sat-bbe: systems analysis tools framework for the … overview (scar) 13... · sat-bbe: systems...
TRANSCRIPT
SAT-BBE: Systems Analysis Tools
Framework for the BioEconomy
Hans van Meijl, LEI part of Wageningen UR
SCAR 7th meeting SWG sustainable use of bioresources for a growing
bioeconomy, The Hague, 13 6 2014
Contents
• Description SAT-BBE project
• Some results
• Some conclusions
Policy objectives of the Bioeconomy Strategy
© Becoteps
Ensure long term economic and environmental sustainability
Ensuring food security
Managing natural resources
sustainably
Reducing dependence on non-renewable resources
Mitigating and adapting to climate change
Creating jobs and maintaining European competitiveness
Provide analytical tools for monitoring and evaluation of the
implementation of the EU Bioeconomy Strategy:
● Create a systems analysis tools framework to assess and
address the short and long term challenges for an effective and
sustainable EU bioeconomy strategy
● Confirm scope and definition of the bioeconomy
● Demonstrate how systems analysis should be applied to
monitoring and evaluation of the evolution of EU objectives
for shifting as much as possible to a bioeconomy within Europe
● Clarify, through the analysis framework, the degree of
sustainability of the bioeconomy
Objective of the Systems Analysis Tools Framework for
the EU Bio-Based Economy Strategy (SAT BBE)
Overview of Systems Analysis Tools Framework for
the EU Bio-Based Economy Strategy (SAT BBE)
• FP 7 project; coordination & support action
• October 2012 to March 2015
Research institutes:
1. LEI-WUR (Agricultural Economics Research Institute)
2. Utrecht University
3. European Forest Institute
4. Wuppertal Institute
5. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
6. Vrij Universiteit Amsterdam
7. Johann Heinrich von Thünen – Institut
8. International Food Policy Research Institute
Scientific Advisors
● Joachim von Braun
● Allan Buckwell
● Gerrit Meester
EC DGs/Agencies
● AGRI
● EEA [tbc]
● ENER
● ENTR
● JRC
● RTD (Barna Kovacs, EC project officer).
Main characteristics of SAT-BBE
Support for biobased economy policy makers (observatory,
policy\impact\scenario analyses, ...)
Focus is long term: primarily because lead time for many social and
technological solutions is long
Uses mainly existing tools, but works out how these tools can be
related to each other on BBE issues
● Provides keys to linkage between these tools, where
appropriate and feasible
● Identify knowledge gaps of potential data and tools
Sectoral structure of Bioeconomy
ECONOMY
NON-BIOECONOMY
Energy, Chemical and other
fossil based sectors
Environmental Resources & Quality
Agrofood, Forestry, Pulp, Bioenergy, Biochemicals,
Ecosystems
BIOECONOMY
SAT BBE
Conceptual framework for the bioeconomy
Definition of Bioeconomy
‘The bioeconomy encompasses the production of renewable
biological resources and their conversion into food, feed, bio-
based products and bioenergy. It includes agriculture, forestry,
fisheries, food and pulp and paper production, as well as parts of
chemical, biotechnological and energy industries. ...<strong
innovation potential as it uses a wide range of sciences>....’ (EC,
29 February, 2012)
What has to be taken into account:
• Ecosystem services
• Circular economy
Status of work
WP 1 Scoping and definition: completed
● D1.4 framework
WP 2 Tools for evaluating and monitoring: completed
● Data (D2.1), Indicators (D2.2), Models (D3.2)
WP 3 Systems analysis protocols ongoing
● Operational linking, design SAT
SAT BBE project website:
http://www3.lei.wur.nl/satbbe/project.aspx
Macro-Economic Study for Bio-based Malaysia
A quantitative analysis of the economic effects of replacing fossil resources by green, bio-based alternatives, 2030 (Meijl, et al. 2012).
● Insight in the macro-economic effects of the bio-based
economy for Malaysia
● Focus on use of residues and waste from palm industry
● To understand the uncertainties and risks that determine
the bandwidth of these effects
● Scenario-analyses are required to quantify bandwidths
and to determine the effects of strategic policy choices
● Quantification global CGE model
Malaysia: Palm residues
Trunks, fronds, empty fruit bunches, fibers, palm kernel shells.... currently “NOT” used...!
Empty fruit bunches
Palm kernel shells
Palm fronds
Palm fibres
Economic results
GDP effect/biomass volume
(%/Mt)
Bioethanol 0.013
Biochemicals 0.038
Pellets 0.012
• Total revenue (quantity x price) ca. 30 billion RM or 2% of the GDP =
direct GDP effect = similar to NBS
• NET GDP effect, incl. opportunity costs is only 0.5% (exc. electricity)
and 0% (inc. electricity)
Percentage effect on Malaysian GDP in
2030 of 6.6 Mt biomass chemicals project
Price of oil per barrel in US$2007 per barrel
50 70 90 110 135 150
Current technology (90) -0.18 -0.07 0.01 0.08 0.15 0.17
Future technology (50) 0.03 0.11 0.17 0.21 0.26 0.28
Data needed to monitor Bioeconomy (BISO)
Value added, employment, production, trade flows, input flows, emissions, land use, etc. (physical & monetary units)
● Missing biobased sectors, data quite aggregated
● Measure biomass\fossil inputs used by various industries (energy, fuels, chemicals).
Cost structures of (new) bioeconomy technologies\sectors. Technological trajectories (learning effects, etc.)
For socio-economic impact analyses is needed (SAM, IO)
Forest/waste/residues data incomplete and not harmonised
Env: need local data, downscaling (soc and econ data)
Data needed
For a systems analysis of the bioeconomy a very broad range of data is needed
Due to interactions with multiple sectors data not specific to the biobased sector are important
Overviews made are non-exhaustive
Data needs and availability depend on scale and focus of assessment
Many data available, but, at same time, there are many issues with the resolution, completeness and quality of the data
Modelling needs
Value chains; agriculture, food, energy, materials, chemicals
Explicit representation of fossil sectors (including policies)
Origin biomass; domestic production, imports, waste
Indicators: values (e.g. economics, employment) and emissions (incl. indirect effect, iLUC, rebound effect)
Side effects: food security, nature\biodiversity
Advanced models (e.g. CGE) more important in a linked system with different types of technical and biophysical models (e.g. land allocation, land use, biodiversity, emissions)
Challenge: representation of (non-exising) Biobased sectors
Conclusions
Bioeconomy definition should include eco-system services and the concept of the circular economy
Design of monitoring should keep modelling needs for impact analyses into account
● Lots of key data are missing
● biomass flows to non-food industries
● Value added related to biomass inputs
● SAM\IO tables are needed with sufficient biobased sectors\flows for socio-econ analyses
Models: advanced models, linked system of multisectoral economic and biofysical models; system analyses tools
FYI
UPCOMING WORKSHOP Indicators for a balanced bioeconomy: linking consumption with global land use
Venue: Wuppertal Institute, Wuppertal, Germany
Date: 24 June 2014
Under what conditions is a European bioeconomy sustainable?
Impact of the use of biomass for different
biobased applications in the EU
Based on 1 EJ biomass use per technology
Three technologies: 1) Bioelectricity, 2) 2nd Generation biofuel and 3) Biochemicals
Global economic MAGNET model
The impact of the use of 1 EJ biomass for the production of fuel, electricity, chemicals on the production value and GDP (G$).
Smeets, et al., (forthcomming), ongoing work with IPTS, Seville
Cost calculations (spreadsheet) CGE Model based
Cost of producing "biobased"
Cost of producing
"conventional"
Net change of value of
production = Net GDP effect
Net GDP effect
MAGNET
Multiplier effect
Fuel 10.7 13.7 3.0 5.0 1.7
Electricity 10.2 7.7 -2.5 -3.0 1.2
Chemicals 11.8 22.4 10.6 6.0 0.6
Impact of the use of wheat straw in EU on
land use, production and food security
Assuming a total sustainable potential of 2 EJ wheat straw
Price of wheat straw is 7.9 $/GJ; collection costs 5 $/GJ.
Impact of rebound effect on GHG balance of
biofuels used in the EU