saurabh bhardwaj centre for global environment research, earth science and climate change division...
TRANSCRIPT
Saurabh Bhardwaj
Centre for Global Environment Research,
Earth Science and Climate Change Division
Ongoing Climate Research @TERI
Outline of the talk• Background• Three forked formulation to follow• Process models• Resources at TERI • Goals
Three forked formulation
Quantified uncertainty measuresEnclosure of regional processesDownscaled information for better impacts
assessments
Quod Erat Demonstrandum
Fork I: Quantified uncertainity measures
Observational Importance:
The high resolution availability of both spatial and temporal data is required to quantify address the uncertainity in models:
• All the states do not have equal number of meteorological stations
• The observations of other variables (like temperature, windspeed and radiation variables) are available only at selected stations for a long period
Fork II: Enclosure of regional processes
Early climate models as we know started at Mid-1970s
Since then each decade the improvement of including local processes have become very essential
Presently, we are moving towards a Global Earth System Model which can include the regional processes, however what spatial scale the model should use is an issue.
Better representation of the regional processes are essential to resolve the climatic variability
It has been found, over Asia, the three significant physical processes are (Source: Congbin Fu, 2002)Land use and land cover changes and vegetation, Aerosol forcing, Oceanic transport of heat
Hence inclusion of Earth system processes becomes essential in models
Fork III: Downscaled information for better impacts
assessments
Improvements in Grid resolution• The evaluation of the Climate
models has become an essential pre-requisite to understand the Earth’s climate system
• A Model Intercomparison Project is an approach to model verification and they are part of community analysis and verification/activity.
• Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change has started its MIP programs with Atmospheric Models in 1995 till today with CMIP (Coupled Ocean Atmospheric Models).
PRECIS is a dynamical downscaling toolTo run the model, lateral and surface boundary
conditions- HadAM3 (3.75x2.5 deg) Experiment conducted: Base line (1961-
90), A2 & B2 (2071-2100)
Study Domain 50-380N, 650-1000E
Horizontal Surface resolutions 0.440~50kmVertical resolution 19levels
(Surface to the top of the atmosphere)
Regional Downscaling ModelPRECIS (Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies) for
Impact Assessment studies over Indian region
A2
The A2 scenarios are of a more divided world. The A2 family of scenarios is characterized by:
A world of independently operating, self-reliant nations. Continuously increasing population. Regionally oriented economic development. Slower and more fragmented technological changes and
improvements to per capita income.
B2
The B2 scenarios are of a world more divided, but more ecologically friendly. The B2 scenarios are characterized by:
Continuously increasing population, but at a slower rate than in A2.
Emphasis on local rather than global solutions to economic, social and environmental stability.
Intermediate levels of economic development. Less rapid and more fragmented technological change than in A1
and B1.
1st Sept 2010 WRF lecture series, Bergen Norway
Mean Monsoon Pattern in PRECIS baseline simulation
It is able to capture the major features but overestimates the rainfall in few regions - over
Himalayan belt, few parts of central India and west coast.
1st Sept 2010 WRF lecture series, Bergen Norway
Extreme - scenario
Moderate-scenario
1st Sept 2010 WRF lecture series, Bergen Norway
Annual Mean Temperature Climatology Comparison for IMD and PRECIS
The overall pattern of the temperature is well captured by PRECIS over South Indian region, however over the Central and North Indian region there is negative bias of reduced temperature in model when
compared to observation.
1st Sept 2010 WRF lecture series, Bergen Norway
Moderate-scenario
Extreme-scenario
Details of the Super Computing Facility
Wipro Supernova SN2007A• 128 Cores of Intel Xeon 2.83 GHz with 1333 MHz FSB• 128 Gb ddr2 667 FBDIMM RAM• 20 Gb ps Infiniband Connectivity• 16 TB Local Parallel File Storage• IPMI based advanced management tools for inband and outband management support• Redundant 20 Gb ps DDR infiniband Switching • 1Gb ps Ethernet for management• Debian GNU/Linux stable distribution with WIPRO’s enhancement as the operating system• Gluster software• Linpack performance per 1U Twin server (2 dual CPU Server in 1U space) -181.12 G Flop/s• Total Peak Performance for the system-1448.96 GFlop/s• Project Maximum Performance of the system-1014 GFlop/s
Global Climate Simulations @ TERI: an Initiative GOALS: To enhance the climate modeling activities at
TERI.
To address the key important issues in the climate system models (for ex: the tele connection patterns, the monsoon simulation over the South-Asian region etc.)
Determine the climate tipping points with the help of climate change simulations and thenceforth influence on the impacts on different sectors.
Global Coupled Climate System Model We are presently using Community Climate System Model Version
3 for Global Climate Simulations.
Model Used: Community Climate System Model Version 3 from the National
Centre for Atmospheric Research. The model is a coupled climate system model which is comprised
of atmospheric model (Community Atmosphere Model version 3.0), ocean model (Parallel Ocean Program, version 1.0), land model (Community Land model version 3.0), and sea ice model (Community Sea Ice Model 3.0). a coupler which acts as the main link between the sub models.
Test run simulation details CCSM3 simulation is being performed for 100 years of which 2
years simulation results are presented here, the qualitative assessment would be done after performing the 100year simulation.
Details of the testrun T42 resolution (300km x 300km) horizontal and 26 levels in
vertical for atmosphere, POP model with (110kmx110km) horizontal resolution and 40
levels in vertical.
Test run outputs from CCSM3
Way ForwardWe are planning to conduct a longer run of
100 years of control and 100 years of future with different SRES scenarios.