salinas and carmel rivers basin study...carollo – seema chavan and lydia holmes. introductions –...

Monterey Peninsula Water Mngmnt DistrictMonterey County Water Resources AgencySan Luis Obispo County, Dept. of PWsMonterey One WaterBureau of Reclamation

Salinas and Carmel Rivers Basin Study

Stakeholder MeetingApril 8 and 9, 2020

• Web Meeting Ground Rules (Mark Millan)

• Introductions (Ankur Bhattacharya)

• Meeting Purpose (Ankur Bhattacharya)

• Basin Study Overview (Ankur Bhattacharya)

• Salinas and Carmel Rivers Basin Study Approach (Melanie Holton)

• Technical Analysis Overview (Mike Savage, Ian Ferguson, Melanie Holton, Lydia Holmes)

• Related and Integrated Activities (Mike Savage)

• Next steps (Ankur Bhattacharya)

Meeting Agenda Speaking: Ankur Bhattacharya

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• Study Partners– Monterey County Water Resources Agency– San Luis Obispo County – Flood Control and Water Conservation District– Monterey Peninsula Water Management District– Monterey One Water

• US Bureau of Reclamation – Ankur Bhattacharya and Ian Ferguson– Arlan Nickel retired 1/31/20

• US Geological Survey – Wes Henson

• Consultants– Brown and Caldwell – Melanie Holton– Data Instincts – Mark Millan and Mike Savage– Bryant and Associates – Ginger Bryant– Carollo – Seema Chavan and Lydia Holmes

Introductions – Basin Study Team Speaking: Ankur Bhattacharya

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Meeting Purpose

• Describe Basin Study background and process• Summarize efforts to-date for Salinas Carmel

Rivers Basin Study• Provide opportunity for input from Stakeholders

Speaking: Ankur Bhattacharya

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Basin Study Overview


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WaterSMART Program• Authorized under the SECURE Water Act, Public

Law 111-11

• Established in 2009– Assist water managers in making sound decisions

about water use– Ensure sufficient future water supplies– Propose adaptive strategies to address climate

change impacts– Improve water conservation– Promote long-term sustainability

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Presenter

Presentation Notes

The SECURE Water Act authorizes federal water and science agencies to work together with state and local water managers to: -Plan for climate change and the other threats to our water supplies; and -Take action to secure our water resources for the communities, economies, and the ecosystems they support

Basin Studies

• Purpose – Work with state and local partners to

• Analyze climate change impacts to water supplies and demands• Identify and evaluate strategies to address current and projected

supply-demand imbalances• Basin Studies are required to analyze potential climate impacts to

– Hydroelectric power facilities– Fish & wildlife habitats - ESA impacts– Water-dependent recreation facilities– Water quality/salinity– Flood control management

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1. Develop methodology and overall approach to each study – what to put into models? How to model certain features? Etc.

2. Gather information on changing- climate conditions, water supply and management, regulatory landscape, etc.

3. Develop an extensive model and adaptation strategies to mitigate potential risks identified in future projections

4. Group like strategies together to develop portfolios – ensure enough detail for Pilot Study

5. Once portfolios are developed/evaluated, end results are the presentations of performance under the various portfolios

6. Technical Sufficiency Review

Basin Study Approach

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Presenter

Presentation Notes

What do the partners need to zero in on and what do they need to weigh-in on? – specifically identify what we want from the partners Remind partners we have discussed these things = weight slides based on TMs 3 and 4 more than TM 1 and 2.

Basin Studies are not meant to be decision-making documents• Designed to identify potential water supply reliability risks within a water basin• Designed to provide several paths forward w/ enough detail to start further

investigation– As Basin Studies are broad overviews, keep deep dives to a minimum.

Instead, feedback which helps us develop a more comprehensive overview is extremely valuable!

Keeping the Purpose and Future in Mind

Water Management Options Pilot (WMOP) Program• WaterSMART Program to further develop Adaptation Strategies/ Portfolios

identified in completed Basin Studies– Portfolios will be developed with enough information/ detail needed to

enable further investigations via WMOPs

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Salinas and Carmel Rivers Basin Study Approach

Speaking: Melanie Holton

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Salinas Carmel Rivers Basin Study Proposal/Grant Application

• Originally submitted 2014, resubmitted in 2015 with significant input by USBR & USGS

• Major objectives 1. Improved regional collaboration 2. ID risk of climate change 3. Develop strategies to fill gaps in supply

• Partners bringing to the table– Significant amount of past studies, data on supply/demand– Existing models and tools to use for evaluations– Well established stakeholder groups and processes (IRWM)– In kind contribution of past studies, models and staff time

for regional collaboration and stakeholder outreach


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Presenter

Presentation Notes

Why this slide? – we have been at this for a while, a process Is this slide needed?

Salinas and Carmel Rivers Basin Study (SCRBS) Approach

Ancillary Tasks: Communication and Outreach, Meetings Data Management

Program Activities & Schedule

Stakeholder Engagement

TM 2. Future Climate and Sea Level Scenarios

TM 1. Develop Study Metrics

TM 3. Socioeconomic Scenarios

TM 4. Model Tools and Inputs

Orientation, Meetings, Review In

formation

Study Partners


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Presenter

Presentation Notes

Two slides -break after 1,2,3,4 – back ground information







TM 6. Adaptation & Mitigation Strategies

TM 5. Evaluate Supplies, Demands & Operations

TM 7. Evaluate Adaptation & Mitigation

Strategies

Basin Study Executive Summary




formation

Study Partners Study Partners Study Partners Study Partners


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TM 6. Adaptation & Mitigation Strategies

TM 5. Evaluate Supplies, Demands & Operations

TM 7. Evaluate Adaptation & Mitigation

Strategies

Basin Study Executive Summary




formation

Study Partners Study Partners Study Partners Study Partners


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Presenter

Presentation Notes

Add in the next analysis step – we are here now.

Technical Memorandum (TM)Analysis Overview

Content overview:

• TM 1. Develop Study Metrics (Mike Savage)

• TM 2. Future Climate and Sea Level Scenarios (Ian Ferguson)

• TM 3. Socioeconomic Scenarios (Melanie Holton)

• TM 4. Model Tools and Inputs (Melanie Holton)

Break for moderator to request input (Mark Millan)

Approach overview:

• TM 5. Evaluate Supplies, Demands, and Operations (Ian Ferguson)

• TM 6. Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies (Lydia Holmes)

• TM 7. Evaluate Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies (Melanie Holton)

Break for moderator to request input (Mark Millan)


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TM 1: Study Objectives and Metrics

Speaking: Mike Savage

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Approach to Developing Study Objectives

• Integration of regional planning documents

– GSA studies– Stormwater studies– North Monterey Drought Contingency

Plan

• Targeted approach to considering agricultural water use

– Use hybrid data set to ensure parity between urban and agricultural land and water uses

• Consider impacts of socioeconomic factors on future water supplies and demands

Speaking: Mike Savage

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Category ObjectiveWater supplies and demands Project future water supply and demand considering changes in climate, runoff, groundwater recharge and discharge,

water demands, and reservoir evaporation.

Groundwater

Attain or maintain target groundwater levels and storagePrevent or reduce seawater intrusionMaintain groundwater qualityPrevent land subsidenceAttain or maintain beneficial use of interconnected surface water

Flood protection Analyze impacts of supply changesPrevent damage to urban areas and agriculture

Climate change Analyze performance of infrastructure considering climate change, extreme events, and population growthUnderstand and plan for climate change impacts

Water quality

Analyze impacts of supply changes

Meet drinking water standardsMeet waste discharge criteriaMeet reuse criteria

Environmental

Analyze impacts of supply changesManage invasive species Maintain species and habitatMeet instream flow requirements

Hydroelectric power and recreation Analyze impacts of supply changesMaintain or increase hydropower generation

Stakeholder support and regional collaboration Improve collaboration between urban, rural, and agricultural, as well as regional, state, and federal entities

Adaptation and mitigation strategies

Identify effective adaptation and mitigation strategiesImprove reliability and sustainability of water suppliesDiversify water suppliesMaximize water conservation

Selected Basin Study ObjectivesSpeaking: Mike Savage

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• Objectives are needed to develop and evaluate adaptation and mitigation strategies

• Early identification of objectives was done to ensure modeling and analyses will provide needed information

• TM No. 1 identifies– Proposed Basin Study objectives– Metrics used to evaluate supplies, demands, and imbalances; to evaluate impacts

of climate/socioeconomic scenarios; and to evaluate benefits of adaptation/mitigation strategies

TM 1. Develop Study Metrics: Key TakeawaysSpeaking: Mike Savage

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TM2: Future Climate and Sea Level Scenarios

Speaking: Ian Ferguson

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Presenter

Presentation Notes

Ian present

• Objective: Develop climate scenarios for detailed analysis

• Approach: Observed climate variability + projected climate change– Baseline scenario

• Observed climate (1931-2015), trends removed

– Future scenarios• Future Scenario = Baseline Scenario + Projected Climate Change

Development of Future Climate Scenarios

Observed Climate Variability – Daily to

Interannual Timescales

Projected Climate Change – Decadal and

Longer Timescales


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• Objective: Identify a representative sea-level rise (SLR) projection for use in the Basin Study

• Approach: Review existing scientific literature and SLR projections, select representative projection as SLR scenario for Basin Study– Single SLR scenario paired with all climate/socio-economic scenarios– Conservative (worst case) scenario

Development of Future Sea-Level ScenarioSpeaking: Ian Ferguson

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Sea-Level Scenario

• Scenario selected based on California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment and use in prior studies (Pajaro)

• Scenario reflects conservative (worst case) conditions

Scenario based on CanESM2 99.9th percentile probabilistic projection


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Presenter

Presentation Notes

Use this as an example Ian present

Summary of Basin Study Climate and Sea-Level Scenarios

Scenario

Projected Change between 1980-2009 and 2070-2099:

Annual Average Precipitation

Annual Average Temperature

Annual Average Sea-Level

1. Hot-Wet + ~ 20% + ~7.5°F + 10.1 ft*

2. Hot-Dry – ~10% + ~3.1°F + 10.1 ft*

3. Warm-Wet + ~20% + ~7.5°F + 10.1 ft*

4. Warm-Dry – ~10% + ~3.1°F + 10.1 ft*

5. Central Tendency + ~ 1% + ~4.8°F + 10.1 ft*

* Change in sea-level provided in terms of equivalent freshwater head.


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Presenter

Presentation Notes

Consider how to mention Baseline scenario

TM 2: Future Climate and Sea Level Scenarios: Key Takeaways

• Scientific consensus – Climate is changing & will continue to change impacts to water supply/demand– Climate change will drive sea-level rise potential impacts to coastal aquifers

• Key Basin Study Objective– Analysis of climate change impacts on water supplies and demands

• TM 2 details future climate and sea-level scenarios– Five future climate scenarios span uncertainty in projected future climate– One future sea-level scenario conservative (worst case) future conditions


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TM 3: Socioeconomic Scenarios


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Socioeconomic Scenarios Hybrid Approach

Urban

Current population data

Most recent population data for cities, communities, and unincorporated areas

Population projections

Low, medium, and high growth based on 2014 California Water Plan

Per capita water demands

Based on current UWMPs

Agricultural

Current crop acreage and mix

Aggregate of annual/perennial crop mix from County Ag. Commissioners’ crop reports

Projected agricultural land use

Low, medium, and high growth based on LUCAS model projections

Applied Water Demand

Computed based on 2015 annual/perennial crop mix and projected ag land use


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Presenter

Presentation Notes

There are 58 Agricultural Commissioners and Sealers in the State (one for every county) and they are appointed by the Supervisors in each County They coordinate and provide regulatory services through US Dept of Food and Agriculture (USDA), CA Dept of Food and Agriculture (CDFA) and CA Dept of Pesticide Regulation (CDPR/Cal-EPA) They compile and produce the Annual Crop Reports reporting commodity production and economic value in their respective county’s

Urban Analysis - Population

• Current (2015)512,347 people

• ProjectedLow: 595,162 peopleMedium: 693,038 peopleHigh: 856,492 people


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Urban Analysis – Water Demand

• Current (2015)64,047 ac-ft/yr

• ProjectedLow: 68,100 ac-ft/yrMedium: 79,051 ac-ft/yrHigh: 97,268 ac-ft/yr


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Agricultural Analysis

• Farmland Mapping and Monitoring Program (FMMP)

– Updated on a frequent basis– Validated by local land use agencies– Vetted by a wide range of agricultural users

• Basin wide aggregate of agricultural land uses for base year (2015) crop mix of annual and perennial crop categories

• USGS Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) model

• Predicts land use changes through 2100 based on probability of changing to another land use


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TM 3: Socioeconomic Scenarios –Key Takeaways

• The purpose is to estimate future urban and agricultural water demands to later evaluate supplies, demands, and operations

• Future socioeconomic scenarios reflect a range of potential population, per capita water use, industry, agricultural practices, and land uses in the basin

• Three socioeconomic scenarios are defined– Low growth– Medium growth– High growth

• Hybrid approach to socioeconomic scenarios to ensures parity between analysis of future urban and agricultural water demands


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TM 4: Model Tools and Inputs


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Modeling ApproachSpeaking: Melanie Holton

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Presenter

Presentation Notes

Climate and socioeconomic scenarios form the basis for evaluating adaptation and mitigation portfolios. Modeling tools are coupled by hydrologically connecting boundary conditions, which includes natural and human-made boundaries (i.e. topographic and engineered conveyance of water).

Five Model Tools

• Basin Characteristics Model (BCM)

• Carmel River Basin Groundwater- Surface Water Flow Model (CRB)

• Salinas Valley Watershed Model (SVWM)

• Salinas Valley Integrated Hydrologic Model (SVIHM)

• Paso Robles Integrated Hydrologic Model (PRIHM)


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TM 4: Model Tools and Inputs- Key Takeaways

• We have developed a complex set of modeling tools that capture the most important aspects of basin hydrology and water management

• These tools will provide key information about future uncertainties, evaluate mitigation strategies, and provide planning information for the next century

• TM 4 defines the modeling approach– Five modeling tools– Modeling software– Use of models to implement climate change, sea level rise, and

socioeconomic scenarios– Model relationships to other models


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Discussion Breakpoint

• We will break here to receive and discuss questions and comments on the content presented

• Use MS Teams comment function to provide written questions or comments

– Questions/comments will be read by moderator at presentation breakpoints– Please write your name/organization when you provide a question or comment

Speaking: Mark Millan

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Presenter

Presentation Notes

Break for comments/questions Mike to toss those questions to the team

TM 5: Evaluate Supplies, Demands, and Operations


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Objective

• Simulate water supplies and demands under baseline and future scenarios

• Evaluate differences between scenarios– Impacts of climate change

– Impacts of socioeconomic change

Approach

• Revise model inputs based on scenarios

• Run full suite of models

• Process model results to compute metrics

• Evaluate and characterize current and future conditions, impacts of scenarios

Modeling and AnalysisSpeaking: Ian Ferguson

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TM 5: Evaluate Supplies, Demands, & Operations- Key Takeaways

• Basin Study models are being used to simulate supplies, demands, and operations under future climate and socioeconomic scenarios

• Analysis considers all combinations of climate and socioeconomic scenarios

– 15 Total Scenarios (5 Climate Scenarios x 3 Socioeconomic Scenarios)

• Status– Preparation of TM#5: in progress


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TM 6: Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies

Speaking: Lydia Holmes

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Adaptation and Mitigation StrategiesSources of Data and Information• Federal and State

– CA Department of Water Resources – California Public Utilities Commission – United States Geological Survey – U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

• Southern Basin Area– Atascadero– City of Paso– Coastal San Luis RCD– Paso Groundwater Sustainability Agency– San Luis Obispo (SLO) County Public Works– SLO Flood Control and Water Conservation

District

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Adaptation and Mitigation StrategiesSources of Data and Information• Northern Basin Area

– Alco Water– Arroyo Seco Groundwater Sustainability Agency – Big Sur Land Trust– California American Water – California Water Service – Carmel Area Watershed District– Castroville Community Services District– City of Sand City– City of Salinas– City of Soledad– City of Seaside, Seaside County Sanitation District,

and Seaside Basin Water Master– DeepWater Desal LLC– Fort Ord Reuse Authority– Grower-Shipper Association– Local Agency Formation Commission (LAFCO) of

Monterey County– Marina Coast Water District (MCWD

– MCWD Groundwater Sustainability Agency – Monterey County Water Resources Agency – Monterey Peninsula Water Management District – Monterey One Water – Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary– Moss Landing Harbor District– Nacimiento Regional Water Management Advisory

Committee– Pebble Beach Community Services District, and Pebble

Beach Company– Resource Conservation District (RCD) of Monterey

County– Return of the Natives– Salinas Valley Basin Groundwater Sustainability Agency– Watershed Institute - Division of Science &

Environmental Policy California State University Monterey Bay

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. Mitigation Strategies are sorted into project categories

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Action

Action

Action

Action

Action

Action

Action

Action

Action

Action

Formulate PortfoliosIdentify Potential

Mitigation Strategies

TM 6: Adaptation and Mitigation Portfolios

Portfolio #1

Portfolio #2

Screening Actions and Strategies

Portfolio #3

Portfolio #4

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TM 6: Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies- Key Takeaways

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• Summarizes adaptation and mitigation strategies considered in the Basin Study

• Groups strategies into portfolios

• Summarizes the purpose and objectives of the portfolio and the areas affected by the portfolio

• Provides detailed description of new infrastructure, changes to existing infrastructure, and changes to water management and operations in each portfolio

• Status– Preparation of TM 6: in progress

TM 7: Evaluate Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies

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Action

Action

Action

Action

Action

Action

Action

Action

Action

Action

Screen Against Objectives

Model RunsFormulate PortfoliosIdentify Potential

Mitigation Strategies

Metric Outputs

TM 6: Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies TM 7: Evaluate Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies

Portfolio Performance

Portfolio #1

Portfolio #2

Screening Actions and Strategies

Portfolio #3

Portfolio #4

How well are objectives

met?

3 Socioeconomic Scenarios

5 Cl

imat

e Sc

enar

ios

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TM 7: Evaluate Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies - Key Takeaways

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• Summarize the model simulations and calculated study metrics under each portfolio

• Compare change in study metrics between simulations carried out with portfolio adaptation and mitigation strategies with baseline analysis in TM 5 (no improvements)

• Provide qualitative discussion and interpretation of evaluation results

• Status– Preparation of TM 7: to be developed

Related and Integrated Activities

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North Monterey County Drought Contingency Plan (DCP)

• Identified structural drought mitigation measures to provide regional resilience

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Salinas Valley Basin Groundwater Sustainability Agency

• GSP for the 180/400-Foot Aquifer Subbasin that identifies projects and actions that provide stakeholders with options to reach sustainability

• The set of projects and actions achieve the following objectives

– Achieving groundwater sustainability by meeting subbasin-specific SMC by 2040

– Creating equity between who benefits from projects and who pays for projects

– Establishing a source of funding for project implementation

– Providing incentives to constrain groundwater pumping within limits

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County of San Luis Obispo GSA - Paso Robles Area

• GSP describes the Paso Robles Subbasin, develops quantifiable management objectives that account for the interests of the subbasin’s beneficial groundwater uses and users, and identifies a group of projects and management actions that will allow the subbasin to achieve sustainability within 20 years of plan adoption

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• Footprint of these activities is encompassed within the Basin Study

• DCP– First study illustrating linkages between the water users and water supplies– Gave understanding of the lower basin urban agency needs– Provided project lists and preliminary screening of projects for the Basin Study

• Groundwater Sustainability Planning– Models were upgraded under the Basin Study and used to evaluate options to

address groundwater issues– Models will be available to the GSAs for future analysis– GSAs provided project lists from their GSPs

Relationships/Coordination to Basin Study

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Discussion Breakpoint

• We will break here to receive and discuss questions and comments on the content presented

• Use MS Teams comment function to provide written questions or comments

– Questions/comments will be read by moderator at presentation breakpoints– Please write your name/organization when you provide a question or comment

Speaking: Mark Millan

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Presenter

Presentation Notes

Break for comments/questions Mike to toss those questions to the team

Next Steps

• April: Study Partners review draft TM 5 and TM 6

• June/July: Study Partners review draft TM 7 “Evaluate Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies”

• August: Stakeholder meeting

• September: Study Partners review draft Executive Summary

• December: Basin Study complete


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Salinas and Carmel Rivers Basin Study Contact Information

Reclamation’s Basin Study Web Site:www.usbr.gov/watersmart/bsp/index.html

Additional SCRBS information is available at:https://totalwatermanagement.org/

Reclamation Basin Study contact information:Ankur Bhattacharya– Project Manager (916) [email protected]

Study Team contact:Melanie Holton (Brown and Caldwell) - Project Manager (916)[email protected]


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http://www.usbr.gov/watersmart/bsp/index.html

https://totalwatermanagement.org/

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

salinas and carmel rivers basin study...carollo – seema chavan and lydia holmes. introductions –...

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