unduplicated,statisticalservicetoagricultureorigi-natedin1917.Thescopeofstatisticscoveredby

Onemajoradvantageofthenewfull-timepositionswastheopportunitytoworkcloselywithStateofficialsalsoinvolvedwithcollectionofagri-culturalstatistics.ManyStateshadlongestablished“state farm census” programs—often carried outbyassessors’offices. Theseprogramsvaried fromStatetoStateintermsofcoverage,definitions,andprocedures.In1917inWisconsin,Commission-erofAgricultureAlanNorgood,andStateAgentWilliam F. Callander signed an agreement to es-tablishthefirstcooperativecropreportingservicein the United States. This type of cooperationwas endorsed by the organization now know astheNationalAssociationofStateDepartmentsofAgriculture andmanyotherStates soon followedWisconsin’slead. Oneof themostnoticeableadvantagesofthestate/Federalcooperationwasavoidingtwosetsof statistics for the same state. Other significantbenefitswerethepoolingofstaffing,space,andfi-nancialresourcesandthepossibilityofexpandingthetotalcoverageofstatisticssinceduplicativedatacollectionswereeliminated. State office structure continued to evolveandexpandduringthe1920s.Bythemiddleofthatdecadethetownshipandcountyreporterlistsweremergedintoanexpandedtownshiplistofindividu-alswhorespondedtomonthlyquestionnairesfromWashington. Starting in 1927 the responsibilityforthetownshiplistswasgraduallyturnedovertothestatefieldoffices.By1933thefieldofficeswereresponsibleformailingandreceivingallinquiries.Bythistime,reportingofpriceshadshiftedtomid-monthandmostpriceswerecollectedfromdealersandmerchants.Withthestateofficesinvolvedinthedatacollection,andspreadingtheworkloadout,itwaspossibletodomoreanalyses.Forexample,acreagequestionnairesusuallyaskedindividualstoreporthowmanyacresofeachcropweregoingtobe grown during the survey year, along with theactualacresforthepreviousyears.Thisallowedthecalculationofcurrenttohistoricalratiosofchange.Fieldofficescouldalsomatchupquestionnairesfortheindividualswhoreportedthepreviousyearandcalculate a current-to-current ratio indication ofchange.

Impacts of the Great Depression on Agricultural Statistics

A farmer reviews his accounts in April 1936.

Aprogramwasimplementednearlyimme-diatelytoplowupnearlyone-quarterofthecottonacreage planted in 1933. Plans were made for awheatallotmentprogram,whichwouldpayfarm-erstoreducetheplantedacreagein1934and1935.Oneofthemostambitiousprogramswastheefforttocontroltheproductionofhogsandcorn.Hogprices were already at extremely low levels whenthe AAA was established and large supplies were

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Bytheendofthe1920s–amoredetailedlivestockstatisticsprogramwasinplace.Monthlyegg and milk production were estimated, alongwithperiodicinformationonhogproductionandlambproduction. All estimateswere at the stateand national level only. However, this wouldchange as the country dealt with the severe eco-nomicconditionsoftheGreatDepression.Moneywasextremelytightandpricesofagriculturalcom-moditieswereatverylowlevels.In1933therewasalso thepossibilityofproducing surpluses,whichwoulddriveprices even lower. InMayof1933,Congresspassed theAgriculturalAdjustmentActthat established the Agricultural Adjustment Ad-ministration (AAA) to develop programs to bal-ance out supplies of agricultural products and toimprovecommodityprices.

expectedtocometomarketinthefallandwinterof1933. Morethan6millionpigsand200,000sowswerepurchasedandslaughteredtoreducethefuturesupplies,withmostofthemeatgoingintoreliefefforts. Tocontrolsuppliesin1934and1935,pro-ducers were offered favorable loans for reducingproduction. This required county-level informa-tiononusual cornacreages,potential cornyieldsperacre,andusualproductionofhogs.TheDivi-sion of Crop and Livestock Estimates was calledupontoanalyzeallavailabledataandtocreatethenecessarycountyestimates.Ninety-twojuniorstat-isticianswerehired for stateoffices tohandle theaddedworkload,oneofthelargeststaffingincreas-eseverforUSDAstatistics.TheCRBdidnotmeettoapproveallnewcountyestimatesbutdidissueinstructionstobefollowedincreatingthem.

theoperationalnamesof the statistics unit. An-other significant change took place on April 3,1961,whentheStatisticalReportingService(SRS)andtheEconomicResearchService(ERS)werees-tablishedasseparateUSDAagencies. TheactionestablishedSRSwithoneclearlydefinedmission—collection and dissemination of basic agriculturalstatistics. Dr.HarryTreloganwasnamedasthefirstSRSAdministrator.Dr.Treloganspentsometimeas a college professor following his Ph.D. fromtheUniversityofMinnesota andwasparticularlyknownforhisworkinmarketingeconomics.Hespentmostofthe1940sand1950sservinginvari-ousUSDApositions,includingDivisionChiefintheWar Food Administration. At the time SRSwas founded, he was serving as an Assistant Ad-ministrator in theAgriculturalMarketingServiceandwaswellawareof the statisticalprogrambuthadnotworkedwiththestatisticsfunctionsthem-selves. All later Administrators have come fromwithin theAgencywithbroadvarietiesofexperi-ence. Dr.Treloganwasnota“handson”admin-istratorasfarasthedetailsofCRBoperation.Hedevotedmuchofhisenergyandeffortstoestablish-ingtheWashingtonDataProcessingCenterwithinSRS.However,heexpressedhisvisionforSRSina1962statement:“Toservethewholespectrumofusers, the informationmust be accurate, reliable,complete,andtimely.” At the state level, SRS was still often re-ferredtoastheCropReportingServiceortheCropandLivestockReportingService,dependingonthetraditional labels that had been used. The CRBwasevenmoreclearlydefinedthaneverasa“func-tion”ofSRSandallreportswerelabeledasbeingreleasedbytheCropReportingBoard. TheStatisticalReportingServicenamebe-came familiar to most people in agriculture butwasoftencriticizedasconfusing.Itdidnotspecifywhattypesofstatisticswerecovered,unlessitwasreferred to as the Statistical Reporting Service oftheU.S.DepartmentofAgriculture. Therewerealsoconcernsabouttheterm“Reporting”notindi-catingthefullrangeofstatisticalproceduresbeingconducted.

Theseveredroughtconditionsof1934and1936ledtothecreationoftheFederalCropInsur-ance Corporation to lessen the economic impactofpoorcropconditionsonfarmers.Onceagain,additionalcountyestimateswererequestedandtheagency has continued to create county estimateseversince.

Founding of the Statistical Reporting Service

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Drought conditions and blowing soil buried ma-chinery on a farm in South Dakota in May 1936.

EarliersectionsdiscussedchangesthattookplaceinthestatisticalfunctionwithinUSDAand

Therewereoftencallsforchangingor“im-proving”theAgencyname.Thatfinallycameaboutin1986whentheAgencynamewaschangedtotheNational Agricultural Statistics Service and eachstate office began to be referred to as the [State]AgriculturalStatisticsService. Thatmeant thata

numberof stateacronymsduplicatedother statesbutitdidestablishaclosertiebetweenthenationaland state organization names. At this time, theCropReportingBoardwasalsorenamedtheAgri-culturalStatisticsBoard(ASB).

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Chapter 3

TECHNOLOGY CHANGES AND ADVANCEMENTS

Impacts of the Modern Era of Statistical Techniques I

The“modern”eraofUSDAstatistics, theshift toprobability sampling, isusuallymeasuredfrom 1957. In response to questions and con-cerns from the U.S. Congress in the early 1950saboutthequalityofcertainforecastsandestimates,fundingwasobtainedstarting in1954toexploreimproved methodologies. A long-range plan toimplementimprovedprocedureswaspresentedtoCongressinFebruary1957.Thatplanofonly15pagesincludedfourmajorprojects,simplyreferredtoasA,B,C,andD. Project A called for the implementationofareaframe-basedprobabilityestimatesforcropacreages through interviewsof producers on ran-domlyselectedsegmentsofland.Italsoproposedtoimproveyieldforecastsandestimatesbyselect-ingrandomfieldsfromtheareaframesurveyandmakingfieldcountsandmeasurementsduringthe

growingseason.Researchstudieswerealreadyun-derwayonbothareaframesamplingandobjectiveyield techniques and the Congressional fundingadvancedthetestingandpilotwork.

A USDA official reviews an area frame map with a farmer in Arkansas, 1951.

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By 1964 the Agency had completed test-ing and had increased area frame sample sizes tooperationallevelsforthe48contiguousstates.Theprocesscompletelychangedoperationsinthestateofficessincetheyneededtohireandtrainpart-timeenumeratorsfortheJuneandDecemberareaframesurveys and for objective yield surveys in thosestateswithsignificantacreages.Becauseareaframesamplingworksbestformajorcrops,thetraditionalmailsurveyswerecontinuedtoprovideindicationsforallcropsandforcountyestimatesattheendoftheseason.

Becauseoftherudimentarycomputercapa-bilitiesavailablearound1960,summaryproceduresforthenewsurveysshiftedtoWashington,muchliketheprocessof50to60yearsearlier.Processingthe 1964 June Enumerative Survey required 360hoursofrunningtimeonanIBM7074computer.Headquartersstaffmemberswereassignedtoshiftsinordertodevote24hoursadaytothenecessarydataentryandcomputermaintenanceneedsofthislargeprocessingeffort. Analysis procedures changed in the statesand for theCRB. Stateshad two setsof indica-tions. One set had statistical precision measuresforthedirectexpansionandratioindicationsbutlimitedhistory(whiletherewasalonghistoryforthetraditionalsurveys).Thebiggestimpactofthenew statistical tools was on the CRB. Since thegreatest statisticalprecisionofprobability surveysisachievedatthehighest(U.S.)summarylevel,by1965 the CRB shifted to a “national board” ap-proach. In a national board, the CRB membersconcentratedfirstonexaminingall indicationsat

the U.S. level and then examined the summaryindications for specific regions made up of com-binations of states. The CRB, in its face-to-facemeeting,didnotadoptfinalestimatesforallstates.Instead, it adopted target totals for the U.S. andeach region. Once thatwasdone, the commod-itystatisticianassignedtothespecificcommodity,theFieldCropsSectionHead,andprobablyoneofthefieldofficepeopleassistingwiththatreportper-formedanintensivereviewandfinalizedthestateestimatesinlinewiththeU.S.andregionaltargets,withinrounding. ThenewprobabilitysurveyproceduresledtoanotherchangeintheCRBoperations.Becauseofthedetailedsamplingproceduresandthemulti-tudeofnewestimatesfromtheprobabilitysurveys,itwasprudent to always assign amemberof thestatisticalmethodologystafftotheCRBforitsde-liberations.

An IBM machine.

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Impacts of the Modern Era of Statistical Techniques II

The area frame approach was extremelysuccessfulformeasuringtotallandinfarms,num-bersoffarms,andacreagesofmajorcrops.Listsofextremely large livestock operations in each statenormallysupplementedtheareaframe.Estimateswere created for the sum of those operators andtheirlivestockinformationwasexcludedfromtheareaframeestimatesiftheydidfallwithinanareaframe segment. That extreme operation concepthelpedsomewhatbuttheareaframeapproachstillwasnoteffectiveformeasuringlivestocknumbersand minor crop acreages. Because of concernsaboutlivestockestimates,newCongressionalfund-ingwasreceivedintheearly1970stoimplementmultiple frame survey techniques. The multipleframeapproachwasalist-samplingframeoffarmoperationswithasmuchattribute informationaspossibleabouteachoperation.Informationinclud-edsizeoflivestockoperations,totalfarmincome,andacreagesofspecialtycrops.Thelist-samplingframe couldbe stratified andprobability selectedsamplesdrawn.Theareaframesamplesstillpro-videdan independent estimateof state totalsbutnowtheareaframealsoprovidedanindicationof

listcompletenessbymatchingthearea frameop-erationnamesagainstthefulllist. Intheearly1980s,NASSbegandevelopingprocedures forcomputer-assisted telephone inter-views(CATI).CATIalloweddatatobecollectedbytelephoneinsteadofbypersonalvisit,andthesurveyresultswereautomaticallycapturedinsteadofneedingadditionallistinganddataentryopera-tions. During the1980s themultiple frameem-phasis remainedprimarilyon improvinghogandcattleinventoryestimates. By1990theprobabilitysamplingapproachwasimplementedforcropyields.YieldsduringthegrowingseasonhadbeenbasedonresponsestothemonthlyFarmReportsurvey,whichwasanongo-ingpanelofindividualswhowerewillingtoreporteachmonthaboutprobableyieldsintheirvicinity.The improved approach conducted a large prob-ability selected survey in June to measure actualplantings.SamplesofindividualsreportingcropsofinterestinJunewerethenselectedformonthlyyieldtelephonecalls intimefor theAugust,Sep-tember,October,andNovemberCropProductionreports. The new probability crop yield surveys,conducted largely by telephone, enabled NASSstate offices to collect and summarize data morequickly.Asaresult,NASSshiftedthesurveydatessothatdatacollectionwascenteredonthefirstofeach month, instead of the former approach inwhichalmostallrespondentshadtosubmittheirinformationbeforethefirstofthemonthtoallowformailtoreachthestateoffices. One new consideration for making esti-mates under the multiple frame survey approachwas the impact of “outliers,” particularly in live-stock surveys. Just as a corn plant growing in asoybean field would be considered to be a weed,anoutlier is a correct reportbut it isunexpectedwithinthestratuminwhichthereportingunitwasselected.Anexampleofthemostcommontypeofoutlierisafeedlotoperationthathasbeenoperat-ingatafairlylowlevelandwasselectedasamem-berofasmallsizestratum.Ifthefeedlothadin-creaseditscapacityinthepastyearortwoandnowhadseveraltimesmorecattlethanexpectedinthatstratum,thatreportwouldbeoutofplace.Such

operationsskewtheresultsforthespecificstratumandperhapsfortheentirestate.Outliersaretobeexpectedandusually are acceptedat thenationallevel.(Therearealwaysoperationsincreasinganddecreasingtheirsizeacrossthecountry.)However,thesurveyindicationsforsomestateswouldnotbeacceptableas stateestimates. ThisbecameanewpartoftheBoardprocess—determininghowtoal-locateor“smooth”theimpactoftheoutliersinset-tingfinalestimates.Anumberofapproacheswereimplementedinordertomakethedecisionprocessasconsistentaspossible. OneotherimpactofthenewemphasisonprobabilitysamplingandestimationwastoexpandtheCRBmembershipforlivestockinventoryandcropacreageandyieldreports.OnerepresentativeoftheSurveyAdministrationSectiontakespartasamemberoftheBoardtodiscussanyspecialsam-plingandsurveyoperationfactorsthatmighthaveimpactedsurveyresults.

USDA officials record receipt of the envelopes as soon as they are retrieved from the locked safe.

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From Plastic Rulers to Interactive Tools

Duringmostof thefirst100yearsof theCropReportingBoard,thetoolsavailabletoAgen-cyanalystswereratherbasic,comparedwithpres-entdayoptions.Formostofthatperiod,photo-copy technology was not available and electroniccommunicationandelectronic spreadsheet analy-ses were unheard of. Agency personnel were al-wayscreativeinadaptingavailabletechnologiestoprovidethemostconsistent,accurateanalysisandestimationprocedures. Becausephotocopieswerenotfeasible,theAgencyhadtomailoriginaldocumentsbackand

forth. A shuttle sheet approach was commonlyused, in which the documents, with all past andcurrentindications,wouldbetransmittedinspecialhandlingenvelopes(withprecautionsthatauthen-ticatedthemailingandthefactthattheenvelopeshadnotbeenopenedbeforereceipt).Indicationsandrecordsofpastrecommendationsandestimatesweremeticulouslyenteredininkinofficialrecordbooksateachendoftheprocess.

When the CRB met on a particular esti-mate,suchascropacreage,therewasonlyonesetofmaterialsforeachstate.Theremightbefourorfive sheets ofpaper for each state, includingpastindications and estimates, present indications,commentsfromthestateoffice,andgraphswhichdisplayedpastrelationships.TofacilitatetheworkoftheBoard,asimpleapproach,oftenreferredtoas“TheBox,”wasused.Awoodenbox,whichwasslightlylowerinheightthanfilefolders,wascreatedwithdividerswhichwouldholdthefoldersuprightforeachstate.Theindividualslotswereidentifiedbystate.EachBoardmemberwouldselectafolder,reviewallcontents,enterhisjudgmentsonasum-marysheet,andthenreturnthefoldertothecor-rectslotandrepeattheprocessforeachstate. Using“TheBox”didallowCRBreviewstoproceed relatively efficiently. However, it usuallyturnedoutthattwoBoardmemberswerewaitingonthesamestate,aftereveryoneelsehadfinished.If therewasadelay,otherBoardmembersmight

usetheopportunitytore-examinematerialsforse-lectedstates.Theusualprocesswastoreturntheirindividual recommendation sheets to the Chair,who would compile the matrix of recommenda-tions.Ifthereseemedtobedifferencesofopinionson aparticular state, theChairmight call for allmemberstore-examinethosematerials. Since automated charting and printingcapabilitieswerenotavailable,thegraphsanddis-playsfortheBoardwerecreatedbyhand.Graphsincludedpastindicationsandestimatesbutnocur-rentinformation.Typically,thefirstBoardmem-berreviewingastatemadeanotationof thecur-rent indication as a small arrowhead towards thebottomof thegraph. Itwasoften important forBoardmembersto“read”outsomebiasinmakingtheir recommendations. An exampleofbiaswasthedocumentedfactthatproducerswhohadonlylivestockandpastureontheiroperationswerelesslikely to return crop acreage questionnaires thanproducersofrowcrops. Beforerotarycalculatorsmademathemati-calregressioncalculationsmorefeasible,theanaly-sis approach commonlyused involved examiningpast relationships and approximating the correctrelationshipbetweenindicationsandestimatesbyusingaclearplastic“ruler.”Theplasticstrips,whichwere about1 inchwide,didnothaveanymark-ings on thembutdidhave a straight line etchedinthemiddlerunningfromoneendtotheother.TheBoardmemberwouldlaytheruleracrossthegraph and shift it until he or she felt the etched

“The Box” contained folders for each state and was labeled with the commodity and state names on the outside.

A statistician returns his recommendations to the Chair of the Board, who compiles the recommenda-tions.

14

linebestrepresentedthebestrelationshipbetweenindicationsandestimates. Heorshewouldthensee where the current indication would intersectthatlineandlooktothesideaxistodeterminetheactualvaluetorecommend. NASS offices were also ingenious in de-velopingqualitycontrolprocedures. In theearly1900sthemonthlyquestionnaireaskedforcondi-tion of a number of crops and the answers werenicelyarrayedinasinglerowacrossthepage.Onereference from that time period implied that thestatistical assistants (who, interestingly, were re-ferred to as “skilled computers”) overlapped theformsforacountyordistricttoexposethelinesofanswers. In thismanner, theycouldquicklyadddown to subtotals for that set of questionnaires.Thesubtotalsheetswereaddedtodistrictandstatetotalsandaverages. As survey content changed and fuller ex-planations were needed for specific questions,Agency questionnaires mainly became rows ofquestionswiththeanswercellsalongtherightcol-umnoftheform.Someonehadtheexcellentideaofholdingquestionnairesinplaceforcalculationsthroughaprocessthatcametobeknownas“pegstripping.”(Whilehedidn’tseemtobetheorigi-natorof the approach,GlennSimpson,whowastheCRBSecretaryinthemid-1950s,pushedforexperimentationinordertoreducetheburdenofhandtabulation.)Thequestionnaireswereprintedonpaperthathadaseriesofpreciselydeterminedholesacrossthetop.Returnedquestionnairesweresorted by county and placed on metal bars con-

tainingarowofshortpegs,ina“shingled”fashionwithjusttheanswercellsshowing.Thelastques-tionnaireinlinebecameasummarypageforthatset of questionnaires. The summary pages oftenwereprintedinaseparatecolortomakeiteasiertodistinguishthem.Thequestionnaireswereheldinplacebyanotherlongbarwhichsnappedoverthepegs,holdingeverythingtightlyinalignment.Formajorsurveys,largenumbersofthesepegstripsofcompletedquestionnaireswereneededandagoodcontrolsystemwasinplaceforhowmanypegstripswereneededforeachcounty.Questionnaireswerenotremovedfromtheirstripuntilcountshadbeenverifiedbyasecondperson. The addition of photocopiers and earlycomputer technologymade itpossible toprovideeachBoardmemberwithhis/herowncopiesofre-view materials and to actually plot regression re-lationships on Board materials. Members couldenterthenewindicationintoaformulaanddeter-minethemodeledestimate,insteadofestimatingitwiththeplasticruler. In the1980s analysis ofmanydata seriesindicated that a regression analysis approach wasoftenmisleading. Reasons for this included thatregression could be overly influenced by one ex-tremelygoodorbadyear in the caseofyieldsormight not provide much analysis power if mostdatapointswereclosetogetherfromyeartoyear.Analysisshiftedtoatimeseriesapproach—withad-ditionalregressionanalysesformoreinformation.

The clear plastic “rulers” used actually had no mark-ings or guides.

A respondent completes a survey for the January 1, 1965, Grain Stocks Report. Each survey had a pre-cise line of holes across the top that was used during tabulation.

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Atimeseries,orcomparisontable,approachcreat-eddataarraysofindicationsandfinalestimatesforpastdataperiods(usually10ormore).Thediffer-ence(eitherabsoluteorpercentage,dependingonthetypeofdataitem)wascalculatedanddisplayedfor each timeperiod, alongwith the averagedif-ference.Addingtheaveragedifferencetothecur-rentsurveyindicationprovidedarecommendationfor eachdata source. Analysts couldalso see theimpactofunusualyearsinthedatasetandadjusttheirconclusions,ifnecessary. Most processes today are automated forstateoffices,aswellasfortheAgriculturalStatisticsBoard (ASB), formerly known asCRB. Currentindicationsarebroughtintothecomparisontablespreadsheetsandtheadjustedindicationsarevis-ibleonthecomputerscreen.MostNASSsystems

willalsoallowanalysts toviewandupdatechartsandgraphsaswellasnumericdatatables.Becauseofthenewtools,Boardmemberscanspendmoretimelookingatinterrelationshipsinthedataratherthanhavingtoworryaboutenteringnumbersandcalculatingbyhand.

Staff prepare “release copies” of the June 1947 crop report on mimeograph machines set up inside the lockup area.

An official uses a comptometer to assist with the computations and tabulations for the June 1947 crop report.

16

Entering the Electronic Era

NASSprides itself inbeingcustomerori-entedandprovidingthemostappropriatedeliveryofitsproducts.However,itpurposelydelayedof-feringelectronicaccesstoitsreportswhenthatcapabilityfirstbecamefeasible.Anumberofuni-versities and private organizations were initiallyinterested in offering electronic access to NASSreports. However, each of them wanted files insomewhat different formats. NASS felt that of-feringfilestoanyoneoftheorganizationswouldobligatetheagencytoprovidefilestoeachoftheothers,whichwouldrequireconsiderabletimeandpersonnelresources.NASSrefusedtoprovidefilestoanyvendorsuntilsomestandardformatbecameavailable. The standard format requirement was re-solvedwhen theU.S.DepartmentofAgricultureannouncedacompetitivebiddingprocessforselect-inganelectronicdisseminationvendor.Thiswasarequirements contract, meaning that any USDAagencyseekingtoreleasedataelectronicallyneededtoprovidethosefilestotheselectedvendor.Italsoimposedstrictrequirementsonthecompetingbid-ders.Thewinningbidderhadtomakeelectronicfilesavailabletoothervenders(level1user)beforetheyprovideddatatotheirpayingcustomers(level2users). The new contract became known as theComputerizedInformationDisseminationSystem(CIDS).Duringthefirstyearofoperationagen-cies were required to issue identical formats forprintedandelectronicmedia.Sincemostelectron-icdatausersatthetimehadlimitedcapabilityincomputersandprinters,downloadingandprintingreportswastimeconsuming.Datatablelinesoftenwrappedtomultiplelinesoncustomers’printers. Electronic data users were quickly frus-tratedwiththeslownessandservicequality.NASS

took the complaints to heart and redesigned itsprintedreports.Forexample,thesignatureCropProduction report, the most requested electronicreport,hada traditional format that included, inorder,highlights,tableofcontents,detailednarra-tivewrite-ups,summarydatatables,andcommod-itydatatables.Datausersprimarilyinterestedinthecornorsoybeansdatatablesmightneedtovieworprintsome30pagesbeforetheygottotheinfor-mationtheywereseeking. SincealternativeformatscouldnotbeusedforCIDS,NASS changed theprinted tables andnarratives tonot exceedmore than79 charactersper line. The report order was rearranged to in-clude highlights, detailed data tables, summarytables,narratives,andindex.Thus,alluserscouldmore quickly access the data tables. Instead offorcingelectronicuserstosufferthroughthetradi-tionalformats,NASSessentiallyadoptedtheelec-tronicversionasthedefactostandardforwrittenpublications.

NASScustomerswereveryappreciativeoftheiractions,but theprocesswas stillquite slow,particularlyifauserwantedtoaccessboththede-tailedtablesandthenarrativesforthesamecom-moditiesorwasprimarilyinterestedinthesumma-ry tables. Usersweredisappointedwith agenciesthatdidnotmaketheadjustmentsthatNASSdid. WhentheCIDScontractwasre-negotiat-ed,NASSintroducedthecapabilityofsegmentingtheelectronicversionreports–aslongastheentirereportwasstillavailable.Bysegmentingthedatatables,userscouldselectsmallportionsofthere-portandgreatlyreducetheiraccesstimeandprint-ingcosts. Even with modifications, the CIDS con-tractprovidedonlyrudimentaryservice.However,itprovidedanopportunityfordatauserstoreceivefasteraccesstodatasetsthanwaitingformailedorfaxedcopies.ItalsoprovidedastopgapuntiltheemergingInternetcapabilitybecamemorewidelyavailable.

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Chapter 4

GOVERNING LAWS AND PROCESSES

Laws Concerning the Agency and the CRB

NASS and its predecessor organizationshavebenefitedhistoricallybythefactthattheirac-tionshavenotbeenoverlyspecifiedinstatutes.TheAgencyhasnormallybeenabletoadjusttochangesindatauserneedsandpreferencesbecausereportdetails and timingwerenot locked in statutorily.However,theAgencyhasalsobenefitedgreatlybyafewspecificlawsonconfidentialityanddisclosureavoidance. It alsobenefited from statistics beingmentioned as a duty of the Secretary of Agricul-tureintheMay15,1862Act,signedbyPresidentAbrahamLincoln,thatestablishedtheDepartment(then Bureau) of Agriculture and the position ofSecretary (originally, Commissioner) of Agricul-ture. Sincetherewerenoinsidertradingprohi-bitionsinplaceatthetimeofthecurtainincidentin 1905, there were efforts, starting in 1905, to

providea legalbasis forpenalties. Twonewstat-uteswereimplementedasofMarch4,1909.Thefirst,codifiedas18UnitedStatesCode(USC)Sec.1902,dealswiththe“disclosureofcropinforma-tion and speculation thereon.” It states that any“…officer,employeeorpersonworkingfororonbehalf of the United States…” is subject to finesorimprisonmentorbothiftheydivulgeanyinfor-mationaheadofascheduledrelease.(Theoriginalwordingspecifiedafineofnomorethan$10,000butthatlimitwasremovedin1994.) The second statute enacted in 1909, 18USCSec.2072,dealswith“falsecropreports.”Itcallsforpenaltiesoffines,imprisonment,orbothifagovernmentofficeroremployee“…knowinglycompilesforissuance,orissues,anyfalsestatisticsorinformationasareportoftheUnitedStates….”The originally stated maximum fine was $5,000

18

butthatlimitwasalsoremovedin1994. Another significant statute was enactedonMarch4,1909.Codifiedas7USCSec.411a,it dealswith “monthly crop reports; contents; is-suance; approval by Secretary of Agriculture.” Itspecifiesthatthemonthlycropreport“…shallbeprintedanddistributedonorbeforethetwelfthdayofeachmonth….”Italsostates“…itshallbesub-mittedtoandofficiallyapprovedbytheSecretaryofAgriculture,beforebeing issuedorpublished.”Alateract, in1924,establishedtheeighthofthemonthastheprescribeddateforissuingmonthlycotton crop reports. A modification in 1972 al-lowed cotton reports to be included with othercropsinthemonthlyCropProductionreportandtheconceptsfromthetwostatuteswereinformallycombinedtosettheallowablereleasedatesforthemonthly Crop Production report to fall betweenthe8thand12thofeachmonth. In the late19thandearly20thcenturies,cottonwasdefinitelythemostprominentandpolit-icallysensitivecropintheUnitedStates.Referencewasmadeearlier to theHouseofRepresentativesHearingof1904onthelevelofcottonestimates.Similarconcernsandcomplaintssurfacedeveryfewyearswheneveronesideoftheindustryoranotherwasupsetwiththeimpactofstatisticalreportsonpricesandincome. Thehighlevelofoversightofcottonstatis-ticsledtoanumberofspecificstatutes.In1912acottonlawwaspassed,stipulatingthattheJuly1Acreagereport,whichpublishedtheplantedacresfor other crops, should show the cotton acres incultivationonthatdate.Theconceptwasconfus-ingtoreportersbutitillustratestheconcerninthecottonindustrythatnoUSDAreportshouldleadtoanoverestimateofthecroppotential.Thelawremained in place until it was amended on May29,1958,tochangefromreportingcottonacresincultivation to reporting cotton acres planted andremovetheconfusionofhavingtwodifferentcon-ceptsintheAcreagereport. The classic case of the impact of specificcottonlegislationontheoperationsoftheAgencywasthecottoncropreportslawenactedonMay3,1924.Thelaw(codifiedas7USCSec.475)hadmanyfacets,suchasspecifyingreleaseofUSDAre-

portsoncottoncondition,progress,andprobablenumber of bales to be produced simultaneouslywithcottonginningreportsbytheDepartmentofCommerce.Thereportsweretobereleasedat11a.m.onthe8thdayofeachmonthfromAugusttoDecember.Thebiggerimpactofthelawwasthere-quirementthattheCRBsforcottonproductionre-portshadtohavefiveormoremembers,including“…notlessthanthreeofwhichshallbesupervisoryfieldstatisticiansoftheDepartmentofAgriculturelocatedindifferentsectionsofthecotton-growingStates, experienced in estimating cotton produc-tion and who shall havefirst hand knowledge ofthe condition of the cotton crop based upon re-centfieldobservations….”Thelawfinishedbyre-quiringthatthemajorityoftheCRBmembersforcottonreports shallbe familiarwiththemethodsandpracticesofproducingcotton.Withthecom-municationtechniquesavailableinthemid-1920sitmighthavebeenparticularlyhelpfultohaverep-resentativesfromthevariouscotton-producingar-eas.However,laterinthecenturycommunicationsweregreatlyimprovedandthesurveyprocedures,indications,andStateofficeanalysisproceduresinplacemeantthattheCRBdidnotneedtodependsomuchonfirst-handknowledgeforeachreport.Nonetheless, Chairpersons and Secretaries of theCRB continued to name three Field Office rep-resentatives from cotton-producing states for theAugusttoDecemberreportsuntilthelawwasre-pealedonApril4,1996.

A farmer cultivates cotton on a farm during the Dust Bowl. CRB members were required to be familiar with techniques used to produce cotton. Photograph from USDA Natural Resources Conservation Ser-vice.

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ThestatutethatismostessentialforNASSoperations, Confidentiality of Information (USCSec. 2276), was not enacted until December 23,1985. This statute provides one of the strongestandmostinclusiveconfidentialityprotectionpro-visionsofanystatisticalorganization. It specifiesthatonlysummary-leveldata,whichwillnotallowidentificationofanyindividualororganization,canbereleased.ItqualifiesdatareportedtoNASSasimmunefrommandatorydisclosure in legalmat-tersandstatesthatcopiesofreportstoNASSkeptinrespondents’filesshallbeimmunefromsubpoe-naorotherlegalinquiries.

ThefirstAgriculturalSupplyandDemandEstimatesreportwasissuedonSeptember17,1973,and focused on U.S. supply, demand, and trade.The domestically based reports quickly became afixtureinthecommoditymarketinformationsys-temoftheUnitedStates,aswellasprovidingvalu-ableplanninganddecision-makinginformationtoUSDA. The World Agricultural Outlook Board(WAOB), originally named the World Food andAgriculturalOutlookandSituationBoard,wases-tablishedbytheSecretaryofAgricultureonJune3,1977,toassuretheconsistency,objectivity,reliabil-ity, and timelinessofUSDA’s economic situationandoutlookpublications. ReportNumber107,onOctober14,1980,was the first report entitled World AgriculturalSupplyandDemandEstimates(WASDE)andthefirstreporttoanalyzeandprovidebreakoutsfortheworld,U.S.,total foreign,majorexporters,majorimporters, and other categories. The reports didnotincludeanyindividualcountryestimates.TheWASDEreportsinterpretedtheavailableinforma-tion and projected the season average prices andcarryout stocks. WASDE Report 177, issued onJanuary11,1985,wasthefirstreporttoaddindi-vidualcountrydata.Forexample,Argentina,Aus-tralia,andCanadawere listedseparatelyasmajorexportersandChinaandtheformerSovietUnionwerelistedasmajorimporters. TheWAOBfunctionsthroughasystemofInteragency Commodity Estimating Committees(suchasoilseeds,cotton, feedgrains,etc.). Eachcommittee is chaired by aWAOB specialist whoconvenesmeetingsoftheknowledgeablespecialistsfromotherUSDAagenciesthathaverelevantpro-

Jerry Bange, WAOB Chairperson, provides a briefing during a 2005 lockup.20

Creation of the World Agricultural Out-look Board

In1973theUSDAmadeamajorimprove-ment in how commodity economics informationwashandledbyredefiningtherolesoftheOutlookandSituationBoard(OSB),whichreportedtotheAssistantSecretaryforEconomics.Theimpetusforthechangewasthefrustrationandembarrassmentassociatedwiththe1972cropyear.Agentswork-ing forRussiawere successful inquietlypurchas-inglargeportionsofthe1972graincropatlowerpricesthanextrademandfortheproductwarrant-ed.Thesepurchaseswerecommonlyreferredtoas“TheGreatGrainRobbery.” When the purchases were investigated, itturnedout thatmany individuals inUSDAwereawareofsomeofthepurchaseactivity.However,there was no mechanism at the time to compileand share information across agencies and vari-ousgovernmentprograms.ThisledtoaseriesofcongressionalhearingsonhowtoimproveUSDA’seconomicintelligencesystem. TheUSDAresponsewastocreateaprocesstobringallUSDAinformationtogetherforreview.TheOSBservedastheclearanceorganizationfortheinteragencycommodityestimationcommitteesthatwerechairedbytheAgriculturalStabilizationandConservationServicetoevaluateinformationregardinggovernmentprogramcrops.ThereviewsledtospecificUSDAreports:theWorldCropPro-duction report and the Agricultural Supply andDemandEstimatesreport.

gram, production, and trade information for thespecificcommodities.Thecommitteesuseawidevarietyofinformationsources,includingpublishedNASSdata,administrativedatafromothergovern-ment and tradeorganizations, foreign attaché re-ports,reportspublishedbyforeigncountries,travelreports,andweatherandsatellite-basedinterpreta-tions. TheWAOB, from its outset, applied Ag-riculturalStatisticsBoardsecurityproceduresandissueditsreportsfromlockupconditions.Atfirst,WAOBwaslocatedinadifferentpartoftheUSDASouthBuilding thanNASSand required itsownsecurityfacilitiesforitsdeliberations.Escortedbyaguard,WAOBanalystswouldtakethereportstotheASBreleaseroomjustbeforerelease.Byearly1982WAOBwas collocatedwithNASSand theASBstaffprovidedsecurityandlogisticalsupportforbothagencies. WASDEreportsweretypicallyissuedaftereachmajorNASSrelease,suchasCropProductionandGrainStocks.In1984anumberofdatausersexpressed concerns about “mixed messages” fromUSDA economic reports. Reference was madeparticularlytoJanuary1984whensomedatausersfelt theyreceivedone impressionfromtheNASSAnnualCropProductionreport,adifferentsignalfrom the subsequent WASDE report, and thenquitedifferentsignalsabout2weekslaterwhentheNASS Grain Stocks report and anotherWASDEwereissued.NASSandWAOBdecidedtocoordi-natetimingsothattheWASDEcouldbefinishedduringthelockupfortheCropProductionreportand both reports would be released at the sametime. Thischangewasmade for the January11,1985,reports. InDecember1984SecretaryofAgricultureJohnBlocknamedaBlueRibbonPanel to studythe timing and procedures that USDA agenciesusedforcommodity-relatedreports.Hisnewsre-

leasealsoannouncedthattimingwouldbechangedsothattheCropProductionandWASDEreportswerereleasedsimultaneouslyeachmonth. Thatpanel,headedbyDarrelGoodoftheUniversityofIllinoisatChampaign/Urbana,con-cludedthatUSDAdidnothavetoomanyreportsbuthadtoomanyreportdays.Theyrecommend-edthatNASSreleasetheCropProductionAnnualandGrainStocksreportsonthesamedateinJanu-ary.NASSwasalreadypursuingthepossibilityofshiftingthecornmarketingyearfromanOctober1starttoSeptember1,whichwouldfitinwellwithashiftofgrainstocksfromaJanuary1toDecem-ber1referencedate.Workproceededonmakingnecessary changes in surveys, issuing proper an-nouncements,andcreatingahistoricaldataseriesforthenewGrainStockssurveymonths.ThefinalchangeswereimplementedasofJanuary1987. Theco-releasearrangementmeantthatallinterestedpartieshadaccesstobothupdatedU.S.cropforecastsandtheeconomicinterpretationsatthesametime—andtheSecretaryofAgriculture’soffice did not need to attend lockup briefings 2daysinarow.ThischangewasparticularlyhelpfulinavoidingsituationsinwhichtheCropProduc-tionreportwasreleasedthelastworkingdayofaweekandtheWASDEwouldnotbeavailableuntilaftertheweekend. The co-release arrangement did requiremodifications on the part of both NASS andWAOB. The WAOB Interagency CommitteesneededtodomoreworkonpreparinglikelyU.S.productionscenarios—andtheirimpactsonworldsupplyand trade—aheadof the lockupday sincetherewaslesstimefordeliberationsinlockup.TheworkoftheCRBhadtostart2-3hoursearliertoallowtimefortheWAOBtoreviewthenewU.S.figuresandtofinishitsworkintimeforthe3p.m.release.

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Chapter 5

CURRENT PRACTICES AND PROCEDURES

Shifting from Day to Night

In 1986 the CRB was renamed the Ag-ricultural Statistics Board (ASB). This renamingcoincidedwiththerenamingoftheagencyastheNationalAgriculturalStatisticsService.Yearslater,inMay1994,oneofthemostsignificantchangesinASBdeliveryofstatisticalreportsoccurredwhenthe release of major crop-related reports shiftedfrom3p.m.to8:30a.m.Lockupperiodsforsomeofthosereportsnowstartedbeforemidnightinor-dertoenabletheBoardtocompleteallanalysisandpublicationoperations. Considerablereview,planning,anddebatewentintothefinaldecisiontoshifttomorningre-leases. AsmallgroupofdatauserscontactedtheSecretary of Agriculture asking for the change.TheycitedthefactthatmajorPrincipalEconomicIndicator reports of other Cabinet departmentswerealreadymorningreleases.Theyalsopointed

Reporters in the press room anxiously cross the line to retrieve copies of a report once the official Crop Reporting Board clock strikes 3 p.m.

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outthatUSDAdatareleasedat3p.m.wereusedfortradinginfuturesmarketsaroundtheworldbe-foreU.S.marketsopenedthenextmorning. Manymajorfarmandcommodityorgani-zationsinitiallyopposedtheproposalduetocon-cern that security might be compromised. Thiswasavalidconcernsincethe individualsrequest-ingthechangesuggestedthatNASSuseitsnormalestimating procedures and timing to prepare thereports but then secure the reports overnight formorningrelease(anapproachsimilartothatusedbyotherFederalGovernment statisticalorganiza-tions).However,NASSandtheWorldAgricultur-alOutlookBoardwouldnotagreetosuchashiftin security levels. Theyrespondedthat, if releasetimingwaschanged,theywouldcontinuetofinal-izemajorreportsunderlockupconditionsandre-leasethereportsfromlockup.Withthatassuranceof continued security,majororganizations agreedwithUSDAona1-yeartrialofmorningreleases. ThefirstmorningreleasewasonMay10,1994,andallmajorcropreleasestherestof1994wereat8:30a.m.,exceptforcotton-relatedinfor-mation.Maintainingtheafternooncottonreleaseswasduetoalegislativequirk.Earlierinthe20thcentury,cottonforecastswereissuedaboutthe8thofeachmonth,separatefromtheCropProductionreportwhichcontainedtheothermajorcropsduetoa specificcotton report law. When legislationwaspassedtoallowcottontobeaddedtotheCropProduction report, the amendment specified thatcottoninformationbereleasedat3p.m.Thattimeofdaywas listedsince itwas thetraditionalCropProductionreleasetime,althoughthegeneralCropReportlawdidnotspecifyatime. Cotton industry representatives were notapartytotheoriginalrequesttoshiftthetiming.Theywerenotnecessarilyopposedtotheshiftbutdidn’twanttobedrivenbygrainindustryconsid-erations. Therefore, NASS followed the cotton-specific law.Since the1994CropProduction re-leasecalendarhadalreadybeenannounced,NASSreleasedreportsat8:30a.m.,whichcontainedalltablesandnarrativesexcept forcotton. Ifcottonweretobeincludedforaparticularmonth,alockupwasreinstatedabout10a.m.andthecottonpor-tionofthereportwasfinishedundersecuredcon-

ditions.AnaccommodationwasmadetoallowtheWAOBcottoninteragencyestimatescommitteetoworkinNASSspacesotheWAOBworkspacedidnotneedtobesecuredduringtheday.At3p.m.thefullCropProductionreportwasreleased.ThisAdouble duty@ approach required a number ofchangesinlogisticsandcarefulattentiontowhichindividualswereneededatparticulartimesofdaytocompleteall analysis, composition,andreleaseprocedures.Most individualswhoworkedontheovernightportionwereabletogohomebeforethe10a.m.lockupwasinitiated,buttheChairpersonandSecretaryoftheASBendedupworkingbothoftheback-to-backlockupseachmonth. Fortheyear1995,NASSshiftedtheorderof the reports. A shorter lockup was used to is-sue the cotton data at 3 p.m. one day and thenanovernightlockupwasimplementedwiththefullreportcomingoutat8:30a.m.thenextday.Thisminimized the numbers of pages that had to beprintedandavoided someonepickingupaCropProduction release that looked complete but wasmissingthecottondata.Bythethirdyear,thelawspecifying3p.m.hadbeenchangedandnospecialaccommodationswereneeded.

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The Present Board Concept and Types of Boards

Muchofthisstoryhasfocusedonthefulllockups with all outside communications cut offandanarmedguardonduty.Thoseproceduresforthemostmarket-sensitivereportsarecriticallyim-portant.However,NASSpracticesstrongsecurityproceduresforalloperationsandallreportsthatareissued.Theproceduresandthelevelsofsecurityareadapteddependingonthetimethatisrequiredtocompleteeachreportandthetypesofindividualsinvolved. OnepurposeoftheASBprocess,inaddi-tiontopreservingsecurity,istoensureaccuracyincompilingand interpreting survey results and in-dications.TheBoardapproachofhavingasecondlevelofreviewforallindicationsandrecommenda-tionsisjustasimportanttodayasitwas100yearsago.Infact,acasemightbemadethatthesecondreview isnowevenmore important. In1905all

calculationsweremadebyarelativelysmallgroupofskilledstatisticalassistants.Withtoday’sspread-sheetsandtheabundanceofdifferentsurveyswithrelativelysmallsamplesizes,statisticiansoftenen-tertheirowndata.Itisnecessarytohaveaninde-pendentreviewtouncoverentryerrorsnotinitiallyrecognized. Since NASS field offices evaluate surveydataand formulate initial recommendations, it isclear that theStateoffices areperforming a criti-cal Board function. Many offices even parallelthe Board process by having State mini-Boardsin which multiple staff members meet to reviewthe indications for themost importantcommod-ityrecommendationstobesentinforASBaction.ThisisanexcellenttrainingopportunityfornewerstaffmemberstoseefirsthandhowtheprocesswillworklaterinWashington.ReadersneedtorealizethateachStateofficehasaccessonlytotheirdataandindicationssotheyarenotpreviewingtheac-tualNationalBoardresults. There are at least five different types of“Boards”thatNASScurrentlyusesforspecificre-ports.ThemostcommonisoftennotthoughtofasaBoardbytheparticipants.ItistheCommoditySectionReviewBoardthatis implementednearlyevery working day of the year. For ongoing re-ports,suchastheWeeklyBroilerReport,thecom-moditystatistician,hisorherstatisticalassistants,andtheirSectionHeadserveasthedefactoBoardforreviewingallindicationsandrecommendationsfromtheField,followinguponanyunusualdatarelationships,andcompilingthereport. Oneimportantapproachforverydetailed,lessmarket-sensitivereportsisreferredtoasa“Re-viewafterSummaryBoard.”Thisisanimportantquality control procedure for reports such as themonthlyPricesandthequarterlyAgriculturalLa-bor reports. Staffmemberswork throughall thecalculationandreviewproceduresonthosereportsand compile the full report for a Board meetingabout24hoursbeforerelease.AllnarrativeshavebeendraftedbythattimeandBoardmembersre-viewthemajordataitemsinthereporttobesurethatState-to-Stateandcommodity-to-commodityrelationshipsseemreasonableandareexplainedbythereportnarratives.

TheannualFarmProductionExpendituresreport,whichcreatesnationalandregionalestimatesformajorexpenditurecategoriesbasedonrelativelysmallsamplesizes,necessitatedanewtypeofBoardreview.An“OutlierReviewBoard”isheldafterba-siceditingandanalysisstepsarecompleted.Basedon the underlying statistical distributions of theexpandeddataforthecurrentyear’sreports,allre-cordsareidentifiedthathadoverwhelmingimpactsontheestimatesofanycategoryattheregionalornationallevel.Ifaparticularoperationappearstobelong to higher strata (due to expansion of theoperationaftercontroldataweredetermined),theBoard might choose to re-summarize that opera-tioninnewstrata.Insomecases,thereporteddataarecorrectforalargeoperationinthehigheststrataandtheBoardwillrecommendactionstosmooththeregionalestimatessincetheoperationhasvalidnationalimpact. One of the most common Board proce-dures is the “Speculative ‘Need toKnow’Board”used for reports such as Acreage, Cattle, GrainStocks, andHogsandPigs. Thoseareverymar-ket-sensitive reports with so many State and cat-egory interrelationships thatnational-levelfiguresareneededtoguideallofthedetailedreviewandestimate-setting activities. If the full speculativeBoardapproachweretobeused,theoutputoftheseveral hours review after lockupwould likelybeone page of U.S.-level numbers. Instead, NASSconductstheformalBoardmeeting4-5daysbeforerelease.Boardmembersreceivedetailedinforma-tiononthesurveydataandanyunusualdatasitu-ations. Themembers then review all indicationsandcreatetheirrecommendationsforBoardtargetsforkeyelementssuchastotalcattle,calfcrop,andnumbersofbeefcows.Afterthetargetsareset,thecommoditystatistician,alongwiththehelpoffieldofficerepresentatives,doestheintensereviewoftheinterrelationships. The Head of the CommoditySectionservesasthekeyreviewer.AllmembersoftheBoardoperateonastrictneed-to-knowbasis.Detailsarenotdiscussedwithanyotherstaffmem-bersandallmaterialsaresecuredwhennotinuse.Thefullreportisfinishedintimeforfinalcomposi-tionandprintingofimmediatereleasecopies.Atthetimeprintingisunderway,copiesdonotexist

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outsideofthelockuparea. The ultimate security setting is the “FullLockupSpeculativeBoards”usedformonthlyCropProductionreports.ThefirstfewdaysofworkonCrop Production reports are under the need-to-knowapproach.However,forthespeculativecropsof corn, cotton, soybeans, wheat, and citrus, thefocusistocompleteworkonallbutthespeculativeStates.Thus,thestatementisoftenmadethat“noonecouldhavehadtheAugust1U.S.cornyieldforecastaheadofthereleasemorning”becausethatfigure was not created until after lockup was inplace andnoone can leave the lockupareauntil8:30a.m.whenthereportisreleasedtoeveryone. Both the World Agricultural Supply andDemand Estimates and the Crop Production re-ports,alongwithfiveotherNASSdataseries,arePrincipalEconomicIndicators(PEI)oftheUnitedStates.OneoftheoperatingproceduresforreportsinthePEIseries is toprovide informationtotheCouncilofEconomicAdvisorsanhourandahalfaheadof release. NASSandWAOBhavealwaysmaintained that no information can be providedaheadofreleasetimebut,iftheCouncildidwanttheinformationaheadoftime,Councilmemberswouldbeallowedtoenter the lockupfacilitybutcouldnotleaveorcommunicatewithanyoneout-sidelockupuntilreleasetime. ThelockupfacilityandthereporterreleaseroomareassetsfortheDepartmentofAgriculture.USDA’sAgriculturalMarketingServiceusesthere-porterreleaseroomforoneofitsongoingreports.Onrareoccasions,analystsoftheDepartmenthaveusedthelockupfacilitytomakedecisionsonfinalprogram details and then announce those detailsoutoflockup.

Backupandcontingencyprocedures forhandlingsecurityforNASSreportshavecoverednearlyev-erypossibility, includingnotbeingable toget totheSouthBuildingworklocation. DuringthefirstGulfWar,whentherewereconcerns about possible retaliation against U.S.Governmentbuildings, theChairperson, theSec-retary of the Board, and one other person madearrangementsthatwouldhaveallowedtheAgricul-turalStatisticsBoardtocompleteworkandissueaskeletonreportfromanon-Governmentlocation.However, thatproceduredealt onlywith a1-dayemergency and would not have enabled orderlyfunctioningforanextendedperiodoftime.AfterSeptember11,2001,moredetailedplansandthecreation of necessary electronic file backups andalternative locations were implemented to ensuretheagricultural statistics infrastructurewouldnotbetotallycutoffbythelossofakeybuildingoranumberofkeyparticipants. Theworkonalternativestostandardpro-cedureshasalreadypaidoffonmultipleoccasions.Thebackupsystemof laptopcomputerswasableto keep operations on schedule when USDA In-ternetconnectivitywastotallycutoffforaperiodoftime.NASShasalsobeenabletoremotelyre-lease(non-lockup)reportsondayswhenWashing-ton,D.C.,officeswereclosedforsituationssuchastheWorldTradeOrganizationprotestsandwhenseverestormswereexpectedintheaftermathofahurricane.However,therehavebeenthreeinstanc-es in the past 10 years when situations did arisethatcausedthedelayofascheduledreportrelease.A description of the handling of those situationsmight round out the explanation of the NASScommitmenttosecurityandconfidentiality. ThefirstsituationwastheEastCoastbliz-zardof1996.Thestormdeposited20-plusinchesofsnowontheWashingtonD.C.,areathesecondweekend of January. The January Crop Produc-tion reportwas scheduled for releaseWednesday,January10,andtheCropProductionAnnualandWASDEreportswerescheduledforThursday,Jan-uary11. Thestormwassevereenoughthatonlylimited road transportation was possible throughWednesday.Washingtonareaairportsdidnotre-sumeserviceuntilWednesday,whichwastheday

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Creating and Adhering to a Calendar

The NASS record for issuing a report ontimeseemsliketheoldPostalServicemotto:“Nei-thersnownorrainnorheatnorgloomofnightstaythese couriers from the swift completionof theirappointedrounds.”NASShasbuiltsuchdetailedcontingencyplansintotheoperationalproceduresthatittakesamassivedisastersituationtodelayorpostponereleaseofaspeculativestatisticalreport.

that the ASB Chair, who had been out of town,wasabletoreturntoWashington.ByTuesday,theAdministrator,theStatisticsDivisionDirector,andonefieldrepresentativewereabletomakeittotheofficeand spentmuchof thedayanswering tele-phonecallsandcommunicatingwithUSDAoffi-cials. The ASB andWAOB notified USDA andthenewsservicesthat2workingday’snoticeofthenewdatesandtimesforthereleaseswouldbegiventoeveryone.(Internally,ASBmembersagreedthattheycouldputoutthereportstheseconddayafterthecottonspecialistcouldgetoutofhisneighbor-hoodandmakeittowork.)NASSworkedcloselywithWAOBinevaluatingthestatusofpersonneland data sources and issued a Thursday, January11,notificationthatallreportswouldbeissuedonTuesday, January16, following theMondayholi-dayforMartinLutherKing,Jr.’sbirthday. Thesecondinstancewascausedbytheter-rorist attacks of September 11, 2001. TheCropProductionandWorldAgriculturalSupplyandDe-mandsEstimatesreportswerescheduledforreleaseat8:30a.m.onWednesday,September12.WorkwaswellalongonthemorningofSeptember11,whenthefirst reportswerereceivedof theplaneshittingtheWorldTradeCenterandthePentagon.Speculative State recommendations had not yetbeentransmittedtoHeadquarters.Whenthewordcame to close down government operations andevacuate, Fred Vogel, the ASB Chairperson, andJerryBange,theWAOBChairperson,madesomecritical,appropriatedecisions.Theyheldameetingwith their joint staffs and instructed everyone tostopwork,savefiles,shutdownallcomputerop-erations,andnotresumeanyreleasedeliberationsuntilorderandsecuritywererestored.NASSandWAOB responded in amanner that assured thatdatasecuritywasnotcompromisedbythedisrup-tionofnormalprocedures.VogelandBangepre-pared a simple announcement that the followingday’sreportswouldbedelayed(seeAppendixC).Bythattime,noonewasintheUSDAOfficeofCommunications.However,RogerRunningenofBloombergNewswasintheadjoininghallwayandhemadesurethatthenoticewentouttoallwireservices—an excellent example of the press andstatisticalagenciesworkingtogether.Onceagain,

NASSandWAOBgave2days’noticethatthere-portswouldbeissuedonFriday,September14. The third departure from the establishedCrop Production and World Agricultural SupplyandDemandsEstimatescalendaroccurredin2004.In thiscase,NASSandWAOBdecidedonshortnoticetoissuereportsadayearly.ThechangewaspromptedbythedeathofformerPresidentRonaldReagan.ThereportswerescheduledtobereleasedonFriday,June11.PresidentReaganpassedawaytheweekendbeforeandbyMonday,June7,planswere shaping up for a National Day of Mourn-ingonthe11th.JuneCropProductionisoneofthesmallerreportsoftheyearandStatisticsDivi-sionstaffmembersfeltthattheycouldfinishworkin time for aThursdaymorning release. WAOBstaffmembersagreedbuttheWAOBChairpersonneeded to communicate with the other agenciescontributingmemberstotheInteragencyCropEs-timationCommittees.ThedecisiontoreleaseadayearlywaswidelyapplaudedwithintheagriculturecommunitysincecommodityandfuturesmarketspreferredtobeclosedontheDayofMourning(seeAppendixC). TheASBcalendarforeachyearispreparedwellaheadoftimeandiswidelypublicizedsoallinterestedinagricultureareawareoftheupcomingreleases.Thecalendarhasbeendescribedas“stablebutnotstatic.”Improvementssuchasadditionaldatabreakoutsareconstantlybeingaddedto im-provethecustomerservicevalue.Oneofthefirststepsincreatingthecalendareachyearistoestab-lish the releasedates for theCropProductionre-ports.Thereleasestakeplacebetweenthe8thand12thof themonth.Thespecificdatesdependonthetimingneededtocollectthesurveydata,cen-teredaroundthefirstofthemonth,andtocom-pleteprocessingintheStatesandinHeadquarters.Release timing is definitely affected by how theweekendsfalleachmonth.Therelativetimingofmostotherreportsissimilarfromyeartoyearbutspecificprinciplesarebuiltintotheplanning,suchasthelivestockindustrypreferringtoreceivemostlivestockreportsonFridayafternoonsratherthanduring themarketingweek. NASSplanners alsobringinanumberofspecialconsiderationssuchasnotissuingreportsonGoodFriday.

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Chapter 6

THE PEOPLE BEHIND THE REPORTS Glimpses of Secretaries and Other Report Signers

Asthiswrite-upindicates,theSecretaryofAgriculturewasverycloselyassociatedwiththesta-tisticsactivitiesintheearly1900s.AsthescopeoftheDepartmentofAgricultureexpandedandmostemployeescameundercivilserviceprovisions,thestatistical agency became independent of day-to-day communications with the Secretary. NASScontactstheofficeofeachnewSecretaryanddeter-mineswhatprocedureswillworkbestintermsofalertingtheofficeofallreportsthatrequiresigningandofspecialfeaturesofanyreport—suchasvisi-torswhowillbeattendingthebriefing.MostSec-retariesareinterestedinthestatisticsprogramandthe opportunity to get immediate notification ofimportantchangesinproductionandworldsupplyanddemandandhaveplacedapriorityonsigningreportswhen theyare available. Since themajorcrop-relatedreportsarenowreleasedat8:30a.m.,

insteadof3p.m.,itisofteneasierfortheSecretarytoincorporatethesigningofareportintohisorherschedule.

Secretary Johanns signs his first USDA report in 2005.

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BriefingsfortheSecretaryhavealsochangedtremendously over the past 100 years. There aresomeinterestinghistoricalpicturesofCRBmem-berscrowdedaroundadeskwhiletheChairpersonhighlightsthereportdetailsfortheSecretary.Pres-ently,thebriefingismoreformal,withdatatablesandresultsprojectedonascreenandtheSecretaryisabletoleavethebriefingwithafull-colorsetofthebriefingmaterialsaswellasthereport(s).WAS-DE briefings often contain some satellite imagesdepictingcurrentvegetativeindexesorsummariesofrainfallinmajorproducingregionsaroundtheworld.Visitorsattendmostbriefings.Manyofthevisitorsareproducersormembersoffarmorgani-zations. The earliest identified farmgroupswerefromNorthCarolinainthelate1970s.However,adelegationfromtheIllinoisFarmBureauattendedtheAugust1982CropProductionreleaseandthatorganization has sent a new group to visit everyAugust since. Other producer organizations havefollowedsuitinplanningoccasionalvisits. MostSecretariesofAgriculturehaveseemedto enjoy the signing andbriefing experience. Assomeoneoncesaid,“Whyshouldn’ttheyenjoyit?Whentheycomeovertheyknowtheywillbefreeoftelephonesandreportersforatleasthalfanhour.”SecretariesofAgriculturehavehadawidevarietyofpersonalitiesandtheyhaveexhibitedquitediffer-entapproachestothebriefings.Manyhavetakenintheentirepresentationandthenaskedaquestionor two for clarification. Some have preferred toaskforclarificationsasthebriefingprogresses.Attimes,aSecretaryhaswantedtogetaquickopin-ion on what actions the Department might take

and has asked questions of the Chief Economistorotheradvisorsinattendance.Inthosecases,thebriefinghasmomentarilybeenplacedonhold. The ASB first rule for briefings is “neversurprisetheSecretary.”Iftherearegoingtobeanyspecialfeaturesinthebriefing,iftherearegoingtobeanyvisitorsorreportersinattendance,orifpho-to requestshavebeenmade, theSecretary’sofficemustbenotifiedinadvance.Thepersonescortingthe Secretary to the lockup area will remind theSecretaryof those special circumstances. Visitorswhoareattendingareaskedtoreadandsignoffonthebasic rulesof attendance. Oneprimarycon-dition is thatvisitorsarebeingallowed theprivi-legeoflisteninginonthebriefingpreparedfortheSecretaryandtheyarenottoaskanyoftheirownquestions. Just as there are classic stories involvingpeoplewhohaveendedupinlockupbymistake,therehavebeensomeinterestinganecdotesinvolv-ingtheindividualswhohavesignedthereportsovertime.AgricultureSecretaryClaytonYeutterplaceda very high priority on signing reports wheneverhewas in townandoften leftothermeetingsonCapitolHillorelsewheretogetbackforarelease.StaffmembersworkingonthereportswerepleasedtohavesuchinterestbuttheybreathedeasierwhentheSecretarydidrushinjustintimetosign.JustintimewasalsothecatchwordfortheearlyreportsoftheMikeEspyadministration.Hardlyanysub-cabinetmembershadbeenconfirmedandSecretaryEspywasworkingondetailssuchasnewnomina-tions,sohewasoftenpressedfortime.Somethinghappenedoneafternoonandhegottotheguard’sdesk just at 3 p.m.when the guardwas openingthedoors.Thus,theSecretarydidn’tneedtoshowa pass and never broke stride on the way to thebriefingroom.(TheChairpersonsoftheASBandWAOBweremakingplanstogototheSecretary’sofficeandbriefhimtheresincehehadn’tarrived.) Thereare twoanecdotes thatperhapswillbe best remembered by staff members who havebeen involved in Board briefings in the past 20yearsorso—andtheybothinvolveaDeputySec-retarywhowassigningintheabsenceoftheSecre-tary.ThefirstwasAnnVeneman,duringherfirsttourwiththeUSDA.Thefirsttimeshesigneda

A USDA official signs a report.

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reportasActingSecretarywasaSeptemberCropProduction report. Visitors that day included adelegationfromtheIowaFarmBureauandasmallgroup from the Mississippi Extension Service.WhenMs.Venemanenteredtheroom,thesouth-erngentlemenfromMississippiroseasone.Itwassecondnaturetothevisitorsbutnosignerhadevergotten a standing reception and the briefing wasdelayedbysuchgood-naturedcommentsas“Gee,Mr.ChiefEconomist,nooneeverstandswhenyoucomeovertosign.” ThesecondstoryinvolvedRichRominger,whowastheDeputySecretaryduringtheClintonadministration. Mr. Rominger signed many re-portsduringhistenureandwasusuallyverypunc-tual.Itseemedstrangethathedidn’tarriveathisusualtimefora3p.m.HogsandPigsrelease.Itgot closer and closer to release time and still noDeputy.Finally,atabout2:55p.m.,USDAChiefEconomistKeithCollinsarrivedwithouttheDep-uty.Collinsexplained,“RichreallywantedtosignthereportbutJaneFondaisinhisofficeanddidn’t

leaveon time.” Tofinish that story, theplannedbriefingwaspresented toCollinsandabouthalf-waythroughRomingerdidarrive. Hewasinter-estedenoughinthereportthathefoundhisownwayovertothelockupareaassoonasJaneFondalefthisoffice. In addition to the value to Secretaries ofAgriculture from attending the briefings, there isa great value to the staff members who work onthereports.PeoplefeelmoreprideintheireffortswhentheSecretaryiswillingtoattendandseefirsthandwhatthestaffmembershavecompiled.Evenstaff members who did not work on the specificreport(s) being released appreciate the Secretary’spresence at briefings and signings. Whenever anewSecretaryhastakenofficeandthewordisoutthatheor she is comingover, therewillbe extrastaffmembersinthehalltocatchaglimpseoftheirnewleader.

The Special Roles of the CRB and ASB Secretary

There are several references that providevarious amounts of detail about the individualswho have served as the Chairperson of the CRBand ASB. Unfortunately, the individuals whoservedinthecrucialSecretarypositionwerenotaswelldocumented.TheSecretaryalwaysworkedincloseharmonywiththeChairpersoninsettingtheannual release calendar, scheduling the dates andmembersoftheboard,andassuringthatallmate-rialswerereadyforboardactionandthatreportswerecompiledandreleasedonschedule. Sincethelate1900s,therehavebeencleardistinctionsbetweenthesecurityrolesoftheCRBSecretaryandthemembersoftheactualestimatessetting boards. Only the Secretary and immedi-atemembersoftheSecretary’sstaffareallowedtocommunicatewith theguard corps. The logic isthat because the Chairperson and other “voting”membersoftheboardsworkedwiththenumberstheyshouldnothaveanycontactwiththeguardslocatedoutsideofthelockupdoors. Fromthe1960sintothe1990s,theCRBandASBSecretaryalsoservedastheChiefoftheDataServicesBranch.ThatBranchwasresponsible

R.K. Smith, Acting Chairman of the Board, and J.K. Pallesen, Secretary of the Board, bring copies of the approved report out from the lockup for general re-lease, June 1947.

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forreceivingdatafilesandrecommendationsfromtheStateoffices,providingproofreadingandedito-rialassistanceforreports,finaltypingandprintingofallreports,andreleaseofphysicalandelectronicversionsofthereports.TheBranchcarriedoutallcommunications with State office personnel andoutsidersonbehalfoftheCRB. RatherthanlistingthedutiesandfunctionsoftheSecretaryposition,itmightbemoreenlight-eningtolistsomecharacteristicsthatareessentialforasuccessfulSecretary. Thoseare listedbelow,alongwithsomeillustrationsthatindicatewhythecharacteristicswerehelpful. AnASBSecretarymustbewellorganizedanddetailoriented.Ifthereportsaregoingtobereleasedon time, theproper staff and all materi-alsmustbepresentbeforetheCRBlockupareaissecured. Detailedtimeschedulesneedtobepre-pared,communicated,andconstantlytrackedandadjustedasneeded.Therangeofdetailsisexten-sive.Whendaytimelockupswerethenorm,detailsextendedtobeingsurethatallpeoplewhowerego-ingtobeinlockuphadplacedafoodorderaheadoftime.Arrangementsweremadewiththecafete-riatobringupalargecartwithalloftheordersataboutnoon. AnASBSecretarymustbeperceptive.Theyneedtoanalyzeallfacetsoftheprocessesthatarerequiredforestablishingalockupandidentifyallthingsthatmightgowrong.Thenormalphiloso-phyofanASBSecretaryistohaveabackupplanforeacheventuality—andatleastonemorebackupfor thebackup. For example, the lockup facilitycurrentlyhasoneveryhigh-capacitycopier/printerandasecond,lowercapacity,machine.Sincebothmachines are normally pressed into service whentheCropProduction and theWorldAgriculturalSupplyandDemandEstimatesreportsareprintedinashortperiodoftimebeforethe8:30a.m.re-lease,anotherreasonablyhigh-speedcopierstandsasaback-up,with thefinalbackupbeingphoto-copymachineslocatedinthelockuparea. ItgoeswithoutsayingthattheASBSecre-tarymustbeextremelysecurityoriented.Chairper-sonsandSecretariesoftheboardwerealwaysab-solutesticklersforconfidentialityandnevergivinganyoneevenahintofnumberstobereleased.This

extendedeventhroughthelastcoupleofminutesbefore a lockup report was going to be released.When the Chairperson and the Secretary of theBoardwouldleavethelockuparea2minutesbeforereleasetotaketheprintedreportstothewaitingre-porters,theyalwaysremindedthemselvesto“lookneithertotheleft,northeright.”Today,theASBSecretarymustconstantlylooktonewalternativesandtechniquesthatwillensurepropersecuritywillbemaintained.Thisconstantsearchforimprove-mentshas ledtoadvancessuchastheacquisitionofscannertechnologytomonitorfortransmissiondeviceswithinthelockupareaandtheinstallationofsecuritycameras. An ASB Secretary must be diplomatic.PastSecretarieshavebeensuccessfulinnegotiatingsome special concessions, such as having USDAofficialsnotscheduleanyfiredrillsduringlockuphoursandgainingpermissiontoremovethespecialhallway emergency phones during lockup hourssothereweretrulynooutsidetelephonecommu-nications. Diplomacyandperseverancehavealsobeenneededtoconvince thecorrectofficials thatairconditioningmustbeoperationalforovernightlockups. AnASBSecretarymustbecustomer-serviceoriented.TheSecretarieshaveoftenbeenthemaincontactfornewsservicesandreporterswantingtocoverreleases.Inaddition,theyhaveusuallytakentheleadindealingwiththeofficesoftheSecretaryofAgricultureandotherpolicyofficialsinarrang-ingthedetailsforsigningreports.ASBSecretarieshave normally had two guiding customer serviceprinciples. First, NASS never wants to surprisetheSecretaryofAgriculturebyhavingunexpectedvisitorspresentatareportsigning.Secondly,theagencyneverwantstosurprisereportersandotherdatausersbyhavingdifferentformatsorcontentsthanexpected. AnASBSecretarymustbeflexible,yetde-cisive.Therearealwayssomesmalldelaysandun-expectedeventsthatneedtobemanagedoneachreport occasion. The ASB Secretary needs to bethinkingoneortwostepsaheadregardingadjust-ments that can be made to preserve quality andtimeliness. However, he or she needs to step inandtakespecificactionswhentheunusualoccurs.

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PerhapsL.DuaneJewellprovidedthebestexam-ple of decisiveness by anASBSecretary. Duringadaytime lockup,avisitorappearedat theguarddeskwithaconfusingstoryof“needingtopickupsomething.” The guard did not understand howtohandle the situationandpushed thebuzzer toalert Duane. Duane stepped into the area be-tween the two setsofdoors to talk to theguard.Inthecourseofthediscussion,theguardslightlyopenedoneoftheoutsidedoorsinordertobetter

hearDuane.Thevisitorthenpushedonthedoorand stepped into the space between the two setsofdoors.Duanedidnothesitate.Heopenedtheinsidedoorandpulledthevisitorthroughsaying,“Youareinsidenowandaregoingtostayinside.”Thevisitorwastakentoatableandchair(inplainsightofNASSstaffmembers)andrequiredtowaitthereuntillockupwasover.Fortherecord,nooneever completely understood what the person wasreallyafter.

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Chapter 7

UNCOVERING TRUE STORIES AND POPULAR CULTURE

The True Story of the Soda Deliveryman

Overthemanyyearsoflockupreportstherehavebeenanumberofinstancesofindividualsin-advertently ending up in the secured area whenthey did not belong. However, none are as wellknownandoftenrepeatedastheperilsofthesodadeliveryman. Likemanyfolklorestories,errorshavecreptintothestoryasithasbeenretoldandembellishedovertime.Thefollowingparagraphsattempttosettherecordstraightfor,asyouwillsee,therealstorymightbemoreinterestingthanthemyths. Acommonversionofthestoryisthattheperson was in NASS space stocking a machinewhentheareawaslockedup.Neitherthetimingnortheactionsarecorrect.Therewasnosodama-chineintheNASSspaceandtheincidentoccurredafteralockupwasunderway. DuffyBarrwasoneoftheASBstaffmem-

bersinchargeofinternalsecurityontheinfamousday and Debbie Williams was the external con-tact. AsDuffy explains, themachine thepersonwantedtorestockwasactuallyintheWashingtonData Processing Center (WDPC), located in thesub-basementof theAgricultureSouthBuilding’sWing2.ThemostdirectwaytoreachWDPC(ex-ceptduringlockupperiods)wasaspecialelevatorthat served only the NASS space in the Wing 2basement and the WDPC. During lockup, thatelevatorwaslockedandWDPChadtobereachedbystaircaseslocatedoutsidetheNASSspace. Lockuphadbeeninitiatedat3:15a.m.onthat August 1979 day with the release scheduledfor3p.m.Thedeliverypersoncametotheguardsecuringthedoorsabout8:30a.m.withafullloadofsodas.Theguardfailedtoconsidertheproperaccess procedures and admitted the person. As

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soonasthepersonwenttotheelevator,heaskedDuffywhyitwasnotworking.ThesodamanwasinformedbyDuffy,andotherCRBstaffmembers,hecouldnotgettoWDPCthatdayandcouldnotleavethelockuparea.Hepleadedhiscasebutwasinformedthatnoexceptionscouldbemadetothe“donotleave”ruleandhewouldhavetostayuntilthe3p.m.release. Someversionsofthefolktalehavetheper-son’s soda truck double parked on IndependenceAvenue—or even double-parked with the mo-torrunning.Neitherthelocationnorthedoubleparking is accurate. The truck was in the insideparkingcourtusedforcommercialdeliveries,butthedriverhadindeedleftthemotorrunning.Thedriverwasalsoconcernedaboutmoneyhehadleftinthetruck. NASS did make special accommodationsin the interestof safety. Thedeliverypersonwasasked for his office telephone number. The tele-phonenumberandinformationabouttruckloca-tionwereverballygiventotheguardandpassedontoDebbieWilliams.Debbiewenttothecourt,lo-catedthetruck,turnedofftheengine,removedthekeys,andlockedthetruck.Shethenreturnedtoherofficeandcalledthesodacompanysupervisor.Thesupervisorwasincredulousanddidnotbelievethatanyone,otherthanalawenforcementagency,could lock up his employee. Debbie stood hergroundandinformedthecompanythatthetruckcouldnotstayinthecourtalldayandneededtobemoved.Someonedidarrivetoretrievethetruck. Anotherpartofthefolkloreisthattheguardwhoadmittedthesodamanwasfired.Thatisnotknown,butheneverworkedanotherlockup.

in,askingforthecarkeysinordertoturnoffthelights.Thatrequestwasgrantedbutonlythekeyswerepassedoutwithnonoteorotherattachment. There aremany rumors and storiesof in-dividualsendingupinlockupwhentheyhadnotintendedtobethere.Someofthemcanbedocu-mentedandarepresentedbelow. Employees of other USDA agencies en-teredbymistakeon twooccasions shortlybeforethechange tomorning releasesand theydidendupspendingthedaywithNASS.ThefirstinstanceinvolvedanewChiefMeteorologistwithWAOB.That person had been through at least one jointNASS/WAOB lockup and had the correct passtobeadmitted.However,hemissedthefactthatNASS lockedupthree timesayear in themorn-ing (for Grain Stocks reports) without WAOB.On those days, WAOB employees had to entertheirspacefromthefrontofthebuildingandnotthroughNASS space. Theveryfirst timeoneofthose lockupswas inplace theMeteorologist en-teredandturnedthecornertoseeasetofcloseddoorsinsteadoftheaccesstohisoffice.AnotewassentouttohavetheguardcallWAOBandletthemknow the Meteorologist would be spending theday.ItturnedouttobeagoldenopportunityforhimtolearnmoreaboutNASSandforNASSstaffmemberstolearnmoreabouttheWAOBweatherprogram. The other instance involved an employeeofUSDA’sAgriculturalMarketingService(AMS).Thatpersonhadalockuppasssincesheoftenen-tered Crop Production lockups shortly before 3p.m. toobtain adiskof the current report. Shethen would create a file that reordered the com-moditiessoAMScouldloadafileat3p.m.,whichwastailoredtotheirdatausers. Thatpersonalsotookpartinthereleaseofaonce-a-weekAMSre-portat10a.m.fromtheNASSreleasefacilityforreporters.Onaparticularlockupday,shethoughtshe was to help with the morning release but itwasnotgoingtobeissuedthatdaybecauseoftheNASS lockup. Oncesheenteredshewasnotal-lowedtoleave.However,shewasaskedtogivethenameofhersupervisorandtheguardwasgivenanotetocallthatpersonandhavethemlockupthepurseshehadleftinheroffice.

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Other Special Security Interpretations

Passingout information inorder tomovethesodatruckwasnottheonlytimethatsuchanaccommodation was allowed. A few years later,multipleCropsBranchemployeeshadcar-pooledtogetherforalockup,arrivingjustafterdawn.TheyparkedinaregularNASScar-poolspotbutinad-vertently left the lightson. Other staffmembersarrivedaboutanhourlater,recognizedthecar,andsurmisedwhathadhappened.Anotewaspassed

The most dramatic instance of a personinadvertentlyendingupinlockupoccurredwhenWayneGardnerwas theDeputySecurityOfficer.Thiswasinthefifthfloorlockuparea,whichhadasodamachinelocatedclosetotheelevators.Oneoftheproceduresinimplementingthelockupwastouseakeytopreventtheelevatorfromstoppingat the fifth floor. As a second security measure,steel doors that covered the two elevator doorswereclosedand locked. On thisparticularday,themechanicalprocedures failed. Awomanwastrying to reach the sodamachine in the early af-ternoon. Insteadofbypassing thefifthfloor, theelevatorstoppedandthelightswentout.Theladystartedscreamingandpoundingonthedoors.IttookGardnerquite sometimetocalmherdownenoughtosuggestshetrypushingthevariousbut-tonsonthecontrolpanel.Whenitseemedobvi-ous that thedoorwasnot going to open,he ex-plainedthathecouldgetheroutoftheelevatorbutshewouldhavetostaywithusuntil3p.m.Oncesheagreed,Gardneropenedthesteeldoorsandwasabletoopenthedoortogetheroutoftheelevator.Shemadeherselfascomfortableaspossibleinhisoffice—andheboughtthesodaforher. NASSdoeshaveemergencyproceduresfornearlyanycontingency,includingevacuationdur-ingalockup.Ontwooccasions,wordcameinthatahospitalizedfamilymemberofapersoninlockuphadsufferedaseveremedicalsetback.Adecisionwasmadethattheaffectedpersoncouldleavebutwouldbeescortedbyaguarduntilthetimelockupwas finished. The guard then prepared a detailedaccountofallactivitiesandcontactsafter leavinglockup,uptothescheduledreleasetime. The closest that the ASB ever came tohaving to evacuate came shortly before theCropProduction reports were shifted from afternoontomorning.About1p.m.onreleasedaythefirealarms went off and shortly thereafter employeescouldhearsomefiredepartmentsirens.TheASBSecretary checked with the guard on duty. Hefoundthatthelockupareawasnotinanyimmedi-atedangerbutheaskedtheguardtoarrangeforatleasttwootherguardstoescortallofthepeopleinlockuptoanotherarea.TheChairpersonsoftheASBandtheWAOBinstructedtheirstaffstoshut

downallcomputersandtosecureallworkingfiles.Sincesomecopiesofthereportstobereleasedhadbeen printed, those were placed in a briefcase tobetakentothenewlocation.IfevacuationoftheSouthBuildingwasrequiredbutnottheWhittenBuilding,thetwoChairpersonswouldhavegonetotheSecretaryofAgriculture’sofficeshortlybefore3p.m.anddonethebriefingthere.TheASBSecre-tarywouldhavetakenthepublicreleasecopiestothepressofficeintheWhittenBuilding.Someem-ployeeswerelinedupreadytoleavetheareawhentheguardcheckedagainwiththeASBSecretary.Itturnedoutthattherehadbeenasmallfireinwingsix(morethanacityblockfromthelockuparea)andthefirewasnowout.Thepeoplewentbacktotheirnormalactivities.

Historical photograph of a guard positioned outside of the lockup area.

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The CRB in Print and the Movies TheuniquenessoftheCRBhasoftenbeeninteresting to others. NASS staff members whoworkintheWashington,D.C.,areaareoftenaskedbynewacquaintances,oncetheysaytheyworkatUSDA,“Areyouoneofthosepeoplethattheylock

up?”Itisnosurprisethatnewspaperarticlesandoccasional television features have been preparedabout the ASB and the security/confidentialityprocedures. One of the earliest articles that has beenpreserved is a story entitled “Drama Behind theCropForecasts,”whichwasprintedintheAugust1955ReadersDigest.Thatarticle,writtenbyIraWolfert,particularlyemphasizedthephysicalsecu-rityproceduresbutalsoaddedmanyexamplesofthevalueofthedataandtheneedforsecurity. Therewas increased interest in theBoardprocedureswhenthemonthlyCropProductionre-portswereshiftedtothemorningreleaseschedulefromthe traditional3p.m. releases.SallySchuff,a reporterwith theColoradoRancher&Farmer,attended thefirst8:30a.m. releaseandprintedanicelydonefeaturearticleentitled“Wherearethesepeople?And,whyaretheylockingthemup?”Amonthortwolater,MaxArmstrongofWGNradioandtelevisioninChicagoattendedalockupreleaseandfilmedthesecurityandreleaseproceduresforhisU.S.FarmReportprogram. Theagencyprepareditsownfilmstopor-tray its statistical procedures, its focus on confi-dentialityandequalaccesstoinformation,anditsspecialreleaseproceduresonatleastfiveoccasions.Thefirstsuchfilmwas“AliceinNumberland,”cre-atedin1962tocommemorate100yearsofstatis-ticsinUSDA.ThefilmwasnotwidelyusedsincemanyStateDirectorsfeltthelighttoneofthepre-sentation would not convey well to their seriousagriculturalproducers. Theagencyputconsider-able effort, hiring a professional actor to be theon-screennarrator,into“TheFactFinders”shortly

thereafter.ThatmoviefollowedtheStatisticsDivi-sionandCRBstaffsthroughthevariousstagesofoperationsonaspecificlockupwithmultiplecut-insthattracedtheactivitiesgoingoninagriculturethatyear.Italsodepictedhowaspecificfarmerin-terpreted the resultsof reports earlier in thecropyearandhowhedecidedtoreactwhenthereportinthemoviewasreleasedat3p.m.Thiswasnotan“actionflick,”butitdidincludesomeCivilWarcannonsforeffect,emphasizingthehistorical im-portanceofagricultureintheUnitedStates. A short film, “The New Numbers,” waspreparedin1967tohighlightthenewenumerativesurveyapproachandtheuseofcomputerstocal-culatetheprobabilitysurveyindications.Anothermovie thatdidnot receivemuchplaywas “FactsforFarming:CropandLivestockReports,”createdabout1980whenSRSwaspartoftheEconomics,Statistics,andCooperativesServiceforashortpe-riodoftime. Aninterestingmovie,“TheNeedtoKnow,”was created in1988under thedirectionofDaveCarter of the Economics Management Staff ofUSDA.Thatmovieskillfullyemploysa“surprisebeginning”andwell-chosenmusictocausetheau-dience to considerhowcritical itwouldbe ifnostatisticalinformationwereallowedtobereleased. Regardlessoftheeffortsoftheagencyandagriculturalpressrepresentativestoportraythese-riousnessofitssecurityandconfidentialityproce-dures,muchofthepublicrelatestotheworkoftheCRBthroughthe1983featurecomedyfilm“Trad-ingPlaces.”Themovieseemstobelooselyadapted

Today, a guard is still used during lockup to main-tain security.

Norman Bennett, chief of the Survey Administration Branch, is filmed by a USDA video crew while he speaks about the confidentiality pledge.

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from the book “The Money Harvest,” written in1975byRossThomas. Thebookandthemoviebothdepictsomewhataccuratelythespeciallockedmailbox in which speculative recommendationsfromStateOfficeswerestoreduntilthemorningoftheCRBactions.Artisticlicensewastakenbytheauthor and the screenwriters to indicate that theCRBwouldsimplyadopttheanswerintheFloridaenvelope(boththebookandmovieusethecitrusforecastasthereportthatismanipulated)andthatthe CRB would not have any other informationupon which to question the false materials sub-stituted for theFlorida recommendations. IthasalwaysbeeneasyforNASSstaffmemberstopointoutthefallaciesinthe“TradingPlaces”depiction. In great contrast to “Trading Places” wasan extraordinary effort to capture the essence ofNASSsecurityandreleaseproceduresbyLeightonSpannandArtisFordoftheMississippiCoopera-tiveExtensionService.Theyhaveaweeklypublictelevisionshowcalled“Farmweek.”In1999theyattended the September release of the Crop Pro-

duction and World Agricultural Supply and De-mandsEstimatesreports.Thetwodidamasterfuljob taking NASS terminology and converting itintoaclearexplanationofthewhysandwhereforesfortheiraudience.TheirtelevisionbroadcastwassosuccessfulthatNASSarrangedtogetcopiesforeveryStateofficetouse internallyandatagricul-turalmeetings. The two gentlemenwere invitedtoreturninSeptember2004inordertovideothenewlydesignedlockupsecurityareaandtobetterfocus on the World Agricultural Outlook Boardprocedures. Twoother short recognitionsof theCRBmaybeworthyofnote.In1988TheWashingtonPostSundayMagazineincludedapictureandshortarticleontheChairpersoninits“TalkingJobs”fea-tureonuniquejobsintheWashington,D.C.area.Thatwasfollowedacoupleofyearslaterbyapic-tureandshortarticleontheBoardSecretaryinafeaturebyWashingtonianmagazineonprotectingsecrets.

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Chapter 8

OUR NASS PLEDGE AND MISSION

NASS Employees— The Secret of CRB Success

This summary has included a number of references that broadly describe the security pro-cedures that NASS has implemented to ensure the integrity of all releases. Those procedures have not been explained in detail. That was by design. The first axiom of good security is to never reveal all security details. The second axiom of security is that no matter how complete procedures are, the biggest potential threat comes from the employees within an organization. NASS has benefited from creat-ing an organizational climate that makes security an operational principle. That climate starts the minute a person comes on board. Security proce-dures are explained and the employee reads and signs a confidentiality pledge as part of his or her immediate orientation to the agency. Every year all employees review the security and confidenti-

ality regulations and recertify. Security goes well beyond a once-a-year reminder. It is reinforced in every ASB meeting. Nearly every day of the year, some staff mem-bers are working on details of upcoming reports and blue security caution signs are posted. Staff members are constantly on the alert to identify outsiders who are not allowed in the work areas. That definition of outsiders extends to NASS staff members not assigned to work on the spe-cific report(s). One example is that each of the last three NASS Administrators readily refrained from entering restricted work areas on occasions when they stopped by to speak to field represen-tatives who were in Headquarters to work on re-ports. The employee climate of strict adherence to the daily security procedures might be best il-

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lustrated by two examples. The first occurred a summer morning when lockup was not in place but most offices in the Crops Branch had the blue “Do Not Enter” signs on the doors. The ASB Chairperson was walking into the Crops Branch work area when he noticed an individual in a de-livery company uniform stop in front of one of the doors and then enter. Coming from the other direction was Bill Dowdy, the Section Head for Field Crops. Dowdy and the Chairperson got to the door at the same time. Before they could enter, the door opened and the outside visitor emerged, walking backwards. He was walking backwards because Sheila Wilcox, the statistical assistant working in that office, was poking him in the chest saying, “You can’t come in here!” The visitor turned out to be a friend of Wilcox’s but she was upholding the security procedures. The second instance was late one after-noon when most employees had left for the day. The Chairperson needed some specific informa-tion about cattle. Shirley Woodruff, the cattle statistical assistant, was the only person in the unit at that time. She explained to the Chairper-son that she knew where the material was kept in the Branch Chief’s office and went on to say, “If you stay here, I will go get it and bring it back. If you don’t stay here, I need to lock up the material I am working on before I leave the office.” The good examples of Wilcox and Wood-ruff upholding strict adherence to the security and confidentiality procedures are surely repeated ev-ery week in all NASS offices. Their pride and dedication to the public trust are in stark contrast to the violations committed by E.S. Holmes, Jr., one hundred years ago which were detailed at the start of this account.

The availability of timely, informative statisti-cal reports from the United States Department of Agriculture has become a hallmark of the U.S. agricultural system. All market participants and interested parties know these vital reports will be issued on schedule and provide a level playing field for everyone. The National Agricultural Statistics Ser-vice and the World Agricultural Outlook Board commemorated the past 100 years with a special celebration on July 12. The celebration featured several keynote speakers, including: Rich Allen, Chairman of the Agricultural Statistics Board; Dr. Joseph Jen, USDA Undersecretary of REE; Charles Conner, USDA Deputy Secretary; Dr. Keith Collins, USDA Chief Economist; Allen Heishman II, Virginia FFA President; and R. Ronald Bosecker, NASS Administrator. This special event celebrated the dedicat-ed service provided by the Agricultural Statistics Board and honored the remarkable agricultural leaders, such as Willet Martin Hays, who have been instrumental in safeguarding America’s ag-ricultural statistics since 1905. Ancestors of Hays joined in our celebration to salute him and the changes he implemented in the estimates process that laid the foundation for the Agricultural Sta-tistics Board. The official procedures for the Agricul-tural Statistics Board were established a century ago because one person with inside knowledge decided to profit on cotton estimates. The lesson provided by this experience has never been for-gotten. The procedures developed to prevent a re-currence of insider trading have been continually upheld by USDA’s National Agricultural Statis-tics Service and the World Agricultural Outlook Board. It is the dedication and commitment of the men and women in these agencies that have made NASS and WAOB successful at maintain-ing proper security and being adaptable to chang-es in USDA, the evolving needs of agriculture, and the technological advances throughout the past century.

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Commemorating a Century of Success-ful and Secure Procedures

Thanks in part to dedicated NASS em-ployees, July 12, 2005, marked a monumen-tal day in agricultural history. On this day, the Agricultural Statistics Board commemorated a century of successful and secure procedures.

The Future

While commemorating 100 years of con-tinuous service, we must also recognize the future needs for U.S. agricultural statistics. It is official USDA statistics that reveal the facts and fuel the markets in agriculture. These statistics have been and will continue to be vital to producers, sup-pliers, buyers, public officials, researchers, and many other data users. It is accurate, unbiased and on-time USDA statistics that provide a level playing field for everyone. NASS employees realize that we are a link in a long chain of service that will contin-ue as long as America’s agriculture continues to provide food, fiber, and energy for people here and around the world. NASS employees will re-main dedicated and committed to upholding ASB procedures and are prepared to confront the chal-lenges of the future. Our pledge, as we enter our second cen-tury of successful and secure procedures, is to continue upholding the model of security to safe-guard data until they are made available to every-one simultaneously and fairly. We will continue

to maintain the trust we have established in our data and our procedures from America’s farm-ers and ranchers, our data users, the agricultural industry, and statistical organizations and gov-ernments around the world. We will continue to ensure that the “curtains always remain sealed” so everyone benefits equally from the U.S. ag-ricultural statistics system. Furthermore, we will continue the NASS mission of providing timely, accurate, and useful statistics in service to U.S. agriculture. We must also remember that one cannot look towards the future without first examining the trials, tribulations, and successes of the past. This historical account is an interim report, cov-ering the past 100 years of secure and confiden-tial reports from the Agricultural Statistics Board. The role and importance of the Agricultural Sta-tistics Board must not be taken lightly. American agriculture is continually counted, measured, priced, analyzed, and reported to provide the facts needed by people working throughout this vast industry. We must continue to document the saga of the Board and its future technological evolutions and advances.

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Appendix A: Chairpersons of the CRB and ASB

About 20 individuals have served as theChairperson of the Crop Reporting Board/Agri-cultural Statistics Board over the past 100 years.Particularlyinthepast20years,theASBhasem-phasized contingency back-up plans and otherindividuals have chaired particular ASB sessions.ThislistingdoesnotincludethoseindividualswhohaveservedasActingChairpersonforspecificre-ports. Before 1961 the leader of the organiza-tion responsible for USDA domestic statisticsoften servedas theChairperson. Since then, theChairpersonpositionhasbeenseparatedfromtheAgencyHeadrole.Informationisincludedinthefollowing listing to indicate the working organi-zationnameandthepositiontitleofeachpersondesignatedasChairperson,alongwithsomeback-groundinformation.

Willet M. Hays July 1905 to June 1906

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Hays was a relatively new Assistant Secretary ofUSDAandhadnotbeeninvolvedwiththestatis-tical reports until being asked to serve as ActingChiefoftheBureauofStatisticsupontheresigna-tionofJohnHyde.

Victor Olmsted July 1906 to April 1907

OlmstedhadbeennamedasAssociateStatisticianwhenHaysbecametheActingChief.InJuly1906,hebecametheChiefoftheBureauofStatistics.Ol-mstedhadformerlyservedastheChiefoftheDivi-sionofDomesticCropReports.

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Charles C. Clark May 1907 to October 1908

OlmstedtookatemporaryreassignmenttoleadaspecialpopulationofcensusprojectfortheBureauoftheCensus.Duringhisabsence,Clark,whobe-came Associate Bureau Chief when Olmsted wasnamedBureauChief,servedasActingChairpersonandActingBureauChief.ClarkhadservedastheChiefClerkof theBureauofStatisticsbeforetheshufflingthatoccurredin1905.

Victor Olmsted November 1908 to March 1913

Olmsted returned from his Census duties andresumedhisduties. Clark tookapositionas theChiefStatisticianof theInternationalInstituteofAgriculture inRome.Onehistorical account im-pliesthatOlmstedwasencouragedtoleavehispo-sitionbynewlynamedAssistantSecretaryofAgri-cultureBeverlyT.GallowayandwasappointedastheStateFieldAgentforVirginia.

Nat C. Murray March 1913 to September 1913

MurrayhadjoinedtheBureauofStatisticsin1904asaFieldAgentassignedtoOhio,Indiana,Illinois,Michigan,andKentucky.HecametoWashington,D.C.,in1906asanAssociateChief.MurraywasdescribedasagoodmanagerbutnotinterestedinservingasthepermanentChairperson,particularlyunderthecircumstancesofOlmsted’sdeparture.

Leon M. Estabrook September 1913 to July 1922

EstabrookhadformerlyworkedforAssistantSecre-taryGalloway.HeandMurrayworkedwelltogeth-erandmademanyimprovementstothestatisticalprocedures.In1914thenameoftheorganizationwaschangedtotheBureauofCropEstimates.In1921,theBureauofMarketsandCropEstimateswas formed. Estabrook was named as AssociateChiefofthenewBureauandMurraywasnamed

theChiefoftheDivisionofCropEstimates.InJuly1922HenryC.TaylorwassuccessfulinmergingallactivitiesdealingwithagriculturaleconomicsintotheBureauofAgriculturalEconomics(BAE).TheCropReportingBoardwasnowundertheDivisionofCropandLivestockEstimates.Estabrookappar-entlytookonnewdutieswithinthenewBureau. Nat C. Murray July 1922 to December 1923

Murray found himself again in an acting role asthe Chairperson and the Division Head of CropandLivestockEstimates. Heresignedat theendof1923totakeapositionwiththeprivatefirmofCurtis,Clement&Co.

William A. Schoenfield January 1924 to September 1924

SchoenfieldwasAssistantChief of theBureauofAgricultural Economics. He served as the CRBChairperson in an acting capacity while keepinghisBAEposition.

W. F. Callendar September 1924 to August 1935

Callendarhadbeen statistician in chargeofWis-consinandthenOhio.HehadcometoWashing-ton,D.C.,in1921asAssistanttotheChiefoftheBureau of Markets and Crop Estimates. He be-cametheHeadoftheDivisionofCropandLive-stockEstimateswhenMurrayleft.

Joseph A. Becker August 1935 to May 1937

BeckerbecametheDivisionHeadwhenCallendarbecametheAssistantAdministratorandComptrol-leroftheAgriculturalAdjustmentAdministration(AAA). Becker had been the Principal DivisionStatisticianandledmostadjustmentsinproceduresfornewstatisticsrequiredbecauseoftheGreatDe-pression.In1937Beckertokeextendedsickleavebecauseofpoorhealth.

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W. F. Callendar May 1937 to July 1942

Callendar was recalled from the Agricultural Ad-justmentAdministrationtoagaintakeoverastheDivisionHeadandChairman.BeckerreturnedasatechnicalassistantandPaulL.Koenig,whohadworkedwiththestatisticsunitsbeforeJuly1935,returned as Administrative Assistant to the Divi-sionHead.InOctober1938theAgriculturalMar-ketingServicewas formedwith statistics and theCRBundertheAgriculturalStatisticsDivisionofAMS.

Joseph A. Becker July 1942 to August 1944

WhenCallendarleftWashington,D.C.,tobecometheFloridaStateStatistician,PaulL.Koenigwasnamed as Division Head. However, Becker, theAssistantforTechnicalWork,wasdesignatedastheChairpersonoftheCRB.

Paul L. Koenig August 1944 to January 1946

BeckertransferredtotheOfficeofForeignAgricul-turalRelationsin1944.KoenigservedastheCRBChairpersonuntil1946whenCallendar,whohadbeendetailedfromFloridatotheagriculturalcen-susprogram,returnedtoserveastheChairperson.

W. F. Callendar January 1946 to December 1949

Callendar remained as the Division Head andChairperson until his retirement at the end of1949.

Sterling R. (Bert) Newell January 1950 to April 1962

Bert Newell was appointed as Assistant Chief ofBAEandChairpersonoftheCRBwhenCallendarretired.WhentheAgriculturalEstimatesDivisionofAMSwasformedin1953,hebecametheDirec-

toroftheDivisionandremainedastheChairper-son.WhentheStatisticalReportingService(SRS)and the Economic Research Service were formedonApril3,1961,NewellbecametheDeputyAd-ministratorandChairperson,servinguntilhisre-tirementin1962.

Glenn D. Simpson April 1962 to May 1971

UponNewell’sretirement,GlennSimpsonbecamethe Deputy Administrator and the CRB Chair-person. Simpsonstartedhisagriculturalstatisticsworkas theWyomingAgent in1934. Hetrans-ferredtoNewYorkin1938andontoWashington,D.C.,in1939.Heservedinthearmedforcesfromlate1942untilDecember1945.InApril1953,hewaspromotedtobethe“PrincipalAssistant”andSecretaryoftheCRB.HebecametheCRBChair-personin1962,andremaineduntilhisretirementin1971.HewasanavidstudentoforganizationalstructuresandwasinstrumentalinshapingtheSRSfunctionalstructure.

Bruce M. Graham May 1971 to July 1979

BruceGrahambecametheCRBChairpersonwhenGlenn Simpson retired. Bruce was particularlyknown for pioneering work directing the SurveyOperationsGroupresponsiblefordevelopingman-ualsandtrainingmaterialswhentheorganizationstartedusingprobabilitysurveysinvolvingperson-al interviews. Graham started in theRichmond,Virginia,officein1946andtransferredtoSeattle,Washington, in 1948. He came toWashington,D.C., in1956andworked invarious surveypo-sitionsbeforebeingnamedDeputyAdministratorin 1971. Graham continued as the Chairpersonuntilhisretirementin1979buthisworkingtitlechanged in January 1978 to being an AssistantDeputy Administrator when SRS was combinedwiththeEconomicResearchServiceandtheRuralCooperatives Service into the Economics, Statis-tics,andCooperativeService(ESCS).

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John W. (Wally) Kirkbride August 1979 to February 1980

Wally Kirkbride is perhaps best remembered forhis leadershipof theagency’s estimationprogramand people may assume that he had long tenureas theChairperson. However,hismainCRBas-sociationwas asEstimatesDivisionDirector andDeputy Chairperson from July 1972 to August1979whenBruceGrahamretired.Kirkbridestart-edasanagentinKansasin1939.HeservedinthearmedforcesduringWorldWarIIandtransferredtoKentuckyonhisreturnin1946.HespentmostoftherestofhiscareerinHeadquartersexceptforanassignmentinColumbus,Ohio.Headvancedthrough a number of positions in the EstimatesDivision, including serving as theDeputyDirec-torbeforetakingoverastheDirectoroftheSurveyandDataDivisionin1966.KirkbridebecametheEstimatesDivisionDirectoraspartofa3-wayDi-visionDirectorshiftin1972.HewasnamedastheChairpersonoftheCRBinAugust1979andthenretiredinFebruary1980.

James L. Olson March 1980 to June 1981

JimOlsonstartedintheSouthDakotaofficebutspentmostofhisearlycareerinColorado. Dur-inghisfirsttourinWashington,D.C.,heworkedin the Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Branch andthen rotated to the soybeans statisticianposition.Hedidsuchacommendable job inhandling thefalloutfroma“bust”intheestimatesononestocksreport that he was soon selected as an Assistantto the Administrator. His next position was astheStateStatisticianinIdahobeforereturningtoWashington,D.C.,asaBranchChiefandDivisionDirector. HeservedasanAssistant to theESCSAdministratorbeforereplacingWallyKirkbrideastheCRBChairperson.Theagencynamechangedto Economics and Statistics Service (ESS) whileOlsonwastheChairperson.In1981hemovedtoRaleigh, North Carolina, as the State Statisticianandretiredfromtherein1990.

William E. Kibler July 1981 to April 1982

In 1981 the ESS organization was dissolved andtheStatisticalReportingServicebecameaseparateagency again. Administrator Bill Kibler did notimmediately name anyone as CRB ChairpersonwhenJimOlsonleftforNorthCarolinabutservedastheActingChairpersonhimself.KiblerworkedoriginallyasastudentaidinGeorgiain1951be-forestartingintheNorthCarolinaStateofficeandlater transferring toGeorgia. Hewasoneof thefirst individuals selected for an agency-sponsoredmathematicalstatisticstrainingprogramandspentthe1960-61 school year atNorthCarolinaStateUniversitybeforetransferringtoWashington,D.C.He served in multiple positions in the StandardsandResearchDivisionandlaterbecametheDirec-toroftheResearchandDevelopmentDivisionin1970andtheSurveyandDataDivisionin1972.HetookoverasNorthCarolinaStateStatisticianinlate1974andmovedbacktoWashington,D.C.,ayear later,astheAssociateAdministratorbeforebecoming the Administrator in November 1976.KiblerretiredastheAdministratorinMay1987.

Wilbert H.Walther April 1982 to February 1984

WilWaltherstartedwiththeagencyinNewMex-ico and also worked in Kansas before moving toWashington,D.C.,forthefirsttimein1963.HisfirstassignmentwasintheFieldCropsBranchbuthewasmostknownforhislaterworkinlivestockstatistics.HeservedastheTexasStateStatisticianfromNovemberof1975 toApril1980. Hewasthe Survey Division Director in 1982 when hewasnamedastheDeputyAdministratorandCRBChairperson.HeretiredinFebruary1984.

Raymond R. Hancock March 1984 to September 1986

RayHancockstartedasastudenttraineeinGeor-giain1955andjoinedtheGeorgiaofficefulltimein1956.HealsoworkedintheFloridaofficebe-

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foremoving toWashington,D.C., in1965. HeassistedwithCropReportingBoardactivitiesandthenworkedintheStandardsandResearchDivi-sionbefore takingover as the cotton commodityspecialist.HewasservingasaSectionHeadintheFieldCrops,Fruit,andVegetablesBranchin1973whenhewas selected as the State Statistician forKansas.HereturnedtoWashington,D.C.,in1975as theChiefof theDataCollectionBranch. HelaterservedastheDeputyDirectoroftheEstimatesDivision and was selected as the State StatisticalDivisionDirector in1980. HewaspromotedtobetheDeputyAdministratorandCRBChairper-soninMarchof1984.WhenSRSchangedtotheNationalAgriculturalStatisticsServiceinOctober1986,HancockbecametheDeputyAdministratorforOperationsandnolongerhadtheCRBduties.

Charles E. Caudill October 1986 to May 1987

CharlieCaudillwas a student inNorthCarolinafor2 summersbefore starting full time inNorthCarolinain1957.HealsoservedintheMarylandState office before spending the 1961-62 schoolyearinAmes,Iowawhentheagencyexpandedthemathematical statistics program to include IowaStateUniversity. Caudill served in theStandardsand Research Division and then the AgriculturalEstimatesDivision,headinguptheMethodsStaff.HetookoverastheTexasStateStatisticianin1972andreturnedtoWashington,D.C.,in1975astheDirectoroftheResearchDivision.Amajoractiv-ity,whileinthatposition,wasservingastheUSDAManagerofthemulti-departmentalremotesensingprogramknownasAgRISTARS.In1984,hebe-cametheDirectoroftheStateStatisticalDivision.CaudillbecamethefirstDeputyAdministratorforProgramsandChairpersonoftheAgriculturalSta-tisticsBoard aspartof the reorganization inOc-tober1986.CaudillwasnamedasAdministratorwhenBillKiblerretiredin1987.

Richard D. (Rich) Allen June 1987 to September 1999

RichAllenstartedwithSRSintheIowaOfficein

1963. He spent the 1967-68 school year in themathematicalstatisticsprogramatIowaStateUni-versity before moving to the Standards and Re-searchDivisionin1968.HeservedastheDeputyStateStatisticianintheIllinoisofficebetween1972and 1976 and then transferred to the MethodsStaff in the Estimates Division. He led the ListFrameTeamProjectandservedastheChiefoftheRemoteSensingBranchbeforebecoming theDirectorof theSurveyDivision in1982.HelaterheadeduptheEstimatesDivisionbeforebeingnamedas theDeputyAdministratorfor Programs when Charlie Caudill became Ad-ministrator. In1995, followinga reorganization,hebecametheAssociateAdministrator,whilestillserving as ASB Chairperson. When the DeputyAdministratorforProgramsandProductspositionwas established in 1999, the Chairperson dutiesshiftedtothatposition.

Frederic A. (Fred) Vogel October 1999 to November 2002

FredVogel began his SRS career while a studentinColoradoin1963andthenstartedworkingfulltimeinCaliforniainthespringof1964.Hespentthe1968-69 schoolyear at IowaStateUniversityinthemathematicalstatisticsprogramandmovedtoWashington,D.C., in1969. Heheld variousassignmentsinResearchandDevelopment,intheMethodsStaff,andbacktoResearchandDevelop-mentasaSectionHeadbeforetransferringtotheIllinoisofficein1976astheDeputyStateStatisti-cian.HereturnedtoWashington,D.C.,in1980astheChiefoftheMethodsStaff.HebecametheDirector of the Statistical Research Division in1984andlaterservedastheDirectoroftheStateStatisticalDivisionandtheEstimatesDivision.In1999 he became the first Deputy AdministratorforProgramsandProductsandChairpersonoftheAgriculturalStatisticsBoard.HeremainedinthatpositionuntilhisretirementinNovember2002tobecome theGlobal Manager of the InternationalComparisonProgramatTheWorldBank.

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Rich Allen November 2002 to October 2005

AfterFredVogel’sretirement,RichAllenshiftedtotheDeputyAdministratorforProgramsandProd-ucts position and once again served as the ASBChairpersonuntilhisretirement.

Appendix B: Secretaries of the CRB and ASB

Throughout the history of the Crop Re-porting Board/Agricultural Statistics Board therehasbeenonekeyindividualatalltimeswho“madethings happen.” That individual was responsibleforlogisticsandcoordinationandneededtohavedata, people, and processes in place to completeBoard analyses and issue reports on time. How-ever,theterm“CRBSecretary”apparentlydoesnotappearuntil1953. Interestingly,thefirstpersondesignatedastheSecretaryoftheCRB,GlennSimpson,carriedoutquitedifferentresponsibilitiesthanhissucces-sors. WhenBertNewell selectedSimpsonas thePrincipal Assistant and Secretary, he announcedthatSimpsonwouldtravelextensivelyonbehalfofthe Board. Much of that travel was intended toimproveandstandardizeagencyproceduressuchastheuseofpegstrips.

LaterSecretariesdidnotfindmuchtimeforagencytravelwhileintheirposition.MelKoehn(pronounced Cane), who held the position forthe longest tenure, once commented in the early1970sthatheneededtogotosomeagencytrainingschools“becausetheyoungerpeoplecominginonBoardcallsarecallingmeMr.“Cohen.” EverySecretaryhashadkeyassistantswhotookonmuchoftheday-to-dayresponsibilityforphysicalsecurityandreportlogistics.Manypeoplerotatedthroughthosepositionsandwentontofu-ture supervisory andmanagement roles. Specificassignments and responsibilities varied so muchovertimethatitisimpossibletocompileacompre-hensivelistofthosemajorparticipants.Therefore,this sectionwill focuson thebackgroundsof thepeopleservingastheSecretary.

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Glenn D. Simpson April 1953 to March 1961

DetailsonGlennSimpson’s careerwereprovidedintheChairpersonsection.

Melvin Koehn March 1961 to June 1979

MelKoehnreallydefinedtheroleofCRBSecretary.Hewasanexcellentmulti-tasker,heengagedandeffectivelyutilizedhisentirestaff,andhesmoothlycoordinatedallprocesses,withbackupproceduresinplacefornearlyeveryeventuality.KoehnworkedintheSouthDakotaStateOfficebeforecomingtoWashington,D.C.,in1959.Hewasoriginallyas-signedtoCropReportingBoardactivitiesuponhisarrivalinHeadquartersandendedupmakingthathiscareer.

Paul A. Walsh, Jr. June 1979 to October 1980

PaulWalshoriginallyworkedintheMinnesotaandIowa offices before his first stint in Washington,D.C.HethenservedasastatisticianinWyoming,the Deputy State Statistician in Mississippi, andtheStateStatisticianinAlabamabeforereturningtoWashington,D.C.,totakeoverasChiefoftheDataServicesBranchandCRBSecretary.In1980,herotatedtotheSystemsBranchChiefposition.

Gerald L. Clampet January 1981 to September 1984

Jerry Clampet worked in the Illinois, Ohio, andMissouriStateofficesbeforecoming toWashing-ton,D.C.,in1970.Clampethadbecomeduallyqualifiedasa statisticianandacomputer systemsanalystandassistedondevelopmentofsomenewagencycomputersystemsinadditiontocommod-ityassignments.HemovedtoNorthCarolinaastheDeputyStateStatisticianin1977andreturnedtoWashington,D.C.,in1981tobecometheCRBSecretary.ClampettransferredtotheOfficeoftheAdministratorin1984.

L. Duane Jewell October 1984 to November 1990

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Duane Jewell worked in the Idaho State Officeearly inhis careerbefore coming toWashington,D.C.,intheFruitandVegetablestatisticsprogram.HethenservedastheDeputyStateStatisticianinArkansasbeforereturningtoWashington,D.C.,intheLivestockSection.HewasnextinchargeoftheColoradoStateOfficebeforereturningoncemoretoWashington, D.C., to head up the Data Col-lectionBranch in1980. He rotated to theDataServicesBranchChiefandSecretaryoftheBoardpositionin1984andremainedinthatpositionun-tilretiringin1990.

Michael Hunst February 1991 to June 1994

MikeHunststartedasastatisticianintheOregonState Office in 1965. He showed an interest indata processing applications and became duallyqualifiedasacomputersystemsanalyst.Whenhecame toWashington,D.C., in1972,hisoriginalassignmentswere indataprocessing applications.He later transferred to the Indiana State Officeas the Deputy State Statistician and returned toWashington,D.C.,in1988.HunstwastheSecre-taryresponsibleforpreparingnewtimetablesandassignmentsinordertoshifttheCropProductionandGrainStocksreleasesto8:30a.m.releasesin-steadofthetraditional3p.m.In1994hebecametheMinnesotaStateStatisticianandservedinthatroleuntilhisretirement.

William L. Pratt June 1994 to December 1999

BillPrattstartedhisagriculturalstatisticscareerintheKansasStateOfficein1967.HetransferredtotheNorthCarolinaofficeandspent the1972-73schoolyearatNorthCarolinaStateUniversity intheagency’smathematicalstatisticsprogram.Be-tween1974and1983,hehadvariousassignmentsin the Research and Development, the MethodsStaff,andthePricesandLaborBranchofEstimates

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Division.HebecametheTexasDeputyStatisticianin1979andthenreturnedtoWashington,D.C.,in1986astheChiefoftheLivestockandPoultryBranch.Prattandhisstaffworkedoutthearrange-ments for allowing reporters to enter lockup thelasthourbeforereleasesotheycouldpreparetheirnewsstoriesandbereadytotransmitwhencom-municationswererestored.PrattservedastheASBSecretaryuntilhisretirementin1999.

Brad E. Schwab December 1999 to December 2000

WhentheMarketingandInformationServicesOf-ficewasestablishedthroughreorganization,thedu-tiesofASBSecretarywereassignedtotheAdmin-istrativeSupportSectionHead.BradSchwabhadbeen serving as the deputy to the ASB Secretaryandhebecame thefirstASBSecretaryunder thenewstructure.Schwabwasanotherindividualwhohadbecomeduallyqualifiedasbothanagriculturalstatisticianandacomputerspecialist.Mostofhis

originalassignmentsinArkansasandVirginiawereasastatisticianbuthisassignmentsinWashington,D.C.,before theASBworkwere innetworkandtechnical support roles. Schwabbecame the Illi-noisStateStatisticianattheendof2000.

Forestine H. Chapman January 2001 to Present

Forestine Chapman started in the Alabama StateOfficeandalsoworkedintheIowaStateOfficebe-forecomingtoWashington,D.C.,in1992.Amongother assignments, sheworked in survey trainingand the Fruit and Vegetable Section. However,herwillingnesstotakeanextendeddetailtoassistwithASBreportpreparationandprintingduringtheextendedillnessofanotheremployeewasakeyfactorinherselectionfortheASBSecretaryposi-tionwhenBradSchwabtransferred.Onedevelop-mentduringChapman’stenurehasbeencreationandtestingofanetworkoflaptopcomputersasabackuptoregularprocessingequipment.

Appendix C: News Releases

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Appendix D: Testimonials for ASB Commemoration

The Honorable Terrence A. DuffyChairman of the BoardChicago Mercantile Exchange Inc.

Cattlecontracts,respectively.TheNASSLivestockSlaughter report provides official confirmation ofshorter-term slaughter estimates, and the NASSMilk Production report provides similar officialconfirmationofmilk suppliesonaState-by-Statebasis. Inaddition,NASShasbeenresponsivetoCMErequests for changes thatmakeNASSdatamoreuseful.Afewrecentexamplesinclude:• NASS designed and conducted a specialsurvey of Milkfat Prices which was used to helpCME and the dairy industry assess the potentialforafuturescontract.• NASSbegan releasing thequarterlyHogsandPigsreportearlierinDecembersothatmarketparticipantscouldmoreeasilymakeyear-endposi-tionadjustments.

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ChicagoMercantileExchangeInc.(CME)congratulatesUSDA’sNationalAgriculturalStatis-ticsService(NASS)forits100yearsofoutstand-ingservicetotheagricultural industry.CMEisadata-driven organization, and NASS reports playacriticalroleinthesuccessofourlivestock,meat,anddairymarkets.Forexample: The NASS Dairy Product Prices reportprovides the raw data for the cash settlement ofCME’sClassIIIandClassIVMildcontracts.TheNASS Cold Storage, Hogs and Pigs, Cattle OnFeed,andCattle reportsprovidevaluable supply-related information for users of CME’s FrozenPorkBellies, LeanHogs,LiveCattle, andFeeder

• NASSiscurrentlyconductingaspecialtab-ulationoftheCensusofAgriculturethatwillallowCMEtofine-tunethe locationsof itsLiveCattledeliverypoints. AlloftheseeffortsbyNASSallowCMEtoprovidetheagriculturalsectorwithmoreefficientmarkets,andmoreeffectiveriskmanagementandpricediscoverytools.WearepleasedtohaveNASSas a partner in these efforts, and we wish NASScontinuedsuccessasitbeginsitssecondcenturyas“TheFactFindersofAgriculture.”

Mike HunstASB SecretaryFeb. 1991 - June 1994

LookingbackonmyNASScareer,IregardmystintasASBSecretaryas thehighlightofmycareer.Ialwaystookveryseriouslymydutyofen-suringtheconfidentialityofASBreportsanddoingeverythinginmypowertogeteachreportoutontime.InmyjobasMNAgriculturalStatisticsDi-rector,IoftenhadtheopportunitytoexplaintheNASS reportpreparation, confidentiality, and re-leaseprocedures;andmypositionasASBSecretarygavemethefirst-handexperiencetospeakwithau-thority.

Jerry ClampetASB SecretaryJan. 1981 - Sept. 1984 The sense of security that surrounded al-most everything we did in the Crop ReportingBoardwaswithmevirtuallyallofthetime.Thataspectofourresponsibilityrequiredustobevigi-lant, regardless of whether we were in lockup ornot.Closingthelockupdooroftengeneratedsomethoughtof isolation.Openingthedoortoreleasethereportoftengeneratedfeelingsofbeing liber-ated.Walking out the door with the stack of re-portsinhandwasoftena“highmoment.”Thiswas

especiallytruewithCropreports.“Lookingneithertotherightnortheleft”wasserious.Peoplewereanxioustoseewhatwehaddoneinsidelockup.Sowhenwe laidcopiesof the reports facedownonthetelephoneboothshelves,wewereaboutreadytocommunicaterealnewstoalotofpeople.Thatwas“heady”sometimes. ...CropReportingBoardtasks,alongwiththe associated accomplishments and frustrationshelpedmanyofustogrowinknowledgeandman-agementskills.Isincerelyappreciateallofthesup-portthatourbranchprovidedtoourSRScolleaguesandournon-SRScustomers.Itwasverygoodtobeapartofthatteamduringthe1981-1984period. I thank and applaud the current NASSleadership for their attention to this event, thedocumentation through the“SafeguardingAmer-ica’s Agricultural Statistics” publication, and therequestsfor inputfrommanyofuswhowerein-volved during the past century. My best regardsandappreciationtoallofyou.

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Rich RomingerDeputy Secretary of Agriculture1993-2001

I appreciated receiving a copyof thePre-liminaryReleaseof“SafeguardingAmerica’sAgri-culturalStatistics.”Ienjoyedreadingthehistoryof“cropreports”andtheevolutionofthereportsandthesecurityandconfidentialityproceduresoverthepast100years.Asafarmermostofmylife,Iknowthegreatvalueofaccurate,timelyanduncompro-mised statistics available to everyone at the sametime. This is one of the important elements thatmake U.S. agriculture and our private enterprisesystemtheenvyoftheworld.AsaDeputySecre-tarywhoreceivedthebriefingsandsignedmanyofthosereports,Iwaspleasedtobepartofthesys-tem. ...CongratulationsandBestWishestotheNationalAgriculturalStatisticsService(NASS)andthe World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)for100yearsofoutstandingservicetothenation.

Jim DonaldWAOB Chairperson1982-1994

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Congratulations on 100 years of ever-improvingstatistics. Those statistics provided the basis forsounderdecisionsbyGovernmentofficialsandbyallparticipants in thenation’s foodandfiber sys-tem.MyknowledgeofNASScapabilitycameearlyinmy37-yearcareerwithUSDA,followingmyas-signmenttocottonsituationandoutlookwork.Isoonlearnedthatstatisticians,likeHoseaHarknessofthesoybeandesk,knewanawfullotaboutpro-duction and statistical data andmethodsused toarriveatsound,objectiveestimates. I continued to be impressed with NASSpeopleandproductsovertheyears inconnection

withcommoditysituationandoutlookreports.Itbecamequiteevidentthatstatisticianswereaccom-plishing missions through sound training, disci-pline,dedicationandhardwork. IreallygottoknowNASSwhenIbecameChairpersonofWAOBin1982.IrecallthatSRSAdministratorBillKiblerwentoutofhisway tocongratulatemeand to sayhe looked forward toour agencies working together. That spirit of co-operation was kept alive with subsequent NASSAdministrators and Statistics Board ChairpersonsandwasakeytoWAOB’ssuccessfullypursuingitsgoals. Asaresponsiblepersonleadingtothepub-lication of official USDA long-term agriculturalprojections, I have a new projection to share: IseeademandforNASSproductsforthenext100years.

Appendix E: Photographs from ASB Commemoration on July 12, 2005

USDA’S AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD CELEBRATES THE PAST 100 YEARS

A Century of Successful and Secure Agricultural Statistics

July12,2005,markedamonumentaldayinthehistoryofagriculturalstatistics.Onthatday,theU.S.DepartmentofAgriculture’sNationalAg-riculturalStatisticsService(NASS)commemoratedacenturyoftheAgriculturalStatisticsBoard(ASB)anditsprocedures.Theavailabilityoftimely,infor-mativestatisticalreportsfromUSDAhasbecomeahallmarkoftheU.S.agriculturalsystem. TheofficialASBoperatingprocedureswereestablishedin1905inresponsetoaninsidertrad-ing scheme. A USDA employee working on thecottonestimatesleakedinformationtoaNewYorkcottontraderandmadesignificantprofitsfromhisinsideknowledge.Whenthedataleakwasdiscov-ered,strictnewprocedureswereadaptedtoupholdtheintegrityoftheASBanditsstatisticalreports. Theseproceduresincludedwhatisknowntodayas“lockup”,theprocessinwhichUSDAem-

ployeescompilingspeculativereportsarelockedina secure area with no means of outside commu-nicationuntil thescheduledreleasetime.Lockupproceduresensurethatnoinformationwillbepre-maturelyreleased. Today, market participants and interestedpartiesknow that vital reports issued by the ASBwillbereleasedatthescheduledtimetoprovidealevelplayingfield for everyone.Theseprocedureshave been continually upheld by NASS and theWorldAgriculturalOutlookBoardforthepast100years. ThishistoricalachievementwascelebratedJuly12,2005,atacommemorativeceremonyheldatUSDAheadquarters inWashington,D.C.Theceremonyfeaturedseveralkeynotespeakersinclud-ing: Rich Allen, ASB Chairman; Dr. Joseph Jen,USDA Under Secretary of Research, Education

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and Economics; Charles Conner, USDA DeputySecretary;Dr.KeithCollins,USDAChiefEcono-mist;andR.RonaldBosecker,NASSAdministra-tor. Theprogramfocusedonthepast,present,and future of the ASB and agricultural statistics.Special recognition and honor were given to thededicated members of the ASB and the remark-ableagriculturalleaderswhowereinstrumentalinsafeguardingU.S.agriculturalstatisticsforthepastcentury. AtributewasmadetoWilletMartinHays,AssistantSecretaryofAgricultureunderPresidentTheodoreRoosevelt,forimplementingchangesintheestimatesprocess that laid the foundation fortheASB.DescendantsofWilletHayswereamongtheparticipantsinthecelebration. Throughouttheprogram,speakersandat-tendeescontinuallytouchedupontheimportanceof the ASB and the importance of statistical re-porting. Remarking on the 21st century, USDAChief Economist Dr. Keith Collins proclaimed,“Relevant and accessible statistical and economicinformation will be more essential than ever formarketparticipantsandpolicyofficialsbecause, Ibelieve,thechallengesaremorecomplexthanever.The20thcenturygaveustheriseofthescienceofstatistics. “In the 21st century, we’re going to havenew ways of collecting data, new technologieslikecomputerpowerthatareunimaginable,satel-lite technology,new formsof technology thatwehaven’tevendreamedofyet,aswellastremendous-ly powerful database management systems. Withthese advances, I think the ability of statisticiansandeconomistswillbegreaterthanevertoreachnew levels of understanding of global agricultureandtherebyhelpworldleadersmakemorerationalandeffectivepublicpolicydecisions,”addedCol-lins. As the ASB commemorates 100 years ofcontinuousservice,governmentofficials,represen-tativesfromtheagriculturalindustryandresearch-ersnowturntheirfocustothefutureneedsofU.S.agricultural statistics. It is the accurate, unbiasedandtimelyUSDAstatisticsthatrevealthefactsandfuelthemarketsinagriculture.Thesestatisticswill

continuetoserveavitalroleforproducers,suppli-ers, buyers, public officials, researchers and otherdatausers. Pledging touphold themission andhighstandardsofNASSandtheASB,NASSAdminis-tratorR.Ronald Bosecker remarked, “We realizethatwearealinkinalongchainofservicethatwillcontinueaslongasAmerica’sagriculturecontinuestoprovide food,fiberandenergy forpeoplehereand around the world. We welcome the comingchallengesasweenteroursecondcentury.”

Prior to the release of the July 12 Crop Production report, visitors are given a tour of the lockup facility. Carol House explains the process that occurs leading up to the official release at 8:30 a.m.

Visitors and special guests attend the secretary’s brief-ing for the July Crop Production report to recognize 100 years of secure agricultural statistics.

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In honor of the centennial celebration, the July 12 crop report was printed with a Crop Reporter header similar to what was used in 1905.

USDA Chief Economist Dr. Keith Collins and Dep-uty Secretary Charles Conner attend the briefing for the July 12 crop report immediately preceding the commemoration celebration.

USDA Deputy Secretary Charles Conner addressed the audience by emphasizing how vital agricultural statistics and ASB reports are to the U.S. agricultural community.

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USDA Chief Economist Keith Collins enthusiasti-cally shares his vision for the future of agricultural statisticians and economists.

Attendees at the celebration received handouts with historical information and photographs document-ing the past 100 years of the Agricultural Statistics Board.

Master of ceremony Rich Allen (in costume as Wil-let Hays) began the event by welcoming the speakers and special guests who were able to participate in the festivities.

Dr. Joseph Jen, USDA Under Secretary, offered high praise for NASS and its employees.

NASS Administrator Ron Bosecker closed the pro-gram with a few special words of appreciation to Rich Allen and the Agricultural Statistics Board.

Among the audience were guests including: Ruth Bas-com, granddaughter of Willet Hays and her husband John Bascom, Carol House of NASS, Ewen Wilson of the Bureau of the Census, Joseph Reilly of NASS, Dwight Gadsby of USDA’s Economic Research Ser-vice, and Katherine Wallman and Paul Bugg of the Office of Management and Budget.

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To stay true to the past, present, and future theme of the celebration, Allen Heishman II, Virginia FFA President, spoke about ag leadership in the future.

The patio in the USDA Whitten Building provided the perfect background for this historical occasion.

Descendents of Assistant Secretary of Agriculture Willet Hays attended the celebration, which includ-ed a salute to Hays for his contributions to the Crop Reporting Board. Rich Allen (front row, center) was able to locate Hays’ descendents in Texas and Or-egon.

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Rich Allen, ASB Chairman, attended the celebration in costume as a salute to Willet Hays. Ruth Bascom, granddaughter of Willet Hays, was pleased to help him cut the ceremonial cake.

Appendix F: About the Author

Rich Allen dedi-cated 42 years ofservice to the U.S.Department of Ag-riculture’s NationalAgricultural Statis-ticsService(NASS).Having earned aBachelor of SciencedegreeinAgricultur-al Economics fromIowa State Univer-sityin1963,heim-mediatelybeganhis

careerwithNASS in the IowaFieldOffice.RichlaterreturnedtoIowaStateUniversityin1967tostudystatisticsaspartoftheNASSfull-timetrain-ingprogram.

BeforeretiringonOct.3,2005,Rich’sre-markable career included serving as a leader, rolemodel,mentor, career advisor for junior employ-ees, and a guardian of policies and procedureswithinthestatisticalcommunity.Inaddition,asarepresentativeoftheagency’sstatisticalprogramhetraveledtoSpain,Pakistan,Germany,Switzerland,Italy,Canada,Mexico,Sweden,andChina. Several noteworthy career highlights in-clude:Member,SeniorExecutiveServicefornear-ly23years;DeputyDirector,IllinoisFieldOffice;Leader,ListFrameProjectTeam;Director,SurveyDivision;Director,EstimatesDivision;Chair,Ag-riculturalStatisticsBoardfor15years;Chair,Pro-gramPlanningCouncilfor18years;Chair,HumanResourcesCouncilfor15years;DeputyAdministra-torforPrograms;AssociateAdministrator;DeputyAdministrator,ProgramsandProducts;Instructor,

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USDA Graduate School; and Agency Ethics andFreedomofInformationActOfficer,thedecidingofficialonallrequestsforspecialdatatabulations,datasharing,andconfidentialdataanalyses. Richearnedmanyhonors throughouthiscareer,including:Fellow,AmericanStatisticalAs-sociation;Recipient,AmericanStatisticalAssocia-tionFoundersandOutstandingChapterMemberAwards;Recipient,WashingtonStatisticalSocietyJulius ShiskinAward forEconomicStatistics andPresidents’Awards;andFirstRecipient,JeanneE.

GriffithMentoringAwardforwhichtherewere43secondingletterstothenominationwithinNASSand7outsideNASS;andTwiceRecipient,SeniorExecutiveServiceMeritoriousRankAward. Publications and papers by Rich include:TheEvolutionofAgriculturalDataCollection intheUnitedStates;LongRangePlanningforaSta-tisticalAgency;StandardsforEvaluatingandUsingAdministrativeData;Customer-DrivenQualityinthe National Agricultural Statistics Service; andCustomer-DrivenDataSuppression.

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U.S.DepartmentofAgriculture,StatisticalReportingService.(1966,July).AgriculturalSituation: Onehundredyearsofcropreporting,1866-1966(Vol.50,No.7).Washington,DC.U.S.DepartmentofAgriculture,StatisticalReportingService.(1966,October14).Centennial dinner,celebrating100yearsofcontinuouscropandlivestockreportingfortheentireUnited States.[Program].Washington,DC.U.S.DepartmentofAgriculture,StatisticalReportingService.(1969).ThestoryofU.S.agricultural estimates,MiscellaneousPublicationNo.1088.Washington,DC.VanBiema,D.(1988,November13).Talkingjobs,eightWashingtonworkerstellwhytheydowhat theydo.TheWashingtonPostMagazine,30-31.Wolfert,I.(1955,August).Dramabehindthecropforecasts.ReadersDigest,67,107-111.

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