sakesan tongkhambanchong, ph.d.(applied behavioral science research)
DESCRIPTION
Statistical Analysis by SEM : From Theoretical Model to Hypothetical Model and Statistical Analysis. Sakesan Tongkhambanchong, Ph.D.(Applied Behavioral Science Research) Faculty of Education, Burapha University. Agenda. Introduction to SEM Research Process & Designs - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Statistical Analysis by SEM:From Theoretical Model to Hypothetical Model and
Statistical Analysis
Sakesan Tongkhambanchong, Ph.D.(Applied Behavioral Science Research)Faculty of Education, Burapha University
• Introduction to SEM– Research Process & Designs– Statistical Designs & Models– Variance & Covariance Matrix (CM) &
Correlation Matrix (KM)– LISREL’s Matrix –MRA: Multiple Regression Analysis by LISREL –MMRA: Multivariate Multiple Regression
Analysis by LISREL• Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) – First-order CFA – Second-order CFA
• Structural Equation Modeling (SEM)
Agenda
Conceptualization
What Research is?
Operationalization
Empirical Evidence
ระดับหลักการ แนวคิด
ระดับปฏิบติัการ
รายงานผลการวจิยั
ความรู-้ความเขา้ใจ(Cognitive Process)การประยุกต์ระเบยีบวธิวีจิยัสู่การปฏิบติั, การดำาเนินการอยา่งมีระบบเป็นการแสดงหลักฐาน และสื่อสารไปยงัประชาคมวจิยั
Knowledge Inquiry and Validation
Bouma Gary D. & G.B.J.Atkinson. (1995) A Handbook of Social Science Research. (p.3)
How we know, what we know and
How we know, we know
What Research is?
• Research is…
“…the systematic process of collecting and analyzing information (data) in order to increase our understanding of the phenomenon about which we are concerned or interested.”
Research Process
Interest Idea Theory
? YY ?
X YA B?? A B C D
E F G H I
ConceptualizationSpecify the meaning of
the concepts and variables to be studied.
OperationalizationHow will we actually
measure the variables under study?
Choice of Research MethodExperimental Research
Survey Research Field Research Content Analysis Existing Data Research Comparative Research Evaluation Research Mixed Design
Population & SamplingWhom do we want to be
able to draw conclusions about?Who will be observed for the purpose?
ObservationCollecting data for
analysis and interpretation
Data ProcessingTransforming the data collected into a form
appropriate to manipulation and analysis
AnalysisAnalyzing data and drawing conclusions
ApplicationReporting
results and assessing their implications.
1
2
5
7 9
3
6
4
8
Interest Idea Theory
? YY ?
X YA B?? A B C D
E F G H I
ConceptualizationSpecify the meaning of
the concepts and variables to be studied.
OperationalizationHow will we actually
measure the variables under study?
Choice of Research MethodExperimental Research
Survey Research Field ResearchContent Analysis Existing Data Research Comparative Research Evaluation Research Mixed Design
Population & SamplingWhom do we want to be
able to draw conclusions about?Who will be observed for the purpose?
ObservationCollecting data for
analysis and interpretation
Data ProcessingTransforming the data collected into a form
appropriate to manipulation and analysis
AnalysisAnalyzing data and drawing conclusions
ApplicationReporting
results and assessing their implications.
Measurement Design
Statistical Design
Sampling DesignResearch Design
Data Collection Design
Problem Formulating Design
Research Process <------> Research Design
1
2
5
7 9
3
6
4
8
Validity
&
Reliability
of
Research
Low Validity = Low Accuracy = High BiasLow Reliability = Low Precision = High Variance
Prob
abilit
y De
nsity
High VarianceLow Precision
Reference value
High BiasLow Accuracy
ValueParameter
Statistics
Low Validity and Low Reliability
Low Validity = Low Accuracy = High BiasHigh Reliability = High Precision = Low Variance
Prob
abilit
y De
nsity
High Precision
Low Variance
Reference value
High BiasLow Accuracy
ValueParameter
Statistics
Low Validity and High Reliability
Validity = Accuracy = Low BiasReliability = Precision = Low Variance
Prob
abilit
y De
nsity
Precision
Reference value
Accuracy
Value
Parameter
Statistics
Validity and Reliability of Research Finding
Discrepancy between Conceptual Model & Data Collection
AB
SN
PBC
Intention Behavior
Research Conceptual FrameworkHypothesized Model: Causal Model (if X then Y)Statistical Design: Structural Equation Model (SEM)
Time-1
Time-2
Time-3
Data Collection: Cross-sectional
DesignAll variables were
collected at the same 1-point of time
(1-point of time)
Nature of Model: Longitudinal Design(3-points of time)
EXAMPLES OF CAUSAL MODEL TESTING
Emotional
Capital
psychological well-being
Affect Balanc
e
Resilience
Ultimate Dependent
VariableMediator Variable
Exogenous Variable
Endogenous Variable
Independent Variable
Emotional
Capital
psychological well-being
Affect Balance
Resilience
Mindfulness
Ultimate Dependent
VariableMediator Variable
Exogenous Variable
Endogenous Variable
Independent Variable
Emotional
Capital
psychological well-being
Affect Balance
Resilience
Mindfulness
Ultimate Dependent
VariableMediator Variable
Exogenous Variable
Endogenous Variable
Independent Variable
Moderator Variable
Emotional
Capital
psychological well-being
Affect Balance
Resilience
Mindfulness
Ultimate Dependent
VariableMediator Variable
Exogenous Variable
Endogenous Variable
Independent Variable
Research Conceptual FrameworkTheory of Planned Behavior :TPB (Ajzen, 1991)
Hypothesized Model & Number of Parameter Estimation
Testing Hypothesized Model & Parameter Estimated
Last Trimming Model & Parameter Estimated
Hypothetical
Model
&
Statistical
Models
10
X
1 00 10 0
1 0 00 1 00 0 10 0 0
d1
d2
d1
d2
d3
Observed variable (Nominal Scale)
Observed variable(Interval Scale)
1 Latent
variable
Causal relationshipRelationship
d1
1
Statistical Model: Symbols
Y
Mean
Mode
Median(Y)
Mean
Mode
Median
(X1)
Mean
Mode
Median
(X2)
Mean
Mode
Median
(X3)
Descriptive Statistics: How Importance?Central Tendency: Mean, Mode, MedianDispersion: Variance, Standard Deviation, Average Deviation
2X1 2
X2 2X3 2
Y
Statistical Analysis: Descriptive Statistics
Statistical Analysis: Mean, Mode, Median, AD, SD, SD2
X MeanA 5 5 0 0 0 AB 5 5 0 0 0 BC 5 5 0 0 0 CD 5 5 0 0 0 DE 5 5 0 0 0 EF 5 5 0 0 0 FG 5 5 0 0 0 GH 5 5 0 0 0 HI 5 5 0 0 0 IJ 5 5 0 0 0 J
Sum (S) 50 50 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9Mean 5 5 0 0.00 0.00 SD2
AD 0.00 SD Me Mo Md
(X-M)2Abs[x-M]No. Data 1 Different (X-M)
X MeanA 1 5 -4 4 16B 2 5 -3 3 9C 3 5 -2 2 4D 4 5 -1 1 1E 5 5 0 0 0F 5 5 0 0 0G 6 5 1 1 1H 7 5 2 2 4I 8 5 3 3 9 EJ 9 5 4 4 16 A B C D F G H I J
Sum (S) 50 50 0 20 60 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9Mean 5 5 0 2.00 6.00 SD2
AD 2.45 SD Me Mo Md
(X-M)2Abs[x-M]No. Data 2 Different (X-M)
Statistical Analysis: Mean, Mode, Median, AD, SD, SD2
X MeanA 1 5 -4 4 16B 1 5 -4 4 16C 3 5 -2 2 4D 3 5 -2 2 4E 5 5 0 0 0F 5 5 0 0 0G 7 5 2 2 4H 7 5 2 2 4I 9 5 4 4 16 A C E G IJ 9 5 4 4 16 B D F H J
Sum (S) 50 50 0 24 80 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9Mean 5 5 0 2.40 8.00 SD2
AD 2.83 SD Mo Mo Mo MoMe,Mdn
No. Data 3 Different (X-M) Abs[x-M] (X-M)2
X MeanA 1 5 -4 4 16B 1 5 -4 4 16C 2 5 -3 3 9D 2 5 -3 3 9E 5 5 0 0 0F 5 5 0 0 0G 8 5 3 3 9H 8 5 3 3 9I 9 5 4 4 16 A C E G IJ 9 5 4 4 16 B D F H J
Sum (S) 50 50 0 28 100 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9Mean 5 5 0 2.80 10.00 SD2
AD 3.16 SD Mo Mo Mo Mo
Abs[x-M]
Me,Mdn
No. Data 4 Different (X-M) (X-M)2
Statistical Analysis: Mean, Mode, Median, AD, SD, SD2
X MeanA 1 5 -4 4 16B 2 5 -3 3 9C 3 5 -2 2 4D 2 5 -3 3 9E 1 5 -4 4 16F 7 5 2 2 4G 8 5 3 3 9H 9 5 4 4 16I 9 5 4 4 16 E D J IJ 8 5 3 3 9 A B C F G H
Sum (S) 50 50 0 32 108 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9Mean 5 5 0 3.20 10.80 SD2
AD 3.29 SD Mo Mo Me,Mdn Mo Mo
Data 5 Different (X-M)
(X-M)2Abs[x-M]No.
X MeanA 1 5 -4 4 16B 1 5 -4 4 16C 1 5 -4 4 16D 1 5 -4 4 16E 1 5 -4 4 16F 9 5 4 4 16 E JG 9 5 4 4 16 D IH 9 5 4 4 16 C HI 9 5 4 4 16 B GJ 9 5 4 4 16 A F
Sum (S) 50 50 0 40 160 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9Mean 5 5 0 4.00 16.00 SD2
AD 4.00 SD Mo Me,Mdn Mo
Abs[x-M]No. Data 6 Different (X-M) (X-M)2
Bivariate relationship
(Correlation)
2X1 2
X2 2X3 2
Y
Cov (X1,Y)
Cov (X1,X2
)
Cov (X1,X3
) Cov (X2,X3
)
Cov (X2,Y)
Cov (X3,Y)
Bivariate: Variables, Variance & Covariance
Bivariate Correlation Analysis (rxy)
YX
rx
yYX
?
Z
? ?
r*xy = (rxy)/sqrt(rxx*ryy)
Measurement error = 0, reliability = 1
r*xy = (0.90)/(1.0*1.0)
= (0.90)/(1.0) = 0.90
0.90
r*xy =
(0.90)/(0.60*0.70) = (0.90)/(0.648) = 1.389
If rxx or ryy 1.00 , Measurement error 0
Bivariate Correlation (r > 1)
Statistical Model: The Meaning of r = 0The Misconception: If Pearson’s product–moment correlation, rxy, turns out equal to 0.00, this indicates that there is no relationship between the X and Y scores used to compute that correlation coefficient.Pearson’s r works well only if the relationship between X and Y is linear. If the relationship between the two variables is curvilinear, the value for r will underestimate the strength of the existing relationship
Statistical Model: The Strange of r
Statistical Model: The Meaning of r = 0
Statistical Model: Relationship Strength and r
The Misconception: If the data on two variables having similar distributional shapes are correlated using Pearson’s r, the resulting correlation coefficient can land anywhere on a continuum that extends from 0.00 to ±1.00; therefore,an r of +.50 (or –.50) indicates that the measured relationship is half as strong as it possibly could be.Pearson’s r: 1.0 = Perfect correlation
0.8 = Strong correlation 0.5 = Moderate correlation 0.2 = Weak correlation
0.00 = No correlation
Statistical Model: The Meaning of r & r2 The coefficient of determination, r2 , is a better measureof relationship strength than the correlation coefficient, r. This is because the square of r indicates the proportion of variability in one of the two variables that is explained by variability in the other variable
Statistical Model: The Meaning of r (why r> 0.30)30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130
t-table 1.700 1.680 1.680 1.670 1.670 1.660 1.660 1.660 1.650 1.640 1.640df 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130
rxy 1-r2 root(1-r2) t-value t-value t-value t-value t-value t-value t-value t-value t-value t-value t-value0.100 0.990 0.995 0.532 0.620 0.696 0.765 0.829 0.888 0.943 0.995 1.044 1.092 1.1370.150 0.978 0.989 0.803 0.935 1.051 1.155 1.251 1.340 1.423 1.502 1.577 1.648 1.7160.200 0.960 0.980 1.080 1.258 1.414 1.555 1.683 1.803 1.915 2.021 2.121 2.217 2.3090.250 0.938 0.968 1.366 1.592 1.789 1.966 2.129 2.280 2.422 2.556 2.683 2.805 2.9210.300 0.910 0.954 1.664 1.939 2.179 2.395 2.593 2.777 2.950 3.113 3.268 3.416 3.5580.350 0.878 0.937 1.977 2.303 2.589 2.845 3.081 3.300 3.505 3.699 3.883 4.059 4.2270.400 0.840 0.917 2.309 2.690 3.024 3.324 3.599 3.854 4.094 4.320 4.536 4.741 4.9380.450 0.798 0.893 2.666 3.106 3.491 3.838 4.155 4.450 4.727 4.988 5.237 5.474 5.7010.500 0.750 0.866 3.055 3.559 4.000 4.397 4.761 5.099 5.416 5.715 6.000 6.272 6.5320.550 0.698 0.835 3.485 4.060 4.563 5.015 5.431 5.816 6.178 6.519 6.844 7.154 7.4510.600 0.640 0.800 3.969 4.623 5.196 5.712 6.185 6.624 7.036 7.425 7.794 8.147 8.4850.650 0.578 0.760 4.526 5.273 5.926 6.514 7.053 7.554 8.024 8.467 8.889 9.291 9.6770.700 0.510 0.714 5.187 6.042 6.791 7.465 8.083 8.657 9.195 9.703 10.186 10.648 11.0900.750 0.438 0.661 6.000 6.990 7.856 8.635 9.350 10.014 10.637 11.225 11.784 12.317 12.8290.800 0.360 0.600 7.055 8.219 9.238 10.154 10.995 11.776 12.508 13.199 13.856 14.484 15.0850.850 0.278 0.527 8.538 9.947 11.179 12.289 13.306 14.251 15.137 15.974 16.769 17.528 18.2550.900 0.190 0.436 10.926 12.728 14.305 15.725 17.026 18.235 19.369 20.440 21.457 22.429 23.3600.950 0.098 0.312 16.099 18.755 21.079 23.170 25.089 26.870 28.541 30.119 31.618 33.049 34.421
sample size(n)
Criteria
The Misconception: A single outlier cannot greatly influence the value of Pearson’s r, especially if N is large.Pearson’s r:
Statistical Model: The Effect of a Single Outlier on r
Statistical Model: The Effect of a Single Outlier on r
STATISTICAL MODEL
ANALYSIS USINGDEPENDENT TECHNIQUES
Sakesan Tongkhambanchong, Ph.D (Applied Behavioral Science Research)
10X
1Y
One-way ANOVA (Independent sample t-test)
Ypo
stYpre
One-way ANOVA with repeated measured (Dependent sample t-test)
One Factor Within-subjects Design
?
?
Different
DifferentChange, Gain, Development
One Factor Between-subjects DesignDirect effects
Direct effects
X1
Y
1 00 10 0
One-way ANOVA (F-test)
YT2YT1
One-way ANOVA with repeated measured
Within-subjects Design
YT2
?
? ??
Between-subjects DesignDirect effects
10X
1 Y
Two-way ANOVA (non-additive model) -- > Interaction effects
X2
1 00 10 0
?Main effect
?Main effect
Interaction effect
?Between-subjects Design
Y
10
10
1 00 10 0
Multi-way ANOVA (Non-additive model) (the interactive structure)X1
X2
X3
Between-subjects Design
Y
One-way Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA) additive model
X1
1 00 10 0
(Covariate)
X1
? Between-subjects Design
Bivariate Correlation Analysis (rxy)
YX
rx
y YX Z
Cov(x,y)
rx
y
ry
z
rx
z
Cov(x,z)
Cov(y,z)
Cov(x,y)
Standardized Score
Raw Score
X1
X2
X3
Y
Simple Regression Analysis (SRA)Multiple Regression Analysis (MRA) (Convergent Causal structure)
No Correlatio
n(r = 0)
Direct effects
y.x1
y.x2
y.x3X Yy.x
YX
rx
y
X1
X2
X3
Multivariate Multiple Regression Analysis (MMR)(Convergent Causal structure two or several times)
Y1
Y2
Direct effects
No Correlatio
n(r = 0)
10
X1
X2
X3
Two-groups Discriminant Analysis (Discriminant structure)Binary Logistic Regression Analysis
(Y)
W
W
W
Direct effects
No Correlatio
n(r = 0)
X1
X2
X3
Multiple Discriminant Analysis(Discriminant Structure with more than two population groups)
1 00 10 0
(Y)
W
W
W
Direct effects
No Correlatio
n(r = 0)
Y1
10
10
1 00 10 0
Multivariate Analysis of Variance -- MANOVA(Interactive Structure two or several times)
Y2
X1X2
X3
ANALYSIS USINGINTERDEPENDENT
TECHNIQUES
Sakesan Tongkhambanchong, Ph.D (Applied Behavioral Science Research)
U1 V1
Canonical variates
(Independent)
Canonical variates
(Dependent)
U2 V2
RC1, 1
X1
X2
X3
X4
Y1
Y2
Set of Independe
nt variables
Set of Dependent variables
Canonical Function-1
RC2, 2
Canonical Loading2
Canonical Loading2
Simple Correlatio
n
Simple Correlatio
n
Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA)
Canonical weight
Canonical Weight
Canonical Function-2
FACTOR ANALYSIS:PCA & EFA & CFA
Sakesan Tongkhambanchong, Ph.D (Applied Behavioral Science Research)
(Conceptualization)
High
Low(Operationalizatio
n)
Leve
l of A
bstra
ctio
n
Concept &
Construct
Variables
Indicator Indicator Indicator
Item Item Item Item Item Item Item Item Item
Conceptual Definition
Theoretical Definition
Real Definition
Operational Definition(How to
measured?)
Generalized idea
Communication
Real world Hypothesis testing
TimeSpace
Context
Test-1 Test-2 Test-n
From Conceptualization to Operationalization & Measurement
Y
X
y1y2
x1x2x3
y3
Formative Indicator Model
Reflective Indicator Model
1
1
2
3
1
Formative & Reflective Indicator Model
Principle Component Analysis (PCA)
2
3
1
X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7 X8 X9
The Component Loading or the Structure/Pattern Coefficient
Factor structure / Component / Dimensions / Unmeasured variables
Measured variables (Observed) / Indicators / Items
Measured variables
(Observed) / Indicators /
Items
Factor structure /
Component / Dimensions / Unmeasured
variables
2
3
1
X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7 X8
The Factor Loading or the Structure/Pattern Coefficient
Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) with Orthogonal Rotation
Measured variables
(Observed) / Indicators /
Items
Factor structure /
Component / Dimensions / Unmeasured
variables
Errors or Uniqueness
Measured variables
(Observed) / Indicators /
Items
2
3
1
X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7 X8 X9
The Factor Loading or the Structure/Pattern Coefficient
Factor structure /
Component / Dimensions / Unmeasured
variables
Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) with Oblique Rotation
Errors or Uniqueness
2,1
3,1 3,
2
2
3
1
X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7 X8 X9
The Factor Loading or the Structure/Pattern Coefficient
Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA)
2,1
3,1 3,
2
Some Errors are correlated
Some Factors are correlated/ Some Factors are not correlated
2,11,1 3,1 4,2 5,2 6,2 7,3 8,3 9,3 Measured variables
(Observed) / Indicators /
Items
Factor structure /
Component / Dimensions / Unmeasured
variables
Errors or Uniqueness
12345678
91011121314151617
18192021222324252627
282930313233
x1x2x3x4x5x6x7x8
x9x10x11x12x13x14x15x16x17
x18x19x20x21x22x23x24x25x26x27
x28x29x30x31x32x33
F-1
F-2
F-3
F-4
First-order Confirmatory Factor Analytic Model
2,1
3,2
4,3
3,1
4,2
4,1
First-order Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA)
12345678
91011121314151617
18192021222324252627
282930313233
x1x2x3x4x5x6x7x8
x9x10x11x12x13x14x15x16x17
x18x19x20x21x22x23x24x25x26x27
x28x29x30x31x32x33
F-1
F-2
F-3
F-4
F-A
F-B
Second-order Confirmatory Factor Analytic Model
Second-order Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA)
First
, Sec
ond-
orde
r Fac
tor
Anal
ysis
First-order CFA and Second-order CFA
M-1
x1x2x3x4x5x6x7x8
x9x10x11x12x13x14x15x16x17
x18x19x20x21x22x23x24x25x26x27
x28x29x30x31x32x33
LV-1
LV-2
LV-3
LV-4
M-2
Stat
istica
l Des
ign:
Mul
titra
its-
Mul
timet
hods
Mat
rix
First-order CFA and Multitrait-Multimethod Matrix (MTMM)
ANALYSIS USINGDEPENDENT & INTERDEPENDENT
TECHNIQUES
Sakesan Tongkhambanchong, Ph.D (Applied Behavioral Science Research)
Y
X1
X2
X3
Causal Modeling I: Path Analysis with Observed Variables
Y
X1
X2
X5X4
Total Effect = Direct + Indirect Effects
Total Effect = Direct + Indirect Effects
X3
2
1,1
2,1
3,1
2 Y6,
2
Y4,
2Y5,
2
1X3,
1
X1,
1X2,
1
2X6,
2
X4,
2X5,
2
1Y3,
1
Y1,
1Y2,
1
Causal Modeling II: Path Analysis with Latent Variables Linear Structural Equation Modeling (SEM)
4,2
1,1
5,2
6,3
2,1
3,1
4,2
5,2
6,2
1
Total Effect = Direct + Indirect Effects
SEM = [Path Analysis + Confirmatory Factor Analysis]
Multiple Regression Analysis: MRMultivariate Multiple Regression
Analysis: MMRPath Analysis: PA
LISREL Programs
Multiple Regression Analysis: MR
Y
X1
X2
X3
Independent variables
Dependent variables
No
Correlation
(r = 0)
Direct effects
y.x1
y.x2
y.x3
TI Regression Model
DA NO=250 NI=4 MA=CM
LAY X1 X2 X3
KM1.0000.470 1.0000.516 0.652 1.0000.485 0.506 0.479 1.000
ME6.638 6.338 6.420 6.634
SD1.928 1.945 1.800 1.921
MO NY=1 NX=3 GA=FU PH=SY PS=SY
PA GA1 1 1
PA PH10 10 0 1
PDOU SE TV RS MR EF SS SC MI ND=3 AD=OFF
Multivariate Multiple Regression Analysis: MMR
Y1A
B
C
Independent variables
Dependent variables
No
Correlation
(r = 0)
Direct effects
y1.x
1
y.x2
y1.x
3
TI Testing MMRDA NI=6 NO=320 MA=CMLA Y1 Y2 A B C D KM SY1.0000.269 1.0000.440 0.227 1.000 0.313 0.298 0.175 1.0000.490 0.319 0.501 0.436 1.0000.276 0.262 0.240 0.352 0.424 1.000
ME93.94 87.57 24.47 86.12 110.45 96.27 SD6.347 6.422 3.524 5.416 9.145 6.046 MO NX=4 NY=2 GA=FU PH=SY PS=SY
PA GA1 1 1 11 1 1 1
PA PH10 10 0 10 0 0 1
PA PS10 1
PDOU SE TV RS MR MI ND=3 AD=OFF
D y.1x4 Y2
y2.x
1
y2.x2
y.2x3
y2.x4
Path Analysis with Observed Variable: PA
M1
X1
X2
X3
Independent
variables
Dependent variables
No Correlation(r = 0)
Total effect = Direct effects + Indirect effect
M2
Y
X4
X5
TI Path analysisDA NI=8 NO=320 MA=KM
LAM1 M2 Y X1 X2 X3 X4 X5
KM SY1.000.40 1.000.70 0.60 1.000.40 0.10 0.20 1.000.60 0.10 0.20 0.20 1.00-.40 0.10 0.20 -.20 0.20 1.000.10 0.50 0.20 0.10 0.10 0.10 1.000.10 0.50 0.20 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.20 1.00
MO NX=5 NY=3 GA=FU BE=SD PH=SY PS=SY
PA GA1 1 1 0 00 0 0 1 10 0 0 0 0
PA BE0 0 01 0 01 1 0
PA PH10 10 0 10 0 0 10 0 0 0 1
PA PS10 10 0 1
PDOU SE TV RS MR EF SC MI=OFF ND=2
Research as a Causal ChainFor want of a nail, the shoe was lost.For want of the shoe, the horse was lost.For want of the horse, the rider was lost.For want of the rider, the battle was lost.For want of the battle, the kingdom was lost.And all for the want of a nail.
หากขาดตะปูแค่ตัวเดียว เกือกมา้อาจจะหลดุได้หากไมม่เีกือกมา้ มา้ก็ไมอ่าจใชง้าน
และหากขาดซึง่มา้ ก็ไมอ่าจสง่เอกสารท่ีสำาคัญและเมื่อหากขาดซึง่เอกสารท่ีสำาคัญ การศึกก็อาจจะ
ปราชยัและเมื่อการศึกปราชยั ก็จะสิน้สญูอาณาจกัร
และทกุสิง่น้ีเป็นเหตมุาจากการขาดซึง่ตะปูแค่ตัวเดียว
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