Voting IntentionTracking Poll

May 2010

Methodology and Weighting

RED C interviewed a random sample of 1001 adults aged 18+ by telephone between the 24th & 26th May 2010.

A random digit dial (RDD) method is used to ensure a random selection process of households to be included – this also ensures that ex-directory households are covered.

Half of the sample are interviewed using an RDD landline sample, with the other half conducted using an RDD mobile phone sample, this ensures 98% coverage of the population reaching landline only households, mobile only households and those with both a landline and a mobile.

Interviews were conducted across the country and the results weighted to the profile of all adults. A further past vote weighting is included that takes the current recall for how people voted at the last election, compares this to the actual results, and weights the data to halfway between the two.

Finally vote intention results are based on those who will actually go and vote, using a 10 point scale, where 1 is not at all likely and 10 is very likely, those rating 5 to 10 are included as being those who will actually go and vote.

SUNDAY BUSINESS POST – 30th May 2010 - Opinion Poll

 Labour retain gains, while Fine Gael fall back

 

This month’s RED C/Sunday Business Post poll will have been eagerly anticipated by Labour supporters, curious to see to what extent the party could hold on to the dramatic gains in support seen last month. The news is good for them, as while support has fallen back by 2% this month, to leave the party securing 22% of the first preference vote, this means they are still 5% ahead of where the party was before last month’s poll. Previous leaps in support, seen for the party in 2008 and 2009, also saw Labour retain around 5% of the gain. This suggests Labour may now be looking at consolidating support in the low 20’s for the foreseeable future.

The retention of support seen for Labour is however bad news for Fine Gael, who appear to be the party that has suffered as a result. Fine Gael already lost 2% support when Labour made the initial gains last month, but it appears that the upward trend for Labour has persuaded more Fine Gael supporters to jump ship this month. Fine Gael support drops by a further 3% this month, leaving the party securing 30% of the first preference vote, the lowest share of the vote the party has seen since February 2009. This represents an overall fall of 5% support in the last two months, and the party needs to regain some impetus among the electorate to stem the decline.

Fianna Fail meanwhile, continue to secure just under a quarter of the first preference vote, leaving the party with 24% of the electorate supporting them this month, a 1% gain since April. This still leaves them below the levels achieved at the start of the year, and is not cause for hope, but rather suggests that they have a relatively solid base of support, as seen is previous polls throughout the past year.

This month however, we asked voters whether they felt the country was heading in the right or wrong direction, as this is a good barometer of the feeling towards the government and the country as whole. It was interesting to see from this analysis that even 27% of those that claim they would vote for Fianna Fail in a future election, still believe the country is going in the wrong direction. This suggests that up to a quarter of those still supporting Fianna Fail may change their mind, if the state of the country does not improve.

Overall, a third (36%) suggest that the country in heading in the right direction, while almost half (47%) feel it is heading in the wrong direction, and the other have no opinion either way. This provides a negative net scores index of -11%, perhaps better than might have been expected. It is interesting to note that men are much more likely to feel the country is heading in the right direction than women, who are far more pessimistic. It is also the case that quite a large proportion of Fine Gael supports (36%) feel the country is heading in the right direction. This in itself could be a concern to the party as it suggests that many of their supporters are not as unhappy with how things stand now, and could be persuaded to return to support the current government parties.

Sinn Fein sees its support rebound to 10%, after a fall of 4% in last month’s poll, that appears to have been somewhat exaggerated. Some of this re-gained ground can of course be put down to the drop in Labour’s support, however it will certainly calm nerves at Sinn Fein that this was a wobble rather than a long term trend.

 

The Green Party support remains relatively stable, with the party securing 5% of the first preference vote. Very much in line with previous poll throughout 2010, and in line with what the party achieved at the last election. A concern for them will be the fact that they historically shed support as we get closer to a general election, and as such they really need to build more support before that event occurs.

 

Finally, Independent candidates regain 9% of the first preference vote, again a figure that has been relatively stable throughout the year.

 

30%

24%22%

10%

5%

9%

Fine Gael Fianna Fáil Labour Sinn Féin Green Party Independents/ Other

If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?(Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)

27%

34%

17%

8%

5%

9%

27%

34%

17%

9%

5%

8%

24%

35%

17%

10%

5%

9%

23%

33%

24%

6% 6%

8%

24%

30%

22%

10%

5%

9%10%

6%

42%

27%

7%

5% Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Green Party Independents/

Other

General election 2007

January 2010

February 2010

March 2010

April 2010

May 2010

If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?(Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)

Dec’05

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would give your first preference vote?(Base: All adults 18+)

Fianna Fáil

Fine Gael

Labour

Sinn Féin

Green Party

PDs

30%

24%

22%

Independent

May’09

Mar’06

Apr’06

May’06

Jun’06

Jul’06

Sep’06

Oct’06

Nov’06

Jan’07

Feb’07

Mar’07

Apr’07

May’07

May’07

May’07

May’07

GE2007

Sep’07

Oct’07

Nov’07

Jan’08

Feb’08

Mar’08

Apr’08

May’08

Jun’08

Sep’08

10%

Oct’08

Nov’08

Jan’09

5%

Feb’09

Mar’09

Apr’09

GE2002

Feb’06

Jan’06

Nov’05

Sep’05

May’09

Sep’09

Sep’09

Oct’09

Nov’09

Jan’10

2006 2007 2008 2009

Mar’10

2010

Feb’10

Apr’10

9%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would give your first preference vote?(Base: All adults 18+)

Fianna Fáil

Fine Gael

Labour

Sinn Féin

Green Party

PDs

30%

24%

22%

Independent

GE2007

Sep’07

Oct’07

Nov’07

Jan’08

Feb’08

Mar’08

Apr’08

May’08

Jun’08

Sep’08

10%

Oct’08

Nov’08

Jan’09

5%

Feb’09

Mar’09

Apr’09

May’09

May’09

Sep’09

Sep’09

Nov’09

Oct’09

Jan’10

2008 2009

Feb’10

Mar’10

2010

Apr’10

9%

May’10

CURRENT FIRST PREFERENCE SUPPORT

Core figures

28th Mar 2010

Excluding undecided

2007 Election Results

% % %

Fine Gael 25 30 27

Fianna Fáil 20 24 42

Labour 19 22 10

Sinn Féin 8 10 7

Green Party 4 5 5

Independents/Others

7 9 6

Undecided 17

If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?(Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)

To what extent do you believe that Ireland is heading in the right or wrong direction at present?(Base: All adults 18+)

-11 -2 -20 -14 -18 -27 -7 -5 14 -5 -16 -8 -8 -20 -6 31 -12 -33 -33

Right Direction

WrongDirection

NET