sardinian economic system

Sardinian Economic System

Cagliari, 27 giugno 2011Geography of water2011 summer school

Outline

• Sardinian economic system

• Competitive factors• Environment and tourism: a challenge for the future

• Concluding remarks

Sardinia in EUrope

PIL pro-capite regionale in parità dei poteri d’acquisto media EU27=100, anno 1998

Fonte: Eurostat

XVIII Rapporto CRENoS, Cagliari, 27 maggio 2011

Sardinia in EUrope

PIL pro capite regionale in parità dei poteri d’acquisto

media EU27=100, anno 2008


1995 2007 2008

Irlanda 121 147 133Germania 122 116 116Francia 115 108 107Spagna 95 105 103Grecia 83 92 94Slovenia 79 88 91Estonia 42 69 68Ungheria 55 62 64Slovacchia 52 68 72Lituania 40 59 61Polonia 48 54 56Italia 120 104 104Sardegna 89 78 79


Some comparisonsFonte: Eurostat

DATI: • Confronti UE: dati Eurostat 1998-2008

(UE27=100)Sardinia and Mezzogiorno are moving

away from the EU average

The after crisis dynamics is at a dual speed:

Tasso di crescita del PILPrevisioni Eurostat

2010 2011 2012

Italia 1,3 1,0 1,3Germania 3,6 2,6 1,9Francia 1,6 1,8 2,0Irlanda -1,0 0,6 1,9Spagna -0,1 0,8 1,5Slovacchia 4,0 3,5 4,4Lituania 1,3 5,0 4,7Polonia 3,8 4,0 3,7Svezia 5,5 4,2 2,5Finlandia 3,1 3,7 2,6

The dynamics of the GDP per capitaFonte: elaborazione Conti Economici Territoriali Istat

• Sardinian GDP in 2009 is 33 billion 450 millions euro.

• The reduction of GDP per capita in real term for 2008-2009 has taken back Sardinia to the 2002 values.

• Mezzogiorno perfermed even worse, in spite of the presence of a strong quota of Public Sector, which usually weaken crisis impacts.

• Recession has been stronger in centre north of Italy because of its international exposure

- 3,9


- 0,82

ATTIVITA’ ECONOMICAvar

09- 10v.m.a. 06-10

Quota media 06-10

Estrazione minerali 169,5 -4,0 1,62

Alimentari, bevande e tabacco -4,2 -1,4 2,74

Prodotti petroliferi 77,1 11,3 74,54

Sostanze e prodotti chimici 13,8 -10,9 9,83

Prodotti in metallo -17,2 15,4 5,70

Macchine e apparecchi meccanici -38,0 25,6 1,64

Mezzi di trasporto -120,4 2,8 1,28

International tradeFonte: elaborazioni su dati Istat-Coeweb

• Exports have increased in 2009 (especially because of oil)• Quota of export over GDP: 9,8%:

– Greater than in Mezzogiorno– But for ¾ is made of petrochemicals

• Other sectors have quite marginal quota (especially by-products of the agriculture sector)


The production structure

Quote %Sardegna Agricoltura e pesca 3,6Industria in senso stretto 13,2Costruzioni 6,2Servizi 77,0MezzogiornoAgricoltura e pesca 4,2Industria in senso stretto 14,0Costruzioni 6,2Servizi 75,6Centro-NordAgricoltura e pesca 2,0Industria in senso stretto 23,6Costruzioni 5,2Servizi 69,1ItaliaAgricoltura e pesca 2,5Industria in senso stretto 21,4Costruzioni 5,4Servizi 70,6

Fattori di crescita e sviluppo

Are we working on our potential in order to have a better growth in the medium-long period?

• Three pillars for growth:

• Material infrastructure (trasporti, telecomunicazioni, reti energetiche, servizi idrici, ambientali)

• Technological change

• Human capital

But what about the future?

Strade

Ferrovie

Porti

Aeroporti

Reti energ. amb.Reti banc. e serv. vari

Cult. e ricreat.

Istruzione

Sanità

Sardegna Mezzogiorno Italia

Strade

Ferrovie

Porti

Aeroporti


Cult. e ricreat.

Istruzione

Sanità


Strade

Ferrovie

Porti

Aeroporti


Cult. e ricreat.

Istruzione

Sanità


Strade

Ferrovie

Porti

Aeroporti


Cult. e ricreat.

Istruzione

Sanità


Strade

Ferrovie

Porti

Aeroporti


Cult. e ricreat.

Istruzione

Sanità


Strade

Ferrovie

Porti

Aeroporti


Cult. e ricreat.

Istruzione

Sanità


Strade

Ferrovie

Porti

Aeroporti


Cult. e ricreat.

Istruzione

Sanità


Strade

Ferrovie

Porti

Aeroporti


Cult. e ricreat.

Istruzione

Sanità


9 indicators: Italy=100

Persistent gap of Sardinia for all the indicators

- road: 45,6- train: 15,0- ports: 119,8- airports: 84,8- education: 53,4- health: 55,1

In relative terms the gap has been reduced in health and education

20012007

Material infrastructure

I fattori immateriali 1/

Pag.15

Competition is more and more due to intangible (immaterial) assets

Europe has the target to become the more competitive and more dynamics knowledge based area.

Let us see the factors which contribute more to this aim, their creation and possible policies.

Intangible assets

Scientific regions/1

Pag.17

• definition

key concepts for knowledge creation and absorption:

- Human capital;

- R&D activity.

• methodology:

– Ranking of regions with respect to EU average.

Scientific regions/2

Pag.18

Identificazione degli indicatori

Pag.19

Human capital:• Quota of population with tertiary education • Quota of population in the education sector• Funds per capita thanks to 5FP

R&D activity: • R&D expenditure per capita• Quota of employment in the R&D sector• Patents per capita• High-tech patents per capita

Indicators

AT11

AT12

AT13

AT21

AT22

AT31

AT32

AT33

AT34

BE10

BE21

BE22

BE23

BE24

BE25

BE31

BE32

BE33BE34 BE35

BG31BG32BG33

BG34

BG41

BG42

CH01

CH02

CH03

CH04

CH05

CH06

CH07

CY00

CZ01

CZ02

CZ03

CZ04

CZ05

CZ06

CZ07CZ08

DE11

DE12

DE13

DE14

DE21

DE22

DE23

DE24

DE25

DE26

DE27

DE30

DE41

DE42

DE50DE60

DE71

DE72

DE73

DE80

DE91

DE92

DE93

DE94

DEA1

DEA2

DEA3

DEA4

DEA5

DEB1DEB2

DEB3

DEC0

DED1

DED2

DED3

DEE0

DEF0

DEG0

DK01

DK02DK03

DK04

DK05

EE00ES11ES12

ES13

ES21

ES22

ES23ES24

ES30

ES41

ES42ES43

ES51

ES52

ES53

ES61ES62

ES63ES64

ES70

FI13

FI18

FI19

FI1A

FI20

FR10

FR21

FR22

FR23

FR24

FR25FR26

FR30

FR41

FR42FR43

FR51

FR52

FR53

FR61

FR62

FR63

FR71

FR72FR81

FR82

FR83

GR11

GR12

GR13

GR14

GR21

GR22

GR23

GR24GR25

GR30

GR41

GR42

GR43

HU10

HU21HU22

HU23

HU31

HU32HU33

IE01

IE02

IS00

ITC1

ITC2ITC3

ITC4

ITD1

ITD2ITD3

ITD4

ITD5

ITE1

ITE2ITE3

ITE4

ITF1

ITF2

ITF3

ITF4 ITF5

ITF6

ITG1Sardegna LT00

LU00

LV00MT00

NL11

NL12

NL13

NL21

NL22

NL23

NL31

NL32NL33

NL34

NL41

NL42

NO01

NO02

NO03

NO04

NO05

NO06

NO07

PL11

PL12

PL21

PL22 PL31PL32

PL33PL34

PL41

PL42PL43

PL51

PL52PL61

PL62

PL63PT11

PT15

PT16

PT17

PT18PT20 PT30

RO11RO12RO21RO22RO31

RO32

RO41RO42

SE11

SE12

SE21

SE22

SE23

SE31

SE32

SE33

SI01

SI02

SK01

SK02SK03SK04

UKC1

UKC2

UKD1

UKD2

UKD3

UKD4

UKD5

UKE1

UKE2

UKE3UKE4

UKF1

UKF2

UKF3

UKG1

UKG2

UKG3

UKH1

UKH2

UKH3

UKI1

UKI2

UKJ1

UKJ2

UKJ3

UKJ4

UKK1

UKK2

UKK3

UKK4

UKL1

UKL2

UKM2

UKM3

UKM5

UKM6

UKN0

-.2

0.2

.4.6 Research activity

-.2 0 .2 .4

Human capital

Human capital intensive regions

Research Intensive regions Scientific

regions

Regions with other specialisations than R&D

Pag.29

Conclusioni 1• In the last two decades Sardinian economy has been falling

behind (likewise the Italian one)• Our competitiveness is based on a model which is biased

towards a mix of heavy industries and public administration • The labour market is characterised by usual problems of

Mezzogiorno, high young and women unemployment• Recently the performance of the women labour forse has been

very positive.• For the future we still have a very heavy gap in infrastructures,

despite quite relevant public funds in the past.• The gap is even more dramatic when we refer to human capital

and technological change.

Preliminary conclusions

Conclusioni 2

• Tourism has had a very good performance in the last decade

• It is a sector which, despite some critical aspects, is able to compete in the international market, with some important excellencies

• Most importantly, in 2009, the annus horribilis for the whole world tourism, Sardinian market has show some remarkable resilient feature.

In search of good news

L’andamento del settore turistico

• La crisi mondiale ha avuto un forte impatto anche sul turismo, determinando nel 2009 una riduzione del 4% del numero di arrivi internazionali nonostante una prima ripresa nell’ultimo trimestre

Tra le principali destinazioni mondiali hanno mantenuto le posizioni solo la Turchia (+1,6%) e l’Italia (+0,4%); quest’ultima dopo un 2008 molto negativo

• Nostre fonti per l’analisi del settore in Sardegna:– Dati definitivi 2008 ufficiali, ISTAT (Gennaio 2010)– Dati provvisori 2009, Osservatorio Economico della Sardegna

Touristic demand, 2008

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

ITALIANI STRANIERI

ITALIANI 1E-07 4,94 1E-07 1,18 1E-07 0,80 1E-07 0,89

STRANIERI 1E-07 1,34 1E-07 -6,50 1E-07 -1,94 1E-07 -2,51

v.m.a.%04-08

var.%07-08

v.m.a.%04-08

var.%07-08

v.m.a.%04-08

var.%07-08

v.m.a.%04-08

var.%07-08

Mezzogiorno Sardegna ItaliaCentro-nord

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

ITALIANI STRANIERI

ITALIANI 3,50 4,94 1,87 1,18 2,44 0,80 2,31 0,89

STRANIERI 9,18 1,34 2,06 -6,50 3,66 -1,94 3,46 -2,51

v.m.a.%04-08

var.%07-08

v.m.a.%04-08

var.%07-08

v.m.a.%04-08

var.%07-08

v.m.a.%04-08

var.%07-08

Mezzogiorno Sardegna ItaliaCentro-nord

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

Sardegna Grecia Cipro Portogallo Malta Spagna

Touristic demand, 2009

Special features of the tourist sector

20/04/23Pag.35

Ambiente e Turismo: alcuni concetti base

20/04/23 Ambiente e Economia

Pag.36

• Sustainability: “when an economy is endorsed with natural resources which are the main attraction for tourist, a development path is sustainable if it allows such natural resources to generate as much income today as in the future”

• implications: environmental sustainability, current and of long period, must be associated to economic sustainability, that is the capacity to generate income in the present and in the future, taking into account tourist preference and their modification along time (with increasing income)

Key concepts/1


Pag.37

• Tourism industry: is a integrated sector which includes

many sub sectors: hospitality, transport, cultural services,

agriculture, constructions, articrafts…., ecc.

• Implications: both the analysis about tourism and the

policies for tourism have to be integrated

Key concepts/2

Specific features of the Sardinian tourism/1


Pag.38

• Natural resources

– Snob and luxury good

• Archeological resources

• Cultural resources…sardinian identity

• Low pression by residents

• High average quality of hospitality sector (thanks to

economies of scale and some multinationals)

• Local environment without crime (at least not as much

as in other areas: organised crime, terrorism)

Resilient to

the

crisis….?!?


Pag.39

• High concentration of demand and supply laong the coast (around 90%)

• High concentration in summer (70% of nights in june-august)

• Abnormal presence of second houses (7 out of 8 beds are offered by this sub sector, which is usually informal and unofficial)

• Low attraction of foreign flows (only 30% even though it is increasing thanks to low cost flights)

Weaknesses of tourism in Sardinia/1


Pag.40

• Low average expenditure (30% less than in Veneto)

• Low integration with other sectors and consequently low diffused impact on the whole economy (high dispersion effects)

• Low “diffused” quality of the entire production chain, starting from public services

• Low coordination among different actors of the tourist industry

Weaknesses of tourism in Sardinia/2


Pag.41

• Mobility within Sardinia

• Low price/quality ratio

• Real accessibility to resources and attractions

Weaknesses of tourism in Sardinia(according to experts)

Some data on the tourism sector in Sardinia


Pag.42

• 170.000 “official” beds (80.000 in hotels);

• About 12 millions “official” nights;

• 25-30 millions nights in second houses with more

than 700.000 beds in the unofficial market

• Regional value added due to tourism is around 8%

of regional GDP

The regional tourist budget: expenditure and V.A.

20/04/23Pag.43

Tourist expenditure=

= per capita expenditure* (number of beds* utilisation rate)

Regional value added due to tourist expenditure=

Tourist exp. x internal multiplier x external demultiplier

60 euro880.000

0,12

1,26 0,69

Tourism and growth


Pag.44

• Is tourism good for growth?

• Empirical evidence says so….especially small islands specialised in tourism have grown at high speed

• Sustainability along time is crucial in for a development path based on tourism: we need to preserve the quality of the resource….and the market on its own is not able to provide the right incentives to economic agents for such a result

Regional plan for sustainable tourism: why?

• Public goods and common resources– (es. free riders, uso eccessivo)

• Negative externalities– (es. uso eccessivo della risorsa ambientale, danni

reputazionali)

• Positive externalities– (es. promozione e marketing delle singole aziende,

sistema informativo)

• Coordination failure– (es. domanda e offerta di beni e servizi locali,

apertura fuori stagione)


Pag.46

To develop an integrated touristic industry

– Of high “diffused” quality

– Based on the attractiveness of its natural and cultural heritage and richness

– Diversified in space and time

– Based on international demand (which is growing)

– Based on price dynamics which avoid price competitions of other localities which have different characteristics, especially in terms of costs

Regional plan for sustainable tourism: what for?

20/04/23Pag.47

• The PRSTS defines the actions for the public authority

to support choices in favour of a general objective:

•To increase the quota of tourism over GDP thanks to

solutions of the long lasting problems seen above

• strenghtening the long term competitiveness of the whole tourist system in Sardinia, respectful of environment integrity

Regional plan for sustainable tourism: how?

• Some actions (among many others):

• Subsidies for the riqualification and modernisation of touristis services

• Subsidies for the creation of a certified products with a common brand

• Subsidies for the creation and completion of internal production chain for a better intersectoral integration

• Marketing strategies to sale destination products in all those markets with high potential and increasing dynamics in terms of income and potential expenditure for touristic purposes

Regional plan for sustainable tourism: how?

sardinian economic system

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