safewind advances in short-term wind power forecasting with focus on "extreme" ...

SafeWindAdvances in Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting with Focuson "Extreme" SituationsGeorge KariniotakisHead of Renewables & SmartGrids R&D GroupMINES ParisTech - [email protected]

EWEA 2012,16-19 April 2012, Copenhagen, Denmark

Introduction

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Source: EWEA

• Ambitious targets for wind integration in EU

• Challenges for the power system management

• Short-term forecasting of wind generation is recognized as a prerequisite for an efficient wind integration

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Introduction

• The actual wind power forecasting technology is quite mature

• However, in some situations large forecast errors may have an important impact on power system operation

Example in Germany:

Path of low-pressure system was different than predicted,

Maximum error: 5500 MW…

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Introduction

• The actual wind power forecasting technology is quite mature

• However, in some situations large forecast errors may have an important impact on power system operation

• The SafeWind project was developed to improve wind power predictability in challenging and extreme situations.

– at various temporal scales (very short to longer term)

– at various spatial scales (local/regional/continental)

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The SafeWind Project

9 countries22 partners

2008-2012

Coordination ARMINES/

MINES ParisTech

End-users

http://www.safewind.eu

Research

Industry

MeteorologistsINT

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L, I N

DIA

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Scientific & Technical Objectives (1)

• New forecasting methods for wind generation focusing on uncertainty and challenging situations/extremes:

o Probabilistic models

o Event forecasting models (ramps, cut-offs)

o Spatio-temporal correction models

o Regime switching models

o Prediction scenarios

o …

– Methodologies for communicating probabilistic forecasts & risks

Highlight: Ramps forecasting using ensembles

New approach for probabilistic prediction of ramp events:• Prediction of ramps occurrence and timing. • Based on ensembles. • Ramps detection through a derivative filtering based on edge detection theory.

Results:• Controllable tradeoff between

ramp capture and forecast accuracy

• Reliable probabilistic forecasts with sharpness

• 5-15% performance increase with respect to climatology

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Highlight: Scenarios and their verification

Scenarios of wind power generation are a must-have for high-value decision-making, either• Using meteorological ensembles as input,

• Or based on probabilistic forecasts and spatio-temporal statistical models

Results :• A methodology for the

comparative verification of scenarios

• Methods to produce scenarios based on ECMWF ensemble forecasts or state-of-the-art probabilistic predictions

• Readily operational and used in practice

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Highlight: Spatio-temporal modelling for forecasting

New spatio-temporal forecasting approaches for the shorter term:• Wind farms are considered as measurement points• A spatio-temporal model is fitted on each wind farm using off site measurements• Improvement of wind power forecasts up to 18% (red when east, blue for west).

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Case: Denmark

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• Develop a "European vision" for wind power forecasting– Prepare the way for the coordinated management of 200+ GW

wind generation at European Scale.

Data from Synoptic Stations in Europe

Monitor the Wind Energy Weather over Europe in real-time with observation data from many different sources

• More than 2000 weather stations• 120 single wind farms• 19 regions• 1 met mast

SafeWindData Management System

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• Models for "alarming" for very short-term (0-6 h). Monitor/assess the wind energy weather situation over Europe Detect severe deviations in forecasts due to extreme events Issue alerts to users that a forecast error is occurring Produce improved updates of the prediction in the short-term

Alarming in Forecast Time Series (23/1/2009)for Eastern part of Germany (50 Hertz)

Pressure gradient deviation (forecast - AdHoc-Analysis)

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• Models for "warning" on the level of predictability in the medium-term (next day(s)).

Approaches based on ensembles and weather pattern identification

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• Develop research in meteorology oriented to wind power forecasting: – Deliver the meteorological component for skilful

probabilistic wind power forecasts:• look at various products specifically suited for wind energy and

extremes (i.e. new product - 100m winds) (next talk)• evaluate various ensemble forecasting configurations• wind energy oriented verification of ECMWF products• improving ensemble forecasts (wind & wind power)

– Stimulate the interaction between meteorologists and wind power communities

Highlight: Recalibrated ECMWF wind ensembles

Ensemble forecasts of wind speed and direction are of great value as input to wind power prediction• They need advanced post-processing (due to bias, lack of spread, etc.)

• They can be recalibrated with adaptive statistical techniques

Results:• ECMWF ensemble forecasts of

(u,v)-winds recalibrated for the whole Europe over the period 2007-2009

• Substantial improvement of various skill scores and diagnostics

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• Evaluate the impact of short-term wind predictability in the resource assessment phase:– when wind farms participate in an electricity market. – study if a tradeoff between wind potential and predictability can be

beneficial when selecting a site or expanding a portfolio

Terrain complexity

Flat Medium Complex

Wind potential

Predictability

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1 & 2 day-ahead wind power forecast error for Central Europe• Computed from COSMO-EU Forecasts and Analysis (German Weather Service)• Normalization with estimated wind energy yield RMSE [MWh/MWh]• Spatial fc error smoothing considered (here: size of a DSO control zone)

Highlight: Forecast Error Maps

day-ahead day-ahead

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2day-ahead 2day-ahead

See Posters PO 51 & PO109

Highlight: Extreme Wind Atlases-from global data to site use

New approach to obtain turbine design winds • Downscale the global data to obtain extreme winds for turbine sites. • Use mesoscale modelling to simulate the yearly strongest storms over areas of

different terrain complexity.• Use a post-processing to prepare the data for microscale modelling.

Results :• Extreme wind atlases for places of

various extreme weather mechanisms and terrain complexities.

• Reasonable agreement with measurements.

• Output ready for microscale modelling for particular turbine sites.

Generalized extreme wind atlas for Navara region in Spain

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m/s

• Analyse how new measurement technologies like Lidars can be beneficial for better evaluation of external conditions, resource assessment and forecasting purposes.

Høvsøre Large Wind Turbine Test Facility


Measurement campaigns at flat (DK) and complex (ES) terrains

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Anemos.eXtreme: On-line demo of new approaches

• On-line demonstration of SafeWind modules:– Integration of 8 new modules into the ANEMOS wind

power prediction platform– Demonstration /evaluation for various TSOs

• Test cases:SONI (N. Ireland/U.K.) EirGrid (Ireland)

EDF (France) RTE (France)

PPC (Crete, Greece)

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Conclusions

• Successful scientific production: >75 papers so far

• New approaches for forecasting in challenging situations

• The work methodology designed to enable quick transfer of results for operational use by industrial stakeholders

• Final project workshop: 31 August 2012, Paris

What comes next :

• Improving predictability requires continuous collaborative R&D

• Need to better integrate forecasts into power system management tools

• R&D in forecasting is promoted as a priority (i.e. through TPWind).

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Thank you for your attention

safewind advances in short-term wind power forecasting with focus on "extreme" ...

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