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LAC, LOC and Inside

Sameer Patil

Associate Fellow in National Security, Ethnic Conflict and Terrorism Studies

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Mumbai-based foreign policy

think tank

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and not-for-profit

Issue areas:

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Region focus

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India-China tensions on the Line of Actual

Control in Ladakh

Recent India-Pakistan skirmishes on the Lineof Control

Internal security situation in J&K

What to expect in 2014?

Outline of presentation

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Increase infrequency of

Chinese

incursions

Chinas attempt

to create new

facts on ground

Depsang

intrusion

India-China tensions on the LAC

Source: India Defence Review

Map of Kashmir and areas showing LAC and LOC

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PLAs focus on Chumarsector

India developing

border infrastructure

Chinas proposal for

Border Defence

Cooperation Agreement

Chinese intrusions in Chumar

Depsang and Chumar

Source: India Defence Review

Chumar

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China assertingterritorial claims in

the region

China takes a long

view of history

Protracted border

dispute negotiations

between India andChina

Looking at Chinas grand strategy

Getty Images

Chinas new leadership at the NPC meeting in Beijing

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Killing of Indian soldiersin Poonch

Discovery of cross-

border tunnel in Samba

Increase in ceasefire

violations

India-Pakistan skirmishes on LOC

Year Ceasefireviolations

2010 44

2011 51

2012 93

2013 (till July ) 33

Source: Lok Sabha

Source: Mapsofworld.com

India-Pakistan LoC

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Cross-border infiltration

Year Attempts Killed Returned Successful

2010 489 112 281 95

2011 247 35 159 52

2012 264 13 130 121

Rise in militantinfiltration

Most infiltration

activities in north

Kashmir

Terrorist

infrastructure in

Pakistan and POKremains intact

Source: Lok Sabha

NYT

Indian troops patrol LoC in north Kashmir

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Flux situationafter Afzal Gurus

execution

Agitational

politics of

separatists and

Pakistans support

Abject failures ongovernance front

Situation in J&K

Showkat Shafi

A stonepelter and security forces in Srinagar

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Targeting of thesecurity forces and

Panchayat members

Local recruitment in

terrorist ranks

Situation in Jammu

Security situation in J&K

Hindu

Security forces take position during an encounter in Sopore

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Warnings ofincrease in violence

from Pakistani

militant leaders

Spillover of unstable

situation in

Afghanistan on J&K

India-Pakistanrelations

What to expect in 2014?

A Difa e Pakistan rally in Lahore

Samaa TV

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