savills chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... ·...

72
Savills China Retail Chart Book 1 2012

Upload: others

Post on 10-Jul-2020

1 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Savills ChinaRetail Chart Book

1

2012

Page 2: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Introduction

The retail market is one the hardest in the real estate sector to analyse; every province and city has slightly different characteristics, every retailer has a different strategy, every consumer a different taste.

Developments come in all shapes, sizes and colours, and each retail unit is valued slightly differently to another depending on degree of visibility, or distance from the nearest Metro station or competing retailer.

This reports attempts to highlight some of the overriding characteristics and trends but does not presume to delve any deeper into the specifics of individual markets. It is necessary to approach every market as having its own unique opportunities and difficulties.

James Macdonald Head of China Research

2

Page 3: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Macro and Demographic Domestic demand 4 Chinese consumption vs global 5 Retail sales 6 Incomes and expenditure 7 Expenditure breakdown 8 Gini and Engel 9 Inflation and interest rates 10 Service sector 11 Age pyramids 12 Urbanisation 13 Tourism 14 Market drivers 15 Consumer confidence 16

3

Page 4: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Macro – Potential for growth in domestic demand Domestic savings as a % of total GDP,

1960–2009 Consumption as a percentage of GDP,

1970–2009

4 Source: IMF, Savills China Research Source: IMF, Savills China Research

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08

Euro area Brazil China India Japan Russia UK US World

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08

Euro area Brazil China India Japan Russia UK US World

China has one of the highest domestic savings rates in the world, higher than both its developed and developing world peers. Despite the government’s efforts to reverse this trend, savings rates have continued to rise in recent years reaching 53% of GDP by 2009. Savings rates are believed to have remained stubbornly high in part because of the nation’s inadequate social security framework. Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected expenditures, including unemployment, healthcare costs, or some other catastrophe.

Despite being the second largest economy in the world, consumption only accounted for 35% of GDP in 2009, having fallen from 47% in 2000, as fixed investment and capital expenditure have taken priority.

Page 5: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Macro – Chinese consumption’s global importance Household consumption index,

1990–2010 China’s contribution to global household

consumption, 1970–2009

Source: UN, Savills China Research Source: UN, Savills China Research

Despite many people talking about high savings rates in China and the lack of consumer mentality, household consumption has increased dramatically over the last 20 years. It has not, however, exceeded GDP growth, which explains why its contribution to the economy has been shrinking.

From 1990 to 2010 household consumption grew 4.8 fold (inflation adjusted) from RMB871 billion to RMB14.0 trillion. While accounting for a decreasing amount of global consumption between 1970 and the early 1990s, China’s contribution to global

consumption levels has skyrocketed in recent years and now represents more than 5.6% of global household consumption in 2010.

5

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

1990 = 100 Euro World Brazil China India Japan Russia UK US

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08

Page 6: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Macro – Retail sales continue to grow at pace Retail sales,

Jan 1994–Dec 2011 Retail sales per capita by tier city,

2001–2009

6 Source: NBS, Savills China Research Source: NBS, Savills China Research

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10

RMB billion Retail sales (LHS) YoY growth (RHS)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

RMB per annum 1 2 3 4 5

While China was known as the world’s factory at the start of the new millennia, this perception has quickly changed. China has emerged as the world’s largest auto market, retailers register record sales growth in the country and Chinese tourists swamp luxury goods stores in Paris, London and New York. Retail sales have grown between 10% and 20% since 2004 and during the global financial crisis (GFC), China was one of the fastest growing markets in the world.

Retail sales growth has quickly trickled down to smaller cities. Retailers established in key mainland markets have looked to expand footprints in new territories, while businesses looking to save costs have relocated to lower tier cities, generating new jobs and pushing up income levels.

Page 7: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Macro – Income and expenditure Disposable income, expenditure and

savings rates,1992–2010 Urban household income distribution,

2005–2010

Source: NBS, Savills China Research Source: NBS, Savills China Research

Disposable incomes have risen at a steady, and by western standards phenomenal, rate over the last 20 years. Consumption expenditure, however, has not been able to keep up, resulting in less of the total disposable income being spent.

In just six short years the proportion of urban households in China making more than RMB100,000 per annum has increased from 2.1% to 12.2%, while the percentage of households making less than RMB20,000 has fallen from 28.6% to 6.2%. Such figures may be overstated as they do not take into account high inflation rates. Nonetheless, there have been significant gains in bringing about China’s middle class.

7

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

RMB Disposable income (LHS) Expenditure (LHS) Savings rate (RHS)

29%22%

16%11% 8% 6%

45%

45%

42%

36%

32%27%

17%20%

24%

26%

27%

28%

6%7%

10%

13%15%

17%

2% 3%4%

6%8%

9%

2% 3% 4% 7% 9% 12%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

05 06 07 08 09 10

<RMB20,000 RMB20,000-40,000 RMB40,000-60,000RMB60,000-80,000 RMB80,000-100,000 >RMB100,000

Page 8: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Macro – Consumer expenditure breakdown Urban consumer expenditure breakdown,

1992–2010 Rural consumer expenditure breakdown,

1992–2010

Source: NBS, Savills China Research Source: NBS, Savills China Research

As incomes have risen and consumption on consumer and luxury products has increased, the percentage of expenditure going to food has decreased rapidly (despite the cultural significance of food and rapid inflation of food stuffs).

In urban areas food consumption as a percentage of the total has fallen from 52.9% in 1992 to 35.7% in 2010. Transportation and communication has been the biggest gainer, rising from 2.5% to 14.7% in the same period thanks largely to the growing automobile industry and the explosion in mobile and internet usage.

8

52.9% 50.1%44.5%

38.2% 37.7% 36.3% 35.7%

14.1%13.5%

11.1%

10.1% 9.6% 10.4% 10.7%

2.5%3.1%

4.7%

6.5% 7.4% 7.0% 6.5%

2.6% 5.2%

5.9%9.3% 11.7% 13.6% 14.7%

8.8% 9.4%

11.5% 13.9%14.4% 13.3% 12.1%

6.0% 8.0%9.4% 11.5%

10.2% 9.8% 9.9%

4.7% 3.2% 4.5% 3.5% 3.3% 3.6% 3.7%

8.4% 7.4% 8.2% 7.1% 5.7% 6.0% 6.7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

92 95 98 01 04 07 10

Household Facility, Article & Service

Miscellaneous

Residence

Recreation, Edu & Cultural Service

Transport, Post & Telecommunication

Medicine & Medical Service

Clothing

Food

57.5% 58.6%53.4%

47.7% 47.2%43.1% 41.1%

8.0% 6.9%

6.2%

5.7% 5.5%6.0%

6.0%

5.6% 5.2%

5.2%

4.4% 4.1%4.6% 5.3%

3.7% 3.2%

4.3%

5.5% 6.0%6.5% 7.4%

1.9% 2.6%

3.8%

6.3% 8.8%10.2% 10.5%

6.6% 7.8%10.0%

11.1%11.3%

9.5% 8.4%

15.9% 13.9% 15.1% 16.0% 14.8% 17.8% 19.1%

0.8% 1.8% 2.1% 3.2% 2.2% 2.3% 2.1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

92 95 98 01 04 07 10

Miscellaneous

Residence

Recreation, Edu & Cultural Service

Transport, Post & Telecommunication

Medicine & Medical Service

Household Facility,Article & ServiceClothing

Food

Page 9: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Macro – Gini and Engel Gini coefficient,

2000–2009 Grey income estimates,

2008

Source: World Bank, Savills China Research Source: NBS, Credit Suisse, Savills China Research

Income inequality and unreported income are two barriers associated with gauging the size of China’s retail market.

China’s continues to exhibit a large wealth gap, partially explaining the success of luxury retailers and the relative

dearth of mid-end retailers to-date.

Critics also question the accuracy of estimates provided by international governing bodies such as the World Bank. A study by Professor Wang of China Reform Foundation in conjunction with Credit Suisse estimated incomes in the top ten percentile to be more than triple those reported, further skewing perceived income distribution.

9

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

South Africa Brazil

Mexico Argentina

Philippines Turkey

China (PRC)Russia

Thailand United States

Vietnam India

Indonesia Italy

Spain Greece

Switzerland Canada

Mongolia Egypt

Germany Finland Norway Sweden

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

0

40,000

80,000

120,000

160,000

200,000

Bottom 10%

10-20% 20-40% 40-60% 60-80% 80-90% Top 10%

RMB NBS data (LHS) Wang's data (LHS) Difference (RHS)

Page 10: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Macro – Inflation, interest rates and bank deposits CPI components, Jan 2006–Dec 2011

One-year lending and savings rates, Jan 2000–Jan 2012

Source: NBS, Savills China Research Source: NBS, Savills China Research

It is generally perceived that there is a negative correlation between interest rates and consumption levels. Interest rate hikes are designed to cool investment and consumption by encouraging individuals to save more money in the bank, borrow less from the bank and cool the stock market, real estate market and bond prices, resulting in a decline in wealth.

While a negative correlation between interest rates and consumption levels is commonly acknowledged, economists such as Michael Pettis have argued that the loss of wealth, rather than higher savings rates, curbs consumption and therefore spending. Following his reasoning, as Chinese savings are typically in the form of bank deposits, interest rate hikes allow for greater perceived wealth, and consequently, an increase not a decrease in consumption.

10

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11

Dec 2005 = 100 CPI Core Service Consumer Goods Food

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Lending (one-year) Savings (one-year)

Page 11: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Macro – Service sector % of GDP contributed by sector,

1980–2010 Workforce by sector,

1980–2010

Source: NBS, Savills China Research Source: NBS, Savills China Research

China’s industrial structure has evolved significantly over the last 30 years. In 1980, the tertiary industry accounted for

only 22% of the economy and 13% of the workforce, by 2010 the tertiary industry accounted for 43% of the economy and 35% of the workforce.

On average, over the last ten years, 7 million people have been added to the tertiary sector workforce. During the same period there has also been an increase in the urban workforce by 12 million people per year on average.

11

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Primary Secondary Tertiary

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Primary Secondary Tertiary

Page 12: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Demographics – Age pyramids Age structure,

2010 Age structure,

2050

Source: UNDP, Savills China Research Source: UNDP, Savills China Research

China has experienced a significant demographic gain over the past 50 years, with its dependency ratio – the ratio of dependents to those of working age – falling to an all-time low. As the one-child policy limits the working-age population and life expectancy increases, the nation is at risk of ageing rapidly before becoming rich.

Fortunately these concerns will be partially offset by continued urbanisation and modernisation of industry. This will translate to a larger urban workforce and greater economic efficiency.

By 2050, 25.6% of the population is expected to be aged over 65 years old, up from just 8.2% in 2010.

12

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

million persons

Male Female

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

million persons

Male Female

Page 13: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Demographics – Urbanisation China’s urbanisation levels,

1950–2050E Urban vs rural consumer expenditure

levels, 1980–2011

Source: UNDP, Savills China Research Source: NBS, Savills China Research

Higher levels of urbanisation lead not only to greater workforce productivity but also to higher national incomes and greater consumption levels. Urban households in 2011 were estimated to spend on average RMB15,161 per annum compared with just RMB5,221 per annum by rural households.

That said, the ratio between urban and rural consumption levels peaked in 2003 and fell rapidly in 2011. This could be a result of a number of factors, including higher remittances and increased food costs boosting farmers’ incomes.

13

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

million people Urban (LHS) Rural (LHS) Urbanistaion rate (RHS)

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

400%

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

RMB UH RH Ratio

Page 14: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Demographics – Domestic and international tourism Visitor arrivals by nationality,

1980–2011 Visitor expenditure by nationality,

1980–2011

Source: CNTA, Savills China Research Source: CNTA, Savills China Research

The rise of the modern Chinese consumer has been felt both in international luxury retail markets such as Paris, London, Hong Kong and Singapore, and on the domestic market.

Domestic travel has increased rapidly in recent years, growing from 750 million person times in 2000 to 2.1 billion person times in 2010. Alongside the rise in the number of tourists, spending by tourists is also increasing. In 2000 the average expenditure was RMB427. By 2010 this had increased to RMB598. While this still lags behind foreign tourist expenditure, the proportional impact is greater given the numbers.

14

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

billion person-timesmillion person-

times

Foreigner (LHS) HK, MC & TW (LHS) Domestic (RHS)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

RMB Domestic Foreigner HK Macau Taiwan

Page 15: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Retail market drivers

Consumer demand

Rising tourism

Emphasis on quality

Emerging middle class

Rising incomes

Status symbols

Urbanisation

Growing economy

Gifts

15

Page 16: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Macro – Consumer confidence MasterCard consumer confidence survey,

Dec 1996–Jun 2011 NBS consumer confidence survey,

Jan 2000–Dec 2011

Source: MasterCard, Savills China Research Source: NBS, Savills China Research

Consumer confidence surveys often provide misleading results and contradict each other.

The MasterCard survey is a forward-looking survey with 50 as neutral, covering five variables (employment, economy, income, stock market and quality of life). The NBS survey monitors a similar range of economic variables with 100 being neutral.

While the MasterCard survey indicates a relatively rosy picture in China at the moment with consumers much more confident than the rest of Asia, the NBS survey, more frequently monitored, indicates rapidly deteriorating satisfaction and confidence.

16

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

>100 = confidence Confidence Satisfaction Expectation

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Dec-96 Dec-98 Dec-00 Dec-02 Dec-04 Dec-06 Dec-08 Dec-10

>50 = confidence Asia Pac China Shanghai Beijing Guangzhou

Page 17: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Retailer analysis Retail formats 18 Department stores 19 Hypermarkets 21 Fashion brands 22 Fast-food 23 Hurun report 24 Brand evolution 26 Market drivers 27 Retail categories 30 Lease terms 32 Handover conditions 33

17

Page 18: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Retailer – Retail formats

Format Characteristics Emergence

High-street retail

State owned or individual landlords; typically low profile although retailers are now making more use of the high visibility –

Department store

Primarily state owned or domestic, although international (Asian) operators are making inroads into the market

First tier: 1980s (early) Second tier: 1980s (early)

Retail podium

Part of mixed-use developments, typically of office towers in downtown locations but increasingly in residential developments in suburban

locations

First tier: 1990s (early) Second tier: 1990s (late)

Shopping mall

Similar to retail podiums although larger in scale and held by one landlord; typically fully enclosed

First tier: 2000s (early) Second tier: 2000s (late)

Community retail

Large developments typically connected to the Metro network; typically fully enclosed although more F&B- and leisure-focused schemes in

mature city markets with more temperate climates are increasingly open plan

First tier: 2000s (late) Second tier: 2000s (late)

Outlet A relatively new concept; not as developed as in the US, outlet stores

are slowly emerging as car ownership continues to rise and consumers place value and quality on an even footing

First tier: 2000s (late) Second tier: 2000s (late)

18

Page 19: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Retailer – Department stores Main department store operators,

Q4/2011 Main department store operators,

Q4/2011

Source: Company websites, Savills China Research Source: Company websites, Savills China Research

The department store market in China, the primary format for large-scale retail for a number of years in the early 1980s, remains fragmented with no operator dominating the market. Most operators tend to focus on a particular region in China, although with foreign operators now competing on a national level some are increasingly looking for more national coverage.

Each region typically has one powerful player with an established long-term presence, attractive locations, strong recognition from customers and satisfactory business performance.

19

60

47

36

3431

26

22

21

2018 13

InzoneParkson New world Dashang GroupVan's IntimeGolden EagleWangfujingMOIBailianPACIFIC

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40Store #

Inzone Parkson New world Dashang GroupVan's Intime Golden Eagle WangfujingMOI Bailian PACIFIC

Page 20: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Retailer – Department stores

Department store

operator Region City level

No. of

stores Home city Positioning

Inzone YRD Second to third tier 60 Jinan Mid-high

Parkson National First to second tier 47 Malaysia Mid

HK New World National First to second tier 36 Hong Kong Mid-high

Dashang Group North Second to third tier 34 Dalian Mid

Van's National First to third tier 31 Dalian Mid

Intime YRD Second to third tier 26 Hangzhou Mid-high

Golden Eagle National First to third tier 22 Nanjing Mid-high

Wangfujing National First to second tier 21 Beijing Mid-high

MOI National First to third tier 20 Shenzhen Mid

Bailian YRD First to second tier 18 Shanghai Mid

PACIFIC National First to second tier 13 Taiwan Mid

20

Page 21: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Retailer – Hypermarkets Number of foreign hypermarket stores per

city, Q2/2011

Source: Company websites, Savills China Research

As food quality and prices become increasingly pressing concerns for China, hypermarkets are emerging as a dominant player in setting market standards. The larger their operations the stronger their bargaining position with suppliers, and hence, the lower the costs. They also have better supply chain management and quality control systems in place to ensure the quality of the products sold. In China’s leading cities hypermarkets, as in many western countries, are positioned in decentralised locations, closer to residential communities and with lower overhead costs. Downtown locations in top-tiered cities are occupied by domestic incumbents and smaller supermarket stores. In lower tier cities, however, hypermarkets such as Carrefour and Jusco are able to anchor centrally located stores where projects are larger, rents are cheaper and landlords want to stimulate footfall.

21

0

10

20

30

40

50

60Store # Carrefour Wal-mart Tesco Metro Ikea Macalline

Page 22: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Retailer – Fashion brands Number of stores per brand per city,

Q2/2011

Source: Company websites, Savills China Research

For many retailers entering the mainland China market it makes sense to start with Shanghai and Beijing. Both cities have a large population, relatively high average disposable incomes and some of the best developed and managed retail premises. It is no surprise, therefore, that of the retailers surveyed their presence in these two cities was clearly much more significant than in any other city. On average the luxury retailer surveyed had four to five stores in Shanghai and Beijing, mid- to high-end fashion retailers had 10 to 11 and fast fashion had nine to ten stores.

Established retailers are now faced with the question of where to go next. Leading luxury brands have already established a presence in most first- and second-tier cities and are continuing to expand aggressively. Mid- to high-end brands favoured Hangzhou and Chengdu the most. Fast-fashion retailers, although late to the China market, are some of the most aggressive out of the three, eager to establish market share before the full force of the emerging middle class is felt in China.

22

0

2

4

6

8

10

12Store # Luxury fashion Mid to high fashion Fast fashion

Page 23: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Retailer – Fast-food brands Urban population per fast-food store1,

Q2/2011

Source: Company websites, Savills China Research

A survey of the leading the international fast-food chains in China looks to gauge the market penetration of foreign F&B brands and market size.

Combined, KFC, McDonald’s and Pizza Hut had approximately 400 stores in both Shanghai and Beijing by the end of 2011, far more than any other city in China. Store numbers fall to 250 in Shenzhen, 180 in Guangzhou and between 50 and 150 in other second-tier cities, with the exception of Kunming.

Fast-food stores have already been widely accepted by Chinese consumers. Operators and are now focusing on maintaining the performance of existing stores in response to increased competition from new entrants and competing F&B formats. Future opportunities for operators primarily lie in lower tier cities and suburban developments in leading cities.

23

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

Population per store

Page 24: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Retailer – Hurun, the super wealthy Number of US$ billionaires by nationality,

March 2011 Individuals with more than RMB100 million,

2010

Source: Forbes, Savills Research China Source: Hurun Report, Savills Research China

China’s economic miracle has generated great wealth for the upper echelons of society.

China now has the second largest number of US$ billionaires in the world after the US, according to the Forbes report.

The Hurun report, a Chinese equivalent, puts the figure of “known” US$ billionaires in China at close to 271 and the

number of “hidden” US$ billionaires at close to 300 individuals. If the Hurun report is correct this would mean that there are more Chinese US$ billionaires than American.

24

412

115

1015552

3836

323026

313 United StatesChinaRussiaIndiaGermanyTurkeyHong KongUnited KingdomBrazilJapanOther

9,400

7,300

3,810

3,160

2,5902,130

26,610BeijingShanghaiGuangzhouShenzhenHangzhouWenzhouOther

Page 25: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Retailer – Hurun, best of the best

Overall luxury brand Louis Vuitton Jewellery Cartier Overall watch Patek Philippe Fashion label Giorgio Armani Accessory Hermès Skincare Estee Lauder Furniture Markor Home Luxury kitchen appliance Miele Performance car Jaguar XK Luxury yacht brand Azimut International private bank UBS Foreign personal banking HSBC Domestic private bank China Merchants Bank Private club in China Chang'An Club Golf club Mission Hills Luxury real estate brand Star River Laptop computer Apple Luxury hotel brand Shangri-La Luxury boutique hotel Park Hyatt Shanghai International luxury destination France Asia luxury destination Japan

Overall brand Hermès Jewellery Piaget Luxury watch Montblanc Luxury watch IWC Sports watch Omega – Speedmaster Super luxury car Ferrari 599 Furniture Markor Home Luxury kitchen appliance Gaggenau International luxury

destination Maldives

Luxury hotel brand The Ritz-Carlton Ladies watch Omega – Ladymatic Overall luxury hotel brand Waldorf

Hurun best of the best star performers, 2011 Hurun best of the best awards, 2011

Between April and November 2010 the Hurun Report surveyed 401 mainland Chinese millionaires, each with assets of at least RMB10 million, among them 45 people with assets of at least RMB100 million. For the seventh year running, surveys were carried out on a one-on-one basis, making this the largest and most concise survey of its kind in China.

25

Page 26: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Retailer – Brand evolution

Foreign fashion brands, particularly low- to mid-end fashion brands from Hong Kong, Taiwan and southeast Asia, started to enter China in the early 1990s

Fast-food chains, such as KFC and McDonald’s, opened their first stores in the first half of the 1990s Foreign hypermarket chains entered the market in the mid-1990s Mid- to high-end fashion brands and mid-end F&B, mainly from the US, entered China after 2000 Retailers which previously only manufactured products in China, started to view China as a market in

itself in the mid-2000s High-street and fast-fashion retailers started to make a decisive push into the China market after

2005. This trend is expected to continue to gain pace in the coming years Going forward, most categories of retailers are already present in China. The one thing lacking is a

strong domestic brand presence which can compete at the same level as the international brands In the future, an expansion of operations and broadening of product and services selection, as well as

the consolidation of smaller stores into larger flagship stores is expected

1990–2000 Mass market and fast-food

• 1989 KFC • 1993 Giordano • 1994 McDonald's • 1996 Carrefour • 2000 Starbucks

2000–2005 Mid- and high-end fashion

• 2001 Louis Vuitton • 2001 Gucci • 2003 Swarovski

2005–2011 Fast-fashion retailers

• 2007 H&M • 2008 M&S • 2010 Gap

2012 onwards Domestic retailers? Consolidation of stores?

26

Page 27: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Retailer – Luxury market drivers

• Luxury Brands

• Status symbols • Gifts • Emergence of the

super-rich class • Early-starter

advantages

• Growing saturation in

first-tier cities • Difficulty in finding

suitable premises/locations in lower tier cities

• Lower recognition in low-tier cities

• Dilution of brand prestige

27

Page 28: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Retailer – Mid-range market drivers • Emerging middle class • Urbanisation • Rising incomes • Emphasis on improving

quality and lifestyle over purely cost

• Improvement in product offerings

• Consumer disparity in

different areas • Franchise issues for

some early entrants • Lower recognition in

low-tier cities

28

Page 29: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Retailer – Fast-fashion market drivers

• Price advantages for a

wide range of consumers

• Urbanisation • Rising incomes

• Consumer disparity in

different areas • Lower recognition in

low-tier cities • Difficulty in finding

suitable locations in lower tier cities

29

Page 30: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Retailer – F&B categories

Fast-food (150–500 sq m) • Saturation in urban areas

of first-tier cities • Still a popular place for

gatherings

Kiosk (5–20 sq m) • Providing juices, desserts,

specialty foods… • Some providing seats • Some also opening casual

dining stores ()

Casual (150–500 sq m) • Sushi, noodles, desserts,

simple western... • Between fast-food and

middle dining

Mid-sized (500–800 sq m) • Various types, normally

mid- or mid- to high-end • Per sitting per capita

consumption ~RMB60–150

Large-sized (>1,000 sq m) • Fine dining • Chinese banquets • Hot pots • Also some mass-market,

targeted and very popular

30

Page 31: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Retailer – Entertainment categories

Cinema (4,000–6,000 sq m) • Fast growing • Supported by strong box

office

KTV (500–1,000 sq m) • Popular among the 15–50

age group all over the country

• Group activity • Convenience

Gym (2,000–5,000 sq m) • Especially welcomed by

white collars • Still not widely utilised • Preference to use

residence clubhouses

Club (1000–2500 sq m) • Mostly positioned high,

with targeted consumer group

• Socialising • Business entertaining

Bookshop (500–800 sq m) • Struggling with online

sellers • Weaker ability to take high

rents

Skating rink (~2,000 sq m) • Relatively high operation

costs • A favourite activity for

young people

31

Page 32: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Retailer – Lease terms

GLA (sq m)

Lease period (years)

Rent-free/fit-out period (months)

Sample tenants

Fashion (specialty) 40–150 2–3 1–2 Calvin Klein, Guess, Nautica

Mini-anchor tenants 1,000–3,000 5–10 4–6 I.T. flagship store, Department store >10,000 15–20 6–8 Parkson

Non-F&B retailers

F&B retailers GLA

(sq m) Lease period

(years) Rent-free/fit-out period (months)

Sample tenants

Small-sized F&B 150–500 3–5 2–3 Fast-food, Japanese restaurants

Mid-sized F&B 500–800 6–10 3–4 Chinese fine dining Large-sized F&B > 1,000 8–10 3–4 Local restaurants

32

Page 33: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Retailer – Handover conditions

Bare-shell/wet-box structure Central air-conditioning system and exhaust holes Smoke detector and fire fighting equipment (including sprinklers) Store window display and glass/shutter door Phone system, POS system and other appropriate telecommunication systems Water, electricity and gas conduits (for F&B, beauty businesses)

33

Page 34: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Retail Real Estate Retail types 35 Open vs enclosed plan 36 Retail development 37 Retail dashboard 38 Prime benchmark 39 Rent index 40 Rents by city 41 Investment 42 Cap value and yields 43 Key trends 44 Key difficulties 47

34

Page 35: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Retail types

Department store (百货商场)

Shopping mall (购物中心)

High-street retail (街铺)

Community shopping centre

(社区购物中心)

Outlet (奥特莱斯)

Retail podium (商业裙楼)

Main types

Sub-categories

35

Page 36: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Open vs enclosed plan

Enclosed plan • Still the mainstream format for retail projects in most

cities • Traditional design • Often sterile environments • Single structures, normally four to ten storeys • Easier environmental control and management • Better tenant visibility

Open plan • Pleasant natural environment • Multiple small low-rise buildings (two to four storeys) • Flexibility of store design/image/display • In keeping with surrounding architecture • Difficulties in management • Open to the elements

36

Page 37: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Retail development Land acquisition (-4 to 5 years)

•Land use rights

Planning and design (-3 to -4 or 5 years)

•Land use permits/planning permits/construction permits

Construction (0 to -3 years)

Soft and grand opening (0 years)

Tenant repositioning (2 to 3 years)

•Proportion of category/level

Tenant fit-out (-1 to -5 months) although in some cases up to a year

Pre leasing (0 to -2 years)

Years

pre

- an

d p

ost-

so

ft o

pen

ing

-5

-3

-4

-1

-2

+1

0

+3

+2

+4

Leasing and management (0 years onwards)

•Tenant coordination •Marketing and promotion

37

Page 38: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

The retail market at a glance…

* Based on GLA and the top five performing retail centres

in the city, excluding management fees

Shanghai Beijing Guangzhou Shenzhen

Stock million sq m 5.0 4.7 3.0 1.5

Prime occupancy rate

% 97 90 90 97

Rents (prime 5)* RMB per sq m

per month 2,000 1,385 2,040 1,750

2011 rental growth

% 7.0 10.0 2.0 3.2

Rent cycle – Early upswing Early upswing Late upswing Late upswing

Gross revisionary yield

% 5.0–6.0 6.0–7.0 6.5–7.5 6.5–7.5

2012 supply as a % of 2011 stock

% 15.5 31.3 20.0 28.3

38

Page 39: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Rents – Prime benchmark Average rents (prime 5)*,

Q2/2008–Q4/2011 Cost comparison (prime 5),

Q4/2011

* Based on GLA and the top five performing retail centres in the city, excluding management fees Source: Savills China Research

The costs of renting, especially the best premises, are still relatively low in the mainland compared with regional levels in mature cities.

The average cost (base rent, management fee and tax) of the five best projects in first-tier cities of mainland China is approximately 70% lower than Hong Kong, 40% lower than Singapore and Taiwan, and 20% lower than Tokyo (although Guangzhou is roughly on par with Tokyo).

Obviously, premises are only part of the equation for retailers, with taxes (import, VAT, etc), wages, management, and logistics also playing a significant role in gauging the desirability of opening stores.

39

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200 USD psm pmth net

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2008 2009 2010 2011

RMB psm pmth Shanghai Beijing Guangzhou Shenzhen

Page 40: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Rents – Index Property cycle,

Q4/2011 Rental indices,

Q1/2008–Q4/2011

Source: Savills China Research

Mainland markets were less affected by the 2008 GFC when compared with other regional centres. This was due primarily to the stimulus package which arrested the economic slowdown and the resilience of the employment market for white collar workers.

Rental growth in prime locations has slowed in recent quarters as new supply increases competition between landlords and offers retailers more options.

40

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

08 09 10 11

Q1/2008=100 Beijing Shanghai Hong Kong Tokyo SydneyHong KongSingapore

Guangzhou

ShenzhenBeijing

Kuala Lumpur

Early upswing

TokyoOsakaSeoul

Ho Chih Ming City

Early downswing

Late downswing

Late upswing

TaipeiShanghaiSydney

Hanoi

Page 41: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Rents – Area comparison Annual rental growth,

2011 Rental ranges of the main retail areas,

2011

Source: Savills China Research Source: Savills China Research

Positive rental growth was recorded in all markets monitored in 2011, although the extent by which they increased varied significantly.

Beijing, the cheapest retail rental market among the first-tier cities, recorded the strongest growth in 2011 despite supply pressure as retailers recorded robust turnover. Leading second-tier cities also recorded notable growth as a result of increasing demand from international retailers looking to expand out of the first-tier cities.

41

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%

Shanghai

Beijing

Guangzhou

Shenzhen

Chengdu

Tianjin

Hangzhou 0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000RMB psm pmth

Beijing Guangzhou Shanghai Shenzhen Chengdu Hangzhou Tianjin

Page 42: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Investment Retail investment by city,

Q1/2008–Q4/2011 Investment by property type,

Q1/2008– Q4/2011

Source: RCA, Savills China Research Source: RCA, Savills China Research

The retail market has seen growing interest from investors as yields and internal rates of return in traditional stabilised office and residential developments have been compressed over the last two years. Investors looking for add-value, development or lease risk see the retail market as offering significant upside if executed correctly, while more opportunities have been presented as inexperienced domestic developers fail to maximise the potential of existing developments.

At the same it is easier to sell the long-term growth story behind the acquisition of a retail development. China’s middle class and undeveloped consumer industry are likely to develop as the government targets an increase in domestic consumption.

42

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Q1

08

Q2

08

Q3

08

Q4

08

Q1

09

Q2

09

Q3

09

Q4

09

Q1

10

Q2

10

Q3

10

Q4

10

Q1

11

Q2

11

Q3

11

Q4

11

US$ billion Apartment Hotel Industrial Office Retail

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Q1

08

Q2

08

Q3

08

Q4

08

Q1

09

Q2

09

Q3

09

Q4

09

Q1

10

Q2

10

Q3

10

Q4

10

Q1

11

Q2

11

Q3

11

Q4

11

US$ billion Shanghai Beijing Guangzhou & Shenzhen Other cities

Page 43: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Capital value and yield/cap rates

Projects in mature areas are highly sought-after but stock is extremely limited in first-tier cities and leading second-tier cities.

Main investment players include overseas retail funds, global retailers, leading domestic retailers and domestic developers.

Retail en-bloc transactions usually involve a large amount of capital and skilled management experience, keeping away private buyers or small to medium enterprises.

Consensus on yields is hard to come by as most investments involve add-value rather than stabilised projects.

Prior to repositioning: Entry cap rates (ie, NOI yield): First tier: 3.0%–3.5%; second tier: 3.5%–4.5%

After repositioning: Stabilised cap rates (after two years): First tier: 4.5%–5.5%; second tier: 5.5%–

6.5%

43

Page 44: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Significant trends The retail market has always been the most dynamic sector of the real estate industry, reacting to changes in the property market, retailer requirements, as well as consumer and architectural trends. In China this is no different and recent trends include:

Project development and management Shopping malls are now the dominant retail format in first-tier cities; in second- and lower tier

cities there is still fierce competition between shopping malls and department stores for dominance

A handful of leading domestic developers are becoming increasingly sophisticated and competing with international developers, working closer with retailers, branding malls, and understanding tenant mixes and consumer opinion and trends

Many projects are still developed by inexperienced domestic developers which are likely to underperform

The China market remains fragmented with local developers typically fashioning little fiefdoms of market dominance

First-tier cities focus on the development of decentralised projects while second-tier cities focus on the development of prime areas and new CBDs

Investment/development companies are acquiring underperforming, centrally located retail assets in first-tier cities to renovate and add value

44

Page 45: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Significant trends (cont.) Retailers Retailers, especially high end, are looking to acquire high-street premises for flagship

stores, especially in first-tier cities Store sizes are increasing as retailers consolidate premises and increase product

selection Leisure and entertainment retailers are more important as retail developments’ scale

and locations require more diversified tenant mixes to generate footfall There is increased competition from local retailers, although they are still under-

represented by international norms Competition from online retail sales from leading websites including Yihaodian (一号

店), Taobao (淘宝), 360 Buy (京东网) and Amazon (亚马逊) present concern Established retailers are buying back franchises, but new entrants are still adopting

franchises apart from flagship stores in first-tier cities Retailers are adopting made in US and Europe products which are highly valued by

Chinese consumers There is an increasing number of international retailers entering the China market

45

Page 46: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Significant trends (cont.)

Consumers More sophisticated consumers are harder to please, demanding more consumer

rights and after sales services Brand loyalty/recognition is becoming stronger as brands establish a long-term

presence and marketing campaigns gain traction Word-of-mouth still remains one of the most important ways for retailers to reach out

to consumers, although the internet is playing a more important role in providing research and pricing expectations

The retail-therapy mentality is emerging in Chinese consumers, especially in first-tier cities, as disposable incomes continue to rise

Made in the US and Europe brands are highly valued The overseas buying trend is still a significant obstacle for retailers; outbound tourism

numbers increase exposure to international retail markets and buying opportunities. At the same time as product selection and quality improves, the gap between product offerings should narrow

46

Page 47: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Key difficulties for developers and retailers Knowing the local market – consumer tastes/what brands will work well Regional differences Constantly changing

Knowing your place in the local market – unique strengths, differentiation Access to data Useful and meaningful data Reliability of this data

Developers Understanding the legal system and regulatory environment Rule of law – interpretation of regulations Corruption

Finding suitable locations Finding a suitable and reliable joint venture partner

Retailers Containing overheads Registration Import tariffs and taxes Short leases Building reputations for retailers who are not internationally established

47

Page 48: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

City Overview Beijing 50 Guangzhou 51 Shanghai 52 Shenzhen 53 Chengdu 54 Chongqing 55 Dalian 56 Hangzhou 57 Nanjing 58 Ningbo 59 Qingdao 60 Shenyang 61 Suzhou 62 Tianjin 63 Wuhan 64 Wuxi 65 Xiamen 66 Xi’an 67

48

Page 49: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

China tier cities

49

Page 50: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Drivers Main industries

Prime retail malls Major retail streets /

areas

Beijing

Political centre Headquarter economy

(state-owned enterprises)

Policy support Skilled workforce Largest grouping of

high net worth individuals

Electronics Communications Wholesale and retail Finance IT

The Mall at Oriental China World

Shopping Mall Beijing APM Joy City Park Life

Wangfujing Xidan Street Sanlitun Qianmen

(2010 data) Units Value YoY

growth

Metro population million 19.6 11.7% Area sq km 16,411 – GDP RMB billion 1,411.4 10.2% GDP per capita RMB 75,943 7.1% Foreign direct investment US$ billion 8.4 2.1% Disposable income RMB 29,073 8.7% Expenditure per capita RMB 19,934 11.4%

50

Page 51: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Drivers Main industries

Prime retail malls Major retail streets /

areas

Guangzhou

Transport hub Business centre of

south China Large population Special economic

zones

Trade Logistics Manufacturing Processing Software

Teemall Grandview Plaza China Plaza Laperle City Sky Galleria Taikoo Hui

Beijing Road Shangxia Jiu

pedestrian street

(2010 data) Units Value YoY

growth

Metro population million 8.06 1.5% Area sq km 7,434 - GDP RMB billion 1,074.8 13.2% GDP per capita RMB 87,458 - Foreign direct investment US$ billion 5.0 31.4% Disposable income RMB 30,659 11.0% Expenditure per capita RMB 25,012 9.6%

51

Page 52: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Drivers Main industries

Prime retail malls Major retail streets /

areas

Shanghai

Heading up China’s largest economic region

China headquarters for multinational corporations

Skilled workforce Large population Business environment Consumer market

Financial services Retail and wholesale Real estate

Plaza 66 Westgate Mall Raffles City CITIC Square Grand Gateway

Nanjing Road (East) Huaihai Road

(Middle) Xujiahui

(2010 data) Units Value YoY

growth

Metro population million 23.0 5.0% Area sq km 6,340 - GDP RMB billion 1,716.6 10.3% GDP per capita RMB 76,074 - Foreign direct investment US$ billion 15.3 15.1% Disposable income RMB 31,838 10.4% Expenditure per capita RMB 23,200 10.5%

52

Page 53: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Drivers Main industries

Prime retail malls Major retail streets /

areas

Shenzhen

Special economic zone Gateway to mainland

China Young workforce Migrant city Electronics boom Shenzhen stock

exchange

Telecommunications Computer

manufacturing Electronics

Shenzhen MixC KK Mall Coco Park Yitian Holiday Plaza Coastal City

Luohu CBD Futian CBD Houhai (Nanshan

CBD) Huaqiangbei Overseas Chinese

Town (OCT)

(2010 data) Units Value YoY

growth

Metro population million 10.4 4.2% Area sq km 1,992 - GDP RMB billion 958.2 12.2% GDP per capita RMB 94,296 - Foreign direct investment US$ billion 5.7 58.9% Disposable income RMB 32,381 10.7% Expenditure per capita RMB 22,807 5.9%

53

Page 54: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Drivers Main industries

Prime retail malls Major retail streets /

areas

Chengdu

Emerging R&D hub 133 to 500

multinational corporations present with more coming

Major transport hub in the western region

Key retail market in western China

Electronics IT Manufacturing Finance

Yanlord Plaza Renhe Spring Plaza Galleria Shopping

Center MixC

Chunxi Road Yanshikou

(2010 data) Units Value YoY

growth

Metro population million 11.5 0.8% Area sq km 12,121 - GDP RMB billion 555.1 15.0% GDP per capita RMB 41,253 - Foreign direct investment US$ billion 5.0 197.9% Disposable income RMB 20,835 18.5% Expenditure per capita RMB 15,511 18.0%

54

Page 55: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Drivers Main industries

Prime retail malls Major retail streets /

areas

Chongqing

Only municipality in western China and the world’s largest municipality by population and area

Transportation hub – biggest inland river port

Abundant natural resources

Automotives, heavy industries

Chemicals Consumer goods and

processed foods (domestic)

Major refining centre Vibrant defense sector

Metropolitan Plaza ASE Central Square Paradise Walk Times Square Guotai Plaza

Jiefangbei Guanyinqiao Nanping Yanjiaping

(2010 data) Units Value YoY

growth

Metro population million 28.8 0.9% Area sq km 82,826 - GDP RMB billion 792.6 17.1% GDP per capita RMB 27,596 - Foreign direct investment US$ billion 6.3 65.6% Disposable income RMB 17,532 11.3% Expenditure per capita RMB 13,335 9.8%

55

Page 56: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Drivers Main industries

Prime retail malls Major retail streets /

areas

Dalian

Important business process outsourcing location

Largest airport in northeastern China

Third largest port in China

Second largest futures exchange in China

Electronics/hi-tech Tourism Major shipbuilding

hub Machinery

manufacturing Petrochemicals and

oil refining

Tianxing Roosevelt Center

Times Square Peace Plaza Parkland Eton Place

Renmin Road Qingniwa Xian Road

(2010 data) Units Value YoY

growth

Metro population million 5.86 0.3% Area sq km 12,574 - GDP RMB billion 515.8 15.2% GDP per capita RMB 77,704 - Foreign direct investment US$ billion 5.3 - Disposable income RMB 21,293 12.0% Expenditure per capita RMB 16,580 8.1%

56

Page 57: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Drivers Main industries

Prime retail malls Major retail streets /

areas

Hangzhou

Strong retail market Thriving residential

market, equivalent to Shanghai in price

Skilled labour force Hot-spot to live, shop

and work

Tourism Light industry Textiles IT

MixC Hangzhou Euro Plaza Mingde Plaza

Wulin Qianjiang New City Hubin

(2010 data) Units Value YoY

growth

Metro population million 6.9 0.8% Area sq km 16,596 - GDP RMB billion 594.9 12.0% GDP per capita RMB 86,691 - Foreign direct investment US$ billion 7.7 10.7% Disposable income RMB 30,034 14.8% Expenditure per capita RMB 20,219 12.6%

57

Page 58: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Drivers Main industries

Prime retail malls Major retail streets /

areas

Nanjing

Transportation hub in eastern China

Nation's capital prior to 1949 – significant political attention

National centre for education, research and tourism

Electronics Healthcare Petrochemicals Iron and steel

Deji Plaza Nanjing Aqua City

Xinjiekou Shanxi Road –

Gulou Guangzhou Road–

Zhujiang Road Hexi New Town Confucius Temple

(2010 data) Units Value YoY

growth

Metro population million 6.3 0.8% Area sq km 6,582 - GDP RMB billion 513.1 13.1% GDP per capita RMB 65,273 - Foreign direct investment US$ billion 4.8 4.8% Disposable income RMB 31,838 10.4% Expenditure per capita RMB 18,156 14.4%

58

Page 59: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Drivers Main industries

Prime retail malls Major retail streets /

areas

Ningbo

Flow-over effect from Shanghai’s economy

Fourth largest port in China

Active domestic private economy (small to medium enterprises)

Entrepreneurial spirit

Electrical products Textiles Food Industrial tools

Tianyi Square Heyi Plaza Wanda Plaza

Tianyi Square

(2010 data) Units Value YoY

growth

Metro population million 5.7 5.4% Area sq km 9,817 - GDP RMB billion 516.3 12.4% GDP per capita RMB 90,175 - Foreign direct investment US$ billion 4.1 18.2% Disposable income RMB 30,166 10.8% Expenditure per capita RMB 19,420 10.2%

59

Page 60: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Drivers Main industries

Prime retail malls Major retail streets /

areas

Qingdao

Fifth largest port in China, ninth in the world

Key target for Japanese and Korean investors (proximity)

Variety of mineral deposits

Home to local champions: Haier, Tsingtao…

Maritime engineering Electronics

manufacturing Energy production Tourism

Hisense Plaza Marina City Jusco

Hongkong Middle Road

Taidong area Zhongshan Road

belt Shandong Road belt

(2010 data) Units Value YoY

growth

Metro population million 7.64 0.9% Area sq km 10,978 - GDP RMB billion 566.6 12.9% GDP per capita RMB 65,812 - Foreign direct investment US$ billion 2.8 52.8% Disposable income RMB 24,998 11.8% Expenditure per capita RMB 17,531 9.0%

60

Page 61: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Drivers Main industries

Prime retail malls Major retail streets /

areas

Shenyang

Trying to reorient the economy towards the services and IT sectors

Many carmakers and related industries, such as Michelin

Heavy industry, (aerospace, machine tools, automotive, heavy equipment and defence)

Software Electronics

Charter Shopping Centre

Palace 66 Joy City MixC City

Golden Corridor Taiyuan Street Zhongjie Street Beihang

(2010 data) Units Value YoY

growth

Metro population million 7.2 0.4% Area sq km 12,980 - GDP RMB billion 501.8 14.1% GDP per capita RMB 62,357 - Foreign direct investment US$ billion 8.1 - Disposable income RMB 20,541 11.2% Expenditure per capita RMB 19,961 5.3%

61

Page 62: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Drivers Main industries

Prime retail malls Major retail streets /

areas

Suzhou

Second largest industrial city in the YRD

Suzhou Industrial Park – home to 40 Fortune 500 companies

Major foreign direct investment recipient

Preferential policies Links Shanghai to

Nanjing

Tourism Electronics, IT,

electrical machinery and household electrical appliances

Biotechnology and medicine

Suzhou In City Suzhou Times

Square

Guanqian Street Jinji Lake Nanmen

(2010 data) Units Value YoY

growth

Metro population million 6.4 0.7% Area sq km 8,488 - GDP RMB billion 922.9 13.3% GDP per capita RMB 93,043 - Foreign direct investment US$ billion 16.9 - Disposable income RMB 29,219 7.5% Expenditure per capita RMB 17,879 4.4%

62

Page 63: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Drivers Main industries

Prime retail malls Major retail streets /

areas

Tianjin

Pilot reforms in the financial sector

Central government support

Geothermal energy Largest port in north

China Third largest city in

China

Petrochemical industry, biotechnology and medicine

Metallurgy Automobile Renewable energy

equipment

Maigo Heping Wanda

Plaza Tianjin Joy City

Nanjing Road Xiaobailou Youyi Road Binjiang Road Heping Road

(2010 data) Units Value YoY

growth

Metro population million 13.0 5.8% Area sq km 11,760 - GDP RMB billion 922.4 17.4% GDP per capita RMB 72,994 - Foreign direct investment US$ billion 15.3 10.5% Disposable income RMB 24,293 13.5% Expenditure per capita RMB 16,561 11.9%

63

Page 64: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Drivers Main industries

Prime retail malls Major retail streets /

areas

Wuhan

Scientific and educational hub of central China

Primary investors are from Japan, France and Hong Kong

Retail consumption accounted for half of GDP in 2009

Automobile and machinery manufacturing

Iron and steel industry

Logistics Tobacco Pharmaceuticals

Wuhan International Plaza

Wuhan Shopping Mall

Chicony Plaza

Hangkong Road Jianghan Road Zhongnan Road China Optical Valley Xudong Avenue Jiedaokou

(2010 data) Units Value YoY

growth

Metro population million 8.4 0.1% Area sq km 8,494 - GDP RMB billion 556.6 14.7% GDP per capita RMB - - Foreign direct investment US$ billion - - Disposable income RMB 20,806 13.2% Expenditure per capita RMB 14,490 14.0%

64

Page 65: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Drivers Main industries

Prime retail malls Major retail streets /

areas

Wuxi

State-level micro-electronic hi-tech industrial base

Private enterprises Attempt to develop

the largest solar city in China

Machinery and metallurgy

Light equipment Electronics Textiles – silk-

producing centre

Wuxi Commercial Building

Beicheng Tian Jie Baoli Plaza

Zhongshan Road CBD Dongan Road Guangyi Road

(2010 data) Units Value YoY

growth

Metro population million 4.7 0.2% Area sq km 4,788 - GDP RMB billion 579.3 13.2% GDP per capita RMB 92,167 - Foreign direct investment US$ billion 4.8 - Disposable income RMB 27,750 10.9% Expenditure per capita RMB 17,003 8.9%

65

Page 66: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Drivers Main industries

Prime retail malls Major retail streets /

areas

Xiamen

Developing environmentally friendly industries

Strong ties with Taiwan Important investment

capital from Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan

Tourism Electronics Machinery Chemicals Fishing

SM City Plaza World Trade Center

Zhongshan Road Fushan

(2010 data) Units Value YoY

growth

Metro population million 3.5 40% Area sq km 1,573 - GDP RMB billion 206 15.1% GDP per capita RMB - - Foreign direct investment US$ billion 1.6 20.4% Disposable income RMB 29,253 12.0% Expenditure per capita RMB 19,961 11.0%

66

Page 67: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Drivers Main industries

Prime retail malls Major retail streets /

areas

Xi’an

Xi'an National Civil Industrial Base

Telecommunications – Huawei, ZTE, CATT, NEC, Fujitsu and Siemens

Low-cost, well-educated populace

Telecommunications Business process

outsourcing Tourism Aerospace Education Equipment

manufacturing

Century Ginwa department store

Zhongda International

Bell Tower Xiaozhai Hi-tech Industrial

Development Zone

(2010 data) Units Value YoY

growth

Metro population million 7.8 1.2% Area sq km 10,108 - GDP RMB billion 324.2 14.5% GDP per capita RMB 38,343 - Foreign direct investment US$ billion 1.2 99.4% Disposable income RMB 18,404 -3% Expenditure per capita RMB 14,160 0%

67

Page 68: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Notes page

68

Page 69: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Notes page

69

Page 70: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Notes page

• This document is prepared by Savills for information only. While reasonable care has been exercised in preparing this document, it is subject to change and these particulars do not constitute, nor constitute part of, an offer or contract; interested parties should not rely on the statements or representations of fact but must satisfy themselves by inspection or otherwise as to the accuracy. No person in the employment of the agent or the agent's principal has any authority to make any representations or warranties whatsoever in relation to these particulars and Savills cannot be held responsible for any liability whatsoever or for any loss howsoever arising from or in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this document.

70

Page 71: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected

Savills China

ChinaAlbert LauHead & Managing Director of Savills ChinaHead of Investment and Sales, Savills ChinaEmail: [email protected]: (8621) 6391 6696 20/F, Shanghai Central Plaza, 381 Huaihai Middle Road, Luwan District,Shanghai 200020, PRC

Central ChinaSiu Wing ChuDeputy Managing Director of Savills ShanghaiHead of Retail ChinaEmail: [email protected]: (8621) 6391 668920/F, Shanghai Central Plaza, 381 Huaihai Middle Road, Luwan District,Shanghai 200020, PRC

Northern ChinaBilly ChauManaging Director of Northern ChinaEmail: [email protected]: (8610) 5925 2000Unit 1, 21/F, East Tower, Twin Towers,B-12 Jianguomenwai Avenue, Chaoyang,Beijing 100022, PRC

Northern ChinaDuke ZhenDirector of Retail Consultancy, Beijing Email: [email protected]: (8610) 5925 2031Unit 1, 21/F, East Tower, Twin Towers,B-12 Jianguomenwai Avenue, Chaoyang,Beijing 100022, PRC

Northern ChinaJoanna LowDirector of Retail Leasing, BeijingEmail: [email protected]: (8610) 5925 2035Unit 1, 21/F, East Tower, Twin Towers,B-12 Jianguomenwai Avenue, Chaoyang,Beijing 100022, PRC

Southern ChinaBenny KwokDirector of Retail, Southern China Email: [email protected]: (8620) 3892 7174Unit A, 5/F, Anlian Plaza, 4018 Jintian Road, Futian District, Shenzhen 518026, PRC

Southern ChinaWoody LamManaging Director of Southern ChinaEmail: [email protected]: (8620) 3892 7108Room 906, R & F Centre, No. 10 Huaxia Road, Zhujiang New Town,Guangzhou 510623, PRC

Western ChinaBacky FungHead of Agency and Investment, ChengduEmail: [email protected]: (8628) 8658 7841Room 2106 Yanlord Landmark Square No.#1 Section 2, Renmin South Road, Jinjing District, Chengdu 610016, PRC

Western ChinaEric WoDeputy Managing Director of Western ChinaEmail: [email protected]: (8628) 8658 7828Room 2106 Yanlord Landmark Square No.#1 Section 2, Renmin South Road, Jinjing District, Chengdu 610016, PRC

China Research and PublicationsJames MacdonaldEmail: [email protected]: (8621) 6391 668820/F, Shanghai Central Plaza, 381 Huaihai Middle Road, Luwan District, Shanghai 200020, PRC

Page 72: Savills Chinapdf.savills.asia/asia-pacific-research/featured-research/china-retail... · Individuals typically save as much as they can to prepare themselves for large unexpected