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Savills ChinaRetail Chart Book
1
2012
Introduction
The retail market is one the hardest in the real estate sector to analyse; every province and city has slightly different characteristics, every retailer has a different strategy, every consumer a different taste.
Developments come in all shapes, sizes and colours, and each retail unit is valued slightly differently to another depending on degree of visibility, or distance from the nearest Metro station or competing retailer.
This reports attempts to highlight some of the overriding characteristics and trends but does not presume to delve any deeper into the specifics of individual markets. It is necessary to approach every market as having its own unique opportunities and difficulties.
James Macdonald Head of China Research
2
Macro and Demographic Domestic demand 4 Chinese consumption vs global 5 Retail sales 6 Incomes and expenditure 7 Expenditure breakdown 8 Gini and Engel 9 Inflation and interest rates 10 Service sector 11 Age pyramids 12 Urbanisation 13 Tourism 14 Market drivers 15 Consumer confidence 16
3
Macro – Potential for growth in domestic demand Domestic savings as a % of total GDP,
1960–2009 Consumption as a percentage of GDP,
1970–2009
4 Source: IMF, Savills China Research Source: IMF, Savills China Research
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
Euro area Brazil China India Japan Russia UK US World
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
Euro area Brazil China India Japan Russia UK US World
China has one of the highest domestic savings rates in the world, higher than both its developed and developing world peers. Despite the government’s efforts to reverse this trend, savings rates have continued to rise in recent years reaching 53% of GDP by 2009. Savings rates are believed to have remained stubbornly high in part because of the nation’s inadequate social security framework. Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected expenditures, including unemployment, healthcare costs, or some other catastrophe.
Despite being the second largest economy in the world, consumption only accounted for 35% of GDP in 2009, having fallen from 47% in 2000, as fixed investment and capital expenditure have taken priority.
Macro – Chinese consumption’s global importance Household consumption index,
1990–2010 China’s contribution to global household
consumption, 1970–2009
Source: UN, Savills China Research Source: UN, Savills China Research
Despite many people talking about high savings rates in China and the lack of consumer mentality, household consumption has increased dramatically over the last 20 years. It has not, however, exceeded GDP growth, which explains why its contribution to the economy has been shrinking.
From 1990 to 2010 household consumption grew 4.8 fold (inflation adjusted) from RMB871 billion to RMB14.0 trillion. While accounting for a decreasing amount of global consumption between 1970 and the early 1990s, China’s contribution to global
consumption levels has skyrocketed in recent years and now represents more than 5.6% of global household consumption in 2010.
5
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
1990 = 100 Euro World Brazil China India Japan Russia UK US
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
Macro – Retail sales continue to grow at pace Retail sales,
Jan 1994–Dec 2011 Retail sales per capita by tier city,
2001–2009
6 Source: NBS, Savills China Research Source: NBS, Savills China Research
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10
RMB billion Retail sales (LHS) YoY growth (RHS)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
RMB per annum 1 2 3 4 5
While China was known as the world’s factory at the start of the new millennia, this perception has quickly changed. China has emerged as the world’s largest auto market, retailers register record sales growth in the country and Chinese tourists swamp luxury goods stores in Paris, London and New York. Retail sales have grown between 10% and 20% since 2004 and during the global financial crisis (GFC), China was one of the fastest growing markets in the world.
Retail sales growth has quickly trickled down to smaller cities. Retailers established in key mainland markets have looked to expand footprints in new territories, while businesses looking to save costs have relocated to lower tier cities, generating new jobs and pushing up income levels.
Macro – Income and expenditure Disposable income, expenditure and
savings rates,1992–2010 Urban household income distribution,
2005–2010
Source: NBS, Savills China Research Source: NBS, Savills China Research
Disposable incomes have risen at a steady, and by western standards phenomenal, rate over the last 20 years. Consumption expenditure, however, has not been able to keep up, resulting in less of the total disposable income being spent.
In just six short years the proportion of urban households in China making more than RMB100,000 per annum has increased from 2.1% to 12.2%, while the percentage of households making less than RMB20,000 has fallen from 28.6% to 6.2%. Such figures may be overstated as they do not take into account high inflation rates. Nonetheless, there have been significant gains in bringing about China’s middle class.
7
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
RMB Disposable income (LHS) Expenditure (LHS) Savings rate (RHS)
29%22%
16%11% 8% 6%
45%
45%
42%
36%
32%27%
17%20%
24%
26%
27%
28%
6%7%
10%
13%15%
17%
2% 3%4%
6%8%
9%
2% 3% 4% 7% 9% 12%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
05 06 07 08 09 10
<RMB20,000 RMB20,000-40,000 RMB40,000-60,000RMB60,000-80,000 RMB80,000-100,000 >RMB100,000
Macro – Consumer expenditure breakdown Urban consumer expenditure breakdown,
1992–2010 Rural consumer expenditure breakdown,
1992–2010
Source: NBS, Savills China Research Source: NBS, Savills China Research
As incomes have risen and consumption on consumer and luxury products has increased, the percentage of expenditure going to food has decreased rapidly (despite the cultural significance of food and rapid inflation of food stuffs).
In urban areas food consumption as a percentage of the total has fallen from 52.9% in 1992 to 35.7% in 2010. Transportation and communication has been the biggest gainer, rising from 2.5% to 14.7% in the same period thanks largely to the growing automobile industry and the explosion in mobile and internet usage.
8
52.9% 50.1%44.5%
38.2% 37.7% 36.3% 35.7%
14.1%13.5%
11.1%
10.1% 9.6% 10.4% 10.7%
2.5%3.1%
4.7%
6.5% 7.4% 7.0% 6.5%
2.6% 5.2%
5.9%9.3% 11.7% 13.6% 14.7%
8.8% 9.4%
11.5% 13.9%14.4% 13.3% 12.1%
6.0% 8.0%9.4% 11.5%
10.2% 9.8% 9.9%
4.7% 3.2% 4.5% 3.5% 3.3% 3.6% 3.7%
8.4% 7.4% 8.2% 7.1% 5.7% 6.0% 6.7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
92 95 98 01 04 07 10
Household Facility, Article & Service
Miscellaneous
Residence
Recreation, Edu & Cultural Service
Transport, Post & Telecommunication
Medicine & Medical Service
Clothing
Food
57.5% 58.6%53.4%
47.7% 47.2%43.1% 41.1%
8.0% 6.9%
6.2%
5.7% 5.5%6.0%
6.0%
5.6% 5.2%
5.2%
4.4% 4.1%4.6% 5.3%
3.7% 3.2%
4.3%
5.5% 6.0%6.5% 7.4%
1.9% 2.6%
3.8%
6.3% 8.8%10.2% 10.5%
6.6% 7.8%10.0%
11.1%11.3%
9.5% 8.4%
15.9% 13.9% 15.1% 16.0% 14.8% 17.8% 19.1%
0.8% 1.8% 2.1% 3.2% 2.2% 2.3% 2.1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
92 95 98 01 04 07 10
Miscellaneous
Residence
Recreation, Edu & Cultural Service
Transport, Post & Telecommunication
Medicine & Medical Service
Household Facility,Article & ServiceClothing
Food
Macro – Gini and Engel Gini coefficient,
2000–2009 Grey income estimates,
2008
Source: World Bank, Savills China Research Source: NBS, Credit Suisse, Savills China Research
Income inequality and unreported income are two barriers associated with gauging the size of China’s retail market.
China’s continues to exhibit a large wealth gap, partially explaining the success of luxury retailers and the relative
dearth of mid-end retailers to-date.
Critics also question the accuracy of estimates provided by international governing bodies such as the World Bank. A study by Professor Wang of China Reform Foundation in conjunction with Credit Suisse estimated incomes in the top ten percentile to be more than triple those reported, further skewing perceived income distribution.
9
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
South Africa Brazil
Mexico Argentina
Philippines Turkey
China (PRC)Russia
Thailand United States
Vietnam India
Indonesia Italy
Spain Greece
Switzerland Canada
Mongolia Egypt
Germany Finland Norway Sweden
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
0
40,000
80,000
120,000
160,000
200,000
Bottom 10%
10-20% 20-40% 40-60% 60-80% 80-90% Top 10%
RMB NBS data (LHS) Wang's data (LHS) Difference (RHS)
Macro – Inflation, interest rates and bank deposits CPI components, Jan 2006–Dec 2011
One-year lending and savings rates, Jan 2000–Jan 2012
Source: NBS, Savills China Research Source: NBS, Savills China Research
It is generally perceived that there is a negative correlation between interest rates and consumption levels. Interest rate hikes are designed to cool investment and consumption by encouraging individuals to save more money in the bank, borrow less from the bank and cool the stock market, real estate market and bond prices, resulting in a decline in wealth.
While a negative correlation between interest rates and consumption levels is commonly acknowledged, economists such as Michael Pettis have argued that the loss of wealth, rather than higher savings rates, curbs consumption and therefore spending. Following his reasoning, as Chinese savings are typically in the form of bank deposits, interest rate hikes allow for greater perceived wealth, and consequently, an increase not a decrease in consumption.
10
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11
Dec 2005 = 100 CPI Core Service Consumer Goods Food
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Lending (one-year) Savings (one-year)
Macro – Service sector % of GDP contributed by sector,
1980–2010 Workforce by sector,
1980–2010
Source: NBS, Savills China Research Source: NBS, Savills China Research
China’s industrial structure has evolved significantly over the last 30 years. In 1980, the tertiary industry accounted for
only 22% of the economy and 13% of the workforce, by 2010 the tertiary industry accounted for 43% of the economy and 35% of the workforce.
On average, over the last ten years, 7 million people have been added to the tertiary sector workforce. During the same period there has also been an increase in the urban workforce by 12 million people per year on average.
11
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Primary Secondary Tertiary
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Primary Secondary Tertiary
Demographics – Age pyramids Age structure,
2010 Age structure,
2050
Source: UNDP, Savills China Research Source: UNDP, Savills China Research
China has experienced a significant demographic gain over the past 50 years, with its dependency ratio – the ratio of dependents to those of working age – falling to an all-time low. As the one-child policy limits the working-age population and life expectancy increases, the nation is at risk of ageing rapidly before becoming rich.
Fortunately these concerns will be partially offset by continued urbanisation and modernisation of industry. This will translate to a larger urban workforce and greater economic efficiency.
By 2050, 25.6% of the population is expected to be aged over 65 years old, up from just 8.2% in 2010.
12
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+
million persons
Male Female
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+
million persons
Male Female
Demographics – Urbanisation China’s urbanisation levels,
1950–2050E Urban vs rural consumer expenditure
levels, 1980–2011
Source: UNDP, Savills China Research Source: NBS, Savills China Research
Higher levels of urbanisation lead not only to greater workforce productivity but also to higher national incomes and greater consumption levels. Urban households in 2011 were estimated to spend on average RMB15,161 per annum compared with just RMB5,221 per annum by rural households.
That said, the ratio between urban and rural consumption levels peaked in 2003 and fell rapidly in 2011. This could be a result of a number of factors, including higher remittances and increased food costs boosting farmers’ incomes.
13
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
million people Urban (LHS) Rural (LHS) Urbanistaion rate (RHS)
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
RMB UH RH Ratio
Demographics – Domestic and international tourism Visitor arrivals by nationality,
1980–2011 Visitor expenditure by nationality,
1980–2011
Source: CNTA, Savills China Research Source: CNTA, Savills China Research
The rise of the modern Chinese consumer has been felt both in international luxury retail markets such as Paris, London, Hong Kong and Singapore, and on the domestic market.
Domestic travel has increased rapidly in recent years, growing from 750 million person times in 2000 to 2.1 billion person times in 2010. Alongside the rise in the number of tourists, spending by tourists is also increasing. In 2000 the average expenditure was RMB427. By 2010 this had increased to RMB598. While this still lags behind foreign tourist expenditure, the proportional impact is greater given the numbers.
14
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
billion person-timesmillion person-
times
Foreigner (LHS) HK, MC & TW (LHS) Domestic (RHS)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
RMB Domestic Foreigner HK Macau Taiwan
Retail market drivers
Consumer demand
Rising tourism
Emphasis on quality
Emerging middle class
Rising incomes
Status symbols
Urbanisation
Growing economy
Gifts
15
Macro – Consumer confidence MasterCard consumer confidence survey,
Dec 1996–Jun 2011 NBS consumer confidence survey,
Jan 2000–Dec 2011
Source: MasterCard, Savills China Research Source: NBS, Savills China Research
Consumer confidence surveys often provide misleading results and contradict each other.
The MasterCard survey is a forward-looking survey with 50 as neutral, covering five variables (employment, economy, income, stock market and quality of life). The NBS survey monitors a similar range of economic variables with 100 being neutral.
While the MasterCard survey indicates a relatively rosy picture in China at the moment with consumers much more confident than the rest of Asia, the NBS survey, more frequently monitored, indicates rapidly deteriorating satisfaction and confidence.
16
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
>100 = confidence Confidence Satisfaction Expectation
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Dec-96 Dec-98 Dec-00 Dec-02 Dec-04 Dec-06 Dec-08 Dec-10
>50 = confidence Asia Pac China Shanghai Beijing Guangzhou
Retailer analysis Retail formats 18 Department stores 19 Hypermarkets 21 Fashion brands 22 Fast-food 23 Hurun report 24 Brand evolution 26 Market drivers 27 Retail categories 30 Lease terms 32 Handover conditions 33
17
Retailer – Retail formats
Format Characteristics Emergence
High-street retail
State owned or individual landlords; typically low profile although retailers are now making more use of the high visibility –
Department store
Primarily state owned or domestic, although international (Asian) operators are making inroads into the market
First tier: 1980s (early) Second tier: 1980s (early)
Retail podium
Part of mixed-use developments, typically of office towers in downtown locations but increasingly in residential developments in suburban
locations
First tier: 1990s (early) Second tier: 1990s (late)
Shopping mall
Similar to retail podiums although larger in scale and held by one landlord; typically fully enclosed
First tier: 2000s (early) Second tier: 2000s (late)
Community retail
Large developments typically connected to the Metro network; typically fully enclosed although more F&B- and leisure-focused schemes in
mature city markets with more temperate climates are increasingly open plan
First tier: 2000s (late) Second tier: 2000s (late)
Outlet A relatively new concept; not as developed as in the US, outlet stores
are slowly emerging as car ownership continues to rise and consumers place value and quality on an even footing
First tier: 2000s (late) Second tier: 2000s (late)
18
Retailer – Department stores Main department store operators,
Q4/2011 Main department store operators,
Q4/2011
Source: Company websites, Savills China Research Source: Company websites, Savills China Research
The department store market in China, the primary format for large-scale retail for a number of years in the early 1980s, remains fragmented with no operator dominating the market. Most operators tend to focus on a particular region in China, although with foreign operators now competing on a national level some are increasingly looking for more national coverage.
Each region typically has one powerful player with an established long-term presence, attractive locations, strong recognition from customers and satisfactory business performance.
19
60
47
36
3431
26
22
21
2018 13
InzoneParkson New world Dashang GroupVan's IntimeGolden EagleWangfujingMOIBailianPACIFIC
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40Store #
Inzone Parkson New world Dashang GroupVan's Intime Golden Eagle WangfujingMOI Bailian PACIFIC
Retailer – Department stores
Department store
operator Region City level
No. of
stores Home city Positioning
Inzone YRD Second to third tier 60 Jinan Mid-high
Parkson National First to second tier 47 Malaysia Mid
HK New World National First to second tier 36 Hong Kong Mid-high
Dashang Group North Second to third tier 34 Dalian Mid
Van's National First to third tier 31 Dalian Mid
Intime YRD Second to third tier 26 Hangzhou Mid-high
Golden Eagle National First to third tier 22 Nanjing Mid-high
Wangfujing National First to second tier 21 Beijing Mid-high
MOI National First to third tier 20 Shenzhen Mid
Bailian YRD First to second tier 18 Shanghai Mid
PACIFIC National First to second tier 13 Taiwan Mid
20
Retailer – Hypermarkets Number of foreign hypermarket stores per
city, Q2/2011
Source: Company websites, Savills China Research
As food quality and prices become increasingly pressing concerns for China, hypermarkets are emerging as a dominant player in setting market standards. The larger their operations the stronger their bargaining position with suppliers, and hence, the lower the costs. They also have better supply chain management and quality control systems in place to ensure the quality of the products sold. In China’s leading cities hypermarkets, as in many western countries, are positioned in decentralised locations, closer to residential communities and with lower overhead costs. Downtown locations in top-tiered cities are occupied by domestic incumbents and smaller supermarket stores. In lower tier cities, however, hypermarkets such as Carrefour and Jusco are able to anchor centrally located stores where projects are larger, rents are cheaper and landlords want to stimulate footfall.
21
0
10
20
30
40
50
60Store # Carrefour Wal-mart Tesco Metro Ikea Macalline
Retailer – Fashion brands Number of stores per brand per city,
Q2/2011
Source: Company websites, Savills China Research
For many retailers entering the mainland China market it makes sense to start with Shanghai and Beijing. Both cities have a large population, relatively high average disposable incomes and some of the best developed and managed retail premises. It is no surprise, therefore, that of the retailers surveyed their presence in these two cities was clearly much more significant than in any other city. On average the luxury retailer surveyed had four to five stores in Shanghai and Beijing, mid- to high-end fashion retailers had 10 to 11 and fast fashion had nine to ten stores.
Established retailers are now faced with the question of where to go next. Leading luxury brands have already established a presence in most first- and second-tier cities and are continuing to expand aggressively. Mid- to high-end brands favoured Hangzhou and Chengdu the most. Fast-fashion retailers, although late to the China market, are some of the most aggressive out of the three, eager to establish market share before the full force of the emerging middle class is felt in China.
22
0
2
4
6
8
10
12Store # Luxury fashion Mid to high fashion Fast fashion
Retailer – Fast-food brands Urban population per fast-food store1,
Q2/2011
Source: Company websites, Savills China Research
A survey of the leading the international fast-food chains in China looks to gauge the market penetration of foreign F&B brands and market size.
Combined, KFC, McDonald’s and Pizza Hut had approximately 400 stores in both Shanghai and Beijing by the end of 2011, far more than any other city in China. Store numbers fall to 250 in Shenzhen, 180 in Guangzhou and between 50 and 150 in other second-tier cities, with the exception of Kunming.
Fast-food stores have already been widely accepted by Chinese consumers. Operators and are now focusing on maintaining the performance of existing stores in response to increased competition from new entrants and competing F&B formats. Future opportunities for operators primarily lie in lower tier cities and suburban developments in leading cities.
23
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
Population per store
Retailer – Hurun, the super wealthy Number of US$ billionaires by nationality,
March 2011 Individuals with more than RMB100 million,
2010
Source: Forbes, Savills Research China Source: Hurun Report, Savills Research China
China’s economic miracle has generated great wealth for the upper echelons of society.
China now has the second largest number of US$ billionaires in the world after the US, according to the Forbes report.
The Hurun report, a Chinese equivalent, puts the figure of “known” US$ billionaires in China at close to 271 and the
number of “hidden” US$ billionaires at close to 300 individuals. If the Hurun report is correct this would mean that there are more Chinese US$ billionaires than American.
24
412
115
1015552
3836
323026
313 United StatesChinaRussiaIndiaGermanyTurkeyHong KongUnited KingdomBrazilJapanOther
9,400
7,300
3,810
3,160
2,5902,130
26,610BeijingShanghaiGuangzhouShenzhenHangzhouWenzhouOther
Retailer – Hurun, best of the best
Overall luxury brand Louis Vuitton Jewellery Cartier Overall watch Patek Philippe Fashion label Giorgio Armani Accessory Hermès Skincare Estee Lauder Furniture Markor Home Luxury kitchen appliance Miele Performance car Jaguar XK Luxury yacht brand Azimut International private bank UBS Foreign personal banking HSBC Domestic private bank China Merchants Bank Private club in China Chang'An Club Golf club Mission Hills Luxury real estate brand Star River Laptop computer Apple Luxury hotel brand Shangri-La Luxury boutique hotel Park Hyatt Shanghai International luxury destination France Asia luxury destination Japan
Overall brand Hermès Jewellery Piaget Luxury watch Montblanc Luxury watch IWC Sports watch Omega – Speedmaster Super luxury car Ferrari 599 Furniture Markor Home Luxury kitchen appliance Gaggenau International luxury
destination Maldives
Luxury hotel brand The Ritz-Carlton Ladies watch Omega – Ladymatic Overall luxury hotel brand Waldorf
Hurun best of the best star performers, 2011 Hurun best of the best awards, 2011
Between April and November 2010 the Hurun Report surveyed 401 mainland Chinese millionaires, each with assets of at least RMB10 million, among them 45 people with assets of at least RMB100 million. For the seventh year running, surveys were carried out on a one-on-one basis, making this the largest and most concise survey of its kind in China.
25
Retailer – Brand evolution
Foreign fashion brands, particularly low- to mid-end fashion brands from Hong Kong, Taiwan and southeast Asia, started to enter China in the early 1990s
Fast-food chains, such as KFC and McDonald’s, opened their first stores in the first half of the 1990s Foreign hypermarket chains entered the market in the mid-1990s Mid- to high-end fashion brands and mid-end F&B, mainly from the US, entered China after 2000 Retailers which previously only manufactured products in China, started to view China as a market in
itself in the mid-2000s High-street and fast-fashion retailers started to make a decisive push into the China market after
2005. This trend is expected to continue to gain pace in the coming years Going forward, most categories of retailers are already present in China. The one thing lacking is a
strong domestic brand presence which can compete at the same level as the international brands In the future, an expansion of operations and broadening of product and services selection, as well as
the consolidation of smaller stores into larger flagship stores is expected
1990–2000 Mass market and fast-food
• 1989 KFC • 1993 Giordano • 1994 McDonald's • 1996 Carrefour • 2000 Starbucks
2000–2005 Mid- and high-end fashion
• 2001 Louis Vuitton • 2001 Gucci • 2003 Swarovski
2005–2011 Fast-fashion retailers
• 2007 H&M • 2008 M&S • 2010 Gap
2012 onwards Domestic retailers? Consolidation of stores?
26
Retailer – Luxury market drivers
• Luxury Brands
• Status symbols • Gifts • Emergence of the
super-rich class • Early-starter
advantages
• Growing saturation in
first-tier cities • Difficulty in finding
suitable premises/locations in lower tier cities
• Lower recognition in low-tier cities
• Dilution of brand prestige
27
Retailer – Mid-range market drivers • Emerging middle class • Urbanisation • Rising incomes • Emphasis on improving
quality and lifestyle over purely cost
• Improvement in product offerings
• Consumer disparity in
different areas • Franchise issues for
some early entrants • Lower recognition in
low-tier cities
28
Retailer – Fast-fashion market drivers
• Price advantages for a
wide range of consumers
• Urbanisation • Rising incomes
• Consumer disparity in
different areas • Lower recognition in
low-tier cities • Difficulty in finding
suitable locations in lower tier cities
29
Retailer – F&B categories
Fast-food (150–500 sq m) • Saturation in urban areas
of first-tier cities • Still a popular place for
gatherings
Kiosk (5–20 sq m) • Providing juices, desserts,
specialty foods… • Some providing seats • Some also opening casual
dining stores ()
Casual (150–500 sq m) • Sushi, noodles, desserts,
simple western... • Between fast-food and
middle dining
Mid-sized (500–800 sq m) • Various types, normally
mid- or mid- to high-end • Per sitting per capita
consumption ~RMB60–150
Large-sized (>1,000 sq m) • Fine dining • Chinese banquets • Hot pots • Also some mass-market,
targeted and very popular
30
Retailer – Entertainment categories
Cinema (4,000–6,000 sq m) • Fast growing • Supported by strong box
office
KTV (500–1,000 sq m) • Popular among the 15–50
age group all over the country
• Group activity • Convenience
Gym (2,000–5,000 sq m) • Especially welcomed by
white collars • Still not widely utilised • Preference to use
residence clubhouses
Club (1000–2500 sq m) • Mostly positioned high,
with targeted consumer group
• Socialising • Business entertaining
Bookshop (500–800 sq m) • Struggling with online
sellers • Weaker ability to take high
rents
Skating rink (~2,000 sq m) • Relatively high operation
costs • A favourite activity for
young people
31
Retailer – Lease terms
GLA (sq m)
Lease period (years)
Rent-free/fit-out period (months)
Sample tenants
Fashion (specialty) 40–150 2–3 1–2 Calvin Klein, Guess, Nautica
Mini-anchor tenants 1,000–3,000 5–10 4–6 I.T. flagship store, Department store >10,000 15–20 6–8 Parkson
Non-F&B retailers
F&B retailers GLA
(sq m) Lease period
(years) Rent-free/fit-out period (months)
Sample tenants
Small-sized F&B 150–500 3–5 2–3 Fast-food, Japanese restaurants
Mid-sized F&B 500–800 6–10 3–4 Chinese fine dining Large-sized F&B > 1,000 8–10 3–4 Local restaurants
32
Retailer – Handover conditions
Bare-shell/wet-box structure Central air-conditioning system and exhaust holes Smoke detector and fire fighting equipment (including sprinklers) Store window display and glass/shutter door Phone system, POS system and other appropriate telecommunication systems Water, electricity and gas conduits (for F&B, beauty businesses)
33
Retail Real Estate Retail types 35 Open vs enclosed plan 36 Retail development 37 Retail dashboard 38 Prime benchmark 39 Rent index 40 Rents by city 41 Investment 42 Cap value and yields 43 Key trends 44 Key difficulties 47
34
Retail types
Department store (百货商场)
Shopping mall (购物中心)
High-street retail (街铺)
Community shopping centre
(社区购物中心)
Outlet (奥特莱斯)
Retail podium (商业裙楼)
Main types
Sub-categories
35
Open vs enclosed plan
Enclosed plan • Still the mainstream format for retail projects in most
cities • Traditional design • Often sterile environments • Single structures, normally four to ten storeys • Easier environmental control and management • Better tenant visibility
Open plan • Pleasant natural environment • Multiple small low-rise buildings (two to four storeys) • Flexibility of store design/image/display • In keeping with surrounding architecture • Difficulties in management • Open to the elements
36
Retail development Land acquisition (-4 to 5 years)
•Land use rights
Planning and design (-3 to -4 or 5 years)
•Land use permits/planning permits/construction permits
Construction (0 to -3 years)
Soft and grand opening (0 years)
Tenant repositioning (2 to 3 years)
•Proportion of category/level
Tenant fit-out (-1 to -5 months) although in some cases up to a year
Pre leasing (0 to -2 years)
Years
pre
- an
d p
ost-
so
ft o
pen
ing
-5
-3
-4
-1
-2
+1
0
+3
+2
+4
Leasing and management (0 years onwards)
•Tenant coordination •Marketing and promotion
37
The retail market at a glance…
* Based on GLA and the top five performing retail centres
in the city, excluding management fees
Shanghai Beijing Guangzhou Shenzhen
Stock million sq m 5.0 4.7 3.0 1.5
Prime occupancy rate
% 97 90 90 97
Rents (prime 5)* RMB per sq m
per month 2,000 1,385 2,040 1,750
2011 rental growth
% 7.0 10.0 2.0 3.2
Rent cycle – Early upswing Early upswing Late upswing Late upswing
Gross revisionary yield
% 5.0–6.0 6.0–7.0 6.5–7.5 6.5–7.5
2012 supply as a % of 2011 stock
% 15.5 31.3 20.0 28.3
38
Rents – Prime benchmark Average rents (prime 5)*,
Q2/2008–Q4/2011 Cost comparison (prime 5),
Q4/2011
* Based on GLA and the top five performing retail centres in the city, excluding management fees Source: Savills China Research
The costs of renting, especially the best premises, are still relatively low in the mainland compared with regional levels in mature cities.
The average cost (base rent, management fee and tax) of the five best projects in first-tier cities of mainland China is approximately 70% lower than Hong Kong, 40% lower than Singapore and Taiwan, and 20% lower than Tokyo (although Guangzhou is roughly on par with Tokyo).
Obviously, premises are only part of the equation for retailers, with taxes (import, VAT, etc), wages, management, and logistics also playing a significant role in gauging the desirability of opening stores.
39
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200 USD psm pmth net
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2008 2009 2010 2011
RMB psm pmth Shanghai Beijing Guangzhou Shenzhen
Rents – Index Property cycle,
Q4/2011 Rental indices,
Q1/2008–Q4/2011
Source: Savills China Research
Mainland markets were less affected by the 2008 GFC when compared with other regional centres. This was due primarily to the stimulus package which arrested the economic slowdown and the resilience of the employment market for white collar workers.
Rental growth in prime locations has slowed in recent quarters as new supply increases competition between landlords and offers retailers more options.
40
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
08 09 10 11
Q1/2008=100 Beijing Shanghai Hong Kong Tokyo SydneyHong KongSingapore
Guangzhou
ShenzhenBeijing
Kuala Lumpur
Early upswing
TokyoOsakaSeoul
Ho Chih Ming City
Early downswing
Late downswing
Late upswing
TaipeiShanghaiSydney
Hanoi
Rents – Area comparison Annual rental growth,
2011 Rental ranges of the main retail areas,
2011
Source: Savills China Research Source: Savills China Research
Positive rental growth was recorded in all markets monitored in 2011, although the extent by which they increased varied significantly.
Beijing, the cheapest retail rental market among the first-tier cities, recorded the strongest growth in 2011 despite supply pressure as retailers recorded robust turnover. Leading second-tier cities also recorded notable growth as a result of increasing demand from international retailers looking to expand out of the first-tier cities.
41
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
Shanghai
Beijing
Guangzhou
Shenzhen
Chengdu
Tianjin
Hangzhou 0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000RMB psm pmth
Beijing Guangzhou Shanghai Shenzhen Chengdu Hangzhou Tianjin
Investment Retail investment by city,
Q1/2008–Q4/2011 Investment by property type,
Q1/2008– Q4/2011
Source: RCA, Savills China Research Source: RCA, Savills China Research
The retail market has seen growing interest from investors as yields and internal rates of return in traditional stabilised office and residential developments have been compressed over the last two years. Investors looking for add-value, development or lease risk see the retail market as offering significant upside if executed correctly, while more opportunities have been presented as inexperienced domestic developers fail to maximise the potential of existing developments.
At the same it is easier to sell the long-term growth story behind the acquisition of a retail development. China’s middle class and undeveloped consumer industry are likely to develop as the government targets an increase in domestic consumption.
42
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Q1
08
Q2
08
Q3
08
Q4
08
Q1
09
Q2
09
Q3
09
Q4
09
Q1
10
Q2
10
Q3
10
Q4
10
Q1
11
Q2
11
Q3
11
Q4
11
US$ billion Apartment Hotel Industrial Office Retail
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Q1
08
Q2
08
Q3
08
Q4
08
Q1
09
Q2
09
Q3
09
Q4
09
Q1
10
Q2
10
Q3
10
Q4
10
Q1
11
Q2
11
Q3
11
Q4
11
US$ billion Shanghai Beijing Guangzhou & Shenzhen Other cities
Capital value and yield/cap rates
Projects in mature areas are highly sought-after but stock is extremely limited in first-tier cities and leading second-tier cities.
Main investment players include overseas retail funds, global retailers, leading domestic retailers and domestic developers.
Retail en-bloc transactions usually involve a large amount of capital and skilled management experience, keeping away private buyers or small to medium enterprises.
Consensus on yields is hard to come by as most investments involve add-value rather than stabilised projects.
Prior to repositioning: Entry cap rates (ie, NOI yield): First tier: 3.0%–3.5%; second tier: 3.5%–4.5%
After repositioning: Stabilised cap rates (after two years): First tier: 4.5%–5.5%; second tier: 5.5%–
6.5%
43
Significant trends The retail market has always been the most dynamic sector of the real estate industry, reacting to changes in the property market, retailer requirements, as well as consumer and architectural trends. In China this is no different and recent trends include:
Project development and management Shopping malls are now the dominant retail format in first-tier cities; in second- and lower tier
cities there is still fierce competition between shopping malls and department stores for dominance
A handful of leading domestic developers are becoming increasingly sophisticated and competing with international developers, working closer with retailers, branding malls, and understanding tenant mixes and consumer opinion and trends
Many projects are still developed by inexperienced domestic developers which are likely to underperform
The China market remains fragmented with local developers typically fashioning little fiefdoms of market dominance
First-tier cities focus on the development of decentralised projects while second-tier cities focus on the development of prime areas and new CBDs
Investment/development companies are acquiring underperforming, centrally located retail assets in first-tier cities to renovate and add value
44
Significant trends (cont.) Retailers Retailers, especially high end, are looking to acquire high-street premises for flagship
stores, especially in first-tier cities Store sizes are increasing as retailers consolidate premises and increase product
selection Leisure and entertainment retailers are more important as retail developments’ scale
and locations require more diversified tenant mixes to generate footfall There is increased competition from local retailers, although they are still under-
represented by international norms Competition from online retail sales from leading websites including Yihaodian (一号
店), Taobao (淘宝), 360 Buy (京东网) and Amazon (亚马逊) present concern Established retailers are buying back franchises, but new entrants are still adopting
franchises apart from flagship stores in first-tier cities Retailers are adopting made in US and Europe products which are highly valued by
Chinese consumers There is an increasing number of international retailers entering the China market
45
Significant trends (cont.)
Consumers More sophisticated consumers are harder to please, demanding more consumer
rights and after sales services Brand loyalty/recognition is becoming stronger as brands establish a long-term
presence and marketing campaigns gain traction Word-of-mouth still remains one of the most important ways for retailers to reach out
to consumers, although the internet is playing a more important role in providing research and pricing expectations
The retail-therapy mentality is emerging in Chinese consumers, especially in first-tier cities, as disposable incomes continue to rise
Made in the US and Europe brands are highly valued The overseas buying trend is still a significant obstacle for retailers; outbound tourism
numbers increase exposure to international retail markets and buying opportunities. At the same time as product selection and quality improves, the gap between product offerings should narrow
46
Key difficulties for developers and retailers Knowing the local market – consumer tastes/what brands will work well Regional differences Constantly changing
Knowing your place in the local market – unique strengths, differentiation Access to data Useful and meaningful data Reliability of this data
Developers Understanding the legal system and regulatory environment Rule of law – interpretation of regulations Corruption
Finding suitable locations Finding a suitable and reliable joint venture partner
Retailers Containing overheads Registration Import tariffs and taxes Short leases Building reputations for retailers who are not internationally established
47
City Overview Beijing 50 Guangzhou 51 Shanghai 52 Shenzhen 53 Chengdu 54 Chongqing 55 Dalian 56 Hangzhou 57 Nanjing 58 Ningbo 59 Qingdao 60 Shenyang 61 Suzhou 62 Tianjin 63 Wuhan 64 Wuxi 65 Xiamen 66 Xi’an 67
48
China tier cities
49
Drivers Main industries
Prime retail malls Major retail streets /
areas
Beijing
Political centre Headquarter economy
(state-owned enterprises)
Policy support Skilled workforce Largest grouping of
high net worth individuals
Electronics Communications Wholesale and retail Finance IT
The Mall at Oriental China World
Shopping Mall Beijing APM Joy City Park Life
Wangfujing Xidan Street Sanlitun Qianmen
(2010 data) Units Value YoY
growth
Metro population million 19.6 11.7% Area sq km 16,411 – GDP RMB billion 1,411.4 10.2% GDP per capita RMB 75,943 7.1% Foreign direct investment US$ billion 8.4 2.1% Disposable income RMB 29,073 8.7% Expenditure per capita RMB 19,934 11.4%
50
Drivers Main industries
Prime retail malls Major retail streets /
areas
Guangzhou
Transport hub Business centre of
south China Large population Special economic
zones
Trade Logistics Manufacturing Processing Software
Teemall Grandview Plaza China Plaza Laperle City Sky Galleria Taikoo Hui
Beijing Road Shangxia Jiu
pedestrian street
(2010 data) Units Value YoY
growth
Metro population million 8.06 1.5% Area sq km 7,434 - GDP RMB billion 1,074.8 13.2% GDP per capita RMB 87,458 - Foreign direct investment US$ billion 5.0 31.4% Disposable income RMB 30,659 11.0% Expenditure per capita RMB 25,012 9.6%
51
Drivers Main industries
Prime retail malls Major retail streets /
areas
Shanghai
Heading up China’s largest economic region
China headquarters for multinational corporations
Skilled workforce Large population Business environment Consumer market
Financial services Retail and wholesale Real estate
Plaza 66 Westgate Mall Raffles City CITIC Square Grand Gateway
Nanjing Road (East) Huaihai Road
(Middle) Xujiahui
(2010 data) Units Value YoY
growth
Metro population million 23.0 5.0% Area sq km 6,340 - GDP RMB billion 1,716.6 10.3% GDP per capita RMB 76,074 - Foreign direct investment US$ billion 15.3 15.1% Disposable income RMB 31,838 10.4% Expenditure per capita RMB 23,200 10.5%
52
Drivers Main industries
Prime retail malls Major retail streets /
areas
Shenzhen
Special economic zone Gateway to mainland
China Young workforce Migrant city Electronics boom Shenzhen stock
exchange
Telecommunications Computer
manufacturing Electronics
Shenzhen MixC KK Mall Coco Park Yitian Holiday Plaza Coastal City
Luohu CBD Futian CBD Houhai (Nanshan
CBD) Huaqiangbei Overseas Chinese
Town (OCT)
(2010 data) Units Value YoY
growth
Metro population million 10.4 4.2% Area sq km 1,992 - GDP RMB billion 958.2 12.2% GDP per capita RMB 94,296 - Foreign direct investment US$ billion 5.7 58.9% Disposable income RMB 32,381 10.7% Expenditure per capita RMB 22,807 5.9%
53
Drivers Main industries
Prime retail malls Major retail streets /
areas
Chengdu
Emerging R&D hub 133 to 500
multinational corporations present with more coming
Major transport hub in the western region
Key retail market in western China
Electronics IT Manufacturing Finance
Yanlord Plaza Renhe Spring Plaza Galleria Shopping
Center MixC
Chunxi Road Yanshikou
(2010 data) Units Value YoY
growth
Metro population million 11.5 0.8% Area sq km 12,121 - GDP RMB billion 555.1 15.0% GDP per capita RMB 41,253 - Foreign direct investment US$ billion 5.0 197.9% Disposable income RMB 20,835 18.5% Expenditure per capita RMB 15,511 18.0%
54
Drivers Main industries
Prime retail malls Major retail streets /
areas
Chongqing
Only municipality in western China and the world’s largest municipality by population and area
Transportation hub – biggest inland river port
Abundant natural resources
Automotives, heavy industries
Chemicals Consumer goods and
processed foods (domestic)
Major refining centre Vibrant defense sector
Metropolitan Plaza ASE Central Square Paradise Walk Times Square Guotai Plaza
Jiefangbei Guanyinqiao Nanping Yanjiaping
(2010 data) Units Value YoY
growth
Metro population million 28.8 0.9% Area sq km 82,826 - GDP RMB billion 792.6 17.1% GDP per capita RMB 27,596 - Foreign direct investment US$ billion 6.3 65.6% Disposable income RMB 17,532 11.3% Expenditure per capita RMB 13,335 9.8%
55
Drivers Main industries
Prime retail malls Major retail streets /
areas
Dalian
Important business process outsourcing location
Largest airport in northeastern China
Third largest port in China
Second largest futures exchange in China
Electronics/hi-tech Tourism Major shipbuilding
hub Machinery
manufacturing Petrochemicals and
oil refining
Tianxing Roosevelt Center
Times Square Peace Plaza Parkland Eton Place
Renmin Road Qingniwa Xian Road
(2010 data) Units Value YoY
growth
Metro population million 5.86 0.3% Area sq km 12,574 - GDP RMB billion 515.8 15.2% GDP per capita RMB 77,704 - Foreign direct investment US$ billion 5.3 - Disposable income RMB 21,293 12.0% Expenditure per capita RMB 16,580 8.1%
56
Drivers Main industries
Prime retail malls Major retail streets /
areas
Hangzhou
Strong retail market Thriving residential
market, equivalent to Shanghai in price
Skilled labour force Hot-spot to live, shop
and work
Tourism Light industry Textiles IT
MixC Hangzhou Euro Plaza Mingde Plaza
Wulin Qianjiang New City Hubin
(2010 data) Units Value YoY
growth
Metro population million 6.9 0.8% Area sq km 16,596 - GDP RMB billion 594.9 12.0% GDP per capita RMB 86,691 - Foreign direct investment US$ billion 7.7 10.7% Disposable income RMB 30,034 14.8% Expenditure per capita RMB 20,219 12.6%
57
Drivers Main industries
Prime retail malls Major retail streets /
areas
Nanjing
Transportation hub in eastern China
Nation's capital prior to 1949 – significant political attention
National centre for education, research and tourism
Electronics Healthcare Petrochemicals Iron and steel
Deji Plaza Nanjing Aqua City
Xinjiekou Shanxi Road –
Gulou Guangzhou Road–
Zhujiang Road Hexi New Town Confucius Temple
(2010 data) Units Value YoY
growth
Metro population million 6.3 0.8% Area sq km 6,582 - GDP RMB billion 513.1 13.1% GDP per capita RMB 65,273 - Foreign direct investment US$ billion 4.8 4.8% Disposable income RMB 31,838 10.4% Expenditure per capita RMB 18,156 14.4%
58
Drivers Main industries
Prime retail malls Major retail streets /
areas
Ningbo
Flow-over effect from Shanghai’s economy
Fourth largest port in China
Active domestic private economy (small to medium enterprises)
Entrepreneurial spirit
Electrical products Textiles Food Industrial tools
Tianyi Square Heyi Plaza Wanda Plaza
Tianyi Square
(2010 data) Units Value YoY
growth
Metro population million 5.7 5.4% Area sq km 9,817 - GDP RMB billion 516.3 12.4% GDP per capita RMB 90,175 - Foreign direct investment US$ billion 4.1 18.2% Disposable income RMB 30,166 10.8% Expenditure per capita RMB 19,420 10.2%
59
Drivers Main industries
Prime retail malls Major retail streets /
areas
Qingdao
Fifth largest port in China, ninth in the world
Key target for Japanese and Korean investors (proximity)
Variety of mineral deposits
Home to local champions: Haier, Tsingtao…
Maritime engineering Electronics
manufacturing Energy production Tourism
Hisense Plaza Marina City Jusco
Hongkong Middle Road
Taidong area Zhongshan Road
belt Shandong Road belt
(2010 data) Units Value YoY
growth
Metro population million 7.64 0.9% Area sq km 10,978 - GDP RMB billion 566.6 12.9% GDP per capita RMB 65,812 - Foreign direct investment US$ billion 2.8 52.8% Disposable income RMB 24,998 11.8% Expenditure per capita RMB 17,531 9.0%
60
Drivers Main industries
Prime retail malls Major retail streets /
areas
Shenyang
Trying to reorient the economy towards the services and IT sectors
Many carmakers and related industries, such as Michelin
Heavy industry, (aerospace, machine tools, automotive, heavy equipment and defence)
Software Electronics
Charter Shopping Centre
Palace 66 Joy City MixC City
Golden Corridor Taiyuan Street Zhongjie Street Beihang
(2010 data) Units Value YoY
growth
Metro population million 7.2 0.4% Area sq km 12,980 - GDP RMB billion 501.8 14.1% GDP per capita RMB 62,357 - Foreign direct investment US$ billion 8.1 - Disposable income RMB 20,541 11.2% Expenditure per capita RMB 19,961 5.3%
61
Drivers Main industries
Prime retail malls Major retail streets /
areas
Suzhou
Second largest industrial city in the YRD
Suzhou Industrial Park – home to 40 Fortune 500 companies
Major foreign direct investment recipient
Preferential policies Links Shanghai to
Nanjing
Tourism Electronics, IT,
electrical machinery and household electrical appliances
Biotechnology and medicine
Suzhou In City Suzhou Times
Square
Guanqian Street Jinji Lake Nanmen
(2010 data) Units Value YoY
growth
Metro population million 6.4 0.7% Area sq km 8,488 - GDP RMB billion 922.9 13.3% GDP per capita RMB 93,043 - Foreign direct investment US$ billion 16.9 - Disposable income RMB 29,219 7.5% Expenditure per capita RMB 17,879 4.4%
62
Drivers Main industries
Prime retail malls Major retail streets /
areas
Tianjin
Pilot reforms in the financial sector
Central government support
Geothermal energy Largest port in north
China Third largest city in
China
Petrochemical industry, biotechnology and medicine
Metallurgy Automobile Renewable energy
equipment
Maigo Heping Wanda
Plaza Tianjin Joy City
Nanjing Road Xiaobailou Youyi Road Binjiang Road Heping Road
(2010 data) Units Value YoY
growth
Metro population million 13.0 5.8% Area sq km 11,760 - GDP RMB billion 922.4 17.4% GDP per capita RMB 72,994 - Foreign direct investment US$ billion 15.3 10.5% Disposable income RMB 24,293 13.5% Expenditure per capita RMB 16,561 11.9%
63
Drivers Main industries
Prime retail malls Major retail streets /
areas
Wuhan
Scientific and educational hub of central China
Primary investors are from Japan, France and Hong Kong
Retail consumption accounted for half of GDP in 2009
Automobile and machinery manufacturing
Iron and steel industry
Logistics Tobacco Pharmaceuticals
Wuhan International Plaza
Wuhan Shopping Mall
Chicony Plaza
Hangkong Road Jianghan Road Zhongnan Road China Optical Valley Xudong Avenue Jiedaokou
(2010 data) Units Value YoY
growth
Metro population million 8.4 0.1% Area sq km 8,494 - GDP RMB billion 556.6 14.7% GDP per capita RMB - - Foreign direct investment US$ billion - - Disposable income RMB 20,806 13.2% Expenditure per capita RMB 14,490 14.0%
64
Drivers Main industries
Prime retail malls Major retail streets /
areas
Wuxi
State-level micro-electronic hi-tech industrial base
Private enterprises Attempt to develop
the largest solar city in China
Machinery and metallurgy
Light equipment Electronics Textiles – silk-
producing centre
Wuxi Commercial Building
Beicheng Tian Jie Baoli Plaza
Zhongshan Road CBD Dongan Road Guangyi Road
(2010 data) Units Value YoY
growth
Metro population million 4.7 0.2% Area sq km 4,788 - GDP RMB billion 579.3 13.2% GDP per capita RMB 92,167 - Foreign direct investment US$ billion 4.8 - Disposable income RMB 27,750 10.9% Expenditure per capita RMB 17,003 8.9%
65
Drivers Main industries
Prime retail malls Major retail streets /
areas
Xiamen
Developing environmentally friendly industries
Strong ties with Taiwan Important investment
capital from Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan
Tourism Electronics Machinery Chemicals Fishing
SM City Plaza World Trade Center
Zhongshan Road Fushan
(2010 data) Units Value YoY
growth
Metro population million 3.5 40% Area sq km 1,573 - GDP RMB billion 206 15.1% GDP per capita RMB - - Foreign direct investment US$ billion 1.6 20.4% Disposable income RMB 29,253 12.0% Expenditure per capita RMB 19,961 11.0%
66
Drivers Main industries
Prime retail malls Major retail streets /
areas
Xi’an
Xi'an National Civil Industrial Base
Telecommunications – Huawei, ZTE, CATT, NEC, Fujitsu and Siemens
Low-cost, well-educated populace
Telecommunications Business process
outsourcing Tourism Aerospace Education Equipment
manufacturing
Century Ginwa department store
Zhongda International
Bell Tower Xiaozhai Hi-tech Industrial
Development Zone
(2010 data) Units Value YoY
growth
Metro population million 7.8 1.2% Area sq km 10,108 - GDP RMB billion 324.2 14.5% GDP per capita RMB 38,343 - Foreign direct investment US$ billion 1.2 99.4% Disposable income RMB 18,404 -3% Expenditure per capita RMB 14,160 0%
67
Notes page
68
Notes page
69
Notes page
• This document is prepared by Savills for information only. While reasonable care has been exercised in preparing this document, it is subject to change and these particulars do not constitute, nor constitute part of, an offer or contract; interested parties should not rely on the statements or representations of fact but must satisfy themselves by inspection or otherwise as to the accuracy. No person in the employment of the agent or the agent's principal has any authority to make any representations or warranties whatsoever in relation to these particulars and Savills cannot be held responsible for any liability whatsoever or for any loss howsoever arising from or in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this document.
70
Savills China
ChinaAlbert LauHead & Managing Director of Savills ChinaHead of Investment and Sales, Savills ChinaEmail: [email protected]: (8621) 6391 6696 20/F, Shanghai Central Plaza, 381 Huaihai Middle Road, Luwan District,Shanghai 200020, PRC
Central ChinaSiu Wing ChuDeputy Managing Director of Savills ShanghaiHead of Retail ChinaEmail: [email protected]: (8621) 6391 668920/F, Shanghai Central Plaza, 381 Huaihai Middle Road, Luwan District,Shanghai 200020, PRC
Northern ChinaBilly ChauManaging Director of Northern ChinaEmail: [email protected]: (8610) 5925 2000Unit 1, 21/F, East Tower, Twin Towers,B-12 Jianguomenwai Avenue, Chaoyang,Beijing 100022, PRC
Northern ChinaDuke ZhenDirector of Retail Consultancy, Beijing Email: [email protected]: (8610) 5925 2031Unit 1, 21/F, East Tower, Twin Towers,B-12 Jianguomenwai Avenue, Chaoyang,Beijing 100022, PRC
Northern ChinaJoanna LowDirector of Retail Leasing, BeijingEmail: [email protected]: (8610) 5925 2035Unit 1, 21/F, East Tower, Twin Towers,B-12 Jianguomenwai Avenue, Chaoyang,Beijing 100022, PRC
Southern ChinaBenny KwokDirector of Retail, Southern China Email: [email protected]: (8620) 3892 7174Unit A, 5/F, Anlian Plaza, 4018 Jintian Road, Futian District, Shenzhen 518026, PRC
Southern ChinaWoody LamManaging Director of Southern ChinaEmail: [email protected]: (8620) 3892 7108Room 906, R & F Centre, No. 10 Huaxia Road, Zhujiang New Town,Guangzhou 510623, PRC
Western ChinaBacky FungHead of Agency and Investment, ChengduEmail: [email protected]: (8628) 8658 7841Room 2106 Yanlord Landmark Square No.#1 Section 2, Renmin South Road, Jinjing District, Chengdu 610016, PRC
Western ChinaEric WoDeputy Managing Director of Western ChinaEmail: [email protected]: (8628) 8658 7828Room 2106 Yanlord Landmark Square No.#1 Section 2, Renmin South Road, Jinjing District, Chengdu 610016, PRC
China Research and PublicationsJames MacdonaldEmail: [email protected]: (8621) 6391 668820/F, Shanghai Central Plaza, 381 Huaihai Middle Road, Luwan District, Shanghai 200020, PRC