Should the U.S. Sell Nuclear Should the U.S. Sell Nuclear Weapons and Weapons Weapons and Weapons

platforms to Saudiplatforms to Saudi Arabia?Arabia?

Should the U.S. Sell Nuclear Should the U.S. Sell Nuclear Weapons and Weapons Weapons and Weapons

platforms to Saudiplatforms to Saudi Arabia?Arabia?

John LacekJohn LacekJohn LacekJohn Lacek

The Importance of Saudi ArabiaThe Importance of Saudi ArabiaThe Importance of Saudi ArabiaThe Importance of Saudi Arabia

Important partner in regional securityImportant partner in regional security

25% of world oil production25% of world oil production

Saudi oil underwrites global economic Saudi oil underwrites global economic

systemsystem

Main Saudi ConcernsMain Saudi ConcernsMain Saudi ConcernsMain Saudi Concerns

External Security EnvironmentExternal Security Environment

Internal StabilityInternal Stability

The Security Environment - IranThe Security Environment - IranThe Security Environment - IranThe Security Environment - Iran

Shi’ite dominated governmentShi’ite dominated government

Growth of Iranian influence in region and Growth of Iranian influence in region and

in OPECin OPEC

The Security Environment - IraqThe Security Environment - IraqThe Security Environment - IraqThe Security Environment - Iraq

Shi’ite government and growth of Shi’ite Shi’ite government and growth of Shi’ite

powerpower

Growth of Iranian influenceGrowth of Iranian influence

Unprotected border with IraqUnprotected border with Iraq

Internal Stability - The EconomyInternal Stability - The EconomyInternal Stability - The EconomyInternal Stability - The Economy

Oil based economyOil based economy

Growing unemployment and growing Growing unemployment and growing

populationpopulation

Per capita income of $22,589 in 1980 vs Per capita income of $22,589 in 1980 vs

$4,564 in 2004$4,564 in 2004

Economic liberalization Economic liberalization

Internal Stability - Shi’ite Internal Stability - Shi’ite PopulationPopulation

Internal Stability - Shi’ite Internal Stability - Shi’ite PopulationPopulation

Large Shi’ite minorityLarge Shi’ite minority

Shi’ite leaders increasingly calling for Shi’ite leaders increasingly calling for

political reformpolitical reform

Al Qaeda infrastructure in country Al Qaeda infrastructure in country

Solidarity among Iraqi, Iranian, and Saudi Solidarity among Iraqi, Iranian, and Saudi

Shi’itesShi’ites

Our OptionsOur OptionsOur OptionsOur Options

Option 1 - Do nothingOption 1 - Do nothing

Option 2 - Sell them the bombOption 2 - Sell them the bomb

Option 3 - Foster development of GCCOption 3 - Foster development of GCC

Option 1 - Do NothingOption 1 - Do NothingOption 1 - Do NothingOption 1 - Do Nothing

Most politically appetizing Most politically appetizing

Will give more room for China to Will give more room for China to

maneuver maneuver

Mass nuclear proliferation risksMass nuclear proliferation risks

Possibility of destroying Gulf Cooperation Possibility of destroying Gulf Cooperation

Council Council

Option 2 - Sell the BombOption 2 - Sell the BombOption 2 - Sell the BombOption 2 - Sell the Bomb

Allows for Saudis to check Iranian influenceAllows for Saudis to check Iranian influence

Makes the Saudis feel more secureMakes the Saudis feel more secure

Keeps the Chinese outKeeps the Chinese out

Still mass nuclear-proliferation risksStill mass nuclear-proliferation risks

Still may destroy the GCCStill may destroy the GCC

Politically unfeasible - American Jewish Lobby and Israeli Politically unfeasible - American Jewish Lobby and Israeli

oppositionopposition

Option 3 - Foster GCC Option 3 - Foster GCC DevelopmentDevelopment

Option 3 - Foster GCC Option 3 - Foster GCC DevelopmentDevelopment

Foster political and military integrationFoster political and military integration

Upgrade GCC conventional military capabilitiesUpgrade GCC conventional military capabilities

Increase military training between NATO, US, and GCCIncrease military training between NATO, US, and GCC

Either NATO or U.S. direct commitment to defending GCCEither NATO or U.S. direct commitment to defending GCC

Reaffirmation of MAD doctrine and permanent U.S. SSBN Reaffirmation of MAD doctrine and permanent U.S. SSBN

nuclear deterrent patrols in Persian Gulfnuclear deterrent patrols in Persian Gulf

A Marshall plan like economic re-construction commitment for A Marshall plan like economic re-construction commitment for

GCC statesGCC states

Why Option 3?Why Option 3?Why Option 3?Why Option 3?

Allows for a decrease in gulf rivalries within GCCAllows for a decrease in gulf rivalries within GCC

Allows for GCC to defend itself, and provides a strong partner in Allows for GCC to defend itself, and provides a strong partner in

Middle EastMiddle East

NATO sponsorship would decrease the anti-American blow backNATO sponsorship would decrease the anti-American blow back

SSBN patrols would give US first strike capabilities against IranSSBN patrols would give US first strike capabilities against Iran

Economic re-construction would alleviate internal dissentEconomic re-construction would alleviate internal dissent

Would keep China out indefinitely Would keep China out indefinitely

Draw BacksDraw BacksDraw BacksDraw Backs

Politically hard to doPolitically hard to do

Rivalries in GCC run deepRivalries in GCC run deep

Make Iran more militantMake Iran more militant